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Ottawa Senators Expected To Take Alex DeBrincat To Arbitration

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“He doesn’t want to sign here.”

That’s how blunt Bruce Garrioch of Postmedia was today, when discussing Alex DeBrincat’s future with the Ottawa Senators. Garrioch reports that the Senators have elected to take DeBrincat to arbitration, attempting to get the possible 15% reduction on his $9MM qualifying offer.

That does not mean they will necessarily receive it. As suggested by the name, an arbitrator will decide what DeBrincat’s salary in 2023-24 will be, based on his previous contracts and performance.

It was always a risky play, going after the young forward. Ottawa sent the seventh and 39th overall picks in 2022 (plus a 2024 third-rounder) to the Chicago Blackhawks in exchange for DeBrincat last July, with only one season remaining on his contract. The three-year, $19.2MM deal was heavily back-loaded, forcing any RFA qualifying offer to skyrocket to $9MM.

If DeBrincat doesn’t want to play in Ottawa, he could simply take the one-year arbitration decision and hit unrestricted free agency in 2024 as a 26-year-old with two 41-goal seasons under his belt.

The Senators could get up to 15% off that $9MM, meaning the award could be as low as $7.65MM.

Of course, that doesn’t mean he’ll actually be playing in Ottawa next season. The club is in active trade talks to move the young winger and recoup some of the draft capital they spent last year.

Though he didn’t put up 40 goals, DeBrincat still showed off his scoring touch with the Senators. In 82 games, he lit the lamp 27 times and racked up 66 total points, good enough for fourth on the team behind Tim Stutzle, Brady Tkachuk, and Claude Giroux. In a 450-game NHL career, he now has 187 goals and 373 points.

Mackenzie Blackwood Not Expected To Receive Qualifying Offer

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It wasn’t so long ago that Mackenzie Blackwood was considered an up-and-coming star goaltender for the New Jersey Devils. He was in the conversation for the Canadian Olympic team (before the NHL pulled out), finished sixth in a loaded Calder Trophy race, and earned himself a tidy three-year, $8.4MM extension following his first full season at the highest level.

Now, just a few years later, it appears the Devils will cut him loose.

Frank Seravalli of Daily Faceoff writes that Blackwood, a pending RFA, is “far and away the most likely player to not be issued a qualifying offer this spring.” He explains that while there’s a chance the Devils trade his rights to a team that wants to take a chance at rebuilding him, “every team knows [Blackwood] is set to become a UFA otherwise.”

That shouldn’t be a surprise, given the string of injuries and poor performances over the last few seasons. Combine that inconsistency with the fact that qualifying him would require a $3.36MM price tag, and you can see why the Devils would decide to move in a different direction.

It’s not like New Jersey has much room for him, anyway. Not only did they trade for and sign Vitek Vanecek, but Akira Schmid has also emerged as a potential star, and Nico Daws remains in the system as another highly-touted prospect. Even if Blackwood played well, there would be a goalie crunch for the Devils that likely ends with him playing somewhere else.

Still, if Seravalli is right and Blackwood hits the unrestricted free agent market this summer, he will be an interesting target for some teams. Just 26, there is a world where he bounces back and can become a legitimate NHL starter again. Given how cheap he’ll likely come in free agency, it may be a worthwhile gamble for clubs trying to find an answer in net.

East Notes: Eyssimont, Talvitie, Pajuniemi

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Team USA will be without the services of forward Michael Eyssimont for Thursday’s quarterfinal matchup against Czechia as the IIHF announced that he has received a one-game suspension for a kneeing incident in Tuesday’s game against Sweden.  The 26-year-old was a late addition to the team after the Lightning were eliminated in the first round but had suited up all seven games so far.  Eyssimont had two assists in those contests along with 11 shots and 29 penalty minutes in just over 12 minutes per game.  Team USA has one extra forward on their roster, Montreal prospect Luke Tuch who will likely suit up as the extra forward in Eyssimont’s absence.

Elsewhere in the East:

  • Devils prospect Aarne Talvitie has decided to go back overseas as TPS of the Finnish SM-liiga announced that they’ve signed the forward to a two-year contract. The 24-year-old showed some promise at Penn State after being drafted and was quite effective at the World Juniors in 2020.  However, that didn’t translate to much success in the pros as he followed up a 12-goal, 24-point rookie campaign with a three-goal, 14-point sophomore season in 2022-23, resulting in him looking to head back home.  New Jersey can still retain Talvitie’s RFA rights with a qualifying offer in June and he isn’t UFA-eligible until 2026, they might still do so.
  • Pending Rangers RFA Lauri Pajuniemi has decided to try his hand in the SHL as he has joined Malmo on a one-year contract, per a team announcement. The 23-year-old winger had a good sophomore year with AHL Hartford, notching 19 goals (fourth-most on the team) and 38 points (sixth-most) in 68 games while chipping in with six points in nine playoff appearances.  However, Pajuniemi didn’t receive a recall at any point during the regular season.  New York can retain his rights through 2027 by still tendering him a qualifying offer next month.

2023 Offer Sheet Compensation

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In 2019, the offer sheet made its comeback after six years away, with Sebastian Aho signing a five-year, $42.3MM contract with the Montreal Canadiens. That was quickly matched by the Carolina Hurricanes, only to see them take some retribution and nab Jesperi Kotkaniemi two years later.

As we wait for the next offer sheet target, compensation thresholds have been set.

Offer sheet compensation is based on the league’s average salary, and as Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet reports, this year’s thresholds have increased a little more than two percent. Below is the full breakdown, with the contract’s average annual value placing it in one of seven tiers:

$1,415,740 or less No compensation
$1,415,741 to $2,145,061 Third-round pick
$2,145,062 to $4,290,125 Second-round pick
$4,290,126 to $6,435,186 First and third-round picks
$6,435,187 to $8,580,250 First, second and third-round picks
$8,580,251 to $10,725,314 Two firsts, a second and third-round picks
Over $10,725,314 Four first-round picks

It is important to note that any team trying to sign a player to an applicable offer sheet must use their own draft picks for compensation, not ones that have been acquired.

That rules several teams out already from signing high-profile RFAs unless they were to work to reacquire their picks before submitting the contract. An offer sheet’s average annual value is also calculated slightly differently than a standard contract; if the contract is of a length greater than five years, the total salary is still divided by five to determine the AAV.

That would mean a seven-year contract worth $8MM per season would carry an AAV of $11.2MM for the purposes of offer sheet compensation.

Some restricted free agents, like Ottawa’s Shane Pinto, have not accumulated enough time in the NHL to be eligible for an offer sheet. For more information about the details of offer sheets, check out CapFriendly’s FAQ.

Toronto Maple Leafs Hoping To Extend Conor Timmins

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When the Toronto Maple Leafs traded for Conor Timmins, he was barely an NHL player. The Arizona Coyotes were going to waive the oft-injured defenseman, to try and get him to the minor leagues so that he could ramp up his game. After all, the 24-year-old had played just 105 total games since the end of the 2017-18 season.

Since joining the Maple Leafs, though, Timmins has been excellent. While there has still been the odd moment of rust (including a couple of egregious giveaways), the young defenseman has racked up 12 points in 17 games, including his first NHL goal. Playing just over 16 minutes a night, he has fit in exceedingly well in Toronto.

So well, in fact, that the Maple Leafs are now looking to extend him before he reaches restricted free agency this summer according to Chris Johnston on TSN’s Insider Trading. Timmins is currently on a two-year deal that carries a cap hit of $850K, and would need a qualifying offer of $997,500 for the Maple Leafs to retain his rights.

Critically, because he has played so few games because of injury, Timmins won’t be eligible for arbitration this summer. That takes away a lot of his leverage, and makes an extension more likely. The Maple Leafs can reward him with some multi-year security, and lock him into a reasonable cap hit through his remaining RFA years. They could even go longer, into his UFA seasons, though Timmins would be essentially betting against his own health at that point. With the kind of production he has shown so far, there would be a big payday down the road if he can stay on the ice regularly.

Morning Notes: Tinordi, Kane, Boldy, Brassard

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Things might not be going so well on the ice for the Chicago Blackhawks this season and while falling down the standings might be the ideal situation for now, the team does still need to ice a healthy lineup for several reasons. For one, the team will need to assure its prime trade assets, such as Patrick Kane, are healthy in order for the team to trade them and maximize their return. For those who might not necessarily be on the move, the team will still want a mix of veterans, perhaps like Jarred Tinordi, in the lineup, along with their young players who need time and experience to develop.

It appears Chicago might have some news on both of the aforementioned players. According to The Athletic’s Scott Powers, Kane participated in the Blackhawks’ morning skate once again this morning. The winger, who has been skating, missed the team’s game Friday against the Arizona Coyotes and will not play tonight either, adds Powers. Tinordi, who suffered a facial fracture back on December 18th against his former team, the New York Rangers, was also spotted on the ice this morning by NBC Sports’ Charlie Roumeliotis.

  • The Minnesota Wild are dealing with a difficult cap crunch at the moment which has made, and will continue to make, extending their players and bringing in new ones rather challenging. One player the team will certainly have to work in a new contract for is 21-year-old Matt Boldy. The second-year forward is in the final year of his entry-level contract, set to hit the RFA market this summer. Fortunately, as The Athletic’s Michael Russo reports, both the Wild and Boldy’s agent, Brian Bartlett, have begun working on a new deal. Russo adds that talks are in the very early stages, but the expectation is that Boldy’s next contract will be a bridge deal.
  • After a brief recall to the AHL, the Providence Bruins have sent netminder Francois Brassard back to the Maine Mariners of the ECHL, according the AHL’s transactions page.. The 28-year-old has spent the majority of his professional career in the ECHL, but did have a five game stint with the Hartford Wolf Pack last season. He didn’t play for Providence during this recent recall. Brassard did make headlines recently when he scored a goal for the Mariners back in December.

Devils Notes: Trade Deadline Plans, Bratt, Ruff, Holtz, Bahl

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October 24th, at home against the Washington Capitals. That is the last time the New Jersey Devils lost a hockey game. The loss brought the team to 3-3-0 on the season, not ideal, but on the heels of a three-game win streak, things appeared to be looking up despite the loss. Fast forward nearly three weeks and the team finds itself 11-3-0, riding an eight-game win streak heading into tonight’s matchup at home agains the Arizona Coyotes. The team’s recent play now has many believing the rebuilding Devils are finally back to the elite squad they were for much of the 1990’s and 2000’s and that has, in turn, made many wonder what the team’s plans are shaping up to be for the trading season. NJ.com’s Ryan Novozinsky sat down with Devils GM Tom Fitzgerald to discuss that topic and several others.

On making trades and the deadline itself, Fitzgerald said he’d like to see more and to evaluate where the team stands after 20 games and 40 games. The veteran executive added that he prefers to build his teams through the offseason rather than through the trade deadline. Still, Fitzgerald didn’t rule out the possibility of trading assets for rentals, but made clear that would have to be dependent on the team’s situation at the time. As Fitzgerald says, “[i]f I can make a hockey trade that improves our club, then yeah, I’ll explore that.”

  • On star winger Jesper Bratt, who is currently signed to a one-year, $5.45MM contract that will leave him a RFA this offseason, Fitzgerald disagrees with the common labeling of the pact as a “prove it” deal. The GM explained that the negotiation this summer was challenging, but that both sides were interested in a long-term agreement. The one-year deal made sense, given a looming arbitration hearing that likely both sides wanted to avoid and perhaps still far apart in negotiations, an amicable agreement such as this one that gets the job done and allows negotiations to start up again this winter, would be a wise one for team and player. In fact, Fitzgerald reiterated his excitement to restart negotiations on a long-term deal come January. Through 14 games this season, Bratt has 18 points, a 105-point pace over 82 games.
  • One topic Fitzgerald is hesitant to discuss is the contract status of head coach Lindy Ruff. During the dying minutes of New Jersey’s home opener loss to the Detroit Red Wings, fans at the Prudential Center began chanting for Fitzgerald to fire the coach, however that tone has of course changed. Still, Fitzgerald isn’t willing to make a move. The GM applauded the coach’s ability to have the team “explode offensively” just as his Dallas Stars teams were able to, but cautioned the eagerness to extend the veteran coach. Given the team’s rocky start, which came on the heels of two difficult seasons under Ruff, followed by an impressive stretch recently, it’s understandable why the organization would wait to make a decision on the future of their coach.
  • Finally, Fitzgerald and Novozinsky discussed the playing time of prospects, namely forward Alexander Holtz and defenseman Kevin Bahl, who have played four and three games this year, respectively. Fitzgerald explained his reasoning for keeping the pair on the roster despite being able to send both to the AHL, where they could play more regularly, saying that he would like them to be able to adjust to the pace of the NHL game, which they can get in practice. In other words, Fitzgerald explained that he believes both are better off practicing regularly in the NHL than playing regularly in the AHL. The executive made clear that this decision was one made with the development of both players in mind.

Pierre-Luc Dubois: “I Could See Myself In Winnipeg”

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This offseason, Pierre-Luc Dubois could have committed long-term to the Winnipeg Jets. He was a restricted free agent, had just turned 24, and coming off a solid 28-goal season. Instead, he told the team he wasn’t interested in a long-term deal and accepted his $6MM qualifying offer.

That set off plenty of speculation about his future, as Dubois only has one more year of RFA status left after this season. Next summer he could accept another qualifying offer, or go to arbitration for a one-year contract and walk from Winnipeg in the summer of 2024 at the age of 26. His love for the Montreal Canadiens has only been stoked by his agent (and being spotted at the draft), which has suggested to some that he might be waiting to go there in free agency one way or another.

Darren Dreger of TSN caught up with Dubois ahead of Jets training camp this week and asked him about the decision to accept a qualifying offer.

I could see myself in Winnipeg in the future. Just this summer I didn’t have the answer. Everyone wants an answer immediately, that’s kind of the world we’re in. But it’s my life at the end of the day. It is a decision that six, seven, eight years is a long time to bring me toward the end of my career. It’s not just me, it’s also a family that I have. It is a big decision that this past summer I wasn’t ready to make. 

Dubois went on to say how things feel different in Winnipeg this season – in a good way, he clarified – and that he’s excited to take another run at the playoffs with this group.

The third-overall pick from 2016 has scored 102 goals and 239 points in his 361-game career but drove much of this speculation with the way he exited his last team. Uncomfortable with the Columbus Blue Jackets, he seemed to stop trying during his final games there, leading to plenty of ire from the fanbase and a seat on the bench from head coach John Tortorella. The forward was eventually traded to the Jets for Patrik Laine, another star who didn’t seem content with his situation.

For the Jets, knowing where Dubois leans is incredibly important. The team will be moving on from former captain Blake Wheeler and top center Mark Scheifele at some point down the road, and could use a big two-way center to build around for the future. Dubois represents that, and along with Kyle Connor and Nikolaj Ehlers, could keep the team’s offense churning.

If he is going to leave, there is an argument to be made that the Jets should move him as soon as possible. After missing the playoffs last season this could be another lean year, and getting back assets to put in the system would be better than watching him leave in free agency. For now, he’s signed for this year and can’t go anywhere until 2024. Hopefully, for Winnipeg’s sake, his comments about leaving the door open for the Jets are true.

Edmonton Oilers Sign Ryan McLeod

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As expected, the Edmonton Oilers have worked out a deal with restricted free agent Ryan McLeod, agreeing to a one-year, $798K contract. It should come as no surprise, given that McLeod was at the facility yesterday to do his medical testing and general manager Ken Holland explained that he would be on the ice today.

McLeod, 23, had little leverage in negotiations as an RFA without arbitration rights, and will end up accepting a deal lower than his qualifying offer. That was always the risk of pushing talks this late into the summer with a team that has very little cap room, but it appears as though McLeod has decided missing training camp or the first part of the season isn’t worth it in this case.

It’s probably a good move in the long run, given the opportunity that McLeod has in front of him. As the most obvious candidate for the third-line center role, he should be able to carve out a place for himself this season and become indispensable to head coach Jay Woodcroft. If he can play solid defense while improving on the nine goals and 21 points his scored as a rookie, there will be plenty of time to work out a more lucrative contract down the road.

By keeping his cap hit low, he can guarantee his spot on the roster as an everyday player and provide some surplus value to a team that has its eye on the Stanley Cup. When more money is available down the road, the young forward (who only turned 23 yesterday), should be able to capitalize.

Calgary Flames Sign Adam Ruzicka

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Another day, another RFA down. The Calgary Flames have signed Adam Ruzicka to a two-year contract. The deal will be a two-way contract in 2022-23, one-way in 2023-24, and carries a cap hit of $762.5K.

Ruzicka, 23, made it to the NHL as a part-time player last season, suiting up 28 times and scoring ten points. The fourth-round pick has been impressive in the minor leagues and comes with the size and strength that can make him a valuable part of the Darryl Sutter system. With the ability to play center or the wing, he could immediately find a spot with this Calgary team, filling out the bottom-six with some extra scoring ability.

In fact, should he fail to find a spot with the Flames in training camp, Ruzicka would be a prime candidate to be snatched off of waivers. Sending him back to the minor leagues would risk him to the rest of the league, meaning at worst he probably becomes the team’s 13th forward to start.

With Cody Eakin and Sonny Milano in camp on professional tryouts, however, that isn’t guaranteed, meaning he’ll have to perform up to standards in the preseason. The Flames will have a different look to their forward group this year without Matthew Tkachuk, Johnny Gaudreau, or Sean Monahan, but it’s not like those spots are up for grabs.

For the young Ruzicka, a two-year deal at the league minimum provides some stability and actually represents the best way to get into the lineup. With the Flames right up close to the salary cap ceiling, they usually can’t afford to carry expensive extras. Being the cheapest player on the roster has some advantages, and if Ruzicka can establish himself as a full-time player, a bigger deal awaits in restricted free agency two years from now. Of course, if he fails to do so, he could qualify for Group VI unrestricted free agency in the summer of 2024 instead.

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