Snapshots: Draft Rankings, Pilut, Matthews
TSN has released a special top-15 ranking prior to tomorrow’s draft lottery, and Rasmus Dahlin remains the unanimous choice for first overall. Beyond that, the trio of forwards Andrei Svechnikov, Filip Zadina and Brady Tkachuk fill out 2-4 while four other defenseman land in the top ten.
There will undoubtedly be plenty of debate in the coming months, but one thing seems certain. Whoever wins the draft lottery tomorrow night will have Dahlin in their lineup come October. That may seem premature, but scouts seem to agree that he’ll be an impact player from day one. Make sure to tune in between the first and second periods of the Vegas Golden Knights-San Jose Sharks tomorrow night.
- John Vogl of the Buffalo News reports on rumors that Lawrence Pilut has signed with the Buffalo Sabres, adding that a deal can’t be officially announced until the defenseman finishes his stint with the Swedish national team. Pilut, 22, registered 38 points for HV71 in the SHL this season, leading all defensemen. Undersized but talented, he would add some skill to a defense corps in Buffalo that has had trouble moving the puck in recent years.
- Though there had been some rumors about a potential rift between Mike Babcock and Auston Matthews, both parties denied any problems when asked today during their season-ending media availability. Both men are obviously disappointed by the results of Wednesday’s game 7 against the Boston Bruins, but made it clear that nothing had changed in their relationship.
Coyotes To Sign Defenseman Ilya Lyubushkin
With the KHL season over, there continue to be numerous rumors connecting foreign free agents, young and old, with interested NHL teams. Trusted European hockey insider Igor Eronko of NHL.com says that Lokomotiv Yaroslavl defenseman Ilya Lyubushkin is next up. Eronko relays the message that Lyubushkin is set to sign with the Arizona Coyotes.
While no terms of the deal have leaked yet, the 24-year-old Lyubushkin seems to be more of gamble on upside for the Coyotes rather than a player expected to start immediately without issue. The contract will most likely be for relatively little money and may even be of a two-way nature. In 2017-18, Lyubushkin tallied just nine points in 50 games, which was fifth among Lokomotiv defenseman. The stay-at-home defender was more effective in his own zone, posting a +14 rating, but even this was fourth on the team. Lyubushkin’s only noticeable lead on Yarolslavl was in penalty minutes, where he was tops by a wide margin due to his propensity for the physical side of the game.
What the Coyotes likely see in Lyubushkin is a strong, young blue liner who already has extensive pro experience, with five years with Lokomotiv under his belt. A right-shot defenseman under 25 with that much experience doesn’t hit free agency very often and Arizona likely hopes that his more conservative games translates well to the NHL. They could use him sooner rather than later, as Luke Schenn‘s free agency leaves only Jason Demers as a right shot on the Arizona back end. Even in the AHL, there are no better righty options to step in than Lyubushkin, as only college free agent Jordan Gross – a similar style player to Lyubushkin – looks ready to play at the pro level. Of course, this situation could all change this off-season in free agency or if the ‘Yotes land elite defenseman Adam Boqvist in the draft (though they would of course prefer lefty Rasmus Dahlin), but for now Lyubushkin looks to be a sleeper pick to fill a regular role with Arizona in the next year or so.
NHL Central Scouting Releases Final Rankings
The NHL Central Scouting has released their final rankings for the 2018 Entry Draft, listing the best prospects in both North America and the rest of the world. Though Rasmus Dahlin is expected to be taken with the first-overall pick, there is no consensus behind him on who should go second and even less on who should fill out the top ten.
The NHL Draft Lottery will be held on April 28th, when all of the non-playoff teams will find out exactly where they’re picking in June. These lists will help to inform who your team might have a chance at, though obviously anything can happen. The top-5 North American and International skaters are listed below:
North America:
- RW Andrei Svechnikov, Barrie Colts, OHL
- LW Brady Tkachuk, Boston University, NCAA
- RW Filip Zadina, Halifax Mooseheads, QMJHL
- D Evan Bouchard, London Knights, OHL
- D Noah Dobson, Acadie-Bathurst Titan, QMJHL
International:
- D Rasmus Dahlin, Frolunda, SHL (Sweden)
- D Adam Boqvist, Brynas Jr, SuperElit (Sweden)
- RW Vitali Kravtsov, Chelyabinsk, KHL (Russia)
- RW Martin Kaut, Pardubice, Czech Republic
- D Adam Ginning, Linkoping, SHL (Sweden)
The first thing that many people will notice is Tkachuk’s climb to the second ranked player in North America, ahead of the elite goal-scoring talent of Zadina. Tkachuk’s stock has been rising all season thanks to a strong freshman year at BU and a good World Junior tournament. He could be selected as early as second overall should a team feel more comfortable with him than Svechnikov, who dealt with injury and an underwhelming World Junior performance for Russia.
Bouchard and Dobson experienced similar rises, and have now pushed out some of their American contemporaries. Many scouts have players like Quintin Hughes and Oliver Wahlstrom in the top five across North America, but both find themselves on the outside looking in thanks to huge CHL seasons by the big defensemen. Both Bouchard and Dobson project as excellent two-way options, who could move quickly through development systems to make an impact in the NHL.
One of the more eye-catching rankings is Ryan Merkley’s fall to #45 among North American skaters. The risky defenseman has been called both an elite offensive talent and a locker room trouble by prospect gurus, and will have to show that he is willing to be coached before getting an opportunity at the next level.
Riley Sutter, the latest in the powerhouse hockey family to enter the draft has fallen to #80 among North American skaters, and could end up as a mid-round pick come June.
Evening Notes: Updated Draft Odds, Keith
With the season winding down, and teams vying for the better odds of winning the Rasmus Dahlin sweepstakes, the Ottawa Senators took another step in upping their chances at the top pick by losing to Detroit 2-0 this afternoon. With just four games remaining, the Sens are tied with Arizona for the second worst record in the NHL with 65 points. Buffalo still has the best shot at securing the rights for the first overall pick. The NHL released the odds two days ago and with several teams within a few points of one another, the “tank-a-thon” race could be the matter of a few points as opposed to Colorado’s historically bad season in 2016-17. As it stands, here are the odds for the ten worst teams through Saturday evening. Vancouver won in overtime, blowing a 4-1 lead late but still notching two points, which moved them from a 9.5% chance to 8.5%. Please note that Arizona, Buffalo, New York (Rangers and Islanders), Edmonton, and Montreal all play tonight, which could alter the landscape a bit.
Buffalo (18.5%) – 60 points – 5 games remaining
Ottawa (13.5%) – 65 points – 4 games remaining
Arizona (11.5%) – 65 points – 4 games remaining
Montreal (9.5%) – 68 points – 5 games remaining
Vancouver (8.5%) – 69 points – 3 games remaining
Detroit (7.5%) – 71 points – 3 games remaining
Chicago (6.5%) – 74 points – 3 games remaining
NY Islanders (6.0%) – 74 points – 4 games remaining
Edmonton (5.0%) – 74 points – 4 games remaining
NY Rangers (3.5%) – 75 points – 4 games remaining
- The Chicago Blackhawks are going to miss the playoffs for the first time in nearly a decade, and some of that has to do with the Hawks inability to score goals. Duncan Keith has seen his share of struggles and is on pace to set an NHL record for the wrong reasons writes the Chicago Sun-Times Mark Lazerus. After taking 183 shots on net this season, Keith has only gotten the puck past a netminder once. Though his goal scoring has dropped off since he potted 10 back in 2014-15 when Chicago captured the Stanley Cup, nobody saw Keith’s performance going off the rails quite like this. Lazerus writes that if Keith doesn’t score in the final three games, Keith will set the NHL record for lowest non-zero shooting percentage. Lazerus adds that while Keith has been far and away the best defenseman for Chicago this season, he’s even fallen away from what has been his best play. Lazerus attributes this to being one of the only true top four defenseman on the team, something that has bogged down the two-time Norris Trophy winner.
Poll: Who Will Be The Second-Overall Pick In 2018?
With just a handful of games remaining in the 2017-18 season, fans of half the league are already looking forward to the first big date on the offseason calendar. The 2018 NHL Entry Draft will start on June 22nd in Dallas, where Rasmus Dahlin looks to be the first name off the board. The Swedish defenseman is almost unanimously at the top of the rankings at this point, after showing off his huge potential by logging big minutes in the SHL, dominating the World Juniors and even suiting up for his country in the recent Olympics.
But after Dahlin, the decision becomes much tougher. For many months the leading theory was that Andrei Svechnikov, the dominant scoring Russian winger would be the second-overall pick, until he suffered an injury and then was forgettable at the World Juniors. Instead, many eyes turned to Filip Zadina who starred at the tournament and continued to wow audiences in the QMJHL on his way to a 44-goal season and a place on many of the league leaderboards. The 18-year old Czech forward can score from just about anywhere in the offensive zone, and does it with enough flair that everyone in the building takes notice.
Another player stood out in the World Junior tournament though, and that was Brady Tkachuk out of Boston University. Tkachuk had already been quietly climbing the draft boards, showing that he perhaps had just as much talent as his older brother—Calgary Flames forward Matthew Tkachuk—when he put up nine points in seven games and was clearly one of the most dangerous players for the dynamic Team USA. Tkachuk plays a heavy game and is a well-rounded talent that could now go as high as #2 overall, just as TSN’s Craig Button ranked him on his latest board.
Button isn’t alone in thinking Tkachuk has a chance to go second, but he certainly isn’t the consensus. That’s because there simply isn’t one, with other players like Adam Boqvist and Quinn Hughes even getting some love at the top of draft boards around the hockey world. There are several high-end players in this draft who could be franchise-altering talents, and the second-overall pick is still very much undecided. It might be determined by which team is selected in the draft lottery, and moves up (or down) to select right after Dahlin is off the board.
Who do you think will walk up to the podium after hearing his name second at this year’s draft? Will it be one of the trio of forwards, or a second defenseman? Will Dahlin be knocked off his perch entirely, and end up as a (excellent) consolation prize after someone decides they need help up front instead? Cast your vote down below, and be sure to explain your selection in the comment section.
Who will be the second-overall pick?
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Andrei Svechnikov 32% (314)
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Filip Zadina 30% (295)
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Brady Tkachuk 30% (290)
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Rasmus Dahlin 3% (27)
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Adam Boqvist 3% (27)
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Quinn Hughes 2% (16)
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Other (leave in comments) 1% (11)
Total votes: 980
[Mobile users click here to vote!]
Snapshots: Senators, Seattle, Last Place
Even though the NHL trade deadline has passed, the insiders are still hard at work for TSN. During tonight’s Insider Trading segment, Darren Dreger and Pierre LeBrun discussed several topics including the potential dilemma the Ottawa Senators face at the upcoming deadline. LeBrun outlines the situation Pierre Dorion finds himself in, as the first-round pick Ottawa sent to Colorado for Matt Duchene is top-10 protected this season but not in 2019.
LeBrun believes the Senators may consider letting Colorado have this year’s pick if it is in the back half of the top-10, to avoid the risk of giving up the first-overall selection (and the right to draft someone like Jack Hughes) in 2019. Ottawa is currently 28th in the league, but could fall as many as three spots depending on how the draft lottery plays out.
- Dreger also suggested a few names that could be in play to lead the expansion Seattle franchise, including Detroit Red Wings GM Ken Holland, Vegas Golden Knights AGM Kelly McCrimmon, and super agent Pat Brisson. While Seattle is still several years from icing a team, the front office will begin to take shape as soon as the team is officially accepted by the NHL. There will likely be several unexpected names put forward, and it will be interesting to see if the franchise goes with an established name (like Holland) or someone that has little experience running a hockey club but an obvious connection to the game (Brisson).
- At one point this season it looked obvious that the Arizona Coyotes were destined to finish in last once again and have the best chance at Rasmus Dahlin in the draft lottery. Now, that’s not so clear. After Arizona has played well the last few weeks while Ottawa and Buffalo have continued their inconsistency, there is now just a five point gap between the bottom three teams. There is a race for the bottom coming over the last month of the season, and one with another impressive prize. The draft lottery is shaping up to be another heartbreaking even for some teams, even though Filip Zadina, Brady Tkachuk and others aren’t bad consolation prizes.
Buffalo’s Jack Eichel Out Indefinitely With High Ankle Sprain
5:09 PM: Head coach Phil Housley told reporters, including NHL.com’s Joe Yerdon (Twitter link) that Eichel could still return this season. He is, however, expected to miss the next four-to-six weeks at a minimum.
1:05 PM: The Buffalo Sabres will be without their best player as the team announced that Jack Eichel will be out indefinitely with a high ankle sprain. This is the second year in a row he’s suffered this injury, although last year’s sprain was with his left leg. This sprain is with his right leg.
Eichel, the team’s leading scorer suffered the same injury a year ago when he missed the first 21 games of the season and didn’t start his season until Nov. 29 in 2016. A similar timetable could suggest he might miss most if not all of the remainder of the season. The 21-year-old center has played in 55 games this year and has 22 goals and 53 points and was well on his way to posting career highs this season.
From a team outlook, Eichel’s loss shouldn’t affect much as the team plans to be sellers at the deadline and have the second-worst record in the league with a 16-29-10 record. The team should have a good chance of snagging the top pick in the 2018 draft lottery in Rasmus Dahlin.
The Buffalo News’ John Vogl tweets that the team plans to recall 22-year-old center Nicholas Baptiste from the Rochester Americans of the AHL. He has one goal in eight games with the Sabres this year.
The Odds Of Drafting A Superstar And The 2018 NHL Draft
Earlier this week, The Athletic’s Tyler Dellow went to work trying to figure out how the Ottawa Senators could maximize their trade return (subscription required) for Erik Karlsson, should the team decide to move the all-world defenseman prior to the NHL Trade Deadline on February 26th or at least before the 2018 NHL Entry Draft on June 22nd. Dellow surmised that in order to get anywhere near a fair return for Karlsson, Ottawa would need to acquire draft picks that could give them the best chance of finding a “franchise cornerstone” to replace him. The best-case-scenario for the Sens would obviously be to land the #1 overall pick in the lottery and the opportunity to draft the consensus top pick, Karlsson clone Rasmus Dahlin – a scenario that would not even require moving Karlsson. However, with the Arizona Coyotes and Buffalo Sabres likely having better lottery odds and another 12 teams having a chance at the top pick as well, its unlikely that the Senators choose first overall. Dahlin’s generational talent also means the lucky team that lands #1 isn’t moving it, even for Karlsson. So what then is the chance of finding a superstar in the draft? Dellow’s analysis produced these results:
- First pick: 90 percent,
- Second pick: 60 percent
- Third or Fourth pick: 15 percent
- Picks 5-20: 5 percent
- Picks 21-30: 2 percent
- Picks 31-60: 1 percent
- Picks 61+: .07 percent
While there is a considerable drop-off from the first pick to the second and the second to the third, it’s clear that picks #2 and #3 still hold immense value. Dellow goes on to describe the infrequency with which those picks are moved, citing Alexei Yashin-for-Jason Spezza and the drafting of Henrik and Daniel Sedin are rare recent examples. Dellow’s thesis continues that the current Vancouver Canucks could be a rare team willing to part with a high pick, if it meant landing Karlsson.
However what if Karlsson isn’t traded by the Draft – a situation that is far more likely than the media would make it out to be – would the normally untouchable top three picks be back off the table? Obviously, the results of the draft lottery matter immensely and the #1 pick will surely not be moved this year. More likely than not, #2 is going nowhere as well. Yet, the status of the 2018 draft class leads to much intrigue over the #3 pick, which historically has a 15% chance of landing a superstar. Unlike past years, there is no consensus second-best player in 2018. In some order, Nico Hischier and Nolan Patrick were going 1-2 in 2017, as were Auston Matthews and Patrik Laine in 2016, and no one was going right behind Connor McDavid other than Jack Eichel in 2015. This year’s crop offers a situation unlike the last few seasons, wherein Dahlin is guaranteed to go first overall – and will be off the draft board of everyone but the lottery winner before the draft even begins – but the following picks are unpredictable. At #2, it could be Russian sniper Andrei Svechnikov, sleek Czech forward Filip Zadina, big, skilled Americans Brady Tkachuk or Oliver Wahlstrom, or a D-needy team with the second pick could even go off the board for a defenseman.
The decision on the second overall pick in 2018 will undeniably result in the top player on many teams’ board being selected, but the top player on many other teams’ board falling to #3. If that team at third overall was hoping to take the player selected at #2, now things could get interesting. According to Dellow’s results, the team at #3 has now lost a 45% chance of finding their next franchise player, but could trade out of the pick and still end up with one (or more) top 20 pick(s), each with a 5% chance of becoming a star, as well as possibly an established pick or player. If you put trust into a model like Dellow’s, a deal like this becomes much more about math and odds than simply taking the risk of trading back out of disappointment with the draft order.
Going back to the Karlsson-to-Vancouver hypothetical, imagine that the Canucks land the #3 overall pick while the Senators have a pick in the 5-20 range, either by the lottery or an additional pick from an upcoming trade. Vancouver hypothetically wanted Zadina, who went #2, while the top player on Ottawa’s board was Tkachuk (or maybe a defenseman like Adam Boqvist). Vancouver could, as Dellow proposes, offer the Sens the third pick – and a 15% chance at a star – and a prospect like Olli Juolevi, the fifth overall pick in 2016 – who holds a 5% chance of becoming a star himself – as part of a larger package for Karlsson and a first. Ottawa nets a 20% chance of adding a cornerstone player, including at least one potential replacement on the blue line, and Vancouver holds onto a 5% chance of finding a star of their own with the later first rounder. The 10% loss for Vancouver is more than made up by the gain of a bona fide star in Karlsson. Could a deal like this happen? For sure. Will it? Probably not, but Dellow’s analysis of draft pick values and a seemingly volatile draft board in 2018 helps to illuminate the possibilities of some fascinating, unprecedented deals early on at the 2018 Draft.
Snapshots: Rangers, Dahlin, Johnson
The New York Rangers are currently just a single point out of a playoff spot, and two points out of second place in the Metropolitan Division, but according to Larry Brooks of the New York Post that won’t make them buyers at the deadline. In fact, Brooks writes that the Rangers are preparing to “blow it up” and are willing to deal Ryan McDonagh and Mats Zuccarello along with their rental options.
It’s not the first time we’ve heard McDonagh’s name mentioned, as he currently sits tenth on the TSN Trade Bait board, but is still might come as a surprise. The Rangers captain has logged 24 minutes a night again this season, and currently has 24 points through 45 games. While he may not match his career-high of 14 goals, he’s certainly a bargain at his $4.7MM cap hit this year and next.
- Welcome to “the Rasmus Dahlin draft” writes TSN insider Bob McKenzie, who released his early rankings for the 2018 NHL Entry Draft today. Dahlin tops the board like everywhere else, but McKenzie’s rankings do differ from some of the other leading sources. Perhaps most notably is Ryan Merkley at #11, as the dynamic Guelph defenseman has slipped to the back half of the first round in most other rankings. McKenzie explains why, noting Merkley’s perceived attitude problem and temperament as potential reasons for his fall.
- Darren Dreger was on TSN 1050 radio today, and said that he’d be “shocked” if the Toronto Maple Leafs’ GM Lou Lamoriello hadn’t called on Jack Johnson from the Columbus Blue Jackets. As noted in our most recent live chat, Johnson does seem like a pretty good fit for the Maple Leafs down the stretch as he tries to secure a long-term contract this summer. Johnson is looking for an opportunity to play a big role somewhere, and the Maple Leafs have had a revolving door in the back half of their defense corps. Still, with Morgan Rielly and Nikita Zaitsev returning from injury soon and Travis Dermott showing he’s ready for the NHL, the Maple Leafs aren’t guaranteed to be on the market any longer.
Morning Notes: Buffalo, Prospects, Offside
After another disappointing loss at the hands of the Winnipeg Jets last night, the Buffalo Sabres were back on the ice today trying to right the ship. Unfortunately, things didn’t go so smoothly. According to Amy Moritz of the Buffalo News, Zach Bogosian was helped off the ice unable to put weight on his left leg.
Not only that, but tempers appear to be flaring as according to Bill Hoppe of Buffalo Hockey Beat, Evander Kane and Justin Falk got into a shoving match with the latter calling the former “selfish.” Things haven’t gone according to plan for the Sabres this year, who are now in the midst of a five-game losing streak and just three points ahead of the Arizona Coyotes for last place in the NHL.
- ISS Hockey and Jeff Marek of Sportsnet each released their new draft rankings today, with both agreeing that Rasmus Dahlin has solidified his position as the no-doubt first-overall pick in June’s draft. After that though, the lists diverge with Marek leaving Andrei Svechnikov in the second spot while ISS has moved Brady Tkachuk into that position. The remaining top 10 is a mixed bag, and should make for an incredibly interesting draft day with teams having very different boards.
- While the entire league is wondering whether the current offside review process will stay the same after another “skate blade incident” for the Edmonton Oilers last night, Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic reports that NHL Director of Hockey Operations Colin Campbell will bring up the issue once again at the GM meetings in March. There is a growing belief that the rule should be changed to that of a endzone-type plane that extends straight up, so that a player’s skate doesn’t necessarily need to be touching the ice to be onside.