Pro Hockey Rumors Originals

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include what’s next for the Flames, an underachieving winger in Boston, rebuilding New Jersey, projecting the most prominent player moved at the trade deadline, the futures of Ralph Krueger and Jared Bednar, thoughts a Minnesota forward who has produced in the minors yet hasn’t had much of an opportunity, looking at the free agent goalie market, and a first in the history of this mailbag column (spanning more than four years).  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s piece.

MoneyBallJustWorks: What do you do if you’re the Flames? I know the Markstrom injury is unfortunate but this season must be a disappointment as of now.

Clearly, this question came before Thursday night’s coaching change but I can safely say my answer wouldn’t have been hiring Darryl Sutter on a three-year contract though his style may wind up being the kick that the team ultimately needs.  But with that having now been done, let’s look ahead past that.

I’d like to see their top four defensemen get a bit more playing time; they don’t have anyone at 22 minutes a game.  Having some balance isn’t necessarily a bad thing but I don’t think giving Nikita Nesterov 16 minutes a game is the best usage for him, especially with his struggles in his own end.  On the flip side, the fourth line has been underused; bringing Glenn Gawdin in to play less than six minutes a game is really pointless.  The fourth line can’t be that much of a liability nowadays.

Unfortunately, this is not a season where Canadian teams will be able to trade their way out of their troubles.  The two-week quarantine for players coming from the other 24 teams is going to act as more of a deterrent now than it did earlier in the year and while it doesn’t make a trade impossible, it doesn’t make one likely.  What they have now is what they’re going to need to work with moving forward but if they can make a small move, I’d look for a third-pairing blueliner and some upgraded forward depth by the deadline.

I’m intrigued to see how Sam Bennett fares under Sutter; I think he will benefit a lot from the change.  They’ll play with more of an edge now and I think that will suit Bennett just fine.  Jacob Markstrom returning will certainly help as well.  This isn’t a year where Calgary is going to contend but at the same time, they’re within striking distance of a playoff spot and the teams directly ahead of them have their own flaws.  After this coaching change, it’ll just be small tweaks and that may very well be enough to get in.

@jrice521: I don’t see how the Bruins keep DeBrusk at the trade deadline. His production is virtually nothing. One goal to date on the season. Shouldn’t they try to pry Virtanen out of Vancouver? They probably both need a change of scenery!

There’s no denying that Jake DeBrusk is having a tough year and he is definitely a change of scenery candidate as a result.  So too is Jake Virtanen and in theory, the idea has a bit of merit.

From Boston’s perspective, Virtanen has the weaker track record and a lengthier history of inconsistent play so there is some risk.  But they also would benefit from the cheaper cap hit in terms of freeing up a bit more flexibility to add another piece and also would appreciate the cheaper qualifying offer in the 2022 offseason.

However, that same reason is why Vancouver doesn’t do the deal.  Virtanen’s $3.4MM price tag next season (in terms of salary plus signing bonus) was a big reason the trade talks with Anaheim didn’t go anywhere and DeBrusk’s pay checks in at $4.85MM next year.  I suspect Vancouver’s interest in Danton Heinen was more centered around the expiring contract where he could be non-tendered with the team then getting out of that final year of Virtanen’s obligation.  While DeBrusk is the more proven player, that extra cost in terms of real money and cap space isn’t going to go over well, especially since big-ticket deals for Elias Pettersson and Quinn Hughes are on the immediate horizon.

This is a season where quite a few of the trades made in the coming weeks will likely involve swapping change of scenery players so this type of move makes some sense on paper but the economic element probably stops it from happening, at least straight up.

SpeakOfTheDevil: What sort of adjustments do the Devils need to make to finally get out of this ongoing rebuild? I honestly want to know how you would make this team better.

Most teams in the league have some sort of identity.  Some are defense-first that rely on the goaltending, others have high-end offenses.  Some really like to push the pace.  I honestly have no idea what New Jersey’s identity is.  They’ve been trying to make incremental upgrades to deepen their roster which is an okay starting spot but at some point, you have to pick a direction and build around that.  They seem to want to build around their attack so I’ll make my plan based on that.

Goaltending – There isn’t much I’d do here.  I liked the Corey Crawford signing to give Mackenzie Blackwood some insurance and it’s not New Jersey’s fault that Crawford had a last-minute change of heart.  Adding another similar veteran next year would be ideal.

Defense – Having puck-movers that can accelerate the attack is all well and good but they need someone who can actually defend in their own end as well.  I liked the Ryan Murray addition for that reason and leveraging their cap room to do something like that again would work.  Will Butcher is an expensive extraneous piece right now; if they’re content with their puck-movers, try to flip him for a more stable defensive defender.  Their atrocious penalty kill (which sits at 62.5% heading into Saturday’s game) will improve as a result.

Forwards – Sell out for high-end skill on the wing.  It’s great to have seven or eight wingers capable of scoring double-digit goals.  But those players shouldn’t be on the top two lines.  Unfortunately, their only true top-six winger is Kyle Palmieri, a pending UFA.  They’re set down the middle with Jack Hughes, Nico Hischier, and Pavel Zacha.  But for them to truly reach their ceiling, they need wingers that are capable of producing consistently and they don’t have that.  I recognize that they’re not a free agent destination but in this cap environment, them having more cap room than most counts for a lot.  And if they can’t add an impact UFA, then leverage that cap space into adding an impact player; don’t settle for another Andreas Johnsson.

There’s a decent young core foundation in place with their centers, Blackwood, and Ty Smith.  That’s a good start but until they can supplement them with impact wingers and not just above-average role players, they’re going to spin their tires.  Unfortunately for GM Tom Fitzgerald, accomplishing that is something that’s easier said than done but they can’t have another offseason of incremental upgrades if they want to take that next step.

DarkSide830: Biggest name dealt at the deadline?

I know Taylor Hall is open to staying in Buffalo and the Sabres would like to have him back but I think it’s Hall that will be the biggest name moved.  Given how much the 29-year-old has struggled this season, it’s hard to see the two sides agreeing on a price point for a long-term extension that both sides will be happy with.  Hall went to the Sabres in part to try to prove that he’s still a top-line player with an eye on securing the lucrative long-term contract he couldn’t get in October.  Now, he needs to get out of Buffalo to accomplish the very thing he signed there to do.

From Buffalo’s perspective, they’re almost certainly missing the playoffs again so there’s no reason to hold onto him if there’s no extension in place.  If they’re willing to retain, they should be able to land a decent return (not quite what the Devils got a year ago, however) as $4MM for a second-liner which is more of where he should be valued isn’t impossible.  The Sabres will need to take a contract back but there’s a suitable trade to be made.

LarryJ4: Does it look as clear to you as it does to me that the Sabres GM Kevyn Adams is completely handcuffed by Pegula when it comes to Krueger? If you had to choose between the next coach for Buffalo, who would it be? I’m hearing more Gallant than Boudreau but I think with the mix we have Boudreau would be better. Oh, and a goalie is needed as a stop-gap?

I don’t think Adams is being handcuffed by ownership when it comes to Krueger.  Adams has been on the job for all of 22 games and doesn’t have the prior front office experience to have a better feel for things.  When you’re wading through your first experiences, the logical step is to ere on the side of caution.  In this case, it’s keeping Krueger around and trying to be patient.  He can wait to make the move in the offseason if he needs to where he’d have a slightly better foundation to draw from or if things keep going off the rails, sometime between now and then.

I’m not sure Gerard Gallant takes the Buffalo job if it was to be offered to him.  This is not a situation that looks overly desirable from the outside given the turnover they’ve had and the fact they’re perpetually not improving.  He can afford to be selective.  Bruce Boudreau does make some sense though.  This team can’t score and he has been known to get his teams to at least average in that regard.  Even that would be an improvement.  Is Boudreau the coach to take Buffalo back to the promised land?  No, but he’d lay a better foundation for whoever comes after him.  If the Sabres were to make a coaching move, he would make some sense.

If Adams thinks they can stay in the playoff race, then yes, a stopgap goalie needs to be added.  I was shocked that they passed on Alex Stalock as he felt like the perfect fit though given what he just went through, maybe there were some lingering health concerns on Buffalo’s end.  But if they’re going to throw in the towel and sell, I’d give Jonas Johansson a longer look.  Can he be the future backup?  Now is as good a time as any to try and find out.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Ottawa’s slow start, Philadelphia’s defensive concerns, Boston’s trade deadline approach, comments on several young centers, David Quinn’s future with the Rangers, plus Pittsburgh’s defense situation and their quiet start to the season.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

JDGoat: Who is on the hotter seat right now, D.J. Smith or Pierre Dorion?

Can I choose neither of them?  What has played out in Ottawa so far this season can’t be considered all that surprising.  Yes, Matt Murray’s struggles early on were a bit odd which contributed to them getting run out of the rink a few too many times but he has been better since then and the Sens have been more competitive the last couple of weeks.

Heading into this season, everyone knew there were going to be growing pains.  There are six teams in the North Division that have win-now aspirations with Ottawa being the one with an eye on the future.  The divisional reshuffling didn’t do them any favors, that’s for sure.  Dorion has been able to get this far in his rebuilding plan so there’s not much point in changing course now.  Smith has been the head coach for less than 100 games with a roster that isn’t up to par with that of the top teams in the division.  That’s hardly enough time to assess whether he’s really the right fit for the job.

It’s not all doom and gloom for the Senators though.  I think they can be one of the more under-the-radar teams in the second half of the season as their many youngsters settle in and start getting adjusted to day-to-day NHL life.  I expect they’ll win more than many expect down the stretch.  That will be a better measuring stick for Smith’s coaching ability and how Dorion’s long-term plan is coming along.

DarkSide830: What’s Philly’s best solution to their defense issues?

Short of dragging Matt Niskanen away from his ice fishing in retirement, you mean?  When everyone is healthy, I’d try to limit the number of games that Erik Gustafsson and Shayne Gostisbehere play.  They’re both capable offensive weapons but neither are particularly adept in their own end.  You can get away with one in but if both are, they run the risk of some defensive issues (against the upside of a bit more production).

I don’t think there is much they necessarily can do.  Travis Sanheim and Philippe Myers are still pretty young and there are going to be growing pains.  Even Ivan Provorov’s 24, the same age as Myers.  There’s still some defensive development that’s going to come when the core of the back end is as young as it is.  They basically have to ride it out.

What will help is that Sean Couturier’s back.  He’s not a defenseman but any time you add a Selke winner to your lineup, good things are going to happen.  Couturier knows the defensive coverages and knows where to be but perhaps more importantly, where others should be and he can call that out on the ice.  There’s a lot of value in that.  Philadelphia undoubtedly missed his offensive production while he was out but he’ll be a huge difference-maker defensively as well which will give the Flyers a big boost.

VonBrewski: Much to my surprise, the Bruins have done well out of the gate. So, I have two questions. Can they trade John Moore to free up cap space? And who do they target at the trade deadline? Thank you for what you do.

You’re not going to like the answer to the first question.  No, they can’t move Moore to free up cap space.  He’s best utilized as a sixth or seventh option.  In this marketplace, that’s someone making $1MM or so, not $2.75MM for this year plus two more.  That’s just too much money for a depth player and even if they retained half of the contract, they’re not going to find many takers.  Could they move him for another similarly-priced underachiever?  There’s a slightly higher chance of that happening but the likeliest scenario is he sticks around.

As for who they target at the deadline, that’s hard to call at this point considering how few teams are out of the playoff picture at this point.  There’s Ottawa, Detroit, and, well, that’s about it.  Every other team is within five points of a playoff spot so right now, we don’t know who most of the sellers will be.

In terms of what I’d be expecting GM Don Sweeney to look for, I’d still have a proven left defenseman at the top of the list.  They’re getting good results from Jakub Zboril and Jeremy Lauzon which lessens the short-term need but if you’re a team with eyes on a long playoff run, can you have two near-rookies in big roles?  I’m sure they’d feel more confident with a more proven option.  Beyond that, there’s still a need for secondary scoring help despite the fact they’ve tried to address it so many times already.

One element that really works in Boston’s favor is the salary cap.  Many contenders are right up against it while they are pegged to be nearly $3MM under it.  Come trade deadline time, that’s worth roughly $13MM in full-season cap hits which would give them a huge boost in terms of being able to actually afford a big-ticket acquisition without having to offset money somehow.  Lots can change and injuries can cut into that in a hurry but the benefit to not adding much in the offseason is that they’ll have the ability to make some in-season pickups without much difficulty.

The Duke: What are your short- and long-term thoughts regarding PLD, Kotkaniemi, Necas and Ingram/Nashville’s goaltending?

Pierre-Luc Dubois – I don’t think this was the preferred destination he had in mind when he wanted out but I like the fit with Winnipeg.  He was pushed into the 1C role by default in Columbus but would have been better served with a more proven option in front of him to help him develop.  He’ll get that benefit now with Mark Scheifele ahead of him on the depth chart.  It may not be great for his short-term numbers but in the long run, he’ll be better prepared for his next chance at being the top center.  I don’t expect that opportunity will be with the Jets though.

Jesperi Kotkaniemi – The exploits of his linemate in Tyler Toffoli have helped keep the spotlight off of him in what has been a fairly quiet start to the season with just a goal and six assists in 14 games.  He has progressed a bit from last season’s disaster which Montreal has to be content with although they quietly were likely hoping for a bigger leap on the offensive front.  He’s still one of the youngest players in the league despite this being his third season (he’s still only 20) so there is plenty of development to go.  I’m not overly confident that he can become Montreal’s top center of the future which they were hoping for when they drafted him third overall in 2018 but with the acquisition and emergence of Nick Suzuki, there’s at least a bit less pressure on Kotkaniemi.  If Suzuki eventually becomes that 1C and Kotkaniemi falls in behind him, the Canadiens should be in good shape.

Martin Necas – He has slowly and steadily progressed so Carolina has to be pleased with what they’re getting from him early on with his ice time up around 18 minutes per game.  A player four years removed from being a first-round pick being in the top six is a more than acceptable development timeline.  I do, however, wonder about his long-term position.  He was supposed to be a key center of the future but things have changed since then.  Sebastian Aho has adapted perfectly to playing down the middle, Jordan Staal is still around, and they added Vincent Trocheck at the trade deadline.  While the latter came at a price tag that was too good to pass up on, there’s an opportunity cost in that it takes away reps at center for Necas.  I’d like to see them find a way to move him to center at times this season, even if it means dropping him down to the third line as, from a long-term development standpoint, they’d be better off if he’s at least comfortable at center in the NHL.

Connor Ingram – While not having him as their insurance policy hurts (he’s in the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program), I don’t think it changes much in the short-term.  Pekka Rinne and Juuse Saros were going to be the tandem one way or the other this season.  Long term, Yaroslav Askarov is the starter of the future and that still hasn’t changed.  I suspect they were hoping Ingram could be the backup next year and that could still happen – these program entries don’t come with defined absence times so it is possible that he’s back at some point this season.  If not, it pushes them to ask Rinne to stick around for another year or they turn to free agency for a veteran replacement.

MZ311: If NYR ends up firing Quinn (big mistake if they do), who do you see as the long-term successor?

First, I don’t expect David Quinn to be let go.  While the acquisition of Artemi Panarin and the late-season playoff push have raised expectations, this is still not a team that’s quite ready to contend just yet.  There are still plenty of young players going through the ups and downs of developing at the NHL level.  That’s not necessarily a coaching flaw but a reality that most young players face, even the higher-end prospects.  I believe John Davidson and Jeff Gorton are patient enough to recognize that and if they are, there’s little reason to make a coaching change.

But for the sake of the question, let’s say they do.  Is a veteran like Mike Babcock or Bruce Boudreau a good fit for a team that’s still developing a lot of youngsters?  Probably not.  Gerard Gallant is still out there but even he’s a coach that probably benefits from a more veteran-laden team.  None have particularly long shelf lives either and the Rangers will want someone for longer than that instead of a quick fix.  I believe Kris Knoblauch, their coach at AHL Hartford, is their preferred eventual replacement for Quinn but this is only his second season and neither of them are full campaigns.  With Knoblauch not being ready though, it’s hard to see Quinn being let go anytime soon.

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