The concept of the time value of money is a very common one in investing. Your money is worth a certain amount today but ideally grows over time. A similar philosophy applies in the NHL when it comes to cap space – $1MM at the start of the season can be worth around $4MM at the trade deadline so teams wisely try to save what they have, hope for minimal injuries, and that would put them in a position to add a useful piece or two for the stretch run.
The end result of such a philosophy is a trade market that has basically resembled that of Major League Baseball since the start of December, notwithstanding a couple of minor AHL swaps last week. (If you don’t follow MLB, they’ve been in a lockout since then with no trades allowed.) For the most part, that’s probably not going to change over the next few weeks as many contenders have cap space ranging from none to minimal with a hope that between now and the deadline, it could improve to a level that could be considered as slightly better than nothing. Such is life in a league where half the teams are technically over the cap and are using LTIR to get into compliance.
That provides an opportunity for a contender that’s fortunate to have cap space to make a move now to get a leg up on their competition. Only one such team in the top seven in the NHL standings heading into Monday’s games is in that situation and that’s the New York Rangers.
So far, they’ve been linked to many different players with former Ranger J.T. Miller being the headliner. Some of the others are on expiring contracts and there needs to at least be a mixture as new contracts for Mika Zibanejad and Adam Fox add $11.725MM to next season’s payroll compared to what they’re making now. With nearly $71MM in commitments to 16 players per CapFriendly, there is some room for a longer-term addition but some of their pickups will need to be rentals as well.
Right now, they’re pegged to finish the season with $7.056MM in cap space, an amount that’s equivalent to $17.2MM today and $35.2M at the trade deadline. Yes, they have some bonuses to factor in but the struggles of Alexis Lafreniere and Kaapo Kakko limit that somewhat. Fox will reach his $850K but his bonuses should be the only ones of any sort of consequence. So if you’re working backward, New York needs to have at least $850K in room at the end of the season. Even if you add a few hundred thousand as a safety net for some of their other youngsters and factor in that they’re just carrying the minimum-sized roster due to the All-Star break, we’re only looking at holding back around 15-20% of their end-of-season cap room and a few million off the present value of contracts they can acquire right now.
That means that New York could add comfortably more than $10MM in salaries today to their roster. That’s enough to add an impact player up front and some depth in the bottom six which is an area of concern for the Rangers at the moment with even perhaps having enough left over to shore up their back end. There’s a reasonable chance that will be about all of the spending they’re going to do between now and the deadline; no one should be expecting GM Chris Drury to bring in five or six new players between now and March 21st. That would be asking a lot of any team.
In that sense, there isn’t much of a need for them to wait. While many contenders will have to wait until more time elapses resulting in less salary to take on, the Rangers can go after their targets aggressively now. Waiting until closer to the deadline will bring in more contenders for their desired players which could drive the price tag higher. With that in mind, there’s a case to make that paying a little more now to get the player is worth doing, ensuring they get their targets and getting several weeks of extra games out of them in the process.
Patience is often a good characteristic but for New York, the time may be right to be aggressive and strike early on the trade front. With their cap situation, they’ll be a team to keep an eye on in the coming weeks.
I don’t trust Drury
No one does.
Hot take
Bo Horvat
Makes them instantly dangerous and contenders. Playoff stud and leader.
Chytil, Lundkvist, pick.
Heard it hear first folks.
Van aren’t going to give you Horvat fir this package, your dreaming.
They have the assets to get JT Miller done, which would also make sense going into next year as his salary is similar to Strome’s, who will probably walk. JT playing 3rd line center (or moving to first line RW) would help Laf, who needs other talent on that 3rd line to produce. Wish they’d call in Kravstov to give a bit of a punch offensively in the bottom six. Defense and goalie are solid – no need there, just C and RW.
How about Miller & Horvath throw Strome in….
You do realize Strome is UFA at end of year right?
What’s he add to the package fir Vancouver?
JT Miller did not leave New York on a good note. He got put in that deal to Tampa because he was a problem in the locker room. He is not coming back.
(nods to bruin4ever) Yeah, it drives me up a tree how many people fall down the rabbit hole of expecting the other team to deal stars for their stable sweepings. Miller’s the big prize of the deadline market, and the team that gets him is the one to offer a serious overpay. This is going to take an impact player with term, a top young prospect and a first rounder.
I do, thus “similar to Strome’s, who will probably walk.”
I’m suggesting that Miller, for next year with a similar base salary, could slot in for a year as a replacement.
Nha- you are so right, some fans think that every other GM has no clue who players are and their favourite team can trade a career 4th liner for a first line player – oh and if their team has no cap – no problem that other team just eats 50% of contract to help out!
Clueless!
I have the perfect guy for the Rangers. Reilly Smith.
Reilly Smith wouldn’t come that expensive, and he’s a solid player who’d do well with most any team. I think Vegas will regret unloading him.
Vegas may be forced to move players to be cap compliant. Smith fits the bill because of his pending free agency and cap hit.
He has a decent record of point production in playoffs but don’t think he’s irreplaceable. Adding Eichel to center depth is a bigger plus than what Smith adds at wing.
Reviewing the comments above:
What makes you believe you can’t trust Drury? He has done an exceptional job so far
Not sure why everyone thinks JT Miller would help. Are you moving Lafreniere or Kakko out of the top 6. Neither of those guys are 3rd line players. Miller becomes a rental as he will be looking for 6M and term this summer. The two trades the rangers should be seeking are Cullye, Lundqvist, Kravtsov and Nemeth for Chycrun and a 2nd (Arizona has 5) and picking up Chris Tierney from Ottawa as a rental to secure the 3rd line. Move BC to the 3rd line right wing where he belongs. Cullye is expendable with what we have on left wing now and Othman. A 3rd pair of Chycrun and Schneider will help cut down Fox’s ice time. 26 mins a game is too much. You could take him off the PK. Rangers are not winning the cup this year but they are getting close. Keep the train moving but don’t be giving up valuable young talent for rentals to hopefully win a couple of rounds this year.
Miller has 1 more year of term….Kinda upsets your take here.
LaF isn’t exactly going to move ahead of Kreider or Panarin anytime soon. And while I agree he’s not a 3rd line center either, it is what it is.
Chychrun +3rd for Kaapo, K’Andre, Kravtsov
gives NYR 2 less RFA’s to sign, solidifies the D for a few years.
Then add a forward like Reilly Smith, Andrew Copp, Kessel.
Rangers are already 3 pairings deep on D. Moving two RWs and a D for another D isn’t going to help. As for Kessel, he’s a locker room nightmare.
Maybe they get Chariot and Lehkonen for Kaapo + 2023 3rd
This would give NYR more cap flexibility next year because Chariot walks.
The conundrum the Rangers face is that any player they acquire with term will further complicate their Cap situation next year. It might be prudent to ship out an RFA that requires a raise for the player they receive. Kaapo, Hajik and Georgiev fall into that category. Doubtful JT Miller is wanted as he did not part well from NY when traded to Tampa.
They have lots of assets. They have cap issues starting next year. They will likely tell Strome he has a deadline to accept an extension. If he does not, they tell him they are trading from someone (probably Miller) who will be 2C next year. If he signs, then they cannot afford Miller. I don’t think they will jump in too early either. They want to see if Laffy clicks on the top line. I think they want to give Chytil another shot on the 2nd line. If, and its a big if, those guys work out and Strome signs, the top six are set for years to come. The 3rd line next year would a combo of Barron, Blais, Hunt, Goodrow and Gauthier. One of them will join Reaves and a re-signed Rooney on the 4th line. Future D pairs are Fox/Lindgren, Trouba/Miller and Schneider with either Jones or Roberston. Under this scenario, the tradeline goals would be to build a 3rd line and bolster the third D pair. Smith, a C in the Giroux/Domi mold, a D in the form of either Giordano or Chariot. The centerpieces would include Kaako, Kravstov and Lundqvist. Nemeth, maybe Gauthier and picks are supplemental pieces. Cuyllie and Othman join the team in two years, replacing Reaves and Hunt who would be UFAs. Should keep them under the cap
I like the way you’re thinking but would like somehow to keep Kravstov…..I like what I saw in his 20 game tryout. Always in the right spot but still a little awkward with his skill. He needs 8-12 minutes ice time and a working ear.
He reminds me of Kovalev a little with the way he dances with the puck.
Strome will probably walk at the end of the year and the Rangers don’t need to move him now since they have tons of cap space for the remainder of the year. Strome will want what they can’t offer, this only a 2 year deal that he’s currently on.
I can see a move for RHN and move Georgiev, Lndqvist and Kravstov for him. Answers the call this year to pair a 3rd line center with LaF while backfilling Strome when he goes into FA.