Pro Hockey Rumors Originals

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include what the Rangers could do at the trade deadline, potential returns for Philadelphia’s pending free agents, Arizona’s situation with Jakob Chychrun, and much, much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

pitmanrich: With the Rangers exceeding expectations for the season and the likes of Kreider, Fox, Shesty, and Panarin at the top of their games, what does Chris Drury do at the trade deadline? Add rentals or add players with term knowing that more key players need re-signing within the next couple of years?

I think their interest will skew more towards rental players or at least those that aren’t signed for much longer beyond this season.  With new deals for Adam Fox and Mika Zibanejad adding nearly $12MM to the books for 2022-23, a lot of the flexibility they have now won’t be there in a few months let alone to the contracts you may be thinking of (Alexis Lafreniere, Kaapo Kakko, K’Andre Miller, etc).  Ryan Strome’s free agency looms large and that’s the one spot I think they could prove me wrong as getting another impact center locked up long-term is worth creating some possible cap challenges down the road.  And no, J.T. Miller for one extra season isn’t what I’d be targeting unless they think there’s an extension that can be done.

They have the cap space (this season) plus the draft pick and prospect capital to make a splash and adding a key player certainly wouldn’t hurt.  That said, I wouldn’t be surprised if the bulk of their moves are a little quieter.  A top-four defender would really go a long way towards slotting some of their defenders in more optimal spots in the lineup and there is definitely room to make at least a couple of additions to the bottom six.  Adding a strong checker/penalty killer would be wise for matchup purposes in the playoffs, a middle-six center is always a good thing for a contender to add, and a secondary scorer on the wing as an injury hedge are all good options.  They could probably afford to do all of these things by waiting until the deadline but I don’t think they’ll add that many players.  There will be some new faces at MSG though but I wouldn’t be shocked if most of them are free agents in July.

DarkSide830: What would realistic returns look like for certain Flyers players? Claude? Braun? Jones? Maybe Provy?

@SSBRealtor: What could the Flyers realistically get for ’G’ if they traded him?  A decent prospect?

GBear: It would seem that the Flyers will move Giroux at the deadline, so what teams do you see being interested in him and what will the asking price look like?

Let’s combine all of the Flyers stuff together.  Before getting to Giroux, I’ll touch on the other players first.

Justin Braun – Third-round pick.  He definitely can help a third pairing and on the penalty kill but he has his limitations and is probably a sixth defender on a lot of contenders.  He’s also a right-shot defender in a marketplace that doesn’t have a lot of those.  I don’t see anyone going higher than a third but if a few teams are willing to pay that third-rounder, perhaps they can squeeze a later pick or depth prospect as well.

Martin Jones – Late-round pick if he moves at all.  How many playoff-bound teams look at him as an improvement on their current backup?  It’s a small list.  If there’s a team with ample cap space that can carry three goalies and effectively have Jones as a highly-paid reserve, there’s probably a move to be made.  But how many third-string goalies generate a strong trade return?

Ivan Provorov – I don’t think he moves.  If the Flyers were selling, I’d say he’s worth a first-round pick, an ‘A’ prospect, and some sort of established defenseman (for cap purposes).  But I don’t think Philadelphia is selling.  Last summer, they made some player-for-player moves to shake up the core.  That’s the type of scenario that seems more plausible to me if they were considering moving him but that’s a trade that’s easier to make in June or July than it is now.  Having said that, I think he’s in a Philadelphia sweater in October.

As for Claude Giroux, he is one of the more intriguing players to think about as far as rentals go.  No one knows if he’s willing to waive his trade protection to go to a contender.  He doesn’t even know at this point.  If he is, he’d jump pretty close to the top of the list among rental players that are realistic candidates to be moved with the caveat that the Flyers retain half of his $8.275MM AAV.  Without that, they can’t maximize their value and if they’re moving him, they’re going to want to maximize their value so for the purposes of this exercise, let’s assume they’re picking up 50%.

I think any return for Giroux is a three-piece one.  A first-round pick should be on the table at a minimum.  There’s going to be some sort of cap/salary ballast even with retention, a $2MM winger or something like that on a short-term if not expiring contract.  Who’s giving up the first-round pick and when will determine how prominent the third piece – a prospect – is.  If it’s a true contender who’s expected to be picking in the late 20s/early 30s, that prospect is going to be close to an A-level one.  But if it’s one who could be an early-exit candidate where the pick is a bit higher, the caliber of prospect will drop accordingly.

In terms of possible suitors, I like the Avalanche here if they can make the money work.  Adding another impact forward would give them a big boost offensively and while that’s not necessarily a huge need for them, they’re all-in and any upgrade is a good one.  If the Rangers opt for a prominent rental, they should be in the mix as well.  Minnesota has a need and while there’s no way he’d fit cap-wise beyond this season, they can add him this year.  I’ve seen Boston suggested as a fit and while there is one on paper, I’m not sure this is the right time for them to pay the type of price that should be needed to get him when they’re a team that seems likely to be in a Wild Card spot.

pawtucket: Should Arizona stand pat with Chychrun since he’s playing like a pile of hot garbage right now (considering his success last year) and maybe look to move him when his stock is back where it belongs?

The Coyotes are playing the market perfectly for Chychrun right now.  They’ve set an exorbitant asking price to the point where if a team met it, they’d be overpaying by a considerable margin (such as the Kings proposal from last weekend’s mailbag, it’s absolutely a crazy overpayment by Los Angeles but barring that type of return, they’ll hold onto him).  They’re firmly in the driver’s seat here.

Teams are smart enough to realize that Arizona is a bit of a unique environment to the point where it’s hard to look good, especially when you’re the one going against top competition every night on a team that has no hopes of winning anytime soon.  On a more competitive team, I think pretty much everyone thinks Chychrun will rebound so his current season shouldn’t hurt his value much, if at all.

There are several teams where he’d be a number one defenseman and at $4.6MM for three more years after this one, there is plenty of surplus value in his deal.  It may be easier to move him in the summer when more teams have cap flexibility and a willingness to change core players but even at that point, the price will be significant.  Ask for the moon now and if someone is willing to pay it, ask for a bit more and then make the deal.  If no one’s willing to pay up, they can easily wait things out.

wreckage: Should the Oilers trade one of McDavid or Draisaitl in an attempt to build a more complete team. And what could the return look like?

GM Ken Holland has boxed himself in to an extent with some of the long-term contracts he has handed out as of late.  There isn’t a lot of financial flexibility moving forward which is going to make it extremely difficult (if not impossible) to address improved depth for next season and beyond and their goaltending for the foreseeable future.

Trading one of Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl shouldn’t be Plan A so I’m not going to sit here and say they should do that but I wouldn’t be shocked if it came to that in a couple of years.  If they can’t make a deep playoff run this season or next, it’s going to be time for the Oilers to look in the mirror and ask themselves if a team built this way can ever get to that level (and by then, it may not be Holland trying to answer that question).

At that point, Draisaitl will be two years away from testing the market and McDavid three.  If they can’t clear out some of their long-term contracts, it’s going to be hard to keep them both.  So when is the optimal time to try to move one of them?  It’s probably in this stretch and I’d suggest Draisaitl would be the one to go.  Two full seasons of an elite center would yield a big return and allow them to either kickstart a rebuild or try to fill some of those big holes.

That makes a trade hard to forecast.  If they’re rebuilding, they’d be looking for multiple first-round picks, top-end prospects, and young, controllable NHL talent.  If they’re retooling, they’ll be looking to fill some holes and I can’t project what those would be in 2024 as I expect some of their current ones will be addressed by then (or at least they’ll try to do so).  I’d think they’d want an established cost-controlled top-six forward and top-four defenseman, plus some other younger assets to either serve as low-cost regulars for a bit or assets to flip for other win-now pieces.  It’s a fun ‘what if’ scenario but it’s a bit early to try to make some projections on what they’d get back.

Coach Tucci: Do you see the Islanders making any moves to strengthen the team or will they be sellers?

I feel the Islanders are better than where they are in the standings.  They had a lot go against them in the early going this season.  But they’re 17 points out of a Wild Card spot.  I know they have games in hand on everybody but that still seems like far too much of a gap to try to make up.

That said, I don’t think they’re going to sell all that much, in large part because they don’t have a great group of pending unrestricted free agents.  Cal Clutterbuck has a bad contract and probably isn’t worth much, Zach Parise can’t score, and Zdeno Chara and Andy Greene are role players at most for contenders.  There could be a late-round pick or two for some of them but that’s about it.

Because they had so many negatives early on (the long road trip to start, plenty of injuries, and an untimely COVID outbreak), I can’t see Lou Lamoriello really wanting to subtract too much from his core.  They’ll actually have a bit of cap flexibility next summer to try to add at that point so I suspect they’ll want to keep their cap space for that time.

If I had to pick one veteran signed for next season that could go, it’s goalie Semyon Varlamov.  Having that platoon with Ilya Sorokin is nice but that could be money that’s reallocated towards another impact piece for 2022-23.  There are playoff-bound teams that could use Varlamov but it might be easier to do that deal in June or July than it is now.  Long story short, I expect a pretty quiet deadline from the Islanders.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the back end for the Kings, New Jersey’s goaltending situation, Boston’s trade deadline approach, the idea of the Red Wings being buyers, Toronto’s new lines, trade odds for Columbus, and Seattle’s recent victories.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.

Weasel 2: Realistic opportunity for the Kings to add an impact defenseman? What would a Kings package for Chychrun look like?

Honestly, I don’t think it’s the right time for the Kings to push in some of their chips to try to make a big splash, especially on the back end where the options are rentals or paying through the teeth for Jakob Chychrun.  If Alexander Edler returns during the regular season, they need to have the cap space to be able to activate him which effectively cuts what they can currently spend in half.    I’d shop more on the depth side of things where the cost is a lot lower (I’ve mentioned Detroit’s Troy Stecher in the past as someone I think would be a worthwhile and affordable addition) as I don’t think they’re a big add away from really contending.

Among the impact rental defensemen out there, I’d look at Montreal’s Ben Chiarot as a realistic option.  I don’t see Anaheim dealing their two key rental blueliners in the division if they sell and I don’t think Chiarot will get the first-round pick that some have suggested is the current asking price; there are only so many first-rounders that are going to move and there will be better players moved than Chiarot.  A second-round pick and a good prospect (of which the Kings have several) could be enough without taking away any top assets.  Newly-hired advisor Marc Bergevin is quite familiar with what Montreal has and that type of familiarity can help on the trade front.

There are varying reports as to how many pieces are needed for Chychrun.  It ranges between three first-round elements and an Eichel-like return.  The Kings don’t quite have the similar pieces from the Eichel return so I think something along the lines of Quinton Byfield, Alex Turcotte, and a first-round pick is probably in the range of what Arizona is looking for with perhaps a secondary piece (prospect or second-rounder tacked on to get closer to the four-piece Eichel return).  It’s a huge ask but Arizona doesn’t have to move Chychrun unless they’re blown away and I don’t think the Kings should be the team to make that type of move.

Speak Of The Devil: What can the Devils realistically do to make their goaltending situation better? Blackwood is clearly not the answer here and Bernier is done for the year and there are rumors he may be done for his career. So, who can we go after to end this hamster wheel of mediocrity?

Jack Campbell is setting himself up for a nice payday as the best starter available in free agency and New Jersey has plenty of cap space at their disposal still.  He’s about the only long-term option available (I know Darcy Kuemper is another option but with his injury history, there’s some risk) so if they’re convinced his stint with Toronto isn’t a mirage but rather a true sign of where he is, back up the money truck and make sure not to get outbid for his services.  With his overall inexperience though, it’s a bit of a risk.

The first name that came to mind when I saw this question was Sergei Bobrovsky.  Florida is going to want to move him at some point even with the season he’s having; Spencer Knight is their goalie of the future and they’re going to want to reallocate Bobrovsky’s $10MM price tag with Aleksander Barkov’s new deal starting next season and Jonathan Huberdeau up next summer.  There’s a chance for the Devils to take advantage of that if they think Bobrovsky’s back on track and could get him for a below-market trade return.  But it’s a gamble again.

But here’s the thing.  Every goalie I can throw out there is a question mark.  Alexandar Georgiev is probably going to move and the rivalry notwithstanding, is he really a starter?  He could be but it’s a risk.  If St. Louis wants to go all in on Ville Husso and move Jordan Binnington, is he much of an upgrade on Blackwood?  Semyon Varlamov would be a short-term solution so the hamster wheel wouldn’t stop spinning for long.  Philipp Grubauer has had a brutal season in Seattle but was good in Colorado so maybe he’s a fit but five years is a lot for a gamble.  You could sell me on adding Linus Ullmark to that list to let Boston run with Jeremy Swayman but there are question marks with him as well.

In pretty much every scenario, it’s going to be a roll of the dice.  That’s the challenge with the way the league is going with goaltending – there just aren’t 32 legitimate starting goalies out there let alone teams having a surplus at that spot that doesn’t come with a poison pill of sorts.  There are upgrades available but few guarantees and with Bernier’s future in question, it wouldn’t be shocking to see the Devils try to add a goalie next offseason.  These will be some of the names they likely look to.

case7187: Do you think the B’s could package those three horrible first-round picks DeBrusk, Senyshyn, and Zboril for a guy like J.T. Miller or someone similar to him or would they have to add picks or Vaakanainen to any deals?

SkidRowe: Realistically, what can the Bruins do? They have a lot of talent but they also have glaring needs at C, LD, and RW. Besides draft picks, they don’t have many cheap, young assets to trade (unless they’re willing to move Swayman). Studnicka and Vaakanainen are okay prospects but not exciting. DeBrusk is overpaid and underperforming. Frederic is a former 1st rounder but he’s bottom 6 only. It will be tough for the Bruins to make a competitive offer for any of the big names that may be out there (Chychrun, Hertl, J.T. Miller) given their lack of assets. If they were lucky enough to acquire one of the bigger fish, they would have nothing left to fill their other needs.

@BobbyRotondo: What are the Bruins going to do?

Let’s put all of the Boston questions together.

On the first one, I’ll pose a question back – if the picks are as horrible as they’ve been, why is Vancouver dealing an impact player on a team-friendly contract for them?  Draft pedigree is meaningless at this stage of their careers.  Jake DeBrusk’s trade value is next to zero with his salary and limited production.  He’s not getting a qualifying offer and he’s not producing enough to get teams interested.  They can make a move involving him for a similarly-paid underachiever but that’s about it.  Zach Senyshyn cleared waivers at the start of the season and has been good but not great in the minors.  I wouldn’t be surprised if he moves but it’d be for a depth piece in lieu of trading a late-round pick back; that’s where his value is.  I think Jakub Zboril could become a third-pairing player but he’s out for the year with a torn ACL so his value right now is minimal at best.

So, what can the Bruins do?  They have some cap space to work with which puts them in pretty good shape to try to make a splash.  But they also don’t have the long-term cap room to work with to add another high-priced player to this core assuming they’re able to re-sign Patrice Bergeron this summer and David Pastrnak the following offseason.  Making the playoffs shouldn’t be an issue but they look like a Wild Card team more than a contender.  Is moving one of those few quality young trade assets as was correctly noted for an impact rental player the right move at this time?  I don’t think so.  You do that when you’re trying to contend, not become less of an underdog in the first round; there is no one rental player that puts them over the top in terms of contention.

Remember the Drew Stafford trade from a few years ago?  Boston was able to get him for cheap in large part because of his contract.  That’s the type of move I think they’ll look at.  Add a quality veteran or two that will improve the depth and provide a bit of upside relative to the players they’ll be replacing but with their cap hits being higher than they should be, they won’t have to move much to get them.  Those are incremental improvements to the roster without mortgaging the future.  For a team in their situation, they shouldn’t be doing much more than that.  That’s not exciting but it’s prudent and with their prospect pool not being the deepest right now, I think it’s the right course of action.

HockeyBoz: Is there a chance that the Red Wings are interested in Klingberg? Staal, Leddy, DeKeyser all could be gone next year. Hronek slipping on the depth chart. Might be a good pick-up. They have draft picks stockpiled. Thoughts??

John Klingberg is going to yield a nice return in a trade for Dallas even as a pending free agent.  I want to particularly emphasize that last bit.  Klingberg will be an unrestricted free agent this summer.  Detroit enters play today nine points out of a playoff spot with Boston (the team holding the final spot) having three games in hand.  It would make no sense for the Red Wings to trade for Klingberg as a rental; they’d still almost certainly miss the playoffs and be out some draft picks or prospects for good measure.

Now, if Klingberg was to sign a contract extension as part of a trade, that’s another story.  Is it worth parting with a good pick or prospect to secure Klingberg for seven or eight more seasons?  Sure.  And in that situation, it would make sense for GM Steve Yzerman to consider.  If Klingberg makes it to free agency in July, then they should absolutely be involved; at some point, Detroit will need to start building back their veteran talent base which would go a long way towards helping them take a big step or two forward.

If Klingberg is willing to sign with Detroit right now, then they should be interested in him over the coming weeks.  Otherwise, they have no business being involved in a trade for him and would be best served to wait until the summer to go after him.

Detroit_SP: Does the Red Wings’ best QUALITY option at 2C for 2022-23+ already play on the team? If not, how does the team add a non-rental piece that can contribute quickly enough not to waste Bertuzzi, Larkin, Fabbri, and Vrana’s time with the organization?

I don’t think so.  I like Joseph Veleno but he’s more of a checker than a top-six guy.  Michael Rasmussen shows flashes of offensive skill but I feel he’s also more of a third liner in an ideal situation.  Pius Suter isn’t going to be a second liner long-term either.

So how do they get one?  They can offer a huge contract to Nazem Kadri in free agency or pay a hefty price to get one in a trade.  It cost Montreal a first-rounder plus a second-rounder to get Christian Dvorak, a lower-end 2C.  If you want a quality piece, it’s going to cost a high-end prospect at a minimum; teams moving one with some team control would be asking about guys like Simon Edvinsson.  Controllable impact centers are worth that much.

You make a good point about not wasting the remaining years for their current veteran core and I tend to lean the same way.  Cup contention comes from a combination of good veterans, young impact players that aren’t on high-priced contracts, and impact pieces on entry-level pacts.  That’s the ideal way to maximize talent in the salary cap era.  That particular structure only has a few years left as at that point, their current veterans will either cost more or will have moved on.  This isn’t the season to do it – they’re probably not making the playoffs – but that switch should be flipped this summer.

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