Free agency is now less than six weeks away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up. There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in mid-July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well. Next up is a look at the Capitals.
Key Restricted Free Agents
G Ilya Samsonov – After a disappointing sophomore year, the Capitals were hoping that the 25-year-old would have a bounce-back campaign and stake his claim to the starting spot. It didn’t happen. Instead, Samsonov’s performance dipped once again with a save percentage of just .896 while his GAA jumped to 3.02. In other words, he performed like a backup goalie. Samsonov is owed a $2MM qualifying offer but is now arbitration-eligible which will help drive the price tag a little higher but it would be hard to see Washington offer a long-term deal. He still will be RFA-eligible next summer so a one-year contract that gives him one more chance makes the most sense for both sides.
G Vitek Vanecek – Washington opted to trade a second-round pick to Seattle to get Vanecek back a week after they lost him in expansion and it’s a move that worked out well for them. The 26-year-old had a near-repeat performance of his rookie year, posting an identical save percentage of .908 and improving slightly on his GAA from 2.69 to 2.67. The qualifying offer for under $800K but it’s irrelevant as he’ll get at least three times that on his next deal. Unlike Samsonov, Vanecek is a year away from UFA eligibility so they might be inclined to work on a multi-year pact with him which could push the price tag closer to the $3.5MM range.
Other RFAs: D Tobias Geisser, D Lucas Johansen, F Brett Leason, F Beck Malenstyn
Key Unrestricted Free Agents
D Justin Schultz – Schultz was a surprise signing in 2020 considering Washington had little cap space at the time which made it seem unlikely that they’d use a lot of it on one player. His first year with them was good and he was able to hold down a spot in their top four, averaging just over 19 minutes a game. However, things didn’t go as well this season. His production dipped to 23 points in 74 games (a bit on the low side for an offensive defenseman) while he dipped below 17 minutes in ATOI as he was more sheltered; in the playoffs, that dipped to just over 15 minutes. The Schultz of 2020-21 was close to being worth his $4MM AAV but this year’s version wasn’t near that price point. Still just 31, there will be a market for him – especially as a right-shot defender – but he will be hard-pressed to land a raise in free agency. A small dip appears likely.
F Marcus Johansson – It took a little while for Johansson to sign last summer, eventually agreeing to a one-year, $1.5MM deal with Seattle before making his way to Washington at the trade deadline for the second go-round with the team. His per-game numbers were quite similar to his 2020-21 performance so it stands to reason that he should be able to command a similar price tag this time around. Johansson’s positional versatility will help his market but at this point of his career, he’s more of a depth scorer than a top-six player like he was just a few years ago.
F Johan Larsson – Larsson has shown flashes of offensive skill in the past but it hasn’t yielded much production. He had a bigger role while he was with Arizona and there was a corresponding increase in production as he was just over a half a point per game before being moved to the Capitals at the trade deadline. Generally speaking, teams will want to go low on their fourth liners and role players to save some cap space but Larsson has a chance to be an exception as a decent checking center that can chip in a bit from the fourth line. He should have a chance to at least come close to the $1.4MM AAV he had in each of the last two years.
Other UFAs: G Pheonix Copley, F Shane Gersich, D Matt Irwin, D Michal Kempny, F Brian Pinho
Projected Cap Space
Washington enters this offseason with just under $9MM in cap space and two big question marks with the injuries to Nicklas Backstrom and Tom Wilson. They could both be LTIR-bound to start the season but at least in Wilson’s case, he’ll be back after a couple of months. With Backstrom, everything is on the table still with GM Brian MacLellan saying continuing to play through his injury would be unsustainable. If they shut him down for a year with surgery, he could stay on LTIR throughout the year and the Capitals would have some flexibility.
Until they know one way or the other, they can’t plan for that to happen so for now, the bulk of that $9MM will need to go towards their two RFA goaltenders while they’ll also need to sign a defenseman or two with the leftover money. Unless Backstrom is ruled out for the season, MacLellan won’t have much cap flexibility to work with this summer.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.
Ideal off-season:
Goalies- trade VV and resign samsonov as he will be cheaper and offers more long term upside. Sign Husso in FA
Defense- let Shultz and co. walk. Sign defensive 2nd pair right shot and left shot 3rd pair
Offense- trade eller as mcmichael has show he is ready for the 3line center role. Use cap savings from Wilson and backstrom to sign Domi to a 2 year deal and a scoring wing
Meh
Heh, I’m with Pawtucket. Samsonov was decent — but not really better than that — his rookie season, and he’s been below league average ever since. Honestly, with the team in a cap crunch, I wouldn’t even qualify him, and take the risk of him getting an unreasonable arbitration award.
With Vanecek, well … he’s been league average so far, but just that. I’m grimacing a bit at $3.5, but if they give Samsonov the heave-ho, I suppose they’d have to extend the offer to that much
VV has been a disaster in every post season game he has played in. Samsonov has not had great regular season success but shows up when in counts in the playoffs. Goalies often take longer to develop and reach their full potential (see markstrom, Talbot, Campbell, etc.)
All of this depends on Nicky Apples.
My gut says one of them stays and one of them goes and that Fucale becomes the back-up. As much as they need a big name, there’s none out there and we don’t have the draft picks to get it done via trade. And we know Fleury isn’t coming and isn’t worth the price tag even if he was open to it.
Resigning Larsson will depend on Hagelin. If Hagelin isn’t back, Larsson makes a ton of sense. But that still doesn’t address the void left by Wilson being out and MoJo leaving. McMichael is worthy of a shot, but AJF isn’t a top 6 player. Snively? Meh.
Bit of a hot take I guess, but I would see what kind of offers I get for John Carlson. There’s a couple reasons for this.
First off, I think the team is too slow and it showed in the Panthers series. Carlson is one of the slowest skaters on the team and though he is one of the best offensive D-men in the league, he doesn’t bring enough D to the table. He’s not physical or intimidating at all. IMO, he’s way overpaid. If the Caps agree to eat some of that contract, he may get some pretty interesting offers.
Second, one of the major issues this team has had pretty much since late-December the season after they won the cup is they have a really hard time playing a full 60 minutes of hockey. Backstrom was right when he said the Caps “gave them the series” against the Panthers in the first round. They literally gave away three straight games and it was because they can’t hold it together for a full 60. I think some of this core in Washington have gotten a little too comfortable and things need to be shaken up. I thought Laviolette would fix this, but it’s still there. Fact is if the Islanders didn’t have such a down year, the Caps would have missed the playoffs this season.
As far as the goalie situation, I just don’t know… As someone else eluded to, Vanecek goes AWOL in the playoffs and Samsonov ups his game though it’s still not really enough. I really don’t know what the team is going to do here as neither are starting goaltenders at this time. Do you hang on to them for one more year and see if there’s a breakout? Perhaps Clay Stevenson will enter the picture at some point. He is a late bloomer, but he is a bit interesting to me. Too soon to count on that though.
It doesn’t seem to me that the Caps have any better option but to bring them both back on a one year deal if they can and see what happens. I don’t really trust either one of them right now, but I’d be willing to give them another chance to see if one emerges as the goalie they need. I suppose you could go with Fucale, but if Samsonov/Vanecek don’t work out, is Fucale better than the one you let go? I’m not too confident in that yet either. Just a really crappy situation in net for this team.
I’m a bit late to this party…mostly in agreement with the comments above.
It would be great if they could sort out Backstrom sooner rather than later. If he is to be on the shelf 2022-23 the team can be made better (and we have all seen Backstrom play through the injury – agree fully with the “unsustainable” quote if he tries to do so). Having no Backstrom this year and 100% Backstrom in 2023-24 is better than 2 years with him at less than 50% and one hit away from being out anyway.
They have two backup caliber goalies. Vanecek has a lower ceiling but a higher floor than Samsonov (read: more consistently basically average). I did see a game or two when Samsonov was awesome, but see too many when he blows up. How long’s his leash at this point.
Samsonov would probably be the more attractive trade piece though, given the potential he does sometimes show. They could improve with one of the G’s on the market which means one (or both for a top G, bring Fucale as #2) has to go. If they go into 2022-23 with both Samsonov and Vanecek, this limits the Caps to being a wild card team.
I don’t think you’ll see Carlson traded without the Caps eating at least 40-50% of his salary even with his offensive production but I don’t disagree with the idea. The Caps do need to get younger and faster on D. Same up front. I am probably faster than a few of them which is sad; I’m 47. Eller’s time has passed, I think they need to give McMichael the 3C minutes all year and see what they have. Schultz, Hagelin, MoJo – if they go the team isn’t worse off.
Unfortunately I am getting some of the vibe that I got when Detroit’s window slammed shut because the Wings got old and slow in a hurry. I think the Caps can still correct theirs, work some younger, faster guys into the rotation and still contend this year. But this year and long term – youth and speed.