PHR Mailbag: Sharks, CBA, Hurricanes, Bruins, Predators
Over the last few days, we’ve taken your mailbag questions on Twitter using the hashtag #PHRMailbag and on the site via the comments feature. Here are the inquiries for this edition of the mailbag:
nvalasco: What does SJ do now that they lost Marleau? They already struggled to score last year, & now lost a 20-30 goal scorer. Unless Hertl takes that next step we’re waiting for, how big of a step back do they take?
I have to admit, I’m really surprised by San Jose’s lack of offseason activity, particularly with regards to not really replacing Patrick Marleau. They’re banking on a healthy Tomas Hertl picking up some of the slack and a full season of Jannik Hansen will certainly help. Mikkel Boedker is due for somewhat of a bounce back campaign as well. Those three will help offset some of the lost production but if the goal is to try to improve, I don’t think they’ve done that.
I wouldn’t be surprised if they’re waiting out the UFA market for one more winger; Thomas Vanek and Jaromir Jagr come to mind as players who could still help for a year while serving as a bridge to youngsters like Timo Meier and Kevin Labanc. The team clearly has confidence in their youngsters but it never hurts to have a capable insurance policy in place.
Even if they don’t make further moves, I don’t think they’re in too much jeopardy of taking a major step back. Vegas isn’t going to be a playoff contender and neither are Arizona and Vancouver. Right off the bat, their worst case scenario is maybe just falling short of a Wild Card spot as they’re not going to be any worse than fifth in the division. The Sharks aren’t likely to contend for a division title in 2017-18 but they should still be in the think of the playoff race, either for the last guaranteed Pacific spot or one of the Wild Cards.
Harry Goldman: If The NHLPA Opts Out Of CBA After The 2019-20 Season, Do You Think There Will Be A Lockout? If “YES” How Long?
I think you’re being generous classifying this as if and not when the NHLPA opts out as things currently stand. Between the rapidly escalating escrow situation and the Olympic snafu, it’s going to happen. Unfortunately, considering the last two CBA talks have resulted in lockouts, there’s a good chance there will be another one when that time comes.
As for how long it will be, a lot will depend on whether the two sides are going to be looking to change the 50/50 split (at least on paper) of hockey related revenue, or HRR. If they agree to keep it as is, that’s one big element that will be out of the equation that was there before. That said, I wouldn’t be surprised if there are discussions as to how to redefine or reclassify certain parts of HRR that could complicate things a bit even if they keep the current split intact.
In terms of other stuff that will be on the table, escrow and the Olympics will undoubtedly be areas that the NHLPA will want addressed while it wouldn’t be surprising to see the league try to put caps on no-trade or no-move clauses, term limits, and maybe even restricting the amount of signing bonuses permitted in a standard contract on the table to avoid contracts like the ones that Carey Price and Connor McDavid, among others, have signed lately.
If you’re looking for anything optimistic to hang your hat on, consider that the US television deal may be in play at this time as they’ll be within one year of the current deal with NBC expiring. It’s not practical business sense to not have games being played when you’re trying to get a new TV deal, especially with the expectation that rights fees across the sporting landscape are likely to drop.
It doesn’t seem like much progress gets made in CBA talks until there’s a work stoppage so it’s reasonable to expect one to happen. However, I don’t think it will be as long as the last two – maybe a couple of months but not enough to cancel an entire season like 2004-05.
Erik Jernigan: I feel that the Hurricanes still need to acquire a top line center. Do you see any other options that may be available since it doesn’t seem like a Duchene deal will ever happen?
You can make a case that many teams still need to acquire a top line center but Carolina isn’t in bad shape at all with Viktor Rask, Elias Lindholm, and Jordan Staal. If they were to keep Lindholm down the middle permanently, that’s a pretty strong trio with the first two still having some offensive upside. There isn’t a true number one but you could make a case they have three number twos and not many teams have that type of depth. They could use more offensive help for sure but I don’t think GM Ron Francis would need to limit his focus to the center position.
In terms of notable names besides Matt Duchene (who some teams view as a second liner and not a top liner now) being available, there really aren’t any that spring to mind. Toronto and Tyler Bozak could be one to watch at some point if they intend to move William Nylander back to center long-term but he’s a rental. Everyone wants John Tavares but the likelihood of the Islanders moving him now is remote and he’s also a rental. I wonder if the Jets will be able to afford to keep Bryan Little around long-term but he too is a pending UFA and that decision could be punted until closer to the trade deadline depending on where they are in the standings.
Legitimate number one centers with team control rarely become available and Duchene is probably the most prominent pivot that could move before the season starts. Beyond him, the opportunity for upgrading at that position may have to wait until midseason depending on which rental players may be available.
Connorsoxfan: Is Boston going to have to add a vet like Vanek/Jagr/Stafford, or are they content relying on young guys like Bjork and Jakob Forsbacka-Karlson/Carlson (I forget the spelling) to fill out the top 9?
The answer may ultimately depend on what happens with the David Pastrnak discussions. How much money does GM Don Sweeney want to keep around for in-season moves? If Pastrnak comes in at a deal smaller than Brad Marchand (eight years, $49MM) which is what both sides had talked about earlier, then there should be enough wiggle room to add a more proven veteran. If it comes in higher though, they may not have enough room left in their ‘slush fund’ to sign someone of note and still have enough money left for during the season.
I think the team is content with using some of their talented prospects in their top nine if they need to. If it was me in charge though, I’d be looking to sign one of those veterans. Injuries always happen and young players can struggle so why not have that extra help in place beforehand rather than potentially being forced to trade from a position of weakness during the season? With Drew Stafford’s market in particular not going anywhere, I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s offered a cheap one-year deal. He played well enough down the stretch for them that he’d be worth keeping around in some capacity.
Ray: Will Preds GM pull the trigger give up defense for offense? Finally get replacement for James Neal?
I think there will be a time where GM David Poile moves one of his top-four defenders. However, I don’t think it happens this season. The earlier acquisition of Alexei Emelin gives them the security blanket of being able to move him into a second pairing role if injuries arise. If they move one of their better ones now, Emelin becomes a full-time top-four player which isn’t ideal.
Nashville has quite a few promising young blueliners including Dante Fabbro and Samuel Girard, among several others. They could dangle one of those prospects to a rebuilding team to try and find a replacement for Neal that way. I think that would be the better way to go as that would allow them to keep their top two pairings intact.
A few years from now when some of these youngsters are NHL ready is when I could see one of their big four defenders getting dealt. If they have intentions of making another long playoff run in 2017-18 though, they’ll need that back end at full strength so dealing from that to fill their offensive void fixes one hole but creates another that may be even harder to fix which would be counter-productive at best.
Submit Your Questions For The Pro Hockey Rumors Mailbag
Did you miss the weekly live chat? Well now you can submit your question to our mailbag and have our Brian La Rose answer it on Monday! While the summer drags on, there is still lots of intrigue as teams look to fine tune their roster and use their remaining cap space. You can submit your questions on Twitter using the hashtag #PHRMailbag or by using the comment feature below.
Be sure to check back on Monday when our mailbag is posted. You can check out the last mailbag right here.
Will The San Jose Sharks Make A Move?
It’s hard to make an argument for any other team in the NHL as having a less exciting start to the 2017 off-season than the San Jose Sharks. Yes, the Sharks are just a year removed from a Stanley Cup appearance and have re-signed Norris Trophy-winner Brent Burns as well as Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Joe Thornton, and Martin Jones since then. You can get excited about new deals for Ryan Carpenter and Tim Heed last month too if you like. Yet, other than re-signing their own players, what have the Sharks added to their 2017-18 squad?
We know what they’ve lost. Patrick Marleau, a career-Shark and the franchise leader in goals (power play, short-handed, and even strength), points, and games played, is now a member of the Toronto Maple Leafs. David Schlemko, a 2016 free agency addition, was selected by the Vegas Golden Knights in the Expansion Draft and then flipped to the Montreal Canadiens. Micheal Haley (Florida Panthers) and Buddy Robinson (Winnipeg Jets) are also gone.
The only additions for San Jose thus far, as they look to plug the holes formed by lost free agents as well as improve upon their 2016-17 performance: left wing Brandon Bollig and goaltender Antoine Bibeau. Bollig, 30, is a physical, fourth-line caliber forward, but doesn’t produce enough on a consistent basis to be a regular player. Bollig hit his career-high in points in 2013-14 with the Chicago Blackhawks when he scored 14 points in 82 games. Soon after, he was traded to the Calgary Flames, where he scored just nine points in 116 games over two seasons before being buried in the AHL for the entirety of the 2016-17 season. The big winger posted 11 goals and 11 assists in 60 games for the AHL’s Stockton Heat, but still brings little to the the table for the Sharks other than grit and experience. As for Bibeau, the 23-year-old keeper was not tendered a qualifying offer by the Toronto Maple Leafs after a disappointing season. Bibeau had an .894 save percentage and 3.08 GAA in 32 regular season appearances for the AHL’s Toronto Marlies and performed even worse in his one playoff game. Bibeau had clearly fallen behind Garret Sparks and Kasimir Kaskisuo to fifth in the Leafs’ organizational depth chart, and so he was not retained. In San Jose, Bibeau will be no greater than fourth behind Jones, Aaron Dell, and Troy Grosenick and may never get another NHL start.
Bollig and Bibeau, two players destined for the AHL, are not exactly an inspiring pair, which begs the question: will the Sharks make another move? The team is far from perfect and could use some help. Jones and Dell proved to be a solid duo last season and the blue line is as deep as any in the NHL, but San Jose is not without needs up front. The Sharks ranked just 19th in scoring last season, and also boasted on of the worst power play’s in the NHL, below average face-off numbers, and poor possession stats. Burns (a defenseman) was the team’s leading scorer last year and tied for the team lead in goals, while the since-departed Marleau was fifth in scoring and third in goals. The rest of the top five scorers – Joe Pavelski, Logan Couture, and Joe Thornton – will return, but the 38-year-old Thornton is recovering from a torn ACL and MCL, an injury that occurred after he scored all *seven* of his goals. Beyond those three forwards, the production dropped way off in 2016-17 to the likes of disappointments such as Mikkel Boedker and Joel Ward and young, developing players like Chris Tierney and Tomas Hertl. The Sharks have a clear need for secondary scoring, especially with Marleau gone, and could use a power play catalyst as well. Brandon Bollig is not going to cut it and a full season of Jannik Hansen, acquired at the Trade Deadline, likely won’t either.
Top options for the Sharks include Thomas Vanek, Drew Stafford, and Jiri Hudler, while taking a waiver on a veteran like Jaromir Jagr, Jarome Iginla, P.A. Parenteau, or Mike Ribeiro or on a younger player like Alex Chiasson or Brandon Pirri could work as well. Given the Sharks’ scoring needs, their sufficient cap space, and the complete dullness of their off-season to this point, perhaps maybe two of those players could find their way to San Jose. If not, the Sharks do have pieces to make a move to acquire a scorer, potentially a Matt Duchene or Evander Kane, if they so choose. One way or another, GM Doug Wilson needs to do something, and quick, or not only will he have a team that has surely gotten worse since the end of the season, but he will have a disappointed fan base on his hands as well.
PHR Originals: 5/7/17 – 5/14/17
While the hockey world has been captivated by the NHL playoffs, now onto the conference finals, it’s been a relatively quiet week for hard-hitting news. Luckily, the PHR writers have been hard at work on some original works. Here’s a round-up of our recent articles:
Lead writer Gavin Lee detailed how team may use the Vegas Golden Knight’s early free agent negotiation window to their own benefit, including the possibility of sign-and-trades. The upcoming Expansion Draft is bringing many new and foreign concepts to the otherwise routine structure of the NHL off-season, and the negotiation window is just another level. Gavin also looked into some pressing goaltending issues for two teams that struggled in 2016-17: the Detroit Red Wings and Dallas Stars.
Seth Lawrence was busy with original pieces this week, as he dove into a plethora of topics including the big question everyone is asking after another early postseason exit for the Washington Capitals: should Alexander Ovechkin be moved? Seth also looked back at the P.K. Subban–Shea Weber trade, looked forward to potential buyouts this summer, and took a shot at guessing a few names that may be of interest to GM Dale Tallon and the Florida Panthers.
Brian La Rose continued to plug away at his “Offseason Keys” series, this week targeting three unique Eastern Conference organizations: a team whose fortunes have changed more than any other since the end of the season, the Draft lottery-winning New Jersey Devils; a team with a new man in charge and in desperate need of a quick turnaround, the Buffalo Sabres; and a team who over the past decade plus has still been playing at this point in the season more often than not rather than planning a rebuild, the Detroit Red Wings.
Holger Stolzenberg turned his focus to Western Conference and two Canadian squads with some questions to answer. Can the Edmonton Oilers rely on youngsters like Drake Caggiula, Anton Slepyshev, and Matt Benning moving forward? How will the Winnipeg Jets go about solving their problems in net?
Brett Barrett reminded us that, though it rarely seen, restricted free agent offer sheets do exist and given the talent level of the 2017 restricted free agent class, we may see one pop up this off-season. The price is high, but is it worth the investment?
Finally, yesterday I reflected on one of the busiest days in hockey and voiced my concerns over the status of another. With the NHL season nearing its end, who were the true winners and losers of the NHL Trade Deadline given the benefit of hindsight? Some of those deals still await further evaluation if the acquired player signs an extension, but in an already weak unrestricted free agent class that has seen top talent re-sign already with the potential for many more deals prior to July 1st, can we as hockey fans afford to see more extensions? Who will be left to highlight free agency?
PHR Originals: Weekend Edition
Alongside breaking NHL news, ProHockeyRumors staff pen original and engaging work. This weekend brought pieces on individual teams’ expansion draft issues, offseason considerations, and free agency. In case you missed them, here are the top five original pieces published this weekend:
Blue Jackets Must Convince Hartnell to Waive NMC
The Columbus Blue Jackets had an excellent season spurred by the exciting play of several young forwards. The team faces a potential setback, however, if they lose one of those young players to the Vegas Golden Knights in the NHL expansion draft this summer. The biggest obstacle preventing the Blue Jackets from protecting all their young prospects is aging veteran forward Scott Hartnell. Hartnell has a No-Movement Cause, and the expansion draft rules require that any player with a NMC must be protected in the draft. That means that Columbus must protect Hartnell over one of its more promising younger players. The Blue Jackets can solve this issue by convincing Hartnell to waive his NMC.
PHR Originals: 4/23/17 – 4/29/17
Here’s a rundown of some of the original content produced by the PHR staff over the past week:
Seth Lawrence takes a closer look at the Red Wings and some of the challenges GM Ken Holland faces this offseason as he looks to reshape the team after missing the postseason for the first time in 25 years. Unfortunately for those looking for change, there are some pricey contracts and a tricky salary cap situation to navigate that makes any significant changes easier said than done.
Seth also broke down some of the tough decisions that the Senators and GM Pierre Dorion will soon be dealing with when it comes to the expansion draft in June. As things look now, they may be in line to lose a key component of their team to the Golden Knights but that discussion will be in the background for now with the Sens already up 2-0 in their second round series against the Rangers.
Still with expansion, our Zach Leach details how the Flyers find themselves in a bit of a tricky situation when it comes to that draft. Do they protect their best option for the present and risk losing a quality youngster or protect the prospect and potentially have to go into free agency to find a new starter?
It’s likely to be a summer where quite a few goalies of note find themselves with new teams. Seth discusses some of the teams that are likely to be on the prowl for help between the pipes. With the amount of goalies that could be available in advance of expansion, those teams could be poised to bounce on a potential buyers’ market.
In a draft class without a consensus number one choice, the time may be right to consider dealing away the top pick which the Devils own after the draft lottery on Saturday. Our Gavin Lee reviews the recent history of the number one pick being traded, something that hasn’t yielded a whole lot of extra value for teams in the past.
Trading The First Overall Pick: A Draft Lottery Timeline
Since the NHL draft lottery was created in 1995, there has been an uncertainty over who would be given the opportunity to select first overall in the year’s draft, with perceived “tanking” teams not being guaranteed the best spot. From it’s inception through 2012, teams could only move up four spots and thus the Los Angeles Kings—the very first winners of the lottery—couldn’t steal the first pick away from the Ottawa Senators in ’95.
But whenever a team is awarded the top spot, immediate pressure is put upon them to consider trading it. Questions are asked, stories are written and the seed of doubt creeps into a front office. ‘How can we be sure that he’s the best available prospect?’ they ask, especially in years without a consensus. If Sidney Crosby or Connor McDavid aren’t staring you in the face, it may be beneficial to let someone else make that decision. Teams have indeed given up the first pick in the past.
In 1998, the Tampa Bay Lightning were easily the worst team in the league. They finished with a 17-55-10 record and at the deadline decided to give themselves a bit of insurance. They dealt Bryan Marchment and David Shaw to the San Jose Sharks for Andrei Nasarov and the right to flip picks with the Sharks should they win the lottery. The Sharks had acquired the Florida Panthers pick earlier in the year, and looked like they’d have a good chance at winning the lottery. They did just that, and the Lightning’s insurance policy paid off allowing them to flip picks and select Vincent Lecavalier first overall.
The Sharks would actually trade down one more spot, giving the Nashville Predators the chance to draft David Legwand at #2. In return, the Sharks selected Brad Stuart at #3, and Jonathan Cheechoo at #29. While both were great players for the Sharks, Lecavalier would have looked mighty fine in San Jose for the better part of his career.
In 1999, the Chicago Blackhawks actually won the draft lottery but could only move up from eighth to fourth. That winning set a huge line of trades in motion, as Brian Burke desperately worked to get the second and third picks in order to draft Daniel and Henrik Sedin. First he dealt with Chicago, then Tampa Bay and finally Atlanta, giving them the first-overall pick and the chance to draft Patrik Stefan the Czech center that had elite potential.
This story ends with the Canucks getting two legendary players who are with the team to this day, the Lightning—who originally had the first overall pick—with Dan Cloutier, Niklas Sundstrom and a whack of players who never panned out, and the Thrashers with one of the biggest draft busts in history. The Blackhawks at least got Bryan McCabe out of that original deal with the Canucks.
In 2002, the Florida Panthers were all set to draft Jay Bouwmeester first overall after winning the draft lottery and moving up from third. He was their target all along, until Doug McLean and the Columbus Blue Jackets said they wanted Rick Nash anyway, and would trade up to get him. The Panthers moved back down to the third spot after making a deal with Atlanta that they wouldn’t pick Bouwmeester at #2—they chose Kari Lehtonen instead—and everyone ended up with their guy. All Florida got for moving down was the right to swap picks with Columbus the following year, but since the Panthers would again find themselves with the first-overall pick that right was never exercised.
That 2003 lottery had much of the same for Florida, who this time moved up from the fourth spot. It was the Penguins this year who were after that top spot, eyeing a goaltender named Marc-Andre Fleury. They dealt the Panthers Mikael Samuelsson, a second-rounder and their spot at #3 overall for the right to draft “Flower” and an extra third round selection. The Panthers would pick Nathan Horton at #3, and Stefan Meyer with that second rounder.
In retrospect, trading the first overall pick has rarely generated much extra value for the team, but has caused some of the most interested draft-floor dealing in history. When teams attend the lottery this Saturday, we’ll see who may hold the cards going into the June draft. With no clear consensus in the top five once again, perhaps there is another chance for a first-overall swap this summer.
PHR Originals: 3/27/17 – 4/1/17
Pro Hockey Rumors had a number of original articles this week as the regular season winds down and the playoffs beckon. Here are a few from the past week:
- Brett analyzed the Edmonton Oilers’ first line dominance and how it has played a tremendous role in the success of the team this season. While the Oilers’ renaissance certainly got its jumpstart from Connor McDavid, it’s the play of others who have certainly helped the team reach the playoffs for the first time in 11 years.
- Meanwhile, I took a closer look at the rebuild situation that the Red Wings are facing and some concerning elements that have arisen over the past few years that GM Ken Holland will have to navigate.
- Gavin highlighted the surprising yet impressive performance by Patrick Eaves, who has notched 29 goals this season between the Dallas Stars and Anaheim Ducks. He also notes that no one in the hockey world–including your humble writers here at PHR–saw this performance coming. In addition to Eaves, Gavin wrote about Toby Enstrom and how after going through a season ending knee surgery, it may be in the Jets best interest to find a way to have him waive his no movement clause.
- Finally, Gavin also answered many of your questions during a live chat. In addition to providing sound hockey analysis, he’s also open to fantasy baseball advice for replacing Jeurys Familia.
David Pastrnak & Leon Draisaitl: The Next Contract
The 2016 restricted free agent market was one of the most talented – and most entertaining – in recent memory. As hockey moves more and more toward youthful skill and speed, the dynamics of team building have changed as well, as last summer marked the “death of the bridge deal“. A multitude of massive extensions for young players were handed out, including giant new deals for forwards like Colorado’s Nathan MacKinnon, Winnipeg’s Mark Scheifele, Calgary duo Sean Monahan and Johnny Gaudreau, and Florida pair Jonathan Huberdeau and Vincent Trocheck. The 2017 RFA group is no slouch either; it features star scorers such as Minnesota’s Mikael Granlund, Vancouver’s Bo Horvat, Nashville’s Ryan Johansen and Viktor Arvidsson, the Tampa Bay trio of Jonathan Drouin, Tyler Johnson, and Ondrej Palat and more.
Yet, the two most intriguing restricted free agents are the youngest of the group: 20-year-old Boston Bruins right winger David Pastrnak and 21-year-old Edmonton Oilers center Leon Draisaitl. Last summer opened the door for the game-changing pair to skip right over an affordable short-term deal that would keep them restricted into a third contract for the “prime” of their career. Now, Pastrnak and Draisaitl have the newly-minted industry standard option of asking for a six- to eight-year deal, lasting well into their late 20’s, worth somewhere in the range of $5-7MM annually. So what exactly will the new contracts look like this summer?
Pastrnak’s agent, J.P. Barry, is on the record as saying that his client is looking for a long-term deal and they are viewing the contracts of Monahan, Scheifele, and Filip Forsberg as comparisons. Forsberg signed a six-year, $36MM extension last June, worth $6MM annually, while Monahan re-signed for $6.375 per year for seven seasons and Sheifele agreed to $6.125MM a year for the maximum eight seasons. The only problem for Pastrnak and his representation in making those comparisons is the consistency argument. Pastrnak has an impressive 64 points through 68 games so far this season, much like Monahan’s 63 point total last year. However, Monahan also put up 62 points the year before and 34 as a rookie. He was only slightly older than Pastrnak when he agreed to an extension, but had far greater production in his first two seasons when compared to Pastrnak’s back-to-back mid-20’s performances. Scheifele also had a similar season to Pastrnak’s last year with 61 points in 71 games, but he too outperformed the young Czech the prior two seasons – and was two years older – when inking his eight-year mega deal. Like Monahan, Forsberg had consecutive 60+-point seasons before earning his new deal.
The Monahan, Scheifele, and Forsberg comparison works far better for Draisaitl. Now in his third NHL season, but still just 21, Draisaitl leads all impending RFA’s with 70 points on the year, following up his breakout 51-point campaign in 2015-16. With back-to-back strong seasons, like the previously described trio, Draisaitl should be comfortably within the $6-6.5MM annual range for his upcoming contract. The Oilers will have to keep in mind the possible record-setting deal awaiting them in Connor McDavid next year, but will not hesitate to pay Draisaitl, who is already one the best #2 centers in the NHL. While a very different player, Draisaitl’s early career arc closely resembles that of Gaudreau, and “Johnny Hockey” signed on for six more years in Calgary at $6.75 per, so don’t be surprised if Draisaitl actually ends up exceeding the $6-6.5MM annual range in his new deal or agrees to seven or eight years as compensation for a lower yearly value.
So what of Pastrnak? No one doubts that he will continue producing at a high level, especially with Boston’s top offensive stars like Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron, David Krejci, and David Backes signed long-term and in influx of promising talent on it’s way. However, with just one – albeit unbelievable – high-scoring season under his belt, Pastrnak may not be able to crack that $6MM per year mark. Some may point to MacKinnon, the youngest and arguably most talented RFA to re-sign last year, and say that Pastrnak should get the same seven-year contract worth $6.3MM annually. However, MacKinnon was a #1 overall pick and had established himself as a top-line center with a 63-point rookie season in 2013-14, far ahead of where Pastrnak was at that point, which cancels out some of his more recent struggles. Instead, a better comparison is likely Panthers scorers Trocheck and Huberdeau. Like Pastrnak, Trocheck and Huberdeau found only middling success in their first two NHL seasons. Trocheck had a big breakout last year, jumping to 53 points in 76 games, and was rewarded with a six-year deal worth $4.75MM per year. Huberdeau had his breakout in 2014-15 with 54 points and then backed it up 59 points last season, before inking a six-year extension worth $5.9MM annually. What Pastrnak has done this year clearly surpasses anything that the Florida duo have yet to put up and Trocheck and Huberdeau were also two years older than Pastrnak will be when they re-signed, but they set up a more accurate range for what the Bruins wunderkind should expect this summer. Taking likely cap inflation into consideration, Pastrnak is looking at a six-year extension worth $5-6MM per season. Given the Bruins recent issues with retaining young talent, it’s a fair assumption that they won’t play hardball with the young sniper, so expecting the upper side of that scale is perfectly reasonable.
The Case For T.J. Oshie As This Summer’s Top Free Agent
Earlier this year, PHR put together our first draft of the 2017 unrestricted free agent class. Washington Capitals right winger T.J. Oshie finished a respectable fourth on that list, behind Joe Thornton, Alexander Radulov, and, of course, Oshie’s new teammate Kevin Shattenkirk. Those mid-season power rankings were just that, a list based on career performance and the first half of the season. Yet, free agancy often reflects “what have you done for me lately?” rather than a complete analysis of a player’s full body of work, and the second half of the season has been a windfall for Oshie. Is he now the top player on the market this summer?
After last night’s hat trick against the Tampa Bay Lightning, Oshie is now the Capitals leading goal-scorer. Yes, that’s right, Oshie leads the best team in the league in goals, not Alexander Ovechkin. The last time that any player led Washington in goal scoring at this point in the season and wasn’t Ovechkin: Robert Lang in 2003-04. Not only that, Oshie’s 49 points in 58 games makes him the most efficient scorer on the team behind Nicklas Backstrom. Oshie is sniping at a career rate in 2016-17, with a 24.2% shooting percentage, which explains his career-high in goals as well. He also has a career-best +26 rating right now, a function of the Capital’s success but also of the more careful, refined game he has shown this season.
So Oshie is having an excellent year; does that make him the top free agent? No one behind Oshie on our initial list has played significantly better, so it comes down to comparing him against Thornton, Radulov, and Shattenkirk. The first thing that should stick out between Oshie and Thornton is age. Oshie will be 30 years old at the start of the 2017-18 season, whereas Thornton will be 38. Radulov will be just 31, but has just returned to the NHL this season after a long hiatus in the KHL. Oshie and Thornton thus have him beat in terms of career consistency and dependability. If 2016-17 scoring is the main criteria, it’s a close race with Oshie at 49 points, Thornton at 48 points, and Radulov at 47 points, but Oshie has played in fewer games than the others. With an age advantage over Thornton and a consistency advantage over Radulov packaged with a scoring advantage over both, it’s fair to say that Oshie has moved into the top spot among impending free agent forwards. Making that call easier is the fact that both Thornton and Radulov are expected by many to re-sign with their current teams following the Expansion Draft in June and may not even hit the open market with Oshie on July 1st.
So that leaves Oshie vs. Shattenkirk. Especially if Washington wins their first ever Stanley Cup on the backs of these two players, both Oshie and Shattenkirk will be highly sought-after and handsomely paid on July 1st. However, can you make the case that Oshie has surpassed his new teammate in free agent value? Back in January, the PHR writers were in universal agreement that Shattenkirk was the top player available. However, when it came time for the St. Louis Blues to move him at the Trade Deadline, rumors began circulating that many teams saw Shattenkirk as a second-pair guy, were unwilling to part with top prospects and multiple high picks to acquire him, and were not planning on handing him a contract worth $7MM+ per year this summer. The Capitals ended up parting with a package that surprised many as being relatively cheap in return for the star defenseman. Shattenkirk is still the best blue liner on the market and will get his money somewhere, but no such word has come out about Oshie’s free agency prospects. It appears that teams are ready to give the skilled winger whatever he asks, as Oshie has proved time and time again that he is one of the most consistent scorers in the NHL, as well as a powerplay dyanamo and shootout specialist. The simple fact that scoring defense is always in higher demand than scoring forwards may dictate that Shattenkirk remains the top free agent this summer, but don’t be surprised to see Oshie get a similar deal to his teammate and go on to have greater success than Shattenkirk with his new team in the future.