Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Chicago’s long-term goalie situation, the Presidents’ Trophy ‘curse’, and more. (It was also set to feature a discussion on Dylan Holloway’s next contract with a six-year, $7.75MM AAV prediction but the Blues got ahead of that one.) If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s column while we’ll have one more mailbag from this latest call for questions next weekend.
Cla23: Can the Jets actually find a 2C in free agency? Can Brad Lambert and Isak Rosen be second-line players with Perfetti?
By the literal wording of your question, yes, the Jets can find a player who could center their second line in free agency. I’m just not sure that player will be second-line-caliber, however.
Back in March, our Ethan Hetu took a look at the upcoming center UFA class. The marquee names are Charlie Coyle (who had a solid year in Columbus but some iffier seasons before that) and Evgeni Malkin (who isn’t leaving Pittsburgh for Winnipeg). The next tier were Boone Jenner (probably more of a 3C at this point and he plays a lot on the wing), Scott Laughton (who spent a lot of time on the fourth line while with Toronto), and Jonathan Toews (who wound up going from the 2C at one point to the 4C role with the Jets). It goes downhill from there. Unless they win a bidding war for Coyle, they’re going to have a hard time filling that spot through the UFA market.
Lambert had top-six upside when he was drafted if everything panned out development-wise and even after his first year in Manitoba, he still had it. The last two years have been a struggle though, even with him securing a regular role down the stretch. It’s possible that he gets to a second-line level but I wouldn’t be predicting it. Rosen at least has a better track record of being a top-line threat in the minors but there’s a reason Buffalo never gave him any sort of extended look. They thought he was one of those (to borrow a baseball term) Quad-A guys who are too good for the minors but not good enough to play an impactful role at the top level. I don’t think he’s a second liner either but maybe a third liner with some offensive skill could still be doable. That would still help a bit, at least.
Unclemike1526: The Hawks’ goalie situation is in a transition period right now. Knight is now a known commodity but is he a definite 1 or a 1A in a perfect world? He has solid technique but isn’t the biggest guy in the world. I was on the fence about Gajan but after seeing him in the NCAA tournament, I’m on board. Less sure about Commesso and Soderblom is bad. Who is the best Scandinavian G the Hawks could draft in the 2nd round who could play in the SHL and not have Gajan and him trip over each other? Thanks.
I think it’s fair to say that the Blackhawks view Spencer Knight as their starter of the future. I think he can be that for them. He’s not going to be a Vezina contender year after year but if he’s a top-10 or top-15 goalie in his prime, I think they’d be just fine with that. I suspect they think they have the backup in the organization at the moment already. I expect Arvid Soderblom to get one more look and give Drew Commesso another full year in the minors where he can split time with Adam Gajan. Commesso then might get a shot at the backup role in 2027-28 with the team pivoting to a Plan B if he isn’t ready or struggles. Gajan will probably need some time.
As for the draft, this is not a particularly good group of Scandinavian netminders. Douglas Nilsson and Viggo Tamm should be picked but the second round might be early for them. I like the idea of adding another goalie at some point, however, to stagger the prospects a bit. I’d be more inclined to look to Russia where Dmitri Borichev and Yegor Rybkin stand out. Some rankings have Borichev as a possible late first-rounder while teams will see Rybkin’s size (6’7) and want to use an early pick on him; he could be a second-rounder as a result.
random comment guy: It’s time for KD and the Hawks to poop or get off the pot. Do you see any big signings this offseason? Do you see them making any big trades? If they don’t get one of the top two picks, who do you see them drafting (or trading it away)?
I don’t expect any big signings from Chicago this year as frankly, there aren’t many players available who would qualify as big signings. Alex Tuch would be a nice addition to the top line and they have the cap space to get it done but unless they’re well above the market value, I could see Tuch wanting to sign with more of a contending team if he doesn’t ultimately re-up with Buffalo. Darren Raddysh is the top blueliner available. I think he stays in Tampa Bay, though, which would take him off the table. I could, however, see them trying to sign someone like John Carlson to a pricey short-term deal to help insulate and mentor Artyom Levshunov and Sam Rinzel while dragging up the floor of the group a bit. Whether it’s him or someone else, I suspect they’re going to try to bring in some veteran upgrades.
I think GM Kyle Davidson will try to make a big swing on the trade front, however. When I was doing their Offseason Checklist, the one theme that kept coming up was their young depth and deep draft pick cupboards. Those are great to have but not all of those pieces are going to be part of Chicago’s future. Packaging a promising young center, maybe a young defender, and a high draft pick is a package that should land them a long-term piece of significance. Whether it’s on the wing or the back end remains to be seen but if there’s a big fish that fits the age group of their core who moves this year, I expect the Blackhawks to be big bidders.
On the draft front, I don’t see them trading the pick away if they’re not in the top two. That is, unless they’re getting about a 20 or 21-year-old high draft pick who is already established in the NHL and the other team probably wouldn’t do that. Caleb Malhotra is quickly rising up draft boards but center is their strong spot (unless they move some players out in trades) so I don’t think they’d lean there. Not knowing where exactly they land in this scenario, I could see Keaton Verhoeff being the target. They like college players and big, all-around right-shot defenders are hard to come by (even if they already have two). In terms of who the most valuable asset could be beyond the top two, Verhoeff fits the profile if he develops to his full potential so I think they take the surplus there and deal with the ‘problem’ of maybe having too many down the road with a big trade.
Pyramid Headcrab: What teams that missed the playoffs this year do you suspect will git ‘er done next season?
Who’s most likely to make a brain-dead long-term signing that handcuffs the team?
Who’s going to have the most ill-advised rebuild?
For the first question, it’s hard not to pick the Panthers. They’ve earned the benefit of the doubt and can’t possibly have more injury woes next season than this year. As long as they get their goaltending settled, I think they’re back in. I’m intrigued to see if Rick Bowness’ culture change promise yields some positive results; if so, I suspect the Blue Jackets can get in this time. Something tells me the Sharks will make a big swing this summer that could sneak them into a Wild Card spot. I’m tempted to put the Jets here (under the ‘things can’t go this bad again’ category) but I want to see what they can do in the offseason. Really, all of these picks, other than maybe Florida, could change depending on the roster activity over the next couple of months.
For the second question, this isn’t necessarily as likely to happen moving forward given the big jumps coming to the salary cap. One bad signing shouldn’t handcuff a team unless it’s already cap-strapped. Upon my first read, the Rangers and Kraken came to mind as teams that might make a desperate move that backfires but they have the cap flexibility to overcome a bad signing like that. The only teams that can be handcuffed in this question are those that are the tightest to the 2026-27 Upper Limit. Of those, I’d have to pick Vegas. They swing big all the time but have limited flexibility. Eventually, they could miss on one and with so much of their team locked up long-term, missing on a big swing would hurt them more than others.
I’ll go with Vancouver. They’ve been directionless for the last couple of years and now have a lot of spots to fill along with some above-market contracts that are going to be hard to move. They’ll fill one of those needs at the draft but it’s going to take a while if all goes right for them to turn things around. With how odd this GM search has been, I’m not overly confident that there won’t be some stumbles along the way that lengthens the rebuild.
Nha Trang: Hah, this isn’t a question so much as an observation: how many of the pundits who bleat about the so-called “President’s Trophy curse” have bothered to check on the Cup-winning odds of the *second* place regular season team? Or the third? Or the fourth?
The President’s Trophy has been awarded 40 times in total and we know the subsequent Cup winner for 39 of those; we’ll see how Colorado fares in June, should they get that far. Let’s look at the distribution and percentages (rounded to the nearest tenth so no, it doesn’t quite add to precisely 100%) of Cup winners over that time based on their regular-season finishes.
1st: 8 winners (20.5%)
2nd: 4 winners (10.3%)
3rd: 3 winners (7.7%)
4th: 6 winners (15.4%)
5th: 4 winners (10.3%)
6th: 3 winners (7.7%)
7th: 4 winners (10.3%)
8th: 2 winners (5.1%)
9th: 1 winner (2.6%)
10th: 1 winner (2.6%)
11th: 1 winner (2.6%)
12th: 1 winner (2.6%)
13th: 1 winner (2.6%)
14th: 0 winners
15th: 0 winners
16th: 0 winners
If you ask me, first overall is still statistically the best spot to be, even if it’s still a roughly four-in-five chance that they won’t win the Cup. I will note, however, that since the salary cap came into effect, only two Presidents’ Trophy winners have won (Detroit in 2008 and Chicago in 2013). I’m not one who subscribes to the ‘curse’ theory given the general parity in the NHL but 12 years and counting since a first-overall team won the Stanley Cup is something.
Jolly Roger: Has there been any investigation, suspicion, controversy or rumor about match-fixing in the NHL or at any other level in professional, collegial, or amateur hockey in any country, including misconducts by officials?
Within the last few years, a pair of wingers were investigated and cleared amidst gambling allegations: Vancouver’s Evander Kane and Ottawa’s Arthur Kaliyev, the latter coming just this season. That isn’t the exact same thing as match-fixing but some like to connect the two.
Outside the NHL, there was a Belarus Extraliga game in which seven players admitted to being approached about manipulating the outcome of the game and that they accepted. The players – five Belarusian and two Russian – were suspended by the IIHF but their names were not published. The incident occurred in a matchup between Dynamo Molodechno and Mogilyov. Five months later, IK Bjorkloven in Sweden’s Allsvenskan level (second-tier) was investigated amongst match-fixing allegations but was ultimately cleared. They had a 3-0 lead in the game before allowing eight unanswered to Mora.
Photo courtesy of Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images.
Can’t wait to see what idiotic GMs engage in a bidding war for Charlie Coyle.
I knew as soon as I asked about Holloway the nail was already in the coffin for the question.