PHR Mailbag

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include PTO candidates, St. Louis’ now-vacated captaincy, the state of the back end for the Rangers, Zdeno Chara’s future, and the recently-completed 2020 NHL Entry Draft.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back for it in last week’s mailbag.

lapcheung39: Which player will most likely get a contract or PTO from teams that are dealing with a depleted roster?

There are going to be a lot of teams looking for players on PTO agreements between now and training camp.  Some teams will be looking to try to fill the last roster spot or two while others may have interest in bringing some in for a potential taxi squad in case the NHL does like MLB did this past season in an effort to try to reduce the amount of shuffling with the farm teams.  On the flip side, many players will be looking for one of those in a last-ditch effort to try to catch on somewhere, especially with opportunities overseas largely dried up at the moment.  It’s hard to single out a particular player who might get one as there will undoubtedly be dozens handed out but here are a few that could be in that situation among players that suited up at in least 50 NHL games last season.

Madison Bowey – Detroit opted to non-tender him this offseason to avoid the arbitration process and the fact he hasn’t signed elsewhere yet is notable.  Bowey’s only 25 and is a right-shot option while his price tag should be low.  Given the dearth of righties with experience out there, it’s reasonable to think he should have signed already.  Since he hasn’t, it seems like teams will be waiting to see if he’ll accept a tryout first instead of committing guaranteed money now.

Michael Frolik – The winger had a really tough year with both Calgary and Buffalo (especially when compared to his then-$4.3MM price tag) but he’s only one season removed from a 34-point campaign.  There has been overseas interest but by all accounts, Frolik wants to take another run at an NHL spot and if he’s willing to take a lesser role, there should be some takers.

Tim Schaller – Another one that was overpaid on his last deal, Schaller has quietly spent most of the past four years in the NHL (241 games played in that span), mostly in a fourth line role.  If he wants to hang around and fight for a 12th or 13th forward spot on a roster, he will quite likely have to do it via the PTO route as it’s hard to see him getting a guaranteed contract with quite a few players still unsigned.

Again, the PTO market is very likely going to be busier than normal and with the state of the market being what it is at the moment, it wouldn’t be surprising to see a notable player or two be forced to go that route.

vincent k. mcmahon: With Alex Pietrangelo now gone, who will be the new Blues captain? I think Ryan O’Reilly should be at the top of the pecking order.

That seems like the logical choice.  Alex Steen was the other alternate captain and he’s unlikely to have much of a role next season and almost certainly won’t be brought back as a free agent after that so there’s no point in going that route.  The injury factor would take Vladimir Tarasenko out of the equation as well even though he’s been there for a while.

Naming a captain isn’t something a team wants to do every couple of years so you either name a budding star that you’re building around or a veteran that’s signed for a while.  They don’t really have anyone in the first category and among the veterans, it’s hard to see them handing it to one of Pietrangelo’s replacements in Justin Faulk or Torey Krug.  Up front, there are only three veterans signed for three years (or more) in O’Reilly, Brayden Schenn, and Oskar Sundqvist.  It’s safe to rule Sundqvist out so that leaves Schenn who is signed for six more years instead of just three for O’Reilly.

Considering O’Reilly already wears the ‘A’, he’s the front-runner for the spot.  Beyond him, Schenn is the only other one that seems somewhat likely to get that role (if they opt to name a new captain at all).

acarneglia: What’s next for the Rangers rebuild?

@Sully_from: How do you see the Rangers D playing out, Trouba, Fox, DeAngelo, Ryan Lindgren, Libor Hajek, K’Andre Miller, and Nils Lundkvist are eight players for six spots not to mention Brendan Smith. Who gets traded, position changed?

Getting a long-term second center would be ideal but it’s probably not going to be Ryan Strome and Filip Chytil isn’t ready for that role yet.  I’d like to see him get eased into that role a bit next year to help try to see if he can fill that hole in the future so that’s one thing I think they could do next season.

The other hole of note is on the left side of their back end.  As the second question notes, the strength of New York’s defense both in terms of quality and quantity is right-shot defenders.  It’s great to have that much depth on that side (especially given the fact it’s the harder of the two sides to get quality depth for) but at some point, that needs to be spun off to fill a weakness.  If it’s not a new 2C, flipping an impact righty for an impact left on the blueline is a logical next step to take for GM Jeff Gorton.

As for the current state of their back end, I don’t think much of anything is going to happen unless the RD for LD trade comes up.  Lundkvist is signed with SHL Lulea for the entire season and while that presents the opportunity for him to join New York midseason potentially given the later start to the NHL season, that won’t affect anything now.  Miller will likely need some time with AHL Hartford as well.  They’ve hedged their bets with adding veterans Jack Johnson and Anthony Bitetto who will likely serve as placeholders for the youngsters (which could include Hajek if he needs more time).  Having Smith as someone that can play on the third pairing or the wing will be handy and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him shift between the two roles again.  Lindgren will get a bigger role next season and Johnson may have to play more than a nominal role until one of Miller or Hajek is ready to push him down a pairing.

bigalval: Chara signs with the Kings on a one-year deal and a coaching job when he retires?

I have to admit, when I thought of possible non-Boston landing spots for Chara, Los Angeles was not on my radar but the idea does make some sense.  There are definitely openings on their back end and having him around to work with some of their youngsters like Michael Anderson and Tobias Bjornfot would certainly be beneficial.  As those two improve, then Chara could be slid down into a lesser role which is probably more ideal for him at this stage of his career.

The question I have is that if he decides to leave Boston (and I’m only saying if to that one as it’s quite possible he stays in the end), does he really want to go to a rebuilding team that doesn’t seem to have an eye on making the playoffs next season?  Or would he rather go to a contender, even if it means more of a restricted role?

If this was to happen, I wonder if Chara would go in to the deal knowing that he’d be likely to be traded closer to the trade deadline where he could give the Kings a shortlist of teams he’d be willing to go to.  (If there is enough interest in him, some sort of no-trade clause would seemingly be likely.)  If that’s something either side isn’t open to doing, then it’d be difficult to see a path for Chara to play there next season.

backhandinbaptist: Is there a reason Noel Gunler fell out of the first round? Fantasy-wise Dobber has him in top 10, and central scouting has him as #9 among EU skaters, but Dobber did mention there were perceived (but mainly false according to them) attitude issues. Any reasons he won’t turn into a top-level offensive talent as many scouts have him pegged as?

The Mistake of Giving Eugene Melnyk a Liver Transplant: Who were the biggest steals in the draft? Yes, I know we won’t be able to adequately judge for years but come on it’s October and there is no hockey!

There are some prospects where scouts are split on the overall upside and Gunler fits into that category.  Rankings were all over the board with him (his CSB rating when coupled with the others put him in a late 1st/early 2nd range) and while there is some offensive upside (I wouldn’t go as far as calling it top-level though), the rest of his game (defense, skating, and shift-to-shift consistency) seems to be questioned.  Not having a chance to play in the World Juniors may have raised a few eyebrows as well and presented one of those ‘what do they know that we don’t’ type of situations that can send a player dropping.  Having said that, getting him at 41 was a great pick in my books and Carolina getting him and Seth Jarvis with their top two selections was a fantastic start to their draft.

As for steals, Hendrix Lapierre at 22 qualifies if he can stay healthy.  It’s a big if considering everything he went through last year but he went in looking like a top-ten talent.  Assuming he does stay healthy, that should be a good value selection for Washington and with their top centers locked up for a while, they can afford to bring him along slowly.

A little further down is Florida’s selection of Ty Smilanic at 74.  He’s another player that was limited by injuries but profiled to be a higher pick than that heading into the season.  He needs a fair bit of development still and going the college route will afford him the longer opportunity to do so.  If he can get back to that better level, he could be a middle-six forward which would be a nice pickup near the middle of the third round.

I’d also throw Martin Chromiak at 128 to the Kings in there.  There is a lot of uncertainly with him having only played half a year in the OHL having played in the Extraliga before that.  That wasn’t a great developmental environment for him and likely caused part of his drop but he’s someone that I thought was going to be off the board well before that spot.  In the fifth round, it’s not even a gamble at that point but there is certainly some upside.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Buffalo defensemen, Don Sweeney’s tenure in Boston, the new voice of NBC hockey, the relative inactivity in Columbus after freeing up cap room, Mike Hoffman’s fit with a rebuilding team, and Nashville’s need for forward help.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s edition.

LarryJ4: What is the holdup for Buffalo moving Ristolainen or Miller? Gotta think this is what is delaying a move for a more capable goalie (Varlamov, Korpisalo, Kuemper) to pair up with Ullmark.

I have to admit, I don’t see a goalie move for them coming this offseason.  There’s definitely a need to upgrade on the Linus Ullmark–Carter Hutton tandem but I believe they still think that Ullmark has some untapped upside yet.  The challenge is that Hutton and his $2.75MM cap hit need to go in any trade.  If Arizona wanted to move Darcy Kuemper, part of the impetus for doing so would be considerable cap savings.  They can’t get that by taking Hutton back.  That takes a trade with Columbus out of the equation as well and it’s doubtful that the Islanders would move Semyon Varlamov until they see if Ilya Sorokin is indeed ready to be a starter in the NHL.  He hasn’t played a second in this league yet though so the time isn’t right to trade him.

Let’s look at the defensemen now, beginning with Miller.  His name has been in trade speculation dating back to last year when it was clear he wasn’t a great fit with Buffalo.  They didn’t find a taker then when teams believed they had more flexibility than they do now.  Perhaps there’s a lateral swap for another defenseman but I’d put better odds on him finding his bearings in his season year with the Sabres than landing a considerable upgrade.  At the very least, a third-pairing defenseman isn’t going to be a centerpiece of a trade for a starting goalie.

Ristolainen’s a bit more interesting in that he is such a polarizing player.  He has unquestionable offensive skill but while his play in his own end was better last year under Ralph Krueger, it still wasn’t great.  I suspect they believe he’ll improve in his second season with Krueger behind the bench so I don’t think they want to move him even though there may be some teams that look at Ristolainen and think they can ‘fix’ his defensive issues.  But again, that would be more of a lateral swap than a move for a goalie.

Long story short, I expect Buffalo to give Ullmark a bigger portion of the workload next season and decide if he’s part of their long-term plans or if they have to change things up for 2021-22 where they may want to try their hand at the free agent market to fill that spot.

FireDonny: How is it possible for a GM to strike out on SO many high first-round picks, late 1st reaches (unskilled Trent Frederic) and not be fired? Not to mention his genius plan to sign bottom roster filler at the start of free agency while others sign stars. I’m sick of Dommy Moore’s, McKegg’s, the ghost of Kevan Miller, etc. Smith signing not enough.

Do you think Sweeney needs to make a real move to save his job? Or did Jacobs taking a bath on some property handcuff him? They can all go but Don can’t draft or trade.

VonBrewski: Is Don Sweeney the worst GM in Hockey? They supposedly have a lot more cap space than most teams. Neely says after they are eliminated that they need to get tougher and they need more scoring. They were ready to change the roster to compete for a cup.

Free agency comes and (sorry Smith, I like you as a player) *POOF* no one traded, re-signing most players, Krug gone (knew it and was ok with it) But where is the change? Where is the infusion? I have been a Bruins fan since the ’70s and I swear we are back to the Harry Sinden/Mike O’Connell days….suck, suck, suck!!!

It hasn’t been a particularly fun offseason for Boston, to say the least.  I like the addition of Craig Smith – he’s a capable middle-six forward and $3.1MM is a nice price tag.  But it goes downhill after that with nothing being done to replace Torey Krug on the left side of their back end while Zdeno Chara is unsigned as well (though he could return).  And then there are the questions regarding the availability of Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak to start next season after their recent surgeries.  I think they have a move of note left in them (not a huge splash but an impact player being added) and they’ll need to go short-term with Jake DeBrusk to make that happen and stay cap-compliant.  They’ll be near the Upper Limit when all is said and done.

I haven’t been a big fan of their draft strategy either going back to their three straight first-round picks in 2015.  DeBrusk is a decent player but they needed to hit on two of those at least.  And to be fair, they’ve only had one first-round pick in the last three years while being short on picks in general which has contributed to a weakening farm system.  I can’t lay all of that on Sweeney as while general managers select the scouting staff, it’s usually the scouts that call the shots on the draft picks or at least have heavy influence.  And avoiding the CHL altogether in four of their last five drafts is a bit of a strange strategy although it does afford more time to get a better feel for who to sign and who to let go.

I wouldn’t call Sweeney the worst GM in hockey but I do think it’s fair to suggest that he should be feeling a little pressure.  The cap levelling out sealed their fate with Krug but this is a core that’s built to win now.  Once their window closes and the focus shifts to the next group of players to build around, is Sweeney the one to be calling the shots on that?  He’ll need some better success in player development over the next couple of years to help make his case.  In the meantime, he needs to find a notable player to add to their roster and I think he’ll accomplish that.

PensJacksCanes: The biggest free agent who is the best at his position is still unsigned. With Mike Emrick retiring will UFA John Forslund become the voice of the NHL?

First off, a tip of the hat to Emrick who had an outstanding career and as a writer, I appreciate how he incorporated so many different synonyms into his calls.  I know his phraseology for calling routine plays with some variety wasn’t for everyone but between that, his overall game-calling skills, and his energy, he was one of a kind and his shoes will be tough to fill.

My first thought upon hearing the news was that Forslund makes sense.  He already had a notable role on national broadcasts and he’s no longer the voice of the Hurricanes which still feels odd typing.  He’s a contender if nothing else although it wouldn’t shock me either if there wasn’t an immediate full-time replacement.  They have a good stable of broadcasters to draw from and it’s possible that they just go with those without naming a successor.

Maybe it’s just me trying to think outside of the box but I don’t think it’s just NBC that will have a say in this.  The national TV deal in the United States is up soon and there will be more contenders for those rights than in past negotiations given the value of live sports content.  If the NHL has a certain preference for someone in the number one spot, I could see NBC going with whoever that is in the hopes of currying favor in talks for those national TV rights.

Baji Kimran: I’m a Blue Jackets fan and I can’t see them acquiring Patrik Laine. They are in a position where they must take care of Pierre-Luc Dubois first and signing him may take a while. They must make sure that if any club extends Dubois an offer sheet that they are in a position to match it. Save for maybe signing Mikael Granlund if he’s still available, I think they’re done for the time being. I think once the Jackets are in a position to address Laine, he will be long gone. Does my assessment seem reasonable to you?

I think you’re on the right track.  I know that GM Jarmo Kekalainen has suggested that part of the impetus for clearing up cap room with their recent moves was to hedge against an offer sheet for Dubois but I think that threat has come and gone.  How many teams have enough cap space left to make a real push?  Of those, how many have the budget to do so?  Do they have their own picks and a deep enough prospect pool to justify going that route?  There was a time where the possibility of an offer sheet for Dubois was plausible but I think that time has passed.  If anyone is eyeing one now, the focus should be squarely on Tampa Bay.

Depending on what Vladislav Gavrikov gets as he’s also unsigned, I agree that they’re basically done other than maybe one more cheap depth upgrade.  By the time Dubois and Gavrikov are signed, most of the $12.9MM in projected cap space they’ll have left (per CapFriendly) will be gone.  Accordingly, I’m not sure they’ll have the space to bring Granlund in without moving someone else out first which is something that’s a lot easier said than done in this marketplace.

Laine with the Blue Jackets would be interesting.  He’d certainly give them a boost offensively but he and John Tortorella could be a risky match.  However, I don’t think Laine is fit for them from a financial perspective.  I expect Kekalainen to try to set Dubois’ deal as the ceiling for Columbus forwards.  Laine, a restricted free agent with arbitration rights next summer, is almost certainly going to come in higher than what Dubois will get.  It’s hard to make that case to Dubois with Laine in the fold and if they were to acquire him after getting that contract done, it’d be a bit of an insult to their top center.  Having said all that, I’m still not certain that Laine winds up moving; I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s still with Winnipeg next season.

tigers22: Would the Red Wings be better off giving Mike Hoffman a one-year, $6MM deal and see what they can get at the deadline rather than trading for Tyler Johnson and a pick?

It’d be much better from Detroit’s perspective.  They’d get a better half-season contribution from Hoffman than they would from Johnson and if they were willing to retain on the deal at the deadline, getting him at $3MM would be very appealing, especially when a lot of contenders will have minimal cap space.  They could land a pretty good return in that scenario.

The question, for me, is if Hoffman would be willing to sign somewhere where he knows he’s going to be dealt a few months later.  He’s certainly willing to take a one-year contract but I think his preference would be to sign with a team that will keep him around all year.  Hoffman would certainly get a chance to put up some good numbers in a big role with the Red Wings which might help his case a year from now but a sign and eventual trade scenario is probably not one he wants to take unless talks with other teams stall out.

Johnson’s a nice player but with Tampa Bay needing a team to assume the four years remaining on his deal with a $5MM AAV in full, it would require quite the inducement to do so.  Give me the better player on a short-term deal anytime in that scenario.

@bwiz77: The Preds need a proven top-six winger to play with Duchene. Do you think that is coming via a UFA signing or trade?

I agree that there’s a need but unless it’s Hoffman, I’m not convinced that there’s an upgrade move coming.  The other free agent forward options aren’t exactly proven other than Granlund who has been ruled out of returning already.  GM David Poile has said that he wants to give his prospects a chance and I think their best-case scenario is that Eeli Tolvanen eventually steps into that role, even if there are some growing pains along the way.

Assuming Nashville is able and willing to use their full remaining cap space, the trade market may be the better way to go.  While teams looking to shed money would prefer not to move impact players to do so, that could change as we get closer to the start of next season, whenever that winds up being.  Deadlines force activity and GMs often want to wait until the last minute before pulling the trigger.

If the Predators can land Hoffman, that would fill the void, albeit for the short term since it doesn’t sound like a lucrative long-term deal is on the horizon for him.  But if he goes elsewhere, patience may be key here in terms of either waiting out the trade market or hoping that a prospect steps up during the season and fills that spot from within.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

The frenzy of free agency has slowed considerably in the last several days as teams try to figure out how all the pieces fit together. Alex Pietrangelo is headed to the strip, while Torey Krug takes his place in St. Louis. There are still several difference-makers available on the open market, but who knows when they’ll actually decide on a place to play next season. Months remain before training camps even open, with no expectation of games before the end of the year.

With that in mind, it’s time to run another edition of the PHR mailbag.

If you missed our last one before the offseason began, it was split into two parts you can read here and here. In the first, Brian gave some predictions for some of the Western Conference contenders, while also giving his thoughts on the state of officiating in the NHL. In the second, he correctly predicted that Nikita Zadorov would be elsewhere when the 2020-21 season began, before discussing the future of the NHL and the potential of having a full season with no fans in the buildings.

Topics in this edition of PHR Mailbag include Nikita Zadorov’s future in Colorado, Taylor Hall’s next deal, a struggling Panthers back end, the defensive situation for the Rangers, Detroit’s rebuild, and the uncertainty of next season.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

M34: What’s the future look like for Nikita Zadorov?

This feels like it’s an almost annual question as Zadorov has seemingly been on thin ice in Colorado for a while.  Yet, each time, he winds up staying with the Avs in the same role that he has basically had since he got there – splitting time between a fourth and fifth defensive spot.  This time, it at least feels a bit different.

For starters, Ryan Graves has established himself as a good partner with Cale Makar.  Ian Cole is still signed and Bowen Byram is likely to push for a full-time spot as well.  Those are three left-shot blueliners like Zadorov.  Graves and Cole are clearly ahead of Zadorov on the depth chart and while Byram could start in the minors which would keep Zadorov’s spot on the third pairing open, they probably won’t want to be in a situation where Zadorov winds up starting as the seventh defender either.

The 25-year-old is owed a $3.2MM qualifying offer which is a bit pricey for someone in his role and in this marketplace.  But at the same time, it’s one that they can afford to tender for this season as they have plenty of short-term cap room so I think that option is unlikely.  They’re not in a spot where they have to trade Zadorov but if Byram beats him out for a spot in the lineup in training camp, it’ll be a lot harder to move him then than it is now.  And one year from now with Makar and Gabriel Landeskog needing new deals, Zadorov will become a luxury that they can’t afford.  Accordingly, between that and a relatively soft UFA crop of left-shot defenders, the time is right for Colorado to try to move him out and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him somewhere else when the puck drops on 2020-21.

aloop: It’s highly doubtful that Hall winds up in Arizona, with the internal cap + the Yotes current cap issues. Do you think Hall takes a lower one year salary to join a contender in hopes of a deep playoff run and winning a cup? Or does he sign a longer contract with a team on the rise in hopes that they can make the playoffs consistently and win the Cup during the duration of his contract?

A top free agent (and Hall is the top forward available) rarely signs a short-term contract so I’d put the odds on that happening as fairly low.  But there certainly is a case to be made that Hall could go that route, especially with his comments about how a winning environment will be quite important to him.  If it was to happen though, I could see him signing with a team like Colorado with a higher AAV than he’d get on a long-term deal as there has to be some sort of trade-off for foregoing the job security that a long-term contract would provide.

It’s worth noting that Hall’s value has taken a hit lately as well.  He’s only two years removed from his Hart Trophy in 2017-18 but those two seasons have been underwhelming and the change of scenery from New Jersey to Arizona didn’t exactly give him a boost either.

Let’s say he does the one-year deal with a contender and he winds up in the 50-60 point range again.  Now, Hall enters the 2021 market heading into his age-30 year with three straight seasons of fringe front line production.  The salary cap will still probably be $81.5MM and more teams will be in cap trouble than there are now.  The earnings potential in that situation will be quite a bit lower than it is now so there would certainly be some risk by going that route.  On the other hand, a stronger season with a contender could restore some value so there is a potential benefit to that approach as well.

In the end, it’s hard to pass up the type of security that a long-term deal can provide.  Hall can probably get a max-term deal next month at a rate that’s still a lot higher than the $6MM he had as a cap hit for the past seven years, even in this marketplace.  Maybe he takes a bit less than top dollar to land in a more competitive environment but that’s about the only ‘cut’ he’ll take in free agency.

The Mistake of Giving Eugene Melnyk a Liver Transplant: What is up with Florida’s defense; on paper it seems like they should be at least average. Is this a problem where each individual part does not fit well together or are there more factors at play?

I’ve wondered that myself for a while now and look no further than the recently-traded Mike Matheson.  At one point, he looked like a long-term fixture on their second pairing but he wound up being used on the wing at times this season and was even healthy scratched to the point where they had to trade him in a swap of cap dumps.

It’s hardly just him either.  Aaron Ekblad is a solid blueliner but hasn’t ascended to that true number one defenseman role that his draft status (first overall in 2014) suggested he’d become.  He’s a top-pairing player but in an ideal situation, he’s more of a number two than a number one.  Keith Yandle remains strong offensively but his play in his own end has always been shaky while Anton Stralman made some sense as someone that could try to stabilize things but that didn’t exactly happen.  The parts are there but it feels like adding one good complementary player could make a huge difference.

Of course, they’re hardly the only team that would want to do something like that this offseason and amidst rumors that the team is trying to cut payroll, acquiring that particular piece could be tricky for new GM Bill Zito.  But if the Panthers want to get out of the middle zone where they’re not good enough yet to contend, they’re going to need to find a way to get that done.

pitmanrich: How do you see Jacques Martin doing as an assistant coach for the defense on the Rangers? Lindy Ruff got a lot of stick but most of their talented d-men are young offensive players plus Staal and Smith’s best days are long gone.  Do they need to sign a veteran stay at home d-man to help suppress the number of shots they give up which surely played a part in Lundqvist’s dramatic loss of form over the last 18 months?

When it comes to assistant coaches, I don’t think they move the needle all that much unless there’s a drastic system change that accompanies it.  Ruff’s departure came from him leaving to take the New Jersey job and not as an overhaul of New York’s coaching staff.  David Quinn is still calling the shots so their system probably isn’t going to change enough for Martin to have any significant effect on them one way or the other.

Are the Rangers ready to push themselves back into legitimate playoff contention now?  That’s the question that needs to be answered to answer the second part of your query.  If they think their time is now, the answer is yes, they should be looking to add a veteran that can shore up their top four.  Staal is better in a limited role and Smith is a possible buyout candidate to free up a bit of cap space this offseason.  Getting someone capable of logging 20 or more minutes a night on the left side would be a huge boost to their playoff chances.

But if the answer is no and they think they’re still a year away with top youngsters Igor Shesterkin, Kaapo Kakko, and Alexis Lafreniere (it’s pretty safe to slot him in here even though he won’t be a Ranger for another week and a half) needing some more development before contention, then I wouldn’t add a veteran defender.  Use next season to get a better read on Ryan Lindgren’s upside as well as K’Andre Miller, Yegor Rekov, and Libor Hajek.  Over the long haul, they’d be better off for it.

CoachWall: Do the Rangers trade high on Anthony DeAngelo? He will cost some big bucks and is blocking younger players. They have so much young talent on defense, they could turn him into a number two center.

Last offseason, the Rangers held all the cards with DeAngelo and basically forced him into taking just above his qualifying offer.  A 53-point season was quite a response and with salary arbitration eligibility now, he has put himself in a great situation to land a pricey contract that New York may have difficulty fitting into their current salary structure.  Trading high would make some sense but I’m not sure the market for him is going to be all that strong.

Was his season a sign of things to come or a situation where everything broke his way and his production will dip closer to his 30-point year in 2018-19?  That may give some teams some pause.  He’s also someone that two other teams had already given up on him (Tampa Bay and Arizona) which will have some teams wondering what happened.  That’s not to say that a deal won’t happen and there will be some interest but his market might be as robust as it might seem.  At the very least, DeAngelo’s fate will probably have to be decided after Minnesota makes as a decision on Mathew Dumba.  With the longer track record and his ability to play a bit higher in the lineup than DeAngelo, he will be the prime target for teams looking to upgrade the right side of their defense.

I’m also not certain that he’s blocking anyone at the moment.  While the Rangers have Miller, Rekov, and Hajek that could make a push for playing time next season, they’re all left-shot defenders so DeAngelo’s presence shouldn’t necessarily affect them too much.  Yes, Nils Lundkvist is in the system as well but he’s staying there for the upcoming season.  Once he signs, then DeAngelo may be blocking him (with Jacob Trouba and Adam Fox being the other righties) but we’re at least a year away from that happening.

There isn’t a pressing need to move DeAngelo but if they can use him to fill their second center spot, it would probably be a deal worth making for GM Jeff Gorton.

tigers22: Would a trade of Montreal’s #1 draft pick to Detroit for Anthony Mantha work for both teams? Give Montreal another scorer and Detroit another draft pick for the rebuild.

I like the deal from Montreal’s perspective but I don’t see a great case from Detroit’s point of view unless Mantha’s asking price is way too high.  The Canadiens briefly held the ninth-overall pick but that’s no longer the case.  Instead, they’re picking 16th having upset Pittsburgh in the Qualifying Round.

Mantha’s free agent case is a bit of a tricky one considering he has missed a lot of time due to injury over the last two seasons.  He has been quite productive when healthy but making a long-term commitment to someone that has missed a fair bit of time lately does carry some risk.  And while the 26-year-old produced like a top liner this season, his numbers have been closer to that of a second liner.

So let’s put Mantha in a 45-60 point range to allow for a bit of improvement still if he stays healthy (he played at a 72-point pace this season so the top end may even be a bit low).  Is Detroit going to get someone better than that with the 16th pick?  Chances are that a player or two picked after that will get to that level but the odds of getting a top-six forward in the middle of the first round aren’t great.  Now if you’re Detroit, you’re looking at a talent downgrade which isn’t ideal.

Mantha’s still young enough to be part of Detroit’s core group when they come out of this rebuilding phase so he’s someone they should be building around, not sending away for a lottery ticket that will be a long away from getting to Mantha’s level.

Read more

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Winnipeg’s upcoming offseason, underachieving veterans in Philadelphia, Steven Stamkos’ future in Tampa Bay, what’s next for Tuukka Rask, big game shopping for Colorado, Vancouver’s free agents, and the consistent inconsistency of officiating.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s edition.

Dougster: What do you see the Winnipeg Jets doing?

I don’t think they’re going to do a whole lot.  I know that seeing Patrik Laine and Nikolaj Ehlers in trade speculation has some thinking that GM Kevin Cheveldayoff is going to make some big changes to his roster but that goes against his general philosophy.  Since going to Winnipeg, slow and steady has been the mantra with trying to add a key rental when the time is right.  I can’t see that changing and with Laine’s contract expiring next offseason, they’re probably going to try to limit their multi-year commitments.

So with that in mind, I think their top priority will be trying to add some center insurance.  Bryan Little’s future is murky at best and while Blake Wheeler can shift to the middle, doing so takes him off their top line.  Andrew Copp and Adam Lowry have shown flashes of being ready for a bigger role but they’d feel a lot better with someone more proven in there.  A rental player makes a lot of sense here and I wouldn’t be surprised if they inquired about Paul Stastny.  He’s familiar with Winnipeg’s system and had some success there before while Vegas will likely need to clear money if they extend Robin Lehner.  If they add a veteran and Little is able to play after all, too much center depth is a ‘problem’ that every team would like to have.

If they’re going to add anyone on a multi-year deal, it’s probably on the back end.  While Neal Pionk had a strong first season, he was effectively the only impact replacement for Jacob Trouba, Ben Chiarot, Tyler Myers, and Dustin Byfuglien.  The Jets patched things together this season but some more stability there would go a long way.

Beyond that, I think they’ll try to clear Mathieu Perreault’s deal (perhaps as salary ballast in a trade for one of the above elements) but with many other teams wanting to clear money, that’s far from a guarantee.  They’ll need to sign a new backup goalie (there are plenty of pure backups available in free agency) and fill out the bottom of their forward group.  I think they can do that without taking a core player away and that’s how Cheveldayoff will likely try to play it.

ripaceventura30: What is a realistic return for Shayne Gostisbehere and who might be interested in turning his career back around? Is JVR a buyout candidate or do the Flyers hang onto him for one more year and hope he gets back to his scoring ways/gets dangled as an expansion draft piece?

Gostisbehere’s case is a tough one.  Moving a high-priced player in this current marketplace is going to be tricky.  Moving a high-priced player (Gostisbehere has a $4.5MM AAV) with three years left on his deal that couldn’t crack their regular lineup down the stretch and in the playoffs is going to be much tougher.  There is definitely offensive upside and his mobility is a plus as more teams look to have their defenders join the rush so this isn’t a situation where no one would want him.  But the return Chuck Fletcher would probably have to settle for would be underwhelming.  A second-round pick and a depth defender (to offset some salary) would be my guess at a best-case scenario and their cap situation is going to make it difficult to try to hold onto him in the hopes that he rebuilds his value next season.  I could see New Jersey and Detroit being among the teams with interest, ones with vacancies on the back end and enough cap room to take on what’s currently a bad contract without too much concern.

I don’t see Philadelphia buying out James van Riemsdyk.  He hasn’t lived up to his contract but he still has 46 goals over his two seasons which isn’t terrible by any stretch either.  A buyout would cost them over $2.77MM for two seasons, then over $4.77MM in 2022-23 before dropping to $1.778MM for three years after that.  Can they sign a 25-goal winger for the difference between his buyout cost and his $7MM cap hit?  I know they want to free up some money but that’d be a tough way to do it.  At this point, they either trade him with significant retention or, more likely, hold onto him and hope he rebuilds his value.  If he doesn’t, he’ll be left unprotected next summer.

@warrenchris: Where will Stamkos be playing next year?

It’s well-known that Tampa Bay has to cut some significant salary for next season and whoever they want to move is going to have some form of trade protection.  While players like Alex Killorn, Yanni Gourde, and Tyler Johnson have been the speculative casualties, I suppose it’s possible that they could look at how they’ve performed without Stamkos and try to move him instead.  Anthony Cirelli would step into a bigger role down the middle behind Brayden Point and they’d probably still be contenders.

But from a value standpoint, there probably isn’t a worse time to try to move him.  Moving expensive contracts is going to be tough this offseason given the current landscape and he’s signed at an $8.5MM cap hit for four more years.  The mystery surrounding this injury that has kept him out for the entire postseason doesn’t help either.  Original indications were that he was to have been back by now but he’s not progressing as well as anyone would have hoped.  That’s a major red flag for other teams.  If you’re going to commit to a pricey player, you at least want to know that he’s healthy and that there’s no danger of recurrence down the road.  He’s now skating with the team at least but that’s not the same as game action.

In a situation where they simply have to move some players out, nothing can be ruled out entirely.  But even though they’ve done well without him, it’s hard to imagine Stamkos being anywhere other than Tampa Bay next season.

sovietcanuckistanian: is Rask done in Beantown? Publicly, team/players have come out in support, but you get the feeling there is some angst/animosity from some people partly feeling that he might have bailed. I mean he’s still a top-5 goalie (I think), but his cap hit is a bit high. Do you think he gets moved or do they just run out the Halak/Rask tandem again and let their contracts run out? Thanks in advance.

I wouldn’t be surprised if some in the organization would like to see him moved despite their public proclamations to the contrary but doing so would be trickier than it might seem.  For starters, he has a 15-team no-trade list which takes half of the league out of the equation right there.

Let’s look at Rask’s numbers from the past two seasons.  And I’m not talking about his sterling GAA and SV% from 2019-20 but rather his games played totals.  This season, he played in 41 regular season games before the pandemic hit.  The year before that, he played in 46 contests.  That’s not a lot of appearances for a starting goalie, especially one that has a $7MM price tag.  The tandem works for Boston with Jaroslav Halak because he’s someone that’s considered an above-average backup.  Not many other teams with a potential vacancy between the pipes are in that situation and of those, how many have $7MM to spend?  2020-21 feels like it’s going to have a lot of back-to-backs with the NHL wanting to play 82 games even with a delayed start so I don’t think there would be a huge market for his services.

Let’s look at the other side for a minute.  Who would replace Rask?  It’s not as if there are a lot of starters available in free agency nor are there legitimate number ones available on the trade market.  They could flip Rask for Marc-Andre Fleury to change things up for the sake of change but I don’t think that makes them a better team and they’re in win-now mode.  Unless they can land a legitimate starter that’s going to be around for a few years (such as Jacob Markstrom in free agency), they’re probably best off sticking with a tandem that they know works for them.

Eric Lord: Do you think the Colorado Avalanche will make a run at Alex Pietrangelo? They really struggled defensively against Dallas after Johnson went down in Game One. They have the cap space and he would provide them with an experienced, top pair defenseman that could lead them to a Cup.

In terms of a fit, Pietrangelo to Colorado makes a ton of sense and he’d undoubtedly vault them into contenders.  But while you mention that they have the cap space, it’s only in the short term and that’s going to limit them in this pursuit.

Let’s jump ahead a year to the 2021 offseason.  They currently have $40.45MM in commitments to eight players which is manageable.  But Gabriel Landeskog needs a new deal that will check in considerably higher than his $5.571MM cap hit.  Cale Makar’s contract is up and at this point, you can probably add a zero to the end of his current $880K price tag.  Philipp Grubauer’s deal is up which means they’ll need a starting goalie as well.  Can they afford to do those three things, sign Pietrangelo, and fill out the rest of the roster under a cap that’s probably going to be around the $81.5MM it is now?  I don’t think they can.

If Pietrangelo is willing to sign a one-year deal at an inflated price tag (think more than $10MM) to go to a contender and then go for a long-term contract in 2021, Colorado has a chance.  In that scenario, I’d probably make them the contender for his services.  But that’s a lot of risk on Pietrangelo’s end as an injury could cost him millions.  Even in a deflated cap environment, he should be able to command a max-term, top-dollar contract next month; he’s that talented of a blueliner and those rarely hit the open market.  He’d fit in great with Colorado but I don’t think they can fit him in beyond 2020-21 without taking away another core piece first.

Read more

The Stanley Cup Finals are right around the corner and the offseason will follow quickly. With finances devastated over the last few months and teams looking at either the flat league-mandated salary cap or an even lower internal one, there should be plenty of player movement over the next few months. With that in mind, it’s time to run another edition of the PHR mailbag.

If you missed our last one, it was split into two parts which you can read here and here. The first was focused solely on the New York Rangers given they had just won the first-overall pick and answered questions regarding the future of Henrik Lundqvist and potential second-line center targets. The second part was more wide-reaching, with topics including Ottawa’s potential cap space, Alex Pietrangelo‘s future and the Detroit Red Wings offseason plans.

You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below. We’ll try to get to everything when the mailbag runs this weekend.

After last week’s mailbag focused on the Rangers, topics in this edition include postseason contenders, the Hurricanes, playoff overtime, Ottawa’s cap space, the captaincy in St. Louis,  Detroit’s willingness to leverage their cap room, the short-term future of the NHL’s signature in-season events, and free agency.

DarkSide830: Cup favorite as things now stand?

Whoever comes out of the West.  I have concerns about each team in the East – Boston for their goaltending with Tuukka Rask gone, Philadelphia for their struggles against Montreal, the Islanders for their lack of firepower, and Tampa Bay for how things went last year.  Don’t get me wrong, they’re all strong teams but I don’t think they match up as well against the top two teams in the West in Vegas and Colorado.

The Golden Knights don’t have many weaknesses.  Robin Lehner and Marc-Andre Fleury are a solid goaltending tandem, their back end was very quietly bolstered at the trade deadline with Alec Martinez.  They still don’t have that elite scorer but they have multiple lines that are strong offensive threats at all times.  That was a recipe for success just two years ago and they’re better now than they were then so they should get by Vancouver this round.

As for the Avalanche, their goalies (Philipp Grubauer and Pavel Francouz) aren’t as well-known but are solid while they also have a strong back end.  They have the top-end firepower while Nazem Kadri has been quite sharp so far to deepen their attack.  Dallas might be able to slow them down for a bit like Arizona did but as they did against the Coyotes, their offense will come around and take over.

That would set up a very interesting Western Conference Final with the winner being my pick for the Stanley Cup favorite.  Right now, I’d give a slim edge to Vegas but both would be justifiable contenders.

mikedickinson: The Canes now pick 13th thanks to the Patrick Marleau trade. Do they trade that for an established guy? Gotta figure Justin Williams will retire and will need to be replaced.

I don’t see them trading that pick.  They’ve already moved their own first-round pick this season to pick up Brady Skjei at the trade deadline and he’s an established player.  If they still had both picks, I’d think that one would be in play but I suspect the Skjei trade was done knowing that they’d have another first-rounder at their disposal to use at the draft table.  (They probably didn’t think it’d be as early as 13th though.)

If Williams retires (a reasonable expectation), they don’t have to get a top forward to replace him.  Instead, they can look to the open market and go bargain shopping.  The 30-35-point players that bounce between the second and third lines could be squeezed out as teams look to sign/keep their top players and fill out of the rest of their roster with cheaper options.  That could push the price tag of those depth wingers down and present a chance for Carolina to nab one at a reasonable rate and get a replacement for Williams at a reasonable price.  Failing that, Ryan Dzingel would get a chance to earn back his full-time spot in the lineup.

crosseyedlemon: Could anything be more idiotic than having teams play 3 or more OT periods in early playoff rounds? One OT period followed by a shootout should be the format for every round with the exception of the championship finals.

I understand where this is coming from given how crazy the Tampa Bay-Columbus game was and how it postponed Carolina-Boston.  If there was ever a year to do such a proposal, it was this one given the constraints of only using one arena per conference.  It wouldn’t have been a popular choice but it would have been understandable.

Personally speaking, I don’t ever want to see a shootout in the playoffs.  I could do without them in the regular season, to be honest.  A quick skills competition should not be dictating the outcome of a game, especially when the stakes are higher in the playoffs.  If teams have to drag it out for multiple overtimes, it’s their own fault for not scoring earlier.  From a fairness perspective, it’s the same teams that are punished; it’s not like it hurts one more than the other.

I should mention that I enjoy the games that drag on and on.  As a baseball game gets deeper and deeper into extra innings, I’m hooked.  If a basketball game gets to multiple OT’s, sign me up.  They occur rarely enough that they’re special when they happen.  That’s to be celebrated, not legislated out of the game by bringing the shootout into the playoffs.

JDGoat: Does Ottawa use their cap space to bring in other teams RFA’s or do they just look to bring in bad contracts with assets attached? What could some targets be for these scenarios?

I don’t see them targeting restricted free agents via offer sheet or trade unless they’re getting someone that they think can be a part of their long-term core.  They know their crop of young players and prospects are going to get expensive fairly quickly so adding another potentially expensive player to the mix for the long haul may not be the best move.  They need to see how the likes of Erik Brannstrom, Josh Norris, and company pan out and they’re a couple of years away from getting a legitimate read on those players.

I think the better target for the Sens is transition players.  Adding a veteran or two that can work with their young core in the short term and can be eventually flipped is probably the better way to go.  The prospects that are on the cusp get some more time with AHL Belleville (assuming the AHL gets up and running) and the veterans, while likely overpaid, can still contribute.

Loui Eriksson in Vancouver is a logical target.  His salary is lower than his cap hit (which is notable given their payroll parameters) and the Canucks will be motivated sellers.  He’s not worth his $6MM AAV but he can still kill penalties and chip in a bit offensively, especially if he gets a bit more playing time.  If Anaheim needs to part with David Backes ($4.5MM with Boston retaining $1.5MM) to free up money, he’d give them some extra grit and would only be a one-year commitment.

Of course, the intention here is that the assets to take on those contracts is the key to the trade, not the veterans themselves.  If Ottawa can pick up a key pick or prospect for doing so and then potentially flip the veteran down the road for a small something, that would be a good use of their cap room.

vincent k. mcmahon: If Petro doesn’t resign with the Blues who do see being the next captain? Or do you think they would roll with 3 assistant captains?

It’s certainly going to be difficult for St. Louis to re-sign Alex Pietrangelo.  Yes, the flattening of the salary cap may ultimately limit the number of suitors that can go after him in free agency but it’s also going to make it even harder for the Blues to free up the cap space to sign him.  I expect there will be mutual interest in getting something done but they will have to part with a couple of regulars to do so.  With a lot of teams looking to shed salary, it may be tough to get value for whoever they part with.  While it doesn’t seem possible on the surface, I have a hunch they’ll find a way to get something done which would make the question moot.

However, if Pietrangelo does move on, Ryan O’Reilly makes sense as a logical replacement.  Looking at their other two alternates, Vladimir Tarasenko’s future seems to be in question with his recurring shoulder issues while Alex Steen is a candidate to be one of the veterans getting moved out to free up cap space.  Meanwhile, O’Reilly still has three years left on his deal and has fit in seamlessly over his two years with St. Louis.  I think they’d be comfortable bestowing the ‘C’ on him if they wind up having to make a captaincy change.

Read more