PHR Mailbag

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the looming decisions the Rangers need to make, the Islanders at the trade deadline, Arizona’s offense, Montreal’s top veterans, needs for the Golden Knights, midseason surprises and disappointments, Boston’s continued search for a top-six winger, and some draft talk.  If your question doesn’t appear here, look for it in last week’s edition.

acarneglia: How do the Rangers resolve Kreider’s pending free agency, Lias Andersson’s request out, and their situation in goal?

CoachWall: With the Rangers promoting Igor Shesterkin, could they be seriously considering trading Georgy? They need to get a good return to make that deal.

@hawkeyguy: Are the Leafs and Rangers really linked in trade talks?

Chris Kreider is someone that the Rangers don’t appear to be all that interested in talking about an extension with, at least according to recent reports.  They’ve made teams aware that they’re willing to retain on his contract to facilitate a trade and there haven’t been any discussions about a deal beyond this season.  That can certainly change at any time and I’m sure GM Jeff Gorton will eventually get a sense for what a new deal will cost.  But at this point, it’s looking like a trade is a lot likelier than not and will happen relatively soon (by the trade deadline).

I don’t expect Andersson’s situation to be resolved as quickly.  The fact that he walked out doesn’t help.  Some of the almost cryptic comments he made back home doesn’t help.  He wasn’t playing all that well in Hartford and isn’t playing at all now.  You guessed it – that doesn’t help either.  If they were to move Andersson now, they’d be doing so at a considerable loss and at the same time, setting a precedent that they probably don’t want to do (if you want out, walk out and we’ll trade you).  This one should drag out into the summer where they’ll likely take a run at trying to get him to try again with New York before acquiescing if he still wants out.

I’m still of the opinion that they don’t have to trade a goalie.  Yes, a three-goalie situation is far from ideal but there is a defined end date when Henrik Lundqvist’s contract is up following 2020-21.  If they can make it that long, Shesterkin and Alexandar Georgiev is a quality tandem to work with.

If they do decide to make a deal, it seems that Georgiev will be the odd man out and Toronto is among the many teams that have kicked the tires.  The big question is going to be whether or not there’s a team that sees him as a number one down the road.  If so, they should be able to land a good enough player to justify moving him.  But if he’s viewed as a platoon option, they’re not going to get the impact young player they’re seeking so waiting for the offseason would make some sense.  I liken his situation to that of Cam Talbot’s when he was in New York and that one took until the summer to sort out.

nk: Lou Lamoriello is known for being the wise GM and aggressive when need be but it is getting evident that he knows the AHL Sound Tigers affiliate is not ripe with forward talent and with the Pelech injury does not want to deal D out of the system. Knowing this, with the major offensive struggles the Isles have had recently do you see him making a trade or will he be content to ride the wave with his current cast and just wait until the summer to try and get the offensive help needed when certain salaries come off the books?

I expect the Islanders to still try to add an offensive upgrade or two.  This is a team that showed that when they can score at even a reasonable clip, they can be dangerous.  They’ve largely struggled in that department over the last couple of weeks (aside from popping eight on Detroit earlier in the week) and that has dropped them back to third in the division and only a few points ahead of a Wild Card spot.  Reinforcements are going to be needed and Lamoriello knows that.

The injury to Adam Pelech makes it a bit tougher to deal from their defense but they can still dangle some prospects or draft picks to try to add some pieces.  While they don’t have any extra picks, they also have their full complement of selections at their disposal and while some of the Bridgeport forwards aren’t likely ready to contribute at the NHL level yet, they would still attract some interest from other teams.  Someone like Otto Koivula comes to mind – he hasn’t looked great in NHL duty yet but at 21 and another year left on his deal, there will be teams intrigued by his size and offensive output in the minors.

Vin Scully: Will the Yotes do anything else to shore up their offense?

Short of a depth move, I don’t see them doing much else of consequence up front.  When you add Phil Kessel and Taylor Hall and the needle doesn’t move much, that suggests that the limited offense is more systemic than talent-based.  Their system is working pretty well for them (they’re tied for first in the Pacific despite some injured goalies as of late) so they’re not going to change that so why make another big swing when you have a reasonable idea that it won’t have that much of an impact?

Part of the reason I don’t see them doing much more is that their trade chips are limited.  They’re down first and third-round picks this season.  Their top three picks are essentially encumbered from the Hall trade while we wait to see which provision(s) take place.  That basically takes them out of the running for any top talent right there.

I actually think Arizona may look to add a defenseman even though their unit is pretty deep.  Jordan Oesterle, Ilya Lyubushkin, and the recently-recalled Kyle Capobianco are all depth options and finding an upgrade for a reasonable cost (a mid-round pick or similar prospect) is doable while fitting in the range of assets that they’re likely willing to part with.

Mark Black: What would a Carey Price or Shea Weber trade look like for Montreal? From a salary/long term strategy standpoint, who would be better to trade?

In terms of what it would look like, the return would be completely theoretical as GM Marc Bergevin is going out of his way to try to quash any notion of them getting traded so let’s focus on the second part of the question.

From a long-term standpoint, I would move Price first.  The contract was pricey to begin with and now with the marketplace shifting towards preferring starters playing less, it’s not going to get any better.  Price’s reputation is still relatively strong even if his numbers aren’t so there may be some teams out there that think behind a better defense, he could get back to his top form.  There would need to be a fair bit of money offset though, either by retention (something I don’t think Montreal would do anytime soon) or by taking some higher-priced players back.

As for Weber, there will come a time where he can’t log 25 minutes a night but right now, he’s still playing quite well and with the Canadiens unwilling to go into a larger-scale rebuild, it’s hard to see them wanting to move him.  There would be several interested teams if they were open to dealing him though.  Once his salary really starts to drop off (to $3MM in 2022-23, $1MM for three seasons starting in 2023-24), he could move to a team looking to get to the cap floor but by then, he’s probably more of a second pairing option at best and the return would be low.  The 2022-23 season is the first that Montreal would be out of salary recapture risk as well (though their potential exposure is a lot lower than Nashville’s).

I think the fall off risk is higher with Weber but they can get out of that deal easier down the road based on its structure so from a strategic standpoint, moving Price is probably the better way to go but neither will happen anytime soon.

WalterNYR: Vegas is obviously a Cup contender, but what kind of move can they make to put themselves in the best position possible?

Evidently, they saw a coaching change as something that would help put them in the best position possible which is something I certainly didn’t see coming.  Time will tell if that helps or hurts their chances.  It will likely delay any movement though as GM Kelly McCrimmon will want to see if Peter DeBoer can help cure what ails them, particularly on the back end.

That’s the position I think they should be trying to upgrade at and by all accounts, they’ve been trying to do just that for a while now.  They have plenty of firepower up front but their back end is still largely patched together with depth options playing more minutes than they should.  A legitimate top-four defender could be the final piece of the puzzle.  However, with minimal cap space, they’ll have to unload some contracts the other and potentially get the other team to retain.  Are they open to dealing another first-round pick or will they be trying to deal from their surplus of second-rounders (five over the next two drafts) instead?  That will determine what tier of blueliner that they can ultimately get.

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Topics in this edition of the mailbag include Buffalo’s struggles, Nashville’s coaching change, what’s next in Montreal, Kyle Palmieri’s future in New Jersey, who Detroit shouldn’t be trying to move, recall rules, and Colorado’s sluggish start after the holiday break.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next week’s mailbag.

Dukes45: Fans clamoring for anything positive in Buffalo and hearing Botterill actively seeking trades. Anything, please, anything? How warm is seat getting under Botterill?

sabres3277: Do you think the Sabres have any chance at the playoffs?? If not, who should they deal at the deadline to get ready for next year once again???

There doesn’t seem to be much to report on the trade front for Buffalo, at least for now.  Even after trading Marco Scandella for Montreal in what was essentially a three-way deal that saw them land Michael Frolik, they still have a surplus of defenders and a need for forwards.  In the immediate term, that’s still something Botterill is looking to do.

The challenge here is that Bogosian doesn’t have a lot of suitors and there aren’t a lot of similar forwards on expiring contracts that have a similar level of trade value.  The pricier rentals up front (Chris Kreider, Tyler Toffoli, even Mikael Granlund potentially) happen to be some of the better trade chips out there and as a result, the asking price is going to be a lot higher than Bogosian and given their current situation, that’s not a justifiable price to pay.  For me, Colin Miller is the better trade chip among their right-shot options.  They’d be selling low but should still be able to get back close to what they got for him if not a similarly-valued forward.

As for their playoff hopes, they’re better than they were a few weeks ago with Montreal falling out of it.  However, I don’t think they’re cracking the top three in the division and I like Florida’s chances of staying ahead of them.  I also don’t expect the Atlantic to get both Wild Card spots.  So while their chances are better, they’re still not good.  Selling makes sense.

Those two defensemen should be considered as trade chips and I’d put Jake McCabe (one of the few lefties on the team) there as well.  Is he part of the long-term future?  If not, his value may be at its best now.  I don’t think there’s a great market for Evan Rodrigues or Jimmy Vesey gave their performances but taking what they can get isn’t a bad idea.  I think Zemgus Girgensons would be someone that would generate a fair bit of interest from teams looking to add center depth and/or size to their bottom six.  There aren’t any Grade A trade chips but they could land a handful of later draft picks at the very least.

Let’s go back to the first question and look at Botterill’s future.  It’s certainly reasonable to suspect that he could be in jeopardy if they ultimately miss the playoffs again.  He didn’t fare well in his big trade of Ryan O’Reilly nor does the Jeff Skinner contract look good.  He’s already on his second head coach.  Most of the time, there are only so many big moves that can be made without achieving the desired results before ownership changes the ones making the moves.  Botterill seems to be getting pretty close to that (though I do think they have the right coach in place now).

pitmanrich:  What does Nashville see in John Hynes? Done little in NJ apart from one season when Taylor Hall was outstanding. I understand Nashville wanting a different voice behind the bench but it seems like an odd move.

Part of the change is simply to get that different type of coach behind the bench.  Peter Laviolette was a strict systems coach and Hynes isn’t as much of one.  Laviolette is stricter, Hynes is a bit more of a players’ coach.  Of the recent coaching changes, a lot have been towards getting rid of the former and bringing in the latter.  Of the coaches that were let go this season, only Hynes really qualifies in that more progressive category.

GM David Poile also is one who rarely likes to make coaching changes so I think the fact that he was able to hire someone with experience who’s only 44 also was appealing.

Hynes’ tenure with New Jersey wasn’t the greatest but at the same time, he didn’t exactly have the most talented of teams at his disposal and their goalie went from being a franchise piece to someone that’s toiling in the minors.  It’s hard to pin all of that on Hynes.  He had a good track record of development with AHL Wilkes-Barre/Scranton which certainly came into play as well.

This hire surprised me a bit as well but Poile is choosing what he thinks will be the best long-term solution over bringing in someone who might be able to get a short-term boost before the voice and system goes stale.  Time will tell if it’s the right call.

goosr: Is this the year Marc Bergevin finally make a good trade instead of 4th liners or washed up players?

While Bergevin has certainly made his fair share of depth acquisitions, he also has traded for Shea Weber, Max Domi, Tomas Tatar, and Jonathan Drouin since the 2016 offseason.  That’s a fair bit of changeover in the core and some of those deals have worked out better than originally expected.  With Montreal rapidly dropping in the standings, it seems unlikely that they’ll turn around and acquire a big-name player as that addition alone probably wouldn’t change their fortunes enough to make a difference.  With their pending UFAs being basically depth players, expect to see some more small moves in the coming weeks.

wu tang killa beez: With the Habs already out of a playoff spot in early January, is Bergevin gonna be fired if they miss the playoffs once again this year? I do not see them getting back into the playoff portrait will all the injuries and they should be sellers at the deadline (Petry, Tatar?)

I don’t think a GM change is coming if they’re not in a playoff spot this season.  There has been a fundamental change in philosophy towards more of a slow-scale build over the past couple of years, one that places a bigger emphasis on drafting and development.  Getting ownership to agree to that likely bought him some extra time.

For a while, it appeared as if the 2021 offseason was going to be the big change in direction as the Canadiens have been structuring their contracts so that a lot are ending at the same time.  That was the point where they’d choose which core pieces would be staying and which would be going.  Jeff Petry and Tomas Tatar are among that group which certainly has them in the mix to move if Bergevin decides to take a bigger step back now.  Petry would have the better value, especially since Tatar failed as a rental with Vegas back in 2018 which could make some teams hesitant to bring him in.  Knowing that they’re hosting the draft, I think their bigger moves will wait until then unless a team wants to pay a significant price to get a second playoff run out of a player.

DVail1979: As a Devils fan and a big fan of Kyle Palmieri … how much longer can I expect him to be in New Jersey … if he’s dealt where can I expect him to go and what kind of return might I see?

Palmieri has another year on his deal left at this one at $4.65MM so I don’t expect his name to come up too much in trade talks this season.  They’re going to want to take a run at extending him and that’s going to have to wait until the summer until the window to do so opens up.

Unlike Taylor Hall, I think there’s a pretty good chance Palmieri sticks around.  He’s not going to be someone that commands top dollar on the open market as 50-55 point players aren’t landing rich contracts.  He’ll also be 30 by then.  If the Devils went to him with a six-year offer around a $6.5MM-$7MM AAV, that might be enough to keep him around without breaking the bank or messing up their cap structure.

If they were to move him over the next few weeks, a first-round pick would be all but a given.  A B-level prospect and a lower-level one or comparable draft pick would likely be in there as well as they’d want to be compensated for the extra year that he’s under contract.  Then there would be a mid-priced contract coming back or New Jersey would be retaining part of Palmieri’s deal as a lot of buyers are tight to the Upper Limit.  But I wouldn’t count on that happening though.  I think he’ll stick around.

tigers22: With the Red Wings this bad wouldn’t it be something to look at by trading Larkin, Mantha, and AA for as many prospects and picks they can?

It all depends on how long you want the rebuild to be.  If GM Steve Yzerman commits to dealing Dylan Larkin and Anthony Mantha in particular, he’s likely extending what is already becoming a relatively long rebuilding process.  Larkin has three years left on his deal after this one and is their franchise player.  If things are going well by the end of that contract, it’s certainly reasonable to think he’d want to stay.

In Mantha’s case, he’s a restricted free agent this summer with arbitration rights.  If he signals that he wants to go year-to-year to get to the open market, then trading him makes more sense.  Until that happens though, they should be planning for him to be part of the veteran core down the road.

Andreas Athanasiou’s case is different.  He’s not having a good year and isn’t quite at the same level that the other two are.  It’s far from a given that he’s a part of their future plans so in that sense, a trade makes sense.  However, with just five goals and a -35 rating, offers aren’t going to be great.  Do you sell low now or hope he improves down the stretch and boosts his trade value?  It’s not an easy call either way.

Teams that blow it all up and go all in on youth tend to struggle without a capable veteran supporting cast.  Yzerman’s smart enough to realize that he’ll need some productive veterans to help shoulder the load.  They have that in Larkin and Mantha so unless a team wants to overpay significantly in terms of assets, they’re better off keeping those two around.

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The holiday season is over and the NHL is right back to the grind. Some teams are just counting the days until the draft lottery, while others are making travel plans for the playoffs. Several, including many that are still on the postseason bubble, will have to take a hard look at their roster over the next few weeks to decide whether to add or subtract at the trade deadline.

With that in mind, it’s time to run our first mailbag of 2020. You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below. Make sure you get your questions in early and we’ll try to get through as many as possible when the mailbag runs on the weekend.

If you missed our last edition before the Christmas break, it was split into two parts (here and here). In the first, Brian tackled questions regarding Robin Lehner’s future in Chicago, Detroit’s tank-a-thon season, and some New York trade targets. In the second, Alex Pietrangelo was a subject of conversation, along with predictions on how the Metropolitan Division will shake out when all is said and done.

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Alex Pietrangelo’s future in St. Louis, what the Rangers may do in the second half, Jeremy Colliton’s coaching tenure in Chicago, the viability of Torey Krug as a trade candidate for Boston, adding to the Islanders, and forecasting the Metropolitan Division standings.

@Pointdink: Will the Blues trade Petro?

I don’t think they will.  While it’s fair to look at their cap situation moving forward and wonder how they could fit him in at a new deal paying somewhere between $8.5MM and $9.5MM per season, I suspect GM Doug Armstrong still believes he can get him signed.  Maybe the cap goes up a bit more than expected which gives them enough to get a new deal done.  Perhaps there will be a willingness to buy out a contract to free up another couple of million (even though it would add money to the books later on).

Even if neither of those are likely to happen, St. Louis isn’t exactly a seller.  Despite missing Vladimir Tarasenko, they sit atop the Western Conference and with Tarasenko likely to be back for the playoffs, they have their eyes on trying to repeat as Stanley Cup champs.  Dealing away their captain and a crucial part of their back end doesn’t help them try to accomplish that even if it runs the risk of losing him for nothing in free agency.

acarneglia: How do the Rangers make the playoffs this year?

CoachWall: The trade deadline is approaching. What assets, if any, do the Rangers trade and what do they seek in return?

Two very different scenarios here regarding the same team.

Let’s start with how they get to the postseason.  For that to happen, Alexandar Georgiev will need to continue to steal minutes away from Henrik Lundqvist and provide some more consistent goaltending while stealing some games.  Chris Kreider will need to stay put.  Kaapo Kakko will have to produce with more consistency as does Pavel Buchnevich.  If that all happens, perhaps that persuades GM Jeff Gorton to make a move to add a veteran or two and they help propel them to a postseason position.  It’s certainly not impossible that all of that happens – some of it likely will – but it’s not a probable outcome.

Selling is probably the way they go here.  Unless they go on a big run, they’ll either be on or below the bubble and given where they are in their competitive window, the smart play is to add for the future and look for young players that line up with their group of current youngsters.  In a perfect world, I think Gorton would rather add those than draft picks or prospects that are still a few years away.

Kreider is the obvious candidate to be moved unless they can agree to a contract extension.  I think Jesper Fast moves to a team looking to add bottom six depth.  That’s basically the end of their rental assets.  Buchnevich has been hot and cold throughout his career and will be entering the final year of his bridge deal next season.  He’s a change of scenery candidate whether it’s now or in the postseason.

Darkhorse: Frustration is evident when looking at Toews and company in Chicago. Lehner has been candid saying the team has the talent but doesn’t play defense. Is the Colliton experiment over soon? Who else would they bring in?

I don’t see a coaching change on the horizon in Chicago.  GM Stan Bowman’s decision to let Joel Quenneville go a year ago was a bit controversial given the composition of their roster (it wasn’t exactly a playoff-caliber team on paper) so I have a hard time believing he’ll get the green light to let go of Colliton barely a year later.  As far as coaching tenures go, he has only been there for 103 games.  In the grand scheme of things, that’s not a lot of time.

I suppose with Peter DeBoer out there and his believed willingness to return this season if the right situation opens up, he’d have to be considered as a potential replacement but a lot of times, in-season moves involve an assistant taking over (Marc Crawford’s situation makes that unlikely) or the AHL head coach moves up and Derek King doesn’t have a lot of experience as a bench boss himself.  If things continue to go south for the rest of the season, there’s a chance a change would be made but it may not just be the coach in that situation.

mcase7187: Who or what can the B’s do to bring in help with scoring goals on any other line than the 1st line? Could they trade Krug for that help?

The idea of trading from their strength on the back end by moving Torey Krug, a pending UFA out, makes some sense on the surface.  However, there are a trio of reasons that I think GM Don Sweeney will opt not to do so.

The first is that I don’t think he has ruled out signing Krug to a new contract.  Yes, their cap situation is going to be tight even before factoring in a significant raise on his current $5.25MM AAV.  But he’s a big part of their core and taking away from that group to bring in another core piece doesn’t seem like something that Sweeney is all that inclined to do based on his previous moves.

I’m also not sure that Boston is prepared to give up Krug’s offensive ability to try to add to their offense.  Charlie McAvoy has shown flashes of his offensive upside but he has yet to score this season.  Zdeno Chara still is somewhat of a threat from the point but not to the extent he was in the past (and he still leads their back end in goals).  Krug’s offense is a dimension that they can ill afford to lose.

Lastly, the teams that are going to be selling the scoring talent aren’t going to be interested in Krug.  They’re going to want top picks and prospects, not a pending free agent.  While it’s certainly possible that the selling team could turn around and flip Krug for those assets, they’d likely just prefer to trade their own player for those instead of making two trades to get them.

Boston is going to be trying to push for another long playoff run.  It’s unlikely that they’ll be subtracting any key player off their roster even if it is to fill a need.

nk: The Islanders are dominant when they score 3+ goals. The question is can they consistently score three goals especially as the season progresses and the playoffs begin. Do you see LL making an impact trade for a top-six forward and would they be willing to make a move even if for a rental to give the Isles a legit shot at the ECF or even Cup finals?

Lou Lamoriello hasn’t shied away from making in-season splashes in the past when the time was right in the past.  We also know he was looking to make a big splash over the summer although that never came to fruition.  They have plenty of cap space (only Colorado has more among playoff contenders) so they won’t be constrained by needing teams to retain salary to facilitate a move which also gives them an advantage.

As long as the Islanders can hang around the top spot in the Metropolitan (more on that in the next question), Lamoriello will likely be thinking big as the deadline approaches.  A scoring by committee approach can have some success in the playoffs but deepening that committee would certainly help their chances.  I think he’d like to keep their young prospect core largely intact though which means he may be looking for a rental instead with the hopes that if that player fits in, he’s open to signing a long-term deal in the summer, just like he did with Ilya Kovalchuk in New Jersey back in 2010.

met man: The Metropolitan Division is very competitive this year. How do you see it playing out?

Washington has already started to separate themselves from the pack while the Islanders will also do so if they win their games in hand.  Assuming they stay healthy, that should be the top two finishers and I’d give the Capitals the advantage as things stand.

I’ve been very impressed with how Pittsburgh has hung around despite a growing list of injuries that seems to see a core piece go down every couple of weeks.  As those players return, they should be able to start to claw their way back up.  Right now, they’re tied with Carolina but I see them leapfrogging the Hurricanes.

Carolina’s goaltending still concerns me but they do enough other things well that they should be able to hold down a Wild Card spot at the very least.  If Philadelphia’s top forwards get back to producing the way they have in the past, they could jump past the Hurricanes but for now, they’ll stay in fifth and likely the final Wild Card position.

Currently, the Rangers and Blue Jackets are tied for sixth and neither team is likely to make a big playoff push.  That means both should sell but Columbus doesn’t have any expiring contracts to part with while New York has one of the top rentals in Kreider plus a couple others that could move.  I also expect the Blue Jackets’ young goalie tandem to improve in the second half which should be enough to put them sixth and the Rangers seventh.  As for the Devils, they’re looking pretty secure in that bottom spot, especially as they eventually start to sell off some of their other veterans.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Robin Lehner’s contract situation, Detroit’s struggles, Taylor Hall’s dwindling time in New Jersey, restricted free agents for the Rangers, the offside rule, and potential contract terminations.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s edition.

@K9GY: Why aren’t the Hawks getting Lehner a multi-year contract now? Crawford’s gone ….and so will Lehner if they don’t get er done! Then they’ll be searching for a #1 goalie….not the best position to be in!

The short answer as to why Chicago hasn’t got a new deal done for Lehner is simply because they’re not allowed to.  As Lehner is on a one-year contract, the Blackhawks can’t sign him to an extension until the calendar flips to 2020.

Even with that though, I’m not sure one will quickly be coming down the pipeline.  It’s not that they’re not happy with him but I’m not convinced that Corey Crawford’s time in the organization is going to be coming to an end.  Heading into play today, they’ve split the games 50-50 so far at 16 starts apiece.  (I know Lehner was out to start the year but still, it has been pretty close to a timeshare situation.)

I know sentimentality doesn’t always get received well but I truly believe they’d like to keep Crawford in the fold, albeit at a considerably lower price tag than his current $6MM.  In a perfect world, they probably wouldn’t mind keeping both, especially with Collin Delia struggling at AHL Rockford.  Is that type of situation something that Lehner is comfortable committing to on a longer-term basis?  I’m not saying that will make or break talks but Crawford’s situation is probably going to play a role at some point.  Having said all that, I think Lehner will eventually sign.

JDGoat: How is Detroit so bad this year, even with some pretty good building blocks on the team?

Let’s start with the goaltending.  The tandem of Jimmy Howard and Jonathan Bernier wasn’t the strongest last season and they have both been considerably worse this year.  When both of your goaltenders have save percentages that are below the league average for backup goalies, you’re in trouble.

To be fair to those two, their defense can best be described as patchwork.  Filip Hronek is a quality long-term piece but it does downhill from there.  Danny DeKeyser and Trevor Daley have missed more than half the season due to injuries while Mike Green and Patrik Nemeth have also missed time.  The younger blueliners that have been given a longer look as a result haven’t really panned out and to be fair, the veterans haven’t been great either.

Up front, they have some good pieces headlined by Anthony Mantha and Dylan Larkin but those aren’t top players on a contender.  The supporting cast hasn’t been great either.  Andreas Athanasiou has just five goals and is back in trade speculation as a result.  Frans Nielsen, who makes less than only Larkin among forwards, has just one assist in 29 games.  Their next highest paid forward in Justin Abdelkader hasn’t scored either.  There are a lot of underperforming veterans all around and that has hurt them drastically.

The good news is that there is help coming.  Filip Zadina looks better now than he did a year ago.  Joe Veleno has NHL upside.  So does Moritz Seider.  These are all first-round picks that are relatively close to making an impact and will almost certainly improve upon the performance of the veterans they’ll replace.  There are some building blocks in place but until they’re all NHL ready, Detroit is going to continue to struggle.

M34: Your best guess for Hall’s landing spot?

How about a potential sleeper suitor that could emerge?

DVail1979: As a Devils fan … should I be hoping our team can re-sign Hall or should I hope he ends up with someone like Colorado, Edmonton, (again), or Arizona? What kind of package should I expect back?

As things stand, it’s likely a first-round pick, a high-end prospect, another prospect, and a young NHL roster player that would need to be part of the package to land Hall.  If there’s retention or matching money involved, add another piece or two to the equation.

Before looking into possible landing spots, let’s discuss the potential of him staying in New Jersey which seems to be very minuscule at this point.  An in-season extension appears to be off the table and if Hall makes it to the open market, there will almost assuredly be other opportunities where he could step in and have a better shot at winning than he would with New Jersey.  I really liked what the Devils did this summer but nothing has worked and they look like they could be heading towards extending their rebuilding phase.  A top flight free agent probably won’t want to stick around for that.

Early speculation has Colorado as the favorites to land him and that makes a lot of sense.  They have the cap space to do a deal now without needing any contracts going the other way or salary retention.  They also have a strong stable of young players and quality prospects to deal from.  Tyson Jost feels like a good candidate for a change of scenery in a deal like this and someone like Conor Timmins could be in play as well.  If Hall was to agree to an extension (doubtful given the future cap crunch a couple of years from now and his agent’s history of pushing players to the market), I wouldn’t rule out Bowen Byram.  Not many teams have the assets to part with someone like that but they do.

I don’t see the Oilers being a good fit.  They could certainly use him but they’d need the Devils to retain and take some money back.  Their prospect pool isn’t the deepest to deal from either and someone like Jesse Puljujarvi would be viewed as a secondary (or tertiary) piece, not the key to a trade.  Arizona didn’t get the scoring boost they were seeking with the addition of Phil Kessel and adding someone like Hall would make an already good team that much better.  They also have a strong prospect pool that they could potentially deal from.  They’d need to offset some money to fit him in under the cap though and they are already using LTIR.

As for darkhorses, Boston would likely want to be involved but their cap situation would make it difficult.  Pittsburgh GM Jim Rutherford is going to want to make a splash and if Alex Galchenyuk is involved, that puts the salary matching close enough that it wouldn’t be an issue.  I could see the Islanders making a run as long as the in division/rival premium isn’t too high.  They took some big swings on the free agent market last season and the money is still there while their prospect depth is deep enough to move one or two pieces from.  Florida was really active over the summer and I could see GM Dale Tallon trying to make one more splash.  Pierre LeBrun of TSN and The Athletic reported earlier today (Twitter link) that they are among the teams that have inquired.

pitmanrich: Presuming Kreider is already gone can the Rangers re-sign all their RFA’s? Lemieux, Strome and DeAngelo have all done well under David Quinn’s system; do they take less to stay or has their play priced themselves out of New York?

Considering the Rangers basically forced Brendan Lemieux and Anthony DeAngelo to take one-year deals for this season by virtue of their cap situation and them not having arbitration rights, neither of them are going to be taking a hometown discount next summer.  As someone that is basically a bottom-six winger, I don’t think Lemieux will be looking at a big raise from his current $925K even with arbitration rights so they should be able to afford to keep him around.

DeAngelo is a much different situation though.  Assuming he keeps up his current pace, he could be looking at a 40-point season on the heels of a 30-point campaign.  Those numbers will look great to an arbitrator.  He’s also at $925K now but that could easily triple for next year if this keeps up.

Ryan Strome is going to be a very interesting case.  There’s no denying how well he has performed this season but is this a sign of things to come or an outlier?  His numbers in Edmonton weren’t great which is something management will undoubtedly bring up in contract talks.  He came into the season as a potential non-tender candidate with a $3.2MM qualifying offer on the horizon and while he’s probably done enough already to earn one, I don’t think he’s necessarily looking at a huge raise either.  A short-term deal similar to what they gave Ryan Spooner and Vladislav Namestnikov in recent years (two years, $4MM AAV) that provides a bit of a raise but doesn’t necessarily cripple them long-term either if Strome struggles is something they may be shooting for.

New York’s cap situation next summer is better than it has been the last couple of years so they should be able to afford these raises, especially if Chris Kreider is indeed moved over the next couple of months.

Cooperdooper7: Bruins lost another game recently on the RIDICULOUS offside review after a goal they scored… that’s now four games this year they have lost by losing a pivotal goal (or two), by a goal reviewed and changed that they score 30 seconds or more after the ticky-tack offside occurred. If the supposed offside does not occur directly in the result of the goal… why is it reviewable. This rule has got to be changed.

I suspect you’re far from the only one that’s frustrated with the fact that an offside that could have occurred 30 seconds (or more) before a goal was scored can still cause it to be taken off the board.  However, it’s tough to change the wording of the rule to limit the amount of time where the offside can directly affect the goal without making it less black and white than it is.

In theory, you could re-word it to say when the defending team gets possession, the ability to challenge for offside goes away.  But what constitutes possession?  A puck touch or does the defending team have to have someone with clear control on the stick?  And for how long?

You could try to re-word it to say that the ability to challenge is nullified after a certain amount of seconds elapse.  But then you run the risk of punishing teams that are shorthanded; it’s a lot easier to try to get the puck out at full strength than if you’re down a skater or two.  You also couldn’t limit the ability to challenge to the ensuing shot on goal as what if the rebound leads to the goal?  It’s not the initial shot but it’s related to that.

That’s why the rule is what it is.  Offside can be challenged until the puck clears the zone at which time it resets.  It’s not open to interpretation and there is no gray area.  It may not be the best system but it’s the fairest to enforce.

riverrat64: Where do you see players such as Bobby Ryan, Ilya Kovalchuk who are not playing for some time for team or personal reasons, released, signing elsewhere for less money, buyouts, trade, etc?

I don’t see Ryan going anywhere for the duration of his contract.  He has little incentive to accept a mutual contract termination as he stands no chance of recouping the $15MM in salary he’s owed in the two years after 2019-20.  He’s also currently in the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program so even if he wanted to go the termination route, he couldn’t.  He’ll be staying in Ottawa for a while yet.

Kovalchuk is a different case.  Once the rest of his signing bonus is paid out this weekend, he’ll only be foregoing the pro-rated league minimum salary for the rest of this season (plus $4.25MM in 2020-21).  He’ll have big offers to go back home that would basically cover what he’d be giving up so unlike Ryan, there isn’t much financial risk.

I think there would be some NHL interest though to the point where he’d get more than the minimum from his eventual new team.  Things haven’t worked out with the Kings but in the right environment where he’s in the right role as more of a supporting player, he could still help a team.  Boston had interest before and they still need scoring depth so they’d be a contender for his services.  I’d throw Dallas into the mix as long as they’re willing to go into using LTIR to do so as they also need a jump offensively.  Given Lou Lamoriello’s history with Kovalchuk, it’s hard to imagine the Islanders wouldn’t kick the tires here either.

Worth noting, even if (or more likely, when) the Kings terminate Kovalchuk’s deal, they still will be on the hook for the entire $6.25MM AAV for this season and next since they gave him a multi-year contract past the age of 35; those deals stay on the books no matter what.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

As December rolls along and we get closer to the NHL Christmas break, teams are starting to realize just what they are. Some are accepting their fate as a team outside of the playoff picture, making names pop up in trade speculation all over the league. Others know that they have a squad good enough to compete, but might want a little addition for the stretch run.

With that in mind, it’s time to run another edition of our mailbag. You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below. Make sure you get your questions in early and we’ll try to get through as many as possible when the mailbag runs on the weekend.

If you missed our last edition it was split into two parts which you can read here and here. In the first, Brian tackled questions about the San Jose Sharks’ slow start, the Toronto Maple Leafs backup goaltending situation, and the Boston Bruins’ secondary scoring depth. The second part looked at the future for Kyle Turris, Ilya Kovalchuk and Henrik Lundqvist.

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Henrik Lundqvist’s future in New York, what’s next for the Rangers, piecing together a Kyle Turris trade, the Ilya Kovalchuk situation with the Kings, and what the Islanders should be looking to add by the trade deadline.

met man: Seems to me that the Rangers have a decision to make in regards to goaltending. What is your take on Lundqvist’s future? The 2 Russian kids have played great (Georgiev with NYR and Shesterkin with Hartford), I hope they don’t trade one of the kids.

It won’t just be the Rangers that have a say in Lundqvist’s future.  The veteran has a no-move clause, one that he’s believed to have invoked a couple of years ago when they were considering looking into moving him at the trade deadline.  It’s certainly possible that they’ll approach things in a similar manner in February and see if he’s willing to be dealt now.  If so, that would solve the logjam but if he says no, I have a hard time thinking they’d try to force him out either.  While his salary for next season ($1MM signing bonus and $4.5MM in salary) is lower than his AAV, it’s still certainly high enough that he’s not going to want to walk away from it.

New York’s still in a pretty good situation.  Alexandar Georgiev and Igor Shesterkin appear to be a pretty good goaltending tandem of the not-too-distant future.  Georgiev’s a restricted free agent this summer but his NHL track record isn’t substantial enough that he’s going to break the bank on his next deal which will probably be a short-term pact.  Lundqvist is still going to have enough playing time to help keep Georgiev’s AAV low so they’re fine in that regard.  Knowing that he’ll have the inside track to take over as the starter (or at least the 1A role in a platoon) should be enough to keep Georgiev content next season as well in another timeshare situation.

Shesterkin’s case is a little trickier but still pretty favorable.  He’s signed through 2020-21 on his entry-level deal so when his deal runs out, Lundqvist’s contract will also be up so there’s his full-time NHL spot (unless Lundqvist decides at 39 that he wants to keep playing in New York, a scenario that seems unlikely at this point knowing that the Rangers will probably be wanting to move on).  Yes, the European Assignment Clause is a factor but it shouldn’t make or break things.  If Lundqvist is still around next season, it’s possible (if not probable) that Shesterkin would rather go back to the KHL for the year but he’ll know his NHL spot will be there for 2021-22.

The Rangers don’t have to do much of anything when it comes to their goaltending.  They’ll have to re-sign Georgiev in the summer but that’s the only guaranteed decision they’ll need to make.  If Lundqvist decides he wants to finish out his career somewhere else and try to chase a championship, they’ll probably try to accommodate that request but if not, they can easily let things play out and then set up the Georgiev-Shesterkin tandem for 2021-22 and beyond.

acarneglia: What’s the next move for the Rangers?

Short-term, I don’t expect much of anything on the trade front from them.  They will want to find out what Chris Kreider’s price to get an early extension done and we’re probably a couple of months away from really getting a sense of what that’s going to ultimately cost and whether or not the Rangers are willing to pay that.

I think they’d like to move out Marc Staal but I also think they’ve wanted to do so for a couple of years now so I wouldn’t count on that actually happening.  Ryan Lindgren and Libor Hajek have had their good and bad moments on the back end but if they’re still in evaluation mode for their youngsters, clearing a spot for both to play regularly would be ideal.

I wonder if Jesper Fast could be someone that’s on the move before too long.  He’s a pending UFA and it’s far from a guarantee that he’s in New York’s plans long-term.  As Kaapo Kakko eventually pushes for more playing time, it may very well come at Fast’s expense which would hurt his trade value.  Accordingly, moving him sooner than later may be the wise move.  Having said that though, even that move is probably a while away.

JDGoat: What would a potential Kyle Turris trade look like?

It all depends on Nashville’s appetite towards taking another long-term overpriced contract back.  Strictly from a financial perspective, one of those needs to be included in the deal as even a low-spending team with cap space isn’t going to want to absorb $6MM for this season and four more years after that.  If a team strikes out in free agency next summer, maybe it’s an option then but not now.  The quality of the player on that bad contract coming the other way would ultimately shape the rest of the deal.

If it’s a swap of underachieving top-six forwards, probably not a whole lot has to be done from there.  (I’d prefer a defenseman from Nashville’s standpoint but there aren’t many, if any, feasible blueline candidates that could be included.)  If the Predators are taking the weaker player back, then a pick or prospect balances out the deal.  It seems rather simplistic but teams aren’t going to be actively pursuing him which makes any potential trade rather formulaic.

To be honest, I don’t think there’s a big appetite to move him.  I know his name is out there and because of the contract they’ll listen to any potential options but Turris is still serviceable as a top-six player if injuries arise.  Whoever they’d get back for him probably won’t have quite the upside he does.  Nashville’s a win-now team so they’re not going to want to take a talent downgrade unless they’re freeing up a lot of cap room (which probably won’t happen).  Getting out of that contract makes sense in theory but in reality, it may not be all that practical.

Winter in Colorado: Do you think Kovalchuk is tradable after his Dec 15 signing bonus is paid by LA?

This question (which was posed a couple of weeks ago) is certainly an interesting one now with everything that has happened over the last few days.  Kovalchuk’s tradability after his bonus is paid is one of the big talking points around the league now.

At the very least, having the bonus paid will help his trade value, as limited as it is.  The Kings can’t score and they’ve benched someone that’s tied for fourth on the team in scoring.  If that doesn’t raise a bunch of red flags to any potential suitors, I don’t know what will.

Nonetheless, there are a couple of scenarios where I think he could go.  The first is the usual swap of bad contracts but the key will be finding one that has two years remaining at a similar price tag to Kovalchuk as the Kings won’t want a longer bad deal on the books.

The other is Ottawa eating the cap hit.  That one particularly becomes palatable if Kovalchuk decides to ‘retire’ from the NHL once again; as he’s on a 35-plus contract, that cap hit remains through next season.  At this point, it certainly feels like Kovalchuk will wait for the bonus to be paid before doing anything and it wouldn’t surprise me if he was to step away after that and head for the KHL once more.  The Senators could take on the cap hit without paying out any money and likely get some other assets for doing so while Los Angeles would get some needed cap flexibility.  It’s not an exciting move but it’s doable.

WalterNYR: It’s early but do you see the Islanders doing something at the deadline? Someone like Hoffman to help the offense would be nice.

If they continue to hold a top-three spot in the Metropolitan Division, they’ll likely be looking to add.  GM Lou Lamoriello hasn’t shied away from adding to his teams in the past and the rental market is a good place to look at the deadline.

You’ve certainly identified the right type of player that they should be looking for, someone that can provide them with some secondary scoring.  The Islanders are very strong defensively but are in the bottom third of the league in goals scored.  Mike Hoffman from Florida would be a very good fit but I’m not sure the Panthers will be sellers at the deadline.  They’re currently in a top-three spot in the Atlantic but even if they slide out of that, they’ll still be battling for a Wild Card seed.

It’s interesting – some of the better rentals play for rivals (Kreider with the Rangers and Taylor Hall with the Devils) so they’re probably out of the equation as well.  Tyler Toffoli’s name has been out there and the Kings will likely move him by the deadline as a pending free agent.   Beyond him, it’ll be a waiting game for a while to see which teams eventually slip out of the playoff race and start to sell but adding more production up front should be a priority for Lamoriello in the coming months.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Gabriel Landeskog’s injury, San Jose’s early struggles, the potential (or lack thereof) for movement in Toronto, Nikolai Prokhorkin’s less-than-ideal situation, the allure of the international free agent market, and Boston’s secondary scoring troubles.  If your question didn’t appear here, watch for it in next week’s edition.

M34: Over-under on games Landy misses?

When they announced the lower-body injury late last month, Colorado head coach Jared Bednar indicated that Landeskog’s injury was “longer than week-to-week”.  So we know that all of November (14 games) plus the final one in October is the absolute minimum.  If it was a four-to-six week thing, Bednar probably wouldn’t have made that comment so it’s safe to rule out the first half of December at the very least (another seven games).  At this stage, I’d be surprised if he played at all in December so let’s rule out the entire month (13 games in total).

That puts the total at 28 games missed and with a light month of January (nine games) on their schedule, I’d take the over on 28.  While he’s an important player for them, they’ll want to be cautious.

JDGoat: Is there anything to suggest San Jose can turn it around before it becomes too late?

If you’re looking for reasons to be optimistic about the Sharks’ chances, I’d look at their defense.  Brent Burns is doing fine offensively but is struggling more than usual in his own end.  He can be better.  Erik Karlsson is off to a tough start.  He can be better.  Marc-Edouard Vlasic is off to a really rough start.  He can be better.  If those three (who combine for over 72 minutes per game or about 60% of their total blueline time), their goaltending duo of Martin Jones and Aaron Dell will get better.

Up front, Logan Couture isn’t going to play at a 10-goal pace all season long.  Timo Meier may not reach 66 points again but he should be able to get past 40 at the very least and he’s not even playing at that level right now.  While Joe Thornton is clearly at the back of his career, I’m not going to completely write him off either.

The potential for this roster is still pretty good even though they’re an older group.  If they did nothing and won seven of their next 10 games, I wouldn’t be the slightest bit surprised.  If they go 3-7 in that stretch though, then it might be too late with all due respect to what St. Louis did just last season.

@JoshVesh: You see Marincin getting picked? And where do the Leafs go for their backup goaltender? Maybe a trade by Saturday to clear room for Hyman?

Since this was asked, we now know that Martin Marincin has once again cleared waivers, paving the way for him to be among those that are sent to the minors when Zach Hyman gets the green light to return.  That didn’t come as much of a surprise considering he has cleared multiple times in the past and most teams have a player like him (a fringe piece with a fair bit of NHL experience over the years) in their system already.

As for the backup goalie situation, I don’t think they’re going anywhere beyond looking down the bench at who they have in Michael Hutchinson.  They don’t have the cap room to spend much more than the league minimum they’re paying him and at that price tag, it’s not as if there are plenty of notable upgrades available.  Yes, he’s off to a rough start but playing him in the second half of four back-to-backs against the three top-scoring teams in the East (Washington is first while Boston and Montreal are tied with Toronto for second) put him in a really tough situation.  Give him a couple of easier starts in non-back-to-backs (which they’ll need to do if they want to rest Frederik Andersen a bit more) and he’ll probably provide some better results.

I don’t expect a trade in the short-term when it comes to activating Hyman.  It’s not as if Toronto didn’t know this was coming over the summer and they structured their cap situation to be this way where they could keep as much of their talent together as they could, even though it comes with the risk of carrying minimal depth and no cap room to work with.  GM Kyle Dubas is going to want to see how this group looks when fully healthy (something they haven’t been able to see yet given the injuries) and then if tweaks need to be made (or cap space has to be opened up), a trade in the second half of the season becomes likely.

MixtureBill: Thoughts on Prokhorkin in LA? The team is floundering and McLellan seems to refuse to put him in the lineup. When does his European assignment clause expire, and do you see him returning to the KHL before that happens?

There generally isn’t an expiration date on a European Assignment Clause though the starting effective time can vary.  It generally reads that if the player isn’t in the NHL at a specific point in time, they can trigger the assignment.  Considering they brought Prokhorkin up on October 18th and have only played him twice since then, it’s reasonably safe to infer that the initial trigger date was somewhere around October 18th.  Having a waiver-exempt player frequently sitting as a healthy scratch isn’t ideal for anyone.  But as long as he’s on the NHL roster, he can’t force a reassignment.

It’s clear that Todd McLellan isn’t ready to trust him yet and that Prokhorkin wants nothing to do with playing in the AHL so there’s a stalemate at play.  From an outside perspective, I think it would be worthwhile trying to give him the odd game here and there since he did enter the season as one of their more intriguing prospects.  Generally speaking, it makes sense to keep players fresh in case they’re needed when injuries strike and let’s face it, it’s not as if the Kings are doing all that well in the first place as you alluded to.  As their expected selloff happens, that should create an opportunity for him but he’s going to have to make a quick impact if he wants to lock down a regular role.

@CanuckJake16: Do 1st time players from the KHL fall under a different cap salary system, a cheaper option to sign “experienced” players under a tight cap???

The entry-level system is a little different for international-based players (not just those from the KHL).  While a non-European player would see his ELC eligibility expire at 25, any European that signs his first NHL contract at or before 27 is subject to a one-year ELC that is capped at a base salary of $925K before performance bonuses.  That’s why Ilya Mikheyev in Toronto is capped at $925K while Vadim Shipachyov (who two years ago signed with Vegas at 30), was able to get a $4.5MM AAV though the deal ultimately came off the books when he ‘retired’ from the NHL two years ago today.

Every year, there are a handful of players that are signed with your idea in mind, someone that has a bit more experience than a prospect in the minors does but they’re both subject to the same contract restrictions.  I think it’s fair to suggest that a lot more haven’t worked out than those that have.  Nonetheless, it’s an interesting market inefficiency that some cap-strapped teams are likely going to try to continue to mine.  Of course, the top players may prefer to stay at home where their earning potential is higher and then try to come over when they’re not subject to ELC restrictions.

sovietcanuckistanian: The Bruins (lack of) secondary scoring seems to be rearing its ugly head again. The pace the Perfection Line is on is nice but unsustainable. Krejci coming back is a start but do you think they have an internal candidate to plug/play and maybe alleviate some of their woes or do they have to look outside the organization for help? I only ask because Backes is on the IR for now and depending on his length of stay there they may need to explore getting actual help? Thoughts?

Secondary scoring in Boston has been a need for a while now which is why they’ve had to trade for help the last couple of trade deadlines.  Undoubtedly, they hope that younger players like Danton Heinen and Anders Bjork would be able to step up and that a full season from Charlie Coyle would help.  Those three have combined for a line of seven goals and six assists in 40 games which isn’t what they were looking for.

They’re not a team that’s swimming in cap space and with the eventual return of Kevan Miller and John Moore, they’re probably not going to want to make a move until those two get back and their cap situation (without LTIR) becomes a little more certain.  That means for the next little while at least, they’ll be testing from within.

Zachary Senyshyn and Cameron Hughes have had recent looks.  I could see Jack Studnicka getting a chance as well before too long.  Peter Cehlarik is up now and while he hasn’t produced much in the past during his various stints, he should get a bit of a longer leash to work with.  At the end of the day, I think they’ll be active on the trade front for that extra scoring help but that probably won’t be for another couple of months.  Until then, they’ll be rotating through internal candidates unless one of them takes the opportunity and runs with it.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

We’re now more than a month into the 2019-20 regular season and the NHL has provided surprise and shock on a daily basis. Some of the most incredible goals of the last decade have been scored early on, including Andrei Svechnikov’s latest contribution to lacrosse lore. With teams starting to understand what they have to work with, trade talks will soon start to heat up with bigger and bigger names hearing their names floating around.

With that in mind, it’s time to run another edition of our mailbag. You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below. Make sure you get your questions in early and we’ll try to get through as many as possible when the mailbag runs on the weekend.

If you missed our last edition it was split into two parts which you can read here and here. In the first part, Brian gave Barry Trotz and the New York Islanders the benefit of the doubt and they have responded with a league-best nine-game win streak—you’re welcome, Islanders fans. The second part took a look at the Buffalo Sabres situation on defense and examined how the salary cap is determined.

Topics in this edition of the mailbag include San Jose’s goaltending situation, Minnesota’s veterans, Buffalo’s blueline, salary cap projections, early-season surprises, and whether or not some notable trades could be on the horizon.

JDGoat: Will San Jose have to look at an upgrade in net or are they going to be forced to stick with Jones?

I think they’d like to look for an upgrade between the pipes but they’re not really in a position to do from a financial standpoint.  With less than $1MM in cap room, they’d basically be forced to try to match money in any trade they make and finding a team that’s willing to part with a goaltender that’s an upgrade on Martin Jones that makes close to the same money is going to be tricky to put it lightly.

Instead, their upgrade may have to come in the form of a replacement goalie for Aaron Dell.  Technically, they were looking for that last season and one never really came to fruition.  However, with Dell being in the final year of his deal with a more manageable $1.9MM AAV (compared to $6MM for Jones), that would be an easier move to make.  They wouldn’t be looking at getting someone that could realistically push for the starting role at that price tag (his cap hit plus some of their remaining room) but an upgrade there might be worth a few points in the standings over the course of the season if they find a swap sooner than later.

Generally speaking, unless they find a way to shed a sizable contract without taking as big of one back, GM Doug Wilson is going to be forced to look for marginal upgrades this season.  That’s not particularly exciting compared to a year ago but with their cap situation being what it is, it’s all they can really do.

jb10000lakes: Odds that one, or both Suter and Parise forgo their No Trade clauses to get out of Minny (these next couple years are going to be ugly), and how much would the Wild be willing to eat for them to do so?

Considering Zach Parise has already said that he’s not looking to be part of a rebuilding process, I’d put the odds of him being willing to waive as quite high.  However, it’s not quite that simple.  Is new GM Bill Guerin going to be willing to retain a sizable portion of his contract plus assume the risk of salary cap recapture if Parise opts to not play the final few years of his heavily back-diving contract?  Over the final three years of his deal, his salary is a combined $4MM so the recapture potential is high for Minnesota and non-existent for the acquiring team.  If you have to sell low and assume the risk on the back end of his contract as well, you might be better off keeping him.  Now, if Parise rebounds and boosts his trade value to the point where they get some quality picks or young players for him, then a move is more palatable.

Ryan Suter is a bit of a different case.  I don’t sense that their desire to trade him would be all that high unless he wants to waive his NTC.  I suspect the odds of him doing so would be a bit lower than Parise as he’ll still be playing a premium role in a rebuild.  I still don’t think they would need to retain anything to get value in return though.  Quality defensemen are hard to find and while a $7.538MM AAV will be tough to stomach in the final few years of his deal, he still has several above-average seasons left in him.  If Minnesota has to retain anything and assume the same recapture risk as Parise, it wouldn’t be a great move for them unless doing so was to bring back a high-end young talent.

@djay6: Could we see the Sabres moving a D-man?

At some point, yes, a move is likely.  For me, I’d hold off on doing so though until Brandon Montour comes back and gets into game shape.  Yes, that might push Henri Jokiharju to the press box for a few games which isn’t ideal for a youngster but it would be the safe play.  See how Montour fares with Rasmus Ristolainen and Colin Miller on the right side and then figure out which one is the most expendable.  It’s starting to seem like the odds of Ristolainen being the one to move are decreasing and speculatively, I wonder if Montour could be the one to go now.

The market for him would be strong considering it took a first-round pick and Brendan Guhle to get him back in February so a similar price tag would be expected here.  He’s also due for a sizable raise over the offseason at the time where from a team perspective, a long-term pact that buys out some UFA years would be desirable.  Montour isn’t likely to have a big enough role as long as Ristolainen plays heavy minutes and Miller logs more than what most third pairing options are so he probably would hesitate to sign long-term with Buffalo for now.

Of course, if another defenseman goes down with an injury over the next few weeks, that could all change in a flash.

Gerald Arrington: Gavin, is there a list of by years that have the NHL Salary Cap figures increase, have messaged before as I had seen it on a story regarding the Seattle Expansion about 3-4 months ago, which indicated that salary cap will rise when they enter league, I believe you wrote the story, maybe wrong, with it at $81.5 million , and rise each year till Seattle it will be $85 million per team ,what about the years in between , by listing by year. Thanks!

First, here’s the salary cap history by year:

2005-06: $39MM
2006-07: $44MM
2007-08: $50.3MM
2008-09: $56.7MM
2009-10: $56.8MM
2010-11: $94.3MM
2011-12: $64.3MM
2012-13: $60MM ($70.2MM pro-rated)
2013-14: $64.3MM
2014-15: $69MM
2015-16: $71.4MM
2016-17: $73MM
2017-18: $75MM
2018-19: $79.5MM
2019-20: $81.5MM

As you can see, the changes have been all over the board since it was instituted.  There’s no fixed plan in place that says the cap will be $85MM or any fixed amount by the time Seattle reaches the NHL.  It all depends on the increase in hockey related revenues (commonly referred to as HRR) and how much, if any, of the 5% inflator the NHLPA decides to use.  While at the beginning, using the maximum was common (which is why there was a big jump in some of the early years), the high escrow rate has caused them to lessen that in an effort to get that under control.  Personally, I’d be surprised if the Upper Limit goes up by more than $2MM for 2020-21.  It’ll probably be a similar increase the following year as well so yes, an $85MM salary cap is probably a reasonable ballpark projection at this point by the time Seattle debuts but nothing for that season has been finalized just yet.

acarneglia: Teams that are the biggest surprises/disappointments in each division?

I’ve tackled some prediction questions like this in previous mailbags so rather than reiterate those thoughts here, instead, here’s some commentary on the surprises and disappointments over the first few weeks of the year.

Atlantic: Buffalo has been a pleasant surprise early on.  Yes, they had a stretch of games last season before completely collapsing and it could happen again.  However, I think they’re better up front and on the back end while having a better coach.  Perhaps they’re not a top-three team but they could very well be in the Wild Card race which didn’t seem likely just a few weeks ago.  There really hasn’t been a big disappointment just yet.  Florida has underwhelmed a bit but with a new coach (and therefore new system) in place, that’s not entirely shocking.

Metropolitan: Columbus has been more competitive than I expected early on.  I don’t expect them to continue to hover around the playoff picture as the season progresses but they’ve been a bit of a surprise so far.  On the flip side, New Jersey was my pick to surprise in terms of pushing for a playoff spot but they have floundered so far.

Central: I thought Colorado would get off to a strong start but I didn’t think they’d be this strong out of the gate.  There’s plenty of cause for optimism there.  Dallas and Minnesota have both been big disappointments though.  The Stars were a trendy pick to be a sneaky contender and with good reason following their offseason moves but they have just one win so far.  Meanwhile, I figured the Wild would dip a bit in the standings but they would at least still be competitively mediocre most nights.  But instead, they’re getting completely outclassed routinely.

Pacific: No one could have seen Edmonton’s hot start coming, not even the Oilers.  I question the sustainability of it but after a couple of disappointing years, it’s good to see some positives from them early on.  Anaheim’s quick start is arguably even more of a surprise (and happens to be led by one of Edmonton’s old coaches).  I’m not sold on that holding up but John Gibson can really carry a team.  San Jose’s slow start is a surprise on the other side of the coin.  That team has a lot more talent than their record early on and while I expect them to turn it around, they could be soon reaching the point that the Kings did a year ago where the drop off from contender to the fringes happens quicker than expected.

JDGoat: Do you think there’s an early struggling team that might try and make a “desperation” move to try and get things going?

Teams will undoubtedly try – I’m sure several are already actively seeking trades.  (I’d have Dallas and New Jersey while Pittsburgh is known to want to move a defenseman though that wouldn’t qualify as a desperation move.)  However, there’s a reason that the trade market is generally silent at this point of the season.  Most teams want to see what they have, what they need, and what they can afford to part with.  They also want to evaluate early performances in the AHL; are some players ready for a full-time promotion?  It’s a little too early to make that call when the minor league season is only a few weeks old.

The other issue is the salary cap.  A lot of teams are tight to the Upper Limit so they lack the cap room to make any substantial changes.  Those teams need to make ‘money in, money out’ deals and those are difficult to make.  There may be a tweak trade or two in the coming weeks but the bigger deals that would qualify as a shakeup are still a ways away from happening.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.