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Islanders Notes: Salary Cap, Free Agents, Ilya Sorokin

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Many teams are facing troubling cap situations over the next two seasons (assuming the CBA passes and the cap freezes at $81.5MM). Count the New York Islanders among the troubled.

Though they don’t have any exorbitant deals, the Islanders have a whole host of contracts in the $3-6MM range. With $71.38MM already committed to their roster for next season, there’s a decent likelihood that GM Lou Lamoriello will have to let all their pending unrestricted free agents walk, per The Athletic’s Arthur Staple. That would mean Matt Martin, Derick Brassard, Tom Kuhnhackl, Andy Greene, and Thomas Greiss all hitting the open market. Then again, with many teams facing this crunch, free agents may face a depressed market, potentially allowing teams to grab some bargain short-term deals.

  • Greiss is probably the biggest on-ice contributor from that group, though if all goes well, Ilya Sorokin could join the club and take on that role. Martin might be the bigger loss in a spiritual sense. Despite a two-year hiatus in Toronto, Martin has spent nine years in New York, and his grinding style of play has made him popular among the locals. He’s also the most likely to return, as the fourth-liner may not command a whole lot in free agency after marking 0.4 point shares this season.
  • The bigger issue, Staples writes, is with the Islanders restricted free agents: namely, Mathew Barzal. Just two years removed from winning the Calder Trophy, Barzal is in line for a hefty raise, even if he settles for a bridge contract. With Ryan Pulock, Devon Toews, and potentially Sorokin (more on this later) also restricted free agents, the Islanders will look to shed a contract or two to free up enough money to keep these central young players in the fold. The team has been resistant to trading Nick Leddy, but his $5.5MM could be rerouted to players more likely to play key roles moving forward. Leddy remains a viable blueliner, and though they’re not likely to return a significant asset for him, New York can get out from under his contract if they need the money. Another former Blackhawk, Andrew Ladd, would be another trade piece, but at 35-years-old and with only 30 games played over the last two seasons, they’re not likely to find a taker for the veteran forward – nor can they get any savings from buying him out. More likely for Ladd, Staples notes, is landing on the long-term injured reserve, which would allow the Islanders to go over the cap by $5.5MM.
  • Even though signing Sorokin now will burn his one year ELC, the Islanders are probably going to do so anyway to get him in the fold, writes Staple in another piece. It will make him a restricted free agent for next season, but the Islanders appear ready to bring him in to start working with their coaches. Since the KHL doesn’t typically allow opt-outs, New York would rather bring him in and have him ready for next season rather than lose him to the KHL for another season.

COVID-19 Outbreak In Edmonton Hospital Doesn’t Alter NHL Plans

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All services have been closed to the public at Edmonton’s Misericordia Hospital after a COVID-19 outbreak left 20 patients and 15 staff members infected, per Nicole Bergot of the Edmonton Journal. Edmonton, of course, is prepared to be one of the NHL’s hub cities as play resumes on August 1.

The NHL and NHLPA have seemingly put together an amazing week of work to find common ground in the hopes of returning to play – and as of right now, this outbreak doesn’t change the NHL’s plans, per Jason Kay of the Hockey News. These playoffs – should they happen – will be unlike anything the NHL has orchestrated in recent years.

To briefly recap: the 5 through 12 seeds in each conference are preparing for head-to-head five-game series on neutral ice that will determine the final four playoff competitors in each conference. Though the stakes are as high or maybe higher than a traditional NHL playoff series, the scope and logistics are much different.

For starters, there’s the simple fact that after a long layoff, players are jumping right into an elimination round. They are trying to work themselves back into game shape in the most unique environment they’ve likely ever played. Facing potential separation from their families and the constant fear of contracting coronavirus, the “it’s only a game” idiom no longer holds true. On the other hand, assuming most players can “get back to it” without setbacks – a huge assumption – it’s the same game these players have played their entire lives.

Still, to jump right into a five-game elimination round (as opposed to the typical seven-game playoff) could set the stage for even more parity than in most years. Not only will teams have less room for error, but top seeds have lost the advantage of home ice. Broadly-speaking, this lowers their probability of surviving any given game from 55 percent to an even 50-50 split, per TSN’s Travis Yost.

The Edmonton Oilers are one of two squads who will get to play on their home ice. And while there won’t be any fans allowed in the stadium, the organization is still exploring ways to capture a modicum of home-ice advantage elsewhere in the city, writes Terry Jones of the Edmonton Sun. Given the risks of gathering any large crowds, it’s hard to imagine the Oilers pulling this off in any substantive way – especially after news of this most recent outbreak.

Still, coronavirus isn’t going away, and outbreaks of some variety are to be expected. If Edmonton gets a handle on this situation, it might provide the league with even more confidence in its viability as a hub city.

NHL Players Grappling With Monday’s Opt-Out Deadline

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NHL players will have three extra days to decide whether or not to play in the 24-team playoff that begins on August 1, per Adrian Dater of Colorado Hockey Now. Anyone opting out will have to do so before Monday night.

But don’t expect a whole host of skaters to sit this one out, writes The Athletic’s Scott Burnside. Families being allowed into hub cities starting with the conference championships have allayed some concerns, but there are still players with pregnant wives and pre-existing conditions who must think twice before putting themselves at risk.

One general manager, speaking anonymously, posited that there was a good chunk of NHL players who do not prefer to return to play under these conditions, per Burnside. This is a refrain we’ve heard numerous times in recent weeks, but always anonymously. That fact alone speaks to the complicated cultural hurdles facing the NHL. The option of opting out is always couched in this idea that NHL’s culture of toughness won’t allow for abstainers.

The Columbus Blue Jackets, for one, don’t expect anyone to opt-out, but that doesn’t mean it’s an automatic call, writes The Athletic’s Aaron Portzline. Portzline spells out the dilemma facing Nick Foligno to give a sense of the types of decisions players are dealing with: “He’s the Blue Jackets’ captain, so he has an enormous responsibility within the dressing room. But he’s also the father of a child with a pre-existing condition. His daughter, Milana, was born with a congenital heart defect and has had multiple surgeries. That makes her more vulnerable to the COVID-19 virus.”

The league itself does not require players to cite any specific reason for opting out. Given the culture of the NHL, however, it seems that any player who makes that choice will be scrutinized. And yet, that’s not the same as being stigmatized – and that’s an important distinction. There’s a lot of understanding in the league right now, and given the absolute dangers of COVID-19, players and coaches alike realize that the decision to play – or not to play – is deeply personal.

Snapshots: NHLPA Executive Board Approves CBA, DEL, LeBlanc, Stutzle

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The NHL and NHLPA have crossed another hurdle to ratifying their CBA extension, the NHLPA announced. The NHL’s Executive Board has approved of the extended CBA and sent it to the NHLPA membership for a vote. The full body of NHL players still needs to cast their ballots, which is expected to take place sometime over the next 48 hours. Only a simple majority is needed to pass, per Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman. As we await the final vote, let’s check-in elsewhere around the NHL…

  • Former Chicago Blackhawks prospect Drew LeBlanc signed a two-year extension to stay with Augsburger Panther of the Deutsche Eishockey Liga, per NHL.com’s Brandon Cain. LeBlanc appeared in two games with the Blackhawks in 2012-2013 and last appeared stateside with the AHL’s Ice Hogs in 2014-2015. He’s carved out a role in Germany over the last five years, scoring exactly 11 goals in the last four. He posted a career-high 49 points last season for Augsburger.
  • Speaking of the DEL, top draft prospect Tim Stutzle put up 34 points (7 goals, 27 assists) for Adler Mannheim last season, a strong enough showing to put him in the running to become the highest-drafted German prospect ever (Leon Draisaitl went number 3 overall to the Oilers in 2014). As a consensus top-5 prospect, Stutzle – who has drawn comparisons to Patrick Kane for his offensive creativity – could go as high as number two to the Los Angeles Kings, who may understand Stutzle’s path better than most, writes The Athletic’s Lisa Dillman.
  • Kings’ assistant coach Marco Sturm took a similar path on his way to the San Jose Sharks in 1997-1998. Sturm ought to be able to help connect the Kings’ to whatever intel they need on Stutzle. Most pundits suggest the Kings’ choice will come down to Stutzle or Quinton Byfield, though Jamie Drysdale could be in the running as well, which Dillman wrote about in-depth here.

 

Prospect Notes: Cozens, Harvard, Beniers, Kings

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The future is bright for the Wild, Flyers, Senators, and Kings, per The Athletic’s Scott Wheeler. Each of those four clubs tied for the lead with four prospects making Wheeler’s top-50 list, headlined by Dylan Cozens of the Sabres in the top spot. The same can’t be said for the Lightning, Blue Jackets, Jets, Blackhawks, and Bruins, all of whom failed to register a single prospect on the list. Wheeler qualifies the case for the Jets and Blue Jackets as each had a pair of prospects close to making the list, and the Blackhawks, who have recently graduated players like Adam Boqvist and Kirby Dach, while blueliner Ian Mitchell garnered consideration.

  • As if tracking NHL prospects isn’t artful enough, it’s going to get a whole lot more complicated as college athletics tries to find its way amid the coronavirus pandemic. Harvard released a statement today announcing all classes will be offered online and on-campus students will be capped at 40% of the student body. Athletics are going to be impacted, but it’s not yet clear what kind of season, if any, college hockey will have in 2020-2021. As ESPN’s Chris Peters points out, that’s going to affect the next couple of drafts, as Harvard alone had a number of potential draft prospects, including potential first-rounder Matt Beniers.
  • The Los Angeles Kings have a big decision looming after winning the number two overall pick in next year’s draft. Of course, they have plenty of time to study their options, writes Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times. With an uncertain picture of next season, the draft presents the Kings with their largest dose of certainty. The top pick is going to be Alexis Lafreniere, leaving VP and GM Rob Blake with his pick of the rest. Harris provides a quote from Blake, who said: “You can narrow it down to three or four players where you’re really starting to zero in, instead of a group. But you’re going to review all the prep you did leading up to this one more time to have it fresh on your mind.” In addition, the Kings have three second-round picks and a pair each in the third and fourth round. Of course, though the Kings know when in the draft they’ll pick, they still don’t know when the draft will take place.

Latest On Impact Of Coronavirus On NHL, CBA Talks

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With the NHL’s report today announcing 23 confirmed cases of coronavirus out of the 396 players in camp, data points are emerging that might reveal the NHL’s risk tolerance as it returns to play. Still, we remain in the dark about what it would take to shut the whole thing down, per the Athletic’s Justin Bourne. Presumably, so long as the integrity of the competition remains intact, games will go on – the adjudication of that line provides a ton of interpretability, however. It’s rote for teams to lose a player or two before the playoffs due to injury, but there would never be a threshold for cancellation prior to coronavirus. Terms of a shutdown are said to have been defined in the recent agreement between the NHL and NHLPA, even if we don’t yet know its definition. More from Bourne and elsewhere around the NHL:

  • Bourne adds an interesting wrinkle, noting that with so many players from the Toronto area, the threat of breaking the bubble is greater in Toronto where family and friends are the temptations versus the alluring entertainment options of, say, Vegas. It’s nice to think that all players and staff will adhere to the strict rules of the hub quarantine, it’s also likely unrealistic.
  • Bourne also touches on some details of the proposed CBA. With the help of The Athletic’s Jonathan Willis, Bourne notes that entry-level contracts are expected to see a bump in pay, a surprising evolution that obviously benefits young players in a strictly financial sense. But the pay increase may also incentivize teams to prioritize veterans on minimum deals over a max ELC prospect. The balance between paying young players an acceptable wage and washing out the market for minimum-wage vets is a complicated relationship in all sports, but if the proposed increase holds, NHL clubs could find increased value in a minimum-price veteran.
  • NHL Players have until next Tuesday, July 13th (the start of Phase 3) to opt-out of the 24-team playoff, veteran NHL writer John Shannon reminds us. A number of players in the NBA and MLB have chosen to opt-out of the season, but we haven’t heard as much of those rumblings from the NHL. It’s been presupposed that the culture of toughness would attach a stigma to players electing not to play, but we should find out for sure within the next week.
  • Shannon also notes that Oiler’s owner Daryl Katz played a key role in moving the NHL’s hub location from Las Vegas to Edmonton (via Twitter). Katz spoke to the NHL Board about the safety benefits of hosting play in Edmonton, and he was apparently convincing. The surging number of coronavirus cases in Nevada surely played a role as well.

Oilers Notes: Maksimov, Green

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Prospect winger Kirill Maksimov has the opportunity to develop into a potent offensive weapon down the line for the Edmonton Oilers, but he’ll need the right situation to do so, per David Staples of the Edmonton Journal. Maksimov, 21, put up 13 points in 53 games for the AHL’s Bakersfield Condors before the shutdown this season. On his potential moving forward, Staples writes: “Maksimov is never going to be a big driver of the play. He is a true complimentary winger, who thrives with playmaking centres capable of getting him the puck while he finds open spots on the ice. He does have quick hands and underrated playmaking ability, but needs that speedy and/or skilled pivot on his line who can push the pace. Basically, he’s the type of player who plays better with better talent around him.” Luckily for Maksimov, he plays for an organization with no current shortage of star players. Speaking of, let’s check in on the Oilers and their plans for the Stanley Cup Qualifier showdown with the Blackhawks…

  • The Oilers are the heavy favorites to advance past the Blackhawks to the Western Conference playoffs after a .585 points percentage during the season. Chicago has an interesting mix of been-there-done-that veterans and undercooked up-and-comers, but they were the last team added to the play-in round and haven’t shown a consistent enough approach to tackle the star-studded Oilers. Edmonton, meanwhile, figures to be fully healthy with defenseman Mike Green the only key injury after an MCL sprain knocked out the veteran blueliner. Green expects to be ready to join Kris Russell on the Oiler’s third pairing, per Tracey Myers of NHL.com.
  • Green played just two games with the Oilers after being acquired from Detroit in late February. Paired with a veteran like Russell, there would be less concern about finding the right working chemistry, but the Oilers have depth options if Green proves unready. Matt Benning is in his fourth season with the team, and youngsters Caleb Jones and William Lagesson also saw ice time this year. All things being equal, however, Green figures to be the guy on the ice. Green has appeared in 76 career playoff games with the Washington Capitals and Detroit Red Wings, putting up a noteworthy 37 points (10 goals, 37 assists) over that span. Green will be an unrestricted free agent at season’s end.

Snapshots: COVID-19 Update, Blackhawks

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Let’s check in on the latest from around the NHL…

  • Moments ago, the NHL Pubic Relations Twitter account released their newest statement regarding COVID-19 testing. Per the statement, 396 players have reported to training camp, 2,900 COVID-19 tests have been administered, and there have been 23 confirmed positive tests. Twelve additional players have tested positive among those who have not reported to camp. Names of those 35 total NHL players will not be released by the league. At least for now, it appears as if the number of confirmed coronavirus cases hasn’t spiked, though it’s just a two-week sample, and there are many hurdles yet to clear.
  • The NFL’s Washington Redskins and MLB’s Cleveland Indians have been in the news recently as pressure from corporate sponsors finally pushed the Redskins’ famously-intransigent owner Dan Snyder to consider a name change. The public pressure hasn’t reached that level for the Chicago Blackhawks, but make no mistake the public conversation is happening, per The Athletic’s Scott Powers. Powers’ piece is well worth a read. He lays the groundwork for both sides of the issue while covering the history of the name in this thoughtful and thorough article.

Juuso Valimaki Unlikely To Re-Join Flames This Year

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While there is an ever-growing list of players previously deemed to be out for the season that are now appearing likely to be available to their respective teams at some point in the upcoming expanded postseason, don’t expect young Calgary Flames defenseman Juuso Valimaki to join the trend. Sportsnet’s Eric Francis reports that Valimaki, who has missed the whole 2019-20 season, is not likely to re-join the Flames in their qualifying round match-up with the Winnipeg Jets or at any point in the playoffs should they advance. The risk, both to the player and team, outweigh the potential gains in this situation and Francis does not believe that Calgary will take the chance.

Health continues to be the major issue at hand when it comes to Valimaki. The 21-year-old defenseman suffered a torn ACL in his right knee during off-season training last summer. He underwent surgery in late August. By all accounts, including that of Flames GM Brad Treliving, recovery and rehab from ACL reconstruction is ten months to a year. While Valimaki has been participating in voluntary skates with his teammates in Calgary, he has yet to be medically cleared by the team’s medical staff. If he is on pace for the latter end of that expected timeline, Valimaki would not be prepared for game action by the time the knockout round is set to begin and would have to prove he is up to the physical requirements of playoff hockey should the Flames advance.

However, the non-medical reason behind not playing Valimaki may be even more compelling. As Francis details, Calgary has more long-term, team building considerations to take into account in the form of the impending 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Assuming the Flames protect seven forwards and three defensemen in the draft, they would eliminate a very difficult decision if Valimaki does not play a game this season. The young blue liner used up his first season of pro competition as a rookie in 2018-19, but will not be credited with a year of service if he does not play this year. This would make him ineligible for draft exposure, as only those with more than two years of pro service may be selected. However, should Valimaki play even one game this year, he would require protection in next summer’s draft or otherwise would be picked off by Seattle. Francise believes that Flames defenders Noah Hanifin and Rasmus Andersson are locks for protection and that Valimaki would be as well if eligible, leaving veteran captain and top defender Mark Giordano exposed and a very likely candidate to be selected.

Playing Valimaki this season is not worth that risk. The young defenseman is very talented but has not played competitive hockey in over a year and it is hard to imagine that his surgically reconstructed knee or even his conditioning would be ready for an immediate jump into postseason play. On top of that, the Flames have Giordano, Hanifin, Andersson, T.J. Brodie, Travis Hamonic, Oliver Kylington and Michael Stone to lean on, making Valimaki an expendable piece of this year’s playoff run, especially if it helps to maintain the roster for future title chances.

Snapshots: Training Camp Start Date, Rask Free Agency, 2020 Young Stars Classic, Lindblom Recovery

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Phase 2 of the NHL’s return to play initiative is well underway, but the rest of the timeline is still being finalized. Phase 3, originally planned for July 10, is being pushed back a couple of days to July 13th, per Greg Joyce of the New York Post. Teams already are looking into cutting the number of exhibition games from 2 to 1 given the shortened timetable and increased risk with each passing day, per Louis Jean of TVA Sports. Phase 3 marks the official start to training camp for the 24-team playoff that will determine the Stanley Cup winner for the 2019-2020 season. Team facilities have largely opened up as players have begun to arrive early to get into game shape. But that’s not all that’s happening in the NHL…

  • The Boston Bruins and goaltender Tuukka Rask are close to embarking on a classic game of free agent chicken. Both Rask and his partner between the pipes Jaroslav Halak will be free agents at the end of the 2020-2021 season. We chronicled earlier today the deal that brought Task to Boston fourteen years ago, but if the Bruins are going to lock up their 33-year-old goalie, it’s likely going to cost – Rask’s current $7MM price tag makes him the fifth highest-paid goaltender this season, behind Carey Price, Sergei Bobrovsky, Henrik Lundqvist, and Marc-Andre Fleury, writes Joe Haggerty of NBC Sports. Rask has a legitimate shot at winning his second Vezina Trophy, and the tandem of Rask and Halak already secured the Jennings Trophy for the year. On the other hand, depending on how next season goes, Rask could take a pay cut, given that he’ll be entering his age-35 season.
  • The 2020 Young Stars Classic has officially been postponed because of coronavirus, per Mark Scheig of The Hockey Writers. The four-team, round-robin tournament would have featured prospects from four of the NHL’s Canadian franchises: Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, and Winnipeg. The tournament had been scheduled for mid-September, but it’s now officially postponed. There’s no telling at this stage if the tournament will ultimately be canceled or just pushed back.
  • In a bit of good news: Philadelphia Flyers’ winger Oskar Lindblom recently underwent radiation treatments to treat Ewing’s sarcoma, per Dan Gelston of The Associated Press. The rare form of bone cancer ended Lindblom’s season early and put his life in danger, but the treatments went as planned and he appears to be on the road to recovery. Not only that, but he’s already targeting a return to the NHL, tweets The Athletic’s Charlie O’Connor. Lindblom, 23, looked to build on his strong rookie season when he posted 33 points with 13:45 ATOI for the Flyers in 2018-2019. He potted 11 goals with 7 assists in just 30 games before his life-threatening diagnosis. There is zero chance that Lindblom returns this season, but that he’s already eyeing a return to the ice at all is a big win for Lindblom and the Flyers. 

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