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Potential 2016-17 Impact Rookies: Aho, Bjorkstrand, Werenski, Buchnevich

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It seems we’ve spent most of the offseason talking about Jimmy Vesey and pondering which of his many suitors would ultimately be fortunate enough to add him to their ranks. That chase is finally over with the New York Rangers coming out on top in their efforts to land the prized UFA forward from Harvard. Whether or not Vesey performs up to the high expectations all of the summer hype would suggest remains to be seen, of course, but this saga serves as a reminder of just how much teams value young talent on entry-level deals.

With the salary cap – or in some cases, internal budgets – forcing teams to allow quality veteran pieces to depart each summer in search of a bigger pay day, teams need young players to step in and fill roles vacated by experienced players. The CBA limits how much a player can earn on their ELC thus allowing clubs more freedom to spend lavishly on star players as long as they have enough young talent to balance out their budgets. By virtue of his status as an UFA limited to signing an ELC, Vesey has understandably garnered an unusually high level of attention for a soon-to-be first year player but he won’t be the only rookie expected to make a near immediate impact with his team in 2016-17.

In a series of posts, Pro Hockey Rumors will profile first-year players who will have an opportunity to step in right away and fill a potentially critical role for their team. Today we start in the Metro Division. (Note: In an effort to keep these posts relatively short, some divisions may be covered in multiple posts).

Sebastian Aho (Carolina) – Aho was the Hurricanes second-round choice in the 2015 draft out of Finland and signed his ELC with the club in June. He led his Liiga team (Finland’s top professional league), Karpat, in scoring in 2015-16 tallying 20 goals and 45 points in 45 games. Aho also has achieved remarkable success representing his home country at both the 2016 IIHF World Championships and the 2016 World Juniors. He recorded seven points for the silver medal winning Finns at the World Championships while averaging two points per game – 14 in seven contests – in helping Finland win gold at the Juniors tournament.

It would seem given his performances on some of the biggest stages in the sport that Aho should be ready for the NHL game. Count Hurricanes GM Ron Francis among those who believe Aho can contribute in Carolina immediately.

“Sebastian is regarded as one of the top prospects in hockey and is ready to begin his North American career. He had a tremendous season as an 18-year-old playing against men in Finland’s top league, and was outstanding in international competitions including the recent World Championship. He will play an important role for the Hurricanes moving forward.”

Carolina’s depth chart on Roster Resource lists Aho as the team’s third right wing and given Francis’ quotes, it seems probable he will be given every opportunity to become a key contributor right out of the gate. The Hurricanes have an excellent young blue line but need help up front if they wish to challenge for the playoffs. Aho’s skills and playmaking abilities would be a welcome addition to Carolina’s forward ranks.

Oliver Bjorkstrand (Columbus) – Danish forward Oliver Bjorkstrand proved he was ready for a prime time role with the Blue Jackets during an impressive playoff run as a member of the Lake Erie Monsters, Columbus’ AHL affiliate. The Monsters lost just one game en route to winning a Calder Cup and Bjorkstrand helped pave the way tallying 10 postseason goals. He was even more prolific in the Calder Cup Finals scoring five times, with three proving to be of the game-winning variety.

His head coach with the Monsters, Jared Bednar, had this to say about Bjorkstrand:

“He has a will to win that’s unparalleled, and that’s why he has always been successful, no matter where he’s been.”

The Blue Jackets have several quality young players that will soon be ready to challenge for NHL roles but Bjorkstrand’s determination and recent postseason success should give him an advantage over his peers at cracking the Columbus lineup. Columbus could theoretically compete for a playoff spot, assuming a return to health and form from goalie Sergei Bobrovsky, along with an improved defense corps. Bjorkstrand should add more skilled depth to the forward group and he could enjoy a productive season if he finds chemistry with the right players.

Zach Werenski (Columbus) – Possibly joining Bjorkstrand in Columbus in time for the 2016-17 season is D Zach Werenski. Werenski, the team’s first round pick in 2015, eighth overall, played two seasons at the University of Michigan prior to signing his ELC last spring. He would see action in seven AHL regular season games, scoring one goal, before embarking on an excellent playoff run. In 17 postseason contests, Werenski tallied five goals and 14 points in helping the Monsters to the Calder Cup.

Werenski already boasts NHL size at 6-foot-2 and 209 pounds and adds tremendous skating ability as well as poise under pressure. Even after the addition of rising star Seth Jones via a mid-season trade with Nashville and the presence of Ryan Murray, Werenski has an excellent shot to break training camp with the big club. If Werenski develops as expected, the Blue Jackets could quickly transform their blue line from one of the league’s worst to one of the best in relatively short order.

Pavel Buchnevich (New York Rangers) – Vesey isn’t the only rookie the Rangers will likely be welcoming to the lineup for the 2016-17 season. Pavel Buchnevich, the team’s top prospect and a 2013 third round choice, elected to make the jump to North America and signed his ELC this past spring. While skating in the KHL, widely considered the second best league in the word behind the NHL, Buchnevich tallied a respectable 37 points in 58 regular season games.

To put those numbers in a bit of perspective, Rob Vollman in the Hockey Abstract has constructed a predictive chart to convert offensive numbers from one league to another based primarily on historical data involving players appearing in both leagues and how they’ve fared moving from one to the other. Buchnevich’s points-per-game ratio in the KHL projects to be roughly the equivalent of a 40-point campaign in the NHL based on Vollman’s chart. That’s pretty solid for a 20-year-old player.

The Rangers wouldn’t seem to need much of an offensive boost after finishing seventh in the NHL in goal scoring and returning much of their top-six forward talent – excepting of course the swap of Derick Brassard for Mika Zibanejad – but Alain Vigneault tends to use his third line as much or more than most NHL head coaches. That should allow for a rookie with the skill and ability of Buchnevich to earn quality ice time while also shielding him from the tougher match-ups.

 

West Notes: Rakell, Rattie, Gaudreau

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With the World Cup of Hockey fast approaching, another unsigned restricted free agent is headed to Toronto. According to Stephen Whyno of the Associated Press (who we interviewed just yesterday on PHR) Rickard Rakell will join the Swedish club replacing the injured Alexander Steen.  Steen had surgery in June on his shoulder, and is still trying to be ready for the opening of the regular season.

Rakell will be rewarded for last season’s breakout that saw him score 20 goals and 43 points in his second full season. Rakell remains one of the Ducks priorities this summer, along with fellow unsigned RFA Hampus Lindholm. The team, with only $6.6MM in cap space at the moment, may not have enough to sign both to long-term deals and may have to settle for the player-friendly bridge deal.

  • Among the news at Pro Hockey Talk’s St. Louis Blues day is that Ty Rattie will be given a real chance to stick with the big club this season.  Adam Gretz writes that with the team losing veteran forwards like David Backes, Steve Ott and Troy Brouwer to free agency, there is plenty of opportunities for young players like Rattie. This is in line with a similar article on NHL.com today, that quoted GM Doug Armstrong: “I think the game is getting faster, and youth is being served. I think we were going to transfer to this (youth movement) regardless.” Rattie has suited up for just 26 NHL games, but has proven his scoring ability at the AHL level with three straight 40+ point seasons.
  • After signing Sean Monahan earlier today to a seven-year deal, the Calgary Flames will now turn their attention to Johnny Gaudreau. Craig Custance of ESPN thinks that his deal will come in very close to Monahan’s, as the team views the situation as similar to Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane in Chicago. The Blackhawk stars signed identical $84MM deals in July of 2014, despite Kane having more career points (493 vs. 440). Monahan also has a full season more of NHL duty under his belt than Gaudreau, despite being more than a year younger than him. If the Flames can get both on long-term deals under $7MM, they’ll be set up nicely for the future with two underpaid superstars.

OHL Cracks Down On Fighting

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In a move that may preempt the NHL doing something similar, the OHL has announced its rule changes for the upcoming season and for fighting fans – you won’t like it.

Along with changes to the icings and instituting a “blindside hit rule”, which will see a penalty be assessed if a player is checked from “the blindside” (a determination that is in the referee’s discretion), the league will now lower their fighting suspension threshold from ten to just three per season. Once a player is involved in three fights, each following major will incur an automatic two-game suspension.

In 2012-13, the league instituted the policy, with the threshold being placed at ten fights. Since then, fights league-wide have decreased by almost half.  While the NHL wouldn’t make the same drastic change, for fear of upsetting part of its fanbase, installing these rules at the junior level will effectively end the development and encouragement of fighters as they move through the ranks.

Last season according to hockeyfights.com, only four players fought at least 10 times. Compare that to just five years ago, when 38 players passed that threshold, the leader, George Parros, dropping the gloves a whopping 27 times. While the Maple Leafs rewarded known scrapper Matt Martin with a four-year deal this offseason it was because he’s known as a player who can contribute, at least a little bit, while also “protecting” his teammates. The days of the enforcer are over, and with moves like today’s rule changes, they’re sure to never return.

Calgary Flames Reach Seven-Year Deal With Sean Monahan

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Sean Monahan is staying in Calgary a while longer. The team announced today that the restricted free agent has signed a seven-year deal. The value will come in at $44.625MM, a $6.375MM AAV and it will include a partial no-trade clause in the final three years. A press conference is to be scheduled for this afternoon to announce the deal.

Apr 7, 2016; Calgary, Alberta, CAN; Calgary Flames center Sean Monahan (23) controls the puck against the Vancouver Canucks during the second period at Scotiabank Saddledome. Calgary Flames won 7-3. Mandatory Credit: Sergei Belski-USA TODAY Sports

Monahan is a restricted free agent for the first time in his career, after posting 159 points through his first 237 career games. At just 21, he’s one of the best young centers in the game, and has found amazing chemistry with fellow star Johnny Gaudreau.

The sixth overall pick in what is turning out to be a fabulous 2013 draft, Monahan has proven he should be considered in the top echelon of centers in the NHL and will now stay long-term in Calgary. With he and Gaudreau publicly stating that they want to stay in the Canadian city, it was just a matter of time until the deal was finalized.

While they still need to sign Gaudreau, the Flames now seem poised to go on a long streak of contention, led by their dynamic duo up front. With Sam Bennett also making an impression in his first NHL season, they have three players 23 or younger who are capable of scoring 30 goals in a season. With Dougie Hamilton and T.J. Brodie locked up long-term on the back end, joining veteran and captain Mark Giordano, they have a core capable of making it back to the playoffs as soon as 2016-17.

[Related: Updated Calgary Flames Depth Chart]

Monahan’s $6.375MM cap-hit comes in just above Nathan MacKinnon’s number from earlier this summer, and his performance comes in right alongside the former first-overall pick (in the same draft as Monahan to boot). While Gaudreau will undoubtedly cost more, the Flames have left themselves enough room with a ton of money coming off the books after next season. Ladislav Smid, Dennis Wideman, Deryk Engelland and the goaltending duo of Brian Elliott and Chad Johnson all become unrestricted free agents next season, giving the club money to work with (for a new Bennett contract, for instance).

First teased by Eric Francis of Sportsnet this morning. Elliotte Friedman was first to give us the seven-year details, along with the dollar value. CapFriendly provided details on the NTC.

The Vesey Watch Is Coming To An End

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This morning one of the most trusted names in hockey journalism finally gave us what we’ve been waiting for – an end.  Bob McKenzie of TSN chimed in on the Jimmy Vesey situation for the first time, to tell us that it is coming to and end today, probably. While McKenzie says it may stretch until Saturday, it will go no further than that. Andrew Gross of The Record also hears that it’ll end today, as does Mike Harrington of the Buffalo News.

Arthur Staple of Newsday gives us the latest update on the finalists; he’s heard that it’s down to the New York Rangers and Chicago Blackhawks, noting that the Islanders made a strong push but fell short.

An amazing amount of proverbial and literal ink has been spilled over the free agency of Vesey, more than most prospects get in their entire amateur careers. Now, with it coming to an end, Vesey will have to start performing immediately or risk the ire of an entire fanbase.

If the Harvard grad struggles, like many prospects before him, he’ll be met with songs of “all that for this guy?” at his home arena and “over-hyped” will be firmly entrenched beside his name in the program. But for all the hype that the media (including PHR) has created, Vesey is none to blame. He’s done nothing but exercise his rights under the current CBA, just as other players have done in the last few days.

Three things have made it into a media whirlwind though: the lack of other hockey news in August, the uncertainty of the level of college hockey in the USA when compared to other amateur leagues, and the relatively poor free agent market after its biggest name re-signed before July 1.

Obviously, as any other year, August is one of the slowest months for hockey news.  Teams have built their core, and are waiting for training camp to open. While many fringe free agents remain unsigned, the meat has been almost completely stripped from the bone.

The NCAA still proves to be a hard league to create equivalents from. Because the league has such a spread of talent, and has only started to become respected as a strong development option in the last couple of decades, fans and media alike aren’t sure exactly how to examine base statistics.

In the CHL, it’s common to see top prospects crack 100 points and dominate in their draft year. But the college ranks play less games, and require more of their athletes outside of hockey – indeed, Vesey will graduate with a degree from Harvard University, and to put it in his own words: “College is an ultrastressful environment — we’re balancing school, hockey, internships, our social lives and so many other things.” The fact is that the Frozen Four isn’t as well covered as the Memorial Cup (the CHL championship) is in Canada, and that many fans have never even seen a college hockey game, and they’re just not sure what Vesey really is.

What he isn’t, though, is Steven Stamkos. When Steve Yzerman pulled the unthinkable and re-signed his superstar centerman just prior to him becoming a free agent, the summer lost its biggest story. All of a sudden the best free agent in history was off the market, and we were left with an unspectacular group (despite the amount of money that was spent on it). Vesey represents the unknown, and for at least a handful of teams (a group similar to the ones reportedly “in” on Stamkos) another chance to land the summer’s biggest fish.

Front Offices On Jimmy Vesey

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After completing his meetings with team representatives today (which include names like John Tavares, Jonathan Toews and Auston Matthews) Jimmy Vesey will have to decide where he plays his first professional hockey game. TSN spoke with a couple of front office members about Vesey’s future, and they bring up separate but interesting points:

Brendan Shanahan, President & Alternate Governor, Toronto Maple Leafs (link):

He’s had a fabulous college career, and has earned the right to have this kind of interest from this many clubs, us being one of them. People are attracted to his leadership qualities; captain of Harvard, he’s obviously a very intelligent player on the ice and off, and he’s a guy who seems to have the ability to put the puck in the net, so when those types of players come available people line up.

Brian Burke, President of Hockey Ops, Calgary Flames (link):

If you look at the college free agents, they have made a dramatically insignificant contribution to our league. Tyler Bozak might be the best one. Of the 100 or 150 that have signed, most have very little impact. I think this player is going to play, and make a difference. I think he’s going to be a good player..but if you look at that group and the money the league has spent on their contribution, it’s a pimple on an elephant’s butt.

Back in February, when the Nashville Predators still held Vesey’s rights, GM David Poile spoke about his ability and future with the team:

We’ve had him here for our development camps each of the last two or three summers and he’s grown so much as a player and a person. Physically, he’s ready to play. As far as a college hockey player, he’s dominant in a lot of areas; one of them is his skating. Obviously, offensively he’s put up a lot of good numbers, so we truly believe that he can come in and play right away.

It’s clear that not everyone in the league is sold on Vesey’s ability to step in and be a difference maker at the NHL level, but the amount of teams that have taken meetings with him over the past few days would suggest they believe he at least will be able to step in right away. Vesey, or at least his agent Peter Fish, has only said that he’ll make a decision this weekend at some point.

Puck And Player Tracking To Be Used At World Cup

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The World Cup of Hockey had a press conference today in Toronto, announcing several things about the upcoming tournament.  Among the most interesting, was the revelation that player and puck tracking will be in full effect. Players will have microchips sewed into their sweaters, with the puck also having a sensor embedded inside of it.

Data will be calculated on puck and player speed, trajectory, acceleration and spacing, and will be used during the live broadcasts.  For the analytics community, this is huge news, as more data is always a good thing, and the precise movement of each player with and away from the puck will lend itself to stronger analysis. The NHL will use this as a test for a possible future league-wide roll out, though no information has been given on a possible timeline.

The team jerseys at the tournament will also feature advertising for the first time, as the NHL and NHLPA came to an agreement with SAP (a German software corporation) to be the prime sponsor. Shoulder patches will be sewn into each sweater, opening the door for future advertising.  The Air Canada Centre will also have animated board advertising installed, much to the chagrin of fans.

Snapshots: Roy, Vesey, Oilers

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When Patrick Roy suddenly resigned as head coach of the Colorado Avalanche last week the hockey world, along with GM Joe Sakic, was stunned to say the least. While Sakic said all the right things, and refused to throw his former teammate under the bus, Terry Frei from the Denver Post writes that it was how their relationship had developed that caused Roy to exit so abruptly.

In the piece, Frei writes that though Roy had a big impact on personnel and development decisions in his first three years, as someone holding a vice-president of hockey operations should, he’d been slowly edged out as Sakic gained more confidence and experience on the job.  To quote Frei: “Did he quit on the Avs? Sure, he did. As coach. Because he thought he had been fired as a VP.”

The Avalanche are still looking for someone to fill the head coaching role, and as Frei reports, Sakic has indicated that none of the current assistant coaches are being considered. We profiled five candidates here who may find their phones ringing at some point, though many are already under contract with another team, if in a lesser role.

  • The Jimmy Vesey sweepstakes continued today, with the final team meetings taking place.  Multiple reports have current players attending the meetings in order to sway his decision, with John Tavares being one of the biggest names confirmed (via James Mirtle). Though the Islanders may still be seen as outsiders, a promised role next to Tavares is definitely something any player would have to consider, and with P.A. Parenteau currently penciled in, it wouldn’t take much to offer it.  Other teams are obviously offering similar things, with Jonathan Toews (link) and Auston Matthews (link) both in Boston to meet the Harvard grad.
  • In his latest column, David Staples of the Edmonton Journal posits that the Oilers will never be successful while they keep trotting out a few weak-links, despite the obvious top-end talent on the roster. In analyzing the roster, Staples references Chris Anderson and David Salley’s book “The Numbers Game: Why Everything You Know About Soccer Is Wrong“, and applies their “O-ring player” idea to some recent Oilers like Anton Lander, Mark Fayne and Mark Letestu.  While a team can’t have NHL stars in every roster spot,  it’s these weak-links that are holding the team back from ever capitalizing on their young stars’ success.

Eastern Conference Notes: Alfredsson, Hrivik, Jurco, Kennedy

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The Ottawa Senators announced this afternoon that they will retire the #11 sweater worn for 17 seasons by former captain Daniel Alfredsson in a pregame ceremony prior to their December 29, 2016 tilt against the Red Wings. Alfredsson, of course, wrapped up his remarkable career with Detroit so choosing a game between the only two NHL franchises “Alfie” ever played for makes perfect sense.

Alfredsson was drafted all the way down in the sixth round of the 1994 entry draft, after 132 other players had already come off the board. He would make his NHL debut during the 1995-96 campaign as a 23-year-old and would go on to win the Calder Trophy as the league’s top rookie, scoring 26 goals and 61 points in 82 games. He would ultimately go on to set Ottawa franchise records in goals (426), assists (682), points (1,108), even-strength goals (270) and power play goals (131).

After such a lengthy and prodigious career, Alfredsson has essentially become synonymous with Ottawa Senators hockey and he deserves to have the honor of his #11 hanging in the rafters at Canadian Tire Center.

Elsewhere among the league’s eastern teams….

  • Jim Cerny of Blueshirts United spoke with Rangers prospect Marek Hrivik about his chances of making the team after a solid campaign playing for their AHL affiliate in Hartford, and a brief five-game cup of coffee with the Rangers. Hrivik indicated the club is happy with his progress and that he is “close” to making it as an NHL regular. He will face plenty of competition in camp as fellow rookies Nicklas Jensen and Pavel Buchnevich will also be in the hunt for a job.
  • Another young player who faces an uphill battle to secure a regular role is Tomas Jurco of the Detroit Red Wings. Ansar Kan, writing for MLive.com, argues that Jurco will have to distinguish himself in camp at a time when the club will be missing several regular skaters who will be participating in the World Cup. Jurco looked like a core building block following a solid debut in 2013-14 when the then 21-year-old posted eight goals and 15 points in just 36 games. Since then, Jurco has tallied just 24 points in 87 contests and could find himself on the outside looking in with Detroit.
  • Finally, while some players are at least guaranteed a shot to win a job in camp, others like Tyler Kennedy are still waiting for a call from a club willing to offer another chance. Kennedy, who was in the same position last summer, is fearful he may not get another opportunity to prove he belongs in the NHL, as Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post Gazette writes. Kennedy did receive a camp invite last year from New Jersey and earned a contract with a solid showing. He would see action in 50 games for the Devils but scored just three goals along with 13 assists. Kennedy, who once scored 21 goals as a 24-year-old during the 2010-11 season in Pittsburgh, has seen his offensive production decline significantly ever since that breakout campaign. One advantage he does possess over other veterans clamoring for one last kick at the can is that he is still considered a speedy player. More teams are looking to add speed to their lineup, following the successful blueprint perfected by Pittsburgh, and Kennedy might be able to offer just that on the cheap to a team looking for a low-risk, bottom-six type of forward.

Vesey Updates: 8/16/2016

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4:00pm: Teams not considered major contenders for Jimmy Vesey will nonetheless reach out to the representatives of the college star. Even if there is only the slightest chance that Vesey will even meet with the team, it is still worth it to inquire about this unique situation. Two such teams in this position are the Carolina Hurricanes and Columbus Blue Jackets, though more will surely be calling.

12:32pm: The Boston Bruins are set up to make the final pitch to Vesey, according to Joe Haggerty of CSNNE.com. This may or may not give the Bruins an advantage over the competition but it can’t hurt Boston to have the final word as they work to recruit the hometown kid.

12:00pm: Even though they haven’t been linked previously as a contender for his services, we can nonetheless now count the Detroit Red Wings out of the Vesey sweepstakes. Ansar Kan of MLive reports that the Wings did indeed make a pitch to Vesey’s camp, focusing on the team’s depth and potential playing time, but according to assistant general manager Ryan Martin, the club was told that Vesey “preferred to play closer to home.” This news might potentially impact the Blackhawks odds of landing the coveted forward since Chicago also is not geographically close to Vesey’s hometown of Boston.

10:36am: Mike Harrington of the Buffalo News confirms the probability that Vesey will also meet with Chicago, Boston and the New York Rangers, “as soon as Wednesday,” before making his final decision by week’s end.

Jimmy Vesey, and speculation surrounding with whom the former Harvard star would sign his first pro contract, has dominated NHL headlines for weeks seemingly. With time having run out on Buffalo’s window of exclusivity to get the young forward under contract, any other club interested in bringing Vesey into the fold can officially begin negotiating with his representation as of 12:01am today. Even though it’s been reported Vesey will likely not sign until later this week, Pro Hockey Rumors will continue to monitor the latest news today using this post with updates appearing at the top of this post.

According to Mark Divver of The Providence Journal, Vesey is set to meet with the Isles, Penguins, Leafs and Devils today. While it was expected that essentially every NHL club would express at least some interest in adding Vesey to their ranks, the Penguins have rarely been listed among the top suitors up to this point. But the opportunity to play with two of the world’s best players – Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin – and for a team fresh off a Stanley Cup win has to be enticing so it shouldn’t be much of a surprise Vesey would at least meet with the Pittsburgh contingent as he weighs his options.

It’s likely that Vesey and his reps will also take meetings with other teams throughout the week before making his decision. Chicago has often been listed as a potential front-runner in the sweepstakes and Boston is Vesey’s hometown team so expect both of those clubs to also get a shot to woo him in person.

 

 

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