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RFAs Still Waiting On Contracts

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After a busy few days watching free agent contracts be handed out like candy, and millions of dollars spent like pennies, there are still some key restricted free agents out there negotiating their next contracts.  Vincent Trocheck, Filip Forsberg and Seth Jones have already received deals eclipsing $25MM, locking them in long before they even get a sniff of unrestricted free agency.  Here are a few more names still waiting on deals:

For the entire list of RFA players, and the projected depth charts for each team head to Roster Resource and check out their detailed info.

The Signing Bonus: Rise Of The Buyout-Proof Contract

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The life of an NHL agent is tough. As the league continues to tweak (or totally overhaul) their CBA each few seasons, changing contract regulations and offering teams different ways of structuring deals, agents are always trying to find ways to circumvent them and get the best offers for their clients.

With teams becoming more and more willing to use buyouts to rid themselves of the horrible contracts that they sign on July 1st – famously a day of simultaneous excitement and regret – agents around the league needed to find a way to protect their clients from losing out on a third (or sometimes two-thirds) of the salary the sides agreed on.

The most recent buyout window, which lasted from June 15th to 30th, saw a dozen NHL players bought out, including household names like Thomas Vanek and Dennis Seidenberg. While some fans may see this as an opportunity for a player to earn two contracts at the same time – Vanek was signed on by Detroit for $2.6MM on July 1st, more than the $1.5MM he surrendered in his buyout – most take it as a personal slight, an indictment of their play or character. Regardless, agents continue to try and secure guarantees for their clients, instead of leaving the power in the hands of the league’s general managers.

Enter the signing bonus, this summer’s contract-du-jour. All across the league, big name free agents have inked deals that will see them paid almost entirely in signing bonuses, with very little actual salary being given out each season.  Take Loui Eriksson for instance:

2016-17 – Salary: $1MM, Bonus: $7MM
2017-18 – Salary: $1MM, Bonus: $7MM
2018-19 – Salary: $1MM, Bonus: $6MM
2019-20 – Salary: $1MM, Bonus: $4MM
2020-21 – Salary: $1MM, Bonus: $3MM
2021-22 – Salary: $3MM, Bonus: $1MM

While Eriksson’s cap-hit sits at $6MM per year, he’ll make more than that in bonuses alone each of the next three seasons. There are a couple of reasons why this would benefit the player.

For one, everyone loves getting a big check rather than a weekly salary – who would turn down a piece of paper with six zeros?  As any economist will tell you, money in hand is worth more than money promised to come, and just as teams in other sports are deferring payments for this reason long into the future, having money up front is actually more valuable for the player in question.

It’s in the buyout rules that the contract really holds value though, as – hinted at by the title – these contracts are basically buyout-proof.  Under the current CBA, buyouts are calculated by taking two-thirds of the remaining salary owed, not including signing bonuses, and spreading it out over twice the remaining contract length. The new cap hit is determined by subtracting the savings from the average annual value of the deal which includes signing bonuses.

This means that if the Canucks were to want to buy out Eriksson after say, the third year of his new deal, they’ll only be saving $333K of cap hit in 2020-21, an insignificant portion of the $6MM number. That last season of $3MM is a bit better for the Canucks (they would save $2MM of his cap hit), but structuring it this way almost guarantees that Eriksson will collect at least $35MM of his deal – more than 97%. It’s just not worth it to buy him out any sooner than his final year.

Andrew Ladd, Milan Lucic, Kyle Okposo all signed deals heavily impacted by signing bonuses, protecting them against a buyout through all but the very end of their agreements.  Even Matt Martin, a career fourth liner secured a $10MM deal that is 65% bonus.  He’ll only be collecting $750K in salary in years three and four of the deal.

While this doesn’t necessarily mean trouble for clubs around the league, you can bet the owners and NHLPA will take a look at it when negotiations begin on the new CBA.  The current agreement expires in 2022, though the two sides have the option to end it a year earlier.

Just as the league has used cap recapture and contract limits to close loopholes in the past, be sure that if they want to continue to have the option to buyout bad contracts they’ll remove this option from the equation.  Creating a rule that would make signing bonuses only be able to hit a certain percentage of each season’s salary would be the easy fix, but expect push-back from the NHLPA.

Even if they do end up closing it, agents will work on another way to get their clients the best possible guarantee; they always seem to be one step ahead of the league.

Panthers Extend Reilly Smith For Five Years

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Clearly the biggest players in free agency this year, the Florida Panthers are close to another move to lock up their young core. Gary Lawless of TSN was first to report that the team was close to an extension with forward Reilly Smith that would pay him $5MM a season for an additional five years.  The team has since confirmed the length of the deal, though not the financial details.

In just the past few weeks, the team has traded for then signed Keith Yandle, dealt away Dmitry Kulikov, given extensions to Aaron Ekblad and Vincent Trocheck, signed free agents Jason Demers and James Reimer, and pretty much owned the hockey world.

Smith, 25, had an excellent season last year with the Panthers, scoring 25 goals and 50 points. The former third round pick has had quite a start to his career, putting up at least 40 points in each of his first three full seasons. The talented young winger came over to Florida in the deal that saw them take on Marc Savard’s cap-hit from the Bruins, one that they recently dealt to New Jersey for some cap relief of their own.

The Panthers have been on quite a clear path lately, trying to push past the first round of the playoffs for the first time since 1996, the year they lost in the Cup finals to Colorado. After being knocked out by the New York Islanders last season, the team has made clear upgrades to their defensive group, and should have one of the better top pairings in the league with Ekblad and Yandle signed long-term.

Smith is still under contract for next season at a $3.43MM cap hit, meaning that a five-year extension would take him through the 2021-22 season.  Perhaps not coincidentally, that is also when Trocheck and Aleksander Barkov will hit free agency, giving the team a chance to re-tool if they need to at that point.

If the financials are true, it would mean the Panthers have four young forwards under contract long-term for less than $6MM apiece in Barkov, Trocheck, Smith and Nick Bjugstad. All 25 or under, that quartet scored 93 goals last season. Next on the to-do list would be Jonathan Huberdeau, the former third overall pick who put up 20 goals of his own last season.  He’s due $3.25MM next year before becoming an arbitration-eligible RFA next summer.

New York Rangers Sign Michael Grabner, Nathan Gerbe

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According to the team, the New York Rangers have agreed to terms with free agent forward Michael Grabner.  Elliotte Friedman reports that the deal is worth $1.65MM per season for the former Islander and Maple Leaf.

The team has also announced that they’ve signed Nathan Gerbe, after playing last season in Carolina. Darren Dreger gives us the breakdown: it’s a one-year deal worth $600K.

Grabner, 28, played last season with Toronto after coming over in a trade last summer. Often suiting up on the top-line alongside Nazem Kadri, the former 30-goal man continued to prove that his offensive days are behind him. Only scoring nine goals and 18 points, his biggest contribution was on the penalty kill, where his speed and agility still offer big upside.

In New York, he won’t be asked for much more than that, slotting into the bottom six behind a crop of young forwards. Mats Zuccarello, and Jesper Fast project to skate on the right side of the top two lines, but Grabner will provide at least some depth at the position if J.T. Miller continues to be deployed down the middle.

Gerbe, one of the smallest players to ever play in the NHL at 5’5″, returns to the state he made his debut in. After being drafted by the Sabres in 2005, Gerbe put up 16 goals and 31 points in his first full season with the club. While he didn’t have a very productive 2015-16, he still adds a lot of energy and speed to the bottom six.

Victor Hedman Signs Eight-Year Extension With Tampa Bay

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The turning of the calendar into July also means that players under contract for just one more season can officially negotiate contract extensions.  We already saw it with Jake Allen earlier today, and now the top 2017 UFA defenseman is off the board.

Victor Hedman has re-signed with Tampa Bay for eight seasons, according to Chris Johnston of Sportsnet. The 25-year old will earn $7.875MM annually, starting in 2017-18.

For the Lightning, this is the second huge contract extension of the last few days, following the Steven Stamkos deal on Wednesday afternoon. They have now guaranteed that their two best players will be playing with each other until 2023. With both players under contract for less than $17MM combined, GM Steve Yzerman has set up his club for long term success.

In Hedman, the Lightning are re-signing one of the best defensmen in the league.  Since going second overall in the 2009 draft, Hedman has been a mainstay on the blueline, logging over 20 minutes a night since he was 19. The last few years have seen an increase in offensive production as well, with his point totals climbing to 55, 38, 47 in the past three seasons.

Generally regarded as an elite possession defenseman, Hedman is still only 25 and is probably going to continue to improve. There may be Norris trophies in the future for this Swede, as he follows in countryman Nicklas Lidstrom’s footsteps as a positionally sound, physical-when-he-needs-to-be shutdown defenseman.

Free Agent Profile: Frans Nielsen

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When you talk about free agents from Long Island this offseason, the conversation immediately goes to Kyle Okposo, the 28-year old winger who tied Steven Stamkos in points last season, or to Matt Martin, the bang-and-crash bottom six guy who everyone seems to want to add. Mostly forgotten, there is another UFA coming out of New York who should be commanding some attention.

Frans Nielsen has always been overlooked, perhaps because of his slender frame, or his Danish heritage – Denmark isn’t known for a flood of NHL players, though there have been some excellent ones – starting on draft day when he was selected deep into the third round. Nielsen has never earned more than $2.75MM in a single season, choosing to re-sign with the team who drafted him well before he became an unrestricted free agent in 2012.

He shouldn’t be overlooked any longer, as the 32-year old has put together an excellent career and comes into this offseason as a top-5 free agent, now that Stamkos and Yandle have both signed.

Potential Suitors

With, perhaps fittingly, almost no news coming out about Nielsen speaking with teams other than the Islanders, it’s a bit of a mystery where the Dane will finally end up.  There are however a few teams who seem to fit with his ability and position perfectly.

In our UFA piece we had Nielsen going to the Red Wings, and after Stamkos re-signed this afternoon that seems even more a possibility.  The club already has a young, up and coming center in Dylan Larkin who may be ready for the top line as soon as next season, so may not want to commit to the long-term deal that the other top option, David Backes, is surely to command.

While the Minnesota Wild have a young group of forwards who have shown the ability to play in the top six, they’ve also experimented with both Charlie Coyle and Mikael Granlund on the wing. If they think they’re more suited there, Nielsen makes a good choice as a steady veteran to put between them on the second line.

Expected Contract

Nielsen will be overlooked no more, as he hits this summer looking for one last big deal to finish his career on. If Backes goes early and the rest of the league views him as the next best option down the middle (which they should), he’ll look for a four or five year deal somewhere between $4.5 and $5MM per season.  If he settles for a shorter term, he might be able to push just above that $5MM mark, but it would be very surprising to see him get close to $6MM.

Free Agent Profile: Kyle Okposo

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Though Steven Stamkos has been dominating the free agent headlines as we inch closer to Friday’s deadline, there’s another player who some teams might value quite highly. Kyle Okposo has been a hugely productive player the last few years, ranking 17th in PPG since 2013-14. Last season he put up 64 points, tying him with Stamkos for the lead among the unrestricted class, and only turned 28 this April.

A three-time twenty goal scorer, Okposo now has 369 points in 529 career games and usually graded out as a positive possession player. The caveat though is that he’s spent a lot of time on the wing of New York superstar John Tavares, and his stats may be inflated because of it.

Potential Suitors

Despite the potential Tavares-shaped red flag, Okposo is sure to get interest from at least a dozen teams this offseason.  His combination of youth, offensive performance and an increasingly physical style will make teams salivate as they imagine installing him on their top line. 60-point wingers don’t grow on trees, and as Arthur Staple of Newsday reports there are already a handful of teams calling for him.

If the rumors are true, the LA Kings do seem like a natural fit for the winger as they’ll be losing both Milan Lucic and Kris Versteeg this summer. Though Okposo plays the right side, and Lucic the left, the offense would be a welcome addition to a team looking to make it back to the playoffs.  Perhaps playing along excellent centers in Anze Kopitar or Jeff Carter would hide some of the regression many believe to be coming.

Detroit also seems like a good fit, as though they are deep on the left side with Tomas Tatar, Justin Abdelkader and Henrik Zetterberg (when he’s not playing in the middle) they have only Gustav Nyquist as a proven top-six guy on the right side. Okposo would be a great consolation prize if they can’t land Stamkos, as the team heads into a new era without Pavel Datsyuk.

Expected Contract

In our Top 50 List we had Okposo receiving a seven-year, $47.25MM deal from the Sabres, giving him an annual salary of $6.75MM. As GM Tim Murray has recently been quoted saying he’s going to go after the “big fish” this summer, perhaps it’s not out of the question that Okposo would land there. Either way, expect him to sign a deal for at least six years, and upwards of $40MM. The Minnesota native may in fact crack $7MM per season, something that only 28 skaters currently do.

If the last few seasons are his true talent, perhaps he’ll be looking to be paid even higher than that, as players like Corey Perry, Phil Kessel and Jonathan Toews all earn a substantial amount more, while providing less offensive production (on a per game basis) the last three years. While it would be hard to see anyone rank him ahead of these players overall, perhaps that’s just a symptom of riding under Tavares’ shadow and in the less-covered portion of New York sports.

Snapshots: Blackhawks, Lightning, Vanek, Higgins

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The Blackhawks may no longer be in salary cap hell, but they are certainly thinner up front writes the Chicago Sun-Times Mark Lazerus. With Andrew Shaw being dealt to Montreal, both Bryan Bickell and Teuvo Teravainen off to Carolina, and Andrew Ladd hitting free agency, the Hawks have a number of open spots to shore up. While Chicago can now collectively breathe under the repressive Cap that has had them selling off parts since the summer of 2010, the casualties have come in the way of losing skill players. Lazerus has the Blackhawks possibly bringing back Brian Campbell, who could carry a $2MM/yr cap hit. Meanwhile, the bottom six forwards would look very different than the pedigree most Hawks fans are accustomed to. Lazerus lists Dale Weise and Tomas Fleischmann as potential candidates to return, while naming P.A. Parenteau or Sam Gagner as possible options to add in free agency.

In other league news:

  • The Lightning have tendered qualifying offers to Yanni Gourde, Kristers Gudlevskis, Alex Killorn, Nikita Kucherov, Tye McGinn, Vladislav Namestnikov, and Nikita Nesterov tweets Erik Eriendsson. In the meantime, general manager Steve Yzerman has a number of decisions to make as the free agency window opens on Friday. Steven Stamkos is still the top priority as teams are lining up to make their pitch. But the equally intriguing angle is what to do with goaltender Ben Bishop. Entering the final year of a contract with a $5.95MM cap hit, Bishop was reportedly working on contract specifics after the Flames were given permission to do so. That was scrapped as soon as the Flames acquired Brian Elliott from the Blues.
  • Jason Brough reports that both the Canucks and Rangers may have interest in free agent Thomas Vanek. Though Vanek would be a backup plan to the higher tier free agents, namely Milan Lucic and Loui Eriksson, he could be a decent pickup at a reasonable price for both teams seeking scoring help. Vanek had 41 points (18-23) and will see a much lower offer than the three-year/$19.5MM offer he received from Minnesota, who bought him out last week.
  • Elliotte Friedman tweets that Canucks winger Chris Higgins was placed on waivers for the purposes of being bought out. According to CapFriendly, the cap hit would be $833,333 through the 2017-18 season. CBS Sports listed Higgins as one of their buyout candidates, and the Vancouver Sun reported the Canucks actively shopping Higgins back in January. Higgins had 4 points (3-1) in 33 games last season.

Free Agent Focus: Vancouver Canucks

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When the Vancouver Canucks entered the 2015-16 season, they were coming off a 101-point season and felt as though they had another strong shot at the playoffs, with Daniel and Henrik Sedin still in the mix and up-and-coming center Bo Horvat showing he was ready for a larger NHL role.  What they got instead, was a disastrous season filled with injury and ineffectiveness, leading to a 31-38-13 record and finished ahead of only the Toronto Maple Leafs and Edmonton Oilers in league standings. This summer they’ve already started their re-tool, trading 20-year old Jared McCann to Florida for former third overall pick Erik Gudbranson. Here’s a look at what else they have to do this summer:

Key Restricted Free Agent: W Emerson Etem – After a deal that saw Etem move across the continent (for the second time), the former Ranger got into 39 games down the stretch for the Canucks.  A prolific scorer in junior – who tallied 143 goals in three seasons for the Medicine Hat Tigers, including a 61 goal effort in 2011-12 – Etem hasn’t been able to find much consistency in the NHL.

Now six years removed from being draft in the first round (29th overall), Etem has to show that he can be the offensive force he was once seen as.  Perhaps it will help that Canucks’ coach Willie Dejardins was Etem’s coach in Medicine Hat for two seasons before being hired on with the Dallas Stars.

He’s coming off a one-year deal worth $850,500 and shouldn’t cost much more than $1MM in his first season of arbitration eligibility.  With the other young forwards Horvat, Sven Baertschi and Jake Virtanen, Etem could be a long-term piece for the Canucks if he can ever reclaim that scoring touch.

Other RFAs: F Linden Vey, F Michael Zalewski, D Andrey Pedan

Key Unrestricted Free Agents: RW Radim Vrbata – While the Canucks struggle through the last few years of their now 35-year old franchise twins, another veteran is hitting the open market after a terrible season.  Vrbata seemed to have found the fountain of youth in 2014-15 after signing a two-year pact with the Canucks; he put up a career-high 63 points and broke the 30 goal mark for the second time.

This season, he lit the lamp only 13 times and collected just 27 points – his lowest mark since 2008 when he played just 18 games before heading back to his native Czech Republic to be with his pregnant wife. He’ll hit the open market as a 35-year old coming off his worst year and will probably have to settle for a one-year deal somewhere; it almost surely won’t be in Vancouver.  Vrbata was ranked 27 on our list of the top 50 free agents available this year.

D Dan Hamhuis – After another injury shortened season (this time from a gruesome slapshot to the face), Hamhuis is hitting free agency as somewhat of a risk, given his age and durability issues. While those issues may be somewhat overblown, Hamhuis isn’t going to get the big money deal he did a few years ago.

Even so, he is a strong shutdown defender when healthy and there are many teams who would love to have him in their top-4. If Hamhuis decides to take his talents elsewhere, he’ll try to catch on with a team with deep playoff aspirations as the 33-year old has only progressed past the first round once in his twelve year career.

Other UFAs: LW Ronalds Kenins, D Yannick Weber, D Matt Bartkowski

Projected Cap Room: $9.2MM, 21 players under contract.

The Canucks will continue their tear-down as they wait out the last few Sedin seasons, and look for progression from their young players. If they do sign any free agents, it would have to either be young players or cheap veterans that they’d look to deal closer to the next deadline.

We predicted them to sign both Lee Stempniak and Matt Martin, but look at other players like Sam Gagner or John-Michael Liles that fit in one of those two categories. It should be another long season for Canuck fans.

Top Draft Prospects: Mikhail Sergachev

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With the first round of the 2016 NHL Entry Draft just two days away, we look at the top prospects available Friday night.  Previously we took a look at Auston Matthews,Patrik Laine, Jesse Puljujarvi, Matthew Tkachuk and Pierre-Luc Dubois; next we’ll examine our first defenceman, Mikhail Sergachev.

Bio

Position: Defence
Birthdate: June 25, 1998
Hometown: Nizhnekamsk, Russia
Height: 6’2”
Weight: 220 lbs

2015-16

After coming over from his native Russia to play in the OHL, Sergachev actually struggled in the first half, having trouble adjusting to his new surroundings. When he found that comfort level however, his play took off. Racking up 57 points in 67 games, Sergachev won the OHL’s award for top defenceman, only the second rookie in league history to do so (Bryan Berard in 1995).

The Spitfires ran into a strong Kitchener Rangers team in the playoffs and went down in five games, while Sergachev tallied five points. He was held scoreless in the Under-18s, as Russia went down to the eventual champion Finnish team in the first elimination round.

Statistics

Windsor Spitfires: 67 GP, 17 goals, 40 assists, 57 points, 56 PIM, +15 rating
OHL Playoffs: 5 GP, 2 goals, 3 assists, 5 points, 8 PIM, -4 rating
U-18 WJC: 5 GP, 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points, 8 PIM, 0 rating

Scouting Report

A beautiful skater, Sergachev glides around the ice with ease and transitions well from the offensive and defensive zones. He doesn’t get rattled with the puck on his stick in his own end, calmly moving it out of the zone and avoiding danger. With a well developed body, he uses it to it’s full advantage leveraging players off the puck or pinning them against the boards.

While his even-strength game is effective, it’s his point play when a man up that leaves scouts drooling. Sergachev is the prototypical quarterback, with slick passing skills and a booming slapshot from the blue line. He seems unbelievably calm out there despite his young age.

Sergachev normally looks like one of the best players on the ice, however some scouts have found that every now and again he seems a bit disinterested in the game and has been known to take a shift off.  Now, this might be a problem going forward or it might just be that the OHL level isn’t providing a big enough challenge for him currently. If he’s to unlock what seems like endless potential in both ends of the ice, he has to improve his consistency and continue to play with his physical edge. As players get bigger, better and more experienced, he won’t be able to coast on his natural talent.

Projected Future Role

Top-pairing defenceman/Powerplay threat.

NHL Timeline

Sergachev is another young draftee, not turning 18 until Saturday, and isn’t eligible for the AHL next season (or the one after that). With the choice of the NHL or OHL, he’ll probably be headed back to the Spitfires next year, however there is a possibility with the right team and a strong summer he could break camp as an 18-year old rookie in 2016-17.  Some clubs may fear he’ll take a step back even in just his second OHL season, if they believe he was already throwing away shifts because of disinterest this year.

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