Why Tampa Bay’s Defense Will Look Much Different Next Season
While recency bias has hockey fans looking back on the Tampa Bay Lightning’s season as a failure due to their shocking early playoff exit, in reality the team was historically good, winning 62 games en route to 128 points and an easy President’s Trophy win. In general, most teams who enjoy that level of success would look to change as little as possible, even with the postseason disappointment. Last year’s Stanley Cup-winning Washington Capitals have become the standard for staying the course and, by all accounts, the Lightning expect to follow in their footsteps and avoid the temptation to make sweeping changes.
However, it’s not that simple. As Joe Smith of The Athletic writes, the Bolts will have to undergo a major makeover on their blue line. Tampa Bay is already committed to over $73MM for 16 players next season. That list includes top defensemen Victor Hedman and Ryan McDonagh, as well as most core forwards like Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos, Ondrej Palat, Tyler Johnson, J.T. Miller, and Yanni Gourde and starting goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy. However, it does not include half of the eight defensemen used regularly by the Lightning this season: Anton Stralman, Braydon Coburn, Dan Girardi, and Jan Rutta. More importantly, it also doesn’t include sophomore breakout forward Brayden Point. Even with the salary cap expected to climb north of $80MM this off-season, re-signing Point will eat up most of that space and extending fellow RFA forwards Cedric Paquette and Adam Erne will add up as well. Without a considerable cap dump, it would seem re-signing even one of those UFA defensemen, nevertheless most of them, will be incredibly difficult.
So what does Tampa do about this situation? The aforementioned cap dump seems a near certainty, as veteran forward Ryan Callahan is expected to be traded or bought out this summer. A buy out could give the Lightning the wiggle room to re-sign one of the four pending UFA’s, while a trade could either open up cap space or allow the team to bring in a blue liner with a bad contract like Callahan’s. Yet, Callahan alone is not the only move that the Bolts could make before next season. Smith mentions Miller as the easiest forward to trade away, as his trade protection does not kick in until the new league year on July 1st. Johnson, Palat, and Alex Killorn all have full or limited No-Trade Clauses, making them harder to deal, but still expendable regardless. In moving any of those four valuable forwards – or even Point if negotiations reach an impasse – the Bolts would likely be able to land a talented defenseman in return.
Outside of Callahan though, the Lightning do not have to make other trades to form a capable defense. Internally, they already have a promising top-four in veteran stars Hedman and McDonagh and promising young rearguards Mikhail Sergachev and Erik Cernak. AHL standout Cal Foote will also challenge for a job in camp, while the team will almost certainly target a defenseman with the 27th overall pick in the first round this year, who could push for an NHL spot right away if they’re lucky. Moving Callahan, if salary does not come back in return, could enable the team to re-sign Rutta, likely the cheapest option of the four, or perhaps Coburn or Girardi on hometown discounts. It is hard to imagine Stralman being within their price range or any two returning. Yet, affordable options will also exist on the free agent market, as many players may be willing to sign for less for a shot at the Cup in Tampa Bay. Veteran UFA options who could come in under $2MM or so include Michael Del Zotto, Adam McQuaid, Ben Lovejoy, and Roman Polak, among others.
The only certainty when it comes to Tampa’s defense this season is that it will not look the same as it did last year. There is simply no financial way for the team to maintain the depth and balance on the blue line that this unit had, but some savvy moves this off-season could still keep the defense just as strong. How the team handles Point, Callahan, and the free agency and trade markets will be one of the more intriguing story lines this summer and could dictate whether the Bolts are able to follow the Capitals’ model and stay the course toward a championship following postseason disappointment.
Atlantic Notes: Callahan, Yzerman, Borgstrom
With cap problems fast approaching and plenty of extensions kicking in (as well as the contract of RFA Brayden Point to worry about), the Tampa Bay Lightning will have lots to worry about. Even with the expiring contracts of Braydon Coburn ($3.7MM), Dan Girardi ($3MM), Jan Rutta ($2.2MM) and Anton Stralman ($4.5MM), most of that money will go towards the new extensions for Nikita Kucherov, Yanni Gourde and Ryan McDonagh, which will likely force the team to find other ways to save money.
One contract that the Lightning will likely try to get rid of will be that of forward Ryan Callahan, who still has one year remaining on his contract at $5.8MM. The 34-year-old forward only appeared in 52 games this year and while injuries have been part of the problem, Callahan has also found himself a healthy scratch often this year, especially after the all-star break, as his skills seem to be on a decline. Diana Nearhos of the Tampa Bay Times suggests that the team might attempt to trade him off, despite having a modified no-trade clause. The team would almost have to retain some of his salary to make a deal work, but there is also a legitimate chance they will buy the veteran out.
- In an interview with Detroit Red Wings new general manager Steve Yzerman, The Athletic’s Craig Custance (subscription required) asked multiple questions about the team’s sixth-overall pick in the upcoming 2019 NHL draft. When asked about Russian winger Vasili Podkolzin, whose draft stock seems to be dropping due to signability issues, Yzerman made it clear that he wasn’t worried about that and wouldn’t be scared to draft him. “It hasn’t in the past,” said Yzerman. “The really good Russian players all come over. Maybe they wait a year, two years, but eventually you get them. (Evgeny) Kuznetsov, (Vladimir) Tarasenko, (Andrei) Vasilevskiy. (Nikita) Kucherov waited a year. The really good ones are coming over. You have to be prepared, potentially, to wait. I don’t really know what his contract status is.”
- The Athletic’s George Richards (subscription required) writes that this offseason will be a big one for Florida Panthers forward Henrik Borgstrom. The 21-year-old struggled this season in his transition to the NHL, scoring eight goals and 18 points in 50 games. One of new head coach Joel Quenneville‘s new responsibility is to get the most out of Borgstrom, who will likely be expected to shift to the center position and be the odds-on favorite to take over the third-line position. “I definitely want it,” Borgstrom said. “That’s the spot I want to take, and it is up to me to take it. I feel like I have to be ready for it, work hard for it. Hopefully, when the time training camp comes, I will be totally ready to take it.”
2019 Hart Trophy Finalists Announced
The finalists for the Hart Trophy, given to the player most valuable to his team, have been announced. Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports that the three finalists are Pittsburgh Penguins’ Sidney Crosby, Tampa Bay Lightning’s Nikita Kucherov and Edmonton Oilers’ Connor McDavid.
Kucherov is considered to be a favorite for the award after putting up a tremendous year. The 25-year-old took his game to another level as he has already captured this year’s Art Ross Trophy for leading the league in total points. He finished the year with 41 goals and 128 points, the most in the league since the 1995-96 season. His totals are also the most-ever by a Russian-born NHL player. Kucherov has also been nominated for the Ted Lindsay Award, awarded to the most outstanding player and voted on by the players. Kucherov led his team to the Presidents’ Trophy, given to the team with the best regular-season record.
Crosby had an impressive season as well. Often forgotten when talking about the league’s best players, Crosby helped lead the Penguins to the playoffs this year and did it by breaking the 100-point mark for the first time in five years. On top of that, he was 18-points better than any other players on his team, making his season quite valuable for a Pittsburgh franchise that struggled to get into the playoffs this season.
McDavid’s name is not surprising either, other than the fact that the Edmonton Oilers didn’t have a very impressive season and while they weren’t mathematically eliminated from the playoffs until late in the season, they were never truly considered to be a playoff threat this season. In fact, McDavid is just the sixth player in NHL history to be a Hart finalist from a non-playoff team. McDavid, however, who won the Hart Trophy in the 2016-17 season when he tallied 30 goals and 100 points, continues to improve on each season as he tallied 41 goals and 116 points to reach new career highs.
Several interesting players were left off the finalist list as well, including Washington Capitals’ Alex Ovechkin and Chicago Blackhawks’ Patrick Kane.
Blue Jackets Notes: Dzingel, Wennberg, Nutivaara, Nash
Ryan Dzingel may have wished that he signed a contract extension with the Ottawa Senators after all.
The winger opted against signing a contract extension before the trade deadline, which forced Ottawa to send him to the Columbus Blue Jackets instead. However, the 27-year-old hasn’t fared very well under head coach John Tortorella. He posted just 12 points in 21 games and has been scoreless in five playoff games. In Game 1 of Columbus’ second-round series against Boston, Dzingel only got 11:06 of ice time in an overtime game, the lowest among all forwards. That eventually prompted Tortorella to play Alexander Wennberg, who has long sat in Tortorella’s doghouse, in favor of Dzingel for Game 2, leading to what many believe was a healthy scratch, writes the Ottawa Sun’s Don Brennan.
While there was no confirmation that Dzingel was a healthy scratch, Brennan doubts that he is injured as he was one of the last players to leave the ice at the most recent optional skate. In fact Dzingel’s stock, which was quite high at the trade deadline, has dropped significantly and could have a major effect on his next contract. It is looking less and less that the speedy winger who played at Ohio State University will sign a long-term deal in Columbus next year and despite a 26-goal regular season, his suitors seem to be dropping.
- Speaking of Wennberg, the center, who had been a healthy scratch for seven straight games, fared quite well on the ice Saturday, playing 16:11 on the third line with Alexandre Texier and Oliver Bjorkstrand, according to NHL.com’s Jeff Svoboda. Wennberg could have proven that he belongs back in the lineup permanently as the center was crucial on the penalty kill that held the Bruins to just one goal on four chances.”The kill did a really good job,” Wennberg said. “Personally, it was good to be back out there. I tried to make good reads and have a good stick. It’s good to be out there.”
- In the same article, Svoboda reports that defenseman Markus Nutivaara could be close to returning to the lineup. While Tortorella won’t talk about lineup changes, Nutivaara skated with the team during an optional practice before Game 2 on Saturday and while he didn’t play Saturday, he could be ready to return to the lineup shortly. Nutivaara suffered an undisclosed injury in Game 2 of their series with Tampa Bay after being boarded by Nikita Kucherov and suspended for a game.
- Riley Nash, who took an explosive hit from former teammate Zdeno Chara in the first period of Saturday’s game, seems to be OK, according to The Athletic’s Aaron Portzline. Nash looked shaken up, but was back on the ice not long after the hit. “That was a big hit,” Tortorella said. “It took him a few minutes on the bench, and next thing you know, he’s ready to go. He played a really good game, too, probably one of our most patient guys with the puck, especially on the wall play of our end zone.”
Poll: Who Is The Stanley Cup Favorite Now?
If you had asked a crowd of hockey fans before the playoffs began to put down a bet on who would win the Stanley Cup, there would likely have been one resounding favorite. The Tampa Bay Lightning had just completed a historic 62-win season and had everything you would want in a team. Top scorers, including potential Hart Trophy winner Nikita Kucherov who led the league with 128 points this season. Shutdown defenders like Victor Hedman and Ryan McDonagh, both playoff-tested from years of postseason play. One of the best goaltenders in the world in Andrei Vasilevskiy, a Vezina finalist for the second consecutive season.
None of that mattered though, after the Columbus Blue Jackets erased a 3-0 first period lead in game one and never looked back. Tampa Bay was swept out of the first round, and weren’t the only favorite to be overcome. All four division leaders were knocked out this season, the first time that has happened in the history of the NHL. The Calgary Flames (107 points), Washington Capitals (104) and Nashville Predators (100) all saw their playoff run end early. Even other 100-point teams like the Toronto Maple Leafs and Pittsburgh Penguins were ousted, though this time by even better regular season teams that were forced to face higher seeds than in playoff formats of the past.
The second round started last night, with the Boston Bruins and St. Louis Blues taking early series leads. Are they now the default favorites to go all the way? What about the upstart wild card teams like the Colorado Avalanche and Carolina Hurricanes who have more young talent than they know what to do with?
If that same crowd were asked today to name a favorite, it might not be as easy. Cast your vote below and make sure to leave your thoughts in the comment section!
[Mobile users click here to vote!]
NHLPA Announces Ted Lindsay Award Finalists
The National Hockey League Players’ Association has named the three players up for their most prestigious honor. The Ted Lindsay Award is presented each year to the “most outstanding player in the NHL”. Unlike the Hart Trophy though, the Ted Lindsay is voted on by the candidates’ peers themselves, the NHLPA’s member players. This year, the three named as finalists are the Chicago Blackhawks’ Patrick Kane, the Tampa Bay Lightning’s Nikita Kucherov, and the Edmonton Oilers’ Connor McDavid.
McDavid is no stranger to the Ted Lindsay; the Oilers’ superstar has won the award in each of the past two seasons. Generally, the players put less stock into team success than do voters for the Hart, making McDavid an easy choice despite Edmonton’s struggles. The last player to win the award before McDavid was none other than Kane, who took home the honor in 2015-16. Not only has Kucherov never won the award, he is a first-time finalist.
Yet, Kucherov would seem to be the favorite to receive the title this year. Tampa’s top scorer led the league in scoring with 128 points, 12 more than McDavid and 18 more than Kane. He also finished first in assists and power play points by a wide margin, as well as among the league’s best in goals, plus/minus, and shots. Also, if team performance does come into play in voting, Kucherov’s Lightning had a record-setting regular season, winning the President’s Trophy with 128 points, 21 more than the next-best team. Kucherov seems to have on overwhelmingly strong case for the Ted Lindsay (and Hart), but the final result won’t be revealed until the NHL Awards on June 19th.
Snapshots: Hedman, Ferland, Hamilton, McKenna, Simmonds
It looks like the Tampa Bay Lightning will be without another key player Sunday. Already without the suspended Nikita Kucherov, NHL.com’s Bryan Burns reports that star defenseman Victor Hedman will miss Game 3 with an unknown injury.
Head coach Jon Cooper said earlier today that Hedman would be a game-time decision, but now Braydon Coburn is on the ice, taking Hedman’s place. Hedman has been playing injured in the first two games of the playoffs.
- There won’t be any supplementary discipline from Saturday’s Game 2 between the Washington Capitals and the Carolina Hurricanes despite a number of controversial hits. Carolina Hurricanes general manager Don Waddell said that neither Micheal Ferland or Dougie Hamilton will receive any attention from the Department of Player Safety, according to News & Observer’s Luke DeCock. Ferland gave a big hit to Washington’s Nic Dowd, but the angle looks like Ferland hit through Dowd’s body and did not aim for the head. Hamilton’s elbow to Washington’s Evgeny Kuznetsov was also heavily criticized, but it wasn’t believed that the elbow had enough force for supplementary discipline.
- Philadelphia Flyers goaltender Mike McKenna sent out a tweet Sunday, saying he would have a “humongous big announcement” coming on Monday. While there no confirmation what it is about, speculation has risen that McKenna might be ready to announce his retirement. AHLcom’s Tony Androckitis wrote that the 36-year-old McKenna was leaning towards ending his career Saturday night after the Lehigh Valley Phantoms ended their AHL season. “I’m pragmatically saying I’m not sure,” said McKenna. “It’s going to take an awful lot to convince me to play again I think. In terms of what I need to have happen for my family, more so than me.” McKenna, who could be considered an AHL-lifer, made 11 NHL appearances this season — 10 with Ottawa and another one with the Philadelphia Flyers. He’s made 35 NHL appearances over the course of his career.
- NHL.com’s Robby Stanley reports that Brian Boyle remains “ill” and is day-to-day for Monday’s Game 3 matchup with the Dallas Stars. Boyle missed Game 2 with the flu. The scribe adds that there still isn’t an update on the status of Wayne Simmonds. Simmonds left Saturday’s game after taking a puck to the knee. A update is expected on Monday.
Atlantic Notes: Hedman, Johansson, Debrusk, Krug
With the Tampa Bay Lightning in a “must-win” sitatuion being down 2-0 to the Columbus Blue Jackets and already without their best forward in Nikita Kucherov, the status of their top defenseman Victor Hedman is also up in the air. In fact, Tampa Bay Times reporter Bryan Burns reports that Hedman will be a game-time decision for Game 3 Sunday in Columbus, according to head coach Jon Cooper.
Hedman, who suffered an undisclosed injury at the end of the regular season and was again banged up after Game 2, did not take the ice this morning for the team’s optional skate. While he did play in the first two playoff games, Cooper said that Hedman hasn’t been able to play his usual physical style of game, which could be the reason why he’s questionable, according to The Athletic’s Joe Smith.
- The Boston Bruins won Saturday despite not having forward Marcus Johansson on hand. The trade-deadline acquisition was out with the flu. However, the team might be without him even longer as The Athletic’s Fluto Shinzawa reports that Johansson is still sick and will not be traveling with the team on their road trip to Toronto. That doesn’t mean he won’t eventually travel on his own and be present for Game 3 on Monday, but this illness has knocked out Johansson harder than the team initially thought.
- Bruins head coach Bruce Cassidy also announced that forward Jake Debrusk and defenseman Torey Krug are both “doing better” and are day-to-day. Debrusk was cross-checked in the head by Nazem Kadri late in the game, which is being looked at by the Department of Player Safety. Krug suffered a head injury (possible concussion) in Game 2 after taking a hit on the boards from Toronto’s Jake Muzzin. Connor Clifton is also day-to-day with an upper-body injury after a hit in Game 2.
Snapshots: Callahan, Makar, Hamilton, Johansson
With the loss of star forward and likely Hart Trophy winner Nikita Kucherov for Game 3 on Sunday due to a one-game suspension handed down today, The Athletic’s Joe Smith (subscription required) writes that the team will bring in veteran Ryan Callahan to fill in the roster spot for a team that both its games at home and now must rebound with a pair of away games in Columbus. Of course, other players will likely move up the team’s lineup with Callahan staying in the bottom six. Callahan has last played a week ago, but only played 4:13 in that game and has only played more than 13 minutes once in the last month.
- TSN’s Bob McKenzie suggests that the Colorado Avalanche may have a tougher decision on what it wants to do with NCAA star Cale Makar, who the team is rumored to be signing within the next 24 hours. McKenzie writes that if Makar signs a contract, he will automatically burn the first year of his entry-level deal. However, and possibly more important, McKenzie adds that if Makar plays even one playoff game this season, he would need to be protected in the Seattle expansion draft. If the team opted not to play him in the playoffs this year, he wouldn’t be available to be taken by Seattle.
- The Washington Post’s Isabelle Khurshudyan reports that she has heard from a source that Carolina Hurricanes defenseman Dougie Hamilton will hear from the Department of Player Safety Sunday after elbowing Washington Capitals forward Evgeny Kuznetsov during the second period.
- While many people were worried that Boston Bruins forward Marcus Johansson was hurt when he didn’t appear during warm-ups, the Bruins announced not long afterwards that the veteran forward was expected to miss Saturday’s game due to the flu. The 28-year-old trade deadline acquisition didn’t record a point in Game 1, but still played 16:20 of ice time for the Bruins. David Backes took Johansson’s spot.
Nikita Kucherov Suspended For One Game
12:10 PM: Kucherov has been suspended for one game, the Department of Player Safety announced (video link). He’ll be eligible to return for Game Four on Tuesday night.
8:02 AM: It hasn’t been a great start to Tampa Bay’s postseason as their 5-1 loss to Columbus on Friday night caused Lightning head coach Jon Cooper to call the situation a “five-alarm fire” as they now trail the best-of-seven series 2-0. Things could potentially get worse for the Presidents’ Trophy winners as winger Nikita Kucherov will have a disciplinary hearing today, the Department of Player Safety announced.
This comes from a boarding incident on Blue Jackets defenseman Markus Nuutivaara late in Friday’s game. Nutivaara was on his knees but Kucherov still lined him up with a big hit, receiving a minor for tripping, a major for boarding, and a game misconduct in the process.
Losing Kucherov for any period of time would be a huge blow to the Lightning. He led the league in scoring with 128 points (41-87-128) during the regular season, setting a new record for the most points by a Russian-born player in the process. While he has been held off the scoresheet through the first two games, he’s certainly capable of putting up points in a hurry. The series resumes on Sunday so a decision from the league will likely come quickly one way or the other.