What Your Team Is Thankful For: New York Islanders
As the holiday season approaches, PHR will look at what teams are thankful for as the season nears the quarter point of completion. There also might be a few things your team would like down the road. We take a look at what’s gone well in the first month and what could improve as the season rolls on. Yesterday, we examined the Colorado Avalanche.
What are the New York Islanders most thankful for?
A solid start to the 2017-18 season.
The Islanders, who are doing everything they can to prevent star John Tavares from leaving their team when he becomes an unrestricted free agent at the end of the year, have gotten off to a solid start and look poised to make the playoffs. The team is 12-7-2 coming into Friday and are currently third in the Metropolitan Division and fifth in the Eastern Conference. If they can continue their success, the team should have a solid chance to make the playoffs, something they failed to do last year when they were one of the worst teams in the league at this point a year ago. A second-straight failed playoff appearance wouldn’t look good to a player who should have numerous playoff teams pounding on his door in June.
Who are the New York Islanders most thankful for?
Their offense. The Islanders rank second in the league in goals scored as the team has managed to give a lot of help to Tavares. Linemates Josh Bailey and Anders Lee have thrived around Tavares to form one of the top lines in the NHL. Bailey has five goals and 21 assists so far this year, while Lee has 11 goals and 10 assists. Oh, Tavares is doing just fine as he’s second in the NHL behind Nikita Kucherov with 15 goals. Throw in others like Jordan Eberle (seven goals), Brock Nelson (six goals), and rookie Mathew Barzal (five goals) and offense isn’t really a problem. Even defenseman Nick Leddy is getting into the action. After starting with just two assists in the first nine games, he’s put up five goals and 10 assists in his last 12 games to put himself among the top scoring defensemen in the league.
What would the Islanders be most thankful for?
A long-term commitment from Tavares.
The entire franchise seems to be focused on locking up Tavares who has said he wants to wait before committing long-term to the franchise. While many believe Tavares is waiting to make sure the Islanders find a legitimate home at the Belmont Parks site, there is plenty of confusion and worry about what might happen to the franchise if the team fails to re-sign their star player. To make matters worse, there is no word when a decision might be final on whether the Islanders will find a new home. However, if the team can get that commitment from the veteran, perhaps the team can move forward and focus on other key areas in the future.
What should be on the Islanders Holiday Wish List?
More success from their youth. One thing the team always seems to have a lot of is young talent. While Barzal has five goals, he still has stretches of inconsistency and the team would like to see him develop more. Other players such as Joshua Ho-Sang has been up and down between New York and the Bridgeport Sound Tigers to find more consistency with his entire game. Young defenseman Ryan Pulock, who many felt might be able to supplant Travis Hamonic after he was traded, has struggled to get into games (11 games played, 10 healthy scratches) due to his struggles on defense. Anthony Beauvillier has just two goals in 17 games so far this season. The team must continue to develop their youth if they want long-term success.
Salary Cap Deep Dive: New York Islanders
Navigating the Salary Cap is probably one of the more important tasks for any general manager to have. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.
PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2017-18 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.
New York Islanders
Current Cap Hit: $72,015,833 (under the $75MM Upper Limit)
Entry-Level Contracts
F Anthony Beauvillier (Two years remaining, $894K)
D Ryan Pulock (One year remaining, $863K)
F Joshua Ho-Sang (Two years remaining, $863K)
F Mathew Barzal (Three years remaining, $863K)
Potential Bonuses
Pulock: $500K
Barzal: $400K
Beauvullier: $213K
Ho-Sang: $213K
The team had to be pleased with the first-year production from Beauvillier after he put up nine goals and 15 assists in 66 games. Granted, it could have been better, but for the former 2015 first-round pick who wasn’t even expected to make the team out of training camp last year, this was a solid start. He didn’t get off to much of a start early in the season, but by the end of the year, he put together a solid string of games along with linemates Ho-Sang and Lee. He will likely find himself on the team’s third line along with Ho-Sang to start the year.
Pulock, the team’s first-round pick in 2013, was one of the main reasons behind the offseason trade of Travis Hamonic. The talented defenseman was traded away for a first and two second-round picks with the idea of implementing Pulock into the team’s plans. Rumors are they intend to put Pulock onto the team’s power play and showcase his hard slapshot. He only played one game for New York last year and broke his foot after playing just 3:57 of ice time, but he showed off his skill with the AHL’s Bridgeport Sound Tigers, putting up 15 goals and 46 points in just 55 games.
Ho-Sang, the team’s first-round pick in 2014, only played 21 games last year for the Islanders, putting up four goals and six assists in that span. A full 82-game season should be able to demonstrate his long-term value to the franchise. Barzal still must make the team out of training camp, but is considered to be one of the top prospects in the game and should have every opportunity to win one of the center jobs, which is not a position of depth on the team. Barzal did see two games for the Islanders last year, but played most of the year for his junior team.
One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level
F John Tavares ($5.5MM, UFA)
G Jaroslav Halak ($4.5MM, UFA)
F Nikolai Kulemin ($4.19MM, UFA)
F Josh Bailey ($3.3MM, UFA)
D Calvin de Haan ($3.3MM, UFA)
F Brock Nelson ($2.5MM, RFA)
F Jason Chimera ($2.25MM, UFA)
D Thomas Hickey ($2.2MM, UFA)
D Dennis Seidenberg ($1.25MM, UFA)
F Shane Prince ($850K, RFA)
F Stephen Gionta ($650K, UFA)
D Scott Mayfield ($625K, RFA)
F Alan Quine ($613K, RFA)
Obviously, the team’s future seems to hinge on where Tavares’ contract situation ends up. The team has high hopes they can re-sign their star forward, who has scored 235 goals for the franchise over eight season and is just about to turn 27 years old. The team that has watched several of their top players walk away in past years need to lock him up or, at the very least, trade him off for some talent in return. Losing Tavares would likely set the team back significantly and could play a role on whether some of the other pending free agents will come back next year.
The team will be forced to decide what they want to do with some of their regulars, including Bailey, de Haan and Hickey. Bailey, a first-round pick from 2008, has been around for nine years and while he consistently averages between 10 and 15 goals, he hit a personal high in assists last season, picking up 43 to put together a big season while playing with Tavares on the first line. With the addition of Eberle who is expected to play with Tavares, the team will likely demote Bailey to the second or even possibly the third line, which could suggest the team may not mind if he moves on in one year.
De Haan has proven to be a solid top-four presence on the blueline, but after signing a one-year deal this offseason, setting up unrestricted free agency next year, the team may decide to move on from him at some point, while Hickey hasn’t worked his way into the team’s top four. So it may be that many of the pending free agents will be allowed to leave to free up cap space, including Kulemin, Chimera and Seidenberg, along with some of the others above. That could free up a lot of cap room.
The team also will likely allow Halak to walk unless the veteran goaltender can produce a bounce-back season. After a couple of respectable seasons for New York, the 32-year-old’s production took a hit as he posted a 2.80 GAA in 27 games and then was demoted to finish the season in the AHL. He is back, but no one is quite sure what to expect for the veteran.
Perhaps the most important free agent (besides Tavares) will end up being from restricted free agent Brock Nelson, who should be asking for a big raise after three 20-goal seasons. Their 2010 first-round pick had 20 goals and 25 assists for the team last year, a career-high.
New York Islanders Hope Youth Will Propel Them Forward
Regardless of the outcome of the John Tavares contract situation that the Islanders have to deal with over the next season, the Islanders remain a young, up-and-coming team. Many of their top players are 27 years old or younger, including Tavares, Josh Bailey, Anders Lee, Brock Nelson, Nick Leddy amongst others. Even 27-year-old trade acquisition Jordan Eberle fits the bill. With the team starting to hit its prime, the Islanders believe that this is the year to make the playoffs.
However, another bright spot is their incoming infusion of talent. There are several former first-round picks who are ready to make their mark this upcoming season, including center Mathew Barzal, winger Joshua Ho-Sang and defenseman Ryan Pulock. All three were recognized by The Hockey News in their Top 10 Calder Trophy Candidates for next season. The Islanders were the only team to have three prospect recognized, although none of them were among the top five candidates. Barzal was the top-rated Islander at No. 8. The others were honorable mentions.
Barzal, a 2015 first-round pick, returned to play in the Western Hockey League again last season, putting up 79 points in 41 games and finished out the year with two games for the Islanders. The 20 year old has a good chance to seize the second-line center position in training camp, but must show that he can handle the physical pressure of playing in the NHL.
Ho-Sang, a 2014 first-round pick, played 50 games last season for the AHL Bridgeport Sound Tigers, putting up 10 goals and 26 assists, but then was promoted for the Islanders’ final 21 games and he put up four goals and six assists in that span and almost helped them reach the playoffs. The 21-year-old wing is almost a lock to make the rotation next year and could have a big season.
Pulock, a 2o13 first-round pick, has played three full seasons in the AHL so far, but after two average seasons, the blueliner took that next step last year. His 15 goals and 31 assists almost doubled his previous point totals, which gives him a chance to make the defensive rotation next season, possibly even hopping into the team’s top four. He did play 15 games for the Islanders two years ago, but didn’t get called up the following year and only played one game for the Islanders last year.
Blackhawks Announce Qualifying Offers
With tomorrow’s 5:00 PM ET deadline fast approaching for teams to submit qualifying offers to their impending free agents, names are about to flood in over the next 24 hours. Most RFA’s of any value are usually qualified and their teams retain sole control over their rights, while all others become unrestricted free agents. Each year, there are always some surprises though. Some names, like the New York Rangers’ Brandon Pirri, Adam Clendening, and Mackenzie Skapski, have already been leaked over the past few weeks as not being qualified. On the other hand, all RFA’s who were protected in the Expansion Draft had to first be extended a qualifying offer. That still leaves a long list of players to be determined tomorrow.
Count the Chicago Blackhawks as one team that won’t be scrambling tomorrow. Chicago has already made public which of their restricted free agents were and were not qualified. Among those whose negotiation rights the Blackhawks will retain are forwards Dennis Rasmussen and Tomas Jurco and defensemen Ville Pokka and Erik Gustafsson. Who is headed for unrestricted free agency? Forwards Michael Latta and Kenton Helgesen and defenseman Nolan Valleau. There is no official word, but it is overwhelmingly likely that the Blackhawks will qualify recently-acquired goalie Anton Forsberg, who GM Stan Bowman called the team’s 2017-18 backup at the draft this weekend.
There isn’t much surprise to Bowman’s decisions regarding his RFA’s. The 26-year-old Rasmussen has been a key bottom-six forward for the Blackhawks, skating in 112 games and recording 17 points while serving an important role as a defensive forward and penalty kill contributor. His qualifying offer was just $650K, the 2017-18 league minimum and well worth the services of a good, young two-way forward. Jurco, still just 24, made his NHL debut with the Red Wings back in 2013 and was an “up-and-coming prospect” in Detroit for a long time. It cost the Blackhawks a third-round pick to pry him from the Red Wings and they’ll look to make up for that loss by developing a player with undeniable talent who hasn’t been able to put it all together. Even though he’ll likely cost the cap-strapped ‘Hawks $1MM or more per year, expect a deal to get done. Pokka, while he has not yet made his NHL debut, has been the top blue liner for the AHL’s Rockford Ice Hogs for two years now and will certainly get his shot in the coming season for a weakened Chicago defense. One of the main pieces in the Nick Leddy trade, the Blackhawks have plans for the Finnish defender. Gustafsson played 41 games for the Blackhawks just two years ago and posted 14 points while playing to a +11 rating and seeing significant ice time. He may not have appeared in 2016-17, he seemed to be a viable candidate for a role this season as well. Valleau not so much. The 24-year-old out of Bowling Green University has struggled to produce in two AHL seasons and his -19 rating compared to just eight points this past season was likely his ticket out of town. Laatta, perhaps the most recognizable name on this list, is still not much of a surprise. As a young player with the Washington Capitals, Laatta showed promise as a career checking line player, but even in that role there were holes in his game. After signing with the Los Angeles Kings last summer, Laatta was dealt to the Blackhawks mid-season for another Capitals cast-off, Cameron Schilling. In neither L.A. nor Chicago did Laatta make an NHL appearance and may be a career minor leaguer moving forward. Helgesen is surely a career minor league player; he has spent the entirety of the past two seasons in the ECHL with nearly no production.
While Chicago’s qualifying moves are fairly straightforward, they don’t always go that way. Stay tuned for more qualifying offer announcements over the next 24 hours.
Islanders’ Perplexing Side-Deal With Vegas
As I briefly mentioned in a previous article, the New York Islanders decided to travel a very perplexing road with their protection list. They shielded only 3 forwards, and protected 5 defensemen, allowing a whole host of forwards to be claimed. These include Brock Nelson, Ryan Strome, Casey Cizikas, Nikolai Kulemin, and Josh Bailey at the upper end of the spectrum. Defenseman Calvin de Haan, who has reportedly has had difficulty coming to a deal with management on a new contract, is also left at Vegas’ disposal
What complicates matters is that Arthur Staple of Newsday has been insinuating that the Islanders have a deal in place to protect Nelson, Strome, and de Haan, while others, such as Darren Dreger, believes the deal only applies to forwards. NHL Numbers stated today that the protection agreement would protect only Bailey and Cizikas, which is easily the most disastrous deal of the group. From a pure value standpoint, Nelson, de Haan and Strome have far more value than either player. Staple believed yesterday evening that the Islanders were going to trade their 15th overall selection in order to push Vegas in a favorable direction. Even still, it doesn’t explain the particulars of the players protected.
John Tavares is an obvious keeper, and Andrew Ladd helped the offense in a big way after a rocky start. Anders Lee is coming off a phenomenal 34 goal season in only his 3rd full outing. The defense revolves around Nick Leddy and Travis Hamonic, and despite his steps backward Johnny Boychuk is a big minute eater for the team. You could have made a case for Ryan Pulock over Boychuk, and made that quite convincingly, but it seemed inevitable that team would lose a defender no matter what. Boychuk did have an NMC, which complicated that matter. Considering that the team was 17th in goals against this past season, that wasn’t exactly a worst-case scenario.
Instead of taking the orthodox 4-4 route and protecting Nelson or Strome as well as Pulock or de Haan, or protecting all but one forward in a 7-3 scheme, the Islanders chose instead to protect a relative no-name in Adam Pelech. Pelech had a solid season, to be sure, but he is a bottom-pairing defenseman and doesn’t project as a difference maker. By opting to leave these players exposed, they take a large aspect of the decision making out of their own hands. GM Garth Snow sacrificed a first round pick and a certain degree of autonomy to protect two forwards, when they could instead have done that on their own. If the end goal was to entice Vegas into selecting Thomas Hickey, they could have done so without the bizarre protection structure. This isn’t even delving into the insanity of surrendering a first-round selection to protect one mid-level player over another.
All in all, the Islanders and GM Garth Snow have stolen the show today for most bewildering decision. Unless the deal with Vegas is far more encompassing than it appears at the moment, they are looking to lose a solid contributor and a 1st-round pick when both could have been avoided.
The original article incorrectly linked Dylan Strome.
Will Hamonic Stay In Brooklyn?
In an off-season where the Islanders’ primary concerns will be extending John Tavares to quell rumors of his departure at the end of the season, and developing prospects into NHL ready contributors, focus on the blueline should not be overlooked.
Travis Hamonic‘s stats aren’t particularly glamorous, with 3 goals and 11 assists through 49 games this past year. His Corsi For % was a career worst at a very unfortunate 43.0%, but many players struggled mightily this season in Brooklyn. He is the assistant captain of the team and his leadership with young players has been particularly important in the wake of losing both Kyle Okposo and Frans Nielsen a year ago. While Nick Leddy and Johnny Boychuk have been brilliant in their roles, Hamonic rounds the defense out with a shutdown type. Calvin de Haan has developed well and will contribute after the RFA negotiates his own contract with New York ownership. The potential error going forward is that the Islanders will see Hamonic as relatively expendable, and that could prove a costly mistake. For a franchise trying yet again to find a way back into the playoffs in a brutally competitive Metropolitan Division, losing top-4 defensemen at their lowest value is not acceptable asset management. If Hamonic were indeed dealt, it would presumably be for far less than Taylor Hall, which according to Arthur Staple and Lighthouse Hockey was an offer rejected by GM Garth Snow last off-season.
Hamonic is listed as the #5 prize in this years trade bait list by TSN which is slightly surprising for a relatively unassuming player. The Wild will almost assuredly trade one of Jonas Brodin (#2) or Mathew Dumba (#3) – leaving the Islanders with an enticing stalwart in a league with lots of struggling defensive squads. That said, it’s difficult to imagine a top line talent being the piece coming back. The Islanders’ stockpile of young players is already quite impressive, so established production is imperative. The player would also likely need to be a winger who could play with John Tavares, but he has had difficulty gelling with players in the past. Although Hamonic had a down year, management should view his overall performance with the franchise rather than drawing conclusions from a tough final season under former coach Jack Capuano. Perhaps the wisest option is to allow Hamonic’s stock to rise again before considering a move.
Islanders Notes: Defensive Struggles, Beauvillier, Goaltending
The New York Islanders find themselves near the top of the league in shots allowed at 32.6 per game; only Arizona (35.5) allows more. As Newsday’s Arthur Staple notes in a reader mailbag, their struggles in that area appear to stem from a systems change designed to compensate for some struggles in their transition game.
The Isles are coached to allow a bit more possession in their back end but strive to allow more shots from the outside as a trade-off. Unfortunately, they’ve struggled when it comes to retrieving the puck and as a result, they’ve taken a beating in the overall possession game which is one of the reasons for their slow start to the season.
One defense pairing in particular who hasn’t thrived under the changes is their expected top duo of Nick Leddy and Travis Hamonic. Both players have struggled considerably in their own end but Staple points out that the coaches are pleased with the other pairs which is why they haven’t been split up yet; they worry about doing more harm than good if they change things up.
Given that the Metropolitan Division has quickly become the hottest in hockey and that they find themselves at the bottom, they may soon have to take the risk of changing things up on the back end in the hopes that doing so can take some of the pressure off their goaltending.
More news from the Islanders:
- While some have speculated that rookie forward Anthony Beauvillier could potentially be loaned for the upcoming World Juniors, that won’t be the case, reports TSN’s Bob McKenzie (Twitter links). The 19 year old has seven points in 20 games this season but has been a healthy scratch more often as of late, suiting up just twice this month. Beauvillier is expected to sit tonight against Chicago, adds Brian Erni of IslandersPointBlank.
- The goaltending situation continues to be a strange one, as Erni along with Andy Graziano debate in a separate column. Jaroslav Halak has a below average goals against average and save percentage while Thomas Greiss is much better in both categories. However, Halak has seen the bulk of the action so far. Part of that is likely due to the fact he has been on the trade block for a while now but with the team quickly falling out of the playoff hunt, it would be understandable if they opted to go with the hotter hand. Further complicating things is Jean-Francois Berube, the third string netminder who has played all of six minutes this year. Graziano notes that if he doesn’t reach 30 appearances this year (highly unlikely at this point), Berube becomes eligible for unrestricted free agency so if they want to keep his RFA rights, they need to play him a lot more as well.
Snapshots: Boucher, Islanders, Kalinin, Predators
Ottawa head coach Guy Boucher will face his former team in Tampa Bay for the first time since they fired him back in 2013 but Bruce Garrioch of the Ottawa Sun notes that Boucher doesn’t bear any ill will towards his former organization.
Part of the reason for that is the amount of time that has passed since he was let go but a main reason is that very few players remain from Boucher’s tenure – just center Steven Stamkos and defenseman Victor Hedman. In other words, GM Steve Yzerman has practically turned over the entire team over in the last three and a half years which Boucher believes makes this basically just another game for him:
“It’s been awhile. We’re talking almost four years and just so much has changed. It would be a lot harder (if) it was all the guys I coached and those guys are coming in. Then I guess there would be emotion there.”
Despite all of the turnover, it’s hard to say that the changes haven’t worked as under Jon Cooper, the team has made three straight postseason appearances and has reached the third round of the playoffs in each of the last two seasons.
Other notes from around the league:
- Islanders defenseman Ryan Pulock made his season debut last night but will have to wait a while to play his second game. He left the game yesterday after just four shifts after suffering a lower body injury and Newsday’s Arthur Staple reports (via Twitter) that he will be out for the next four to six weeks. Pulock was taking the place of Nick Leddy who missed last night’s game with an upper body issue but Staple adds that Leddy is taking part in practice today.
- The Devils are expected to activate center Sergei Kalinin (illness) off of injured reserve prior to tonight’s game against Minnesota, notes Fire and Ice’s Andrew Gross. To make room for him on the active roster, the team announced that they have sent left winger Miles Wood, their lone waiver exempt forward among their depth players, to their AHL affiliate in Albany.
- Over the years, there haven’t been many Swiss-born NHL players but as Adam Vingan of The Tennessean writes, the Predators have had success finding players from there recently. There are currently eight Swiss players in the league and Nashville has three of them – defensemen Roman Josi and Yannick Weber as well as left winger Kevin Fiala. They’re only the second team in NHL history to have three Swiss players on their roster.