8:56 a.m.: The Jets have confirmed Samberg’s new deal. The contract pays him $4.25MM in 2025-26 and $6.5MM each in 2026-27 and 2027-28, according to Ken Wiebe of the Winnipeg Free Press.
7:06 a.m.: The Jets have agreed to a three-year deal with defenseman Dylan Samberg, avoiding his arbitration hearing that was set for later today, Murat Ates of The Athletic was first to report. The only restricted free agent so far to even get to the point of swapping arbitration figures with his club lands a $5.75MM AAV for a total value of $17.25MM.
Samberg wasn’t under team control past this offseason, so he was only eligible for a one-year deal had the two sides needed their hearing to come to terms. He lands an extra two years of security and will become an unrestricted free agent in 2028 – quite close to his likely career peak at age 29 – and lands a salary quite close to his reported $6MM filing in the process. With Samberg now under contract, the Jets have avoided arbitration hearings with their entire class: Samberg, Morgan Barron, and Gabriel Vilardi.
Samberg, 26, has put up monster defensive results from the jump since becoming a full-time NHLer in 2022-23, but only last season did he prove he could carry that over into top-four minutes. In 60 appearances, he logged a career-high 6-14–20 scoring line with a +34 rating, leading the Jets and ranking seventh in the league. He received his toughest defensive deployment to date (58.6 dZS% at even strength) but flourished as Winnipeg’s No. 2 lefty behind Josh Morrissey, helping anchor their second pairing with Neal Pionk while posting a 51.1 CF% and 55.0 xGF%.
For a Jets team whose defensive success over the past few seasons has been driven more by goaltender Connor Hellebuyck than the team’s possession play, those are great numbers. He averaged 21:08 per game last season, and without any meaningful changes on Winnipeg’s blue line this summer, he’s in line for that kind of deployment presumably for the life of this deal.
Putting contracts signed under the pressure of a looming arbitration hearing into context isn’t always a perfect art, but the end result here isn’t too far off from what past comparables projected. AFP Analytics projected a five-year, $5.2MM AAV agreement for Samberg at the beginning of the offseason. That would make this shorter-term pact look a tad pricey, but that figure didn’t take into account the rash of rich deals that have been handed out to big stay-at-home lefties this summer. Considering Nicolas Hague’s four-year, $5.5MM AAV deal and Kevin Bahl’s six-year, $5.35MM contract, the deal is within range, even if the Jets may have paid a small premium to ensure they retain him past this season.
With that, Maple Leafs winger Nicholas Robertson has the only open arbitration case. His hearing is scheduled for Sunday.
Awesome
Jets have come thru for Dylan, however this is still a bargain for them.
Quite the climb down from a pretty lowball number from Chevy. Was it feedback from players, or just a failed bit of bluster? In the end the Jets keep their blueline intact.
This is how arbitration and negotiation works. The team offers the lower amount, the player asks for more, and they settle.
Cheveldayoff still has to tidy up the bottom pairings on defense, Schenn, Stanley, Fleury, Miller, Heinola, All bad, And with a solid forward group I can’t understand why the GM spent money on Nyquist, Toews, And Tanner Pearson, Especially if Brayden Yager can grab a roster spot at training camp.