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Deadline Primer: Boston Bruins

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With the trade deadline fast approaching, we will be taking a closer look at the situation for each team.  Where do they stand, what do they need to do, and what assets do they have to fill those needs?

Outside of the Vegas Golden Knights, there may be no bigger surprise in the NHL this season than the Boston Bruins. Following a 6-7-4 start, capped off by a four-game winless streak in mid-November, the Bruins have won 26 of their last 34 games, have the fewest regulation losses in the league, and trail only Vegas and the Tampa Bay Lightning for the best points percentage in the NHL. With games in hand on both clubs, the Bruins have gone from a team that many felt pre-season would miss the playoffs to one with a legitimate shot at the President’s Trophy. Boston is bona fide contender and thus a surefire buyer. The only question that remains is to what extent they are willing to trade futures for immediate help. The evidence points to a quieter deadline in Boston than some may expect.

Record

31-11-8, 2nd in the Atlantic Division

Deadline Status

Buyer

Deadline Cap Space

$2,452,057 in deadline cap space
43/50 contracts per CapFriendly

Draft Picks

2018: BOS 1st, BOS 2nd, BOS 3rd, BOS 4th, BOS 6th, BOS 7th
2019: BOS 1st, BOS 2nd, BOS 3rd, BOS 4th, BOS 5th, BOS 6th, BOS 7th

Trade Chips

Bruins GM Don Sweeney has been clear that he won’t trade any of the team’s young players on the roster. While that surely includes Charlie McAvoy – one of the most untouchable players in the NHL right now – Brandon Carlo, Matt Grzelcyk, Danton Heinen, Jake DeBrusk, and Anders Bjork, where exactly Sweeney draws the line could determine the size of the deals he’s willing to make. Could frequent 13th man Frank Vatrano be on the move? An electric player in the AHL, Vatrano has failed to show he can produce at the same level in the NHL. A chance of scenery and a larger role on a young, struggling squad could be what Vatrano needs to rediscover his scoring touch, potentially making him an enticing asset. Would Sweeney be willing to move his AHL “tweeners” like Austin Czarnik or Rob O’Gara, who have shown big-league ability, but haven’t been able to crack the roster in Boston? Sweeney may also be reluctant to move many of the Bruins younger prospects, like recent first- and second-rounders Zach Senyshyn, Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson, Jakub Zboril, and Jeremy Lauzon in Providence and Trent Frederic, Ryan Donato, and Ryan Lindgren in the NCAA, especially with several ready to fight for a spot in Boston as early as next year. The Bruins own all but one of their picks over the next two years and that wealth could ultimately wind up being the team’s real trade chip.

Players To Watch

LW Frank Vatrano, C Austin Czarnik, LW Peter Cehlarik, D Rob O’Gara, D Emil Johansson

Team Needs

1) Forward Depth

If you can’t tell from the list of players above, it seems like the Bruins are not exactly aiming to acquire the best that the trade market has to offer. The team is unwilling to move young roster players and has high hopes for their many promising prospects. Sweeney and company have done an excellent job of drafting and developing and seem more inclined to wait and see who pans out and who doesn’t rather than trade them away for rentals. The Bruins’ farm system is also severely lacking in right-shot defensemen and right wingers, meaning they’d likely prefer to hold on to their top picks if possible in search of a solution to those holes. The result is a lineup of middling or aging prospects and mid- and late-round picks as the B’s preferred trade capital, not enough to acquire stars, but sufficient to add depth players. And for the 2017-18 Bruins, that’s perfectly fine. They showed early on this season that they have the depth already to deal with injuries up front (and on the blue line) and since the team got healthy, they’ve been rolling on all cylinders. Each scoring line has two veterans and a young player, led by arguably the league’s best grouping of Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron, and David Pastrnak. A second line that has seen success turning a left-handed natural center in Ryan Spooner into a right wing with David Krejci and DeBrusk and a third line with immense chemistry in David Backes, Riley Nash, and Heinen round out a solid top nine. Perhaps the one area where they could use some assistance is on the fourth line, where Tim Schaller, Noel Acciari, and rookie Sean Kuraly have done a fine job, but the addition of a solid, two-way bottom-six forward (or two) could be a welcome addition to the energy line and another injury depth option. Even if the Bruins don’t see a need for a starter, with late draft picks to burn, they could add another veteran forward just to improve their depth. In a buyer’s market, even one of the bigger names on the market could fit this role.

2) Left-shot depth defenseman

Similarly, each defensive pair is also well-balanced with a veteran and a youngster and a puck-mover with a physical threat. The Bruins usually line up with Zdeno Chara and Calder candidate McAvoy, Torey Krug with Carlo, and possession monster Grzelcyk with Kevan Miller. Now that he’s healthy, career-starter Adam McQuaid is the #7 defenseman in Boston – stellar depth already – and free agent addition Paul Postma is #8 – also impressive. The only problem is that both McQuaid and Postma are right-handed, as are the right-side rearguards on each pair. If injury strikes the left side, or if Grzelcyk’s play drops off, the B’s could use a left-shot option. O’Gara and Tommy Cross have seen NHL action and Zboril, Lauzon, and Johansson have shown NHL promise, but the Bruins can afford to add a more reliable player with regular play time this season if they so choose.

3) Top-six right wing with term

Don’t expect this. Long-term, there could be a hole on Krejci’s right side, as Backes did not work out last season and Spooner’s success thus far has come as a surprise. Senyshyn or Donato and an off-wing option like Bjork or Cehlarik could eventually take the job, but there are some who think the Bruins should instead try to buy one of the top wings on the trade market. However, there are two problems with this thought: 1) Sweeney seems unwilling to part with the pieces necessary to land such a player, and 2) the line chemistry implications could backfire. Spooner is an offense-first, top-nine player. If forced out of his current spot, Spooner’s only real option would be to supplant Nash on the third line. If that doesn’t work out, then there’s no role for him. An expensive trade could wind up pushing one of the Bruins’ top play-making forwards out of the lineup. Adding a top-six winger would be a luxury for Boston and Sweeney does not seem to be a guy keen on giving up hard-earned, home-grown prospects or picks for a luxury.

Super Bowl Preview: NHL Edition

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In the biggest sporting event of the year tomorrow, the New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles will square off in Super Bowl LII in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Patriots are five-time Super Bowl winners, including two of the past three, while the Eagles are looking for their first ever title in the Super Bowl era. The teams and their histories could not be more different. The same cannot be said for their NHL counterparts, the Boston Bruins and Philadelphia Flyers, who have been rivals from as far back as when they were called the Boston Patriots in the AFL. So, while everyone else debates the ins and outs of the big game tomorrow, let’s take a look at the likely winner through the lens of the Pats’ and Eagles’ hockey-playing neighbors:

Scoring Offense – Advantage: Boston

When it comes to scoring, the Bruins are as dangerous as the Patriots. Boston has 160 goals for on the year, 8th in the league, but in only 49 games, giving them the 5th-best 3.27 goals per game rate. Led by Brad Marchand, who’s scoring .55 goals per game on his own this season, and his line mates Patrice Bergeron and David Pastrnak, who make up the league’s most dangerous line, the Bruins have great offensive potential. The Flyers meanwhile are just 18th in the league in scoring, with 147 goals, and putting up only 2.88 goals per game. However, Jakub Voracek and Claude Giroux are the two highest scoring players in the match-up, so don’t underestimate Philadelphia’s offensive potential.

Scoring Defense – Advantage: Boston

There’s no better team in the league at preventing goals than the Bruins, who are number one in goals against (120) and goals against per game (2.45). With Tuukka Rask playing Vezina-level hockey and Marchand, Bergeron, and 40-year-old Zdeno Chara (channeling his inner Tom Brady) among the top ten in the league in plus/minus, the Bruins are a force to reckon with on defense. The Flyers have struggled on defense in 2017-18, allowing 150 goals, tied for 19th in goals against. While the defense has been leaky at times, much of the fault lies with the underwhelming goalie duo of Brian Elliott and Michal Neuvirth. 

Passing Offense – Advantage: Boston

Passing will be a vital factor in the big game, and the Bruins hold a slight edge. The Bruins have 271 assists on the year compared to the Flyers’ 264. While Voracek is undoubtedly the best passer in the contest, with 50 assists already on the year, Boston’s overall puck movement game is superior, due in no small part to sleek passers on the blue line in Charlie McAvoy and Torey Krug, and several of the best possession players in the league, including the top Corsi player so far in 2017-18, rookie rearguard Matt Grzelcyk. 

Turnovers – Advantage: Boston

Turnovers can make or break a game and while both teams are in the red in turnover margin, the totals are not even close. The Bruins have recorded 442 takeaways so far this season, among the best in the league. However, they do give up the puck a fair amount with 465 recorded giveaways, producing a turnover margin of -23. Fortunately for Boston, the Flyers have given up the puck 462 times themselves, but have had no luck at all in taking it back, with only 302 recorded takeaways. That produces an ugly turnover margin of -160 and another big advantage for Boston.

Special Teams – Advantage: Boston

The Bruins’ 7th-ranked power play (21.71%) and 5th-ranked penalty kill (83.33%) make them one of, if not the best special teams squad in the NHL. They capitalize on the opposition’s penalties, but don’t let their own penalties cost them. That will be especially helpful against Philadelphia, who takes fewer penalties per game than Boston and is just behind the B’s in power play efficiency; their 21.39% success rate is good enough for 8th. However, Philly has struggled greatly short-handed, with the league’s third-worst penalty kill (73.89%).

Super Bowl Prediction: New England in a landslide

It’s been a few years since the Bruins were playing at a level anywhere near the dynastic Patriots, but in 2017-18 they are right there. Compared to the Flyers in all the important (and possible to compare) football statistics, it’s not even close. If the Patriots channel the Bruins, they should roll over the Eagles like they’ve rolled over the NFL for close to 20 years. One final note: the Pats have struggled to score early and have had to come from behind in each of their last two Super Bowl wins and even their AFC Championship win two weeks ago – the Bruins have the second-best points percentage in the NHL this season when allowing the first goal. It all lines up.

 

 

 

Atlantic Notes: Grzelcyk, Blashill, Karlsson

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With Boston defenseman Adam McQuaid nearing a return to the lineup, the Bruins will soon have a decision to make on their back end.  In order to make the roster and salary cap room to activate him off LTIR, the team will have to make a move.  On the surface, it would appear that blueliner Matt Grzelcyk, who is on recall from the minors, would be the logical one to go back down but Fluto Shinzawa of the Boston Globe argues that the 23-year-old has done enough to not only stay on the NHL roster but stay in the lineup when McQuaid gets the green light to suit up and suggests that going with seven rearguards may be the way to go for the time being.

Fortunately for the Bruins, they have several waiver-exempt forwards on the active roster which gives them some options to choose from but with McQuaid nearly ready to play, they’ll have to make a decision in the very near future.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic:

  • Although the Red Wings have come crashing down as of late, Ted Kulfan of the Detroit News believes it’s unlikely that a midseason coaching change is on the horizon. Instead, he expects the team to wait until after the season and make a decision on Jeff Blashill’s fate at that time as well as GM Ken Holland.  Holland’s contract is up at the end of the season so it may make more sense to make a decision on both their futures at the same time once April rolls around.
  • Senators defenseman Erik Karlsson is coming off a stellar performance on Saturday against Montreal and according to head coach Guy Boucher, he is right on target with their expectations when it comes to his recovery from offseason foot surgery. He told Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch that they felt Karlsson wouldn’t be fully recovered until around the holiday break given the nature of the procedure and the fact he basically jumped into games with no training camp and minimal practice.  If Ottawa is to play themselves back into the postseason hunt, they’ll need their top blueliner at his best and it appears he’s getting closer to being just that.

Injuries Unending In Boston; Krejci, DeBrusk Join Sidelined

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Boston Bruins beat writer Joe Haggerty could not have said it better: “You can’t make this stuff up”. The unbelievable rash of injuries continues in Boston, as center David Krejci and rookie winger Jake DeBrusk have been ruled out for Wednesday night’s match-up against the Atlantic-leading Tampa Bay Lightning.

The sheer number of injuries suffered by the Bruins this season, especially among the forward corps, is hard to comprehend. 22 games into the 2017-18 campaign the only forward to have played every game are David Pastrnak and energy-liners-turned-top-nine-mainstays Riley Nash, Sean Kuraly, and Tim Schaller. While there is no word yet on the extent of DeBrusk’s injury, the young scorer has been one of the Bruins’ more dependable forwards with 12 points in 21 games, but of course he now joins the long list of casualties. Currently out of the lineup alongwith DeBrusk and Krejci, who had only just returned to action, are 2016-17 leading scorer Brad Marchand, veteran David Backes, power play catalyst Ryan Spooner, promising rookies Anders Bjork and Peter Cehlarik and, of course, defenseman Adam McQuaid as well. Spooner just recently re-injured the groin that had kept him out all but eight games on the season. In the same game, Cehlarik suffered a leg injury that should keep him out at least a month. Marchand and Bjork have been sidelined since November 13th and there has been no concrete information on when exactly either can be expected back.  Backes has made a remarkably quick recovery from major surgery to cure his diverticulitis, but he too is not quite ready to return and there are doubts about how he will play once he is back. Other Bruins forward who have missed time already this season: Patrice Bergeron (5 games), Noel Acciari (13 games), and Matt Beleskey (2 games).

The defense has done a bit better though, with captain Zdeno Chara and talented youngsters Charlie McAvoy and Brandon Carlo all suiting up for every game. Kevan Miller has missed only one game, while Torey Krug’s four-game absence seems like nothing. A platoon of Paul Postma, Rob O’Gara and Matt Grzelcyk has performed well enough in the absence of McQuaid.

In total, the Bruins have missed a whopping 100 man-games already this season, far more than any other team in the league and heavily weighted toward their forwards. That makes it all the more impressive that the team is still sitting pretty in the Atlantic Division. In terms of points percentage, the B’s are third in the Atlantic and just behind the two-time Cup-champion Pittsburgh Penguins overall. Their 60 goals for may a bottom-five number in the NHL, but what would you expect from a two-way team missing most of its offensive talent? A recent winning streak showed that the Bruins and head coach Bruce Cassidy can get it done, even with a makeshift roster. There is no sign of when Boston will get back to full strength, if ever this season, but if they do it could be dangerous for the rest of the NHL.

Boston Bruins Recall Tommy Cross, Matt Grzelcyk

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The Boston Bruins have brought up some reinforcements for their game against the Ottawa Senators tonight. Both Tommy Cross and Matt Grzelcyk have been recalled on emergency basis. Cross, the captain of the Providence Bruins took part in the morning skate and should be paired with John-Michael Liles tonight, replacing the injured Adam McQuaid.

Cross, 27, was drafted in the second round, 35th overall in 2007 but has played just three games at the NHL level in his entire career. Fighting his way up through almost every level of hockey in the United States, Cross completed four years at Boston College before originally being assigned to the ECHL. A leader everywhere he’s played, he wore a letter (A, then C) on each of his two national college championships, and has captained the P-Bruins for two years. He’ll try to lend that veteran presence to the team, even if it is a brand new stage for him in the NHL playoffs.

Grzelcyk on the other hand is just 23-years old, and just completed his first professional season. Another graduate of a Hockey-East school, Grzelcyk captained Boston University his final two seasons. The undersized defender has excellent puck-moving skills, and racked up 32 points in his rookie AHL season. While he is still young, his experience in NCAA playoff games and the World Juniors in 2014 should help any nerves he may have about making his NHL playoff debut (should he get into the lineup). In two games with Boston this season, he has been held pointless.

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