Atlantic Notes: Johnson, Drouin, Bruins, Outdoor Game, Lightning
The Tampa Bay Lightning have been without winger Tyler Johnson for the last week after suffering an upper-body injury in practice. While the 28-year-old is listed as day-to-day, NHL.com’s Bryan Burns writes that Tampa Bay general manager Julien BriseBois recently hinted that Johnson could miss more time than originally expected, including possibly missing the season opener.
“We’re optimistic that he’ll be ready for the season opener but there are no guarantees,” Brisbois said. “In any event, we don’t expect this to be something that will be long term.”
Johnson is a key player on the Lightning’s top-six as he is coming off a 21-goal, 50-point season and the team needs him on the ice if it wants to make another Stanley Cup run this season.
- Stu Cowan of the Montreal Gazette writes that Montreal Canadiens Jonathan Drouin, who spent his entire summer working on his skills at the center position was a little surprised when they moved him back to wing on the first day of training camp. “I worked on centre stuff all summer, so I was a bit surprised,” Drouin said. “Starting the season it’s easier to go from centre to wing if you’ve played that. I just need to get my feet wet more a little bit and get back to that elite winger I used to be.” Drouin hopes returning to his original position will give him a chance to develop into the elite winger that Montreal thought they were getting when they traded for him last offseason.
- The Boston Bruins are still making decisions on who will make their opening day roster, but no matter how you look at it, some very talented youngsters will find themselves on the outside looking in, according to Joe Haggerty of NBC Sports. The scribe writes that some players will have trouble making the roster, including defenseman Matt Grzelcyk as well as Anders Bjork. Grzelcyk played in 61 games, but could find himself in a seventh-man role or worse with the depth on the team’s blueline, while a shoulder injury has hindered the chances of Bjork making the team as Ryan Donato and Danton Heinen seem to have surpassed him on the depth chart. Bjork might get a chance to return for a preseason game or two, but is it too late?
- NHL.com’s Bryan Burns writes that the Tampa Bay Lightning owner Jeff Vinik believes the team is closing in on the possibility of getting an outdoor game as weather in February may be good enough in Tampa to host a game. However, NHL executive VP Steve Mayer countered (via The Athletic’s Joe Smith) that by saying that while Tampa Bay is one of many teams up for an outdoor game, no decisions have been made yet. An announcement won’t be made until early next year.
- Two players who were cut by the Tampa Bay Lightning are also going down injured as defenseman Daniel Walcott is expected to be out five to six months with a shoulder injury, while forward Kevin Lynch will miss four to six weeks with a lower-body injury, according to the Lightning. Both will eventually find their way onto the Lightning’s AHL squad once they have healed.
Salary Cap Deep Dive: Boston Bruins
Navigating the Salary Cap is probably one of the more important tasks for any general manager to have. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.
PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2018-19 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.
Boston Bruins
Current Projected Cap Hit: $76,540,667 (under the $79.5MM Upper Limit)
Entry Level Contracts
D Charlie McAvoy (one year, $917K)
D Brandon Carlo (one year, $789K)
F Jake DeBrusk (two years, $863K)
F Danton Heinen (one year, $873K)
F Ryan Donato (one year, $900K)
F Anders Bjork (two years, $925K)
Potential Bonuses:
McAvoy: $500K
DeBrusk: $425K
Heinen: $213K
Donato: $850K
Total: $1.99MM
Under $5.5MM in salary and under $2MM in potential bonuses for that group of players? It would be hard to find any team in the league who wouldn’t be excited about that scenario. Carlo has played a top four role for the Bruins for two seasons already and McAvoy asserted himself not only as the top defenseman on the team as a rookie last year, but one of the best defenders in the league; they’re both just beginning to show what they can be. The other four forwards will likely make up the bulk of the top nine in Boston this season. Heinen and DeBrusk finished fourth and sixth respectively among Bruins forwards in scoring last year, each with 40+ points, and noticeably improved as the season wore on. Bjork began the year in the top six and scored at a pace that would have put him at 30+ points on the year, if not for a roster crunch and later on an injury that kept him out of the lineup for much of the year. The latest addition is Donato, who joined the team down the stretch after leading both the NCAA and Winter Olympics in goals per game. If the Bruins’ top prospect finds chemistry with a scoring line and earns substantial ice time, he could be a legitimate Calder Trophy threat.
Of course, the caveat to all of this is that the Bruins can only enjoy most of these bargain deals for one more year. All but DeBrusk and Bjork will be due extensions by this time next year. McAvoy is in line for an expensive, long-term contract that could easily surpass the six-year, $29.7MM contract just recently signed by the Calgary Flames’ Noah Hanifin. Carlo will be due a much more modest raise, but a raise nonetheless. The real intrigue lies with Heinen and Donato. If Heinen is again the best non-first line forward on the Bruins this season, he will have cemented himself as a crucial piece of the core and will be able to command a hefty bump in salary. A regression and being overshadowed by other young forward could keep his next cap hit at a more comfortable level. The same goes for Donato, who could meet his lofty expectations as a rookie and significantly raise his asking price or could fail to stand out against Boston’s other young forwards and sign a more modest second contract. Perhaps even the Bruins don’t know which outcome they would prefer: their impending RFA’s playing incredibly well and boosting their value or instead playing secondary roles and staying reasonably priced? Either way, the team will at least be glad to have DeBrusk and other incoming prospects at ELC cap hits in 2019-20.
One Year Remaining, Non-Entry Level
D Zdeno Chara ($5MM, UFA)
D Adam McQuaid ($2.75MM, UFA)
F Noel Acciari ($725K, UFA)
Not much is going to change on the Bruins roster between 2018-19 and 2019-20 if unrestricted free agency is any indicator. Given how few current players are impending unrestricted free agents and the number and value of the likely RFA contracts that they will need to hand out, it will probably be a quiet summer in Boston next year.
Of this group, the one departure that seems certain is McQuaid. As it stands now, McQuaid might not only be a bench player for the Bruins this season but could even be considered the team’s #8 defenseman and very well could land on the trade block or even waivers over the course of the campaign. The loyal veteran is one of the remaining holdovers from the team’s 2011 Stanley Cup title and has only ever played hard-nosed, competent hockey in Boston. However, frequent injuries paired with the development of Kevan Miller into a better version of McQuaid has all but made the original superfluous. Now, Boston may not carry eight defenseman all season long and if someone other than McQuaid is traded, that would open up some more opportunity for the physical veteran. However, it still seems that – given the players signed on the blue line as it is and the crop of prospects in Providence (AHL) pushing for play time – that McQuaid’s days in Boston are numbered one way or another.
Counting the days until Chara retires may be a pointless effort, though. The 41-year-old continues to defy nature in every regard. Chara led all Boston skaters in ice time with 23 minutes per night and has been the team’s average ice-time leader for a whopping twelve years straight. While his offense remains in decline, his defensive game made a major comeback last season and the league’s oldest defenseman even garnered Norris Trophy votes. In all likelihood, the Bruins will look to reduce Chara’s role this year in an effort to make him even more effective in limited minutes. If that proves successful, don’t be surprised to see Boston give Chara incentive-laden one-year contracts until he finally decides to hand up his skates. At this rate, it could be another year or two after this current contract expires.
Some may discount what spark plug Acciari brings to the Bruins and consider his impending free agency to not be much of a factor. Yet, Acciari is considered by many to be one of the more underrated defensive forwards in the league. A versatile player and punishing checker, Acciari is an ideal fourth-liner who frustrates the opposition without landing in penalty trouble or ending up on the wrong side of turnovers. Acciari logged 152 hits last season versus just four minor penalty minutes and recorded 20 takeaways to just nine giveaways. Few players in the league are so efficient with their defensive play. Acciari is a local product who fits the style and culture of the Bruins well and could certainly wind up with a multi-year extension. With that said, the Bruins’ addition of Chris Wagner this summer adds a lot of the same ability that Acciari brings to the table. If cap space or roster space becomes an issue, Acciari is not guaranteed a new contract.
Atlantic Notes: Red Wings, Krug, Reinhart, Kotkaniemi
With the last piece of major housekeeping completed in Detroit after the Red Wings signed star Dylan Larkin to a five-year, $30.5MM deal, the team now has to take a look at their salary cap, which they will be over, even after they move forward Johan Franzen to LTIR. General manager Ken Holland told The Athletic’s Craig Custance, they will likely be “in the neighborhood” of $1MM over the cap.
“We’re very tight,” Holland said on Friday of the cap situation. “With this deal, we’re probably a dribble over. Not a lot, but we’re over. We’re going to have to make some decisions moving forward.”
One possibility would be to bury the contracts of Martin Frk and Luke Witkowski in the minors. However, if the team believes that veteran Henrik Zetterberg could end up missing the season as his injuries haven’t improved this summer, the team could place him on LTIR as well and wouldn’t have anything else to worry about. Custance adds, however, that if Zetterberg does return, that likely would end the chances of 2018 first-round pick Filip Zadina of making the roster out of training camp.
- In a mailbag series, Joe Haggerty of NBC Sports writes that with eight quality NHL defenseman on the roster, the team will likely make a trade before the season starts. The team has Torey Krug, Zdeno Chara, Adam McQuaid, John Moore, Kevan Miller, Matt Grzelcyk, Charlie McAvoy and Brandon Carlo on the roster. The scribe writes that could mean that the team might be ready to move Krug if the team can get a big return for the blueliner. And they would need to, as Krug is one of the top offensive defensemen in the league as only Erik Karlsson, Victor Hedman, Brent Burns and John Klingberg have more points over the last two seasons. He has 22 goals and 110 points combined in that time.
- The Athletic’s Ryan Stimson (subscription required) wonders where restricted free agent Sam Reinhart should play next year in the Buffalo Sabres’ lineup once he signs. The 22-year-old center has been a decent center for the Sabres in the past, but saw his game blossom once he was moved up and played on the wing next to top-line center Jack Eichel. With the team moving on from Ryan O’Reilly and bringing in prospect Casey Mittelstadt, what should the team do with Reinhart? The scribe breaks down Reinhart’s game and wonders if it would be best for the youngster to take over the team’s No. 2 center position and ease Mittelstadt in.
- The Athletic’s Mitch Brown (subscription required) ranks the Montreal Canadiens’ top five prospects with 2018 third-overall pick Jesperi Kotkaniemi listed as their top prospect. The young centerman, who flew up the draft boards in the final weeks, anchors a list of prospects that Brown believes is the most exciting in the last five or six years. He has been successful playing in the SM-liiga as an 18-year-old and is expected to fill that long-waited hole in the middle.
College Notes: Meyer, Fensore, Rule Changes
Carson Meyer‘s luck has finally turned. The Ohio native and Columbus Blue Jackets draft pick was hoping to make it the Buckeye State trifecta by transferring to Ohio State for his junior year collegiate season. Meyer struggled this past season at Miami University, fighting health issues and fatigue to record only ten points despite reaching 26 as a freshman and 51 in his final junior season in the USHL. Meyer later discovered that the “sickness” impacting his play was actually a 25-inch tapeworm. Wanting to put that experience past him, Meyer transferred to OSU only to be told that he would likely have to sit for a year due to NCAA transfer rules. However, the university has announced that the NCAA has approved their submitted waiver for Meyer to participate immediately this year. Now back at full health and joining a team that reached the Frozen Four last year, the quick winger could be in store for a breakout campaign.
- Boston University has received a commitment from U.S. National Development Team defenseman Dominick Fensore, beginning in the 2019-20 season. The young rearguard took to Twitter to announce the decision himself. While Fensore clearly has enough talent to play in the exclusive development program, he brings the undersized defensemen trend to a new level. The 16-year-old stands 5’6″ and is listed at just 141 pounds. While the teenage blue liner surely has more growing to do, that is incredibly small for any hockey player, never the less a defenseman. Luckily, BU has excelled in recent years with developing smaller defensemen, such as the Boston Bruins’ Matt Grzelcyk and current NHL prospects Chad Krys (CHI) and David Farrance (NSH). After another year with the USNTDP, playing alongside top 2019 defensive prospect and future Boston College rival Cam York, Fensore should be ready to join the Terriers and make an impact at the college level.
- The rules for overtime in the NCAA will be a bit different going forward and how different they are will depend on the conference. The NCAA approved a proposal this week that gives each conference autonomy in deciding how best to handle overtime out of three options. If the score is tied after regulation, there will continue to be a mandatory five-minute, five-on-five overtime. After that, the new rule allows for a) the game to end in a tie, b) a shootout, or c) a five-minute, three-on-three overtime followed by a shootout. Non-conference games and postseason games will continue to use their previous overtime formats. Another new rule also provides each time with an additional timeout if the game goes to overtime. Other approved rule changes include using video replay to review ejection-worthy penalties, new definitions for slashing and legal substitution, and – perhaps most interesting – allowing teams to dress 19 players rather than the typical 18 players for each game.
Bruins Re-Sign Matt Grzelcyk To Two-Year Deal
The Boston Bruins have locked up one of their many impressive young players, announcing an extension for defenseman Matt Grzelcyk. The deal carries a $1.4MM AAV and will keep the Boston native with his hometown team for at least two more years.
While Grzelcyk may not be one of the most talked-about young players in the league or even in Boston, the small but capable blue liner was a pleasant surprise as a rookie in 2017-18. A 2012 third-round pick and a former pair-mate of fellow Bruin Charlie McAvoy‘s at Boston University, the Bruins always had high expectations of Grzelcyk. However, few could have expected that his performance would thrust him into a starting role and leave veterans like Adam McQuaid and Paul Postma as afterthoughts for much of the season. Grzlecyk skated in 61 games for the Bruins, contributing 15 points along the way. He also posted a +21 rating, tied for third-best on the team with two-way star Patrice Bergeron. In the postseason, Grzelcyk played in all but one of Boston’s games as well and didn’t look out of place.
Perhaps the greatest attribute that Grzelcyk showed as a rookie – and one that caught the eye of those in tune with advanced analytics – was his possession ability. Grzelcyk finished the year with a top 25 Corsi For rating (among players with at least 300 minutes of ice time) of 55.67%, which was third best among rookies behind only McAvoy and Columbus’ Pierre-Luc Dubois. Grzelcyk even held the best relative shot differential among all defenseman in the NHL for a significant span of time mid-season. While not an overly physical player nor a player with huge offensive upside, Grzelcyk showed himself to be a safe puck-handler and a player that can be relied on to create offense and suppress the opposing offense.
Moving forward, Grzelcyk’s role may change. The Bruins continue to show a desire to add a top-four left-handed defenseman, likely to pair long-term with McAvoy at the top of the depth chart. This would likely shift Zdeno Chara and Torey Krug down, as McAvoy, Brandon Carlo, and Kevan Miller form a solid grouping on the right side. The result could be Grzelcyk becoming an extra man rather than a starter for the next year or two. Grzelcyk’s skill set and ceiling could make him an ideal seventh defender in his career, if that is the role he is asked to play. However, the value of this contract and the speed with which both sides agreed upon the terms indicates that the Bruins have plans for Grzelcyk, likely short-term or long-term. The young defenseman is just getting started with his NHL career and will get plenty more chances to show himself in Boston.
Bruins Notes: Free Agents, Czarnik, Injuries, Draft
Boston Bruins GM Don Sweeney spoke with the media today from the NHL Draft Combine in Buffalo and was very up front about the team’s plans this off-season. The Bruins exceeded expectations this season with a young team that finished with one of the best records in the NHL. Sweeney has previously stated that he would like to return many of the team’s impending unrestricted free agents – Anton Khudobin, Riley Nash, Rick Nash, Tommy Wingels, Tim Schaller, Nick Holden, and Austin Czarnik – but due to salary cap restraints and a promising prospect crop in the AHL in need of opportunity, he did not expect that all would be back. Today, Sweeney went in a different direction, confirming that the team would not offer new contracts to several other free agents: Brian Gionta, Kenny Agostino, and Paul Postma. The announcement should come as no surprise, as the trio all underwhelmed in Boston this season. A late addition to the team for the stretch run and postseason, Gionta looked as if he would have been better off retiring after the Olympics. The veteran forward contributed only seven points in 20 regular season games and played in just one playoff game, in which he was a liability against the fast-paced Tampa Bay Lightning. Gionta is likely to call it quits for good this off-season. Agostino, the 2017 AHL MVP, not only made little difference in Boston with just one point in five games, but finished the minor league season in Providence with 30 points less than his MVP campaign in only one less game. Agostino will need to search for a new home for the third straight summer. Postma, while not necessarily a disappointment in Boston, ended up being of little use to the team. The relative health of the Bruins’ four right-handed defenseman and the emergence of rookie Matt Grzelcyk on the left side made Postma the #8 option for much of the year. He was unable to even retain that role after the Bruins acquired Holden at the trade deadline. Overall, Postma played in 14 games in Boston, recording just one point, before clearing waivers and being assigned to the AHL, where he played another 17 games with Providence in the regular season and postseason. The long-time Winnipeg Jets defender will be on the hunt for a more regular NHL role next year, if he can find one.
- Sweeney briefly touched on the situation with Czarnik, which has put the Bruins in somewhat of a pickle. Czarnik, 25, played in 49 games as a rookie with Boston in 2016-17, but lost out on a roster spot this year to the likes of fellow youngsters Jake DeBrusk, Danton Heinen, Anders Bjork, and Sean Kuraly. Czarnik managed to play in ten games for the Bruins, and looked good doing so with four points, but roster restrictions forced him back to the AHL each time. In the minors, Czarnik was unstoppable with 69 points in 64 games – good enough for third in the AHL scoring race. It was an impressive performance, but still not good enough to vault Czarnik back to the top of a Bruins’ prospect pipeline that is very deep, especially at center. Ideally, the Bruins would have liked to deal Czarnik as a restricted free agent with his value at its highest. However, as a 25-year-old with three pro seasons under his belt but less than 80 NHL games played, Czarnik instead qualifies for Group 6 unrestricted free agency per the NHL CBA and is free to sign with any team. Sweeney expressed that both the team and Czarnik have not closed the door on an extension, but that he feels Czarnik is “intrigued by what may exist elsewhere”. There will surely be a market for the swift, play-making forward and a return to Boston seems unlikely.
- Sweeney also updated the injury status of his team, revealing that banged-up checkers Schaller and Noel Acciari both underwent surgery following the season. The Bruins’ fourth line, while not much of an offensive threat, was one of the best defensively this season. However, their play began to tail off in the postseason and the major injuries for Schaller and Acciari certainly lend some explanation to that trend. The duo were just two of myriad injuries for Boston, but join only Brandon Carlo in going under the knife. Sweeney stated that the rest of the injured – Torey Krug, Zdeno Chara, Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand, David Backes, DeBrusk, Nash, and Nash – will all avoid surgery for now.
- Finally, Sweeney responded to a question about whether or not he would try to trade back into the first round of the NHL Draft next month. The Bruins sent their first-rounder to the New York Rangers in the Rick Nash deal and do not own any other team’s pick. Sweeney seemed hesitant to promise anything, saying that it is “hard” to trade back in, but did add that “you never know what some team may want to do”. In a draft class that many feels runs out of elite prospects after the first 15 or so selections, Boston may not be scrambling to trade current or future assets for a first-round pick anyway. With a late second and an early third from the Florida Panthers, the Bruins should be able to add two players with similar career projections to some late first-round picks. Even if they don’t get a future star, the Boston system is one of the best in the league with more than enough talent pushing for play time in the NHL as it is.
Minor Transactions: 03/29/18
The Arizona Coyotes are playing the ultimate spoiler down the stretch, winning again last night against the Vegas Golden Knights to draw even with the Vancouver Canucks for last in the Western Conference. Arizona has played well of late, giving them some hope for next season as they look to build around a young core.
For the Coyotes and all the teams out of the playoffs, now is the time to experiment with players who might not have had a chance to prove what they can do earlier in the season. With that, we’ll keep track of all the minor transactions around the league right here.
- The Boston Bruins have sent Paul Postma back to the minors while recalling Tommy Cross under emergency conditions. Cross, the Providence Bruins captain, has played 66 games in the AHL this season and could be getting just a nice bonus for a good season. The 28-year old defenseman wasn’t on any of the pairings at morning skate, as both Zdeno Chara and Matt Grzelcyk took their normal spots.
- The Ottawa Senators have recalled Colin White under emergency conditions, and announced that Chris Wideman will not play again this season. White has played 15 games with the Senators this season, but failed to make enough of an impact to keep him in the lineup full-time. The 21-year old forward is still a big part of the Senators’ future, but hasn’t had the season many had hoped from him after his dominant career at Boston College.
- Josh Jooris has been recalled by the Pittsburgh Penguins as Derick Brassard battles injury, meaning Riley Sheahan probably moves back to the third line center position. Jooris was acquired from the Carolina Hurricanes for just this reason, giving the Penguins some added depth should they face injury.
- Pheonix Copley has been re-assigned once again, sent back to the minor leagues after a short recall. Copley has been filling in for the Washington Capitals when needed, but still hasn’t actually entered a game.
- Spencer Foo is coming up for the Calgary Flames, using their fourth post-deadline recall. Foo was signed out of the NCAA last spring, and has made an impact in the AHL during his first season of professional hockey. He’ll likely get a chance to make his NHL debut over the last week of the season, and compete for a full-time job next fall.
- With Semyon Varlamov (illness) and Jonathan Bernier (infection) both expected to be available on Friday night, the Avalanche have returned goaltender Spencer Martin to San Antonio of the AHL. Martin has not seen any action with Colorado this season but has appeared in 32 games at the minor league level, posting a 3.02 GAA and a .895 SV%.
Deadline Primer: Boston Bruins
With the trade deadline fast approaching, we will be taking a closer look at the situation for each team. Where do they stand, what do they need to do, and what assets do they have to fill those needs?
Outside of the Vegas Golden Knights, there may be no bigger surprise in the NHL this season than the Boston Bruins. Following a 6-7-4 start, capped off by a four-game winless streak in mid-November, the Bruins have won 26 of their last 34 games, have the fewest regulation losses in the league, and trail only Vegas and the Tampa Bay Lightning for the best points percentage in the NHL. With games in hand on both clubs, the Bruins have gone from a team that many felt pre-season would miss the playoffs to one with a legitimate shot at the President’s Trophy. Boston is bona fide contender and thus a surefire buyer. The only question that remains is to what extent they are willing to trade futures for immediate help. The evidence points to a quieter deadline in Boston than some may expect.
Record
31-11-8, 2nd in the Atlantic Division
Deadline Status
Buyer
Deadline Cap Space
$2,452,057 in deadline cap space
43/50 contracts per CapFriendly
Draft Picks
2018: BOS 1st, BOS 2nd, BOS 3rd, BOS 4th, BOS 6th, BOS 7th
2019: BOS 1st, BOS 2nd, BOS 3rd, BOS 4th, BOS 5th, BOS 6th, BOS 7th
Trade Chips
Bruins GM Don Sweeney has been clear that he won’t trade any of the team’s young players on the roster. While that surely includes Charlie McAvoy – one of the most untouchable players in the NHL right now – Brandon Carlo, Matt Grzelcyk, Danton Heinen, Jake DeBrusk, and Anders Bjork, where exactly Sweeney draws the line could determine the size of the deals he’s willing to make. Could frequent 13th man Frank Vatrano be on the move? An electric player in the AHL, Vatrano has failed to show he can produce at the same level in the NHL. A chance of scenery and a larger role on a young, struggling squad could be what Vatrano needs to rediscover his scoring touch, potentially making him an enticing asset. Would Sweeney be willing to move his AHL “tweeners” like Austin Czarnik or Rob O’Gara, who have shown big-league ability, but haven’t been able to crack the roster in Boston? Sweeney may also be reluctant to move many of the Bruins younger prospects, like recent first- and second-rounders Zach Senyshyn, Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson, Jakub Zboril, and Jeremy Lauzon in Providence and Trent Frederic, Ryan Donato, and Ryan Lindgren in the NCAA, especially with several ready to fight for a spot in Boston as early as next year. The Bruins own all but one of their picks over the next two years and that wealth could ultimately wind up being the team’s real trade chip.
Players To Watch
LW Frank Vatrano, C Austin Czarnik, LW Peter Cehlarik, D Rob O’Gara, D Emil Johansson
Team Needs
1) Forward Depth
If you can’t tell from the list of players above, it seems like the Bruins are not exactly aiming to acquire the best that the trade market has to offer. The team is unwilling to move young roster players and has high hopes for their many promising prospects. Sweeney and company have done an excellent job of drafting and developing and seem more inclined to wait and see who pans out and who doesn’t rather than trade them away for rentals. The Bruins’ farm system is also severely lacking in right-shot defensemen and right wingers, meaning they’d likely prefer to hold on to their top picks if possible in search of a solution to those holes. The result is a lineup of middling or aging prospects and mid- and late-round picks as the B’s preferred trade capital, not enough to acquire stars, but sufficient to add depth players. And for the 2017-18 Bruins, that’s perfectly fine. They showed early on this season that they have the depth already to deal with injuries up front (and on the blue line) and since the team got healthy, they’ve been rolling on all cylinders. Each scoring line has two veterans and a young player, led by arguably the league’s best grouping of Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron, and David Pastrnak. A second line that has seen success turning a left-handed natural center in Ryan Spooner into a right wing with David Krejci and DeBrusk and a third line with immense chemistry in David Backes, Riley Nash, and Heinen round out a solid top nine. Perhaps the one area where they could use some assistance is on the fourth line, where Tim Schaller, Noel Acciari, and rookie Sean Kuraly have done a fine job, but the addition of a solid, two-way bottom-six forward (or two) could be a welcome addition to the energy line and another injury depth option. Even if the Bruins don’t see a need for a starter, with late draft picks to burn, they could add another veteran forward just to improve their depth. In a buyer’s market, even one of the bigger names on the market could fit this role.
2) Left-shot depth defenseman
Similarly, each defensive pair is also well-balanced with a veteran and a youngster and a puck-mover with a physical threat. The Bruins usually line up with Zdeno Chara and Calder candidate McAvoy, Torey Krug with Carlo, and possession monster Grzelcyk with Kevan Miller. Now that he’s healthy, career-starter Adam McQuaid is the #7 defenseman in Boston – stellar depth already – and free agent addition Paul Postma is #8 – also impressive. The only problem is that both McQuaid and Postma are right-handed, as are the right-side rearguards on each pair. If injury strikes the left side, or if Grzelcyk’s play drops off, the B’s could use a left-shot option. O’Gara and Tommy Cross have seen NHL action and Zboril, Lauzon, and Johansson have shown NHL promise, but the Bruins can afford to add a more reliable player with regular play time this season if they so choose.
3) Top-six right wing with term
Don’t expect this. Long-term, there could be a hole on Krejci’s right side, as Backes did not work out last season and Spooner’s success thus far has come as a surprise. Senyshyn or Donato and an off-wing option like Bjork or Cehlarik could eventually take the job, but there are some who think the Bruins should instead try to buy one of the top wings on the trade market. However, there are two problems with this thought: 1) Sweeney seems unwilling to part with the pieces necessary to land such a player, and 2) the line chemistry implications could backfire. Spooner is an offense-first, top-nine player. If forced out of his current spot, Spooner’s only real option would be to supplant Nash on the third line. If that doesn’t work out, then there’s no role for him. An expensive trade could wind up pushing one of the Bruins’ top play-making forwards out of the lineup. Adding a top-six winger would be a luxury for Boston and Sweeney does not seem to be a guy keen on giving up hard-earned, home-grown prospects or picks for a luxury.
Super Bowl Preview: NHL Edition
In the biggest sporting event of the year tomorrow, the New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles will square off in Super Bowl LII in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Patriots are five-time Super Bowl winners, including two of the past three, while the Eagles are looking for their first ever title in the Super Bowl era. The teams and their histories could not be more different. The same cannot be said for their NHL counterparts, the Boston Bruins and Philadelphia Flyers, who have been rivals from as far back as when they were called the Boston Patriots in the AFL. So, while everyone else debates the ins and outs of the big game tomorrow, let’s take a look at the likely winner through the lens of the Pats’ and Eagles’ hockey-playing neighbors:
Scoring Offense – Advantage: Boston
When it comes to scoring, the Bruins are as dangerous as the Patriots. Boston has 160 goals for on the year, 8th in the league, but in only 49 games, giving them the 5th-best 3.27 goals per game rate. Led by Brad Marchand, who’s scoring .55 goals per game on his own this season, and his line mates Patrice Bergeron and David Pastrnak, who make up the league’s most dangerous line, the Bruins have great offensive potential. The Flyers meanwhile are just 18th in the league in scoring, with 147 goals, and putting up only 2.88 goals per game. However, Jakub Voracek and Claude Giroux are the two highest scoring players in the match-up, so don’t underestimate Philadelphia’s offensive potential.
Scoring Defense – Advantage: Boston
There’s no better team in the league at preventing goals than the Bruins, who are number one in goals against (120) and goals against per game (2.45). With Tuukka Rask playing Vezina-level hockey and Marchand, Bergeron, and 40-year-old Zdeno Chara (channeling his inner Tom Brady) among the top ten in the league in plus/minus, the Bruins are a force to reckon with on defense. The Flyers have struggled on defense in 2017-18, allowing 150 goals, tied for 19th in goals against. While the defense has been leaky at times, much of the fault lies with the underwhelming goalie duo of Brian Elliott and Michal Neuvirth.
Passing Offense – Advantage: Boston
Passing will be a vital factor in the big game, and the Bruins hold a slight edge. The Bruins have 271 assists on the year compared to the Flyers’ 264. While Voracek is undoubtedly the best passer in the contest, with 50 assists already on the year, Boston’s overall puck movement game is superior, due in no small part to sleek passers on the blue line in Charlie McAvoy and Torey Krug, and several of the best possession players in the league, including the top Corsi player so far in 2017-18, rookie rearguard Matt Grzelcyk.
Turnovers – Advantage: Boston
Turnovers can make or break a game and while both teams are in the red in turnover margin, the totals are not even close. The Bruins have recorded 442 takeaways so far this season, among the best in the league. However, they do give up the puck a fair amount with 465 recorded giveaways, producing a turnover margin of -23. Fortunately for Boston, the Flyers have given up the puck 462 times themselves, but have had no luck at all in taking it back, with only 302 recorded takeaways. That produces an ugly turnover margin of -160 and another big advantage for Boston.
Special Teams – Advantage: Boston
The Bruins’ 7th-ranked power play (21.71%) and 5th-ranked penalty kill (83.33%) make them one of, if not the best special teams squad in the NHL. They capitalize on the opposition’s penalties, but don’t let their own penalties cost them. That will be especially helpful against Philadelphia, who takes fewer penalties per game than Boston and is just behind the B’s in power play efficiency; their 21.39% success rate is good enough for 8th. However, Philly has struggled greatly short-handed, with the league’s third-worst penalty kill (73.89%).
Super Bowl Prediction: New England in a landslide
It’s been a few years since the Bruins were playing at a level anywhere near the dynastic Patriots, but in 2017-18 they are right there. Compared to the Flyers in all the important (and possible to compare) football statistics, it’s not even close. If the Patriots channel the Bruins, they should roll over the Eagles like they’ve rolled over the NFL for close to 20 years. One final note: the Pats have struggled to score early and have had to come from behind in each of their last two Super Bowl wins and even their AFC Championship win two weeks ago – the Bruins have the second-best points percentage in the NHL this season when allowing the first goal. It all lines up.
Atlantic Notes: Grzelcyk, Blashill, Karlsson
With Boston defenseman Adam McQuaid nearing a return to the lineup, the Bruins will soon have a decision to make on their back end. In order to make the roster and salary cap room to activate him off LTIR, the team will have to make a move. On the surface, it would appear that blueliner Matt Grzelcyk, who is on recall from the minors, would be the logical one to go back down but Fluto Shinzawa of the Boston Globe argues that the 23-year-old has done enough to not only stay on the NHL roster but stay in the lineup when McQuaid gets the green light to suit up and suggests that going with seven rearguards may be the way to go for the time being.
Fortunately for the Bruins, they have several waiver-exempt forwards on the active roster which gives them some options to choose from but with McQuaid nearly ready to play, they’ll have to make a decision in the very near future.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic:
- Although the Red Wings have come crashing down as of late, Ted Kulfan of the Detroit News believes it’s unlikely that a midseason coaching change is on the horizon. Instead, he expects the team to wait until after the season and make a decision on Jeff Blashill’s fate at that time as well as GM Ken Holland. Holland’s contract is up at the end of the season so it may make more sense to make a decision on both their futures at the same time once April rolls around.
- Senators defenseman Erik Karlsson is coming off a stellar performance on Saturday against Montreal and according to head coach Guy Boucher, he is right on target with their expectations when it comes to his recovery from offseason foot surgery. He told Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch that they felt Karlsson wouldn’t be fully recovered until around the holiday break given the nature of the procedure and the fact he basically jumped into games with no training camp and minimal practice. If Ottawa is to play themselves back into the postseason hunt, they’ll need their top blueliner at his best and it appears he’s getting closer to being just that.