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John Tavares

Free Agent Focus: New York Islanders

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Free agency is now a little less than a month away from opening up and there are quite a few prominent players set to hit the open market while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign.  Here is a breakdown of New York’s free agent situation.

Key Restricted Free Agents: F Brock Nelson – Though all eyes in New York are watching a certain unrestricted free agent (we’ll get to that later), the team still has plenty of work to do with some of their restricted players this summer. One of those is Nelson, who while frustratingly inconsistent at times still has four straight seasons with at least 19 goals.

It’s not that Nelson is an integral offensive piece on a team that has plenty of weapons up front, but scoring goals in the NHL is a daunting task and those who can do it at both even-strength and on the powerplay aren’t that easy to find. For any team, secondary scoring threats like Nelson get paid exceptionally well and are a tough group to hold on to long-term. Even with his slightly reduced totals this season, he’s still heading into the summer in a strong negotiating position as this is his final year before qualifying for UFA status. That means any term the Islanders give is buying out UFA years and sending the average annual value of the contract skyrocketing.

D Ryan Pulock – It’s not just up front that the team has some tough decisions, as Pulock broke out this season and could be looking for a long-term deal. The 23-year old defenseman finally got his full-time chance in the NHL and crushed it with 32 points in 68 games. That came with the best possession stats of any defenseman on the team, while still taking his fair share of defensive responsibilities.

Pulock is only now coming off his entry-level contract and is not yet eligible for salary arbitration, meaning the Islanders could certainly wait to lock him up long-term. That said, he’s so clearly a part of their future on the blue line that the team may want to commit right away.

Other RFAs: F Ross Johnston, F Alan Quine, F Shane Prince, D Brandon Davidson, D Kyle Burroughs, F Kyle Schempp, D Devon Toews

Key Unrestricted Free Agents: F John Tavares – It all starts and ends with Tavares, who is basically holding the free agent market hostage at the moment. Though John Carlson and others are fine prizes, no one is a franchise-changing player like Tavares in the prime of his career. The three-time 80-point man is coming off one of his most successful offensive seasons and he has proven time and again to be able to carry less talented wingers to big production.

Every team in the league would love to slide Tavares into their lineup, but it’s still unclear how many would really be able to put together the kind of financial package to entice him. Even that’s only if he ends up hitting the free agent market, something that may not even be likely at this point. Recently, when the Islanders fired their GM and head coach a new bout of speculation arose about Tavares’ connection with the franchise and intention to stick around. No one—except perhaps Lou Lamoriello, who could keep a secret from his son if he needed to—knows exactly where Tavares is headed. We’ll find out in just a few weeks.

D Calvin de Haan – Amazingly, Tavares isn’t the only important free agent the Islanders have. Though they already locked up Josh Bailey, de Haan and Thomas Hickey represent a good portion of their defense corps that is currently scheduled for the free agent market. The Islanders struggled in part this season keeping the puck out of their own net because of injuries to de Haan, who played just 33 games in total.

The 27-year old defenseman has shown flashes of brilliance over the years, like when he suited up for Canada in the 2017 IIHF World Championship, but has struggled to put it all together and become the top-pairing defenseman the team once hoped for. He won’t be paid like it this summer, but there will certainly be a market for him if he ends up leaving the Islanders.

Other UFAs: F Chris Wagner, F Nikolai Kulemin (headed to KHL), D Thomas Hickey, D Dennis Seidenberg, G Jaroslav Halak, D Kane Lafranchise, F Connor Jones, G Christopher Gibson, F Stephen Gionta, D Seth Helgeson, G Kristers Gudlevskis

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Poll: Will Lou Lamoriello Get John Tavares Re-Signed?

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Today the New York Islanders took the first step towards a “culture change.” Lou Lamoriello, well known for his strict player policies and organizational rules, relived GM Garth Snow and head coach Doug Weight of their responsibilities, assuming the general manager role himself and starting a search for the next coach. He said that the decision had nothing to do with the re-signing of John Tavares, and though Lamoriello is well known for sliding his way out of tough questions he might be telling the truth.

The fact is, the Islanders needed a change whether Tavares re-signs or not. The face of the franchise hasn’t been able to carry the organization to the promised land during his nine year career, despite his remarkable consistency on the ice. Now, Lamoriello will attempt to remove the idea of a single player at the front of an organization and that’s something Tavares will need to buy into. Instead, there will be plenty of uttering of the old phrase “it’s about the logo on the front, not the name on the back” and other team-first proverbs. How that sits with the 27-year old superstar, who was close with Weight and had been playing under Snow his entire career, isn’t certain.

What is certain is that Tavares could become arguably the most valuable unrestricted free agent the league has ever seen. In the middle of his prime and valuable in almost every facet of the game, Tavares is a direction-changing presence that could turn around a franchise immediately. Put him on a team that barely missed the playoffs and they will likely get in. Put him on a contender and they could become a powerhouse. Lamoriello knows that, and hasn’t been shy about signing his best players to long-term, big money contracts in the past. After all, this is the executive that signed Ilya Kovalchuk to a 17-year $102MM contract before the league rejected it, only to eventually get a 15-year $100MM deal approved with the Russian sniper.

So, will Lamoriello be able to negotiate a long-term deal with Tavares to keep him with New York for the next portion of his career? When we asked a similar question in January, before Lamoriello had been hired, more than 55% of our readers didn’t believe Tavares would end up back with the Islanders. Has that changed with the different management group? Or does the fact that he’s just a few weeks away from free agency make it even harder to sign on the dotted line? In just over three weeks Tavares will be able to start talking to other teams, and seeing what they have to offer him. That’s not a lot of time for Lamoriello to work with, but as he’s known for saying—”if you have time, use it.”

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Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Paul Stastny Interested In Returning To St. Louis

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Despite being shipped off at the trade deadline after four years with St. Louis, veteran center Paul Stastny said he would be open to returning to the St. Louis Blues during a radio interview on 590 The Fan in St. Louis.

Known to have loved his time in St. Louis, the 32-year-old supposedly thought long and hard before agreeing to waive his no-trade clause to go to the playoff-bound Winnipeg Jets. With the Blues struggling and unlikely to reach the playoffs, the team sent Stastny to the Jets for a 2018 first-round pick (the 29th overall pick), collegiate prospect Erik Foley, and a conditional fourth-round pick in 2020.

“Absolutely,” Stastny told Hockey Sense host Andy Strickland during the interview. “I don’t think I’ve closed the door on anything. I know it’s a business, getting older, you see it. I always keep everything open because you never know what’s going to happen.”

Stastny put up solid numbers with the Blues, posting 12 goals and 40 points in 63 games for the Blues before being dealt on Feb. 26. However, once with the Jets, he added another 13 points to his totals in 19 regular season games playing alongside Patrik Laine and Nikolaj Ehlers. Then in the playoffs, he took off, tallying six goals and 15 points in 17 games, leading the team to the Western Conference Finals.

While he enjoyed his time in Winnipeg and said it was worth it, Stastny also admitted it wasn’t easy to leave St. Louis.

“Trades are tough,” Stastny told Strickland. “I think when you’re so emotionally invested in a team and you think your an important part or your battling with the guys all year, you don’t expect that.”

While Winnipeg wouldn’t mind bringing Stastny back on a short-term deal, the Jets are going to be dealing with plenty of cap issues now they have to re-sign goaltender Connor Hellebuyck, defenseman Jacob Trouba and a number of other restricted free agents. St. Louis, however, who remains in need of help down the middle, could be a possible destination as well.

Of course with the need of centers throughout the league and Stastny likely being the second-best unrestricted free agent on the market (behind John Tavares), the veteran has quite a bit of leverage to score another big contract. While the Jets have indicated they would like to bring him back on a one or two-year deal to compete for a Stanley Cup, other teams would likely offer more years and more money. Would the Blues want to pay a big price to bring Stastny back? He just completed a four-year, $28MM deal. Desperate teams like the Montreal Canadiens might be willing to go quite high as they have the need and enough cap space to make it happen.

Metropolitan Notes: Tavares, Moore, Orpik

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With Lou Lamoriello now at the helm of the Islanders, his primary order of business is trying to get center John Tavares locked up and away from the open market next month.  In an appearance on TSN 1050 (audio link), TSN’s Bob McKenzie notes that talks between Lamoriello and Pat Brisson, the agent for Tavares, have occurred on a daily basis since the 75-year-old joined New York last month.

While McKenzie predicts that as things currently stand, the 27-year-old will likely make it to the post-draft interview period, he expects the Islanders to try to be active on the trade market this month in an effort to land another scoring winger to try to entice him to put pen to paper sooner than later.  Tavares is coming off the second-best scoring season of his career and if he doesn’t sign early, he will be highly sought after on the open market as franchise centers rarely make it to free agency.

More from the Metropolitan:

  • Devils blueliner John Moore is eligible to hit unrestricted free agency next month but if he had his way, he’d stay where he is now. Speaking with Abbey Mastracco of The Record, the 27-year-old stated that “I really like it here, my family likes it here. It’s a good team, good guys and I want to be here.”  Moore signed with New Jersey three years ago and played a big role on their back end in 2017-18, playing in a career-best 81 games while logging 20:01 per night, the most of his career.
  • Capitals defenseman Brooks Orpik suffered an injury to his index finger in the dying seconds of Game Two of the Stanley Cup Final on Wednesday night, notes TSN’s Frank Seravalli. He received a slash from Vegas center Erik Haula who received a major penalty and a game misconduct on the play but time had already expired.  Despite the injury, Orpik is expected to suit up in Game Three tonight.

Snapshots: Carlson, Ellis, Kovalchuk, Nash

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If John Tavares re-signs with the New York Islanders, Washington Capitals defenseman John Carlson would become the undisputed top free agent on the market this summer. However, Carlson’s priority is also to re-sign with his current team and the Capitals’ current Stanley Cup run may only sell him on staying even more. Plus, the estimated cap increase could make it easier for Washington to retain their blue line leader. Yet, Carlson is unlikely to ignore what the open market might offer in a world with no Tavares and a higher cap ceiling. The 28-year-old defenseman could command much more from another team than he’ll likely be able to get from the Caps. The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun believes that one of the top suitors will be none other than Carlson’s current opposition, the Vegas Golden Knights. Despite their unforeseeable success this season, the Knights’ defensive corps is far from an elite unit and is in need of a leader. Although they have been connected to Erik Karlsson in the past, LeBrun opines that the easier route for Vegas may be to simply sign Carlson. The need, the cap space, and the connection to GM George McPhee may be enough to entice Carlson to make the cross-country trek. If the Knights are able to win the Stanley Cup, it would add insult to injury to steal both a title and a top player from the Capitals.

  • LeBrun also had the inside scoop on another defenseman, the Nashville Predators’ Ryan Ellis. Although Ellis is not a free agent until 2019, LeBrun learned from Nashville GM David Poile that signing Ellis to an extension will be the Predators’ top priority this summer. Citing the loss of Ryan Suter years ago, LeBrun says that Poile is no longer willing to wait on re-signing his key players. However, the negotiations with Ellis may prove to be more difficult than anticipated. Ellis has been one of the best values in hockey over the last five years at a cap hit of just $2.5MM. No one will blame the offensive defenseman for seeking top dollar in his next deal and he is more likely to find that on the open market.
  • One player who may not be as concerned about money is Ilya Kovalchuk. TSN’s Darren Dreger reports that Kovalchuk’s main priority in returning to the NHL is to win the Stanley Cup. Kovalchuk is allegedly focused on finding a multi-year deal with a good fit. One possible suitor could be the New York Islanders, as Kovalchuk expressed to Dreger that he appreciated how then-GM Lou Lamoriello handled his sudden departure from New Jersey and shared that the two have maintained a positive relationship. Now that Lamoriello is in New York with more than enough cap space to sign Tavares and quite a few more, Kovalchuk could be a target. The KHL’s reigning leading scorer may sign with any team on July 1st.
  • One player who could be locked up before July 1st is Rick Nash. Boston Bruins GM Don Sweeney has expressed a desire to bring back several of his impending free agents, but has noted the reality that there is not enough space for all of them. The Bruins appear to have prioritized a new deal with their blockbuster trade deadline acquisition, as The Sports Hub’s Ty Anderson reports that Sweeney and Nash will continue negotiations next week. On the topic, Sweeney said “Rick indicated when he came to Boston that he was excited about the opportunity. He wants to win. He wants an opportunity to win. He felt badly, and certainly he’s not responsible for this, because he got injured.” What Nash feels badly about is likely both the drop-off in his play during the playoffs and the premature end to the Bruins season at the hands of the Tampa Bay Lightning in the second round. Nash suffered a concussion late in the regular season and never seemed to get back to 100%, but prior to his injury looked unstoppable on the Bruins’ second line with David Krejci and Jake DeBrusk. At the right price, it’s understandable why Sweeney and company would like to give Nash another chance to re-create that chemistry and help bring a Cup to Boston.

Poll: Impact Of The Estimated Cap Increase

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Earlier this week, Commissioner Gary Bettman and Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly spoke with the media about many different league topics. Perhaps the biggest news to come out of the press conference was Daly’s estimation of the salary cap for next season. Daly believes that the salary cap will fall somewhere between $78MM and $82MM, meaning that there will be a significant increase in the salary cap. The cap limit has increased by $2MM or less in each of the past three seasons, but the low point of the estimated range would already be a $3MM increase over the 2017-18 cap number. If it ends up near the top of the range, it will likely be the largest jump in the salary cap in league history.

Whatever the result, the cap increase will undoubtedly affect this off-season. Prior to Daly’s projection, teams like the Los Angeles Kings, Pittsburgh Penguins, Chicago Blackhawks, and Tampa Bay Lightning were going to face an immense cap crunch this summer and likely would have been forced to shed salary. Those teams can now breathe easier. However, teams on the lower end of the salary spectrum who don’t spend to the cap, such as the Carolina Hurricanes and Arizona Coyotes, will find it even harder to catch up in a market that that has lessened its grip on the stronger, higher payroll teams. With a higher cap comes salary inflation, which is another struggle for small market teams. The cap increase may also allow for some of the bigger talked-about trades and free agent movement – John Tavares, Erik Karlsson, Phil Kessel, ect. –  to happen. However, the flip side is that a salary cap increase gives teams incentive to add, but not subtract and could lessen the amount of total trades we see this summer.

What do you think? Is this potentially historic increase in the salary cap ceiling a good thing for the league?

Offseason May Bring Improvement, Danger For Montreal Canadiens

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The Montreal Canadiens head into this offseason with some clear holes on their roster. The most glaring of those needs is down the middle, where the team has lacked any sort of depth at center for many years. The team has tried Jonathan Drouin and Alex Galchenyuk in the role, but neither seem perfectly suited to handle big minutes at the position. Drouin will likely be tested there again, but many have suggested that the Canadiens go out and use their ample cap space to go free agent hunting. John Tavares is the obvious first choice if he reaches July 1st without a contract from the New York Islanders, but others like Paul Stastny, Joe Thornton, Tyler Bozak or even Derek Ryan could all bring some level of improvement to the team.

There is also the trade market, where names like Ryan O’Reilly, Sam Bennett, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and others are still floating around. The Canadiens will obviously look to upgrade, but they also have to be extremely careful in who they acquire, and how much—or perhaps more importantly how long—they pay them.

Even if they do nothing, Montreal will likely be a better team in 2018-19. Shea Weber and Carey Price should return with some modicum of health, while Drouin will have a full year of experience under the spotlight. Victor Mete, Noah Juulsen, Nikita Scherbak and Artturi Lekhonen could all take steps forward to become impact players, and the team owns the third-overall pick in this year’s draft. There’s no guarantee that a player like Filip Zadina would be able to step right into the NHL and contribute, but the Canadiens will obviously be able to add an elite prospect to the mix. The temptation of supplementing these players with some free agent help will be there, but it could just as easily backfire for the team.

Last summer the Canadiens handed out a five-year deal to Karl Alzner who, while not a disaster on the ice, failed to live up to some lofty expectations. While logging more than 20 minutes a night, Alzner wasn’t a shutdown defensive presence like many had hoped and now looks slightly overpaid at $4.6MM. Drouin didn’t quite live up to expectations either, though there is no reason to doubt that he has another gear ready for next season.

If anything can be learned from the Alzner contract, it’s that the Canadiens have to be careful not to fall into the trap of paying the best player available like he’s the best player at the position. Last year’s free agent market was remarkably thin, and while this season looks to have a better group, any of the names mentioned above are far from sure things. Even Thornton, who will go down as one of the league’s all-time great setup men, isn’t the same first-line center he once was.

Montreal heads into next season with plenty of cap room, but with Price’s eight-year $84MM extension just kicking off they must be extremely careful with their finances. With Weber’s long-term deal still on the books and eventual extensions due to a handful of young players, there is a clear danger of putting the team in a cap squeeze by handing out multiple big-money contracts. Even Tavares, who will likely command something between $10-12MM per season, could potentially put the Canadiens in a tough spot despite his obvious skills. Every team that has two highly paid superstars ends up shedding young talent to keep the salary structure balanced, and if Tavares and Price aren’t enough to lead the team to victory they could be in trouble.

Next season’s salary cap is expected to be somewhere between $78-82MM, giving the Canadiens somewhere around $17MM in cap space to spend this summer. That’s enough to be players in the market, but they shouldn’t be going all-in without some careful consideration. Otherwise they could find themselves in an even worse situation at this time next year, even if the results on the ice improve in the short-term.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Teams Worrying John Tavares Could Stay With Islanders

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The addition of Lou Lamoriello to the New York Islanders has quickly changed the free agency landscape. Suddenly, teams that have been drooling over the chance to sign star center John Tavares are beginning to question whether it’s just a dream.

Tavares, who is by far the top-rated unrestricted free agent in this summer’s free agent class, is coming off one of his strongest seasons in his career as he posted 37 goals and 84 points in a full 82-game season despite the team’s struggles throughout the season, which resulted in not making the playoffs for a second straight year. His best season came in 2014-15 when he had 38 goals and 86 points, so the 27-year-old is at the top of his game.

Regardless, he has refrained from signing or even mentioning signing an extension during the season and has said he would like to test the free agent market. Between the team’s troubles of finding a permanent home (their new arena is still years away) and the team’s inability to provide a stable winning environment, many people believe that Tavares, known to be a very loyal player, was ready to move on.

The Toronto Sun’s Steve Simmons writes that several teams, however, are already getting the impression that Tavares might re-sign with Lamoriello and the Islanders before free agency even starts on July 1. The Tavares camp isn’t acting like they will be free agents, according to Simmons, with the phrase “if” as in “if we’re available.” To make matters worse for these teams, Lamoriello is known for two key facts — credibility and silence. Lamoriello has a history of winning, which Tavares would appreciate and he also doesn’t tip his hand, so no one really knows what he is doing behind the scenes.

It should be noted that rarely does a franchise free agent ever change hands. Steven Stamkos did not leave Tampa Bay after many believed he was. The Sedin twins never left Vancouver. Regardless, the addition of Lamoriello into the free agent mix will only make things more interesting on July 1.

 

Snapshots: Canadiens’ Center Search, Huska, Carrier

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With the Montreal Canadiens looking to fill their holes at the center position this offseason and little immediate value at that position with their No. 3 pick in the 2018 draft, Montreal could find themselves looking long and hard to find a quality center to fit into their lineup this offseason. Assuming they don’t get star John Tavares to bite on July 1, the team might have no choice but to make a deal for a center to fill their need.

The Athletic’s Arpon Basu (subscription required) writes that there are two legitimate possibilities for the Canadiens on the trade market, including Ryan O’Reilly of the Buffalo Sabres and Elias Lindholm of the Carolina Hurricanes. The scribe writes that after recent end-0f-the-season comments he made about being more accepting of losing, O’Reilly is trying to force his way out of Buffalo and might be a perfect fit in Montreal. While he would likely make a better No. 2 center, O’Reilly is very talented and the team might be able to package together a combination of picks and young forwards to take on O’Reilly’s contract of $7.5MM over the next five years. The 27-year-old still put up some of the best numbers in his career this year with 24 goals and 61 points.

With the Carolina Hurricanes open for business, Lindholm might be a player the Canadiens take a chance on. The restricted free agent has had a promising start to his career, but also an inconsistent one, but likely would get a big payday after a 16-goal, 44-point season. If Carolina would like to avoid handing Lindholm a big contract, Montreal might be able to step in and give them an alternative as a combination of Lindholm and Jonathan Drouin would give them a solid young core up the middle for years.

  • Eric Francis of the Calgary Sun writes that the Calgary Flames are on the verge of announcing their assistant coaches that will aid new head coach Bill Peters this season after the team let assistants Paul Jerrard and Dave Cameron go when they fired Glen Gulutzan on April 17. While he didn’t have any specifics other than the announcement will come some time next week, Francis did speculate that the team might be leaning towards promoting Stockton Heat head coach Ryan Huska.
  • The Vegas Golden Knights are likely to get one of their players back from injury for the Stanley Cup Finals as William Carrier practiced today in a non-contact jersey, according to the Las Vegas Review-Journal’s David Schoen. In fact, Schoen writes that head coach Gerard Gallant announced that he expects Carrier to be available for the Stanley Cup Finals. Carrier didn’t play in the Western Conference Finals due to an undisclosed injury has been a key member of the team’s fourth line.

Sharks Nearing Long-Term Extension With Evander Kane

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The San Jose Sharks were clearly happy enough with the play of trade deadline acquisition Evander Kane that they are willing to do whatever it takes to bring him back, which appears to be giving him extensive term and salary and surrendering their first-round draft pick in 2019. Sportsnet’s Irfaan Gaffar reports that the two sides are closing in on a long-term extension, the terms of which appear to be in the seven-year, $49MM range. Per the terms of their trade with the Buffalo Sabres, if Kane does re-sign in San Jose than the second-round pick exchanged in the deal will be elevated to a first-rounder.

It is certainly understandable why the Sharks would want to bring back Kane. The 26-year-old power forward is coming off arguably the best season of his career and certainly his best campaign since being traded to Buffalo from the Winnipeg Jets in 2015. Kane finished the year with 29 goals and 54 points and nine of those goals along with five assists came during the 17-game span that he spent in San Jose to close out the regular season. Kane was the Sharks’ best player during the stretch run and continued to play well in his first ever playoff appearance, notching four goals and an assist in nine games while battling injury. If Kane keeps up that level of play in San Jose, he could be a perennial 30-goal scorer and the type of finisher that the team has sorely lacked outside of Logan Couture. 

Nevertheless, some will balk at the cost associated with re-signing Kane, especially after this report. Giving up a first-round pick has already scared away some fans and analysts alike when the idea of the Sharks bringing back Kane first came up. However, this rumored term and salary is also likely to turn more than a few heads. Though undeniably talented, Kane has been able to put together a complete star-caliber season just twice in his career and brings both off-ice issues and on-ice consistency and effort concerns. Granted, he appeared to fit well and play hard in San Jose, but that is not guaranteed to continue and especially not over seven years or so. The Sharks have enough cap space this season to target some of the biggest names on the market and enough talent to attract those players as well, but some will speculate that an extension for Kane of this amount would take them out of the running for a John Tavares or John Carlson, which could also upset fans and eliminate a major opportunity for San Jose.

However, the Sharks acquired Kane primarily for this year’s playoff run and he performed beyond expectations for a very fair price – Danny O’Regan, a second-rounder, and a fourth-rounder. Even if that pick becomes a first-round selection next year, it still isn’t an extreme over-payment by the Sharks given what they got out of Kane. San Jose now has exclusive right to negotiate with Kane, something they don’t have with the likes of Tavares and Carlson and something that they’ll lose come July 1st. If the team feels that an extension based on his strong trial run is the right move and the best way to use the bulk of their cap space, then doing what it takes to keep Kane, a top five free agent, from hitting the market makes sense. There is absolutely risk associated with a decision of this reported magnitude, but it could pay off for GM Doug Wilson and the Sharks.

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