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Andrei Svechnikov

Poll: Who Will Be The Second-Overall Pick In 2018?

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With just a handful of games remaining in the 2017-18 season, fans of half the league are already looking forward to the first big date on the offseason calendar. The 2018 NHL Entry Draft will start on June 22nd in Dallas, where Rasmus Dahlin looks to be the first name off the board. The Swedish defenseman is almost unanimously at the top of the rankings at this point, after showing off his huge potential by logging big minutes in the SHL, dominating the World Juniors and even suiting up for his country in the recent Olympics.

But after Dahlin, the decision becomes much tougher. For many months the leading theory was that Andrei Svechnikov, the dominant scoring Russian winger would be the second-overall pick, until he suffered an injury and then was forgettable at the World Juniors. Instead, many eyes turned to Filip Zadina who starred at the tournament and continued to wow audiences in the QMJHL on his way to a 44-goal season and a place on many of the league leaderboards. The 18-year old Czech forward can score from just about anywhere in the offensive zone, and does it with enough flair that everyone in the building takes notice.

Another player stood out in the World Junior tournament though, and that was Brady Tkachuk out of Boston University. Tkachuk had already been quietly climbing the draft boards, showing that he perhaps had just as much talent as his older brother—Calgary Flames forward Matthew Tkachuk—when he put up nine points in seven games and was clearly one of the most dangerous players for the dynamic Team USA. Tkachuk plays a heavy game and is a well-rounded talent that could now go as high as #2 overall, just as TSN’s Craig Button ranked him on his latest board.

Button isn’t alone in thinking Tkachuk has a chance to go second, but he certainly isn’t the consensus. That’s because there simply isn’t one, with other players like Adam Boqvist and Quinn Hughes even getting some love at the top of draft boards around the hockey world. There are several high-end players in this draft who could be franchise-altering talents, and the second-overall pick is still very much undecided. It might be determined by which team is selected in the draft lottery, and moves up (or down) to select right after Dahlin is off the board.

Who do you think will walk up to the podium after hearing his name second at this year’s draft? Will it be one of the trio of forwards, or a second defenseman? Will Dahlin be knocked off his perch entirely, and end up as a (excellent) consolation prize after someone decides they need help up front instead? Cast your vote down below, and be sure to explain your selection in the comment section.

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Canadian Juniors Could Change Approach To Foreign Goalies

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In 2013, the Canadian Hockey League (CHL), the overarching body in major junior hockey that governs the Ontario Hockey League (OHL), Western Hockey League (WHL), and Quebec Major Junior Hockey League (QMJHL), decided to ban teams from drafting European goalies. The CHL holds an annual Import Draft in which all 60 teams across the three leagues are given two chances to draft foreign talent in an attempt to fill their two import slots on the roster for the following season. Sometimes the players who are drafted come over and other times they don’t. However, five years ago, CHL president David Branch and company decided to no longer take the risk of bringing in foreign keeper who could then in turn block young North American goalies by not allowing teams to select them in the import draft. While the idea was to protect the development and value of homegrown products, the result was a weaker product across the CHL and a more difficult time for their business partners in the NHL to evaluate foreign goalies.

In fairness, the decision was made after a stretch of dominant play by European keepers at the major junior level. In 2010-11, the top save percentage in both the OHL and QMJHL belonged to imports: Petr Mrazek and Christopher Gibson. Not long before, Michal Neuvirth was one of the OHL’s best as well. In the mid-2000’s, Ondrej Pavelec controlled the QMJHL, leading the league in goals against average in back-to-back seasons among other accomplishments, and is arguably still the league’s best goaltender in history.

This isn’t to say that Canadian and American goalies didn’t also flourish at that time as well, which calls the decision back into question. This was always a concern of quality over quantity, as the vast majority of teams still employed a North American starter and often a local backup or two as well. The CHL may have been concerned with the talent of some foreign prospects overshadowing Canada’s best, but they could never have honestly argued there was a lack of opportunity due to imported players. Top 2018 draft-eligible CHL prospects Andrei Svechnikov and Filip Zadina are both imports, yet they would never ban forwards.

Nevertheless, the CHL made a decision which clearly hurt their own competition level by excluding some of the top junior-level goaltending talent in the world without any evidence that it was truly hurting their domestic counterparts. Now, years later, the league is rethinking that decision. John Matisz of the Toronto Sun reports that the league is considering lifting the ban on foreign goalies, and for good reason. The ban has simply made it harder for NHL team to evaluate European keepers – with foreign leagues often dominated by older, experienced players, while the top young skaters come overseas – but hasn’t stopped them from being drafted into the pros at the same rate as CHL goalies. Meanwhile, top prospects such as Ukko-Pekka Luukonen (Buffalo), Filip Gustavsson (Ottawa), and 2018-eligible Jakub Skarek still reside overseas, but could surely benefit nearly any team in the CHL. The major juniors face little risk that a reversal would harm them in any way.

Interesting enough though, it may still be in European goalies’ best interests to remain in Europe and for NHL teams to focus on those who stay and face older, professional talent. The list of foreign goaltenders who played major junior in Canada and remain in the NHL – Mrazek, Neuvirth, Pavelec, Peter Budaj, Philipp Grubauer, Jaroslav Halak, Anton Khudobin, Marek Langhamer, Robin Lehner, and the most recent CHL import star, Oscar Dansk – all have one thing in common: they aren’t bona fide starters. Meanwhile, the likes of Sergei Bobrovsky, Henrik Lundqvist, Pekka Rinne, Tuukka Rask, and Andrei Vasilevskiy avoided North America until turning pro, and it worked out much better for them. With a new class of European goalies likely to join the CHL sooner rather than later, we’ll see if that trend continues.

The Odds Of Drafting A Superstar And The 2018 NHL Draft

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Earlier this week, The Athletic’s Tyler Dellow went to work trying to figure out how the Ottawa Senators could maximize their trade return (subscription required) for Erik Karlsson, should the team decide to move the all-world defenseman prior to the NHL Trade Deadline on February 26th or at least before the 2018 NHL Entry Draft on June 22nd. Dellow surmised that in order to get anywhere near a fair return for Karlsson, Ottawa would need to acquire draft picks that could give them the best chance of finding a “franchise cornerstone” to replace him. The best-case-scenario for the Sens would obviously be to land the #1 overall pick in the lottery and the opportunity to draft the consensus top pick, Karlsson clone Rasmus Dahlin – a scenario that would not even require moving Karlsson. However, with the Arizona Coyotes and Buffalo Sabres likely having better lottery odds and another 12 teams having a chance at the top pick as well, its unlikely that the Senators choose first overall. Dahlin’s generational talent also means the lucky team that lands #1 isn’t moving it, even for Karlsson. So what then is the chance of finding a superstar in the draft? Dellow’s analysis produced these results:

  • First pick: 90 percent,
  • Second pick: 60 percent
  • Third or Fourth pick: 15 percent
  • Picks 5-20: 5 percent
  • Picks 21-30: 2 percent
  • Picks 31-60: 1 percent
  • Picks 61+:  .07 percent

While there is a considerable drop-off from the first pick to the second and the second to the third, it’s clear that picks #2 and #3 still hold immense value. Dellow goes on to describe the infrequency with which those picks are moved, citing Alexei Yashin-for-Jason Spezza and the drafting of Henrik and Daniel Sedin are rare recent examples. Dellow’s thesis continues that the current Vancouver Canucks could be a rare team willing to part with a high pick, if it meant landing Karlsson.

However what if Karlsson isn’t traded by the Draft – a situation that is far more likely than the media would make it out to be – would the normally untouchable top three picks be back off the table? Obviously, the results of the draft lottery matter immensely and the #1 pick will surely not be moved this year. More likely than not, #2 is going nowhere as well. Yet, the status of the 2018 draft class leads to much intrigue over the #3 pick, which historically has a 15% chance of landing a superstar. Unlike past years, there is no consensus second-best player in 2018. In some order, Nico Hischier and Nolan Patrick were going 1-2 in 2017, as were Auston Matthews and Patrik Laine in 2016, and no one was going right behind Connor McDavid other than Jack Eichel in 2015. This year’s crop offers a situation unlike the last few seasons, wherein Dahlin is guaranteed to go first overall – and will be off the draft board of everyone but the lottery winner before the draft even begins – but the following picks are unpredictable. At #2, it could be Russian sniper Andrei Svechnikov, sleek Czech forward Filip Zadina, big, skilled Americans Brady Tkachuk or Oliver Wahlstrom, or a D-needy team with the second pick could even go off the board for a defenseman.

The decision on the second overall pick in 2018 will undeniably result in the top player on many teams’ board being selected, but the top player on many other teams’ board falling to #3. If that team at third overall was hoping to take the player selected at #2, now things could get interesting. According to Dellow’s results, the team at #3 has now lost a 45% chance of finding their next franchise player, but could trade out of the pick and still end up with one (or more) top 20 pick(s), each with a 5% chance of becoming a star, as well as possibly an established pick or player. If you put trust into a model like Dellow’s, a deal like this becomes much more about math and odds than simply taking the risk of trading back out of disappointment with the draft order.

Going back to the Karlsson-to-Vancouver hypothetical, imagine that the Canucks land the #3 overall pick while the Senators have a pick in the 5-20 range, either by the lottery or an additional pick from an upcoming trade. Vancouver hypothetically wanted Zadina, who went #2, while the top player on Ottawa’s board was Tkachuk (or maybe a defenseman like Adam Boqvist). Vancouver could, as Dellow proposes, offer the Sens the third pick – and a 15% chance at a star – and a prospect like Olli Juolevi, the fifth overall pick in 2016 – who holds a 5% chance of becoming a star himself – as part of a larger package for Karlsson and a first. Ottawa nets a 20% chance of adding a cornerstone player, including at least one potential replacement on the blue line, and Vancouver holds onto a 5% chance of finding a star of their own with the later first rounder. The 10% loss for Vancouver is more than made up by the gain of a bona fide star in Karlsson. Could a deal like this happen? For sure. Will it? Probably not, but Dellow’s analysis of draft pick values and a seemingly volatile draft board in 2018 helps to illuminate the possibilities of some fascinating, unprecedented deals early on at the 2018 Draft.

Coyotes Notes: Perlini, Richardson, Draft Options

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While many would be quick to call Clayton Keller the Arizona Coyotes’ best young player, his teammate has quietly taken up the mantle of being the franchise’s all-time best young goal-scorer. AZSports’ Craig Morgan noted last night that Brendan Perlini’s 28th career goal in his 100th NHL game is most among ’Yotes alums in their first 100 games. Perlini passed up Peter Mueller, who had 27 in 100, a player who burned bright, but burned out young and was out of the NHL after his first five seasons. Arizona surely hopes that Perlini has more longevity and would especially be excited if he kept up his current level of play, having scored a goal in four straight games. Meanwhile, Keller surely has his eye on soon taking Perlini’s title; the 19-year-old has 14 goals through his first 53 games, so he’ll have to pick up the pace this season into next season.

  • Morgan was also the first to announce that Brad Richardson would not return to last night’s game after suffering an upper-body injury. There has been no update on Richardson’s status yet, but it would be no surprise if the veteran forward is out of the lineup for a substantial amount of time yet again. Richardson has had a tough go of it lately, missing six games due to injury this year after missing a whopping 66 games last year. Richardson has also struggled to produce with only nine points through 44 games. Nevertheless, the Coyotes are surely hoping that Richardson makes a speedy recovery with the NHL Trade Deadline fast approaching. With so few pending unrestricted free agents on the roster – Richardson, Antti Raanta, Luke Schenn, Zac Rinaldo – GM John Chayka would like to be able to move out as many as possible, unless his plan is make some larger deals involving his plethora of younger players.
  • In reality, the 2017-18 has long been over for the Coyotes and their next event of note is the 2018 NHL Entry Draft. Though the lottery could throw a wrench in their plans, Arizona is in the best position of any team to land the prize of the draft, Swedish phenom Rasmus Dahlin. TSN’s Bob McKenzie released his Mid-Season Draft Rankings today, in which he calls this the “Rasmus Dahlin draft” and makes of note of consensus that no player has a chance to go first overall besides the dynamic defenseman. With some doubt over the future of All-Star Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Chayka would like nothing more than to select a potential replacement in Dahlin. At the very least, the worst record in the NHL will guarantee the Coyotes a top-four pick and, as McKenzie specifies, one of the trio of forwards that make up the next tier of elite prospects behind Dahlin – Andrei Svechnikov, Filip Zadina, and Brady Tkachuk.

Snapshots: Prospects, Olympics, Savard

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The NHL’s Central Scouting has released their midterm rankings for North American and International skaters, with Andrei Svechnikov and Rasmus Dahlin leading the way respectively. Dahlin is about as locked in as a prospect can be for the first-overall selection, but several others will be battling for the number two spot. Svechnikov, Filip Zadina, Adam Boqvist and Brady Tkachuk are all top options who could be in the top three selections, and should b considered blue chip pieces for whoever ends up with them.

Interestingly, players like Ryan Merkley (#21 among North American skaters) and Bode Wilde (#22) find themselves relatively far down the list despite their previous top-10 projections. Whether that has more to do with their own play slipping this season or the influx of talent throughout the draft class is unclear, but it should excite even teams in the playoff picture with the prospect of adding an impact player on defense.

  • Many of the Olympic rosters have now been released, with young players like Dahlin, Miro Heiskanen and Eeli Tolvanen dominating the headlines for Sweden and Finland. Rosters for the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, Switzerland and host Korea are available on the IIHF website. Igor Eronko of Sport-Express reports that the Olympic Athletes from Russia squad will release their roster on Thursday, which should be one of the powerhouses of the tournament.
  • Marc Savard has officially announced his retirement, exactly seven years after his last game in the NHL. The exquisite playmaker was forced from the game due to concussion problems, but was still technically under contract through last season. His career ended in 2011 with the Bruins after 807 games, in which he registered 706 points including seasons of 97 and 96. According to Chris Lomon of the NHLPA, Savard is looking to move up the coaching ranks after spending some time behind the bench of his sons’ triple-A teams.

Morning Notes: Buffalo, Prospects, Offside

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After another disappointing loss at the hands of the Winnipeg Jets last night, the Buffalo Sabres were back on the ice today trying to right the ship. Unfortunately, things didn’t go so smoothly. According to Amy Moritz of the Buffalo News, Zach Bogosian was helped off the ice unable to put weight on his left leg.

Not only that, but tempers appear to be flaring as according to Bill Hoppe of Buffalo Hockey Beat, Evander Kane and Justin Falk got into a shoving match with the latter calling the former “selfish.” Things haven’t gone according to plan for the Sabres this year, who are now in the midst of a five-game losing streak and just three points ahead of the Arizona Coyotes for last place in the NHL.

  • ISS Hockey and Jeff Marek of Sportsnet each released their new draft rankings today, with both agreeing that Rasmus Dahlin has solidified his position as the no-doubt first-overall pick in June’s draft. After that though, the lists diverge with Marek leaving Andrei Svechnikov in the second spot while ISS has moved Brady Tkachuk into that position. The remaining top 10 is a mixed bag, and should make for an incredibly interesting draft day with teams having very different boards.
  • While the entire league is wondering whether the current offside review process will stay the same after another “skate blade incident” for the Edmonton Oilers last night, Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic reports that NHL Director of Hockey Operations Colin Campbell will bring up the issue once again at the GM meetings in March. There is a growing belief that the rule should be changed to that of a endzone-type plane that extends straight up, so that a player’s skate doesn’t necessarily need to be touching the ice to be onside.

Poll: Who Will Win Gold At The World Juniors?

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With the NHL about to head into its Christmas shutdown—no games are scheduled from December 24-26th—die hard hockey fans will need to look elsewhere for their frozen fix. The answer to that, unless you are a big Spengler Cup fan, is obvious. The World Junior Championship begins preliminary round play on December 26th with a matchup between Russia and the Czech Republic at 11:00am central. That’s followed by four more games that day and the rest of the tournament that stretches until January 5th.

It’s easy to see why our readers are overwhelmingly more interested in the junior tournament than the upcoming Olympics, after the NHL pulled out of competition. The interesting part is how popular the U20 competition has become regardless of other international events. For prospect junkies, and patriotic puck lovers there’s just nothing better than seeing (mostly) amateur athletes compete for their country and show why they’ll be the next star of the NHL. The tournament can be used as a coming out party where potential flourishes, or a harsh spotlight that uncovers flaws previously unnoticed.

Kieffer BellowsThe United States, reigning champions of the tournament, are bringing back an exceptionally talented squad and should be in the running for the medal round once again. Returnees like Kieffer Bellows and Adam Fox are expected to be among the tournament leaders for their respective positions, and there are exciting young prospects making their first appearance.

Canada, as always, can never be overlooked. After losing to the USA in the gold medal game a year ago, the team has gone with almost an entire team of 19-year old players, cutting some surprising names in the process. While there is a distinct lack of name recognition on the usually star-studded Canadian squad, it is a chance for some less heralded prospects to show that they deserve to be household names.

Sweden is as usual strong defensively, boasting some of the strongest skaters in the tournament on their blueline. Timothy Liljegren will certainly garner a lot of attention, as will potential 2018 first-overall pick Rasmus Dahlin. They’re not to be overlooked up front though, as current SHL scoring leader Elias Pettersson will show exactly why he went fifth-overall to Vancouver last June.

Finland will look to bounce back after an incredibly poor performance last season that saw the coaching staff fired mid-tournament. After taking home gold in 2016, there is a lot to like about the 2018 squad. Eeli Tolvanen, one of the biggest stories of the KHL season, is a favorite to lead the tournament in scoring, while their defense corps led by players like Miro Heiskanen and Olli Juolevi can stand with anyone.

Russia, of course, can never be completely taken out of the running, but haven’t won a gold medal since 2011. Their team has a ton of relative unknowns to North American viewers, but will have one name everyone will be especially intrigued by. Andrei Svechnikov, another potential first-overall selection in 2018, is considered by many already ready to make the jump to professional hockey. While this tournament isn’t the pros, it certainly is the highest level he’ll have ever played.

So who do you think will take home gold? Will it be one of the favorites, or will one of the lesser-known teams find lightning in a bottle and ride it all the way? Who will be the tournament MVP? Discuss all that and more after voting below.

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More NHL Prospects Named To Russian World Junior Roster

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Team Russia had already announced much of their preliminary roster for the World Junior Championships later this month, but had avoided any players currently in North America. Today they added ten names from various North American leagues to the roster, including several already drafted by NHL organizations. According to Igor Eronko of Sport-Express, the following ten are part of the preliminary roster, which will be whittled down before the tournament starts on December 26th.

F Klim Kostin (STL)
F Andrei Svechnikov (2018 eligible)
F German Rubtsov (PHI)
F Vitaly Abramov (CBJ)
F Dmitry Sokolov (MIN)
F Alexei Lipanov (TBL)

D Alexander Alexeyev (2018 eligible)
D Artyom Minulin (undrafted in 2017)
D Dmitri Samorukov (EDM)

G Mikhail Berdin (WPG)

While basically all of these names are very intriguing prospects for their respective clubs, Minulin might be one to watch for the entire league. Expected to go somewhere in the middle rounds in the 2017 draft, his name wasn’t called by any NHL team. The 6’2″ risk-taking defenseman put up 50 points in 70 games last year for the Swift Current Broncos, and returned to the team this season for the third time. It’s not clear why he wasn’t drafted, as he was actually ranked 58th by the NHL’s Central Scouting among North American skaters.

Svechnikov of course will also have all eyes on him at the tournament, as he’ll go head-to-head with the other potential first-overall picks. Rasmus Dahlin—the prospective favorite at the top of draft boards—will be representing Sweden and likely logging big minutes, making a matchup between the two clubs all the more interesting.

Snapshots: Hakstol, Svechnikov, Backup Goaltenders

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The Philadelphia Flyers have now lost 10 games in a row, and find themselves at the bottom of the Metropolitan Division. With just eight wins and 23 points on the year, they sit only ahead of Buffalo and Arizona in the overall standings and are nearly at a breaking point in terms of playoff contention. Despite all that the team is not considering a coaching change, as Sam Carchidi of the Philadelphia Inquirer reports. GM Ron Hextall told Carchidi that Dave Hakstol would be coaching for the rest of the season “and beyond,” ending any speculation that he may be on the chopping block.

This is Hakstol’s third season as head coach of the Flyers, and after getting knocked out in the first round in 2015-16 the team missed the playoffs entirely last year. They were lucky enough to move up in the draft lottery and get the chance to draft Nolan Patrick, but have once again been a disappointing team this year. Brian Elliott, brought in to try and stabilize the goaltending situation has been less than what was hoped for and the team has scored just 70 goals all season. Whatever Hextall says, heat from the Philadelphia fan base will continue if they can’t turn their streak around soon.

  • As the World Junior tournament approaches—Canada and the USA will release their potential rosters over the next couple of days—Andrei Svechnikov is about to get back onto the ice. A potential first-overall pick in 2018, Svechnikov has missed the last six weeks with a hand injury. Bob McKenzie of TSN reports that he’s expected back in the Barrie Colts lineup on Friday, and will almost certainly be named to the Russian roster soon after that. Team Russia released a list of players that will compete for the final roster, but only included those playing in Russia at the moment. Those skating in North America will still be added over the next week.
  • The Edmonton Oilers are actively looking for a backup goaltender according to Frank Seravalli of TSN, and the scribe details potential options around the league. With Cam Talbot on the shelf for at least two more weeks and Laurent Brossoit struggling in the starting role, the Oilers could be forced to make a move or watch their playoff chances slip away. Chad Johnson, a player who the Buffalo Sabres have already received interest in, tops the list and could be an option for the Oilers over the next few days. There’s no guarantee he’d be an upgrade though, as Johnson has struggled this season in his return to Buffalo.

Snapshots: OHL, Sedlak, Gudbranson, Gaborik

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The Ontario Hockey League has always been one of the premiere talent factories for the NHL, churning out elite prospects every season. Like every year, the talented folks over at OHL Prospects have put together a consensus ranking of the 2018 draft eligible players, with contributions from various scouting gurus like Mike Morreale (NHL.com), Scott Wheeler (The Athletic) and Dan Stewart (Future Considerations).

In this ranking of OHL prospects—like any other you’ll find—Andrei Svechnikov tops the list. He was first on all 22 contributing scouts’ lists, with several implying that he could jump right to the NHL already. Svechnikov had 14 points in 10 games for the Barrie Colts before injuring his hand, should return to the lineup at some point in mid-to-late December. He’s a near lock to go in the top three selections next June.

  • The Columbus Blue Jackets have activated Lukas Sedlak from injured reserve, giving them some more depth at center. The Blue Jackets have used Nick Foligno in the middle for much of this season, but could move him back to the wing where he is much more experienced now that they have another healthy body. The team could still obviously use another center, but have several options with how to deploy their lineup.
  • Jason Brough of TSN has heard that the Florida Panthers have at least some interest still in Erik Gudbranson, even though we had previously heard otherwise. Brough also reports that “a few other teams” have interest in the Vancouver Canucks’ defenseman which would mesh with the report that the Toronto Maple Leafs have poked around. Gudbranson will be an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season.
  • Marian Gaborik is nearing a return for the Los Angeles Kings, and head coach John Stevens spoke with Jon Rosen of LA Kings Insider on the progression of the 35-year old sniper. The Kings continue to lead the Pacific Division, and it will be interesting to see if Gaborik can find a role on the team after several years of sub-par performance.

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