Ottawa Senators Will Keep Their 2018 First-Round Pick
Another day, another loss for the Ottawa Senators. With a 13.5 percent chance to nab the No. 1 overall pick Saturday night and elite defenseman Rasmus Dahlin, the team didn’t get him. Nor did they win the No. 2 spot or even the No. 3. Instead, the Senators dropped two spots and will pick with the No. 4 pick.
Regardless, Ottawa general manager Pierre Dorion, who has the option of sending either their 2018 or their 2019 first-rounder to the Colorado Avalanche as part of the Matt Duchene trade, said last night that the team will keep their pick this year and the team will trade their 2019 unprotected first-rounder to the Avalanche, according to Ottawa Sun’s Bruce Garrioch. There had been talk several months ago that Ottawa was considering moving this pick if it was outside the top-three in case the team struggled again next year and with an unprotected pick in 2019, the team could lose the potential first-overall pick. However, with the chance to draft this year in the top five, the first time the team has had that chance since 2001, they don’t want to pass it up.
“We’re going to keep the pick,” Dorion said. “There’s no denying that we think that player we’re going to take at No. 4 is someone that’s going to be able to help us maybe as soon as next year … I think it will make us a better hockey team and we’re going to worry about 2019.”
The Senators are hoping to return to the success the team had in the 2016-17 season when the team got into the Eastern Conference Finals before losing to the eventual Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh Penguins. Garrioch writes the team will have multiple options at No. 4, including getting one of the three coveted wingers in the draft including Barrie Colts’ Andrei Svechnikov, Halifax Moosehead’s Filip Zadina, and Boston University’s Brady Tkachuk.
Buffalo Wins The 2018 Draft Lottery; Will Select First Overall
The Buffalo Sabres have won the Rasmus Dahlin sweepstakes. Buffalo has one of the most hockey-rabid fan bases in the entire league and their faith has been rewarded with the chance to plant a franchise player on the blue line. After years of suffering with bottom of the standings finishes and placing second in the Connor McDavid race, the Sabres finally have the top choice.
Buffalo’s draw was revealed during the second period intermission of Game Two of the Vegas Golden Knights-San Jose Sharks series, after picks #4-#15 had been revealed earlier in the night. Vaulting their way into the top three was Carolina, who had a 70% chance of picking 12th overall. Instead, the Hurricanes now sit with the second overall pick to add to their collection of young talent, which has implications in terms of getting a chance at selecting a lethal goal scorer in Andrei Svechnikov, Filip Zadina, or Brady Tkachuk.
Montreal’s suffering through the 2017-18 season was eased a bit by getting the third overall pick and a shot at a talent who should be on NHL ice come fall, giving them the goal scorer they so desperately need. They could also go back to addressing the blue line with several high-end options available at the top of the draft, but scoring is a need and Zadina, Svechnikov, or Tkachuk would help with that need.
Dahlin has been pegged as the #1 overall choice for a while now and is projected to dramatically change the fortunes of whichever team won the rights to draft him. Buffalo won that right, tonight.
The top fifteen picks in the 2018 NHL Draft are as follows:
#1- Buffalo Sabres
#2- Carolina Hurricanes
#3- Montreal Canadiens
#4- Ottawa Senators
#5- Arizona Coyotes
#6- Detroit Red Wings
#7- Vancouver Canucks
#8- Chicago Blackhawks
#9- N.Y. Rangers
#10-Edmonton Oilers
#11- N.Y. Islanders
#12- N.Y. Islanders (from Calgary)
#13- Dallas Stars
#14- Philadelphia Flyers (from St. Louis)
#15- Florida Panthers
Buffalo, Montreal, Carolina Early Winners In Draft Lottery
The Buffalo Sabres, Montreal Canadiens and Carolina Hurricanes each have won spots in the top three of the 2018 NHL draft at Saturday night’s NHL Draft Lottery. Any of the three can win the first overall pick and consensus first-overall pick defenseman Rasmus Dahlin in upcoming draft. The three teams will have to wait until the second intermission in tonight’s game between the San Jose Sharks and the Vegas Golden Knights to find out which of them won the lottery.
Buffalo, which has had the best chance to win the lottery in three of the last five years are still in it as the Sabres hope to add a franchise changing defenseman to their core of young players including Jack Eichel. The Sabres drafted eighth each of the last two years. They picked second in 2015 when they took Jack Eichel.
Montreal, who had the fourth best chance to get the top pick also won the lottery and will move up. The addition of Dahlin to their defense could help rebuild their blueline after an injury-plagued season by their top defenseman Shea Weber.
Carolina is the biggest surprise as they had the 11th best chance to fall into the top three. The franchise, flooded with quality young defensemen, would only get richer if they end up with the first overall pick.
Regardless of the top pick, there are several other top players that will round out the top three, including forwards Andrei Svechnikov, Filip Zadina and Brady Tkachuk.
Snapshots: Draft Rankings, Pilut, Matthews
TSN has released a special top-15 ranking prior to tomorrow’s draft lottery, and Rasmus Dahlin remains the unanimous choice for first overall. Beyond that, the trio of forwards Andrei Svechnikov, Filip Zadina and Brady Tkachuk fill out 2-4 while four other defenseman land in the top ten.
There will undoubtedly be plenty of debate in the coming months, but one thing seems certain. Whoever wins the draft lottery tomorrow night will have Dahlin in their lineup come October. That may seem premature, but scouts seem to agree that he’ll be an impact player from day one. Make sure to tune in between the first and second periods of the Vegas Golden Knights-San Jose Sharks tomorrow night.
- John Vogl of the Buffalo News reports on rumors that Lawrence Pilut has signed with the Buffalo Sabres, adding that a deal can’t be officially announced until the defenseman finishes his stint with the Swedish national team. Pilut, 22, registered 38 points for HV71 in the SHL this season, leading all defensemen. Undersized but talented, he would add some skill to a defense corps in Buffalo that has had trouble moving the puck in recent years.
- Though there had been some rumors about a potential rift between Mike Babcock and Auston Matthews, both parties denied any problems when asked today during their season-ending media availability. Both men are obviously disappointed by the results of Wednesday’s game 7 against the Boston Bruins, but made it clear that nothing had changed in their relationship.
NHL Central Scouting Releases Final Rankings
The NHL Central Scouting has released their final rankings for the 2018 Entry Draft, listing the best prospects in both North America and the rest of the world. Though Rasmus Dahlin is expected to be taken with the first-overall pick, there is no consensus behind him on who should go second and even less on who should fill out the top ten.
The NHL Draft Lottery will be held on April 28th, when all of the non-playoff teams will find out exactly where they’re picking in June. These lists will help to inform who your team might have a chance at, though obviously anything can happen. The top-5 North American and International skaters are listed below:
North America:
- RW Andrei Svechnikov, Barrie Colts, OHL
- LW Brady Tkachuk, Boston University, NCAA
- RW Filip Zadina, Halifax Mooseheads, QMJHL
- D Evan Bouchard, London Knights, OHL
- D Noah Dobson, Acadie-Bathurst Titan, QMJHL
International:
- D Rasmus Dahlin, Frolunda, SHL (Sweden)
- D Adam Boqvist, Brynas Jr, SuperElit (Sweden)
- RW Vitali Kravtsov, Chelyabinsk, KHL (Russia)
- RW Martin Kaut, Pardubice, Czech Republic
- D Adam Ginning, Linkoping, SHL (Sweden)
The first thing that many people will notice is Tkachuk’s climb to the second ranked player in North America, ahead of the elite goal-scoring talent of Zadina. Tkachuk’s stock has been rising all season thanks to a strong freshman year at BU and a good World Junior tournament. He could be selected as early as second overall should a team feel more comfortable with him than Svechnikov, who dealt with injury and an underwhelming World Junior performance for Russia.
Bouchard and Dobson experienced similar rises, and have now pushed out some of their American contemporaries. Many scouts have players like Quintin Hughes and Oliver Wahlstrom in the top five across North America, but both find themselves on the outside looking in thanks to huge CHL seasons by the big defensemen. Both Bouchard and Dobson project as excellent two-way options, who could move quickly through development systems to make an impact in the NHL.
One of the more eye-catching rankings is Ryan Merkley’s fall to #45 among North American skaters. The risky defenseman has been called both an elite offensive talent and a locker room trouble by prospect gurus, and will have to show that he is willing to be coached before getting an opportunity at the next level.
Riley Sutter, the latest in the powerhouse hockey family to enter the draft has fallen to #80 among North American skaters, and could end up as a mid-round pick come June.
Poll: Who Will Be The Second-Overall Pick In 2018?
With just a handful of games remaining in the 2017-18 season, fans of half the league are already looking forward to the first big date on the offseason calendar. The 2018 NHL Entry Draft will start on June 22nd in Dallas, where Rasmus Dahlin looks to be the first name off the board. The Swedish defenseman is almost unanimously at the top of the rankings at this point, after showing off his huge potential by logging big minutes in the SHL, dominating the World Juniors and even suiting up for his country in the recent Olympics.
But after Dahlin, the decision becomes much tougher. For many months the leading theory was that Andrei Svechnikov, the dominant scoring Russian winger would be the second-overall pick, until he suffered an injury and then was forgettable at the World Juniors. Instead, many eyes turned to Filip Zadina who starred at the tournament and continued to wow audiences in the QMJHL on his way to a 44-goal season and a place on many of the league leaderboards. The 18-year old Czech forward can score from just about anywhere in the offensive zone, and does it with enough flair that everyone in the building takes notice.
Another player stood out in the World Junior tournament though, and that was Brady Tkachuk out of Boston University. Tkachuk had already been quietly climbing the draft boards, showing that he perhaps had just as much talent as his older brother—Calgary Flames forward Matthew Tkachuk—when he put up nine points in seven games and was clearly one of the most dangerous players for the dynamic Team USA. Tkachuk plays a heavy game and is a well-rounded talent that could now go as high as #2 overall, just as TSN’s Craig Button ranked him on his latest board.
Button isn’t alone in thinking Tkachuk has a chance to go second, but he certainly isn’t the consensus. That’s because there simply isn’t one, with other players like Adam Boqvist and Quinn Hughes even getting some love at the top of draft boards around the hockey world. There are several high-end players in this draft who could be franchise-altering talents, and the second-overall pick is still very much undecided. It might be determined by which team is selected in the draft lottery, and moves up (or down) to select right after Dahlin is off the board.
Who do you think will walk up to the podium after hearing his name second at this year’s draft? Will it be one of the trio of forwards, or a second defenseman? Will Dahlin be knocked off his perch entirely, and end up as a (excellent) consolation prize after someone decides they need help up front instead? Cast your vote down below, and be sure to explain your selection in the comment section.
Who will be the second-overall pick?
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Andrei Svechnikov 32% (314)
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Filip Zadina 30% (295)
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Brady Tkachuk 30% (290)
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Rasmus Dahlin 3% (27)
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Adam Boqvist 3% (27)
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Quinn Hughes 2% (16)
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Other (leave in comments) 1% (11)
Total votes: 980
[Mobile users click here to vote!]
Canadian Juniors Could Change Approach To Foreign Goalies
In 2013, the Canadian Hockey League (CHL), the overarching body in major junior hockey that governs the Ontario Hockey League (OHL), Western Hockey League (WHL), and Quebec Major Junior Hockey League (QMJHL), decided to ban teams from drafting European goalies. The CHL holds an annual Import Draft in which all 60 teams across the three leagues are given two chances to draft foreign talent in an attempt to fill their two import slots on the roster for the following season. Sometimes the players who are drafted come over and other times they don’t. However, five years ago, CHL president David Branch and company decided to no longer take the risk of bringing in foreign keeper who could then in turn block young North American goalies by not allowing teams to select them in the import draft. While the idea was to protect the development and value of homegrown products, the result was a weaker product across the CHL and a more difficult time for their business partners in the NHL to evaluate foreign goalies.
In fairness, the decision was made after a stretch of dominant play by European keepers at the major junior level. In 2010-11, the top save percentage in both the OHL and QMJHL belonged to imports: Petr Mrazek and Christopher Gibson. Not long before, Michal Neuvirth was one of the OHL’s best as well. In the mid-2000’s, Ondrej Pavelec controlled the QMJHL, leading the league in goals against average in back-to-back seasons among other accomplishments, and is arguably still the league’s best goaltender in history.
This isn’t to say that Canadian and American goalies didn’t also flourish at that time as well, which calls the decision back into question. This was always a concern of quality over quantity, as the vast majority of teams still employed a North American starter and often a local backup or two as well. The CHL may have been concerned with the talent of some foreign prospects overshadowing Canada’s best, but they could never have honestly argued there was a lack of opportunity due to imported players. Top 2018 draft-eligible CHL prospects Andrei Svechnikov and Filip Zadina are both imports, yet they would never ban forwards.
Nevertheless, the CHL made a decision which clearly hurt their own competition level by excluding some of the top junior-level goaltending talent in the world without any evidence that it was truly hurting their domestic counterparts. Now, years later, the league is rethinking that decision. John Matisz of the Toronto Sun reports that the league is considering lifting the ban on foreign goalies, and for good reason. The ban has simply made it harder for NHL team to evaluate European keepers – with foreign leagues often dominated by older, experienced players, while the top young skaters come overseas – but hasn’t stopped them from being drafted into the pros at the same rate as CHL goalies. Meanwhile, top prospects such as Ukko-Pekka Luukonen (Buffalo), Filip Gustavsson (Ottawa), and 2018-eligible Jakub Skarek still reside overseas, but could surely benefit nearly any team in the CHL. The major juniors face little risk that a reversal would harm them in any way.
Interesting enough though, it may still be in European goalies’ best interests to remain in Europe and for NHL teams to focus on those who stay and face older, professional talent. The list of foreign goaltenders who played major junior in Canada and remain in the NHL – Mrazek, Neuvirth, Pavelec, Peter Budaj, Philipp Grubauer, Jaroslav Halak, Anton Khudobin, Marek Langhamer, Robin Lehner, and the most recent CHL import star, Oscar Dansk – all have one thing in common: they aren’t bona fide starters. Meanwhile, the likes of Sergei Bobrovsky, Henrik Lundqvist, Pekka Rinne, Tuukka Rask, and Andrei Vasilevskiy avoided North America until turning pro, and it worked out much better for them. With a new class of European goalies likely to join the CHL sooner rather than later, we’ll see if that trend continues.
The Odds Of Drafting A Superstar And The 2018 NHL Draft
Earlier this week, The Athletic’s Tyler Dellow went to work trying to figure out how the Ottawa Senators could maximize their trade return (subscription required) for Erik Karlsson, should the team decide to move the all-world defenseman prior to the NHL Trade Deadline on February 26th or at least before the 2018 NHL Entry Draft on June 22nd. Dellow surmised that in order to get anywhere near a fair return for Karlsson, Ottawa would need to acquire draft picks that could give them the best chance of finding a “franchise cornerstone” to replace him. The best-case-scenario for the Sens would obviously be to land the #1 overall pick in the lottery and the opportunity to draft the consensus top pick, Karlsson clone Rasmus Dahlin – a scenario that would not even require moving Karlsson. However, with the Arizona Coyotes and Buffalo Sabres likely having better lottery odds and another 12 teams having a chance at the top pick as well, its unlikely that the Senators choose first overall. Dahlin’s generational talent also means the lucky team that lands #1 isn’t moving it, even for Karlsson. So what then is the chance of finding a superstar in the draft? Dellow’s analysis produced these results:
- First pick: 90 percent,
- Second pick: 60 percent
- Third or Fourth pick: 15 percent
- Picks 5-20: 5 percent
- Picks 21-30: 2 percent
- Picks 31-60: 1 percent
- Picks 61+: .07 percent
While there is a considerable drop-off from the first pick to the second and the second to the third, it’s clear that picks #2 and #3 still hold immense value. Dellow goes on to describe the infrequency with which those picks are moved, citing Alexei Yashin-for-Jason Spezza and the drafting of Henrik and Daniel Sedin are rare recent examples. Dellow’s thesis continues that the current Vancouver Canucks could be a rare team willing to part with a high pick, if it meant landing Karlsson.
However what if Karlsson isn’t traded by the Draft – a situation that is far more likely than the media would make it out to be – would the normally untouchable top three picks be back off the table? Obviously, the results of the draft lottery matter immensely and the #1 pick will surely not be moved this year. More likely than not, #2 is going nowhere as well. Yet, the status of the 2018 draft class leads to much intrigue over the #3 pick, which historically has a 15% chance of landing a superstar. Unlike past years, there is no consensus second-best player in 2018. In some order, Nico Hischier and Nolan Patrick were going 1-2 in 2017, as were Auston Matthews and Patrik Laine in 2016, and no one was going right behind Connor McDavid other than Jack Eichel in 2015. This year’s crop offers a situation unlike the last few seasons, wherein Dahlin is guaranteed to go first overall – and will be off the draft board of everyone but the lottery winner before the draft even begins – but the following picks are unpredictable. At #2, it could be Russian sniper Andrei Svechnikov, sleek Czech forward Filip Zadina, big, skilled Americans Brady Tkachuk or Oliver Wahlstrom, or a D-needy team with the second pick could even go off the board for a defenseman.
The decision on the second overall pick in 2018 will undeniably result in the top player on many teams’ board being selected, but the top player on many other teams’ board falling to #3. If that team at third overall was hoping to take the player selected at #2, now things could get interesting. According to Dellow’s results, the team at #3 has now lost a 45% chance of finding their next franchise player, but could trade out of the pick and still end up with one (or more) top 20 pick(s), each with a 5% chance of becoming a star, as well as possibly an established pick or player. If you put trust into a model like Dellow’s, a deal like this becomes much more about math and odds than simply taking the risk of trading back out of disappointment with the draft order.
Going back to the Karlsson-to-Vancouver hypothetical, imagine that the Canucks land the #3 overall pick while the Senators have a pick in the 5-20 range, either by the lottery or an additional pick from an upcoming trade. Vancouver hypothetically wanted Zadina, who went #2, while the top player on Ottawa’s board was Tkachuk (or maybe a defenseman like Adam Boqvist). Vancouver could, as Dellow proposes, offer the Sens the third pick – and a 15% chance at a star – and a prospect like Olli Juolevi, the fifth overall pick in 2016 – who holds a 5% chance of becoming a star himself – as part of a larger package for Karlsson and a first. Ottawa nets a 20% chance of adding a cornerstone player, including at least one potential replacement on the blue line, and Vancouver holds onto a 5% chance of finding a star of their own with the later first rounder. The 10% loss for Vancouver is more than made up by the gain of a bona fide star in Karlsson. Could a deal like this happen? For sure. Will it? Probably not, but Dellow’s analysis of draft pick values and a seemingly volatile draft board in 2018 helps to illuminate the possibilities of some fascinating, unprecedented deals early on at the 2018 Draft.
Coyotes Notes: Perlini, Richardson, Draft Options
While many would be quick to call Clayton Keller the Arizona Coyotes’ best young player, his teammate has quietly taken up the mantle of being the franchise’s all-time best young goal-scorer. AZSports’ Craig Morgan noted last night that Brendan Perlini‘s 28th career goal in his 100th NHL game is most among ‘Yotes alums in their first 100 games. Perlini passed up Peter Mueller, who had 27 in 100, a player who burned bright, but burned out young and was out of the NHL after his first five seasons. Arizona surely hopes that Perlini has more longevity and would especially be excited if he kept up his current level of play, having scored a goal in four straight games. Meanwhile, Keller surely has his eye on soon taking Perlini’s title; the 19-year-old has 14 goals through his first 53 games, so he’ll have to pick up the pace this season into next season.
- Morgan was also the first to announce that Brad Richardson would not return to last night’s game after suffering an upper-body injury. There has been no update on Richardson’s status yet, but it would be no surprise if the veteran forward is out of the lineup for a substantial amount of time yet again. Richardson has had a tough go of it lately, missing six games due to injury this year after missing a whopping 66 games last year. Richardson has also struggled to produce with only nine points through 44 games. Nevertheless, the Coyotes are surely hoping that Richardson makes a speedy recovery with the NHL Trade Deadline fast approaching. With so few pending unrestricted free agents on the roster – Richardson, Antti Raanta, Luke Schenn, Zac Rinaldo – GM John Chayka would like to be able to move out as many as possible, unless his plan is make some larger deals involving his plethora of younger players.
- In reality, the 2017-18 has long been over for the Coyotes and their next event of note is the 2018 NHL Entry Draft. Though the lottery could throw a wrench in their plans, Arizona is in the best position of any team to land the prize of the draft, Swedish phenom Rasmus Dahlin. TSN’s Bob McKenzie released his Mid-Season Draft Rankings today, in which he calls this the “Rasmus Dahlin draft” and makes of note of consensus that no player has a chance to go first overall besides the dynamic defenseman. With some doubt over the future of All-Star Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Chayka would like nothing more than to select a potential replacement in Dahlin. At the very least, the worst record in the NHL will guarantee the Coyotes a top-four pick and, as McKenzie specifies, one of the trio of forwards that make up the next tier of elite prospects behind Dahlin – Andrei Svechnikov, Filip Zadina, and Brady Tkachuk.
Snapshots: Prospects, Olympics, Savard
The NHL’s Central Scouting has released their midterm rankings for North American and International skaters, with Andrei Svechnikov and Rasmus Dahlin leading the way respectively. Dahlin is about as locked in as a prospect can be for the first-overall selection, but several others will be battling for the number two spot. Svechnikov, Filip Zadina, Adam Boqvist and Brady Tkachuk are all top options who could be in the top three selections, and should b considered blue chip pieces for whoever ends up with them.
Interestingly, players like Ryan Merkley (#21 among North American skaters) and Bode Wilde (#22) find themselves relatively far down the list despite their previous top-10 projections. Whether that has more to do with their own play slipping this season or the influx of talent throughout the draft class is unclear, but it should excite even teams in the playoff picture with the prospect of adding an impact player on defense.
- Many of the Olympic rosters have now been released, with young players like Dahlin, Miro Heiskanen and Eeli Tolvanen dominating the headlines for Sweden and Finland. Rosters for the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, Switzerland and host Korea are available on the IIHF website. Igor Eronko of Sport-Express reports that the Olympic Athletes from Russia squad will release their roster on Thursday, which should be one of the powerhouses of the tournament.
- Marc Savard has officially announced his retirement, exactly seven years after his last game in the NHL. The exquisite playmaker was forced from the game due to concussion problems, but was still technically under contract through last season. His career ended in 2011 with the Bruins after 807 games, in which he registered 706 points including seasons of 97 and 96. According to Chris Lomon of the NHLPA, Savard is looking to move up the coaching ranks after spending some time behind the bench of his sons’ triple-A teams.