What Your Team Is Thankful For: Tampa Bay Lightning
As we approach the end of the year, PHR continues its look at what teams are thankful for in 2022-23. There also might be a few things your team would like down the road. We’ll examine what’s gone well in the early going and what could improve as the season rolls on for the Tampa Bay Lightning.
Who are the Lightning thankful for?
Yes, he’s healthy, and yes, he’s as good as he’s ever been. Kucherov has shone brightly this season, even among a notoriously strong supporting cast in Tampa Bay. He had played in just over a third of Tampa’s regular season games over the past two seasons, even losing the entire 2020-21 regular season to injury.
But he’s back on his world-beating pace, set to break the 120-point mark once again if he can suit up for a full 82 games. He leads all Lightning with 49 points in 32 games, 11 points ahead of Steven Stamkos. He’s also playing over 21 minutes per game, the highest mark in his NHL career.
The Lightning will have eight players with a cap hit greater than $5MM next season, not including the long-term injured reserve relief of Brent Seabrook. With that kind of top-loaded structure, you need quality depth, and you need your stars to be stars. Kucherov’s performance, especially when healthy, makes his $9.5MM cap hit seem like a bargain, even in this tight salary cap landscape. Continued elite performance from the 29-year-old is crucial in giving the Lightning a chance to remain among the league’s best.
What are the Lightning thankful for?
Financial certainty as the cap rises.
It’s been a delicate dance for the Lightning’s front office over the past few seasons. The team made three consecutive Stanley Cup Final appearances in a time of near-complete financial stagnation for the league, mainly due to their management’s ability to play with fire without getting burned.
In even better news, they’re in a position to get rewarded as the cap rises. They have very few core players to sign to new contracts anytime soon. Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman will need new deals in the next three seasons, but they’ll be 34 and 35 at that time and won’t be able to command much of a raise, if any. Kucherov, Brayden Point, Anthony Cirelli, Mikhail Sergachev, Andrei Vasilevskiy, and even Erik Cernak and Nick Paul are locked in well past their 30th birthdays.
It finally seems like there may be some room to breathe for the Lightning, even if it’s a few seasons away.
What would the Lightning be even more thankful for?
More out of Victor Hedman.
18 points in 30 games aren’t bad by any measure, but Hedman has lost his grip on being the team’s unequivocal number-one defenseman, at least for now.
Mikhail Sergachev has dominated, potting 27 points in 30 games while seeing his usage equal nearly that of Hedman’s across 30 games. But it’s not just points separating the two this season.
Hedman’s main defense partners this year, Erik Cernak and Nicklaus Perbix, each have better defensive metrics paired with different defenders. Neither the Hedman-Cernak pairing nor the Hedman-Perbix pairing has eclipsed a 50% expected goals share this season, according to MoneyPuck’s model. It’s putting more strain on other Lightning defenders to pick up the legwork, and thankfully, they’re delivering.
What should be on the Lightning’s holiday wishlist?
A better backup goalie.
Tampa still has very little maneuverability this season financially, so any trade deadline moves they make will need to be small and effective. Their forward core still makes up the eighth-ranked offense in the league, and their defense is still capable for the most part.
Their most glaring weakness can thankfully be easily addressed. Brian Elliott is 37 years old and, despite a 7-2-0 record this year, has just a .894 save percentage. If any health issue affects Vasilevskiy in the playoffs, it’s likely game over for Tampa in a tight Eastern Conference.
Main photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
John Carlson Out Indefinitely
It largely went under the radar last night with Alex Ovechkin passing Gordie Howe for second in all-time NHL goals but Capitals defenseman John Carlson was taken to the hospital yesterday after taking a Brenden Dillon slap shot directly to the head early in the third period. Today, the team announced (Twitter link) the following update:
John Carlson was transported to a local hospital for further evaluation following his injury during the third period of Friday’s game vs. WPG. Carlson was discharged from the hospital earlier today and remains under the care of team medical personnel. He is out indefinitely.
The fact that Carlson has been discharged is certainly promising but an indefinite timeline is hardly ideal for a Washington team that is narrowly holding onto the second and final Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference. The 32-year-old leads all Capitals blueliners with 21 points in 30 games while logging over 23 minutes per game for the sixth straight season.
With Nicklas Backstrom and Tom Wilson both starting to make progress toward returning, it looked like the Capitals were finally starting to get some good luck on the injury side of things. Now, that optimism has been quelled somewhat with Carlson potentially being out for a little while now.
Snapshots: Three Stars, Lafferty, Claesson
With no games scheduled until Tuesday, the NHL has gone ahead and released its Three Stars for this past week. Capitals winger Alex Ovechkin took home the top nod after recording six points in three games, including two goals against Winnipeg to put him in sole possession of second in NHL history with 802. Avalanche goaltender Alexandar Georgiev was the Second Star after a trio of extra-time victories that saw him post a 0.94 GAA along with a .965 SV%. Meanwhile, Canucks center Elias Pettersson earned the last spot of the group after tying for the most assists (five) and points (seven) on the week which is particularly impressive considering he missed Vancouver’s first game of the week due to illness.
Elsewhere around the hockey world:
- While Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews are the headliners among Chicago’s speculative trade candidates, Charlie Roumeliotis of NBC Sports Chicago posits that forward Sam Lafferty might be of interest on the trade market closer to the trade deadline. The 27-year-old has eight points and 37 hits in 26 games this season while winning a little over 52% of his faceoffs. He can play all three forward positions as well and that type of versatility can be appealing to contending teams. At a $1.15MM AAV through next season, he’s also someone most teams should be able to afford so Lafferty could very well be an under-the-radar candidate to move over the next couple of months from the Blackhawks.
- Fredrik Claesson won’t be returning to North America next season as CSKA Moscow of the KHL announced that they’ve inked the defenseman to a two-year contract extension. Claesson has 170 career NHL contests under his belt and this will be the first time since 2014-15 that he hasn’t played at the top level. However, after spending most of last year in the minors, he opted to try his hand overseas and it has worked out well for him with receiving this commitment. The 30-year-old has a dozen points in 41 games so far this season.
PHR Panel: Trade Market Memories (Part 1)
The year is almost up and NHL teams are taking breaks to spend time with their families before the second-half grind begins in earnest. Once the calendar turns to 2023, trade chatter will start again, and the push to the playoffs will begin. A break is time for reflection, and over this weekend we will be looking back with one of our favorite features: the PHR Panel.
In the spirit of the holidays, we have a special treat for the PHR community. Three of our former writers have joined in to give us their thoughts on what has been an incredible year of hockey. Welcome back Zach Leach, Holger Stolzenberg, and Nate Brown! Because we have the whole family back together, we’ll split each panel into two parts.
Now on to the meat of the thing. Our question today is simple:
What is the most memorable transaction of 2022?
Atlantic Notes: Bunting, Heatherington, Harrison
The Maple Leafs have yet to engage in contract extension talks for pending UFA winger Michael Bunting, Sportsnet’s Nick Kypreos reports in his latest Toronto Star column. The 27-year-old isn’t producing at quite the level he was last season but still has 24 points in 34 games this season, making him quite a bargain as he carries just a $950K AAV. It stands to reason that he could pass the $4MM mark on the open market in the summer and while that might be more than Toronto can afford, it’s a price tag they’re going to have to know about heading into the trade deadline so they’ll know if they’ll have a chance of being able to keep him beyond this season. Otherwise, their plans on deadline day could change accordingly.
More from the Atlantic Division:
- The Ottawa Senators have returned defenseman Dillon Heatherington to AHL Belleville, per the AHL’s transactions log. The assignment allows the Sens to bank a bit more cap room while Heatherington might also get into a game with Belleville even if he is going to eventually be recalled as the lone AHL game on December 26th is Belleville taking on provincial rival Toronto. Heatherington played 11:28 on Thursday night, his first NHL appearance of the season while he has five points in 19 games in the minors.
- Mark Divver of the New England Hockey Journal suggests (Twitter link) that there are trade rumors surrounding Bruins prospect Brett Harrison at the OHL level. The 19-year-old was a third-rounder back in 2021 and has already signed his entry-level contract. Harrison has 29 points in 24 games with Oshawa this season but with the Generals sitting in last in their division (even though they still hold a playoff spot), they’re expected to be sellers prior to the January 10th trade deadline.
Blue Jackets Assign Josh Dunne To AHL
With the Blue Jackets off for a few days, they’ve decided to send one of their players back to the minors as the team announced (Twitter link) that they’ve assigned center Josh Dunne to AHL Cleveland.
The 24-year-old was recalled back on Monday as the injury replacement for Boone Jenner after he was placed on IR following thumb surgery. Dunne played in three games with Columbus while on recall, logging a little under six minutes a night without recording a point while averaging a hit per contest. It was the second NHL stint of his career after getting into six games late in the 2020-21 campaign.
He has fared better in the minors, however, with six goals and five assists in 24 games so far with the Monsters, numbers that are very similar to the five goals and six helpers he had in 29 contests with them last season. The Blue Jackets are off until Tuesday so the move, which will likely be reversed prior to that game against Buffalo, will save them a bit of money although, with the team well into LTIR, it won’t make any sort of difference on their cap picture.
Stars Assign Riley Tufte To AHL
Stars winger Riley Tufte was in the lineup in last night’s victory over Montreal but immediately following the contest, the team announced that Tufte has been sent back to Texas of the AHL.
The 24-year-old played in three games with the big club on this recall, logging just under eight minutes a night in ice time while being held off the scoresheet. Tufte has been productive in the minors though, notching seven goals and nine assists in 21 AHL contests.
As he was recalled after December 11th and is waiver-exempt, Tufte was eligible to be sent back down even though the roster freeze is in effect. It’s likely that he’ll be brought back in advance of their next game on the 27th.
With Dallas projected to finish with less than $300K in cap space per CapFriendly, they’re in a position where any cap savings they can find will be crucial. Tufte carries just a $750K AAV but three days of him being in the minors frees up over $12K in cap room. It’s not much but in their situation, every little bit is going to count.
What Your Team Is Thankful For: St. Louis Blues
As we approach the end of the year, PHR continues its look at what teams are thankful for in 2022-23. There also might be a few things your team would like down the road. We’ll examine what’s gone well in the early going and what could improve as the season rolls on for the St. Louis Blues.
Who are the Blues thankful for?
He may have had a slow start to the season, but Kyrou’s had a torrid November and December to silence any doubters. It’s been a streaky run for the Blues this season, and seeing young cornerstones continue to develop and lead the team is always a positive.
After just three points in his first eight games, Kyrou has 29 in his past 23 and leads the team in scoring with 16 goals and 32 points. At 24 years old, Kyrou figures to be a long-term solution for elite goal-scoring in St. Louis. The team agrees and is being rewarded for their gamble, handing Kyrou an eight-year, $65MM extension that kicks in next season.
He’s rolling along at more than a point-per-game clip on the league’s 21st-ranked offense, which is underperforming, to be fair. But the Blues still remain in the playoff conversation with a .500 record as Christmas approaches, mainly in part due to Kyrou’s offensive excellence.
What are the Blues thankful for?
A rough season with good timing.
If there were ever a season for the Blues to sell, it would be this one. Ryan O’Reilly, Vladimir Tarasenko, and Ivan Barbashev are all unrestricted free agents at the season’s end. While it would be a tad out of nature for general manager Doug Armstrong, the team could certainly opt for a retool around the strong performances of players like Kyrou, Robert Thomas, and Pavel Buchnevich.
It would allow St. Louis to recoup what could be massive value early on in a retool phase, giving them a jumpstart in getting back into competitiveness without having to sacrifice players like Kyrou and Thomas later in their primes for a full-scale rebuild. If Armstrong plays his cards right, he has a unique opportunity to restock St. Louis’ cupboard at just the right time.
What would the Blues be even more thankful for?
A Jordan Binnington resurgence.
His .897 save percentage doesn’t tell the whole story. The team has not been close to the league’s upper echelon defensively, and it reflects in their goals against total, which sits near the league’s bottom.
But Binnington hasn’t stolen games the way he did earlier in his NHL career, and his behavior unrelated to his play has made more headlines this year than his saves have. He’s been average, not to blame for St. Louis’ struggles, but not the goalie that won them a Stanley Cup in 2019.
The issue lies in that St. Louis has invested in him to do just that – steal games. He’s not paid like a tandem netminder, locked in at a $6MM cap hit through 2027. With trade protection in the mix, too, it’s not looking like a pretty situation financially.
What should be on the Blues’ holiday wishlist?
Like many other teams, young defensemen.
The team’s prospect pool on D revolves around Scott Perunovich. While extremely talented, he hasn’t been able to avoid constant injury issues. He played just 36 games last season across both the NHL and AHL and hasn’t played at all this season due to a shoulder injury expected to keep him out through April.
Outside of him, there are some players who may have NHL futures, but no one who fits the bill as a solid long-term solution. Help in the D pipeline will likely be top of mind in trade returns if the Blues do sell off assets at the trade deadline.
Main photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Submit Your Questions For The #PHRMailbag
We’ll reach the second half of the season next month and it’s at that point that more of the playoff-caliber teams will start to establish themselves and the trade market might even start to open up a little bit. We’ll also get a better sense as to whether some early-season surprises are realistic postseason contenders. With that in mind and the holiday season almost upon us, it’s a good time to run our next mailbag.
Our last mailbag was broken into two segments. The first looked at John Hynes’ future in Nashville, whether or not it’s time for the Blues to be sellers, Hockey Hall of Fame benchmarks, and much more. Among the topics in the second column were Rasmus Ristolainen’s struggles for the Flyers, John Gibson’s trade candidacy, offseason mulligans, and Seattle’s surprisingly strong start.
You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below. The mailbag will run on the weekend.
Snapshots: Cizikas, Coyotes Arena, Stalock
Injuries are beginning to pile up for the New York Islanders. After moving Kyle Palmieri and Semyon Varlamov to injured reserve earlier today, the team announced that forward Casey Cizikas is also out day-to-day with an upper-body injury. Unlike the other two, he’s yet to land on injured reserve.
That could be a good sign for the Islanders and Cizikas, but they do not need to put him on injured reserve with 18 healthy skaters still ready to go on the active roster. In Cizikas’ absence, 2021 second-round pick Aatu Räty is expected to make his NHL debut tonight, centering the fourth line. In the second season of a six-year, $15MM contract, Cizikas has just seven points in 34 games.
- In another small step toward securing their future in Arizona, the Coyotes have collected the necessary signatures to send all parts of their Tempe arena and entertainment district plan to a referendum, according to PHNX Sports’ Craig Morgan. Public voting on whether or not to approve the team’s plan to build a home in Tempe will occur on May 16, 2023, after the 2022-23 season concludes.
- Chicago Blackhawks goalie Alex Stalock is returning to the lineup tonight after missing nearly two months with a concussion sustained in a November 1 game against the New York Islanders. He’s statistically been Chicago’s best netminder this season with a .914 save percentage in seven appearances, and despite missing so much time, still has the most wins of any Blackhawks goalie with three.




