Senators Rumors

Alex Burrows Suspended Ten Games

February 7, 2018 at 8:05 pm CDT | by Zach Leach 6 Comments

When Alex Burrows was invited to a in-person hearing with the NHL Department of Player Safety, it became known that the Ottawa Senators forward could be suspended more than five games. While the Senators squared off with the New Jersey Devils last night, Burrows got tangled up with Taylor Hall and seemed to intentionally and maliciously knee Hall in the head repeatedly. Player Safety saw the play the same way and tonight handed down a ten-game suspension for Burrows. Player Safety summed up the altercation as follows:

“In short, for the sole purpose of retribution, Burrows drags an unwilling opponent to the ice, punches him several times, then uses his knee pad to violently inflict more punishment on his opponent’s head… This is a dangerous and unjustifiable attack that runs the risk of severe injury and such plays will not be tolerated by the Department of Player Safety.”

This ten-game ban, more than 12% of the 82-game season and exactly one third of Ottawa’s remaining games, is the longest suspension of the season in the NHL. It’s no surprise that Burrows is the culprit, as the veteran forward has one of the more tarnished reputations in the league when it comes to dirty play. (Remember he bit Patrice Bergeron in the 2011 Stanley Cup Final). In fact, Burrows has already been fined $5,000 earlier this season for roughing, though that’s nothing compared to the $135,000 he is now set to lose.

Burrows does have the right to appeal the suspension, first to commissioner Gary Bettman and then to a neutral arbitrator, but such challenges are rare in the NHL and even more so is unlikely to be successful, given the clear graphic nature of the offense. Burrows will have to sit for ten game, unable to return to the Ottawa lineup until March. For the bottom-dwelling Senators, Burrow’s absence won’t mean the difference between making the playoffs or not. However, it does make last year’s trade, in which the Sens gave up promising prospect Jonathan Dahlen, that much harder to swallow.

Snapshots: Devils, Koekkoek, Jerabek

February 7, 2018 at 3:16 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee Leave a Comment

The New Jersey Devils have been a better story than anyone expected this season, jumping from the first-overall pick in June 2017 to third place in the Metropolitan Division as we sit here today. That unexpected success though often comes with hard decisions come the trade deadline, a situation Devils GM Ray Shero is familiar with.

When speaking with Mike Morreale of NHL.com, Shero was clear that he would not deviate from the long-term plan he had for the Devils before the season. He believes that his team will avoid the rental market at their current costs, but will stay open to “hockey deals” over the next few weeks. Shero of course already added Sami Vatanen in a surprising move earlier this season, trading away long time Devils forward Adam Henrique.

Slater Koekkoek was afforded a rare opportunity to log some higher minute totals while Victor Hedman was out for the Tampa Bay Lightning, and GM Steve Yzerman believes he showed well in his limited exposure. Yzerman told Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet as much, who, in his latest 31 Thoughts column, suggested that the Ottawa Senators were among teams showing interest in the young defenseman. Koekkoek was selected 10th-overall in 2012 but has never been able to establish himself as a full-time NHL player. Scheduled to become a restricted free agent in the summer, perhaps the Lightning will look to give him another opportunity elsewhere.
Speaking of opportunity, that’s all Jakub Jerabek wanted when he signed a contract with the Montreal Canadiens last offseason. Jerabek, 26, left the KHL after one excellent season in order to come to North America, and has acquitted himself well in his debut with Montreal and the Laval Rocket of the AHL. Eric Engels of Sportsnet reports that Jerabek very much enjoys playing in Montreal, and though no contract negotiations have taken place just yet, the player would welcome them at some point. Because of his advanced age, Jerabek was forced to sign just a one-year deal with the Canadiens, and will be an unrestricted free agent in July.

Alex Burrows Waives Right To In-Person Hearing

February 7, 2018 at 9:46 am CDT | by Gavin Lee 1 Comment

Alex Burrows had been offered an in-person hearing with the Department of Player Safety to defend his actions in last night’s Ottawa-New Jersey game, but has decided to decline that option and instead will speak over the phone. Because they offered him the in-person meeting, the NHL retains the right to suspend Burrows for more than five games.

Burrows was involved in an incident in front of the Ottawa net last night when he was tangled up with Taylor Hall. When the two players ended up on the ice, Burrows seemed to try and land blows with his knee to Hall’s head.

The 36-year old forward has been suspended and fine by the league before, and has a reputation of playing close to the line of legality. The telephone hearing will be held this afternoon.

Mark Stone, Patrick Maroon Interested In Signing Extensions

February 6, 2018 at 7:29 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee Leave a Comment

While many players are worried about which team they’ll be suiting up for in just a few weeks, two are already thinking about inking extensions in the summer. Mark Stone and Patrick Maroon both spoke about wanting to stay in their respective cities, though they may find different outcomes as the deadline approaches.

First Stone, who told Bruce Garrioch of Postmedia that he wants to stay with the Ottawa Senators long-term and has little doubt the two sides will come to an agreement when he hits restricted free agency this summer. Stone is in the last season of his three-year, $10.5MM contract and has developed into the Senators best forward on most nights. Despite missing the last seven games due to injury, Stone leads the Senators in scoring with 44 points in 44 games and is arguably the league’s best takeaway artist.

Stone will deserve a huge raise if the Senators want to sign him long-term, as he has just a single season left before being eligible for unrestricted free agency. Turning 26 in May, he could demand a contract along the lines of some of the game’s elite wingers. Depending on how Ottawa feels about their finances as they move towards Erik Karlsson’s 2019 unrestricted free agency, Stone’s contract could come with some substantial hurdles. Bobby Ryan and Dion Phaneuf remain on the books with huge cap hits, and owner Eugene Melnyk has hinted in the past that the Senators would need to cut salary.

Then there is Maroon, who is headed towards unrestricted free agency this summer. According to Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic (subscription required), Maroon’s representatives have already touched base with the Edmonton Oilers to discuss an extension, though if things can’t be completed in the next few weeks one would have to believe a trade could be the result. Even with the Oilers’ recent surge they remain more than ten points out of a playoff spot and have to be looking towards next season and beyond.

Maroon has found his game in Edmonton and developed into an effective player, but with the Oilers heading into Connor McDavid’s eight-year $100MM contract and Leon Draisaitl already earning $8.5MM per season, they have to be very careful with how they divide the rest of their salary cap. Even though Maroon is on pace to come short of his career-high of 27 goals set last season, he should still get a raise on the $2MM cap hit he currently carries.

The fact that Maroon is relatively inexpensive this season—he would come with only a prorated $1.5MM cap hit since Anaheim is still retaining part of his salary—also increases his trade value. Edmonton could potentially use him as a rental at the deadline, only to try and re-sign him in the summer months. That’s a tricky game to play though, as things can change quickly in the NHL, especially if Maroon were to go to a team with a good chance at the Stanley Cup. There’s no telling what could change his mind and cause him to sign elsewhere after hitting the open market.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Snapshots: Lupul, Hinostroza, Ryan

February 6, 2018 at 12:20 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee Leave a Comment

Joffrey Lupul is technically still under contract with the Toronto Maple Leafs, despite not suiting up for a game in two years. Chris Johnston of Sportsnet relays some of Lupul’s feelings from a recent podcast appearance, which indicates that though he might have some regrets on how his career ended, there isn’t a comeback in the works.

Lupul could technically sign a contract with an NHL club in the offseason as a free agent, but there doesn’t seem to be any indication he will. The 34-year old forward is instead concentrating on his life after hockey, even referring to himself as “retired.” Lupul’s career would end with 420 points in 701 games, including a career-high 67-point campaign in 2011-12 with the Maple Leafs.

The Chicago Blackhawks will have a little less roster flexibility after tonight’s game as CapFriendly points out, as Vinnie Hinostroza is set to play in his 80th career game. That means Hinostroza will no longer be waiver-exempt, though he seems to have solidified his place in the lineup anyway. The 23-year old forward has 14 points in 22 games this season for the Blackhawks, and is another example of a smaller player finding success in today’s game. Selected in the sixth round partly due to his size, Hinostroza hasn’t stopped scoring at any level of hockey.
If the Ottawa Senators had any plans to try and move Bobby Ryan and his huge contract they might have to wait until the offseason. The 30-year old forward will be out a minimum of three weeks according to Bruce Garrioch of Postmedia, putting a return before the trade deadline in doubt. Ryan does have 20 points in 39 games this season as he’s battled through several injuries, but isn’t the same goal-scoring threat he once was. Owed another $30MM over the next four seasons, his contract has quickly become a huge hindrance on the Senators’ future plans.

Minor Transactions: 02/06/18

February 6, 2018 at 11:47 am CDT | by Gavin Lee Leave a Comment

As always, we’ll keep track of all the minor moves around the league right here. Make sure to refresh throughout the day.

According to the AHL transaction page, the Anaheim Ducks have recalled Nicolas Kerdiles from the minor leagues, though it is unclear what the corresponding move is to make room for him. Kerdiles has played in just two games for the Ducks this season, but has 19 points in 23 games for the AHL’s San Diego Gulls.
The Ottawa Senators have recalled Max McCormick once again, as they deal with injuries to Bobby Ryan and Mark Stone. McCormick is still looking for his first NHL point this season, after being held scoreless in his first three games.
After spending time as a healthy scratch recently, Michael Bournival will return to the Syracuse Crunch to get back into some game action. The Tampa Bay Lightning forward has played in only four NHL games this season, but is a key part of the AHL attack.

Deadline Primer: Ottawa Senators

February 4, 2018 at 3:50 pm CDT | by Holger Stolzenberg 3 Comments

With the trade deadline fast approaching, we will be taking a closer look at the situation for each team. Where do they stand, what do they need to do, and what assets do they have to fill those needs? Next up are the Ottawa Senators.

It certainly hasn’t been the year that the Ottawa Senators imagined after a deep playoff run just a year ago. With a combination of veterans and young talent, including two-time Norris Trophy winner Erik Karlsson, it looked like the team was trending in a positive direction. Very little has gone right as the Senators are struggling in a weak Atlantic Division and while they haven’t been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, the team has little to no chance. The team’s struggles have suddenly made the team sellers, but what are they willing to move?

Record

17-25-9, 7th in Atlantic Division

Deadline Status

Seller

Deadline Cap Space

$5.8MM – full-season cap hit, 0/3 retained salary transactions, 49/50 contracts per CapFriendly

Draft Picks

2018: OTT 1st (only if it’s a Top-10 pick), OTT 3rd, OTT 4th, OTT 5th, OTT 6th, OTT 7th, NYR 7th
2019: OTT 1st (unless Ottawa kept 2018 pick), OTT 2nd, OTT 4th, OTT 5th, OTT 6th, OTT 7th

Trade Chips

While there have been constant assurances from Ottawa general manager Pierre Dorion that the team will not trade Karlsson, especially before the trade deadline, there remains constant rumors and suggestions that teams might make major offers to pry the team’s captain away as rumors continue to surface that while he loves Ottawa, he doesn’t believe ownership will be able to deliver a winner. The team could get better much faster if they can get a great return on Karlsson.

However, assuming Karlsson stays put, the team has made numerous other players available, the most notable would be winger Mike Hoffman, who the team believes it should also be able to get a good return for. The 28-year-old center still has two more years on his contract after this one and has scored 92 goals over the past four seasons. Throw in the fact that centers are at a premium and the team could benefit greatly from a deal centering around Hoffman.

Five Players To Watch For: W Alexandre Burrows; C Mike Hoffman; D Erik Karlsson; D Johnny Oduya; C Jean-Gabriel Pageau

Team Needs

1) Unloading High-Priced Contracts: If they can find a taker for one of their two most bloated contracts in defenseman Dion Phaneuf or perhaps more importantly forward Bobby Ryan, that could fix a lot of the team’s problems. If the team could free up some cap space, then they can make a competitive offer in a year to extend Karlsson, who is looking to break the bank. However, Phaneuf still has three more years after this one at $7MM per year, while Ryan has four more years at $7.25MM. Neither would be particularly easy to unload without retaining a large chunk of their salaries.

2) Young experienced talent/Picks: While the team has a lot of youth, what the team really needs is to form a nucleus around center Matt Duchene, who they traded for during the season. The team has a lot of young talent, but what they need is young players who have already established themselves somewhat in the league and won’t be a liability early on as they try to transition to the NHL. As for picks, the team traded away their 2018 first-rounder in the Duchene trade, but (fortunately for them) it was top-10 protected which could give the Senators the chance to keep the pick for this year. However, if that’s the case, then the first-rounder will transfer to 2019. Replacing that lost first-rounder should be a key priority for a team that is struggling.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Stone Could Be Ready To Return Tuesday

February 4, 2018 at 11:05 am CDT | by Holger Stolzenberg 8 Comments

The Ottawa Sun’s Bruce Garrioch reports that the Ottawa Senators might be getting back forward Mark Stone from injury soon, after having already missed six games due to a knee injury. Although not expected to play today against Montreal, Garrioch writes that Stone has resumed skating and is a possibility for Tuesday’s game against the New Jersey Devils. “I have to find out if it swelled up again,” Senators head coach Guy Boucher said Saturday. “There’s no structural problem waiting to heal. It’s the swelling. Once the swelling is gone, then he’s ready to play. I know the swelling was down big time. Mechanically he was able to move his leg a lot better, but certainly not enough to play (this weekend), and he hasn’t practised yet. He has to do real practices with the team, and then he’s ready to play. I’d love to get him back, but we’ve lived with this all year.”

Trade Candidate: Aaron Dell

February 3, 2018 at 4:31 pm CDT | by Holger Stolzenberg 1 Comment

With the trade deadline approaching, we will be profiling several players in the weeks ahead that have a good chance to be dealt by February 26th.

The San Jose Sharks find themselves in tough position when it comes to their backup goaltender Aaron Dell. The 28-year-old has only been in the league for two years, but has had quite a bit of success, especially this year. With the struggles of starter Martin Jones, Dell has had to take on bigger resposibities and, at times, has outplayed the veteran. Now, with the trade deadline three weeks away, the team must decide what it plans to do with the netminder.

Contract

Dell is in the final year of a two-year, $1.225MM contract he signed with the Sharks in July of 2016. His AAV is $625K.

2017-18

Dell was brought in two years ago as the backup to Jones and has thrived in that role. However, since December Jones has struggled, which has forced Dell into a larger role this year and he has done quite a good job filling in more often for Jones, often being the preferred starter over Jones. His numbers have been impressive, but more importantly, he has led the team to a 12-4-3 record this year.

His name has come up in trade rumors and the Sharks aren’t likely going to be able to keep the backup next year as Dell may look to seek a starting role or an opportunity to split time evenly with another goalie. On top of that, Dell should receive a significant pay raise from the $625K he is currently making.

Season Stats

22 GP, 12-4-3 record, 2.51 GAA, .917 SV%, 2 SO

Potential Suitors

Dell’s potential suitors aren’t going to be much different than any goaltender on the market whether it be Petr Mrazek, Jimmy Howard or Robin Lehner. The New York Islanders are likely looking for a goaltender, while another legitimate possibility could be the Ottawa Senators, who are struggling at that position and might want a fresh face to compete for playing time with one of their veterans. A third option could just be a trade to a elite team like the Pittsburgh Penguins or Tampa Bay Lightning who might want a more dependable backup for the playoff run.

Likelihood of Trade

A weeks ago, it seemed extremely unlikely the Sharks might move Dell as he was the team’s best goaltender. However, Jones seems to have recovered from his struggles as he has played better in his last two games and looks to have coach Peter DeBoer’s confidence again. Dell, on the other hand, hasn’t been on the ice once since the break, suggesting the team wants to make sure that Jones can handle the load if they move Dell. While San Jose is in second place in the Pacific Division, they have a number of teams right behind them and the team might be fighting to make sure they reach the playoffs as opposed to thinking about winning a Stanley Cup this season.

With the team attempting to re-tool as their veterans like Joe Thornton and Joe Pavelski are aging, the team might want to pick up an asset for Dell before they lose him. The team can ensure they get a veteran back in a deal to fill Dell’s shoes for the remainder of the season.

The Odds Of Drafting A Superstar And The 2018 NHL Draft

February 3, 2018 at 12:34 pm CDT | by Zach Leach 2 Comments

Earlier this week, The Athletic’s Tyler Dellow went to work trying to figure out how the Ottawa Senators could maximize their trade return (subscription required) for Erik Karlsson, should the team decide to move the all-world defenseman prior to the NHL Trade Deadline on February 26th or at least before the 2018 NHL Entry Draft on June 22nd. Dellow surmised that in order to get anywhere near a fair return for Karlsson, Ottawa would need to acquire draft picks that could give them the best chance of finding a “franchise cornerstone” to replace him. The best-case-scenario for the Sens would obviously be to land the #1 overall pick in the lottery and the opportunity to draft the consensus top pick, Karlsson clone Rasmus Dahlin – a scenario that would not even require moving Karlsson. However, with the Arizona Coyotes and Buffalo Sabres likely having better lottery odds and another 12 teams having a chance at the top pick as well, its unlikely that the Senators choose first overall. Dahlin’s generational talent also means the lucky team that lands #1 isn’t moving it, even for Karlsson. So what then is the chance of finding a superstar in the draft? Dellow’s analysis produced these results:

First pick: 90 percent,
Second pick: 60 percent
Third or Fourth pick: 15 percent
Picks 5-20: 5 percent
Picks 21-30: 2 percent
Picks 31-60: 1 percent
Picks 61+: .07 percent

While there is a considerable drop-off from the first pick to the second and the second to the third, it’s clear that picks #2 and #3 still hold immense value. Dellow goes on to describe the infrequency with which those picks are moved, citing Alexei Yashin-for-Jason Spezza and the drafting of Henrik and Daniel Sedin are rare recent examples. Dellow’s thesis continues that the current Vancouver Canucks could be a rare team willing to part with a high pick, if it meant landing Karlsson.

However what if Karlsson isn’t traded by the Draft – a situation that is far more likely than the media would make it out to be – would the normally untouchable top three picks be back off the table? Obviously, the results of the draft lottery matter immensely and the #1 pick will surely not be moved this year. More likely than not, #2 is going nowhere as well. Yet, the status of the 2018 draft class leads to much intrigue over the #3 pick, which historically has a 15% chance of landing a superstar. Unlike past years, there is no consensus second-best player in 2018. In some order, Nico Hischier and Nolan Patrick were going 1-2 in 2017, as were Auston Matthews and Patrik Laine in 2016, and no one was going right behind Connor McDavid other than Jack Eichel in 2015. This year’s crop offers a situation unlike the last few seasons, wherein Dahlin is guaranteed to go first overall – and will be off the draft board of everyone but the lottery winner before the draft even begins – but the following picks are unpredictable. At #2, it could be Russian sniper Andrei Svechnikov, sleek Czech forward Filip Zadina, big, skilled Americans Brady Tkachuk or Oliver Wahlstrom, or a D-needy team with the second pick could even go off the board for a defenseman.

The decision on the second overall pick in 2018 will undeniably result in the top player on many teams’ board being selected, but the top player on many other teams’ board falling to #3. If that team at third overall was hoping to take the player selected at #2, now things could get interesting. According to Dellow’s results, the team at #3 has now lost a 45% chance of finding their next franchise player, but could trade out of the pick and still end up with one (or more) top 20 pick(s), each with a 5% chance of becoming a star, as well as possibly an established pick or player. If you put trust into a model like Dellow’s, a deal like this becomes much more about math and odds than simply taking the risk of trading back out of disappointment with the draft order.

Going back to the Karlsson-to-Vancouver hypothetical, imagine that the Canucks land the #3 overall pick while the Senators have a pick in the 5-20 range, either by the lottery or an additional pick from an upcoming trade. Vancouver hypothetically wanted Zadina, who went #2, while the top player on Ottawa’s board was Tkachuk (or maybe a defenseman like Adam Boqvist). Vancouver could, as Dellow proposes, offer the Sens the third pick – and a 15% chance at a star – and a prospect like Olli Juolevi, the fifth overall pick in 2016 – who holds a 5% chance of becoming a star himself – as part of a larger package for Karlsson and a first. Ottawa nets a 20% chance of adding a cornerstone player, including at least one potential replacement on the blue line, and Vancouver holds onto a 5% chance of finding a star of their own with the later first rounder. The 10% loss for Vancouver is more than made up by the gain of a bona fide star in Karlsson. Could a deal like this happen? For sure. Will it? Probably not, but Dellow’s analysis of draft pick values and a seemingly volatile draft board in 2018 helps to illuminate the possibilities of some fascinating, unprecedented deals early on at the 2018 Draft.

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