Custance’s Latest: Projecting Those Most Affected By Flat Cap
The NHL’s Board of Governors (BOG) are in the midst of two days of meetings designed to cover several important topics before wrapping up today. Chief among them – and of particular interest to team executives as well as fans of the sport – is an early projection of the 2017-18 salary cap ceiling. Commissioner Gary Bettman advised the BOG to expect a modest increase, perhaps as much as $2MM, if any at all. Specifically, Bettman suggested the salary cap may remain flat. Naturally, that may present problems for several teams already close to the cap ceiling while pending free agents might find their respective markets depressed due to fewer clubs being in position to take on big salaries.
Craig Custance of ESPN.com wrote about a few teams and players who stand to be affected the most should the salary cap ceiling remain flat for the 2017-18 campaign. Among those he listed were Artemi Panarin, who will be a RFA coming off his ELC and in line for a massive raise. As we already know, Chicago is tight up against the cap and have already been forced to deal away key contributors due to a lack of cap space – Brandon Saad, Patrick Sharp and Teuvo Teravainen, for instance. They’ll likely have another tough decision to make given the situation.
Tampa Bay and their GM, Steve Yzerman, are two others Custance mentions as being impacted by a flat cap. The Lightning are set to watch Tyler Johnson, Jonathan Drouin and Ondrej Palat become RFAs this summer and with just less than $60MM in cap commitments already on the books for 2017-18, it’s highly unlikely that Yzerman will be able to re-sign all three players.
In addition to those already brought up by Custance, there are several other clubs who will have a difficult time navigating the salary cap if the ceiling remains at or near the $73MM mark. Here are a few of those teams:
- Los Angeles Kings – The Kings already have just more than $60MM committed to the 2017-18 salary cap with forwards Tanner Pearson and Tyler Toffoli slated to become RFAs next summer. Toffoli tallied career highs in goals (31) and points (58) in 2015-16 and while his scoring out put is down some this year, he could still easily command upwards of $4MM annually on a new contract. Pearson, meanwhile recorded 36 points last year and is on pace for about that same total this season. That could well push his salary north of $3MM next year.
- New York Rangers – The Blueshirts might be in a bigger bind than the Kings. They have about $63MM tied up in 2017-18 commitments with top-six center Mika Zibanejad and checking forward Jesper Fast, among several others, scheduled to become RFA’s. On top of that, the team will likely be in the market for a blue line upgrade and unless they can find a way to unload one of Dan Girardi or Marc Staal, the Rangers won’t have enough cap space to make an impact addition in free agency.
- Detroit Red Wings – The Red Wings are projected to have less than $5MM in cap space next season with Thomas Vanek hitting free agency. Additionally, five other players will be RFAs, including Tomas Tatar and Tomas Jurco. It’s hard to imagine the Wings being anything more than a fringe playoff contender next season given their current roster and with virtually no salary cap space available next season, as it’ll be tough for the team to improve through free agency.
Snapshots: Nash, Edmonton, Pulkkinen
The New York Rangers announced today that Rick Nash is set to miss the next week with a groin injury. While the Rangers would rather their superstar miss no time at all, the prognosis is much better than it could have been. After the worst year of his pro career in 2016-16, Nash has looked rejuvenated this season with 11 goals and seven assists in 28 games. New York expects him back at full strength as soon as he’s cleared to play next week.
Unfortunately, the timing is not great for the Rangers. With just four wins in their last ten games, the team has cooled off after their hot start and other teams have taken advantage. With the Pittsburgh Penguins and Columbus Blue Jackets set to take over the Metropolitan Division and a suddenly damaged-goods Montreal Canadiens team primed to give up the top spot in the East, New York needs their A-game right now. With Nash out of the lineup, line mate Jimmy Vesey day-to-day, and two games against the Chicago Blackhawks in the next five days, others will have to step up for the Rangers or they will be solidly in third in the division and have missed out on a chance to seize the conference by this time next week.
In other news:
- The Edmonton Oilers today announced that defenseman Mark Fayne has been placed on injured reserve and that David Musil has been recalled from the Bakersfield Condors of the AHL to replace him. Fayne becomes the fifth Oilers defenseman currently on IR, joining Brandon Davidson, Darnell Nurse, Andrew Ference, and Eric Gryba. Rookie Matt Benning has already been pressed into regular service this season and now either Musil will make his first start since April 11th, 2015 tomorrow night against the Philadelphia Flyers or Dillon Simpson, called up on Saturday, will make his NHL debut.
- The Minnesota Wild have recalled forward Teemu Pulkkinen from the AHL’s Iowa Wild and he joined the team before their game tonight against the Toronto Maple Leafs. However, Pulkkinen will be a healthy scratch. After being claimed off of waivers before the season, the former Detroit Red Wings prospect played in eight games with Minnesota, but after scoring just one goal in that span, was demoted before the end of October. A point-per-game player with Iowa thus far, Pulkkinen appears to have outgrown the AHL and will look to earn a full spot with Minnesota this time around.
- The Boston Bruins have sent down Noel Acciari to the Providence Bruins of the AHL. Having just activated Acciari off of the injured reserve, it is likely that the Bruins simply wanted the young winger to get some game time in at the AHL level before re-entering the Boston lineup. With Matt Beleskey sidelined and Frank Vatrano yet to be activated, there is space on the roster for Acciari if they want to call him up sooner rather than later.
Rangers Notes: Nash, Vesey, Puempel
The New York Rangers have been one of the biggest stories of the NHL this season, with their unbelievable start followed by some struggling of late that’s seen them relinquish the top spot in the Metropolitan Division. Still scoring at an incredible rate, the team is now facing some injuries up front to some of their biggest names according to Jim Cerny of The Hockey Writers.
Rick Nash has been taken for an MRI on his groin after leaving the game last night in the second period. Nash has 18 points through the first 27 games and is actually on a similar pace to his career-worst 36 point 2015-16. Groin injuries often linger, so if it’s anything significant it could spell trouble for the remainder of the 32-year old veteran’s season. Nash has one more year remaining after this one at $7.8MM for the Rangers as he nears the end of the eight-year, $62.4MM deal he signed in 2009.
- Jimmy Vesey, the summer’s most sought-after (or at least talked about) free agent is off to a solid start to his NHL career with 16 points in 27 games. The Harvard alum is dealing with an upper-body injury and is currently listed as day-to-day. After going through a considerable lull in November when he scored just three points in eleven games, Vesey got back on the board last night. Especially if Nash is to miss time, the Rangers will need the rookie to step up and handle more responsibility and ice time on the wing if they’re to get back on track.
- Another depth option was Matt Puempel, but after suffering a concussion last night he’s been listed as out indefinitely and been placed on injured reserve. Puempel was claimed by New York off waivers from the Ottawa Senators last month after he was held pointless through 13 games. While he’s fared just slightly better for the Rangers (one goal in six games), his relative youth and pedigree (drafted 24th overall in 2011) suggest he could still develop into a legitimate NHL winger. Last season, Puempel scored 30 points in 34 games at the AHL level, but never really got a chance to prove he could fit into the Senators’ long-term plans. All of a sudden the Rangers depth on the wing, once a strength of the team, is looking rather thin.
Islanders Activate Seidenberg, Place Pelech On IR
As reported earlier today, Dennis Seidenberg has gotten some great news to start December. The team has removed him from their injured reserve list and he’ll make his return tonight against the Washington Capitals. To make room, the team has moved Adam Pelech to IR retroactive to November 28th with an upper-body injury.
Seidenberg had hoped that he could return by Sunday against the Red Wings, but he’ll in fact make it back into the lineup less than three weeks after suffering a broken jaw on a Michael Matheson shot. The veteran defenseman was off to a great start in New York after signing a $1MM deal with the team this offseason. The deal followed a buyout by the Boston Bruins of the last two seasons of his four-year, $16MM extension he signed just after the start of the 2013 season. The 35-year old has eight points in fifteen games this season after suiting up for Team Europe at the World Cup and Germany in Olympic qualifiers this summer.
His return comes at the expense of Adam Pelech though, who was moved to IR following his injury Monday night. Though originally just reported as soreness, he’s obviously in enough pain to keep him out for the minimum of seven days (which would rule him out until Tuesday’s matchup against the New York Rangers). Pelech had originally been an injury replacement for Travis Hamonic, who was originally given a 4-6 week timeline but came back within eight days of his injury.
The Islanders have had a revolving door on their blueline this season, with injuries happening to several players and at times dressing seven defensemen. They’ll look to get back a little bit of stability with the return of Seidenberg, who will make three solid pairings for the team as it looks to get back into the playoff hunt.
Snapshots: Anderson, LeBrun’s Power Rankings, Blues
The Associated Press reports that Ottawa Senators’ net minder Craig Anderson will take another leave of absence to be with his wife during her battle with throat cancer. Anderson will not be available to play Thursday when the Sens take on the Flyers in Ottawa. In turn, the Senators recalled Andrew Hammond and also have Mike Condon ready to go. Ken Warren of the Ottawa Citizen writes that Sens’ bench boss Guy Boucher said that there is no timetable for Anderson’s return but that the earliest he could be back is Saturday. Warren added a quote from Condon who said: “I can’t even begin to imagine what he’s going through and I wish him the best.”
In other NHL news:
- The Chicago Blackhawks remain #1 on Pierre LeBrun’s Power Rankings as the first of December approaches. Though they went 3-3-1 on the annual Circus Trip, the Hawks were able to survive without captain Jonathan Toews, who has missed the past three games. Seated second are the Montreal Canadiens, followed by the New York Rangers, who are tops in scoring in the NHL. Fourth and fifth in LeBrun’s rankings are the Washington Capitals and Pittsburgh Penguins.
The Ottawa Senators jumped six spots to number six, while the Tampa Bay Lightning, St. Louis Blues, Columbus Blue Jackets, and Nashville Predators round out LeBrun’s top ten respectively. In the power rankings basement? The Islanders hold the spot, due to only a pair of wins in November. LeBrun wonders if ownership will still be as patient if similar results follow in December.
- Despite an earlier report indicating that the St. Louis Blues could be cutting ties with AHL affiliate the Chicago Wolves, KSDK Sports Director Frank Cusumano was contacted directly by a Blues Executive who denied such reports. NHL.com’s Lou Korac wrote earlier that the Blues were readying to put a new AHL team in Kansas City, and the report, via his blog “In the Slot,” was posted on KSDK’s site. Though Korac said the Blues have not made the plans official, a source told him that it’s pretty much a “done deal.” That news conflicted with what a Blues executive told Cusumano, saying that, “No decisions are close to being made. We are talking to a lot of people.”
Forbes’ 2016-17 NHL Team Valuations
If you’re looking to buy an NHL franchise, here is your market value. For those who do not know of the world-famous company, Forbes is a leading American business magazine, named for its editor-in-chief, Steve Forbes. The company focuses on financial and business stories in a multitude of industries, including technology, sciences, art, law and, of course, the professional sports industry. Each year, Forbes runs a valuation of sports franchises around the globe, from NFL football in the United States to UEFA “football” in Europe. Today, Forbes released its valuations and rankings of all thirty current NHL teams – with the Vegas Golden Knights not quite ready to be analyzed just yet.
Unsurprisingly, the most successful team in North America’s biggest city reigns supreme over the rest of the league. With deep playoff runs in back-to-back years and a hot start to 2016-17, the New York Rangers are considered to be the NHL’s most valuable franchise with a $1.25B valuation. The Rangers top the chart for the second year in a row, after being denied the top spot for more than a decade prior, and see a 4% bump in their value from last year. Success coupled with some heavy renovations to Madison Square Garden and nearly a nightly sellout rate brings New York the big bucks, as they took in about $219MM in revenue last year, $17MM more than the next in line.
Second and third overall are Original Six Canadian power houses: the Montreal Canadiens and Toronto Maple Leafs. Both hold on to their respective places from last year. However, the Maple Leafs held the top spot for an astonishing ten-year stretch from 2005 to 2014, before being bumped down to #3 last year. Having made the playoffs just once in the last decade, as well as seeing a 13-year sellout streak snapped in 2014-15, there is no doubt that the team has lost some value. A $1.1B valuation for a team that has struggled as much as Toronto has is not too shabby though, and is a testament to the city and its fans. Meanwhile, Montreal joins the Rangers as the only team to bring in over $200MM in revenue in 2015-16. The annual leader in attendance among the seven Canadian NHL teams, Montreal is a titan of industry in Canadian pro sports with a $1.12B valuation. Although both the Canadiens and Maple Leafs lost value this past year (5% and 4% respectively), this is most likely due to the weakness of the Canadian dollar. Both teams continue to excel fiscally, worth much more than any other Canadian NHL team or the Toronto Blue Jays, Toronto Raptors, or likely the entire Canadian Football League combined.
Metropolitan Notes: Berube, Rangers, Del Zotto, Carey
Islanders head coach Jack Capuano and GM Garth Snow plan to meet regarding finding some playing time for goaltender Jean-Francois Berube, reports NHL.com’s Brian Compton (Twitter link). Berube has been with the Isles all season but has yet to appear in a single game.
This is the second straight year he has been in this situation as a third string goalie after he was claimed off of waivers back in October of 2015. Clearly the team thinks highly enough of him to keep him around but with Jaroslav Halak and Thomas Greiss both ahead of him on the depth chart, finding playing time for him has been a challenge; he made only seven NHL appearances last year. It’s clear that New York believes Berube would be claimed if he were to be made available via the waiver wire once again.
The Islanders have put Halak on the trade block but have yet to find a suitable return for him while Greiss is a pending unrestricted free agent. As a result, it seems quite plausible that they may want to protect Berube in next June’s expansion draft in which case they will likely stick with three goalies for the rest of the season which means that Berube will be in limbo for a while longer, even if they do get him into a game or two sooner than later.
[Related: Islanders Depth Chart]
More from the Metropolitan:
- Rangers GM Jeff Gorton is riding quite the hot streak when it comes to his acquisitions since the offseason, suggests Newsday’s Steve Zipay. Of their eight pickups, only Nathan Gerbe (who was brought in to battle for one of the final couple of forwards spots) hasn’t panned out. Considering his contract was mutually terminated last month, there were no real repercussions from that signing either. Meanwhile, players like Mika Zibanejad, Michael Grabner (who is among the league leaders in scoring), Brandon Pirri, Nick Holden, and rookie Jimmy Vesey are all playing key roles for New York and in all but Zibanejad’s case, were brought in via free agency or for a nominal price.
- Flyers defenseman Michael Del Zotto will return to the lineup tonight, notes CSN Philly’s Tim Panaccio. He has been a healthy scratch for the past three games after head coach Dave Hakstol wasn’t pleased with his defensive play. He’s expected to take the place of Brandon Manning, who is believed to have a concussion. Philadelphia is also making some lineup changes up front, moving Michael Raffl onto the front line with Brayden Schenn dropping down into a checking role.
- Washington has re-assigned left winger Paul Carey to Hershey of the AHL, the team announced. He has played in just one game with the Caps so far this season but has 14 points (5-9-14) in 16 minor league contests. The Capitals are off until Thursday so they’ll free up a bit of cap space by sending him down for a few days.
The 2016 All UFA Bargain Team
Organizations generally wait until around the quarter mark of the campaign before making determinations on their team. Are they contenders or pretenders? Do they anticipate being buyers or sellers at the deadline? These are among the questions teams begin to ponder at this point in the season. Subsequently, now seems like a good time to look back at the summer’s free agent signings to see which are outperforming expectations and can safely be called free agent bargains.
Forward
Eric Staal (Minnesota) – Three years, $10.5MM: After a down season in 2015-16 split between Carolina and the New York Rangers, questions surfaced about whether Staal was a legitimate top-line center or if his decline in production was representative of a player past his prime. Staal recorded 10 consecutive seasons – 2005-06 through 2014-15 – in which he recorded at least 53 points but stumbled to a 39-point output last season. Those concerns led to a discounted contract which compensates Staal at the level of a well-paid third liner as opposed to a top-line player.
Staal has rebounded this season and through 20 games with the Wild, the 13-year veteran has registered 15 points. Perhaps a better sign his early-season production may be based more on ability than on luck, Staal is back to averaging close to three shots per game. Last season he averaged just 2.4 shots per contest and for his career he is at 3.3. Staal is currently tied for 57th among forwards in points-per-game; a rank perfectly in line with that of a top-line forward.
Jonathan Marchessault (Florida) – Two years, $1.5MM: Marchessault could prove to be the steal of the summer. He signed a two-year deal with the Panthers worth just $1.5MM this summer after failing to find a permanent role in either Columbus or Tampa Bay. Through 20 games in South Florida, the 25-year-old forward has nine goals and seven helpers and is on pace for a 65-point campaign.
While Marchessault struggled to earn regular NHL work prior to this season, he has an excellent junior and minor league track record. In 306 AHL games, the 5-foot-9, 174-pound wing tallied 98 goals and 262 points. That success at least suggests Marchessault can continue to produce at the level of a top-six forward. That’s a steal for $750K.
Michael Grabner (New York Rangers) – Two years, $3.3MM: Grabner was a solid producer while with the Islanders, averaging 0.30 goals-per-game over parts of five seasons. But after registering just nine goals and 18 points in 80 games with the Toronto Maple Leafs during the 2015-16 campaign, Grabner was available at a bargain price for the Rangers.
All he’s done for the Blue Shirts is register 12 goals, all at even strength, and 16 points in 22 games with the Rangers. He ranks third overall in goals scored while his total at even strength leads the league. He’s also tops in the NHL in plus-minus with a rating of +20. His penalty-killing ability has also been welcome on Manhattan. Perhaps he won’t continue to produce at this level but even then, he’s well on his way to a 20-goal campaign which would be a tremendous return on a $1.65MM investment.
Defense
Brian Campbell (Chicago) – One year, $1.5MM: Campbell was dead set on returning to Chicago as a free agent this summer and he did, at a rate the cap-strapped Hawks could afford. Campbell has eight points in 22 games this season, despite seeing nearly four fewer minutes of ice time per contest than he averaged in 2014-15. Currently, the 37-year-old blue liner is on pace for a 29-point campaign, which is pretty good value relative to Chicago’s minimal commitment.
Patrick Wiercioch (Colorado) – One year, $800K: Wiercioch inked a one-year contract with Colorado after his previous employer, the Ottawa Senators, elected not to submit a qualifying offer to the restricted free agent. Wiercioch has been a good fit on the Avalanche blue line, ranking fifth on the team in scoring with eight points and leading the club with a +2 plus-minus rating. The 26-year-old has been utilized primarily as a third-pair defender and is fifth among the team’s blue liners in average ice time at 17:27 per game.
Goaltender
Chad Johnson (Calgary) – One year, $1.7MM: Johnson was signed by Calgary to ostensibly serve as the understudy to summer trade acquisition Brian Elliott. But while Elliot has struggled in his new surroundings – 3.43 GAA and a 0.882 Save % – Johnson has provided the Flames with steady play between the pipes. In 11 starts this season, Johnson has a GAA of just 1.98 and a Save % of 0.928. Only five goalies who have appeared in at least 10 games have a better GAA than Johnson.
Kings Activate Marian Gaborik From IR
The Los Angeles Kings have activated right wing Marian Gaborik from IR, according to Jon Rosen of LA Kings Insider. Gaborik is expected to take the ice for warm-ups and head coach Darryl Sutter will make the decision of whether the Slovakian forward will make his 2016-17 season debut tonight. A broken foot suffered during the World Cup of Hockey kept sidelined Gaborik all season.
No announcement of a corresponding move has been made but the Kings don’t need to clear a roster spot to accommodate Gaborik. With the 34-year-old winger back in the lineup, the Kings have 21 skaters – 14 forwards and seven defensemen – and two goaltenders.
Currently tied for 15th in the NHL in scoring, the Kings could certainly use the infusion of skill Gaborik brings to the table. A seven-time 30-goal scorer, Gabroik’s production has tailed off in recent seasons, however. He tallied just 12 goals in 54 contests during the 2014-15 campaign but netted 27 in 69 the season before, suggesting he still has something left to offer.
Now entering his 16th NHL season, the 34-year-old Gaborik has scored 386 regular season goals in 933 games. He was originally drafted third overall in the 2000 entry draft by the Minnesota Wild and has also spent time with the New York Rangers and the Columbus Blue Jackets.
Allen’s Latest: Hamilton, Kane, Shattenkirk, Hanzal, Murphy
The USA Today’s Kevin Allen is more than happy to suggest a holiday wish list for a handful of NHL teams. Allen offers advice to the follow clubs:
- New York Rangers: Allen suggests that the Rangers could snap up Dougie Hamilton from the Calgary Flames should they be willing to give up J.T. Miller. But just as quickly as he suggests it, he provides rationale as to why it might be far fetched. First, the financials wouldn’t work with Hamilton’s $5.75MM cap hit. Second, Miller is playing well with 18 points in 21 games while Hamilton has been struggling. For the deal to work, Allen believes the Rangers would have to shed another contract to either Calgary or another team in need of a defenseman (Allen suggests Kevin Klein).
- New York Islanders: The team in Brooklyn is Allen’s next focus and he suggests Evander Kane to the Isles. The losses of Kyle Okposo, Matt Martin, and Frans Nielsen coupled with the poor production from pricey free agent pickup Andrew Ladd makes Kane a reasonable target. However, Allen points out that the Isles do not have the cap room to add Kane’s bulky contract and would have to do some “juggling” in order to make it work. Allen adds that a defenseman would help out Buffalo’s cause if they were willing to talk about Kane.
- Boston Bruins: How many people have suggested Kevin Shattenkirk to Boston? Allen chimes in here as well, believing that the right handed defenseman would be the perfect addition to the blue line. Further, Allen writes that if Boston can convince Shattenkirk to re-sign with them, overpaying a bit would be well worth it.
- Montreal Canadiens: Arizona’s Martin Hanzal would be a great target for the Habs, who Allen feels could use another scorer to make a Stanley Cup run. What would it take? Allen believes a young player and a draft pick.
- Detroit Red Wings: It hasn’t been easy to fill the enormous hole that Nicklas Lidstrom left four seasons ago, and the Wings have struggled to find any solutions. Allen believes the Carolina Hurricanes could provide some help in the way of defenseman Ryan Murphy. Allen predicts that the Red Wings could trade a young forward to land him, but also sees a number of potential suitors for Murphy, namely the Colorado Avalanche, Arizona Coyotes and Vancouver Canucks.