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Trade Candidates: Thomas Hickey

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With the trade deadline approaching, we will be profiling several players in the weeks ahead that have a good chance to be dealt by February 26th.

Thomas Hickey’s name is not one that has been heard often this year: not in regards to trades, not in regards to his impending free agency, not in regards to his performance, not at all, really. Yet, the question is not why, but why not? Hickey is arguably enjoying his best NHL season and is a main reason why injuries didn’t tear the New York Islanders apart. Hickey has come a long way from being a fourth overall pick with chronic injury issues given away on waivers; it’s time to give him his due credit. Hickey is a dark horse candidate to be traded by the deadline if another team realizes his value and the Islanders decide they are better off trading him than keeping him.

Contract

Hickey is in the final season of a three-year, $6.6MM contract signed in 2015. The deal carries a $2.2MM cap hit – which will be count for under $600K by the deadline – and has no trade protection.

2017-18

It’s no secret that allowing goals – a league-high 214 (and it’s not close) – is what separates the New York Islanders from many other similarly skilled contenders. Yet, things could be much worse. Calvin de Haan suffered a season-ending injury in December and Johnny Boychuk has missed more than 20 games due to injury; those injuries could have broken the Isles. Add in Nick Leddy’s struggles in his own zone and the declining play of Dennis Seidenberg and, without Hickey, this could very well be a team far outside of the player picture. Instead, New York currently holds the final wild card spot in the Eastern Conference and are very much in the mix to keep it. Hickey has been a solid two-way presence for the Islanders all season. Beginning the campaign as a frequent healthy scratch to now the third-leading defenseman in total ice time, behind Leddy and Adam Pelech, Hickey’s role has transformed as his performance has improved. Hickey now leads the team in plus/minus by a significant margin, is third among defensemen in scoring, and has claimed a spot on the team’s top penalty kill unit. Hickey also has the second-most defensive zone starts, again behind only Pelech, as he has been relied on for sound defensive play in his own end and his great ability to see the ice and make an outlet pass. On the personal side, Hickey is on pace for 21 points this season, which would be his third-most in the NHL and the best points-per-game rate of his career. Hickey has quietly been very impressive this season, even if the score sheet or the eye test doesn’t seem to point to a star player and, beyond that, has been incredibly valuable to the Islanders.

Season Stats

47 GP, 3 goals, 11 assists, 14 points, +15 rating, 63 shots, 18:07 ATOI, 46.2 CF%

Potential Suitors

Hickey has stepped up and played great for the Islanders in 2017-18. With that well-established, New York is also a team with many injuries on the blue line. Hickey cannot play a bigger role down the stretch for any other team than he has for the Isles. Like more talked-about names such as Nick Holden or Ben Hutton, Hickey will be a depth addition for a contender if he’s traded; a luxury No. 6, 7, or 8 defender. So who needs depth on the left side? The Boston Bruins and Tampa Bay Lightning, both vying for the President’s Trophy, are both eager to add another body to their respective blue lines, but may be unwilling to pay the price for a top name. Hickey would seem to fit nice on either top contender. The Metropolitan rival New Jersey Devils could also greatly benefit from another body on the blue line, but the Isles may be hesitant to trade him to a team also in contention for an Eastern wild card spot.

The best chance for the Isles to both trade Hickey and also not hurt their own Stanley Cup odds would be to look west, where the Dallas Stars and Winnipeg Jets would both like to add another defenseman on the left side, especially one who plays a confident game in his own zone. Either destination would be a good fit for Hickey, where he could work his way into a starting role.

Likelihood Of A Trade

Unlike the aforementioned Holden and Hutton, Hickey is not on a team that is a bona fide seller. The Islanders are still fighting for a playoff spot and, more importantly, to show impending free agent John Tavares that they have a bright future. Hickey has played such a key role for New York, that no one will blame them that if they use him as their own “rental” in order to maintain some semblance of a team that can prevent the opposition from scoring.

However, there are two scenarios in which Hickey becomes far more likely to move. The first is if, over the next nine days, the Islanders’ playoff hopes take a major hit. New York plays its next three games against likely playoff teams, including the Devils, and anything less than two points in that stretch could see their playoff hopes slip away. The second scenario is that, as has been rumored, the Isles acquire one of the top defensemen on the trade market. While that would be a sign that they are all in for this season, even if their acquisition has term on his contract, it could also mean that they hedge their bet by trading away Hickey for the best offer.

If the deafening silence surrounding Hickey means anything, the Islanders are not keen on moving him. Yet, things can always change around the deadline. A loss of playoff odds, a big trade, or even just an overwhelming offer could cause GM Garth Snow to rethink his plan. Give it a 50/50 chance that Hickey is dealt.

Trade Candidates: Nick Holden

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With the trade deadline approaching, we will be profiling several players in the weeks ahead that have a good chance to be dealt by February 26th.

The New York Rangers are selling. That much is well-established. While the main focus of the media is on big names like Ryan McDonagh and Mats Zuccarello, the reality is the only deals that are more likely than not include the team’s impending unrestricted free agents. One such player, and the only Rangers defenseman that fits that description, is Nick Holden. While Holden is not the swift, puck-moving defenseman emphasized by today’s NHL, he still holds value in many facets of the game. In fact, it’s fair to say that Holden has been routinely under-rated throughout his career (at least Patrick Roy thought so). New York knows this too, after acquiring him from Colorado for just a fourth-round pick back in the 2016 off-season only to watch him play a key role on the blue line the past two seasons. Now that they’re on the other side of the table looking to trade him away, they’ll try not to make the same mistake. However, with a “fire sale” potentially about to begin for the Rangers, Holden seems destined to be shipped out for the best offer.

Contract

Holden is in the final season of a three-year, 4.95MM contract extension signed with the Colorado Avalanche in 2014. His cap hit in 2017-18 is $1.65MM, but will count for under $500K at the deadline.

2017-18

Nothing that Holden does on the ice jumps out, though for a defenseman, that can be a good thing. In no way does Holden play a flashy, offensive possession game and his numbers this season prove that. He has just a few goals and a handful of assists on the year, below average Corsi numbers, and almost no role on the power play. Perhaps the most telling detail of his playing style is that the casual hockey fan likely has never heard of him, as his play rarely garners attention. Why then is he playing top-four minutes for the Rangers this year and playing top-pair minutes last year? Holden simply has a solid, no-nonsense game. He plays a safe, dependable style in his own end and can thus be relied on for major minutes without risking a breakdown on defense. Holden is also a physical, but clean player. He has led the Rangers in hits in back-to-back seasons, but does so while taking few detrimental penalties. When given the chance, Holden also has quite the shot and led all Blueshirt blue liners in goal-scoring in 2016-17. It’s easy to say that Holden has taken a step back this season. His offensive totals are way off his pace set last year and his plus/minus and ice time are down as a result. However, as for the hallmarks of his game, Holden is playing just as physical, is blocking more shots, and has improved greatly in turnovers, with fewer giveaways and more takeaways. Holden’s 2017-18 season would give no team any reason to think that he is a game-changer or the answer to all of their problems, but could he be a reliable asset to a contender? Absolutely.

Season Stats

51 GP, 3 goals, 7 assists, 10 points, +4 rating, 12 PIM, 48 shots, 19:00 ATOI, 45.0 CF%

Potential Suitors

Holden fits the bill of a player who gets traded every deadline season –  a responsible depth defenseman who can play reliable hockey when called upon. Every season contenders seems to add a player like this simply out of convenience rather than necessity. Holden is not the type of player who will radically change the fortunes of a contender, but – especially at that cap hit – he is one worth the asset investment as he can provide reliable defense if necessary. Look for the top teams in the league to take a look at Holden in the next two weeks. The Atlantic trio of the Tampa Bay Lightning, Boston Bruins, and Toronto Maple Leafs could all use depth on the blue line and while at times they have all been connected to bigger targets, surely one or more will decide to settle for a lesser addition. In the Metro, the Washington Capitals could really use some defensive depth and experience and the New Jersey Devils could particularly use a more safe, reliable defender given their current goal-tending crisis. In the Pacific, the Los Angeles Kings would make a nice fit, so long as their playoff position is a little firmer by the deadline.

However, the best fit for Holden seems to be the Central’s Dallas Stars. The Stars have little cap space to work with and have admitted that they won’t be major buyers, but the affordable contract of Holden paired with the responsible, hard-nosed game that head coach Ken Hitchcock appreciates makes for a nice match. Dallas is in good position to at least clinch a wild card spot this season and perhaps play spoiler in the postseason, but regardless of the status of Marc Methot, the team is known to be looking for a defenseman and Holden fits the bill for the type of guy they want and can afford to acquire.

Likelihood of a Trade

If the Rangers are serious about their fire sale, then a Holden trade is nearly a certainty. There has been no word on any extension talks, meaning Holden’s days in New York are numbered; no point in keeping him around just to fade away into free agency at the end of the season. The Rangers got Holden for a fourth-rounder in the off-season two years ago and now, two solid campaigns later and at deadline prices, they should be able to get at least that back. If the fire sale is on, they should take what they can get and move on.

With Schneider Out, Devils May Have To Look At Rental Goalie Market

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  • With Keith Kinkaid struggling and Cory Schneider (groin) still out of the lineup with no timetable for a return, Andrew Gross of The Record speculates that the Devils may have to consider adding a goaltender before the trade deadline. New Jersey also has veteran Eddie Lack who is currently the backup but he has struggled mightily in his limited NHL action so far this season.  While it doesn’t appear as if too many goalies of note will be moved within the next couple of weeks, the asking price for some of the veteran depth options shouldn’t be too high.

Trade Candidates: Radim Vrbata

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With the trade deadline approaching, we will be profiling several players in the weeks ahead that have a good chance to be dealt by February 26th.

The last time that the Florida Panthers went out and added a veteran Czech forward, it worked out perfectly. Jaromir Jagr was an All-Star and the Panthers were Atlantic Division champions. GM Dale Tallon may have been hoping that lightning would strike twice when he added Jagr’s countryman, Radim Vrbata, this off-season. It didn’t. In fact, Vrabta’s tenure in Florida has been an unmitigated disaster, as the 36-year-old is on pace to have the worst offensive season of his long, successful NHL career.

Nevertheless, Vrbata has shown time and time again to be a lethal weapon when he finds the right line chemistry and, despite what they say, even on teams other than the Coyotes. Vrbata’s decline in production could be a sign of his age, but some teams may gamble on it instead being a product of his surroundings and will look to acquire the experienced scorer at a bargain price. The Panthers are not as far out of a the playoff picture as some might think – six points back with two games in hand as of this writing – but that won’t stop them from entertaining offers on several players, especially Vrbata. The veteran forward hasn’t worked out in Florida and wouldn’t be much of a loss for the Cats, so a trade could wind up as a win-win for both sides.

Contract

Vrbata signed a one-year deal with Florida this summer that carries a $2.5MM base salary, his cap hit for the year. Vrbata can earn an additional $1.25MM in performance bonuses and, interestingly enough, a trade to a contender could trigger one of them; Vrbata earns $250K if his team makes the playoffs this season. He also earns $250K each for 10 goals, 15 goals, 20 goals, and 45 points. With just 5 goals and 13 points thus far, he realistically has a shot at only $500K in bonuses for 10 goals and a playoff berth. This overage would count against next season’s cap.

2017-18

The myth surrounding Vrbata has always been that he doesn’t perform outside of Arizona. While past campaigns in Colorado, Chicago, and Vancouver have indicated otherwise, this season in Florida has only added fuel to that fire. Vrbata has skated in 35 games for the Panthers this season, missing five games due to injury, five to illness, and another six (and counting) as a healthy scratch. Even when he’s been on the ice, Vrbata has been invisible. He’s outside the top ten in goals, assists, and points among Panthers and his impressive power play production has dried up, reduced to just four points on the year. On top of that, Vrbata has the third-worst plus/minus on the team and, as he has his whole career, plays with little physical or defensive ability. As a result of his poor play, the 16-year NHL veteran is seeing the least ice time of his career. The Vrbata experiment in Sunrise did not work out and will soon be over, either via trade or the end of the season.

Season Stats

35 GP: 5 goals, 8 assists, 13 points, -8 rating, 14 PIM, 78 shots, 13:05 ATOI, 44.3 CF%

Potential Suitors

So who would want to trade for such an uninspiring asset? Unfortunately for Vrbata, the Coyotes aren’t an option as they are as far from a deadline seller as any team could be. However, Vrbata has found success elsewhere before in his career and he can do so again. Especially at this point in his career, Vrbata is the perfect deadline depth acquisition: a hired gun who doesn’t need to be relied upon to be a team’s best player. With the right fit, Vrbata can score in bunches down the stretch and in the postseason. Several playoff-bound teams are known to be looking for a scoring winger, including the Washington Capitals, St. Louis Blues, and San Jose Sharks. All three teams have the infrastructure where Vrbata could settle in to a middle-six role depending on which personnel he fits best with. Top contenders like the Nashville Predators and Tampa Bay Lightning – if the Bolts are willing to bring Vrbata back for a second go-round after his disappointing prior stint – could also use the luxury of bringing in a veteran winger, but could also survive if he doesn’t work out and ends up a frequent scratch.

However, where Vrbata is likely the best fit is not with a bona fide playoff team, but instead a fringe team looking to make a minor addition in hopes of increasing their odds of seeing the postseason. The Calgary Flames, who won’t trade away any high draft picks, might be happy to take a look at Vrbata if the price is a late pick or low-end prospect. The Colorado Avalanche, the team that drafted Vrbata, and New Jersey Devils have both stated that they won’t derail their long-term plans by chasing expensive rentals, but could pursue the affordable Vrbata, while the Anaheim Ducks and Carolina Hurricanes could also be options if they are closer to a playoff berth come deadline day.

Likelihood of a Trade

Predicting whether Vrbata’s 2017-18 performance will outweigh his career production in the eyes of this year’s buyers is impossible. There is a clear need for a veteran winger with a scoring touch on many teams, including some not even mentioned, but whether they target Vrbata over any number of other options (even including Panthers teammate Colton Sceviour) remains to be seen. If anyone does come calling though, it would be a surprise to see Florida turn down the best offer. The Panthers will continue to push for a playoff spot of their own, but Vrbata won’t play a real part in that plan whether he is traded or not. The signing was a failure, but Florida can still turn it into a positive if they are able to get something back in return for trading Vrbata.

Minnesota Wild Trade Mario Lucia, Christoph Bertschy To New Jersey Devils

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The Minnesota Wild have been at the 50-contract limit for some time, making it hard to add anything at the trade deadline. That problem is gone now as the team has traded Mario Lucia and Christoph Bertschy to the New Jersey Devils in exchange for Viktor Loov.

Lucia and Bertschy will provide some minor league depth for the Devils, as neither project to have much of an impact at the NHL level. Lucia was selected in the second round in 2011, but hasn’t been able to generate much offense during his time in the AHL. A World Junior champion with the United States in 2013, Lucia is now 24 and has just 15 points on the season for the Iowa Wild.

Loov on the other hand gives some depth for the Wild on defense, as they deal with an injury to Jonas Brodin and have to force some players into larger roles. The Toronto Maple Leafs draft pick has four NHL games under his belt, but isn’t much more than a minor league option at this point. According to Michael Russo of The Athletic, the Wild are still deciding whether to keep him as an insurance policy on the NHL roster or send him straight to the Iowa Wild.

The biggest impact of the deal is likely for Jordan Greenway, who is closing in on the end of his collegiate career. The Boston University forward is expected to sign with the Wild when his junior season comes to a close, and could make an impact for the team down the stretch this season. A 6’5″ 230-lbs power forward, Greenway has been playing center this season for BU and could add some size and versatility to the Minnesota NHL squad. Before the deal, Minnesota wasn’t able to sign him to an entry-level contract as they were at their roster limit.

Minor Transactions: 02/08/18

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The NHL has nine games on tap for this evening, including some great Western Conference matchups between the Golden Knights-Sharks, Blackhawks-Stars and Avalanche-Blues. With things so tight in the wildcard playoff races, every point counts. Like always, we’ll keep track of all the minor moves of the day right here.

  • The New Jersey Devils have ended Jimmy Hayes’ conditioning stint, as the forward will rejoin the team today. Since conditioning loans don’t remove you from the active roster, the Devils do not need to make a corresponding move to fit him in. Instead, he’ll become an extra option should they feel they need a change in the bottom-six.
  • Adam Erne has been recalled by the Tampa Bay Lightning, as they look for a spark in their lineup. Erne hasn’t played in the NHL this season, but scored three goals in 26 games last year for the Lightning.
  • With Jason Demers set to return to the lineup, Kyle Capobianco is on his way back to the AHL. The young defenseman has still played in just a single NHL contest, but has considerable upside for the Arizona Coyotes.
  • The New York Rangers have recalled Neal Pionk from the AHL according to Steve Zipay of Newsday. Pionk was signed out of the University of Minnesota-Duluth last offseason, and has 17 points with the Hartford Wolf Pack this season. Pionk has a bomb of a shot, and could be given powerplay time if he makes it into the Rangers lineup down the stretch.
  • With Mark Stone still out for the Ottawa Senators, the team has recalled Mike Blunden from the AHL. The Senators will play with 11 forwards and seven defensemen tonight against the Nashville Predators.
  • The Pittsburgh Penguins are dealing with injuries to Patric Hornqvist and Tom Kuhnhackl, meaning they needed another body from the minor leagues. It turns out that will be Teddy Blueger, who is expected to make his NHL debut just in time for the team’s annual “Dads’ Trip.” Blueger was selected in the second round of the 2012 draft, and has 26 points in 45 games for the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins this season.

Alex Burrows Suspended Ten Games

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When Alex Burrows was invited to a in-person hearing with the NHL Department of Player Safety, it became known that the Ottawa Senators forward could be suspended more than five games. While the Senators squared off with the New Jersey Devils last night, Burrows got tangled up with Taylor Hall and seemed to intentionally and maliciously knee Hall in the head repeatedly. Player Safety saw the play the same way and tonight handed down a ten-game suspension for Burrows. Player Safety summed up the altercation as follows:

“In short, for the sole purpose of retribution, Burrows drags an unwilling opponent to the ice, punches him several times, then uses his knee pad to violently inflict more punishment on his opponent’s head… This is a dangerous and unjustifiable attack that runs the risk of severe injury and such plays will not be tolerated by the Department of Player Safety.”

This ten-game ban, more than 12% of the 82-game season and exactly one third of Ottawa’s remaining games, is the longest suspension of the season in the NHL. It’s no surprise that Burrows is the culprit, as the veteran forward has one of the more tarnished reputations in the league when it comes to dirty play. (Remember he bit Patrice Bergeron in the 2011 Stanley Cup Final). In fact, Burrows has already been fined $5,000 earlier this season for roughing, though that’s nothing compared to the $135,000 he is now set to lose.

Burrows does have the right to appeal the suspension, first to commissioner Gary Bettman and then to a neutral arbitrator, but such challenges are rare in the NHL and even more so is unlikely to be successful, given the clear graphic nature of the offense. Burrows will have to sit for ten game, unable to return to the Ottawa lineup until March. For the bottom-dwelling Senators, Burrow’s absence won’t mean the difference between making the playoffs or not. However, it does make last year’s trade, in which the Sens gave up promising prospect Jonathan Dahlen, that much harder to swallow.

 

Ilya Kovalchuk To Again Test NHL Market

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Around this time last year, word got out that former NHL superstar Ilya Kovalchuk was considering a comeback. The big, Russian sniper retired from the league in 2013, before even his 30th birthday and just three years into a massive (and now patently illegal) 15-year, $100MM contract with the New Jersey Devils. Kovalchuk returned home to Russia and had played with the KHL’s powerhouse club, SKA Saint Petersburg, every year since. However, his NHL ambitions had him thinking about a return trip across the Atlantic last summer. For much of the latter half of the season and into the off-season, Kovalchuk’s potential return was one of the hottest topics in hockey circles. Then, on July 4th, mere days into unrestricted free agency, Kovalchuk re-signed with SKA and his triumphant return was no more.

Now, a year later, it seems Kovalchuk is up for round two. The veteran scorer has shown no signs of slowing down in the KHL, already racking up 63 points through 53 games this season, and with the Olympics about to begin, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman believes talk of a potential return is about to heat back up (Thought 27). As Friedman alludes to, Kovalchuk’s re-entry into the NHL will be much simpler this summer as the Devils will no longer possess his rights. Last off-season, Kovalchuk’s only chance of a return – outside of signing with the Devils – was to find a team both willing to sign him to an expensive contract and then trade for his rights from New Jersey. Devils GM Ray Shero remarked after Kovalchuk decided to stay in Russia that Kovalchuk never came to him with a contract offer and no team came to him with a trade proposal, so clearly the interest was low in having to acquire a free agent via trade, especially an older one who had been out of the NHL for several years. This time around, that risk will be much less painless as the Devils will no longer hold his rights. Once he turns 35 on April 15th, Kovalchuk will be removed from the “Voluntary Retirement” list and will be made an unrestricted free agent, capable of negotiating a deal with any team in the league.

So where will he end up? The Hockey News clearly expects him to draw a lot of attention, as they ranked him ninth on their 2018 free agent board. Here at PHR, Kovalchuk was an afterthought in our Mid-Season UFA Rankings, not cracking the top 20. The truth likely lies somewhere in the middle with certain teams having specific interest in his skill set and others unwilling to take the risk on an aging player with a notoriously selfish playing style. As for Kovalchuk himself, Friedman believes that he would prefer to land in New York City. You can cross the Devils off that list; they’re paying $250K in recapture penalties every year until 2025, so they’re not giving Kovalchuk another dime. Plus, if New Jersey really wanted him, the two sides would have struck a deal last year. So that leaves the Rangers and Islanders as Kovalchuk’s Big Apple options. With John Tavares and possibly Josh Bailey and Calvin de Haan to re-sign, the Isles are not likely suitors. The Rangers on the other hand tend to be a team that’s often interested in the headline-making acquisition and, with Rick Nash coming off the books, have the cap space to add some salary. Kovalchuk and the Rangers could be a pairing to watch for this summer.

Snapshots: Devils, Koekkoek, Jerabek

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The New Jersey Devils have been a better story than anyone expected this season, jumping from the first-overall pick in June 2017 to third place in the Metropolitan Division as we sit here today. That unexpected success though often comes with hard decisions come the trade deadline, a situation Devils GM Ray Shero is familiar with.

When speaking with Mike Morreale of NHL.com, Shero was clear that he would not deviate from the long-term plan he had for the Devils before the season. He believes that his team will avoid the rental market at their current costs, but will stay open to “hockey deals” over the next few weeks. Shero of course already added Sami Vatanen in a surprising move earlier this season, trading away long time Devils forward Adam Henrique.

  • Slater Koekkoek was afforded a rare opportunity to log some higher minute totals while Victor Hedman was out for the Tampa Bay Lightning, and GM Steve Yzerman believes he showed well in his limited exposure. Yzerman told Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet as much, who, in his latest 31 Thoughts column, suggested that the Ottawa Senators were among teams showing interest in the young defenseman. Koekkoek was selected 10th-overall in 2012 but has never been able to establish himself as a full-time NHL player. Scheduled to become a restricted free agent in the summer, perhaps the Lightning will look to give him another opportunity elsewhere.
  • Speaking of opportunity, that’s all Jakub Jerabek wanted when he signed a contract with the Montreal Canadiens last offseason. Jerabek, 26, left the KHL after one excellent season in order to come to North America, and has acquitted himself well in his debut with Montreal and the Laval Rocket of the AHL. Eric Engels of Sportsnet reports that Jerabek very much enjoys playing in Montreal, and though no contract negotiations have taken place just yet, the player would welcome them at some point. Because of his advanced age, Jerabek was forced to sign just a one-year deal with the Canadiens, and will be an unrestricted free agent in July.

Alex Burrows Waives Right To In-Person Hearing

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Alex Burrows had been offered an in-person hearing with the Department of Player Safety to defend his actions in last night’s Ottawa-New Jersey game, but has decided to decline that option and instead will speak over the phone. Because they offered him the in-person meeting, the NHL retains the right to suspend Burrows for more than five games.

Burrows was involved in an incident in front of the Ottawa net last night when he was tangled up with Taylor Hall. When the two players ended up on the ice, Burrows seemed to try and land blows with his knee to Hall’s head.

The 36-year old forward has been suspended and fine by the league before, and has a reputation of playing close to the line of legality. The telephone hearing will be held this afternoon.

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