Examining Salary Cap Recapture In The Shea Weber Trade
*This story was originally published on June 30th, 2016 just days after the trade occurred. With Weber shut down due to a season-ending foot injury in 2018, it seems relevant to bump it to the top of the site. While the injury is nowhere near career-threatening, it will obviously bring the trade back to the forefront of debate in Montreal. This piece gives additional context to the implications that trade has for both franchises.
One element that was lost in the frenzy that was Wednesday afternoon was the potential salary cap recapture repercussions for Nashville stemming from yesterday’s Shea Weber for P.K. Subban trade. Despite the fact that Weber is gone, the Predators could still very well be on the hook for a sizable cap hit several years down the road.
The structure of Weber’s contract is now outlawed starting from the 2013 Collective Bargaining Agreement. The overwhelming majority of his salary is paid out in the first five years of his 14 year deal with four years at just $1MM in salary tacked on at the end. That was done, of course, to lower the cap hit.
The CBA instituted a cap recapture penalty as a way of penalizing those who, in their view, openly circumvented the salary cap by adding on years with such a low salary that it couldn’t reasonably be expected that the player would actually play out the full contract. In Weber’s case, he makes $106MM of the salary in the first 10 years of his contract and just a total of $4MM in the final four years combined.
Simply put, the salary cap recapture calculation looks at the sum of the salary paid to the player compared to the cap hit they were charged over the same time period. Any cap savings over that time become eligible for recapture.
In Nashville’s case, they paid $56MM in salary while accruing a total cap charge of $31,428,572. The difference – $24,571,428 – becomes eligible for recapture.
Should Weber retire at any point prior to the conclusion of his contract in 2025-26, the Predators would be subsequently be imposed a cap recapture penalty equivalent to that amount divided by the number of years remaining on the contract. If Weber were to retire with just 1 season left on his deal, they would have to take the entire $24+MM penalty in 2025-26. If he were to retire with, say, four years remaining though, that total would be divided by 4, resulting in a cap recapture penalty of $6,142,857 in each of those years up until the conclusion of 2025-26.
Suffice it to say, GM David Poile is taking on a big potential risk down the road if Weber does indeed decide to retire before his contract expires. Had Weber stayed with the Preds longer, eventually the difference between salary and cap charge would have shrunk, lowering their potential exposure to recapture. But clearly Poile feels the reward is worth it to add Subban to an already dynamic group of defensemen in Nashville.
Morning Notes: Nash, Karlsson, Weber
Trade deadline rumors are coming fast and furious these days, and NHL Network analyst Brian Lawton took to Twitter to express his thoughts on several topics this morning. Lawton contends that a deal for Rick Nash will definitely happen, and it’s just up to the New York Rangers at this point to decide which package is the best offer. There have been previous reports that linked Nash to Nashville, Dallas, Winnipeg, Columbus and Boston, though it’s not clear who has actually put forward an offer for the veteran winger.
Lawton also states that Ryan McDonagh is “closer to being moved then [sic] anyone realizes” which make earlier reports that the Boston Bruins are still in the mix for the New York captain that much more interesting. The Rangers are clearly one of this year’s biggest sellers, looking to give themselves something of a new slate to work with in 2018-19.
- Erik Karlsson rumors have dominated the last few days, and Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic (subscription required) notes that even the Nashville Predators have checked in on the Ottawa Senators’ captain. One might assume that Nashville would have no interest given their glut of outstanding defensemen, but as LeBrun writes, GM David Poile “leaves no stone unturned.” Asking on the kind of return the Senators are expecting for Karlsson would be good information to have even if the Predators have no intention of acquiring him, which can often lead to speculation of interest where there is none (though, that can’t necessarily be said for this specific case).
- LeBrun also notes on Twitter that interest is picking up on Michael Grabner, and that teams are “coming harder at NYR today it seems.” That increased interest could lead to an incredibly exciting weekend for Rangers fans looking to the future.
- Unfortunately it looks like Shea Weber‘s season may be over, as Darren Dreger of TSN reports that the team will update his status later today. Weber has consulted two specialists in recent days, and with Montreal clearly out of the playoffs could aim at the beginning of next season as a return date.
Eeli Tolvanen Expected To Join Predators After KHL Season
In a move that many Nashville Predators fans have been hoping for since his KHL debut, Eeli Tolvanen is expected to join the team after his season is over. That’s what Craig Custance of The Athletic (subscription required) reports in his latest, quoting assistant GM Paul Fenton:
We’ll have a contract in place to be able to execute and have him come over here. That’s the plan. Funnier things have happened. I don’t want to say 100 percent. I never do that in our business. Yes, our plan is to have him.
Tolvanen is heading back to Jokerit after an outstanding Olympic performance for Finland, scoring nine points in five games. The 18-year old forward has found success everywhere he’s gone this season, breaking KHL records, leading Finland in scoring at the World Juniors and now impressing at the Olympic level.
Armed with an outstanding shot, Tolvanen can find open space in the offensive zone and create goals from any angle. He isn’t limited to a single kind of release, and has the creativity to find teammates when necessary. He fell in the entry draft due to concerns about his commitment and a last minute decision by Boston College to not admit him. Nashville scooped him up at 30th-overall despite being ranked much higher by nearly every scouting service, including eighth among North American skaters by NHL Central Scouting.
As the Predators ready for the trade deadline, the promise of Tolvanen could change their plans. If they believe he’s destined to jump right into a substantial role on the team and be able to contribute offensively—something that is not guaranteed, despite his success this season in different environments—they could slow down their pursuit of other scoring options.
Other teams are sure to ask about Tolvanen in the coming days, but as we wrote recently he seems as close to untouchable as anyone can get in the NHL.
Deadline Primer: Nashville Predators
With the trade deadline fast approaching, we will be taking a closer look at the situation for each team. Where do they stand, what do they need to do, and what assets do they have to fill those needs? Next up is a look at the Nashville Predators.
Nashville Predators GM David Poile isn’t scared of making a big move. He’s done it time and time again over his career, with recent examples like P.K. Subban, Ryan Johansen and Kyle Turris. He was rewarded last year with a trip to the Stanley Cup Finals, though the Predators would ultimately come up short in their quest for a championship. This season, there is no doubt that Nashville is one of the best teams in the Western Conference and could take a shot at the trade deadline to try and secure another long playoff run.
Record
35-14-9, first in Central Division
Deadline Status
Buyer
Deadline Cap Space
$14.9MM full-season cap hit, 0/3 retained salary transactions, 43/50 contracts per CapFriendly
Draft Picks
2018: NSH 1st, NSH 3rd, NSH 4th, NSH 5th, NSH 6th, NSH 7th
2019: NSH 1st, NSH 2nd, NSH 4th, COL 4th, NSH 5th, NSH 6th, NSH 7th
Trade Chips
Because the Predators have used their own home grown players in many of those big trades, the team has still managed to keep many of their draft picks and continue developing prospects. Many of the speculative trades begin with Eeli Tolvanen, but he should be about as close to untouchable as you can get for the Predators. The Finnish forward is breaking records for his age in the KHL, and excelling in the Olympics for his country. He’ll be a big part of the Predators future, and could even make an impact in the playoffs this year.
Beyond Tolvanen, the Nashville prospect pipeline is still healthy. Dante Fabbro is one of the league’s top defensive prospects, Victor Ejdsell was pursued by several teams and is proving why in Sweden this year, and Emil Pettersson looks like a late-round steal after finding early success in the AHL. There’s no doubt that some of their top prospects will be in discussions if Nashville really gets into the market.
From the NHL roster, one has to wonder if someone like Colton Sissons could be sacrificed given that Mike Fisher is coming back very soon. Sissons has shown that he could develop into a solid third-line center for any team in the NHL, and is under contract for another season at the league minimum. He’d be an interesting option for a team like the New York Rangers who’ve made it clear they are seeking roster-ready bodies. Obviously the Predators aren’t looking to deal Sissons, but if there is a big move in the works they may need to sell at least one NHL-level player.
Five Players To Watch For: F Frederick Gaudreau, D Alexandre Carrier, F Pontus Aberg, F Colton Sissons, F Emil Pettersson
Team Needs
1) Scoring Winger: If we’re being honest, the Predators don’t desperately need anything.
What they could use more than anything though is another top-6 option on the wing, and they’ve been linked to just about every available option. Today, Darren Dreger of TSN tweeted that Nashville has interest in Tomas Tatar of the Detroit Red Wings. Tatar is under contract through 2020-21, which might make it a bit tricky for the Predators. Though Poile has signed team-friendly deals with many of his stars, Ryan Ellis (UFA) and Kevin Fiala (RFA) are both free agents after next season and will require substantial raises.
The team has also been linked to Rick Nash as a potential rental option, which could make more sense given their vast available cap room at the deadline. The Predators could add any of the players on expiring deals without worry, making them one of the most interesting teams to follow over the next few days.
Tolvanen May Not Make Big Impact This Year If Signed
- Adam Vingan of the Tennessean writes that while the Nashville Predators are open to signing top prospect and Finnish Olympian Eeli Tolvanen to an entry-level deal when his KHL season ends (anytime between early March and late April), don’t count on him making a major impact to the team. While Tolvanen, the team’s first-round pick in 2017, would be a cheaper alternative to making a major trade for a top-six forward, an 18-year-old likely will struggle initially, although a few players in similar situations fared well in the playoffs. He points out that Boston Bruins defenseman Charlie McAvoy had three assists in six first-round playoff games last year and the New York Rangers’ Chris Kreider did the same back in 2012 when he scored five goals in 18 postseason games.
Nashville Predators “All In” On Rick Nash
In his latest 31 Thoughts column for Sportsnet, venerable hockey insider Elliotte Friedman confirms what has been rumored for the last few weeks: the Nashville Predators are going hard after Rick Nash. Friedman states that the Predators are “all in” on the New York Rangers forward, but wonders if they’ll eventually be able to outbid the field to land him before the trade deadline.
According to other reports, the Rangers are looking for a three-piece return for Nash, similar to the ask for Buffalo’s Evander Kane. That might seem like a lot to give up for the Predators, who have already traded two good young players in Samuel Girard and Vladislav Kamenev and don’t have their 2018 second-round pick or 2019 third-round pick.
Nash has been tenuously linked to the Dallas Stars as well, while the Toronto Maple Leafs are known to be among his approved trade list. While there are surely others, the Predators seem to be the front-runners for the time being. New York has made it clear they’re going to sell off their expiring assets this season, and Nash could be the jewel of the rental market.
Toronto Maple Leafs On Rick Nash Approved Trade List
The New York Rangers have a group of 12 teams that they could send Rick Nash without his approval, after they asked him recently to submit his 18-team no-trade list. It isn’t clear who most of those 12 teams are, but Frank Seravalli of TSN confirms that the Toronto Maple Leafs are one of them. Nash recently said he had included Canadian contenders in his approved group, of which really there are only three: the Maple Leafs, Calgary Flames and Winnipeg Jets. It’s unclear if the latter two are among the dozen teams, though Seravalli writes the Nashville Predators and Dallas Stars are both “believed to be” among the approved destinations.
It doesn’t seem like the Maple Leafs have much use for the winger as they continue to deal with a roster crunch of their own, but there is a connection to head coach Mike Babcock from international competition. Nash was on two gold-medal winning clubs with Babcock, exquisitely playing a checking role alongside Jonathan Toews at times.
Nash will almost certainly be dealt by the February 26th trade deadline, and could even set the market for rental forwards by landing the Rangers a hefty package. There have been reports that New York is looking for as many as three assets for the 33-year old forward, a big ask for someone who can only give you a few months of production. While Toronto is now confirmed to be on the list, they don’t seem like a match to enter the bidding, even if the price does drop to a reasonable amount.
Trade Candidate: Thomas Vanek
With the trade deadline approaching, we will be profiling several players in the weeks ahead that have a good chance to be dealt by February 26th.
New coach, new expectations, but in the end, the Vancouver Canucks don’t look that much different. Vancouver finds themselves in seventh place in the Pacific Division, once again not competing for a playoff spot. The Canucks had higher expectations this year when they decided to add some veteran depth to the team in hopes it might spark their young core to play at a higher level. The team does have hope as they have a large amount of talented young prospects that aren’t too far away from joining the team over the next few years, but they must answer the question if they want to move out veteran scorer Thomas Vanek.
Contract
Vanek is currently finishing up the one-year contract he signed this offseason with Vancouver at $2MM. He will be an unrestricted free agent this offseason.
2017-18
At age 34, many teams believed that Vanek’s game may have passed him by and many of those teams chose to look elsewhere this offseason. He wasn’t signed until Sept. 1 by Vancouver, but he continues to prove that he can score in this league. He currently has 16 goals in 56 games and has impressed management to the point that they are considering re-signing him to an extension.
While Vanek has been fortunate enough to play on a line with rookie sensation Brock Boeser, the veteran has shown he can still score clutch goals and set up his teammates as well. He is quite versatile and is capable of playing anywhere in the lineup if needed. His lack of speed, however, doesn’t help him.
Season Stats
55 GP, 15 goals, 22 assists, 37 points, -15 rating, 24 PIM, 102 shots, 13:59 ATOI, 44.7 CF%
Potential Suitors
Vanek could have a number of suitors, because of the fact that he won’t be very costly. The Detroit Red Wings, who traded away Vanek at the trade deadline a year ago, only received an average prospect and a third-round pick from the Florida Panthers. So, many teams that are short on salary cap space and picks may find Vanek to be an interesting option, ranging from the Pittsburgh Penguins to the Nashville Predators.
One possibility could be the Boston Bruins, who are desperate for depth on the wings. Vanek might be a good fit to join the Bruins second or even third line and provide even more offense during a playoff run. His penalty killing skills might also be helpful for Boston as well.
Likelihood Of A Trade
It’s more of a 50-50 proposition. The team could easily find a take for Vanek, but will the Canucks get true value for him? Perhaps if the team can get a second-rounder for Vanek, then it might be worth it, but at the same time, there are rumors that Daniel Sedin and his brother Henrik Sedin are considering returning for another year next season. The question then is, should they keep Vanek around for another year.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Eastern Notes: Hurricanes, Nash, McDonagh, Van Riemsdyk
The Carolina Hurricanes are by no means out of the playoff hunt. Afterall, they have won two in a row and currently are clinging to the second and final wildcard spot in the Eastern Conference. However, the team might end up being sellers at the trade deadline as the young team have quite a few trade chips that could help this team down the road, according to The Athletic’s Eric Duhatschek (subscription required).
The scribe writes that the Hurricanes have quite a bit of depth on the blueline and it should get deeper soon. The team already has captain Justin Faulk leading the defense and although he’s not having as good of a campaign as a year ago, he might make for a good trade chip especially as the defensive salary cap will rise for the team next season. Carolina already have Jaccob Slavin and Brett Pesce under contract and both their extensions will kick in next year at a combined $9.325MM. Defenseman Noah Hanifin will be a restricted free agent next year and should get a solid raise. The team has rookie Haydn Fleury back next year and likely will have 2016 first-rounder Jake Bean coming in. This might be the right time to make a move for a scoring forward.
Duhatschek also notes that the team, who recently waived Marcus Kruger and Josh Jooris, could also look to move another pair of veterans at the deadline including Derek Ryan and Lee Stempniak. Ryan is an excellent face-off specialist and would make a solid bottom-six center and is an excellent story, while Stempniak, is starting to find his groove after missing much of the season. Ryan has 11 goals and 26 points this season, while Stempniak has played in just 14 games, but has one goal and five assists so far.
- The New York Post’s Larry Brooks writes that New York Rangers winger Rick Nash has set his 12-team trade approved list and the veteran revealed that he chose teams based on their chances to win the Stanley Cup this season. “I included the teams that I think have the best chance of winning the Stanley Cup and are also places I think would be good for my family,” the 33-year-old father of two young children said. “And, yes, that does include teams in Canada. I’m not excluding that as a possibility.” Nash says he would consider changing the list if a certain team not on the list shows interest in him. Brooks adds that several teams have shown interest including the Dallas Stars, Nashville Predators, San Jose Sharks, St. Louis Blues, Boston Bruins, Winnipeg Jets, Tampa Bay Lightning and possibly the Toronto Maple Leafs.
- Brooks also notes that the Tampa Bay Lightning have quite a bit of interest in adding defenseman Ryan McDonagh at the trade deadline. They believe that with Victor Hedman and McDonagh at the blueline, the chances Tampa Bay could win a Stanley Cup would increase heavily. However, the scribe notes that the Rangers should demand 19-year-old defensive rookie Mikhail Sergachev as the asking price for the veteran defenseman.
- The Toronto Maple Leafs have gotten some interest in veteran forward James van Riemsdyk recently, Sportsnet’s Mike Johnston said during Saturday’s Headlines’ segment on Hockey Night in Canada. Johnston said two teams were told they have no plans to trade van Riemsdyk before the deadline. The 28-year-old goal scorer, who has 22 goals so far this year, will be an unrestricted free agent this year, but according to Johnston, has not received any contract extension offers yet. Sportsnet’s Nick Kypreos added on the segment that the main reason is because van Riemsdyk refuses to take a hometown discount.
Predators Targeting Forward Help At The Trade Deadline
With the Predators having a very strong top-four on the back end plus four others on their active roster, GM David Poile acknowledged to NHL.com’s Mike Zeisberger that he’s happy with their situation on the back end and that if they look to add between now and the February 26th trade deadline, it would be up front. Last season, Nashville used 17 different forwards in the first two rounds of the playoffs due to injuries so it’s no surprise that Poile is a proponent of adding depth at that position. They’ll eventually get some depth down the middle when Mike Fisher officially signs so their focus may be to add on the wings over the next two weeks.