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Free Agent Focus: Minnesota Wild

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Free agency is now just under a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in late July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Minnesota has been busy in recent days with some re-signings but still has two impact RFAs and several veteran UFAs in need of new contracts.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Kirill Kaprizov – Technically speaking, Kaprizov doesn’t even qualify for restricted free agency as he doesn’t have enough service time to qualify to be tendered an offer sheet but he needs a new deal nevertheless.  Minnesota is believed to have already made a long-term offer to the 24-year-old but such a contract doesn’t appear to be to Kaprizov’s liking.  Something shorter-term that sets him up for a new deal in a more favorable cap environment while being in the prime of his career would be preferable on his part though not for the Wild.  With Kaprizov not having arbitration rights either, his leverage is limited to stalling in the hopes of getting a better offer from Minnesota so this is a deal that could be slow-played longer into the summer.  Regardless of how long it takes, he will make substantially more than the $925K base salary (which includes the signing bonus) he made on his entry-level deal this season.

F Kevin Fiala – Despite the last two seasons being shortened by the pandemic, the winger has reached the 20-goal mark each time for only the second and third time of his career.  Fiala has settled in nicely with the Wild after being acquired back at the 2019 trade deadline in exchange for Mikael Granlund.  The 24-year-old has arbitration eligibility for the first time and is two years away from reaching unrestricted free agency.  If a long-term deal is worked out that buys out some of those UFA-eligible years, Fiala may have a shot at doubling the $3MM AAV he had on his bridge contract.  Worth noting, his qualifying offer stands a little higher than that at $3.5MM.

Other RFAs: F Will Bitten, F Brandon Duhaime, F Mason Shaw

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

F Nick Bonino – Statistically speaking, Bonino had a similar season on a points per game basis compared to his time with Nashville (who traded him to Minnesota last fall).  At this stage of his career, he’s best served as a third-line center and as someone who is routinely above average at the faceoff dot, he should have considerable interest on the open market.  However, spending on the bottom six dried up last summer and with the cap staying flat, that’s likely to continue this summer.  Accordingly, it would be surprising to see the 33-year-old match the $4.1MM AAV he got from the Predators in his last trip to free agency back in 2017.

F Marcus Johansson – Last season didn’t go well for Johansson as he managed just six goals and eight assists in 36 games.  However, he had two straight 30-point seasons before that and going back to his time in Washington, he had five seasons of 44 or more points.  There’s a track record of offensive success in the right environment.  He was patient two years ago and landed a two-year, $9MM contract from Buffalo but he won’t have a shot at that this time around.  However, he’s an intriguing middle-six option out there, especially if he’s open to a one-year contract to try to boost his value and show he has something left in the tank.

D Ian Cole – The veteran was acquired early in the season to stabilize their third pairing and he did just that, logging nearly 16 minutes a night over 52 games while providing plenty of physicality.  Cole should have a decent-sized market this summer but it will be in that limited capacity, not as a top-four player which is how he was able to sell himself three years ago in free agency when he managed to land a $4.25MM price tag.  Half of that may be the ceiling this time around.

Other UFAs: D Matt Bartkowski, D Louis Belpedio, F Joseph Cramarossa, F Gabriel Dumont, G Andrew Hammond, D Brad Hunt, F Luke Johnson, D Ian McCoshen, D Dakota Mermis, F Kyle Rau

Projected Cap Space

Minnesota finds themselves with just under $16MM in cap space which may sound like a lot at first but a significant chunk of that will need to be allocated to Kaprizov and Fiala.  By the time they fill out their roster with some depth players, that will basically be it for summer spending.  As a result, if GM Bill Guerin wants to add a significant piece to his roster, that will likely have to come via the trade route.  If that doesn’t happen, it could be a relatively quiet summer for the Wild.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Contract Talks Progressing Between Wild And Brennan Menell

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While Minnesota has been active in re-signing players in recent days with new deals for centers Joel Eriksson Ek and Nick Bjugstad, they also are in discussions on a new contract for defenseman Brennan Menell, reports Michael Russo of The Athletic (subscription link).  Talks have picked up in recent weeks with a formal offer on the horizon.  The 24-year-old is believed to be seeking a one-way contract to return from the KHL and put up the numbers to justify such an offer as he was second in the league in points by a blueliner this season, notching 38 points in 47 games.

Elsewhere around the hockey world:

  • As part of his efforts to be traded to a place closer to his son, Blackhawks defenseman Duncan Keith has changed agents and is now represented by Gerry Johannson of The Sports Corporation, notes Postmedia’s Jim Matheson. He had previously been repped by RWG’s Ross Gurney.  Johannson happens to be based out of Edmonton which Matheson believes could help the veteran eventually wind up with the Oilers although due to expansion, such a move wouldn’t come until after Seattle picks their team.
  • Draft prospect William Eklund intends on remaining in Sweden next season before coming to the NHL, relays Lance Lysowski of The Buffalo News (Twitter link). The 18-year-old is a consensus top-ten pick and accordingly, his entry-level contract would supersede the final year on his deal with Djurgarden but instead, he’ll stay with them and try to build on a 23-point season, impressive numbers for someone that can still be in their junior system for two more years.
  • The Maple Leafs have added some defensive depth as their farm team announced the signing of blueliner Ben Finkelstein to a one-year, minor-league deal. The 23-year-old was a seventh-round pick of Florida back in 2016 but didn’t sign in 2020 after wrapping up his college career.  Finkelstein spent this season with Greenville of the ECHL, averaging nearly a point per game with 11 goals and 21 assists in 35 games.

Nick Bjugstad Re-Signs With Minnesota Wild

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The Minnesota Wild have re-signed another big-bodied forward, inking Nick Bjugstad to a one-year contract. The deal will carry just a $900K salary and keeps Bjugstad from unrestricted free agency.

Given that the 28-year-old forward is coming off a six-year, $24.6MM contract, getting him signed for just $900K seems like a huge win for the Wild. Even if he has struggled to produce the kind of numbers he put up early in his career with the Florida Panthers, he is still a reasonably effective option that has experience at both center and wing. In 44 games this season with Minnesota, he scored six goals and 17 points, adding in one goal in six playoff matches.

That’s a pretty nice value for the Wild, especially since it carries basically no risk as a one-year deal. The entire cap hit could be buried in the minor leagues if necessary, but that seems unlikely given his history in the NHL. As a 22-year-old for the Panthers, the 6’6″ center scored 24 goals, leading to the big extension. A few years later he was moved to Pittsburgh, before eventually coming to Minnesota last fall for, well, nothing. Bjugstad was traded for a conditional seventh-round pick that the Penguins did not receive because he did not meet the conditions.

Now, on such a low-cost deal, Bjugstad can fill a bottom-six role for Minnesota without the pressure or expectations that come with such an expensive contract. Perhaps that leads him to his past success, but at worst, it’ll just cost the Wild a few hundred thousand wasted dollars.

Offseason Checklist: Minnesota Wild

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The offseason is in full flight with only two teams still standing.  We continue our series which examines what those eliminated teams need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Minnesota.

Back in 2019-20, Minnesota went on a late run under then-interim head coach Dean Evason to help secure them a spot in the expanded playoffs.  They went a step further this year, finishing a solid third in the West Division and gave Vegas a good run in the first round, ultimately falling in seven games.  GM Bill Guerin has a decent core to work with but a few things need to be addressed for them to try to move up in the Western Conference next season.

Resolve The Parise Situation

One of the key storylines for them down the stretch was the usage of veteran winger Zach Parise.  More specifically, the storyline was that he was a frequent healthy scratch.  Through last season, the 36-year-old was still putting up numbers worthy of a spot on Minnesota’s second line and while his contract was an overpayment, he was still one of their stronger contributors.

That changed in 2020-21.  Under Evason, Parise’s role and ice time steadily dropped to the point where he was seeing fourth line ice time late in the year when he was in the lineup.  That was a tough pill to swallow for someone who has been a fixture in their lineup for nearly a decade.

There are still four years remaining on his contract with an AAV of just over $7.5MM.  If he has indeed fallen that far down the depth chart, him spending the next four years as the designated scratch or a fourth liner isn’t a viable solution.  Finding another spot for him would be beneficial for both teams but it’s not as simple as simply buying him out.  The front-loaded nature of the contract makes a buyout quite punitive to the point where the post-buyout AAV in some of the years is just under $7.5MM.

Accordingly, this will need to be a trade if they want to move him.  While Parise does have a no-move clause, it wouldn’t be surprising if he was willing to waive it to get an opportunity for some playing time.  While there aren’t going to be teams wanting to absorb the contract outright, there should be some swaps of bad contracts this summer and there may be a fit there.  Failing that, a lower-budget team might be okay with taking on the lower-priced years of the deal with the right incentive(s) attached.

Of course, there is another element that has to be considered that isn’t in effect for most other bad contracts and that’s salary cap recapture.  Parise – along with teammate Ryan Suter – are on now-illegal deals with how much money was paid out up front.  There’s a significant penalty if Parise retires early and if he’s not on the roster, there isn’t the ability to figure out some sort of injury to put him on LTIR and convince him to not file his papers.

It’s not going to be an easy fix and there are problems with pretty much every scenario.  Either Parise needs to accept his reduced role or Guerin will need to be very careful in finding a new home for him, ideally with a side agreement that says Parise plays out his contract somewhere else.  Usually, managing a situation with an overpaid veteran isn’t overly difficult but it could be here as a result.

Re-Sign Key RFAs

Guerin has already taken care of one key restricted free agent with the recent eight-year, $42MM extension that was given to center Joel Eriksson Ek.  However, there are still two more to go.

Kirill Kaprizov sits on top of this list; after a year and a half off from the seemingly annual debate on will he or won’t he sign that went on for years, Kaprizov’s contract situation is once again at the forefront.  This isn’t a case of Minnesota not wanting to pay up or Kaprizov looking to go back home as recent suggestions to that effect feel like more of a tactic than a real option.  The Wild want to work out a max-term contract that will lock up the 24-year-old through the prime of his career.  However, this isn’t a great financial climate for Kaprizov to agree to such an arrangement.  Accordingly, he wants something shorter term that will allow him to cash in once the salary cap goes up.  He is three years away from UFA eligibility and merely handing him a two-year bridge deal would easily open up the door for him to elect arbitration after that and walk to free agency at 27.    That’s not something Minnesota wants to do.  Finding a compromise that both sides are content with will be difficult which is why these talks could drag out for a while.

Another winger is also in need of a new deal in Kevin Fiala.  His two full seasons with the Wild have yielded his best two statistical years in terms of goals, assists, and points per game which has him in great shape heading into his first time with arbitration eligibility.  He’s only two years away from hitting the open market so there is a risk in a short-term deal here as well.  Unfortunately, they only have $16MM in cap space so signing Fiala and Kaprizov to contracts that buy out some UFA years will be difficult.  Even if it’s a short-term contract, Fiala will be earning a significant raise on the $3MM AAV he had on his most recent contract.

Add Center Help

Yes, this perpetual need still exists.  Guerin is undoubtedly thrilled that Eriksson Ek has emerged as a legitimate top-six center which gives them one to work; that’s better than what it had been before.  But there is still a lot of work to be done at this position.

Last offseason, Minnesota brought in three players to try to help down the middle in Nick Bonino, Nick Bjugstad, and Marcus Johansson.  None of them really panned out.  Bonino is better served as a bottom-six option, Bjugstad was only able to hold down a limited role, and Johansson wound up moving back to the wing and still managed only 14 points in 36 games.  All are set to hit the open market so there will be plenty of work to do again as those players move on.

Victor Rask had a bounce-back season but is still overpaid at $4MM and could be a buyout candidate but if he comes back, he can probably handle the fourth line.  Ryan Hartman spent some time down the middle but could be a stopgap option.  But neither of these will fill the vacancy in the top six.  Whether it’s another short-term fix or finding a way to move out salary to add a longer-term piece, at least one impact addition needs to be made at center.

Don’t Lose Dumba For Nothing

Another seemingly annual tradition as of late has been the trade speculation surrounding defenseman Mathew Dumba.  He hasn’t hidden his desire to stay with the Wild but with Suter, Jared Spurgeon, and Jonas Brodin all locked up long-term and holding no-move clauses, it continues to be Dumba that’s viewed as the potential odd man out.

That speculation will pick up in recent weeks due to expansion.  Those same no-move clauses lock in the three blueliners that Minnesota will protect from Seattle and they’re not in a spot where they can only protect four forwards to free up an extra spot for a defenseman.  That makes Dumba the one in jeopardy of being selected – he’d be the obvious pick if it came to that – and losing him for nothing to the Kraken is far from ideal.

Perhaps he can be dangled to add help down the middle.  Maybe it’s a side deal worked out with Seattle GM Ron Francis to pick someone else with Guerin sending an incentive to the Kraken to stay away from Dumba though that would need to be something of significance.  Either way, while Dumba may not be a luxury they can afford anymore, they certainly can’t afford to lose him for nothing.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Poll: Was The Joel Eriksson Ek Contract Fair?

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The Minnesota Wild locked up the first of their three big restricted free agents yesterday, signing center Joel Eriksson Ek to an eight-year, $42MM extension Friday afternoon. With a $5.25MM cap hit, it provides Minnesota with both long- and short-term cost certainty. As both Kirill Kaprizov and Kevin Fiala undergo contract negotiations of their own, the Eriksson Ek deal was a nice one to get out of the way.

Some were quick to defend the deal. After all, Eriksson Ek is just 24 years old and finished fourth in Selke Trophy voting on the back of his best offensive and defensive season yet. While he may not be classified as a bonafide first-line center, Eriksson Ek has already won the hearts of Wild fans with his responsible play.

However, some were quick to criticize the deal, calling it an overpayment and an overcommitment. And while $5.25MM does seem like a lot for a player who’s had a career-high of just 30 points, he was on pace for 44 in a full season this year and over 20 goals. Considering he remains one of the best defensive forwards in the league at such a young age, it’s not unexpected to see differing opinions of such a long-term contract.

So, we ask you, PHR readers, what do you think of the deal? Is it a smart investment by Wild general manager Bill Guerin? Is it too much term and money for a young player who hasn’t proven himself offensively? Or do you think that Eriksson Ek is worth more than the price tag given to him? Vote below, and feel free to comment.

[Mobile users, click here to vote!]

All contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

West Notes: Kaprizov, Fiala, Pettersson, Harvey

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There’s been a fair amount of news breaking in the Western Conference lately. Whether it’s Ryan Nugent-Hopkins’ and Joel Eriksson Ek’s eight-year extensions, the Viktor Arvidsson trade, or the Duncan Keith drama, this past week has given fans of Western teams more than enough to chew on. That hasn’t changed today, as there have been many tidbits of information floating around the hockey sphere. Following up on some extensive rumors from last month, NHL.com independent correspondent Jessi Pierce reports that the Minnesota Wild and Kirill Kaprizov are set to resume contract negotiations next week. Minnesota and general manager Bill Guerin come into this set of negotiations with a much better idea of their salary cap situation after devoting $5.25MM per season to Eriksson Ek on Friday. With some more cost certainty in hand, Guerin can come forward with some more solid offers to Kaprizov and his agent to give him a more realistic idea of their options. Guerin, who is “confident [they’ll] get a deal done at some point,” now has just $16.8MM in space to offer to Kaprizov, Kevin Fiala, and any other free agents he’ll sign to fill out the roster.

  • As a subset to that story, The Athletic’s Michael Russo is additionally reporting that contract talks with Fiala’s agent have now initiated. Guerin now finds himself in a unique position of negotiating the contracts of arguably his two best forwards simultaneously. With limited room to work with, it’s likely that one of Kaprizov or Fiala will have to take a bridge deal with a lower cap hit in order to give Guerin flexibility to add in free agency. Considering some previous Kaprizov rumors, it’s likely that the Russian forward will likely end up with that bridge deal. Guerin and Fiala’s camp are in a position to sign a contract similar to Eriksson Ek’s, exchanging some money up front in exchange for term and certainty for both sides.
  • Another young forward, Vancouver Canucks center Elias Pettersson, is also a pending restricted free agent in need of a new deal. Pettersson’s situation is slightly different, however, having played in just 26 games this past season due to injury. After reports from last month that the Canucks may want to sign Pettersson to a shorter-term deal, The Province’s Ben Kuzma reports today that Pettersson’s camp could opt for a short-term deal as well. Drawing on Brock Boeser’s three-year, $17.625MM ($5.875MM cap hit) contract signed prior to 2019-20 as a comparable, a short-term deal could open the door for general manager Jim Benning to offer a much longer-term deal to another RFA in defender Quinn Hughes.
  • The Canucks find themselves on here twice today after The Province’s Patrick Johnston reported that they’ve promoted Todd Harvey to be the team’s director of amateur scouting. Former director Judd Brackett departed the team prior to 2020-21 to accept the same role with the Wild, meaning that the Canucks have left the position vacant from then until now. Harvey, who’s served as an amateur scout for the team since the 2017-18 season, had effectively taken on Brackett’s role since his departure anyways. Harvey’s last NHL season was with the Stanley Cup Finalist 2005-06 Edmonton Oilers, and after a few seasons playing senior hockey, stepped away from the game until returning as an assistant coach for the OHL’s Guelph Storm in 2013. Harvey will be tasked with adding to a prospect pool that’s largely been drained in recent years with the graduation of players like Pettersson and Thatcher Demko.

All contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Minnesota Wild Sign Joel Eriksson Ek To Eight-Year Extension

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The Minnesota Wild have plenty of work to do this offseason when it comes to restricted free agents, but the team has scratched one name off the list. The team announced that they’ve signed Joel Eriksson Ek to an eight-year contract extension with an average annual value of $5.25MM ($42MM total).  PuckPedia reports that the deal contains a no-move clause with a ten-team no-trade clause in the final five years of the contract and breaks down as follows:

2021-22: $3MM salary
2022-23: $3MM salary
2023-24: $6MM salary
2024-25: $9MM salary
2025-26: $7.5MM salary
2026-27: $6MM salary
2027-28: $4.5MM salary
2028-29: $3MM salary

Eriksson Ek, 24, really took his game to a new level this season, scoring 19 goals and 30 points in 56 games. That offensive production, while still valuable, doesn’t compare to the defensive play that the young center brings to the table. Eriksson Ek finished fourth in Selke Trophy voting this season and played an important role on both special teams.

Interestingly, over the last few weeks, it had looked like the Wild would wait on extensions for Eriksson Ek and fellow restricted free agent Kevin Fiala until they knew what kind of number Kirill Kaprizov was going to come in at. But with no clarity coming on Kaprizov’s situation. they decided to move forward with their young center anyway.

This extension buys out six years of unrestricted free agency for Eriksson Ek, but with such pedestrian numbers in his previous three seasons, it still comes in at a reasonable cap hit for a top-six center. Before this year, he had never scored more than eight goals in a single season and had just 66 points in his first 210 NHL games. Those numbers would have also come into play had Eriksson Ek gone to arbitration, even though this recent breakout would carry more weight but instead, it won’t get to that point with this long-term deal.

Michael Russo of The Athletic was the first to report that a long-term extension was close.

Kirill Kaprizov Wins Calder Trophy

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The NHL Awards Show began with recognizing arguably the most exciting player in the league this season. Minnesota Wild forward Kirill Kaprizov has won the Calder Trophy as the league’s rookie of the year. Kaprizov, 24, recorded 27 goals and 51 points in 55 games in just his first season in North America. He received 99 of a possible 100 first-place votes for the award.

Minnesota’s long wait for Kaprizov to make the jump from the KHL to the NHL paid off, as his talent translated perfectly to the North American game. Kaprizov’s dynamic skating and offensive instincts helped to completely re-invent the Wild’s style of play and ultimately led them to the postseason. Kaprizov finished first in goals and points for Minnesota this season while leading all forwards in time on ice. For his efforts, not only did Kaprizov take home the Calder, but he also was named to the All-Rookie Team, finished fourth among left wings in All-Star Team voting, and even received enough MVP votes to tie for fifteenth in Hart Trophy voting.

Behind Kaprizov, Dallas’ Jason Robertson received the vast majority of second-place votes and Carolina’s Alex Nedeljkovic received the vast majority of third-place votes. Other candidates included Ottawa’s Joshua Norris and the Rangers’ Igor Shesterkin.

Minnesota Will Allow Mats Zuccarello To Play In Olympic Qualifiers

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Wild winger Mats Zuccarello has been granted permission from the team to suit up for Norway at the Olympic qualifying tournament this summer, the veteran confirmed to VG’s Oystein Jarlsbo and Helge Mikalsen.  It will be his first time suiting up for the national team since 2017.

The 33-year-old is coming off of one of his better seasons statistically, in terms of per-game numbers as he put up 11 goals and 24 assists in 42 games; his 0.83 points per game average tied the highest of his career.  Not surprisingly, he’ll immediately become Norway’s top offensive threat in the tournament.  This will be his second time playing in the Olympic qualifiers with his first attempt coming four years ago where he led the Norwegians in scoring with five points in three games.

There are three sets of Olympic qualifying tournaments being held this summer with the winner from each earning the final three spots.  Norway will host a group with South Korea, Slovenia, and Denmark.  Slovakia will host the group with Austria, Belarus, and Poland, while Latvia hosts France, Italy, and Hungary.  There are a handful of NHL players from those countries and those teams will need to decide soon whether or not they will be allowing them to participate like Minnesota has done with Zuccarello.

Expansion Primer: Minnesota Wild

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Over the next few weeks, we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.

In 2017, the Minnesota Wild protected three defensemen in the Expansion Draft: Jonas Brodin, Jared Spurgeon, and Ryan Suter. This left young standout defenseman Matt Dumba exposed (along with a number of other significant players). Yet, Dumba did not go to the Vegas Golden Knights. Why? Because Minnesota paid the price to keep him safe. Alongside selection Erik Haula, Minnesota also sent impressive young forward Alex Tuch to Vegas. The side deal kept their other players protected, but the Wild have watched as Tuch has blossomed into the power forward they foresaw when selecting him in the first round in 2014. It was a heavy price to pay.

This time around, Brodin, Spurgeon, and Suter will again need to be protected. They are each still top-four defensemen for Minnesota and now they all hold a No-Movement Clause as well, meaning that unless they waive that clause they are required to be protected. Again, this could potentially leave Dumba exposed, a scenario that has put the Wild back in the expansion spotlight more than any other team, seemingly since Seattle was introduced as the future 32nd NHL team. In reality, the Wild cannot and will not give the dynamic defender away for free, so they must find out how to protect Dumba within the confines of their current protection possibilities or else he will be traded.

The goal for the team this year is to find a way within the constructs of the expansion draft rules to mitigate the impact of their expansion loss, rather than forfeit another top prospect or pick in a side deal. With the Dumba situation driving their decisions, a deep forward corps to consider, and a tough question in net, GM Bill Guerin has his work cut out for him. However, the help of one or two veterans could be huge for the Wild in managing to escape this round of expansion without getting too badly hurt.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:
Zach Parise (NMC), Mats Zuccarello (NMC), Will Bitten, Joel Eriksson Ek, Kevin Fiala, Marcus Foligno, Jordan Greenway, Ryan Hartman, Victor Rask, Dmitry Sokolov, Mason Shaw, Nico Sturm

Defense:
Jonas Brodin (NMC), Jared Spurgeon (NMC), Ryan Suter (NMC), Matt Dumba, Brennan Menell, Carson Soucy

Goalies:
Kaapo Kahkonen, Cam Talbot

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

F Nick Bjugstad, F Nick Bonino, D Ian Cole, F Marcus Johansson

Notable Exemptions

D Calen Addison, F Adam Beckman, F Matthew Boldy, F Mitchell Chaffee, F Kirill Kaprizov, D Ryan O’Rourke, F Marco Rossi

Key Decisions

The first and most important question for the Wild is “can anything be done to change the status quo?” If unchanged, Minnesota faces a very difficult task of escaping expansion unharmed. However, if Guerin can convince any of his players with No-Movement Clauses to waive or can trade one of his otherwise-exposed players for picks and exempt prospects, that would change the calculus of the situation.

If you assume that the team must move ahead as constituted, it locks the Wild into an eight-skater scheme. As noted, Dumba is not going to Seattle for free so if he is not traded or another defenseman does not waive his NMC, then Dumba will be protected as the team’s fourth defender. This makes for a very difficult decision at forward. With just two spots available next to Parise and Zuccarello, Minnesota must pick two of three 24-year-old forwards who all finished in the top five in team scoring this season: Fiala, Greenway, and Eriksson Ek. Fiala, 24, is the most proven young scorer on the team, recording three 20-goal seasons and essentially four 40-point seasons in just five NHL seasons. His RFA status and his slow start in the postseason are unlikely to make a difference; Fiala will be protected. There would really be just one spot open at forward.

As for Eriksson Ek versus Greenway, the decision is much tighter. Eriksson Ek is the team’s top center and a great two-way, physical player who made great strides this season. Greenway has been the better, more consistent scorer so far in his young career and has made steady improvement each year. He too is a strong two-way player with elite power forward upside. It is impossible to know which player the team might prefer, but this much is certain: Seattle will not hesitate to scoop up whichever of the pair they must expose.

Assume now that a trade or NMC waiver allows Minnesota to employ a 7-3 protection scheme. In this scenario, decisions remain at forward but carry far less weight. Fiala, Eriksson Ek, and Greenway are all safe alongside Parise and Zuccarello. This leaves two spots left and number of candidates. Following the best per-game scoring season of his career, not to mention his contributions to the checking game and penalty kill, Foligno would likely be a lock. The remaining spot could go to Hartman, who increased his value with his transition to center this season, an area where the Wild lack depth. Hartman already earned an affordable, multi-year extension, as both sides seem happy with the fit. Rask outscored Hartman by one point this season and is a natural center, but his contract value and upcoming expiration both hurt his case. Sturm is developing into a good bottom-six forward, but the collegiate product is the same age as Hartman with a fraction of the pro experience.

Regardless of the protection scheme, there are two constants for the Wild: Soucy will be exposed and only one goalie can be protected. Neither is an easy pill to swallow. Minnesota paid up to keep Soucy when he almost left as a Group 6 free agent and the 26-year-old proved them right by continuing to improve this season. However, with a solid top four that they already have enough problems balancing in expansion, it is hard to imagine a way in which Soucy is protected. It is actually more likely that he could be traded before the draft. In goal, the team must choose between experience and stability or youth and upside. Talbot was brought in as a free agent this season to start for the Wild and he performed very well, especially in the playoffs where he started every game. However, it ended up being much more of a timeshare in the regular season, as young Kahkonen pushed for starts. The 2019-20 AHL Goaltender of the Year had some issues in his first NHL season, but has the makings of a future starter. After such a strong season, would the team mortgage the future in order to keep Talbot in place as their reliable starter? Or is Kahkonen’s potential too hard to ignore?

Projected Protection List

F Joel Eriksson Ek
F Kevin Fiala
F Marcus Foligno
F Jordan Greenway
F Ryan Hartman
F Nico Sturm
F Mats Zuccarello (NMC)

D Jonas Brodin (NMC)
D Matt Dumba 
D Jared Spurgeon (NMC)

G Kaapo Kahkonen

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined.  Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined.  In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.

Forwards (2): Zach Parise, Victor Rask

Defensemen (2): Carson Soucy, Ryan Suter

Taking some creative liberties here, the projected protections and exposures are based on the idea that Parise and Suter will take one for the team and waive their No-Movement Clauses for the Expansion Draft. The 36-year-olds (Parise will be 37 next month) are in decline, are paid $7.5MM+, and are under contract through the 2024-25 season, during which they will be 40 years old. There is no chance that the Kraken select Parise and little to no chance they take Suter. Starting a franchise with expensive players in their late thirties is not a feasible plan and Seattle GM Ron Francis is not one to take foolish chances. There is no risk to the team nor the players for Parise and Suter to waive their NMC’s. They’ll do it for the same reason they signed long-term deals with the Wild in the first place: to give their hometown team its best chance to win a Stanley Cup. After a season in which the club reinvented itself into a legitimate contender, the team is closer than ever to that goal and Parise and Suter are unlikely to stand in the way and cost the themselves a valuable teammate.

If this does indeed occur – and reason (plus some rumors) suggest that it will – the Wild are in much better shape with the Expansion Draft than previously thought. Minnesota could still go with an eight-skater scheme to protect Soucy rather than the likes of Foligno, Hartman, and Sturm, but it seems highly unlikely. The big defenseman has upside, but will never be more than a bottom-pair player in Minnesota. He will be an attractive option for Seattle, though. So too will veteran goaltender Talbot. A sturdy netminder who played well in his first season in Minnesota, Talbot would be a tough loss for the Wild but there are potential replacements on the free agent market. It would be far more difficult to replace the youth and upside of Kahkonen. For the Kraken, Talbot could both challenge for a starting role or could be flipped to another team with needs in net. Up front, the 7-3 scheme leaves little to offer Seattle. Rask’s cap hit is not worth his production, plus he’s on an expiring deal. If the Kraken are not enamored with Soucy or Talbot, young prospects Shaw or Bitten could be appealing, but would have to be considered worthy of a roster spot or else would be risked on waivers. They could also opt to negotiate with an impending free agent, with several notable names to choose from. However, Minnesota’s expansion exposure is not quite the guaranteed win for Seattle that it initially seemed.

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