2019 NHL Draft Lottery Odds
The regular season has ended, but for those 15 teams who missed the playoffs the wait won’t be long for the first exciting event of the off-season. The 2019 NHL Entry Draft may be more than ten weeks away, but the league has moved this year’s NHL Draft Lottery up several weeks to this coming Tuesday, April 9th, before the postseason even begins. With the final league standings in place after yesterday’s results and the teams with ping pong balls to be selected now set, here are the odds for the No. 1 overall pick in this years draft:
31st – Colorado Avalanche (from Ottawa Senators): 18.5%
30th – Los Angeles Kings: 13.5%
29th – New Jersey Devils: 11.5%
28th – Detroit Red Wings: 9.5%
27th – Buffalo Sabres: 8.5%
26th – New York Rangers: 7.5%
25th – Edmonton Oilers: 6.5%
24th – Anaheim Ducks: 6.0%
23rd – Vancouver Canucks: 5.0%
22nd – Philadelphia Flyers: 3.5%
21st – Minnesota Wild: 3.0%
20th – Chicago Blackhawks: 2.5%
19th – Florida Panthers: 2.0%
18th – Arizona Coyotes: 1.5%
17th* – Montreal Canadiens: 1.0%
It’s important to note that while the odds at winning the first overall pick are listed, there are lottery selections for each of the first three picks in the draft with each team’s odds increasing proportionally after each selection starting with first overall. The prize this year for Tuesday night’s lucky winner is expected to be U.S. National Team Development Program center Jack Hughes, an elite play-making pivot who has been wowing scouts for years. The consolation prize of picking second is not too shabby either; Finnish scoring winger Kaapo Kakko has closed the gap on Hughes and is also considered an elite talent. The No. 3 pick is finally where there will be some intrigue in June. Many feel Russian winger Vasili Podkolzin will be the pick, but a team may opt for a different style of forward like Canadians Dylan Cozens and Kirby Dach or Hughes’ teammate Alex Turcotte, while a D-needy club could reach for promising defender Bowen Byram.
The NHL Draft Lottery will be nationally televised by NBC Sports, Sportsnet, and TVA beginning at 8pm ET on Tuesday. As opposed to last year, when the lottery took place over two separate sessions during playoff game intermissions, the event will return to being an independent hour-long show. Tune in to see who the big winner could be this year and how the top of the first round will look in this year’s draft.
No Discussions Yet About Replacing Bruce Boudreau
Although the Wild will miss the playoffs this season, GM Paul Fenton and owner Craig Leipold have not discussed a coaching chance, reports Sarah McLellan of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune. That suggests that Bruce Boudreau will be back behind the bench next season. He has one year remaining on his contract after this season so it will be interesting to see if the two sides work out an extension or if Fenton opts to wait and preserve some flexibility to make an in-season change if they get off to a slow start in 2019-20. Boudreau has the third-highest points percentage amongst active NHL coaches at .641.
Poll: Toughest First-Round Opponent For Tampa Bay Lightning?
It’s been months since any team in the East other than the Tampa Bay Lightning was considered to have any real chance at the top seed in the conference. The Lightning have been one of the most dominant regular season teams in recent memory, locking up the President’s Trophy more than two weeks ago and joining the 60-win club earlier this week.
What has also been clear for some time is that Tampa would be destined to face the Boston Bruins or Toronto Maple Leafs in the second round of the playoffs, as their two divisional rivals have been near the top of the league standings for much of the year and always on a collision course to play each other in round one due to the NHL’s current playoff format. Yet, it’s easy to forget that the Lightning too have to win in the first round. Many have taken it as a foregone conclusion that Tampa would advance, but upsets occur in sports and the Lighting are as susceptible to a collapse as any heavy favorites that have fallen in the past.
So who has the best chance to knock off the regular season champs? Well, the defending Stanley Cup winners would have been an ideal match-up, but the Washington Capitals pulled out of range of a wild card finish earlier this week and clinched the top seed in the Metropolitan Division with a win on Thursday. The New York Islanders, with their suffocating defensive style and stellar goaltending, also would have been an intriguing opponent, but they have also assured themselves of a non-wildcard spot. Finally, the star-studded Pittsburgh Penguins would have made for a difficult and highly entertaining series with the Bolts, but a win on Thursday night guaranteed that they cannot finish any lower than seventh in the conference.
That leaves three potential opponents for Tampa Bay in round one: the Carolina Hurricanes, the Columbus Blue Jackets, and the Montreal Canadiens. Two of these three teams will make the playoffs – Carolina has clinched a playoff berth with a Thursday night victory – but only one will be lucky enough to land the second wild card spot and go up against the Lightning. Of these three, which one could pull off the eight seed upset?
The Hurricanes are on pace to finish seventh in the East and avoid Tampa and they cannot be caught by the Canadiens. However, if the the Blue Jackets pass by Carolina, the team would have to celebrate their first postseason in ten years by playing the Bolts. The ‘Canes could give the Lightning problems with their ability to suppress shots, as they are the only team in the conference that allows less than 29 shots per game on average. A defense corps that is among the deepest and most talented in the league makes offense a struggle for the opposition and the added bonus of consistent play in net explains why Carolina is eighth-best in the league in goals against per game. Despite the franchise’s lack of postseason experience of late, Justin Williams and Jordan Staal are also major assets when it comes to playing smart, tough playoff hockey. The main concern for the Hurricanes though is that they have not been as successful offensively as they have been defensively. Despite leading the league in shots per game, the team is 16th in goals for per game and 20th on the power play and they’ve lacked game-breaking scoring talent this season outside of Sebastian Aho and Teuvo Teravainen. It’s impossible to expect to shutout Tampa Bay, so if Carolina can’t find some secondary scoring they could struggle against the Bolts.
As of now, Columbus looks like the favorite to finish eighth and play Tampa. That might not be what GM Jarmo Kekalainen expected when he added Matt Duchene, Ryan Dzingel, and Adam McQuaid at the trade deadline, but those moves will certainly help anyway. The Blue Jackets franchise has never won a playoff series and doing so against this Lightning team would be a tall task. However, they have both considerable talent and a chip on their shoulder. Like Carolina, Columbus does not allow many shots nor many goals and additionally have the best penalty kill in the conference. Unlike Carolina, they also have a star goalie in Sergei Bobrovsky. The Jackets would need Bobrovksy to shake off past struggles in the postseason, but if he does the Vezina Trophy-winner could be a game-changer. Offensively, Columbus has had an up-and-down year but are currently 12th in goals for per game. Duchene and Dzingel are major additions to a forward unit that already included elite talent like Artemi Panarin and Cam Atkinson. Unfortunately, all of this ability up front has still not led to consistent offense nor has it cured a miserable power play. Failure to capitalize on opportunities could be the Achilles heel of this team.
Then there’s Montreal, who need some help to make the playoffs, but could make waves if they do. The Canadiens can only end up in the eighth seed, so it’s Tampa or bust. Montreal can never quite be counted out with Carey Price in net and Shea Weber on the blue line, but the question is whether the other pieces are there to pull off not one but four wins against the Bolts. To their credit, the Habs have been a very balanced, consistent team this season that is right in the middle of the pack when it comes to goals and shots for as well as goals and shots against. Their power play is dead last in the NHL, which is obviously not typical of a playoff team, but it’s hard to find many other holes in their game. The problem is that nothing jumps out as being good enough for a massive upset, either. If Max Domi and Tomas Tatar stay hot and Price stands on his head as usual, anything is possible, but the Canadiens have simply been a good team and anyone who beats the Lightning will need to be great. Can they step up?
What do you think? The standings might say Columbus is the most likely opponent for Tampa Bay at this point, but who would be the toughest match-up for the President’s Trophy winners?
AHL Notes: Penguins, Kurashev, Kings, Rangers, Motte
The Pittsburgh Penguins have tapped the pipeline from Northeastern University yet again, as the organization as brought in the Huskies’ top-scoring forward from this season on an AHL contract. The Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins have announced that Brandon Hawkins has signed a contract for the 2019-20 season and the slick right winger will join the team on an amateur tryout for the rest of this season. Hawkins, 24, took an interesting path through his collegiate career, but it all worked out. Hawkins played two seasons at Bowling Green State University before opting to transfer to Northeastern, but was forced to sit a year due to NCAA transfer rules before playing two more years. Yet, in his fifth and final college season, Hawkins put together 21 assists and 33 points to lead all Huskies forwards. Hawkins will be an asset at the minor league level for the Penguins and could push for an NHL deal with a strong season. The intriguing forward is yet another Northeastern standout to turn pro lately; star goaltender Cayden Primeau (MTL) and dynamic defenseman Jeremy Davies (NJ) both signed entry-level contracts, while Liam Pecararo has joined the AHL’s Springfield Thunderbirds on an ATO. The Huskies are holding out hope that Tyler Madden (VAN) doesn’t unexpectedly join the pro ranks as well.
The WBS Penguins also added Jan Drozg to their roster on a tryout basis to close out the year. Drozg, 20, is a 2017 fifth-round pick of Pittsburgh’s who signed his entry-level contract last month. After another dominating offensive season for the QMJHL’s Shawinigan Cataractes – 62 points in 60 games and another six points in six playoff games – Drozg is eyeing the pro level. This brief stint in Wilkes-Barre/Scranton is just a precursor to what should be a full-time role next season, potentially with a chance to see some games in Pittsburgh if things go well.
- Another promising prospect joining his drafted organization on an ATO is Chicago Blackhawks’ breakout star Philipp Kurashev. Kurashev was a fourth-round pick out of the QMJHL just last year, but has drastically improved his stock this season with 65 points in 59 games for the Quebec Remparts, as well as another five points in the team’s first round playoff series, on top of a point-per-game performance for Team Switzerland at the World Juniors. The 19-year-old will look to make it a trifecta of strong showings in his time with the AHL’s Rockford Ice Hogs. Kurashev is a long shot to make the Blackhawks out of camp next year, but it never hurts to get a look at a prospect against pro competition.
- Two other teams adding interesting prospects to their affiliates’ rosters are the Los Angeles Kings and New York Rangers. The Kings have brought in two 2018 draft picks on ATO’s in fourth-round forward Aidan Dudas and sixth-round goaltender Jacob Ingham. The pair of OHLers each made strides this season and L.A. can now see how they do with the Ontario Reign when the competition is raised. The Rangers have also added a junior player, but alongside two college free agents. Jake Elmer, an undrafted forward who enjoyed a breakout season with the WHL’s Lethbridge Hurricanes, signed an ELC with New York in March and will get his first taste of the AHL down the stretch before turning pro full-time in the fall. Joining him for now and hoping to land AHL contracts are Harvard University captain Lewis Zerter-Gossage and American International College captain Shawn McBride. The pair of experienced locker room leaders will look to make a good impression on the Hartford Wolf Pack.
- While some junior and college players are just now embarking on their first pro experience, some in the AHL are already looking ahead to their next pro gig. Iowa Wild goalie C.J. Motte, who played largely in the ECHL this season but performed well in a handful of AHL games, has reportedly already signed his next contract and it isn’t with Iowa. Instead, Motte is heading to Austria to join the EBEL’s HC Innsbruck, the team announced. With the NHL off-season coming significantly later than many of the European markets, this kind of overlap isn’t uncommon. However, it is strange for Motte to still be playing with one team having already committed to another as soon as the season ends.
Jimmy Schuldt Narrowing List Of Potential Destinations
Tuesday: Along with the Wild and Golden Knights are the St. Louis Blues and New York Islanders according to Russo’s new article on The Athletic (subscription required). Colleague Marc Antoine Godin tweets that Montreal is not among the finalists, despite Poehling’s attempts to convince Schuldt to join the Canadiens.
Monday: One of the biggest college free agents decided to head to the Minnesota Wild today when Nico Sturm signed his entry-level deal, and he may not be the only top name headed to the Wild. Jimmy Schuldt has narrowed his list of teams from more than twenty to just five according to Bob McKenzie of TSN, who lists Minnesota and the Vegas Golden Knights as part of that final group. Michael Russo of The Athletic has heard the same, and expected the list to be reduced even further at some point today.
Schuldt, 23, finished his four year career at St. Cloud State recently with another outstanding season and is a Hobey Baker finalist. The undrafted free agent defenseman recorded 35 points in 39 games while serving as captain for the third consecutive season. He has previously had ties with various NHL clubs including attending development camp with the Montreal Canadiens, who recently signed teammate Ryan Poehling.
There is obviously a strong connection between Schuldt and the Wild, but almost every team in the league has expressed interest in him at some point. He’ll almost certainly be able to leverage that widespread interest into a contract that starts this season, burning his entry-level deal right away and allowing him to become a restricted free agent this summer.
Nico Sturm Signs With Minnesota Wild
The Minnesota Wild have inked a top college free agent, signing Nico Sturm to a one-year entry-level contract. The deal will kick in this season meaning Sturm is scheduled for restricted free agency this summer, but the Wild will happily welcome him into the organization. Sturm recently finished his junior season at Clarkson, where he served as captain.
Sturm, 23, was one of the most sought after names in college free agency this season after a particular effective campaign. With 45 points in 39 games he was named a Hobey Baker finalist and took home several conference honors including Best Defensive Forward. The two-way center brings size and an impeccable work ethic that should help him transition quickly to the professional ranks. In fact, Sturm may get into a game this season for the Wild despite his inexperience.
It’s important to note that if Sturm does play in a game he would no longer be exempt from the expansion draft in 2021. While that is obviously a concern for the Wild, the chance to jump right into NHL action very well could have been the deciding factor in his negotiation. Even if he does need protection a few years from now, Minnesota has added a legitimate NHL prospect for nothing more than a contract slot.
Minnesota has dramatically revamped their forward position this season by trading away core pieces like Nino Niederreiter, Charlie Coyle and Mikael Granlund, and will now add another young name to the group for next season. Sturm should compete with players like Joel Eriksson Ek and Victor Rask for playing time down the middle, though there is certainly no guarantee he’ll be able to bring the same level of offense.
Minor Transactions: 04/01/19
Welcome to April and the end of the NHL regular season. There are just a handful of games remaining before the 2018-19 playoffs begin and teams have started locking up their first round opponents. Still, for teams battling on the edge of postseason contention the next week may be just as important as any other. Today eyes will be drawn to the Colorado Avalanche and St. Louis Blues’ game, which very well could decide the final wild card spot in the Western Conference. The Avalanche currently hold the spot with a one-point lead over Arizona, but have this game in hand on them. As teams prepare for action, we’ll keep track of all the minor moves.
- The Carolina Hurricanes are just one point ahead of the Montreal Canadiens in the East and have recalled Haydn Fleury under emergency conditions to help them stay there. The team was defeated last night and need to get back on track tomorrow night when they travel to Toronto, but will be without Calvin de Haan who is heading back to Carolina after suffering an upper-body injury.
- With Louis Domingue banged up the Tampa Bay Lightning have recalled Eddie Pasquale from the minor leagues. The team obviously wants their backup goaltender healthy, but all eyes are on Victor Hedman as he deals with an upper-body injury. Pasquale has played in one game for the Lightning this year but has a solid .916 save percentage through 43 appearances for the Syracuse Crunch.
- The Calgary Flames are set to rest several regulars after clinching a playoff spot, and Juuso Valimaki has been recalled to take their place. Mikael Backlund, Matthew Tkachuk, Mark Giordano, T.J. Brodie, Travis Hamonic and Noah Hanifin will all be out of the lineup.
- The Detroit Red Wings have recalled Joe Hicketts from the minor league under emergency conditions, and CapFriendly believes they have moved Mike Green to long-term injured reserve in order to fit him in. Hicketts’ recall follows an injury to Danny DeKeyser, who looks like he may miss the last few games of the season.
- The Nashville Predators have recalled forward Miikka Salomaki from the minor leagues, bringing him back from a conditioning stint. Salomaki hasn’t played an NHL game since early January but could be an option for the team down the stretch and into the playoffs.
- With Nico Sturm set to join the Minnesota Wild immediately, Matt Read has been sent back down to the AHL. The team is expected to put Sturm into the lineup as soon as possible, though since he hasn’t yet practiced with the team it is not clear when exactly that will be. Read meanwhile will be on call for the next opportunity as he has been all season.
- The Anaheim Ducks have returned Sam Carrick back to San Diego of the AHL. He had been recalled on Saturday and suited up that night, logging just over 12 minutes against Edmonton while picking up an assist.
Wild Notes: Parise, Sturm, Schuldt
As we speak, the Minnesota Wild are playing what amounts to a must-win game against the Arizona Coyotes. Neither team is in a playoff position as of now, but it still represents a potential four-point shift in the Western Conference wild card race. The Coyotes currently sit in ninth place, three points back of the Colorado Avalanche for the final postseason berth. The Wild are in tenth place, just one point behind the ‘Yotes. A Minnesota regulation win would see them leapfrog Arizona to pull within two points of Colorado, but an Arizona regulation win would put Minnesota three points back of the nine seed and still four points back of the eight seed, which might be insurmountable with only three games remaining after today.
Hurting the chances of a much-needed Wild win today is the continued absence of star forward Zach Parise. Unfortunately, he may not be returning at all this season. Just prior to puck drop, beat writer Sarah McLellan reported that Parise would not be active for the game, which was not a great surprise, but added that head coach Bruce Boudreau has qualified Parise’s lower-body ailment as “significant”. While she writes that the team “hopes” he might play again this season, it seems far from certain. Parise has now missed four games in a row and with three games left his chances to return are running out. A loss today would substantially lower the odds of Parise being rushed back to action as well. The 34-year-old has enjoyed a resurgence this season, leading the team with 26 goals and 59 points, but this is a disappointing end to an otherwise encouraging season for the veteran.
- The Athletic’s Michael Russo believes that the Wild are “pushing hard” for college free agent forward Nico Sturm. The Clarkson University captain is considered the top defensive forward in the NCAA and has improved offensively in each of his four collegiate seasons as well. The concern with Sturm is that the 23-year-old may have already peaked in his development and could project as nothing more than a fourth-liner at the NHL level. However, with good size and a mature game, Sturm does have the added benefit of being able to contribute right away, even if not on the score sheet. In fact, Russo writes that if Sturm lands in Minnesota, he is likely to join the Wild right away and burn a year off his entry-level contract.
- There has been plenty of speculation as to where St. Cloud State University defenseman Jimmy Schuldt might end up and the rumor mill has only heated up since the Huskies were unceremoniously upset for the second straight year in their first game of the NCAA Tournament. At one point, it seemed like a foregone conclusion that Schuldt would follow teammate Ryan Poehling to the Montreal Canadiens, but those whispers have subsided and many other contenders have entered the fray. Count the Wild as one such interested club. The Athletic’s Jake Jensen writes that Minnesota is at least “in the race” for Schuldt, alongside the L.A. Kings and Vegas Golden Knights. Potentially the best undrafted defender in college hockey this season, Schuldt will be a nice prize for whichever team he decides to join.
Central Notes: DeBrincat, Strome, Hamhuis, Bishop, Schuldt
With the signing earlier today of former Chicago Blackhawks forward Nick Schmaltz to a seven-year, $40.95MM contract extension, The Athletic’s Scott Powers (subscription required) wonders what kind of extensions might forwards Alex DeBrincat and Dylan Strome earn, as both will be eligible to sign new deals on July 1.
DeBrincat, who is in the second year of his three-year, entry-level contract, has already tallied 68 goals in two years, including a 40-goal campaign this season. With those numbers, Powers writes that the Blackhawks are most likely going to get DeBrincat to eventually sign a six-year deal, likely heading into the $8MM AAV-range, pointing out that a seven or eight-year deal is unlikely since a six-year deal will leave him looking for a third contract at age 27, the perfect age for a long-term extension. If he can continue posting 30-to-40 goal seasons, DeBrincat could be in line for double digit cap hits in the future.
As for Strome, the team may be better off waiting for another year to lock up the young forward. Strome has played well in Chicago with 14 goals and 45 points in 53 games, but both sides would be better off to wait another year for more proof that he deserves a big contract extension. Plus, it would be wise if Chicago doesn’t have two big contracts handed out in the same year, which could get expensive, possibly between $13-15MM combined.
- The Athletic’s Adam Vingan reports that the Nashville Predators have activated defenseman Dan Hamhuis from injured reserve. The veteran blue liner has been out with a leg injury since February 23rd, but it finally ready to return. The team’s third-pair defender has played 53 games this season for the Predators and will now partner up with rookie Dante Fabbro, who is expected to make his debut Saturday against Columbus. The Predators also announced they have assigned Troy Grosenick to the Milwaukee Admirals of the AHL.
- SportsDay’s Matthew DeFranks reports that the Dallas Stars will be without goaltender Ben Bishop on Saturday and likely longer, as he is considered to be day-to-day. The 32-year-old Bishop has been a key reason why Dallas has been playing so well as they fight to hold onto their wildcard spot. Bishop has a 2.03 GAA and a .933 save percentage so far this year and may even be a Vezina Trophy finalist at this rate. NHL.com’s Mike Heika writes that he suffered a lower-body injury while going down into the butterfly in the Stars’ last game. DeFranks also adds that Mats Zuccarello and Justin Dowling are about three days away from returning to the lineup.
- The Athletic’s Michael Russo (subscription required) writes that the Minnesota Wild are expected to be one of the most active teams in trying to sign St. Cloud State defenseman Jimmy Schuldt in the next few days. Schuldt finished his four-year college career Friday night, posting 38 career goals. Russo reports that the Wild hope to sign the four-year blue liner by burning the first year of his deal this season and allowing him to play in the NHL for the team’s final few games.
Matt Read Placed On Waivers
Friday: Read has cleared waivers and can now be assigned to the AHL. 2
Thursday: According to Michael Russo of The Athletic, the Minnesota Wild have placed Matt Read on waivers, as he had finally worn out his exempt status by playing in ten games. Read cleared waivers before the season began and had been used as an insurance policy for the Wild, bouncing up and down between the AHL and NHL all season. Zach Parise is back at practice today for the Wild, meaning Read could be on his way back to the AHL should he clear waivers tomorrow.
It seems unlikely that anyone would claim Read at this point, given that he becomes an unrestricted free agent at the end of the year. The 32-year old forward was once a pretty effective member of the Philadelphia Flyers offensive attack, but will likely be limited to spot duty and minor league action for the rest of his playing career. In the AHL this season he has 34 points in 55 games, but that has only translated to a single goal during his ten games for Minnesota.
Read is AHL playoff eligible though, and with the Wild heading to the Calder Cup playoffs in a few weeks his presence will be greatly appreciated. Since moving to Iowa for the 2013-14 season and re-branding as the Wild, the team has not made a single appearance in the AHL playoffs. That’s all set to change this season under head coach Tim Army, who has led the group to a 34-22-12 record through their first 68 games. Iowa has a seven point cushion in the Central Division, but could still potentially catch the Grand Rapids Griffins or Chicago Wolves for an even better seed.