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Free Agent Focus 2022

Free Agent Focus: Florida Panthers

at CDT | by 7 Comments

Free agency is now less than a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in mid-July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Next up is a look at the Panthers.

Key Restricted Free Agents:

F Eetu Luostarinen – Acquired in the trade that sent Vincent Trocheck to the Carolina Hurricanes, Luostarinen established himself as a quality option for the Panthers this year, scoring nine goals along with 17 assists over 78 games. This season was the 23-year-old’s third in the NHL, but only his first full season, playing 44 games in the COVID-shortened 2020-21 campaign, in addition to eight the year prior for Carolina. Now an RFA at the conclusion of his ELC, Luostarinen may not see much of a raise over his previous salary. However, with the Panthers in a difficult position relative to the salary cap, and his solid contributions last season, he may find himself in a somewhat elevated role with increased ice time and responsibility which could, if he can continue to build on his game, go a long way to his next contract.

Other RFAs: F Henry Bowlby, F Aleksi Heponiemi, F German Rubtsov, D Lucas Carlsson, G Evan Fitzpatrick, G Jonas Johansson

Key Unrestricted Free Agents:

F Claude Giroux – One of the most sought after players at the 2021 trade deadline, Giroux is now one of the most prized free agents in the 2021 class. The Philadelphia Flyers legend was dealt to the Panthers at the trade deadline where he immediately clicked with an already stellar Florida offense, producing 23 points in 18 regular season games and another eight in 10 playoff games. Giroux will have his pick of teams this summer, and should have the freedom to choose his destination based on his priority. At age 34, having just finished an eight-year, $66.2MM contract that carried an AAV of $8.275MM, Giroux won’t again see that amount of term, but a contract with a salary close to his previous may not be out of reach. The issue for Giroux, specifically in the flat cap era, will be balancing whether or not he wants to maximize the financial commitment on this contract or go to a particular situation, perhaps a team with a real chance to win a Stanley Cup. If he wants to stay with the Panthers, who figure to be one of those teams with a real chance to win the Cup, not only will Giroux have to take a pronounced discount, but the organization itself may need to conduct some roster-reconstruction to make it happen.

F Mason Marchment – Amongst the most interesting breakout players in the NHL this year was Mason Marchment, a longtime member of the Toronto Maple Leafs organization who was dealt to Florida in February of 2020 for Denis Malgin. A large, imposing, physical forward, Marchment was never a major offensive weapon until this season, where he put up 18 goals and 29 assists in just 54 games, all career-highs by a wide margin. At age 27, Marchment hits unrestricted free agency coming off not only his best NHL season to date, but arguably his best season since he debuted in the OHL in 2014-15 with the Erie Otters. Given his recent and somewhat unprecedented breakout, Marchment may have trouble finding a long-term, big-money contract on the free agent market, but his blend of physical play with offensive production should provide him with plenty of options. Though Florida will have to make some tough financial decisions, a reunion with Marchment at a lower price may make sense, giving the forward another season in the middle of a dynamic offense to show that his impressive 2021-22 was his standard, and not a fluke.

F Joe Thornton – The future Hall of Famer turns 43 on July 2nd and despite battling injuries this season has not ruled out another year in the NHL. Thornton has seemingly had several different NHL careers, most recently playing the role of a bottom-six veteran willing to do what’s asked of him. Still without a Stanley Cup, Thornton signed with the Panthers prior to the 2021-22 season in the hopes of winning his first Cup, but fell short when Florida lost in four games to the Tampa Bay Lightning in the second round. Despite decreased production the past few seasons, Thornton has played well in his role and could very well join a competitive team, including Florida, on a league minimum salary, bringing valuable intangibles to the team’s dressing room.

D Ben Chiarot – Similar to Giroux, Chiarot found himself as one of the most sought after targets at this year’s trade deadline as a reliable shutdown defenseman. Also like Giroux, Chiarot found himself traded to Florida at the deadline with a first-round draft pick going the other way. At the conclusion of the three-year, $10.5MM contract that brought him to Montreal, the 31-year-old Chiarot probably won’t find the same salary Giroux is about to on the open market, but his play for the Canadiens and Panthers, which includes 42 playoff games, should earn him at least a similar deal from a team looking for a solid and sturdy left-handed defenseman.

Other UFAs: F Noel Acciari, F Maxim Mamin, D Robert Hagg, D Petteri Lindbohm, D Markus Nutivaara, D Chase Priskie, G Christopher Gibson

Projected Cap Space:

According to CapFriendly, the Panthers enter this offseason with $3.074MM in projected salary cap space. The flat salary cap has put a number of NHL teams in a bind, meaning Florida is not alone and the limited space is understandable, however that does not make the number any easier to work with. This figure may be enough to bring back one or two of the players discussed, but won’t be enough to retain a marquee player like Giroux. Even aside from those players, Florida is likely faced with losing at least a couple of Acciari, Mamin, Hagg, Lindbohm, Nutivaara and Priskie, all of whom would have been expected to take on some of the responsibilities of those the team may already lose.

There are several options to create additional cap space, including a potential trade of Patric Hornqvist, who will be an UFA after 2022-23 and carries a cap hit of $5.3MM. Florida could also explore the trade market for former Vezina Trophy winner Sergei Bobrovsky, but it may require them to retain as much as half of Bobrovsky’s $10MM salary over each of the next four seasons, not to mention necessitating a replacement to back-up 21-year-old Spencer Knight, who has just 36 NHL games under his belt.

Free Agent Focus: Los Angeles Kings

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Free agency is now less than a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in mid-July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Next up is a look at the Kings.

Key Restricted Free Agents:

F Brendan Lemieux – After being traded three times in his career, first from the Buffalo Sabres to the Winnipeg Jets, then to the New York Rangers, and finally to the Kings, the known agitator seems to have finally settled in with Los Angeles in a role that fits him. Despite being out of playoff contention in 2020-21, the Kings made the move to acquire Lemieux from the Rangers ahead of the trade deadline, using him to protect their young players and get under the skin of their opponents. Not necessarily known for his scoring, Lemieux has just 60 points in 230 career games, 13 points and 50 games coming this past season, but does carry 410 career penalty minutes, 97 of which came in 2021-22. Coming off a two-year deal that carried a $1.55MM AAV, Lemieux’s next contract may not look much different, but with what he’s brought to the Kings, he presumably won’t have to worry much about getting another NHL deal.

F Adrian Kempe – Besides finding a way to help the organization take the next step in its accelerated rebuild, perhaps the biggest agenda item for Kings’ GM Rob Blake this offseason will be a new contract for the All Star forward. Kempe, who will turn 26 in September, had a sensational breakout season for Los Angeles, finding the back of the net 35 times, adding 19 assists for 54 points in 78 games. Before his breakout, Kempe was most likely going to see a raise over the $2MM AAV he carried the past three seasons, given his average of 31 points per 82 games over the life of that contract. However, by eclipsing that average point total just in goals scored this season, being relatively close to UFA status, and his arbitration eligibility, Kempe could see a major bump in salary this offseason, especially if the Kings are looking at a long-term agreement.

D Sean Durzi – Originally a second-round pick of the Toronto Maple Leafs in 2018 and later traded for defenseman Jake Muzzin, Durzi took some time to make it to the NHL, but has now established himself as a piece of the Kings future on the blueline. The 23-year-old made his NHL debut on November 24th against the team that drafted him, skating in all of the Kings’ final 64 games, recording 27 points and averaging 19:36 in time-on-ice, good for sixth amongst Kings’ skaters. Given his experience, Durzi isn’t yet arbitration eligible, but he could still wind up with a rather significant contract extension due to his age and his emergence as a building block in Los Angeles.

Other RFA’s: F Jaret Anderson-Dolan, F Lias Andersson, F Carl Grundstrom, F Johan Sodergran, F Vladimir Tkachev, F Gabriel Vilardi, D Frederic Allard, D Michael Anderson, G Matt Villalta

Key Unrestricted Free Agents:

F Andreas Athanasiou – The soon-to-be 28-year-old had the unfortunate luck of dealing with injuries throughout his walk-year, playing in just 28 games this season. On the bright side for Athanasiou, he did manage 17 points in that span, the second-highest points-per-game total of his career. After being allowed to leave the Edmonton Oilers following the 2019-20 season, Athanasiou signed a one-year, $1.2MM contract for the shortened 2020-21 season, where he impressed with 23 points n 47 games, earning a one-year, $2.7MM contract for this season. Athanasiou may have been due a higher salary and perhaps additional term this time around, but given his injury issues this season, that may not be the case. Still, given his production when he is in the lineup, the Kings could realistically bring Athanasiou back, and supplement his spot in the lineup with some of their younger players if the injuries persist.

D Alexander Edler – Once seen as a lifetime member of the Vancouver Canucks, Edler wasn’t brought back to Vancouver after the 2020-21 season and ultimately signed a one-year contract worth $3.5MM with Los Angeles. Edler had a solid bounce-back season with the Kings, albeit in limited action, recording 19 points in 41 games, including an impressive plus-18 rating. The 36-year-old defenseman probably won’t be offered the career-high $6MM AAV he carried in 2019-20 and 2020-21, but did show this season that he absolutely still belongs in the NHL if he wants to stay. What Edler chooses to do is still up in the air, as he may not want to venture too far from the west coast where he has spent his entire NHL career, but options may be more limited for an older defenseman who could command at least $3.5MM next year, if not more.

D Olli Maatta – Not the player he was when he burst onto the scene with the Pittsburgh Penguins in 2013-14, Maatta has revived his career to an extent, showing he can be a reliable player on an NHL team. Though recording just eight points in 60 games with the Kings this season, Maatta did show promise with his plus-17 rating in 18:17 of average time-on-ice. The six-year, $24.5MM contract he just finished is likely not something he will find as a UFA this offseason, but Maatta should be an intriguing option for a number of teams, now marketed as a steady veteran defenseman.

Other UFA’s: F Martin Frk, D Nelson Nogier, D Troy Stecher, D Austin Strand, D Christian Wolanin, G Garret Sparks

Projected Cap Space:

Los Angeles projects to have just under $20MM in cap space this offseason, $19.863MM to be exact, with only a few semi-expensive moves to make. For one, they will have to give Kempe his predictably large raise and while they may be able to bring Durzi back on a team-friendly cap hit, they may be better off inking the defenseman long-term given his age, but that may create a larger cap hit than necessary for next season. Although $20MM may seem a bit low for a team that is still coming off of a rebuild, when factoring in the fact that the Kings have a bulk of their core signed for multiple seasons, including Anze Kopitar, Phillip Danault, and Drew Doughty who are all already signed long-term, the number feels more understandable and workable.

With the remaining space, the King will likely look to add a few pieces to help round out a team that wasn’t necessarily expected to make the playoffs this season, let alone take the Oilers to seven games in the first round, especially considering they got just 39 games total from Doughty, a franchise cornerstone. If the organization wants to create additional cap space, they could look to trade goaltender Jonathan Quick, who carries a $5.8MM cap hit next season, and move onto Calvin Petersen full-time.

Free Agent Focus: Minnesota Wild

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Free agency is now less than a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in mid-July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Next up is a look at the Wild.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Kevin Fiala — Fiala might be the most high-profile casualty of GM Bill Guerin’s decision to buy out both Ryan Suter and Zach Parise last offseason. The Wild are facing a $6.3MM cap penalty from each of Parise and Suter’s buyouts for next season, and that figure rises to $7.3MM for the next two seasons after 2022-23. So, that has meant that the Wild have essentially acknowledged their reality with Fiala, that they can’t afford the long-term deal he could get from elsewhere and that the best option for both the team and player is a trade this offseason. So, for the Wild, Fiala’s restricted free agency isn’t about what his next contract will look like but is instead about what the return for him will be in a trade. Fiala had 85 points in 82 games this past year and drove the Wild’s second line. Fiala will face questions about his game, namely regarding his playoff woes, as he had only one playoff goal over the past two seasons. Additionally, there is the fair question of how a Fiala-led line would produce outside of an environment where they have another top line to absorb the opposing team’s toughest defensive matchups, as the Kirill Kaprizov line did in Minnesota. But even with those questions, Fiala is in line to be paid this summer, especially when one considers the additional leverage he will hold over any team that acquires him via trade.

D Jacob Middleton — The Wild made a slew of trade deadline additions in order to bolster their squad, and one of their lower-profile pickups was acquiring Middleton from the San Jose Sharks. The Wild surrendered goalie Kaapo Kahkonen in the deal, someone who was once considered to be the Wild’s “goalie of the future.” Guerin’s willingness to part with Kahkonen to get Middleton is an indication of how firmly he believed in Middleton’s fit in Minnesota. Middleton, 26, was brought to the Wild because of his physicality and overall defensive game. He averaged just under 18 minutes per night as a member of the Wild and also featured on their penalty kill. The Wild clearly like what Middleton brings, meaning an extension with some term attached can’t be ruled out. The presence of the buyouts obviously complicates things, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility that Middleton gets a contract between $2MM-3MM to stay in Minnesota, contracts similar to the ones other defense-first blueliners such as Tucker Poolman, Dylan DeMelo and Derek Forbort received.

Other RFA’s: F Mitchell Chaffee, F Nick Swaney, D Fedor Gordeev, G Dereck Baribeau

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

G Marc-Andre Fleury — The Wild acquired the 2021 Vezina Trophy winner at the trade deadline and alternated between him and Cam Talbot for the rest of 2021-22. The Wild are interested in a return for that tandem, but Fleury may be able to earn a larger contract from elsewhere. Fleury did not play to Vezina Trophy form last year, but he was still solid, especially after his trade to the Wild. He didn’t have a great playoffs, but few on the Wild did, and Fleury is at the point in his career where a small dip in performance isn’t likely to tank his earning potential anyway. Fleury is still widely viewed as a starting-caliber goalie, so while he’ll turn 38 later this year a retirement doesn’t seem to be in the cards just yet. What Fleury makes on the open market this offseason will likely depend on if he prioritizes fit over cost on his next contract and therefore whether he is willing to take a smaller contract in order to sign with the team he prefers.

F Nicolas Deslauriers — While the NHL is about speed and skill more than ever before, there is still room in the league for players like Deslauriers and his trip to unrestricted free agency will likely reflect that. The Wild acquired Deslauriers near the deadline to add some grit to their team, and Deslauriers did just that. He didn’t do very much else, with only three goals and zero assists in his 25 total games with the Wild, but that’s what’s about expected from Deslauriers, given that he has only 85 points in over 500 career games. Some fans might scoff at the idea of their team bringing Deslauriers in as a free agent, but he’s clearly valued by the league’s decision-makers and liked by his coaches. A return to Minnesota is definitely possible, although they could prefer to divert as many cap dollars as possible to scoring help in order to compensate for the expected loss of Fiala, which would then push Deslauriers out.

F Nick Bjugstad — Bjugstad, a Minneapolis native, is no longer the player that scored nearly 50 points on Aleksander Barkov’s wing in Florida. Major injury woes have taken their toll on Bjugstad’s play, and since scoring 49 points in 2017-18 Bjugstad hasn’t crossed the 20-point mark since. In Minnesota, Bjugstad has stabilized his career and become a semi-regular face in the Wild’s bottom-six. He didn’t play well enough this past year to earn a spot in the Wild’s postseason lineup, and despite his bottom-six role he has not featured on the Wild’s penalty kill. Bjugstad played on a $900k cap hit last season and, if Minnesota is interested, should be available to them at a similar number for next season.

Other UFA’s: D Jordie Benn, F Brandon Baddock, F Kyle Rau, F Nolan Stevens, F Dominic Turgeon, D Jon Lizotte, G Zane McIntyre

Projected Salary Cap Space

This is the area where the Wild face their greatest challenge. The previously mentioned buyouts of Suter and Parise have left Guerin and the Wild’s front office operating with a significantly lower effective salary cap than other clubs. The buyouts will cost the team nearly $13MM in cap space this offseason and $15MM for the next two after this summer. As a result, the Wild have only $6.5MM in projected cap space this summer. Trading defensemen with only one year left on their deals such as Dmitry Kulikov or even Matt Dumba could give them some more room, but whatever way you cut it the Wild will find it difficult to make major additions in the next few offseasons without some real creativity involved.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Free Agent Focus: Montreal Canadiens

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Free agency is now less than a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in mid-July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Next up is a look at the Canadiens.

Key Restricted Free Agents

G Sam Montembeault — Montembeault was forced into a breakout season in 2021-22 after injuries wreaked havoc on the Montreal crease. Claimed off waivers from the Florida Panthers at the beginning of the season, the idea was for Montembeault to serve as a third-string backup option to relieve the stress on the crease. With starter Carey Price missing most of the season, though, and backup Jake Allen battling multiple injuries throughout the year, the 25-year-old Quebec native started 30 games and made eight appearances in relief, posting an 8-18-6 record, .891 save percentage, 3.77 goals-against average, and one shutout. He struggled with consistency under his increased workload, usually being one of the biggest reasons Montreal won or lost. Despite the poor performance, though, he did pretty much what you’d expect a third-string option to do in that situation. Montembeault will almost certainly be issued a qualifying offer and retained, considering that Allen remains the only healthy netminder under contract for next season.

D Alexander Romanov — Montreal’s 38th overall selection in the 2018 draft continues to track better than expected. While the scoring hasn’t been there for Romanov just yet, he was drafted for his defensive upside, and he’s beginning to deliver. Thrust into a top-four role this season in Shea Weber’s absence, Romanov provided good defensive results, albeit in a slightly sheltered role. He’ll likely increase his point totals somewhat from his 13 points in 79 games in 2021-22 under a surely more gifted team next season, tracking to be an important complementary defender in Montreal for years to come. Depending on how confident Montreal is in his development, it wouldn’t be too surprising to see them try to lock Romanov in longer-term this offseason to ensure some lasting value.

F Rem Pitlick — One of the best waiver claims in the league this year (and one-third of Montreal’s band of Pitlicks), 25-year-old Rem finished the season with 37 points in 66 games split between the Canadiens and Minnesota Wild. Getting top-six minutes in Montreal, he managed 26 of those points in his 46 games with Montreal. Pitlick’s poor advanced defensive numbers and sky-high 23.1 shooting percentage are some red flags, though, and it’s hard to imagine Montreal giving Pitlick anything longer than two or three years to stay around as a depth scoring option.

Other RFAs: F Joël Teasdale, F Michael Pezzetta, F Nathan Schnarr, D Corey Schueneman, D Josh Brook, D Kale Clague, G Cayden Primeau

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

F Mathieu Perreault — While a stat-line of nine points in just 25 games doesn’t scream “keeper material,” there’s a solid case for Perreault to stick around in Montreal uniform. Injuries were the primary limiting factor in his ice time (including a scary eye ailment), and he was one of the team’s better two-way players in a bottom-six that got routinely caved in. The 34-year-old veteran of 708 NHL games could be let go in favor of giving more time to younger players in the system, though.

F Tyler Pitlick — Rem’s cousin, Tyler arrived in Montreal mid-season courtesy of the Tyler Toffoli trade in February. He played just 14 games as a Canadien, though, averaging under 10 minutes per game. While injuries and COVID made him unavailable some nights, he didn’t exactly play his way into a regular role. After scoring just five points in 39 games this season between Montreal and Calgary, it could be the end of the NHL road entirely for the 29-year-old.

Other UFAs: F Alex Belzile, F Cedric Paquette, F Jean-Sebastien Dea, F Laurent Dauphin, F Lukas Vejdemo, D Louis Belpedio, D Sami Niku, D William Lagesson, D Xavier Ouellet

Projected Salary Cap Space

Montreal currently stands with just under $2MM in cap space this offseason, but that number is likely to increase dramatically by the time free agency rolls around and into next season. Trade rumors have been swirling around many members of the Canadiens, and it’s likely that at least one if not all of Jeff Petry ($6.25MM cap hit), Josh Anderson ($5.5MM cap hit), and Mike Hoffman ($4.5MM cap hit) are dealt. There’s also the possibility that Price’s $10.5MM cap hit may land on long-term injured reserve.

The Canadiens are unlikely to be big spenders in free agency regardless of their cap situation, but they’ll be able to re-sign everyone they wish despite the seemingly tight financial situation at first.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Free Agent Focus: Nashville Predators

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Free agency is now less than a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in mid-July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Next up is a look at the Predators

Key Restricted Free Agents:

F Yakov Trenin – Don’t let his point total fool you, Trenin was a breakout player this past season for the Predators and one of the better stories of their year. The 25-year-old Russian winger entered this campaign without much expectation, his eleven points in 45 games in 2020-21 not exactly setting the stage for him to become an important member of the team. But that’s exactly what Trenin did, as he established himself as a full-time NHL-er and an embodiment of the team identity coach John Hynes wants to see out of his Predators. You would be hard-pressed to find an NHL-er that plays with more passion than Trenin, and his fit on a crash-and-bang line with Tanner Jeannot and Colton Sissons entertained fans in Nashville all year. Trenin scored 17 goals this year and added three playoff goals in the team’s brief four-game postseason run. While he had only seven assists all year, Trenin’s goal-scoring, energy, and penalty killing (he averaged 1:40 shorthanded ice time per game, which ranked fourth among Predators forwards) proved valuable for Nashville, and those are the qualities that will help him in negotiations this summer.

Trenin is an arbitration-eligible free agent, meaning he does have some leverage, although his negotiations with Nashville probably won’t get to the point where arbitration is needed. It’s tough to find a perfect contract comparable for Trenin because what he brings to the table is so unique, especially within the context of the Predators and the team identity they want to have. A short or medium-term deal at around a $2MM-3MM AAV would make sense, as Trenin may not want to lock himself into a deal that takes him into his thirties while he has under 150 games of NHL experience.

F Luke Kunin – Kunin ranked eighth amongst Predators forwards in time-on-ice per game, and was fifth when excluding the aforementioned Trenin-Sissons-Jeannot line, a line that stuck together and played a very specific role for most of the season. So Kunin, a 2016 first-round pick, did not spend 2021-22 lacking the opportunity to be a difference-maker and put together a productive campaign. What he lacked was the ability to take advantage of that opportunity and fulfill the promise that saw him get drafted between Charlie McAvoy and Jakob Chychrun. Kunin had only 22 points in his full 82-game season this year, and that’s despite offensive resurgences from forwards across the Predators’ top-six, players like Matt Duchene, Ryan Johansen, and Mikael Granlund, the guys Kunin frequently shared the ice with. So that leaves him in a curious position entering the offseason, where he is an arbitration-eligible restricted free agent. This was a crucially important season for Kunin, who will turn 25 next year. His inability to seize the opportunities he’s been given has raised questions over whether his future is in Nashville long-term. Kunin comes with a $2.3MM qualifying offer, which isn’t a huge amount but also not an insignificant number. While it’s possible that the Predators and Kunin enter next season together, it would not be a surprise if he was headed elsewhere this summer.

F Cody Glass – While Kunin represents a first-round reclamation project of sorts that hasn’t gone well for the Predators, Glass is an example of a first-round reclamation project that has shown promise. Glass was acquired from the Vegas Golden Knights last summer in exchange for Nolan Patrick, who Nashville was able to send to Vegas thanks to the Ryan Ellis deal with the Philadelphia Flyers. Glass, 23, was the sixth-overall pick in 2017 and had been a lethal junior scorer, but his professional career had been derailed by injuries and inconsistency. The Predators likely believed that a change of scenery was what Glass needed, and they may have been right. Glass has thrived since the trade. He led the AHL Milwaukee Admirals in scoring with 62 points in 66 games and even earned a brief NHL call-up. A short, cheap extension for Glass makes the most sense for this season, as the Predators will definitely want to see if he can finally stick in the NHL full-time before beginning to think about any possibility of a long-term deal.

Other RFA’s: F Matt Luff, F Jimmy Huntington, F Thomas Novak, F Cole Smith, D David Farrance, G Devin Cooley

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

F Filip Forsberg – Right now, it seems as though the Predators’ offseason is entirely centered around what happens with Forsberg and his next contract, and GM David Poile seemed to acknowledge as much in his comments today. Forsberg is among the Predators’ most important players. A highly-skilled offensive dynamo, Forsberg had a career year this past season, scoring 84 points in 69 games. He’s the Predators’ all-time leading goal-scorer and means so much to the organization both on and off the ice. But a deal has yet to be completed, and the team and player are reportedly far apart in their negotiations, paving the way for a departure. The Predators pay their captain, Roman Josi, just over $9MM AAV on his long-term deal. It’s definitely possible that the Predators simply do not want anyone on their books with a higher cap hit than Josi, and it’s also definitely possible that Forsberg believes he can earn a bigger contract than that on the open market. Fellow play-driving left winger Artemi Panarin got over $11MM AAV to sign with the New York Rangers, so perhaps Forsberg is eyeing a similar mega-deal. From the Predators’ perspective, it will be extremely hard to find a player who can replace Forsberg at a cost that won’t be significant in either dollars or assets, so in order to keep their core intact, they might need to pay more for Forsberg than they’d like to. This is a high-stakes, high-pressure situation, and one that will have a major ripple effect on the entire Predators franchise, regardless of the outcome. 

D Matt Benning – Benning, the nephew of former Vancouver Canucks GM Jim Benning, quietly had a decent season in 2021-22. His offense isn’t why he’s in the NHL, and he had only 11 points in 65 games, but when he got into the lineup he provided steady, responsible play at a reasonable price. Benning ranked third among Predators defensemen in shorthanded ice time per game and showed versatility in where he could be played within the lineup. With Mattias Ekholm and Josi’s pairings set in stone for most of the year, Benning managed a rotating cast of partners on the team’s bottom pairing and the Predators acquired Jeremy Lauzon from the Kraken in part to ease his defensive burden. Benning cost $1MM against the cap last year and could likely be had on a similar deal for next season.

Other UFA’s: F Nick Cousins, D Ben Harpur, G David Rittich, F Brayden Burke, F Rocco Grimaldi, F Kole Sherwood, D Alex Biega, D Jeremy Davies

Projected Cap Space:

The Predators are projected to have just above $21MM in open cap space this summer, a healthy amount for a playoff team with as many veterans as the Predators have. A new extension for Forsberg will take a chunk of that cap space, and a possible extension for Trenin is of note as well. But with players such as Josi and Juuse Saros, two players who are among the best in the NHL at their position, locked into contracts and other veteran difference-makers such as Duchene, Johansen, and Granlund also under contract for the foreseeable future, the Predators to have room to maneuver in this offseason’s market.

Obviously, any plan they have will start with Forsberg, but if he does end up walking, the Predators will have a stockpile of cap space in a flat-cap league where having space is at its most important. They still have extensions for Jeannot and Phillip Tomasino on the horizon, so they can’t be reckless. But even with those future negotiations in mind, Predators have a world of possibilities open to them this summer. So while the fate of the Predators’ most skilled forward is uncertain, the ability of Poile and the Predators to be a major player this offseason is not.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Free Agent Focus: New Jersey Devils

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Free agency is now less than a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in mid-July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Next up is a look at the Devils.

Key Restricted Free Agents:

F Jesper Bratt – The rumors surrounding Bratt have already started swirling even during the Stanley Cup Finals, with conflicting reports on the forward coming from ESPN’s Kevin Weekes, who says the two sides haven’t begun talking and other teams are interested, and Ryan Novozinsky of the Star-Ledger, who confirmed with both Bratt’s agent, Joakim Persson and with the Devils, that the two sides had been talking. Whether Bratt stays in New Jersey, is traded, or even encounters an offer-sheet scenario, one thing is for sure: he’s going to get a hefty raise. A sixth-round pick in 2016, Bratt went from an unheralded prospect, to an NHLer, to a player who proved he could carry a line, to this year, where he proved he could carry an offense. The 23-year-old set career-highs with 26 goals, 47 assists, 73 points, in 76 games, those 73 points good enough to lead a Devils team that only had 49 games of Jack Hughes this season. Now at the conclusion of a two-year contract that carried an AAV of $2.75MM, Bratt could very likely see his salary double, if not more. New Jersey finds itself with an impeccable amount of salary cap space moving forward, so meeting Bratt’s asking price shouldn’t be an issue, but negotiating term and finding the proper overall value could hold the negotiation up.

F Miles Wood – The speedy winger missed the majority of this past season following a hip injury and surgery in the preseason. He would return to the lineup in late March, getting into three games before ultimately being shutdown for the remainder of the season. Wood has been a steady presence in the Devils lineup for the past few years, acting as the team’s primary agitator while also using his speed to create some offense too. With the Devils roster turnover as they try to put a close to their rebuild, it’s possible they could let the forward walk, but given their desire to add some “sandpaper” in to the lineup, simply keeping a familiar face in Wood who has the ability to play up and down the lineup would make sense without breaking the bank. New Jersey would also likely have control in the negotiations, considering Wood’s injury history and his status as a soon-to-be 27-year-old RFA, but it is worth noting that Wood is arbitration eligible this summer. Wood recently concluded a four-year, $11MM deal.

F Pavel Zacha – The first major piece of the Devils rebuild, it’s safe to say Zacha has not lived up to the expectations set for him when New Jersey drafted him sixth-overall in 2015. Zacha appeared to turn a corner in what could be described as a breakout 2020-21 season, where he totaled 35 points in 50 games, then a career-high. The forward would eclipse that career-high with 36 this year, but that was seen as a setback, considering he played in 70 games. On the heels of a three-year, $6.75MM contract and arbitration eligible, New Jersey could move on from Zacha, opting to give some of their prospects a chance at more regular ice-time, but given the flashes of talent he’s shown over the past two seasons along with a predictably reasonable price, it’s also quite likely the Devils will give Zacha another year in the Garden State.

F Jesper Boqvist, F Tyce Thompson, F Fabian Zetterlund

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

D P.K. Subban – The former Norris Trophy winner is coming off an eight-year, $72MM contract which saw him traded not once, but twice, finally landing in New Jersey. Although not the same player he once was, Subban’s name still holds weight as an exciting player on the ice with big hits and shots, and off the ice as a charismatic and community-driven player, evidenced by his 2022 King Clancy Award. Subban’s next contract won’t see him come too close to his previous $9MM AAV, however the 33-year-old should be able to find himself a role well-suited for him at a reasonable rate. Even with his recent regression, the ball may be largely in Subban’s court with contenders close to the salary cap looking to give him a tailored role as a powerplay specialist at a lesser rate or a team with more payroll flexibility and more minutes to offer looking for an exciting name and a dynamic leader. A return to New Jersey isn’t out of the picture, but the Devils do have a bevy of young talent on defense they will try to work into regular roles at the NHL level in the near future.

F Chase De Leo, F Brian Flynn, F Frederik Gauthier, F Mason Geertsen, F A.J. Greer, F Jimmy Vesey, D Colton White, G Jon Gillies, G Andrew Hammond

Projected Cap Space:

At a time when many NHL teams are struggling to stay cap-compliant, the Devils are able to breathe easy, with just over $25.3MM in available cap space this offseason. That number actually feels a bit restrictive when you consider the $56.1MM the team is currently projected to have after the 2022-23 season. Perhaps the best part of all of this for New Jersey, is this factors in Dougie Hamilton’s $9MM cap hit, Hughes’ $8MM cap hit, and Nico Hischier’s $7.25MM cap hit.

The main financial commitment the Devils have to make this offseason is Bratt, who could approach the $7MM AAV threshold. After Bratt, the team could bring back Zacha, Wood, and Subban, and still have plenty of room with which to work. The organization will likely use that remaining cap to address their goaltending issues, the team currently expected to ice Mackenzie Blackwood and Jonathan Bernier next season, both of whom dealt with significant injury issues in 2021-22, and perhaps one of the several dynamic forwards available on this year’s trade and free agency markets. Even with their cap freedom, the Devils will need to take care, with a significant number of players hitting free agency next summer, including RFAs Yegor Sharangovich, Ty Smith, Jonas Siegenthaler and UFAs Tomas Tatar, Andreas Johnsson, Ryan Graves, and Damon Severson, amongst others.

Free Agent Focus: New York Islanders

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Free agency is now less than a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in mid-July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Next up is a look at the Islanders.

Key Restricted Free Agents:

F Kieffer Bellows –  The 2016 first-round pick has had a slow start to his career, putting up just 25 points in 67 career games thus far, spread over three seasons. After his ELC expired last offseason, Bellows signed a one-year, $750K contract to stay with the Islanders for 2021-22, where he had a modest breakout with the club, recording a career-high six goals and 13 assists in 45 games. That performance was enough to turn some heads and prove Bellows may be able to make a career for himself in the NHL after all, but it likely won’t earn him much of a raise. Considering the Islanders issues with scoring, an aging roster, and limited cap space, Bellows could be in a strong position to see more regular ice-time, both in games played and time-on-ice, as a young and affordable piece who was drafted for, and has shown flashes of, his ability to put the puck in the back of the net.

D Noah Dobson – A 13 game roadtrip to start the season, a major COVID-19 outbreak in the locker room, and a several key injuries contributed to the Islanders missing the playoffs for the first time since 2017-18. Frustrating as the season may have been, one major bright-spot was the emergence of Dobson, who’s 13 goals and 38 assists for 51 points in 80 games all represented career-highs. Those 51 points were also good enough to place Dobson third on the team in scoring, not far behind Mathew Barzal and Brock Nelson’s 59 points, and his 21:28 of average time-on-ice, also a career-high, was enough to lead the team. Having established himself as one of the best and most important players for the team, and at the expiration of his ELC, Dobson is in line for a significant raise. Both team and player could have varying ideas of how to approach his next contract, perhaps opting for a long-term deal that would still bring him to UFA status at a relatively young age (an eight-year contract depositing him on the market at age 30), or perhaps a shorter bridge-deal that would keep Dobson a RFA or expiring right at the start of his UFA eligibility. Looking at the rest of the team, the two highest salaries come from Barzal and Anders Lee, each earning $7MM, and the team’s two top defensemen, Ryan Pulock and Adam Pelech, earn $6.15MM and $5.75MM respectively. However, all but Barzal signed as or as soon-to-be UFAs. One interesting comparable could be Quinn Hughes of the Vancouver Canucks, who signed a four year, $47.1MM contract at the expiration of his ELC, though he was coming off two consecutive years of production similar to Dobson’s single platform-year at this rate of production.

Other RFAs: F Michael Dal Colle, F Arnaud Durandeau, F Otto Koivula, D Robin Salo, D Parker Wotherspoon

Key Unrestricted Free Agents:

D Sebastian Aho – The other half of the NHL’s Sebastian Aho’s, the Islanders’ Aho is set to hit UFA after just his third NHL season as a Group 6 UFA. Aho brings with him 18 points in 61 games of NHL experience, with 12 of those points coming in 36 games this season, both career-highs. Interestingly, the 2017 fifth-round pick made his debut and played 22 games for the Islanders in 2017-18, but was limited to just one game of NHL action since before this season under the Lou Lamoriello front office. The situation would seem ripe for Aho to test free agency on his own to find an offering of regular ice-time with another organization, but the Islanders have just one left-handed defenseman under contract for next season (Pelech), a position that was a sore-spot for the team this year. Considering Aho’s strong season, which saw regular work down the stretch while the team was trying to make a push for the playoffs, Aho may have an opportunity for a regular job on Long Island.

D Zdeno Chara and D Andy Greene – The two veteran defensemen were brought in to bolster the team’s depth on the left side defensively, but both would end up struggling to a degree, showing their age. Chara, 45, and Greene, who will be 40 in October, may be destined for retirement at this point in their careers but both, being well-respected and long-tenured NHLers, should have no problem staying in the league in off-ice roles if they want to. Greene, an undrafted free-agent signed by Lou Lamoriello with the New Jersey Devils, then acquired by Lamoriello from New Jersey in February 2020, may have a chance to stick around as the team looks for affordable pieces to round out its roster, especially considering Lamoriello’s well-known loyalty to his players.

Other UFAs: F Andy Andreoff, F Austin Czarnik, D Thomas Hickey, D Grant Hutton, D Paul Ladue, D Mitch Vande Sompel, G Kenneth Appleby, G Cory Schneider

Projected Cap Space:

According to CapFriendly, the Islanders head into the offseason with just a tick over $12MM in cap space. On one hand, $12MM is plenty to work with when compared to other teams’ sticky situations and the team only has one pending free agent, Dobson, likely to eat up a significant amount of that. On the other hand, after the tough season on Long Island, they will certainly need to make improvements throughout the roster, with their cap space perhaps not being that amenable. Additionally, Lamoriello made several deals to help alleviate any cap issues the team had or was going to have, including trades of Devon Toews, Nick Leddy, and Andrew Ladd. These trades cost the team some depth, though bringing in three second-round picks altogether, but who may not be ready to make an impact just yet. If the veteran Islanders executive can find a way to move out an expensive veteran contract, such as that of Josh Bailey or the considerably younger Anthony Beauvillier, he could create some additional cap flexibility to make the necessary changes the team has to make.

Free Agent Focus: New York Rangers

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Free agency is now less than a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in mid-July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Next up is a look at the Rangers.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Kaapo Kakko — The 2019 second-overall pick’s adjustment to the NHL has been a bit slower than expected, and it’s been a struggle for him to translate the scoring talent he showed in Finland to the NHL level. In 157 career games, Kakko has 26 goals and 58 points, including 18 points in his 2021-22 campaign, a season where he missed a solid chunk of the Rangers’ games due to injury. Kakko enters his first free agency on mixed ground. The points aren’t there for him to get a lucrative, long-term deal, but he showed flashes of the upside that got him drafted so high in the first place during the Rangers’ run to the Eastern Conference Final, fitting in on a “kid line” with fellow first-rounders Filip Chytil and Alexis Lafreniere, a line that powered the Rangers past the Carolina Hurricanes before being ultimately broken up against Tampa Bay. Kakko’s puck protection skills and abilities along the boards are strong, and it’s definitely possible that after three years in the NHL he’s just on the cusp of finally producing offense. And with Valeri Nichushkin helping the Colorado Avalanche potentially lift the Stanley Cup in the coming days, he could serve as a cautionary tale in giving up too early on talented, toolsy top picks who don’t have the points to show for their strong play early in their careers. But on the other hand, it’s also very possible that Kakko’s tools never result in him producing significant offense. The Rangers need all the cap space they can get, so expect a one or two-year bridge deal at this point.

G Alexandar Georgiev — Before the arrival of Igor Shesterkin, there was once a time when Georgiev had a chance to be the heir to Henrik Lundqvist on Broadway. Georgiev’s first taste of NHL action went well, with a .918 save percentage in ten games, and his first two full-time seasons were similarly impressive, as Georgiev posted a .914 in 2018-19 and a .910 in 2019-20. 2020-21 was a bit shakier, and as Georgiev ceded more and more starts to Shesterkin his play began to suffer. He finished that year with a .905 in 19 games. This year, Georgiev had his worst season in New York, with a .898 save percentage in 33 games. He simply did not play to the level he’d shown an ability to play at in the past, and the strength of Shesterkin, the Vezina Trophy favorite, emphasized Geoorgiev’s failings even more. Georgiev is due a qualifying offer of $2.65MM, per CapFriendly, so it’s not a guarantee that Georgiev is even tendered an offer for the Rangers to retain his rights. If Georgiev is going to have a cap hit around that number next year, it probably won’t be in New York.

Other RFA’s: F Julien Gauthier, F Jacob Elmer, F Tim Gettinger, F Justin Richards, F Ty Ronning, F Austin Rueschhoff, D Libor Hajek, G Tyler Wall

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

F Ryan Strome — We previously covered the free agent situation of Ryan Strome in-depth, and it’s certainly a difficult situation for the Rangers to navigate. On one hand, Strome has fit extremely well in New York and produced like a strong top-six center. Over the past three seasons, Strome has 162 points in 200 games, which is a 66-point 82-game pace. Centers who can score in the 60-70 point range don’t hit free agency often, and when they do, they get paid. But Strome’s numbers do come with one slight asterisk: he’s been the linemate of Artemi Panarin, a superstar, play-driving offensive force. Panarin being mentioned isn’t meant in any way to downplay Strome’s skill — it’s not like you can just put any center on Panarin’s line and have him produce like Strome — but instead is meant to raise the question that Strome will need to answer this summer. Is he the play-driving, line-anchoring top-six center he’s produced like? Or is he more of a passenger, capable of piling up points when he gets the chance to ride shotgun next to elite scorers? The Rangers will be the first team that will need to ponder those questions as they consider whether to commit to Strome long-term.

F Andrew Copp — Copp was acquired from the Winnipeg Jets at the trade deadline, and he’s been everything the Rangers could have hoped for and more. Copp had 18 points in 16 games after the trade, and added on 14 points in 20 playoff games, giving him a grand total of 32 points in 36 games in New York. Before 2020-21, Copp was widely viewed as a defense-first, versatile forward who probably wouldn’t end up being an offensive difference-maker. But after putting up 39 points in 55 games during the pandemic-shortened 2020-21 season, his outlook has changed quite a bit. Now, he looks more like a true two-way force who can fit in a top-six. Given how well he played as a Ranger after the trade, it seems like staying in New York could be his best choice. But the Rangers will have a hard time finding enough cap space to keep both Strome and Copp, so they may end up having to choose one.

F Tyler Motte — Another member of the Rangers’ platoon of trade-deadline additions, Motte has endeared himself to both Rangers fans and fans of the team he became an NHL regular with, the Vancouver Canucks. It’s Motte’s hard-nosed, ever-active style of play that makes him so widely appreciated by both fans and coaches alike, but in the absence of offensive production, how much is that style of play worth? Motte had only 15 points in 58 games this season and only two in the Rangers’ playoff run. Offensive production isn’t what he’s in the NHL to provide, but it will put a ceiling on his earning power this summer. On the open market, it’s definitely possible that Motte could earn a deal with a decent term at around $1.5-2.5MM. Motte’s Rangers teammate, Barclay Goodrow, earned a long-term deal carrying a $3.6MM AAV coming off of a season where he had only five more points than Motte did this year, but Goodrow also had two Stanley Cup rings on his resume, an asset GM’s value highly and something Motte currently lacks. Wherever he ends up this summer, New York or elsewhere, look for Motte to quickly become a favorite of his coach and fanbase.

Other UFA’s: F Greg McKegg, F Kevin Rooney, F Frank Vatrano, D Justin Braun, F Anthony Greco, F Maxim Letunov, F Nick Merkley, G Adam Huska, G Keith Kinkaid

Projected Cap Space

This is where things get tricky for GM Chris Drury. The Rangers, on paper, are in decent shape. They have just under $12MM in projected cap space going into next season, a number that could rise even higher if they find a way out from under frequent healthy scratch Patrik Nemeth’s $2.5MM AAV deal. But just because New York has $12MM now doesn’t mean they can be just as active as they’ve been in the past. Next offseason, the Rangers will have both K’Andre Miller and Lafreniere hitting restricted free agency. The Rangers undoubtedly want to keep both in New York long-term, but spending significant money this offseason could make long-term deals for those two players nearly impossible. It could even be three players the Rangers want to lock up long-term if Chytil spends 2022-23 playing as he did against the Hurricanes. So while the Rangers definitely want to use this offseason to maximize their odds of overcoming the on-ice challenges they’ll face next spring, they can’t lose sight of the off-ice challenges they’ll face next summer. Those two (or three) looming deals could impact every choice the Rangers make in the next few months.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Free Agent Focus: Ottawa Senators

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Free agency is now less than a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in mid-July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Next up is a look at the Senators.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Joshua Norris — While Senators GM Pierre Dorion previously called the day he traded Mark Stone to the Vegas Golden Knights “one of the proudest” days he’d had in his career as a GM, it’s his trade of Erik Karlsson that was the real stroke of brilliance. Not only did the Senators receive the draft pick used to select budding star Tim Stutzle in exchange for their captain, they also received center Joshua Norris, who was then in his freshman season at the University of Michigan. Norris was drafted 19th overall in 2017 and has blossomed into a lethal goal scorer. With Brady Tkachuk at his side, Norris scored 35 goals this year and finished 2021-22 with 55 points in 66 games, a 68-point pace. Norris also showed some improvements in his defensive game. While Norris’ 20.3% shooting percentage is high enough to raise questions about the sustainability of his goal scoring, Norris did have a 17.7% shooting percentage in 2020-21 and some high-end goal scorers are simply capable of sustaining inflated shooting percentages thanks to their elite shooting talent. Norris could be in that category, and the Senators shouldn’t drag their feet in locking Norris down on a long-term deal. Montreal Canadiens center Nick Suzuki’s eight-year, $7.875MM extension could be a solid number for a maximum-term deal, and it would come under Tkachuk’s $8.2MM cap hit, meaning Norris wouldn’t be making more than the captain. The Senators may want something a bit cheaper, maybe along the lines of the five-year, $6.1MM AAV extension Dylan Larkin signed, but with comparable young centers like Suzuki and the New Jersey Devils’ Nico Hischier signing long-term deals north of $7MM AAV, expect any long-term deal for Norris to come in at around that number as well.

F Mathieu Joseph — Joseph is an extremely interesting case heading into this offseason. Earlier in the season, his offseason case would have looked pretty simple. As an arbitration-eligible restricted free agent, Joseph would have had the option to take whatever the arbitrator awarded him and inch closer to a trip to unrestricted free agency. But now, there could be more appetite to get an extension done from the team side of the equation, thanks to a mid-season trade to the Senators. Joseph arrived in Ottawa in exchange for Nick Paul and found immediate success there. He fit naturally next to Norris and Tkachuk, and in the first week of April Joseph had 10 points in just four games. It was that four-game stretch that served as an endorsement of Dorion’s belief in Joseph, and also serves as the root of uncertainty with Joseph entering this offseason. Do they pay him for what they think he can be? Or do they opt to let him take a one-year deal in order to see if the talent he flashed is there to stay? It’s a risky situation, because either option could easily end up being a mistake. If he plays as he did in that stretch over the course of a full season in Ottawa, his price skyrockets. But if the Senators commit now, there’s the chance that his scoring outburst was just a mirage, and they’ve overpaid for the idea of a player rather than the reality of the one they have. With all that in mind, Joseph seems like an under-the-radar pick for the most intriguing restricted free agent situation of the offseason.

F Alex Formenton — This past season was the year that winger Alex Formenton finally broke into the NHL full-time, and his impressive rookie year couldn’t have come at a better time, as he’s lined himself up for a nice raise from the $747k cap hit he played on last season. Formenton scored 18 goals and 32 points in 79 games last year, a goal total that ranked fourth on the Senators. Formenton’s speed is his best asset, and he got to show it off on the penalty kill. Formenton averaged just under 2 minutes of short-handed ice time per game, on a penalty kill that impressively ranked 13th in the NHL. Formenton looks like he could be a long-term asset in the Senators’ middle-six, providing valuable goal-scoring, speed, and special-teams ability. While a bridge deal is definitely possible, the Senators could also look to sign Formenton to a long-term deal in order to protect against any improvements to his game driving up his price.  Perhaps the best contract to use as a guide would be Buffalo Sabres forward Alex Tuch, who signed a seven-year, $4.75MM deal with the Golden Knights after a rookie season where he scored 15 goals and 37 points in 78 games, similar numbers to Formenton’s this year. $4.75MM is a lot to commit to Formenton for what he is now, but teams should be paying for what players are going to do, rather than what they’ve already done. Tuch quickly made his contract look like a steal and Formenton definitely has the talent to do the same.

Other RFAs: F Adam Gaudette, D Erik Brannstrom, G Michael McNiven

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

F Chris Tierney — Like Norris, Tierney also came to Ottawa as part of the Erik Karlsson trade. Unlike Norris, though, Tierney has played his way out of a long-term stay in Ottawa rather than played his way into one. Tierney’s first season with the Senators was a great follow-up to the promising final season he had with the Sharks. While he only scored nine goals, he finished with 48 points. While some expected the 24-year-old Tierney to build off of that season and have it serve as the baseline for the production that could be expected of him, Tierney regressed. First only a little, with a small decline in 2019-20 to only 37 points in 71 games. But it was 2020-21 where things really went downhill, as Tierney had only 19 points in 55 games, the lowest he’d ever marked in an NHL season. This year was no better, as he had 18 points in 70 games. Dorion stated at his end-of-season press conference that Tierney would not be extended in Ottawa, so he will look to find a role with another club seeking to unlock the potential he showed just a few years ago.

D Victor Mete — While Mete is technically a pending restricted free agent, Dorion has already stated that Mete would not be issued a qualifying offer and would therefore become an unrestricted free agent, hence him being listed here. Mete is an interesting case, as he’s the sort of player that, on paper, a team like Ottawa should be committing to developing. Mete, now 24, was once one of the Montreal Canadiens’ top defensive prospects, and he first made the NHL playing as Shea Weber’s partner. But while Mete’s abilities in transition as a puck-mover were always his calling card, no other aspect of his game developed as the Canadiens had hoped. Mete famously took 126 games to score his first NHL goal, and the lack of development of the rest of his tools, beyond his abilities in transition, caused the Canadiens to eventually waive him. Many were calling for teams to claim Mete, and the Senators did just that. But unfortunately for the Senators and Mete, it was more of the same in Ottawa, and by 2021-22 he found himself a frequent healthy scratch. Mete enters the offseason with the chance to choose his destination for the first time in his career, and given his history there still is some reasonable hope that he could develop into an NHLer. But the clock’s ticking on him, and the choice of his next destination will go a long way in determining if he’ll eventually turn into the NHL defenseman many once believed he could be.

Other UFA’s: F Tyler Ennis, F Andrew Agozzino, F Clark Bishop, F Scott Sabourin, F Zachary Senyshyn, F Logan Shaw, D Dillon Heatherington, D Zac Leslie

Projected Cap Space

This is where the Senators have an advantage over other teams. In a flat-cap era where having flexibility under the salary cap is at an absolute premium, Ottawa has over $20MM in projected cap space entering this offseason. Sure, a lot of that should be earmarked for potential extensions for Norris, Formenton, or even an early deal for Stutzle, but they’ll still have more room to maneuver than most teams. That’ll be especially true if they find a way to get out from under Matt Murray’s $6.25MM AAV deal. A buyout seems like the most likely solution, as it would not only save the Senators $5MM in real cash but also give them $4.5MM in cap savings this year and $5.5MM next year, at the cost of $2.5MM in dead money for the next two seasons after that. With the Senators looking to go hunting for a big name this offseason, expect their advantageous cap position to be leveraged to a great degree in order to maximize their ability to compete in the near future.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Free Agent Focus: Philadelphia Flyers

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Free agency is now less than a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in mid-July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Next up is a look at the Flyers.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Morgan Frost — Frost, 23, has had high expectations placed on him since he was drafted 27th overall at the 2017 draft. Frost was a prolific scorer at the junior level, notching over 100 points in his final two seasons for the Soo Greyhounds of the OHL. In Frost’s first professional season he flashed that scoring talent as well, potting 13 goals and 29 points in 41 games. Frost also got into 20 NHL games, and posted a respectable seven points, although he did at times struggle with the pace and physicality of the NHL game. A dislocated shoulder cost Frost almost all of the 2020-21 season, and this past season was one that wasn’t the clear developmental step forward that many hoped it’d be. Sure, he scored well at the AHL level, with 19 points in 24 games, but he was shuttled between the NHL and AHL level multiple times before settling in and getting into a total of 55 games for the Flyers. He finished with 16 points in 55 games at the NHL level, including four in his last five games, and at times flashed the offensive upside that made him such a tantalizing prospect in the first place. His two-way game is still a work in progress, though, and it remains to be seen if Frost can truly stick down the middle long-term at the NHL level. His overall upside is still very much a mystery, and as a result, his next contract is complicated. If the Flyers remain major believers in his upside, he could always ink a long-term deal, but that seems highly unlikely, especially since he was not a draft pick of GM Chuck Fletcher. A one or two-year bridge contract seems most likely.

F Owen Tippett —  Tippett, in some ways, is a lot like Frost. He’s also a 2017 first-rounder who has yet to establish himself as a full-time NHL-er but has also flashed the potential that got him drafted so high in the first place. Tippett came to Philadelphia as part of the Claude Giroux trade, and in his stretch as a Flyer (often playing on a line with Frost) Tippett had the up-and-down play that one would expect out of a highly skilled but also flawed young player. Tippett finished with seven points in 21 games, and also had 18 points in 14 games at the AHL level, a more clear reminder of the offensive talent he possesses. Like Frost, a short-term bridge makes the most sense for Tippett, who should come in at around a $1MM cap hit, if not lower.

F Zack MacEwen — MacEwen was claimed off of waivers from the Vancouver Canucks at the start of the 2021-22 season, and was one of only seven Flyers to reach the 75 games played mark. MacEwen, 25, is a hard-nosed grinder whose NHL minutes come thanks to his physicality and relentless motor. MacEwen isn’t much of an offensive producer — he had only nine points in 75 games in 2021-22 and has 18 points in his 130 career NHL games — but he plays a role many coaches still want in their lineup and does so at a cheap price. MacEwen played on an $825k cap hit this year and as he’s an arbitration-eligible restricted free agent, expect a small raise from that number to reward his hard work and availability.

Other RFAs: F Wade Allison, F Jackson Cates, F Hayden Hodgson, F Tanner Laczynski, F Isaac Ratcliffe, F Matthew Strome, F Maksim Sushko, D Linus Hogberg, G Kirill Ustimenko

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

F Nate Thompson — It’s been clear what Nate Thompson can bring at the NHL level for many years now. The 37-year-old center has been a bottom-six staple for nine NHL teams since making his debut in 2006-07. Thompson plays around 10-12 minutes per night, helps a second penalty-killing unit, and wins over half his draws. Thompson may not have a ton of gas left in his tank as he gets deeper into his late thirties, but if he still wants to play it’s easy to imagine him finding another suitor for the well-defined package of skills he brings. He clearly has an affinity for Philadelphia as well, as he signed up to return to the organization as a free agent after a year in Winnipeg, having first joined the Flyers as part of a 2020 trade with the Montreal Canadiens. It remains to be seen if the team’s expected next head coach, John Tortorella, will want Fletcher to retain his services, but if he does then Thompson could probably be had for around the $800k cap hit he played on this past season.

D Keith Yandle — Yandle was the subject of some controversy this season, as the Flyers snapped an “iron man” streak of consecutive games played that had lasted since 2009. Yandle is a well-liked locker room voice and a highly respected veteran, although his play on the ice has slipped considerably. After being bought out of his massive seven-year, $44.45MM deal, Yandle signed a one-year, $900k deal with the Flyers. He provided his trademark offense, albeit to a decreased degree, notching 19 points in 77 games. He also showed the defensive deficiencies that have plagued his game for years, deficiencies that have become even more pronounced as he’s aged. While Yandle is a player deserving of the utmost amount of respect for the career he’s had so far, it’s difficult to imagine a return to Philadelphia is in the cards for him. But given all that he’s put forth to date, he should probably be able to catch on somewhere this summer with a chance to make a team at a training camp next fall.

G Martin Jones – Like Yandle, Jones joined the Flyers after an offseason buyout forced an exit from his previous team. Unlike Yandle, though, Jones’ 2022 season was a quiet one. He got into 35 games and posted a .900 save percentage, a performance that isn’t anything to write home about. That production is made more palatable, though, by the fact that he was playing behind one of the NHL’s worst teams. The Flyers were a mess last season, and Martin Jones was far down on the list of their biggest issues. Jones is a veteran of nearly 400 NHL games and has flashed brilliance in the past, like when he led the San Jose Sharks on a run to the Stanley Cup Final in 2015-16. He’s a backup goalie who has in the past shown an ability to handle starter-level workloads, so another contract around the $2MM he earned this year, if not a touch lower, seems fair.

Other UFAs: D Kevin Connauton, F Ryan Fitzgerald, D Adam Clendening, D Brennan Menell, G Felix Sandstrom

Projected Cap Space

The Flyers enter an offseason where getting the team on track after two hugely disappointing years is a number-one priority. They have just over $5MM in cap space at the moment and their pending restricted free agents figure to occupy a small chunk of that. The real “X-factor” for this Flyers’ offseason, from a cap perspective, comes from whatever they choose to do with some of their highly-paid veterans. Defensemen Ivan Provorov and Travis Sanheim, making $6.75MM and $4.675MM against the cap, respectively, have each been the subject of trade rumors, as has winger James Van Riemsdyk, who is entering the final year of his $7MM-AAV deal. If the Flyers want space to aggressively upgrade their roster next month, they’ll likely have to move one of their major contracts.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

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