More On Erik Karlsson Trade: Pick Conditions, Extension, Colorado
Perhaps the biggest move of the off-season was completed earlier today, when Norris Trophy-winning defenseman Erik Karlsson was traded by the Ottawa Senators to the San Jose Sharks. The return: two-way NHL forward Chris Tierney, rookie forward Rudolfs Balcers, collegiate center and 2017 first-round pick Josh Norris, young depth defenseman Dylan DeMelo, and four draft picks. While the Senators don’t know for sure how the likes of Norris and Balcers will pan out, the players acquired in this deal are somewhat identifiable assets with ascertainable ceilings. The picks carry far more potential; however they also each carry conditions. The earliest possible pick chronologically would be a 2019 first-round pick. The Sharks owe the Buffalo Sabres their first round pick in the next NHL Draft as a condition for re-signing winger Evander Kane, but with the additional condition that they make the playoffs. Should they miss the playoffs – a catastrophic result for a team that now has meteoric expectations – the team could opt to send that pick to Ottawa and their 2020 first-rounder to Buffalo if they so choose. If not, and the Sharks make the playoffs as expected, the Senators will land that 2020 first-round pick.
Ottawa will still have an early pick from San Jose in June though, perhaps even earlier than expected. The condition on that pick is that it is the highest of the second-round picks owned by the Sharks: their own and the Florida Panthers’, which ironically was part of the return from the Sharks’ flip of former Ottawa forward Mike Hoffman earlier this year. Florida is expected to improve this season, but playing in the Atlantic Division with the Tampa Bay Lightning, Boston Bruins, and Toronto Maple Leafs means the Panthers face an uphill battle to make the playoffs and could easily end up with a draft slot in the first half of the second round. Whereas, the Sharks should by all accounts be a playoff team and more in the coming season.
Speaking of Hoffman, the Senators learned from that experience with Sharks GM Doug Wilson. As Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston notes, Ottawa threw in what may as well be a “Mike Hoffman Clause”. After San Jose traded for Hoffman only to trade him hours later to one of the Senators’ division rivals, GM Pierre Dorion added a conditional future first-round pick if Karlsson is traded back to the Eastern Conference this season. The pick must be exchanged by 2022 at the latest.
Finally, the Sharks sent a 2021 second-round pick to the Senators that carries two conditions. The pick itself is conditional upon San Jose re-signing Karlsson, whose current contract expires at the end of the season. If the Sharks both appear in the Stanley Cup Final this year and extend Karlsson, that pick becomes a first-rounder. In summary, at worst the Senators will receive a second-rounder in 2019 and the Sharks’ first-rounder in 2020 and at best they receive three first-round picks between now and 2022 and potentially a first-round and early second-round pick next year.
- One condition that is already looking good for the Senators is the one that hinges on Karlsson re-signing in San Jose. Although there has been no word from the star defenseman’s camp on his future or thoughts on a contract extension, Wilson already has the future in mind. Although the relatively underwhelming return for a player of Karlsson’s caliber reflects the risk of just one year remaining on his salary, Wilson made the deal with hopes of keeping him around for much longer. Wilson told the gathered media this afternoon that “It’s a long-term approach and we think Erik fits for now and for a long time.” While Karlsson has been clear that he wants to be the highest paid defenseman in the NHL and that would be best served on the open market, the Sharks have the salary cap composition moving forward to meet his contract demands. If the season goes according to plan and the Sharks win or come close to winning the Stanley Cup, with Karlsson playing a key role for what on paper looks like the best defense in the league, he could be tempted to skip free agency and re-sign in San Jose.
- Although the Karlsson trade was between just two teams, there is no way to truly evaluate the reverberations of this trade without discussing the Colorado Avalanche. The Senators have changed the tone of their public relations approach following this trade, being clear that they have entered a rebuild. However, the fact remains that the Senators don’t own their first-round pick next season. That selection belongs to the Avs as part of the Matt Duchene trade. With Karlsson’s departure, the team that many pegged to be the worst in the league has now lost their best player and have an even better chance of finishing the season in 31st place. This would also give them the best odds in the NHL Draft Lottery and the best odds of drafting projected franchise center Jack Hughes. However, that fate belongs to Colorado, who now stand a very high chance of seeing an already lopsided return for Duchene reach its maximum value. The 2018-19 Senators season will now likely matter more to Avalanche fans than it does to their own. To make matters worse, publicly committing to a rebuild could mean that Duchene, an impending unrestricted free agent, doesn’t even last the season on the Ottawa roster.
Snapshots: Blues, Panarin, Boeser
The St. Louis Blues had some good news and bad news today, announcing that Robby Fabbri was officially activated from injured reserve while Nikita Soshnikov is out indefinitely with another concussion. Fabbri is an extremely interesting player for the Blues this season as he tries to return to form after two major knee surgeries. He re-signed for just $925K this offseason and is determined to get back to the top-six talent he showed when he scored 33 goals and 81 points in 143 games to begin his career.
Soshnikov on the other hand is an extremely unfortunate situation, given his history of head injuries. The 24-year old forward played just 12 games with the Blues after coming over from the Toronto Maple Leafs last season, and hasn’t been able to stay healthy enough to show much of anything during his short NHL career. With just 16 points in 82 games and an uncertain future, the Blues may have to look elsewhere for help in their bottom-six.
- Artemi Panarin spoke to the media today at Columbus Blue Jackets training camp and reiterated that today marked the end of any contract negotiations for the season. The star forward told Alison Lukan of The Athletic that “the focus is on hockey” now and that nothing has changed in the position he detailed this summer. Panarin had told the Blue Jackets that he didn’t want to negotiate a long-term extension with the team but that he also wasn’t demanding a trade and actually indicated his love of the organization. It’s still to be seen whether the Blue Jackets will allow Panarin to get all the way to unrestricted free agency next summer without a contract or trade him during the year to recoup some of the assets they sent to Chicago for him last summer. His contract does not include any trade protection, and there would likely be dozens of suitors lining up for his services if made available.
- The Vancouver Canucks will come back to the table with Brock Boeser and his representation after the season, according to Rick Dhaliwal of Sportsnet who spoke with GM Jim Benning today. The two sides have made the decision to put the talks aside while Boeser plays out the final season of his entry-level deal, at which point there will be a chance for a long-term deal. It makes sense for the 21-year old forward to wait, as he’s coming off a season that was cut short due to injury and could easily improve his position by putting up another big goal total. With 33 in his first 71 games in the NHL, there’s no reason to believe that Boeser couldn’t vault himself into the 40-goal camp and set up a huge negotiation next summer.
Tyler Seguin Signs Extension With Dallas Stars
The Dallas Stars have signed superstar center Tyler Seguin to an eight-year contract extension that will carry an average annual value of $9.85MM. Seguin was headed into his final year under contract and scheduled for unrestricted free agency next summer, but will now remain with the Stars through the 2026-27 season. The contract is heavily front-loaded, and also contains a no-movement clause that will also cover the upcoming season. The full breakdown:
- 2019-20: $13.5MM
- 2020-21: $9.0MM
- 2021-22: $13.0MM
- 2022-23: $13.0MM
- 2023-24: $8.45MM
- 2024-25: $8.0MM
- 2025-26: $7.1MM
- 2026-27: $6.75MM
Seguin, 26, has established himself as one of the very best players in the league in recent seasons, and took that to a whole new level in 2017-18. Along with an improved defensive game, Seguin tallied a career high 40 goals and broke 70 points for the fifth consecutive season. While the Stars disappointed and didn’t make the playoffs, Seguin and linemate Jamie Benn were still devastating in all situations and are the core of a team that should rebound this season. This deal likely means that Seguin will play out the rest of his career in Dallas, but is still in his prime and should be a Hart Trophy candidate going forward.
The fact that the Stars got him locked up for under $10MM per season is a testament to how much Seguin truly wanted to stay in Dallas. Though he was clear in his disappointment earlier this summer, he never did waver from the fact that he would like to stay with the organization moving forward and was hoping something would get done. Easily compared to John Tavares who reached unrestricted free agency this year and has had a similar career path, Seguin likely could have made close to (or even more than) the $88MM contract handed out by the Toronto Maple Leafs just a few months ago.
Dallas now has more than $55MM committed to just 13 players for the 2019-20 season, but with Benn, Seguin, Alexander Radulov, John Klingberg and Ben Bishop locked up can feel happy with their core moving forward. Jason Spezza‘s $7.5MM cap hit will come off the books in less than a year, giving them more flexibility moving forward to lock up their other young talents.
Though long-term deals always come with some risk, the Stars have done well to limit it in this contract. The salary cap will likely increase at least somewhat in the next few seasons, and by the time Seguin starts to experience a decline in performance the actual salary left on the deal will have started to decline appropriately. For now, they have locked up a top talent for considerably less than he would have received on the open market and set their franchise up for success.
This deal continues a trend of 2019 UFAs signing long-term extensions, and takes another one of the potential superstars off the market. Seguin, Max Pacioretty, Ryan Ellis, Ryan McDonagh, Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Drew Doughty were all scheduled to hit unrestricted free agency next summer but have instead signed lengthy deals to stay with their (sometimes new) teams. Teams hoping to get their hands on the remaining players may have to pay up quickly or risk them being unavailable for years to come.
Jake Allen, Others To Miss Start Of St. Louis Training Camp
The St. Louis Blues have some lofty expectations this season after a strong summer spending spree, but much of those hopes come down to goaltender Jake Allen. The team lost backup Carter Hutton to Buffalo in free agency and signed Chad Johnson in his wake, leaving Allen as the clear starter for this year. Bad news has already come out regarding the team’s starter though, as today they announced that Allen will miss the first 10-14 days of training camp with back spasms. Prospect Erik Foley and goaltender Luke Opilka will also be out indefinitely following a recent concussion and hip surgery respectively.
The team also announced cuts to six players from the training camp roster, including first-round pick Dominik Bokk. As we wrote recently, Bokk is expected to play in Sweden for all of 2018-19.
Allen, 28, took a fairly substantial step backwards last season and was part of the reason the Blues missed the playoffs entirely, registering a .906 save percentage in 59 games. That was good enough for just a 27-25-3 record, and though some of that had to do with the play in front of him the Blues need more from the goaltending position this year. In the 2016 offseason Allen was given a four-year contract extension a year before he reached free agency and already in the 2016-17 season you could tell that it may have been a bit premature. The goaltender wasn’t even included on a road trip with the team, but after changing goaltending coaches an incredible run during the second half of that season and into the playoffs turned around his numbers. Those changes didn’t last, but the Blues have made it clear that they will live and die with Allen in net.
Johnson, the other option, was one of the worst backup goaltenders in the league last season with the Buffalo Sabres, recording an .891 save percentage and a 3.55 goals against average. Though he does have some solid seasons in his past, there is little reason to believe that he could take over the Blues net for an extended period of time and get them to the playoffs. That leaves just young prospect Ville Husso if Allen struggles or deals with injury, and though he’s coming off a good season in the AHL it’s hard to expect a ton at the NHL level for the 23-year old goaltender.
Poll: How Many Pending UFAs Will Stay With Ottawa?
The Ottawa Senators made waves last night when they released a bizarre marketing video that seemed intended to settle down fans and sponsors upset with the direction of the team. Owner Eugene Melnyk and defenseman Mark Borowiecki discussed the roster, and how it may look completely different over the next 12 months. Melnyk even went so far to say there will be 10 “new”—rookies or players who played around ten games last season—on the roster this season and 15 or 16 in 2019-20. While that seems difficult to pull off for the 2018-19 season given the veteran group that is there right now, perhaps there is huge turnover coming in the next few weeks and months.
When looking at the Senators salary structure, there is certainly a few things that stick out. Only Bobby Ryan is signed for more than three seasons, and just Marian Gaborik and Zack Smith are even under contract that long. Almost the entire roster is set to hit unrestricted free agency in either 2019 or 2020, meaning there is a good chance they could have a much different looking group down the line.
That different look though is predicated on the idea that the Senators won’t re-sign any of their pending free agents. While Erik Karlsson seems like he’ll be gone soon and at the very least won’t be re-signing with Ottawa, Mark Stone and Matt Duchene have both remained open to the idea. Beyond them though are other key players like Ryan Dzingel and Chris Wideman, both scheduled for unrestricted free agency in 2019.
So how many of those pending UFAs will stick around? Vote below for all the players who you believe will re-sign with the Ottawa Senators before the beginning of the 2019-20 season. Leave your comments on where you think they are heading below!
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Alex Chiasson Signs Professional Tryout With Edmonton Oilers
The Edmonton Oilers have signed Alex Chiasson to a professional tryout agreement, inviting him to challenge for a job at their upcoming camp. Chiasson spent last season with the Washington Capitals but was allowed to walk into unrestricted free agency this summer.
Chiasson, 27, will have his name engraved on the Stanley Cup along with the rest of the Capitals despite not actually suiting up during their series against the Vegas Golden Knights. The journeyman forward has never played more than two full seasons with an NHL team, suiting up for Dallas, Ottawa and Calgary before his stint in Washington. In 61 games with the Capitals last season he recorded nine goals and 18 points, though three of those points did come short-handed. There is a potential for him to carve out a role like that in Edmonton, especially given they’re not exceedingly deep up front.
Fellow Oilers PTO Scottie Upshall has a similar set of skills and will likely be in direction competition with Chiasson, but neither seem like locks to earn an NHL deal. Still, Edmonton desperately needs all the help they can get as they try to rebound from an extremely disappointing season and will turn over every rock in search of a valuable NHL player.
Panarin And Bobrovsky Not Guaranteed To Begin Season With Columbus
After extending their front office and reportedly being close on a new deal with head coach John Tortorella, many are wondering why the Columbus Blue Jackets haven’t placed the same focus on resolving the impending free agency of stars Artemi Panarin and Sergei Bobrovsky. Blue Jackets fans would prefer both sign long-term, but if they depart, the team must get something in return. GM Jarmo Kekalainen knows this and has to be open to moving either player if the right offer presents itself.
As such, Kekalainen told NHL.com’s Tom Gulitti that he couldn’t commit to either phenom being on the Opening Night roster next month:
I can’t. In this business, there’s always talks between the general managers whether you’ve got pending free agents or not. We talk regularly. Sometimes there’s trades. So I’m not speculating on them. I’m just saying we talk all the time, so I wouldn’t say about any player whether they’re a pending free agent or not that they’ll be on our team in October because anything can happen between now and Oct. 3… I think we have to make some decisions based on where it goes at the appropriate time. If we can’t work out a contract, then we’ll have to make some decisions. I wouldn’t say they’re just going to stay and ride out into the sunset… Where we’re at with our team, we have to make some decisions and we’re hopeful we can get contracts done. If not, we’ll have to make some decisions… We want to keep them and we haven’t been able to be successful yet in extending their contracts, but we’re still optimistic we can get things done and we feel they can be a huge part of our team in the future. We’re going to have a good team into the future and hopefully they want to be part of it. That’s our mindset right now, to keep working at it… We want to have them here as long as we can, both of them. They are huge parts of our team. I don’t think anybody understands how big a role they play on our team. It is what it is. They have that right within their contract to do that, so you can’t blame a guy for doing that. Hopefully our season doesn’t revolve around that. I think that would be a shame.
This may not be what Columbus fans were hoping to hear, especially before the season has even begun. The team has until next July 1st to sign both players, who will otherwise be highlights of the summer market, and has more than seven months until the NHL Trade Deadline to figure out a trade. While they may get a superior return early on, it’s hard to imagine that the team will be as successful in 2018-19 if either player was absent for the whole campaign.
Minor Transactions: 9/7/18
Rookie camps have begun, veterans are returning, and the preseason is right around the corner. Yet, teams and players alike continue to make decisions for the coming season. Here are some of those moves made today:
- NHL veteran Adam Pardy has found himself a nice landing spot for the twilight of his career. The 34-year-old defenseman was forced into the international route last season to continue playing, signing with Frolunda of the Swedish Hockey League after twelve pro seasons in North America and 342 NHL games. Pardy will now return home by nearly returning home in a literal sense. Pardy has signed with the ECHL’s newest club, the Newfoundland Growlers. The team plays in St. John’s, not far from Pardy’s hometown of Bonavista, Newfoundland. The league announced that the Growlers had signed Pardy to a one-year deal, but the experienced blue liner may find a natural fit as the veteran leader of the young, developmental roster and so close to home, and end up with the team for another year or two longer.
- Former Vancouver Canucks prospect Mackenze Stewart has signed a contract in the ECHL as well, but the 23-year-old is far from the end of his career. Stewart, a 2014 seventh-round pick, became an unrestricted free agent this off-season when his entry-level contract expired and the Canucks opted to not extend a qualifying offer. Stewart has always had good size and played a hard-nosed game and is even one of the few skaters in hockey who can comfortably transition from forward to defense. However, the WHL prospect has never quite developed the high-end skill needed to compete in the NHL or even the AHL. In his three pro seasons, Stewart has 132 ECHL games to his credit compared to just six in the AHL and has struggled to produce at any level. He has improved slightly each year and perhaps he can still develop into a serviceable pro. The Toledo Walleye at least see some potential in the big man; they announced a one-year contract with Stewart and went so far as to confirm that he will have guaranteed role in the defensive corps.
- Reid McNeill likely could have avoided the ECHL in the coming season, but rather than wait around for the right AHL fit and risk spending time at the “AA” level, the former Pittsburgh Penguins prospect has decided to move overseas. McNeill has signed with Dornbirner EC, an Austrian club in the EBEL. The Bulldogs announced a contract with the AHL veteran, adding him to the roster just one week prior to the start of the EBEL regular season. McNeill, 26, was a sixth-round pick of the Penguins back in 2010 and spent five years with the organization, almost entirely with their minor league affiliate in Wilkes-Barre/Scranton. At 6’4″, 216 lbs., McNeill is a big, physical player and a punishing defensive presence. McNeill reached free agency last summer and signed an AHL contract with the Syracuse Crunch. He went on to play a leadership role as an alternate captain for the team and had a strong season to boot. Now with Dornbirner, McNeill could be a true No. 1 defenseman for the Bulldogs.
Latest On Matt Duchene, Ottawa Senators
The Ottawa Senators look like they may have the keys to the 2019 free agent market at the moment, with Erik Karlsson, Mark Stone and Matt Duchene all heading into their final seasons. Duchene, the 27-year old center that Ottawa put together a big package of assets for last season, has spoken about how he would like to stay with the Senators if possible in the past, but today denied that the two sides have had any talks. Frank Seravalli of TSN quotes Duchene, who also notes the appeal of unrestricted free agency.
It’s the first time you have that ultimate power as a player and you have to do what’s best for you.
Duchene, like any other pending free agent, just watch John Tavares reach free agency and finally decide to follow his heart back to his hometown. A seven-year, $77MM deal awaited Tavares in Toronto, and while Duchene may not command that kind of commitment he would certainly be a sought after asset next summer. Just today, Craig Custance of The Athletic (subscription required) released an article speaking with other star players who took notice of Tavares’ decision and respect how he took care of himself over any loyalty to his former team.
While none of this means that Duchene’s tenure in Ottawa is coming to an end, it has to be on the mind of the front office after spending so much last season to bring him in. The Senators’ season went downhill quickly after acquiring Duchene, but at the time there was already talk about extending him long-term if possible. GM Pierre Dorion had coveted Duchene for some time, and after a rocky start the star center fulfilled on some of his potential. With 49 points in 68 games for the Senators, Duchene showed that he can still be a very effective offensive player and could be a key member of a group that has been pushed into rebuild status without even trying.
Duchene was eligible for an extension on July 1st, but as he explained to Seravalli there have been more pressing matters to deal with in Ottawa this summer. With the Karlsson situation still hanging over the franchise and training camp opening in a few days, there may not be news on a contract extension for Duchene anytime soon. With every day that passes free agency becomes more and more enticing though, so the Senators have to make sure they make a decision on Duchene’s future before long.
Long Negotiation With Ryan Ellis Was Watched By Oilers, Maple Leafs
One of the biggest contracts signed this summer in the NHL was an eight-year $50MM extension handed out to Nashville Predators defenseman and associate captain Ryan Ellis. That contract was filed on August 14th, six weeks after Ellis originally became eligible to add some years on to his current situation. A deal for one of their most important players was obviously at the very top of the to-do list for GM David Poile and the rest of the Predators front office, but as Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic (subscription required) details there was a ton of work involved to come to the final agreement. Interestingly, LeBrun mentions the Toronto Maple Leafs and Edmonton Oilers specifically when speaking about teams that were keeping a close eye on the Ellis situation, hoping it would deteriorate and he would be put on the trade market.
For the Maple Leafs, it’s easy to see why they would be interested. The Ontario-born Ellis was a superstar in the OHL before heading to Nashville, and his two-way skill from the right side would be a perfect complement to the Maple Leafs left-heavy defense group. With Morgan Rielly, Jake Gardiner and Travis Dermott locked into the left, if the Maple Leafs are going to improve the blue line—as so many believe they desperately need to do in order to contend—there aren’t many fits better than Ellis available. They would have to try to convince him to sign long-term, but some of the sticking points in Nashville like signing bonuses and trade protection haven’t been off the table so far with young GM Kyle Dubas.
The Oilers might need Ellis even more desperately though, after a wasted season near the bottom of the standings despite Connor McDavid‘s outstanding play. When blue line members like Oscar Klefbom and Adam Larsson took a step backwards last season it was clear that McDavid couldn’t carry the load all by himself. Edmonton struggles at times to get the puck quickly out of their zone with any sort of control, something that Ellis excels at while also contributing offensively. They too have a need on the right side, and don’t have the cap space to acquire a very expensive asset. Ellis is earning just $2.5MM on the final year of his current contract, as one of the biggest bargains in the league.
That the Maple Leafs and Oilers were interested in Ellis—at least in passing—shouldn’t come as much of a surprise, though it does make the next few months even more interesting. With a player like Erik Karlsson still without an extension in Ottawa, and others like Tyler Myers and Nate Schmidt heading into their final years before free agency, the two teams will likely still be keeping an eye on various situations to see if they can improve.