Jonathan Bernier’s Success Could End Up Costing The Anaheim Ducks
The Anaheim Ducks made a decision in the off-season to trade Frederik Andersen to the Maple Leafs and install John Gibson as the full-time starter. The young netminder had shown an extremely high ceiling in 2015-16, when he finished the year with a .920 save percentage and split the William Jennings trophy with Andersen. The Ducks were hitching their wagons to Gibson, but wanted someone a little more established behind him just in case. They decided to take back Jonathan Bernier from the Leafs, even at a substantial cap-hit so that they would have a backup capable of playing 25-30 games and helping them into the playoffs. 
Bernier was never expected to wrestle the starting job away, but when the young Gibson went down with an injury in late February he was forced into the number 1 role and has flourished ever since. With Gibson returning for one game this month only to re-aggravate his injury, the Ducks will use Bernier down the stretch to get them into the playoffs. Since Gibson went down on February 20th, Bernier has posted a .943 save percentage and is looking like a realistic choice to start the playoffs if his partner isn’t fully healed. Gibson for his part hasn’t returned to practice, though Eric Stephens of the Orange County Register reports that he has skated on his own.
With ten games left in the Ducks’ season before another playoff appearance, some doubt may now be entering the mind of head coach Randy Carlyle on who will be his starting goaltender in the postseason. Should Gibson miss most of the remaining few weeks, it would be hard to reinsert him into the net for the first round. That is where we (finally) get to the headline and the potential for a lost asset for the Ducks.
When they took Bernier from the Maple Leafs, it was for a draft pick with conditions that seemed so unlikely to trigger that they didn’t look like they would have to send anything to Toronto at all. Those conditions are based on Bernier playing in at least 50% of the Ducks playoff games, and the team getting to the Stanley Cup Final; they’ll give up a second-round pick should they win it all, while surrendering a third-rounder if they fall in the final series. With Gibson ready to take over that seemed like a far fetched condition and one that Bernier showed little capability of fulfilling during his final season in Toronto. But now, as he looks like the goaltender everyone thought he would become in Los Angeles, it doesn’t seem as insane as it once did.
After all, he doesn’t necessarily need to get them the entire way. He could play just the first two rounds before Gibson returns, and still qualify for the condition. Sure, some may say it’s worth it if the Ducks are going to go to the Finals anyway, but that shouldn’t reduce the value of the pick being lost. Ducks fans should be hoping even more that Gibson is ready to go next month, while Maple Leafs fans are praying that their old teammate can give them one last gift before hitting free agency this summer.
Sharks Sign Quinnipiac’s Tim Clifton
Monday: The Sharks have officially announced the signing.
Saturday: The San Jose Sharks have entered the college free agent mix, as TSN’s Frank Servalli reports that the team has agreed to an entry-level contract with Quinnipiac University forward Tim Clifton. It is a two-year, two-way deal for the 24-year-old undrafted center. With Quinnipiac eliminated from the ECAC conference tournament by Harvard last night and not in the mix for an at-large bid for the NCAA Tournament this year, Clifton will now likely head to San Jose to join the AHL Barracuda for the remainder of the season.
Clifton’s NHL signing may come as a surprise to some. One of the major catalysts in Quinnipiac’s run to the NCAA Championship last year, in which they lost for the second time in four years, Clifton’s numbers fell off significantly in his 2016-17 senior season. Clifton had amassed 43 points and a +27 rating in 39 games during his junior campaign, but followed it up this year with just 25 points and a -8 rating in the same amount of games. After having only a minor role in his first two year’s at Quinnipiac and a subpar final season, it appears that the Sharks are paying Clifton based on one season of high-end performance. Though the New Jersey native definitely has some potential, it seems likely that San Jose fans will have to wait some time to see if he develops into an NHL-caliber player.
It’s a low-risk investment for an organization that has found some recent success in the NCAA ranks. Ryan Carpenter, who has begun to carve out a role for himself in San Jose, was also an undrafted free agent who joined the Sharks out of Bowling Green State University in 2014, while rookie Danny O’Regan was skating with Boston University this time last year after being a late-round Sharks draft selection. Of course, the best college player in San Jose is none other than captain Joe Pavelski, who was a seventh-round pick of the Sharks in 2003 and played at the University of Wisconsin before becoming an NHL star. Clifton has a long way to go to be the next Pavelski, but could possibly become a Carpenter-type after a year or two in the AHL.
The Case For T.J. Oshie As This Summer’s Top Free Agent
Earlier this year, PHR put together our first draft of the 2017 unrestricted free agent class. Washington Capitals right winger T.J. Oshie finished a respectable fourth on that list, behind Joe Thornton, Alexander Radulov, and, of course, Oshie’s new teammate Kevin Shattenkirk. Those mid-season power rankings were just that, a list based on career performance and the first half of the season. Yet, free agancy often reflects “what have you done for me lately?” rather than a complete analysis of a player’s full body of work, and the second half of the season has been a windfall for Oshie. Is he now the top player on the market this summer?
After last night’s hat trick against the Tampa Bay Lightning, Oshie is now the Capitals leading goal-scorer. Yes, that’s right, Oshie leads the best team in the league in goals, not Alexander Ovechkin. The last time that any player led Washington in goal scoring at this point in the season and wasn’t Ovechkin: Robert Lang in 2003-04. Not only that, Oshie’s 49 points in 58 games makes him the most efficient scorer on the team behind Nicklas Backstrom. Oshie is sniping at a career rate in 2016-17, with a 24.2% shooting percentage, which explains his career-high in goals as well. He also has a career-best +26 rating right now, a function of the Capital’s success but also of the more careful, refined game he has shown this season.
So Oshie is having an excellent year; does that make him the top free agent? No one behind Oshie on our initial list has played significantly better, so it comes down to comparing him against Thornton, Radulov, and Shattenkirk. The first thing that should stick out between Oshie and Thornton is age. Oshie will be 30 years old at the start of the 2017-18 season, whereas Thornton will be 38. Radulov will be just 31, but has just returned to the NHL this season after a long hiatus in the KHL. Oshie and Thornton thus have him beat in terms of career consistency and dependability. If 2016-17 scoring is the main criteria, it’s a close race with Oshie at 49 points, Thornton at 48 points, and Radulov at 47 points, but Oshie has played in fewer games than the others. With an age advantage over Thornton and a consistency advantage over Radulov packaged with a scoring advantage over both, it’s fair to say that Oshie has moved into the top spot among impending free agent forwards. Making that call easier is the fact that both Thornton and Radulov are expected by many to re-sign with their current teams following the Expansion Draft in June and may not even hit the open market with Oshie on July 1st.
So that leaves Oshie vs. Shattenkirk. Especially if Washington wins their first ever Stanley Cup on the backs of these two players, both Oshie and Shattenkirk will be highly sought-after and handsomely paid on July 1st. However, can you make the case that Oshie has surpassed his new teammate in free agent value? Back in January, the PHR writers were in universal agreement that Shattenkirk was the top player available. However, when it came time for the St. Louis Blues to move him at the Trade Deadline, rumors began circulating that many teams saw Shattenkirk as a second-pair guy, were unwilling to part with top prospects and multiple high picks to acquire him, and were not planning on handing him a contract worth $7MM+ per year this summer. The Capitals ended up parting with a package that surprised many as being relatively cheap in return for the star defenseman. Shattenkirk is still the best blue liner on the market and will get his money somewhere, but no such word has come out about Oshie’s free agency prospects. It appears that teams are ready to give the skilled winger whatever he asks, as Oshie has proved time and time again that he is one of the most consistent scorers in the NHL, as well as a powerplay dyanamo and shootout specialist. The simple fact that scoring defense is always in higher demand than scoring forwards may dictate that Shattenkirk remains the top free agent this summer, but don’t be surprised to see Oshie get a similar deal to his teammate and go on to have greater success than Shattenkirk with his new team in the future.
AHL’s Rampage Sign Pair Of College Free Agents
The Colorado Avalanche need all the help they can get, and their AHL affiliate may have helped them out by bringing in a couple NCAA free agents for Joe Sakic and his staff to take a look at over the next couple of months. The San Antonio Rampage announced today that they have inked Brady Shaw and Ben Storm to amateur tryout contracts. With their respective teams out of NCAA postseason contention, the pair will now get a chance to show how they fit at the next level in an effort to secure contracts with San Antonio (or possibly even Colorado) for next season or else become free agents again in a few months.
Of the two, the defenseman Storm is likely the better pro prospect. Ironically, Storm was a sixth-round draft pick of the Avalanche in 2013, prior to their affiliation with the Rampage, but has yet to sign an entry-level team with the deal and may never. Storm was a four-year starter at St. Cloud State University, holding down the blue line as a stay-at-home defenseman. Although Storm lacks much offensive upside – just four goals and 13 assists in 121 collegiate contests – he makes up for it with solid defense and checking. The 6’7″, 229-lb. behemoth from Laurium, Michigan is always the most physical presence on the ice and skates surprisingly well for a player his size. Storm may need some time in the minor leagues to refine his puck handling and movement, but as they say “you can’t teach size”, and Storm’s stature alone should keep the 22-year-old employed in pro hockey for a while.
The forward Shaw has a more uphill battle in pursuing his NHL dreams. After an explosive sophomore season at the University of Vermont in 2014-15, during which he recorded 31 points in 38 games and showed a complete game, Shaw’s performance has dropped off in each of the past two seasons. Shaw scored just 16 points in 36 games last year and 19 points in 34 games this season, all whilst struggling with the two-way pressure of playing a larger role on the team. A former star in the British Columbia Hockey League (BCHL), Shaw was a highly-touted prospect who simply didn’t meet expectations at the college level. The 24-year-old may be able to rediscover his game in the AHL, but as of now as a lot of work to do to become more than just a replacement-level minor league player.
College Notes: Hayden, Doherty, Kelleher
Fresh off inking his entry-level contract with the Chicago Blackhawks on Sunday, former Yale center John Hayden will make his NHL debut tonight when the ‘Hawks take on the Ottawa Senators. Hayden, Chicago’s third-round pick in 2013, recorded 21 goals and 13 assists in his 2016-17 senior season. The Blackhawks clearly believe that he is ready to continue scoring, as they’ll throw him into the fire of NHL action less than a week removed from NCAA game play. Regardless of Hayden’s participation level for Chicago down the stretch and in the postseason, playing in just this one game tonight will effectively use up the first of his two-year deal, so the ‘Hawks certainly hope that his play will justify their decision.
- Hayden’s Yale teammate, winger Mike Doherty, has also joined the pro ranks, but not the NHL just yet. Doherty has reportedly agreed to a deal with the AHL’s Providence Bruins. For the Reading, Mass. native, the move gives him the chance to show his ability at the next level for the remainder of this season in hopes of earning a contract with his hometown Boston Bruins as a result. A four-year starter at Yale, Doherty is a two-way forward, capable of contributing modest offense, but in need of further development if he hopes to make it to the NHL one day. He’ll get the chance to continue that growing process in Providence, where Boston youngsters Frank Vatrano, Austin Czarnik, Peter Cehlarik, and more recently found their way.
- Another New England collegiate prospect is soon to be on his way to the big leagues as well. University of New Hampshire speedster Tyler Kelleher is expected to sign with the New Jersey Devils, who have long been rumored to be the leading suitor for his services. Prior to the 2016-17 season, Kelleher was not on many NHL radars, as his size – just 5’6″, 161 lbs. – limited his potential. However, after scoring 63 points in 40 games this year, his explosive offense is now overshadowing his miniature stature. If the Devils can find a way to work Kelleher into their lineup without his size becoming a liability, they could be the beneficiaries of one of the best offensive skill sets in all of college hockey.
Snapshots: Outdoor Game, Fedun, Bonuses
After a report yesterday that the 2018 Winter Classic would be played at Citi Field in New York, there is some more news about outdoor games next season. Tomorrow, according to a report from Bruce Garrioch of the Ottawa Citizen, the NHL will announce a game between the Ottawa Senators and Montreal Canadiens that will take place at TD Place, the home of the Canadian Football League’s Ottawa Redblacks. The stadium, which sits in Lansdowne Park right along the Rideau Canal, will host the CFL’s Grey Cup just a few weeks prior and will have expanded seating still installed.
This would be the Senators first time hosting an outdoor game, and just their second appearance in one. In 2014, they were part of the Heritage Classic in Vancouver (where the Sens won 4-2) but will obviously welcome a chance to host their own. Honoring the first NHL game played in Ottawa on December 19th, 1917—when the original Ottawa Senators were in existence—the game is expected to be played around the same date. It will be Montreal’s fourth appearance as a visitor in an outdoor game, though they’ve never hosted one themselves.
- As rumored yesterday, the Buffalo Sabres have brought up Taylor Fedun from the AHL today prior to their game in Los Angeles. The team is in the middle of a four-game rad trip, and will not have Justin Falk in the lineup tonight or tomorrow against the Anaheim Ducks. Fedun has 25 games with the NHL club this season, recording seven points. A prolific point producer at the AHL level, Fedun has just 37 games under his belt in the NHL and has never been able to find a consistent role.
- The Toronto Maple Leafs have used their cap space over the past two years as something of an asset, acquiring bad contracts and burying them in the minors in order to get better returns on transactions. Brooks Laich, Milan Michalek and Colin Greening were all examples of this, and they now find themselves right up against the cap. As Chris Johnston of Sportsnet writes, that may end up costing them at least a few million next season as the bonuses for their young players will be taken as a penalty. Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander and Nikita Zaitsev will all likely max out their Schedule A bonuses this season, and Matthew may trigger a $2MM Schedule B if he finishes in the top 10 for goals. If they decide to be big players in free agency, that Matthews bonus could be a big factor.
Snapshots: Lafreniere, Kerfoot, Sherwood
In the latest edition of Insider Trading from TSN, Bob McKenzie was asked about the possibility of any exceptional status players applying for the CHL next year. Though there aren’t any 14-year-olds applying this year, McKenzie pointed out one player, Alex Lafreniere, that is a lock for first overall at the QMJHL draft and is one to keep an eye on throughout his junior career.
Lafreniere was born in late 2001, meaning he won’t be eligible for the NHL entry draft until 2020. While that is still a long way away, the 83 points in 36 games for the Saint-Eustache midget team was an incredible feat. His talent is obvious, now we’ll see how he takes playing against kids five years older than him.
- The panel also included Darren Dreger, who relates that Alexander Kerfoot may wait out the New Jersey Devils and head to free agency. Though the Devils want to sign him when his season ends at Harvard, he’s just a few months away from becoming free to sign with whoever he wants; he’d become a UFA on August 15th. The former fifth-round pick has 40 points in 31 games this year.
- Aaron Portzline of the Columbus Dispatch gives us a note on Kiefer Sherwood from Miami University (Ohio). The undrafted center will in all likelihood head back to college for his junior year despite interest from a handful of teams. Sherwood had 38 points in 34 games this season and just saw teammate Anthony Louis graduate to a deal with Chicago.
Marc-Edouard Vlasic Wants To Stay In San Jose
After taking up four different thoughts in Elliotte Friedman’s latest column on Sportsnet, Marc-Edouard Vlasic spoke to Curtis Pashelka of The Mercury News about his desire to stay a San Jose Shark for his entire career. 
I like the team, I like the area. We’re competitive every year, and at the end of my contract next year, I’ll have been here 12 years. I guess I do like it here if I’ve been here 12 years. Yeah, if [staying in San Jose] works out, that’d be great. It’s a priority.
Vlasic’s contract is up after next season, when he’ll be 31. Earning only $4.25MM per season on his current deal, Vlasic has been one of the best bargains in the league for the Sharks. A model of consistency, Vlasic has never averaged less than 20 minutes per night for the Sharks, including his rookie season when he was just 19-years old. He draws the tough assignments night in and night out, allowing other players—namely Brent Burns—to feast on the easier matchups.
While Vlasic still will garner very few headlines, his relatively low cap-hit has allowed the Sharks to build a defense corps that is one of the best in the league. Next season when Burns’ eight-year, $64MM extension kicks in the team may need to rework their group if they have any chance of signing Vlasic long-term. Both Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau are unrestricted free agents, and may have to settle for one-year deals if they want to stay in San Jose. If Vlasic is starting a new contract in 2018-19 at the same time Tomas Hertl, Dylan DeMelo and Martin Jones all need raises, there won’t be room for the pair of 37-year olds.
It’s not many players who complete their whole career with one team, but if the Sharks do offer Vlasic a five or six year deal perhaps he will be one of them. His steady presence has been a big part of their success over the past decade, missing the playoffs just once during his tenure. If he ever did hit free agency, there would likely be 30 other teams waiting to knock on his door and bring him into the fold.
The Best Deal Of The Offseason: Brad Marchand
When you think back on any signing season, your mind immediately goes to the big deals handed out to free agents. This season saw over $600MM dollars handed out on the first day of free agency, and was followed by a lucrative summer for tons of players. Because of the lack of a superstar name—thanks Steven, you couldn’t just wait another couple of days?—second-tier all-stars were given incredibly lucrative contracts. Recently, our Zach Leach took a look back at July 1st and the mistakes teams made, handing out term and money to players who were perhaps already over the hill.
But this offseason’s best deal may not have come until much later in the summer. In fact it didn’t happen in the summer at all, but on September 26th just a few weeks before the Boston Bruins would start their season. The Bruins were getting ready for their preseason debut against the Columbus Blue Jackets—a game they would lose in a shootout—while two thirds of their top line was prepping for the World Cup of Hockey final in Toronto.
It was that morning of the 26th that Bob McKenzie of TSN would report that the Bruins had completed a contract extension with Brad Marchand that would see him stay in Boston for another eight years. He would be paid $6.125MM each season with several different clauses attached. Even though he was starring at the World Cup alongside Sidney Crosby—and would score the tournament winning goal just a few days later, shorthanded with 44 seconds left—many people thought the deal was a huge overpay. In fact, the replies to McKenzie’s tweet are mixed at best, with it being hard to understand the value Marchand brought to the Bruins.
July 1st Free Agent Frenzy Reflection
The National Football League officially opened the 2017-18 league year yesterday at 4:00pm ET, and the annual onslaught of massive free agent signings has been ongoing ever since, keeping our friends over at Pro Football Rumors pretty busy. The NHL has a similar ritual, as flurry of free agent activity is common each and every July 1st, when a new hockey season officially begins. Last summer, a handful of huge contracts were handed out on July 1st. With the season winding down, how have those players performed in their first seasons? (Hint: mostly really bad)
Signed: Seven-year, $42MM deal with the Edmonton Oilers
2016-17 stats: 66 games, 14 goals, 22 assists, 36 points, -7 rating, 134 shots, 17:13 ATOI
Of all six players who received the biggest contracts on July 1st, Lucic is the only one on a team that appears to be a lock for the postseason in 2016-17. Now, that may say more about the effectiveness of hastily giving out money to the best players on the market, but Lucic at least deserves some credit. His offensive production doesn’t quite match up with his $6MM yearly price tag, but Lucic has added the same degree of grit and toughness that made him a fan favorite and Stanley Cup champion with the Boston Bruins. Lucic is always a physical threat on the ice and can make plays through his ability to crash the net and win battles along the boards. He’s never been able to score much more than 60 points per season, with just one 30-goal campaign in his career, but he earns his money through protecting the talented players on the ice while also having the ability to skate alongside them. Lucic is also spending an abnormal amount of time not in the penalty box, with just 41 penalty minutes as opposed to a career average closer to one hundred. Lucic is spending more time on the ice, most recently with his new line of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Jordan Eberle, than he is in the box, and as long as that continues, this contract will pay off for the Edmonton Oilers.
Signed: Seven-year, $42MM deal with the Buffalo Sabres
2016-17 stats: 63 games, 19 goals, 24 assists, 43 points, -6 rating, 151 shots, 19:04 ATOI
Okposo may have been named an All-Star in his first season in Buffalo, but the Sabres were likely expecting more from their major 2016 investment. The Sabres were likely expecting more from the 2016-17 season overall, but Okposo’s lack of production doesn’t help the matter. As it stands, Okposo is on pace to have his worst scoring season since 2012-13 unless he picks up the pace over Buffalo’s final 15 games. At $6MM a year for six more seasons to come, the Sabres can only hope that Okposo hasn’t already begun his decline at just 28 years old. Okposo has looked good alongside Ryan O’Reilly for stretches this season, but there hasn’t been enough consistency. He is still a safer asset than many of the other older players on this list, but we’ll have to wait until next year to know for sure whether this was a bad call by Buffalo.
Signed: Seven-year, $38.5MM deal with the New York Islanders
2016-17 stats: 62 games, 19 goals, 6 assists, 25 points, -11 rating, 112 shots, 15:56 ATOI
The Islanders have made an impressive comeback from a dismal beginning to 2016-17, but even if they find a way into the playoffs, that won’t be enough to make them feel good about the deal they gave Ladd this summer. At just 31 years old, no one could have predicted that the veteran winger would fall off a cliff this quickly. After scoring 46 or more points in each of the past six seasons, Ladd will be lucky to reach 3o this year. His $5.5MM cap hit over six more seasons could be yet another big mistake by a team with a long history of issues with long-term contracts. John Tavares and the Islanders can only hope that 2016-17 was a fluke and that they’ll get the real Ladd next season, but don’t count on it.
Signed: Six-year, $36MM deal with the Vancouver Canucks
2016-17 stats: 65 games, 11 goals, 13 assists, 24 points, -9 rating, 132 shots, 18:41 ATOI
From bad to worse, we move from Ladd to Eriksson, who may be the worst signing of the summer at this point in time. After a stellar 63-point season with the Bruins in 2015-16, Eriksson signed a long-term deal worth $6MM annually in Vancouver, and the Canucks brass expected that his addition would keep the championship window opened a bit longer. Instead, the team has faltered and appears headed toward a rebuild. One of the main factors to this collapse has been an utter lack of production out of Eriksson. The Swedish winger supposed to put up huge numbers alongside Daniel and Henrik Sedin, but with a month to go, he has been off the top line for a while now has has less than half the points as he did at this time last year. Whether it is a poor fit or simply poor play, this signing could end up being a long-term headache for the Canucks if Eriksson can’t turn it around in 2017-18.
Signed: Six-year, $31.5MM deal with the Detroit Red Wings
2016-17 stats: 62 games, 13 goals, 17 assists, 30 points, -17 rating, 125 shots, 17:09 ATOI
Though the streak of failures was over? Not yet. Nielsen left the Islanders this summer, like Okposo, to help keep the postseason hopes of the Detroit Red Wings alive, like Eriksson in Vancouver, and like Okposo and Eriksson he has struggled. Because of this, the Red Wings’ historic playoff streak is all but snapped and they are left scratching their heads with a roster full of veterans on long-term contracts who didn’t perform up to snuff in 2016-17. Nielsen may be the worst of the bunch, as his 30 points teeters on the edge of being the worst full season of his career. Beyond just the lack of production, Nielsen’s -17 rating is atrocious, especially compared with his numbers in New York, where he was considered a good two-way center. No one on the Red Wings has exceeded expectations this season – now that Thomas Vanek has been traded – but that’s no excuse for Nielsen. He finally got the big pay day he had always wanted, but if really wants to earn that yearly $5.25MM and stay in Detroit for the remaining five years, his play will need to pick up next season.
Signed: Five-year, $30MM deal with the Boston Bruins
2016-17 stats: 59 games, 13 goals, 18 assists, 31 points, even rating, 140 shots, 17:21 ATOI
Finally we get to Backes, who despite scoring less than Okposo and not much more than the other two, can count his first season in Boston as a success. Backes has taken his fair share of criticism in 2016-17, but at the end of the day he has always been a two-way threat more than an offensive threat and has done well in that role this season. Backes’ 31 points is well behind his 45 points in St. Louis last year and 58 the year before, but the 32-year-old has also been asked to move from his old first-line center role to a top-six winger role this season, on a team that hasn’t been great at scoring goals. Despite all that, Backes may still end up with about 40 points, as he has been playing his best hockey of the year of late, now a member of the team’s top line with Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand since the Bruins’ coaching change. Like the role Lucic once played in Boston, Backes has provided a dominant physical presence wherever he has played in the lineup this season and has contributed some offense along the way. Might the Bruins regret this contract in year four or five? Possibly, but for now Backes is a good fit and will continue to be this season, postseason, and beyond.