Poll: Superstar Defensemen On The Move
Much has been made recently about the futures of five All-Star defenseman who are slated for free agency in 2019. Drew Doughty is working toward an extension with the Los Angeles Kings. Oliver Ekman-Larsson is sitting on an offer from the Arizona Coyotes. The Nashville Predators have made re-signing Ryan Ellis their priority this off-season. Ryan McDonagh was unable to bring home a Stanley Cup for the favorite Tampa Bay Lightning after a deadline blockbuster. And all of this has somehow overshadowed the potential availability of the Ottawa Senators’ Erik Karlsson.
All five of these superstar defenders could sign extensions on July 1st. Of course, they could all be dealt away even sooner. Doughty seems closest on a deal, but has strict salary demands that could end up souring one side or the other. Ekman-Larsson has always seemed loyal to the Coyotes, but is understandably concerned about the future of the team given their struggles throughout his career. Ellis too has been a loyal soldier for the Predators and an extremely underpaid one at that. He could make far more and play a far greater role elsewhere. McDonagh was acquired for the Bolts to make a title run this year and next, but beyond that point the team may not be able to afford him. Finally, Karlsson is the ultimate prize. He has expressed a desire to get fair market value on his next deal and polarizing Ottawa owner Eugene Melnyk seems unlikely to match.
So, as the off-season gets underway and these five know that their futures will be determined in the next twelve months, the question is how many re-sign and how many move on, either via trade or free agency? Which of these stars will don the same jersey in 2019-20 as they did in 2017-18?
Karlsson, Doughty, OEL, Ellis, McDonagh: How Many Re-Sign With Their Current Team?
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3 40% (365)
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2 26% (238)
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4 16% (147)
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All 9% (86)
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1 5% (48)
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None 2% (22)
Total votes: 906
Negotiation Notes: No. 2 Pick, Nelson, Simon
The Carolina Hurricanes and newly promoted GM Don Waddell are listening to offers on the second overall pick in the NHL Draft, but don’t expect them to make a move. Waddell spoke with the media at the NHL Draft Combine with week and said that if teams “want to present something to us, we’ll look at it” but, quickly added that “it’s going to be hard for us to move that pick.” After moving up nine spots in the draft lottery to #2, the Hurricanes are looking to make the most of their good luck. Although Carolina’s biggest need is a star center – something that isn’t available in this draft – they can still land a generational talent up front. Waddell stated that forwards Andrei Svechnikov, Filip Zadina, and Brady Tkachuk are the most likely candidates, but there could also be a possibility that Jesperi Kotkaniemi could slide into the spot, as the Finnish center has reportedly been flying up draft boards. Waddell did say that he was impressed with several of the top defensemen in this class, but feels the Hurricanes are well-stocked on the blue line. That is an understatement for what is one of the deepest and most talented groups in the league with promising prospects still on the way. Forward is the big need and the ‘Canes seemed prime to make the pick, but Waddell will listen if another team is ready to blow him away with an offer or present him with an intriguing reason to move back in the first round.
- Entering a crucial off-season, New York Islanders forward Brock Nelson has decided to move on from his current representation, according to The Athletic’s Arthur Staple. Nelson has hired Ben Hankinson of Octagon Sports to handle his negotiations this summer as he enters restricted free agency. As Staple points out, Nelson’s last foray as an RFA did not go smoothly. Former agent Ron Salcer struggled in his dealings with the Islanders and talks grew contentious over the 2015 off-season. Nelson ended up finally re-signing with the Isles on the eve of training camp. Although Nelson has the benefit of arbitration rights this time around, he would still prefer a more civil negotiation with New York and new addition Lou Lamoriello in his new pursuit of an extension.
- Contrary to an erroneous report, the agent for young Pittsburgh Penguins forward Dominik Simon says that his client has no immediate interest in leaving North America. Agent Allan Walsh dismissed rumors that Simon could join Lokomotiv Yaroslavl of the KHL if the Penguins did not offer the part-time winger a one-way contract extension, reports Jonathan Bombulie of the Tribune-Review. Walsh states that Simon is focused only on playing in Pittsburgh in the future and that any talk with foreign teams would be originating from the teams themselves and not the player side. Simon is an RFA this summer and at 23 scored twelve points in 33 games as a rookie and impressed at the AHL level as well. It would be no surprise to see him land a one-way contract, but Walsh makes it sound as if that won’t make a difference in where he plays next season.
Latest On Oliver Ekman-Larsson’s Future In Arizona
Recently we learned that Oliver Ekman-Larsson, who is set to become an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2019, has been given an eight-year, $66MM ($8.25MM AAV) contract extension offer by the Arizona Coyotes. The team is waiting for a decision from their superstar defenseman, though nothing can officially be signed until July 1st when Ekman-Larsson is less than a year away from free agency. Nothing stops the team and player from agreeing to terms before that date, and as hockey insider Bob McKenzie opines in his latest Bobcast for TSN, they could also potentially move to a different course of action depending on the answer.
The general sense from within the organization is they’re optimistic [he’ll re-sign]. They believe that Ekman-Larsson is more likely than not to want to stay for the next eight years in Arizona, and take the 8x$8.25MM deal. I’m not saying he’s not, only that I don’t think he’s made that final decision yet. Last I heard he was in France on a vacation—and I’m not sure if there’s a specific timeline here—but I would have to think in the next week or two, the Arizona Coyotes want to know from Ekman-Larsson and his representatives ‘is he prepared to commit to that long-term deal?’ Because if he’s not, then there’s no doubt in my mind that Arizona will try to trade him.
The fact that Ekman-Larsson hasn’t made a final decision yet isn’t surprising, as he only recently finished playing at the IIHF World Championship and has plenty of time to weigh all of his options. The interesting part though is that McKenzie believes that the Coyotes would try to trade him, presumably this summer, if they can’t get a deal. In fact, McKenzie goes on to say that he believes the team hasn’t ruled something like that out at this point:
I believe that Arizona has kept its options open in that regard. I don’t think that they’re being real proactive, picking up the phone and calling teams and saying ‘Hey do you want to trade for Ekman-Larsson?’ but I think they’re well aware of which teams are interested in Ekman-Larsson, and that there is ongoing dialogue that if a trade were to become necessary, how they would go about it. Their priority, no doubt about it, is to get Ekman-Larsson signed to that eight-year extension.
Obviously none of this is a concrete report that Ekman-Larsson will be traded, or that he will re-sign with the Coyotes in the coming weeks. He may not make a decision for months and the team could be fine waiting until part way through the season before making a final decision on his future. But the idea that Arizona would strongly consider a trade should he turn down the offer—which McKenzie believes is as high as the team is willing to go salary-wise—does add another intriguing name to the market this summer. A player like Ekman-Larsson could generate the most interest out of anyone not named John Tavares, and really change the market for a player like John Carlson who currently looks like the best puck-moving option available. Ekman-Larsson would come with just one year left on his contract, but could potentially sign an extension with any acquiring team right away.
Still, the 26-year old defenseman has never given any indication that he is frustrated with Arizona, despite the speculation that has surrounded him while the team struggles on the ice. After a relatively successful second half of the 2017-18 season, perhaps he believes the franchise is headed in the right direction with young players like Clayton Keller and Jakob Chychrun at the wheel. The team has gone out of their way to provide a support system for Ekman-Larsson has he dealt with a tough personal year, and it has never seemed like the relationship between organization and star has waned.
As we approach the NHL Entry Draft in less than three weeks, more player movement will surely arise and teams will start organizing their depth charts for the 2018-19 season. If the ball is truly in Ekman-Larsson’s court, he could drastically change the market on the draft floor by making a decision by then. Even if he takes the contract, strategies for the Coyotes and other teams could be altered, if only as another 2019 “Superclass” member drops off the table.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Snapshots: Josi, Condors, Kempny
Roman Josi couldn’t drag the Nashville Predators or Switzerland to victory this year, but it wasn’t for a lack of effort. As reported in swisshockeynews.ch today, Josi broke his hand in the IIHF World Championship semi-final game against Canada, but still suited up in the final for nearly 30 minutes of ice time. Apparently the Swiss team needed to get permission from the Predators to have him continue to play, likely meaning it’s not a serious injury for the Nashville captain.
Josi will be expected to log big minutes once again for the Predators next season as he continues to close in on the end of his current contract. The 28-year old defenseman is scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2020, meaning an extension from GM David Poile and the team just over a year from now seems like almost a sure thing. Josi will carry a cap hit of just $4MM this season and next, another one of the Predators’ mind-boggling bargains on the back end. He, Mattias Ekholm and Ryan Ellis combine for just a $10.25MM cap hit and are among the best at their position—broken hand and all.
- The Bakersfield Condors have hired Dave Manson as an assistant coach for next season, joining the Edmonton Oilers’ AHL affiliate and head coach Jay Woodcroft. Manson, former NHL player and father of Anaheim Ducks’ defenseman Josh Manson, had been coaching with the Prince Albert Raiders since his retirement in 2002. The Condors will try to get back to the playoffs next season, after finishing just 31-27-10 in 2017-18.
- Michal Kempny has been a huge part of the Washington Capitals success since coming over from the Chicago Blackhawks during the season, but even he wasn’t expecting to have such an impact. In fact, according to Frank Seravalli of TSN, Kempny was considering returning to Europe at some point as he doubted his future in the NHL. The 27-year old shouldn’t have to worry about that any longer, as he’s done enough to earn a contract offer from the Capitals at very least, and likely many more suitors on the open market should he decide to test unrestricted free agency this summer.
Free Agent Focus: New York Rangers
Free agency is now a little less than a month away from opening up and there are quite a few prominent players set to hit the open market while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign. Here is a breakdown of New York’s free agent situation.
Key Restricted Free Agents: F Vladislav Namestnikov – The Rangers have plenty of restricted free agents to sign this summer, and while Kevin Hayes and other forwards may have had a bigger impact on the team, it’s Namestnikov that remains the biggest enigma. After coming over from the Tampa Bay Lightning at the deadline as part of the Ryan McDonagh trade, Namestnikov failed to find much chemistry with his new team. The 25-year old registered just four points in 19 games down the stretch, after notching 44 in Tampa Bay (mostly alongside Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov). Those 44 had already guaranteed he would reach a career-high in points, and he had already cracked 20 goals by the end of February.
There is still some question as to where he fits into the Rangers plans though. As the team continues to try and get younger, they essentially swapped two players the same age when they sent J.T. Miller along with McDonagh to Tampa Bay. Now Namestnikov, the 27th-overall pick from 2011, will have to show that the team actually upgraded with that trade and show he can be a top-six contributor in 2018-19 and beyond. Since he’ll be turning 26 in November any long-term deal will be buying out several unrestricted free agent seasons, substantially increasing the cap hit of the overall deal. After being paid an average of just $1.94MM the last two years, Namestnikov will be looking for a substantial raise. It’s not clear if New York wants to commit long-term to a player that has had trouble producing when not playing alongside elite linemates.
D Brady Skjei – If Namestnikov is the most unclear decision on the team’s RFA list, Skjei might be the most important. The 24-year old turned into one of the team’s most reliable defensemen in the second half of 2016-17, and showed again that he could be a big time contributor this season. Though his point production dropped significantly, Skjei was asked to log more than 21 minutes a night for a team whose defensive unit was constantly in flux. McDonagh was traded midseason, Kevin Shattenkirk dealt with injury and Brendan Smith was banished to the minor leagues, leaving Skjei the lone defender who could be counted on all season.
Skjei is coming off his entry-level contract later than many other impact players, meaning that he’s closer to unrestricted free agency than many would be heading into their second deal. It’s clear that he is a player to build around for the Rangers, and signing him long-term right now is the only way to really keep his cap hit to a reasonable amount. If the team (or player, for that matter) decides to mitigate risk and sign a short-term bridge deal, it could end up costing them in the long run if Skjei continues to improve and looks for a big-money extension when he’s 26 or 27.
Other RFAs: F Ryan Spooner, F Kevin Hayes, F Jimmy Vesey, D Rob O’Gara, D John Gilmour, G Marek Mazanec, F Steven Fogarty, F Boo Nieves, F Chris Bigras, F Adam Tambellini
Key Unrestricted Free Agent: G Ondrej Pavelec – The Rangers sold hard at the deadline to rid themselves of nearly all valuable unrestricted free agents, leaving Pavelec as the last remaining big ticket. The team does have other potential internal options as a backup for Henrik Lundqvist, but there’s not much to complain about with their situation this year. Pavelec recorded a .910 save percentage in 19 games, and though his record was poor that’s more a reflection on the team in front of him than his performance. The former Winnipeg Jets goaltender signed for just $1.3MM this season, and could likely be brought back for a similar amount in 2018-19.
Otherwise, Pavelec would likely have several suitors around the league as a reasonably priced backup with plenty of experience. The 30-year old goaltender has played 398 games in the NHL, and could come in as a 20-game backup for one of the more established goaltenders in the league. There is also always a chance he could return to the Czech Republic as a starter, though it’s been more than a decade since he played there full-time.
Other UFAs: F Paul Carey, F Cody McLeod, D Ryan Sproul, F Daniel Catenacci, F John Albert
Projected Cap Space: The Rangers currently project to have somewhere around $30MM in cap space to spend this summer, but a lot of that will be eaten up by the group of RFAs requiring new contracts. If every one of Skjei, Spooner, Hayes, Vesey and Namestnikov are signed, the team could be looking at a lot less room to operate with for the rest of the summer. The idea that they’ll just re-sign what they have and go into next season with the same group seems foolish, especially with young players like Filip Chytil and Lias Andersson knocking down the door.
With three first-round picks and plenty of young prospects starting to fill the cupboards, it wouldn’t be surprising if New York was one of the most active teams this offseason. Either continuing to trade experience for youth and building towards a window of contention in a few years, or reloading to get back to the playoffs in the short-term, the Rangers are a team to watch closely as the draft approaches in a few weeks.
Playoff Notes: Theodore, Lineup Changes, Orpik, Smith-Pelly, Beagle
Vegas Golden Knights head coach Gerard Gallant showed why he is considered to be a players’ coach when he was asked Sunday about the performance of 22-year-old Shea Theodore, according to the Associated Press’ Stephen Whyno. The young blueliner has struggled mightily in the Stanley Cup Finals, having been on the ice for four of the team’s past six goals. In Game 3 alone, he made a questionable decision that created an odd-man rush on Evgeny Kuznetsov‘s goal and then followed that up with a bad turnover that allowed Devante Smith-Pelly to score the goal that sealed the win.
Regardless, despite forcing the youngster to skip one shift, the veteran coach defended his player.
“Did Shea do something real bad? He plays the game like everybody else,” Gallant said Sunday in a passionate defense of Theodore. “He made a couple mistakes, they ended up in the back of our net. A lot of guys make mistakes in hockey games and they don’t end up in the back of the net. Shea’s a 22-year-old kid who I love. He’s a great player. He’s going to be a star in this league.”
Theodore is expected to continue playing next to Deryk Engelland in Game 4. Whyno said that Engelland reassured Theodore and told him to simplify his game.
- Gallant also said the team might make some lineup changes for Game 4 on Monday. There is lots of speculation the team may bring back wingers William Carrier and Tomas Tatar, who both have played sporadically throughout the playoffs for Vegas. There is also talk the team might shuffle some of their middle lines. The team’s second line of Erik Haula, James Neal and David Perron has struggled in the Stanley Cup Finals. In three games, they have gone for a combined one goal, two assists, 10 shots on goal, 14 shots missed or blocked and a minus-9 rating. NHL Network’s Brian Lawton reports that the team could promote Alex Tuch to the second line in order to change things up.
- Despite rumors that he suffered a concussion on a reverse hit from Neal, Washington Capitals defenseman Brooks Orpik had the wind knocked out of him, according to Whyno. The veteran defenseman said a concussion was never the issue as he couldn’t breathe initially after the hit. He is expected to be ready for Monday’s Game 4. Orpik was never checked for a concussion and the Washington Post’s Adam Kilgore writes that the NHL failed once again to show the world that they are on top of handling concussions as Orpik was allowed to return immediately on the next shift.
- Two key contributors for the Capitals in Game 3 were Smith-Pelly, who scored the insurance goal, and Jay Beagle who assisted on two goals as well as had a 61 percent face-off success rate was another key factor for the Capitals. Both will be unrestricted free agents and with the Capitals spending much of their time focused on John Carlson‘s upcoming free agency and their lack of salary cap space, one has to wonder whether both Smith-Pelly and Beagle’s strong play might force the team to allow them to leave this offseason.
Free Agent Focus: Vancouver Canucks
Free agency is now a little more than a month away from opening up and there are quite a few prominent players set to hit the open market while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign. Here is a breakdown of Vancouver’s free agent situation.
Key Restricted Free Agent: F Sven Baertschi — 
Considered to be a player who could break out at any time, the 25-year-old restricted free agent never has had the opportunity as injuries have derailed any true success so far. Having already played in parts of seven seasons and three complete seasons, Baertschi has never played a full season or even close to that much (his season high is 69 games back in 2015-16). This past year, the winger only got into 53 games as he dealt with a jaw injury in December after being hit in the face with a puck and then separated his shoulder in March that ended his season. With 14 goals and 29 points, Baertschi has the potential to contribute to a young team if he can stay healthy.
While the team will likely find a way to ink him to a one-year extension (he made $1.85MM each of the last two years), the team must also determine if he’s a core player who will be a major contributor on his team in the future. Another injury prone year could force the team to move on from him if he can’t prove that he can stay on the ice.
Other RFA’s: F Reid Boucher, F Cole Cassels, D Anton Cederholm, F Michael Chaput, F Markus Granlund, F Griffen Molino, D Derrick Pouliot, D Troy Stecher, D Mackenze Stewart, F Jake Virtanen.
Key Unrestricted Free Agent: F Darren Archibald — Archibald’s name suggests that the team has little to worry about when it comes to their own free agents. With just three NHL-level unrestricted free agents, Archibald’s value stands out. The 6-foot-3, 210-pound wing provides the team with grit, solid skating and physicality and has started to step up for Vancouver this season. A long-time AHL player, Archibald got into 27 games for the Canucks this season, putting up four goals and nine points and was a favorite of coach Travis Green and might be a cheap fourth-line option for Vancouver (he made $650K last season) rather than the franchise go out and sign a veteran for that spot.
Other UFA’s: G Richard Bachman, F Nic Dowd, F Jussi Jokinen, F Joseph Labate, F Jayson Megna, D Patrick Wiercioch.
Projected Cap Space: The team should have plenty of cap space if the team is ready to spend after the retirements of Henrik Sedin and Daniel Sedin. They have a little less than $53MM committed to players for the 2018-19 season and few contracts of their own that they have to deal with. The team could attempt to add a few veterans to mesh with their young core of Bo Horvat, Brock Boeser and Elias Pettersson and must focus more of their attention on their defense, but they do have plenty of space to do that.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Doughty, Kings Progressing On An Extension
As is always the case, a much-anticipated free agent market loses many top names before it actually opens. As it currently stands, the talent level and depth of the potential 2019 class makes it one of the best the NHL has ever (hypothetically) seen. However, each player in that class can sign an extension beginning on July 1st of this year and has an entire calendar year before they become available. In that time, this epic free agent group could shrink considerably.
One of the top names already seems destined to be removed from the market. For a time, it was believed that Los Angeles Kings defenseman Drew Doughty may test the open waters of free agency and could even be the final piece of the championship puzzle for his hometown Toronto Maple Leafs. However, Doughty has made it clear in recent months that his preference is to remain in L.A. Now, Sportsnet insider Nick Kypreos reports that the two sides are already closing in on an agreement to make that happen. Given that an extension offer cannot even officially be made for another month, this early progress seems to indicate that this deal will get done.
According to Kypreos, the 28-year-old Norris Trophy-winning defender will get a significant raise in his next contract over what is already a considerable cap hit at $7MM. Doughty has gone on the record as saying that he would like to be paid more than Nashville Predators blue liner P.K. Subban, who is currently the highest-paid defenseman in the league at $9MM AAV. Kypreos estimates that Doughty will land somewhere in the $10.5-11MM per year range on a long-term deal, which would make him the new top dog among defenseman – until Erik Karlsson hits the market. While it may seem overwhelming that the Kings would have two players, captain Anze Kopitar being the other, making $10MM+, a rising salary cap would make it much less of a burden than it has been on the only other team in that scenario, the Chicago Blackhawks. L.A. would have two of the league’s best players locked up long-term and would not be as strapped for space to build around them in pursuit of more championships for one the best teams in this century.
Oilers Re-Sign Defenseman Keegan Lowe
The Edmonton Oilers risked losing 25-year-old defender Keegan Lowe this off-season, but have worked quickly to rectify the situation. CapFriendly reports that the Oilers have signed Lowe to a two-year extension. It is a two-way deal that pays the veteran defenseman $650K/$150K in year one and $700K/$225K in year two (NHL/AHL).
While it is relatively uncommon for a player of Lowe’s age to reach unrestricted free agency, the 2011 third-round pick had achieved Group 6 free agent status as a 25-year-old with more than three pro seasons under his belt but less than 80 NHL games played. It was this same situation that allowed Lowe to sign with Edmonton in the first place last off-season. Lowe would have again been free to sign with any team in the league on July 1st.
Instead, the son of former Oilers star defenseman Kevin Lowe will remain in the city where his father made his mark and where he himself played his junior hockey with the WHL’s Edmonton Oil Kings. Lowe was originally drafted by the Carolina Hurricanes and even played in two games with the team as a second-year pro, but was unable to work his way into a regular role in Raleigh. He was traded to the Montreal Canadiens in 2017 before signing with the Oilers last summer. Lowe got back into the NHL last year with a pair of games, but will most likely continue to serve as an AHL mentor and emergency depth option. This extension simply affords him security and the ability to continue playing for an organization with close ties to his family. For a reliable and high-character albeit low-ceiling player like Lowe, that is often enough.
Free Agent Focus: Detroit Red Wings
Free agency is now a little more than a month away from opening up and there are quite a few prominent players set to hit the open market while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign. Here is a breakdown of Detroit’s free agent situation.
Key Restricted Free Agent: F Dylan Larkin — After a great start in his rookie year, there were a lot of questions after he struggled in his sophomore campaign when he put up just 32 points. However, the 21-year-old center brushed away any doubts this year, putting up 16 goals and a team-leading 63 points. With a team full of veterans, the Red Wings must begin to depend more and more on Larkin, who is developing into the franchise player they need to center one of their top lines. Add in a recent appearance at the IIHF World Championships where he helped Team USA win a bronze medal and he’s the key to Detroit’s rebuild.
Now coming off his entry-level deal, Larkin is in line for a significant raise from the $1.43MM deal he’s been on for the past three years. Not arbitration eligible, however, the negotiations might get ugly like the one that Andreas Athanasiou dealt with last year, especially with multiple quality players who will be restricted free agents this summer.
Other RFA’s: F Athanasiou, F Tyler Bertuzzi, F Martin Frk, F Matej Machovsky, F Anthony Mantha, F Zach Nastasiuk, F Matt Puempel, D Daniel Renouf.
Key Unrestricted Free Agent: D Mike Green — On a positive note, the team doesn’t have any pressing unrestricted free agents. While Green is quite an offensive defenseman, he’s also 32 years old and not necessarily in the team’s long-term plans. The team’s original plan was to trade the veteran blueliner to a playoff contender at the trade deadline and had hoped that he would provide the team with a big haul of picks and/or prospects. Instead, Green got hurt and missed the two weeks prior to the trade deadline and weren’t able to move Green.
While there has been some talk of bringing him back on a short-term deal, he might be able to get a bigger deal elsewhere, but considering defense is one of the team’s biggest weaknesses and not a lot of defensive prospects there to take his place, a reunion is certainly possible.
Other UFA’s: F David Booth, G Jared Coreau, F Turner Elson, F Matt Lorito, G Tom McCollum, F Ben Street, F Eric Tangradi.
Projected Cap Space: With all the bloated veteran contracts the Red Wings have on the books, cap space is something the team has had little of over the past few years. The team did get the contracts of Green, Tomas Tatar, and Petr Mrazek off the books to free up a little room, but they will likely need all of that to re-sign Larkin, Athanasiou, Mantha and Bertuzzi. While general manager Ken Holland says he doesn’t intend to sign any major free agents to long-term deals this summer, he did say he would look at players with shorter term deals, but in the end, the team hopes to bring in some of their youth to fill in the gaps this year.