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Poll: Who Will Win The Stanley Cup Final?

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After a pair of conference championship-clinching games over the weekend, the 2024 Stanley Cup Final is set. The Oilers will play the Panthers in Sunrise, Florida, for Game 1 on Saturday night.

The storyline for Florida is clear – avenge last season’s defeat. Unlike last year, when they upset their way to the Final to meet with the Golden Knights, the Panthers have home-ice advantage after a 110-point regular season and an Atlantic Division title.

They’ve brought a deeper roster back to the dance compared to last year’s squad, but perhaps more importantly, they’ve brought a healthier contingent (for now). Top-four stalwarts Aaron Ekblad and Brandon Montour played through shoulder injuries for most of last year’s playoffs (as well as a foot injury for Ekblad), but there’s no indication any key players are playing through major ailments this time around.

Florida also comes back with the knowledge of what not to do. Last year’s series against Vegas wasn’t particularly close – they were outscored 26-12 in a five-game loss and allowed five or more goals in all three road games. That’ll be an important learning experience as they try to overcome their existing 1-8 franchise record in Stanley Cup Final games, including a sweep at the hands of the Avalanche in 1996.

For the second year in a row, Matthew Tkachuk leads the Cats in playoff scoring. He hasn’t scored goals at the torrid pace he did in 2023, but his 14 assists and 19 points in 17 games are the most on the team. Aleksander Barkov and Carter Verhaeghe are also producing at a point per game through 17 contests, and top pending unrestricted free agent Sam Reinhart is second on the team in goals behind Verhaeghe with eight.

And while he hasn’t been quite as dominant as last year’s Cinderella run, future Hall of Fame candidate Sergei Bobrovsky gives Florida an unquestionable advantage between the pipes. The two-time Vezina Trophy winner is again putting together an above-average postseason showing for the Cats, logging a .908 SV%, 2.20 GAA, and one shutout with a 12-5 record. He’s been the only goalie to take the ice for the Panthers through three rounds and has stopped 1.3 goals above average, continuing to undo the narrative created by his past postseason collapses with the Blue Jackets and Flyers.

Oilers netminder Stuart Skinner is coming off the best game of his life, stopping 34 of 35 shots last night in Edmonton to send his team to their first Final in 18 years, but is that enough to give him the benefit of the doubt? He’s certainly entering the championship series on a hot streak, putting up a .923 SV% in six games against the Stars, but his numbers on the whole this postseason (.897 SV%, -3.1 GSAA) are still inferior.

As they did against Dallas, the Oilers will need their generational stars to erase their major depth-scoring disadvantage. Their big three of Evan Bouchard, Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid are truly putting together the runs of legends, with Bouchard’s 27 points and +14 rating in 18 games from the blue line likely putting him in the Conn Smythe conversation.

Like in the regular season, McDavid isn’t scoring goals at a breakneck pace, but his raucous 26 assists in 18 games give him 31 points and the league lead in playoff scoring. That’s not to discount his ability to put the puck in the net, which he universally reminded everyone of with a highlight-reel goal to open the scoring in last night’s Game 6 win (video link).

So, with the matchups set and the entire week to file your official predictions away, who do you think will finish the season with the Stanley Cup lifted over their heads? Tell us in the poll below, and discuss in the comments.

Mobile users, click here to vote!

Featured images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Afternoon Notes: Jeannot, Parekh, Bourque

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Winger Tanner Jeannot is once again facing trade rumors, as the Tampa Bay Lightning look to clear enough cap space for a serviceable off-season. The team is facing the loss of their franchise player Steven Stamkos with just $5MM in cap space – not nearly enough to afford the services of the future Hall-of-Famer. That could push them to try and move Jeannot’s $2.665MM cap hit, though Eduardo A. Encina of the Tampa Bay Times shares that there’s been no legitimate discussions of a move just yet. Though Encina did speak to the idea being a tantalizing one for the Lightning, with many teams around the league still interested in acquiring Jeannot.

The Lightning acquired Jeannot from the Nashville Predators ahead of the 2023 Trade Deadline, sending the Music City defenseman Callan Foote, the picks that turned into Dylan MacKinnon (2023 third-round, 83rd-overall), Jayson Shaugabay (2023 fourth-round, 115th-overall), and Kevin Bicker (2023 fifth-round, 147th-overall), as well as a second-round pick in 2024 and a first-round pick in 2025 in return. Nashville traded the Shaugabay pick back to Tampa four months later, in exchange for a 2024 fourth-round pick, and moved the Bicker pick to the Detroit Red Wings to move up in the 2023 second-round.

Jeannot scored just four points in his 20 games with Tampa after the trade, though that didn’t dissuade their faith in him, with the Lightning signing Jenanot to a two-year, $5.3MM contract last summer – a deal that avoided the arbitration hearing Jeannot filed for. The rough-and-tumble winger wasn’t able to rekindle his spark on the new deal, though, scoring just 14 points in 55 games this season. He added 75 penalty minutes and a -10 – and tallied just one assist in four postseason games.

There’s still reported interest in Jeannot around the league despite his lacking scoring. Teams like the Calgary Flames have been looped into trade rumors, though Encina emphasized that a trade isn’t likely Plan A. Tampa will need to get a hefty return in any Jeannot trade, if only to hedge their losses from a costly 2023 move.

Other notes from around the league:

  • Saginaw Spirit defenseman Zayne Parekh has won the CHL’s Defenseman of the Year Award, beating out Memorial Cup Finals competition Sam Dickinson. Parekh was dazzling this season, posting a position-leading 33 goals and 96 points in just 66 games this season. He’s just the second OHL defenseman to top 95 points since 2000, joining Ryan Ellis’ 100-point season in 2010-11. But while Ellis was already an NHL draftee, Parekh is headed into his first year of eligibility in the 2024 NHL Draft. He’s seen as one of the top defensemen in the class and should rival a top 10 selection.
  • The Dallas Stars are swapping talented young forwards, with Ty Dellandrea stepping out of the Game 6 lineup in favor of Mavrik Bourque, shares Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman (Twitter link). Bourque won the AHL’s ‘Les Cunningham’ MVP Award this season after posting 26 goals and 77 points in 71 games this season. Bourque formed a dynamic duo with Stars standout Logan Stankoven in the first half of the season. Dallas will look to use that pairing as their X-factor, as they face elimination at the hands of the Edmonton Oilers.

Oilers Hire Kalle Larson Into Senior Development Role

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  • The Edmonton Oilers have hired Kalle Larsson as their ‘Senior Director of Player Development’. He will be responsible for overseeing and managing the development of Oilers’ prospects. Larsson moves to the NHL after spending 11 years with the USHL’s Dubuque Fighting Saints, where he served as both general manager and President of Hockey Operations at various points. Larson built Dubuque into one of the league’s most consistently successful lineups, including supporting them to a championship appearance this season – though Dubuque lost to the nearly flawless Fargo Force, who finished the regular season with just 10 regulation losses. Larsson will now move into the NHL, once again focused on developing young players into playoff-winning talents.

Oilers Extend ECHL Partnership

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  • The Edmonton Oilers have extended their ECHL affiliate with the Fort Wayne Komets according to an announcement from the organization. The partnership between the two teams began just before the 2022-23 season, and Assistant General Manager Keith Gretzky was quoted as saying, “Our players have also relished their time in the city of Fort Wayne. They have received first-class treatment during their time there and we truly believe that the Komets and their fans make them the premier organization in the ECHL“. In the two years as Edmonton’s ECHL affiliate, the Komets have won 69 games in total, qualifying for the Kelly Cup playoffs during the 2022-23 ECHL season.

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Oilers’ Troy Stecher Out For Season With Ankle Injury, Requires Surgery

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While Oilers defenseman Troy Stecher hasn’t played in the postseason, it was widely assumed he’s been a healthy scratch. That isn’t the case, as Jason Gregor of Sports 1440 reports he’s out with an ankle injury and will require offseason surgery.

Stecher, 30, has sparingly practiced with the team since last dressing in their regular-season finale against the Avalanche over a month ago. The Oilers downgraded from a fourth-round pick to a seventh-round pick in this year’s draft to acquire him from the Coyotes at the trade deadline for added injury insurance on the blue line.

Unfortunately, he won’t get a chance to play in his first playoff contest since 2022 with the Kings. The Vancouver-area native had two assists and a +4 rating in seven games with Edmonton after the trade while averaging 16 minutes per game, proving he would have been a reliable option to insert into the playoff lineup if necessary.

It’s not good timing for offseason surgery for Stecher, who’s a pending unrestricted free agent after completing the $1.1MM deal he signed last summer. If he’s able to land another NHL deal and build on his 494-game career, he likely won’t sign until closer to training camps after rehabbing from his procedure – unless the Oilers opt to bring him back next season and re-sign him before July 1.

Stecher’s absence leaves 22-year-old Philip Broberg as the top option to enter the lineup if Edmonton loses a defenseman to injury or suspension. The 6’3″, 200-lb Swede was the eighth overall pick in 2019 and spent most of the season on assignment to AHL Bakersfield, where he excelled with 38 points and a +11 rating in 49 contests. He’s made 10 postseason appearances for the Oilers across their 2022 and 2023 runs but averaged just 6:31 per game.

Adam Henrique Expected To Return For Game 3

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Jason Gregor of Daily Faceoff is reporting that Edmonton Oilers forward Adam Henrique will return for Game 3 tonight from a suspected ankle injury when the Oilers take on the Dallas Stars. The 34-year-old has missed eight straight games and hasn’t played since Game 1 against the Vancouver Canucks back on May 10th.

Henrique was acquired from the Anaheim Ducks (with 50% retained salary) at the trade deadline along with Sam Carrick in exchange for a first-round pick in 2024 and a conditional fifth-round pick in 2025. The Tampa Bay Lightning were also involved in the trade retaining 25% of Henrique’s cap hit and sending a seventh-round draft pick in 2024 as well as netminder Ty Taylor back to the Oilers in exchange for a conditional fourth-round pick in 2026.

If the Oilers get Henrique back into the lineup it will allow the team to shift some of their depth forwards into more suitable roles as Ryan McLeod could shift over to the wing and Derek Ryan could fall back to the fourth line.

Henrique hasn’t matched his offensive numbers from earlier in the season with Anaheim but isn’t playing in the same offensive capacity and has seen his average ice-time drop by almost three minutes per game. It’s fair to wonder if his injury was a nagging issue since he hasn’t been nearly as effective in the playoffs as he has just a goal and an assist in six games, both of which came in the first game of the playoffs. Henrique has also seen his CF% drop five percent lower than it was in the regular season.

Oilers Notes: Henrique, Lineup Changes, Perry

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The Edmonton Oilers may be without center Adam Henrique for an eighth straight game which means they could be limited in their ability to change up their third-line on offense. Earlier today, Mark Lazerus of The Athletic reported that Henrique is “very close” and could return in either Game 3 or Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals.

It is becoming more dire by the day for Edmonton to get Henrique back into the lineup even though the Oilers find themselves in a tied series against the Dallas Stars. Throughout the playoffs, Edmonton’s third line of Warren Foegele, Derek Ryan, and Ryan McLeod has combined for four points while producing a rating of -17 between the trio. The line has not aided the Oilers’ ability to win games up to this point even though it boasts one of the best combinations of foot speed.

Getting Henrique back into the lineup would allow Edmonton to bump McLeod to the wing and move Ryan down the fourth line which should balance the offense. Before succumbing to an undisclosed injury, Henrique scored six goals and nine points in 22 games for the Oilers after being acquired at the trade deadline and put up another two points in six postseason contests.

Other Oilers notes:

  • Outside of getting Henrique back into the lineup, Caleb Kerney of The Hockey News wrote this morning that Edmonton should consider making a few other tweaks. Kerney argues that if Henrique cannot return in time for Game 3, the Oilers should move depth forward Sam Gagner into the fourth-line center position instead of Sam Carrick. Despite Carrick sporting better defensive awareness than Gagner, the former’s speed and creativity may give Edmonton’s offense a much-needed jolt.
  • Off the ice, PuckPedia confirmed this morning that if the Oilers win the Conference Finals against the Stars, they will need to pay Corey Perry a $50K performance bonus. Since Perry has already played at least 50% of Edmonton’s potential games through the first three rounds of the playoffs, Perry has already hit the first qualifier for the bonus. If the Oilers end up having to pay the bonus to Perry, they will add on to an already league-leading overage penalty for next season at $3.55MM.

Adam Henrique Misses A Seventh Straight Game With Injury

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  • Edmonton Oilers forward Adam Henrique sat out of Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals after being named a game-time decision and taking warmups with the team, shares Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman (Twitter link). Henrique has now missed Edmonton’s last seven games with an ankle injury. He continues to be replaced by Sam Carrick and Connor Brown, the latter scoring Edmonton’s first goal of Game 2. Henrique appears to be nearing a return to the lineup, though it’s becoming less clear who will step out to make way.

Evening Notes: Pospisil, Henrique, Hintz

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Calgary Flames general manager Craig Conroy shared that winger Martin Pospisil’s shoulder injury isn’t a long-term concern during the Flames Talk segment of Sportsnet 960 The Fan. Pospisil sustained the injury in Team Slovakia’s May 21st matchup against Team Sweden – Slovakia’s final game of the group stage. He’d miss the team’s quarter-finals matchup against Team Canada, a game that’d end in a 6-3 Canada victory and Slovakia’s elimination form the World Championship.

Pospisil was a force to be reckoned with during Worlds, posting three goals and seven points across seven tournament games. He added six penalty minutes – though that’s certainly not representative of the fast and heavy physical presence Pospisil brought to the tourney. It was his first time skating with Slovakia’s men’s team, after representing the team at the 2019 World Juniors and 2017 World U-18 Championships.

The World Championship was a continuation of Pospisil’s breakout season. He made his NHL debut and earned a defiant role on the Calgary Flames this season, recording 24 points and 109 penalty minutes through 63 games. It was just his third season in North American pros, having spent the last two years with Calgary’s AHL affiliate. Pospisil posted 35 points and 119 penalty minutes in 67 AHL games prior to this season – adding six points in six games with the Calgary Wranglers this year. With this injury not expected to linger beyond this summer, Pospisil should be set up to engrain his spot on the Flames lineup even more adamantly next season.

Other notes from around the league:

  • Edmonton Oilers head coach Kris Knoblauch described forward Adam Henrique as “98 per cent” to Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman (Twitter link). Knoblauch added that it will be a bit more time before Henrique is fully ready to go, leaving his availability for the Western Conference Finals Game 2 up in the air. Henrique has missed Edmonton’s last six games with an ankle injury. He’s posted 11 points in 28 combined games with the Oilers since joining them at the Trade Deadline. With ample veteran experience, Henrique should be set to return to the lineup as soon as he’s ready – likely bumping Sam Carrick or Connor Brown out of a spot.
  • The Dallas Stars head coach Pete DeBoer described centerman Roope Hintz (upper-body) as a possibility for Game 2, per Lia Assimakopoulos of the Dallas News (Twitter link). Hintz joined the Stars practice on Friday, his first appearance since being injured in Game 4 of Dallas’ series against the Colorado Avalanche. Hintz will step immediately back into a top-six role when he’s ready to return, likely bumping Radek Faksa out of the lineup and returning a 65-point scorer to Dallas’ lineup amidst a tough Western Conference Finals matchup.

Seth Griffith Signs Two-Year AHL Contract With Bakersfield

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Veteran winger Seth Griffith has long been a productive scorer in the minors which made him highly sought after in free agency which has allowed him to land sizable guaranteed salaries even on a two-way deal.  However, that won’t be a concern this time around as AHL Bakersfield announced that they’ve signed the pending UFA to a two-year AHL agreement.

The 31-year-old had been on an NHL contract with the Oilers for each of the last four seasons.  However, that didn’t result in much action at the top level as Griffith played just once for Edmonton back in 2020-21 after making 79 appearances with four different teams over the previous six years.

Accordingly, rather than look for a two-way offer somewhere without much hope of seeing NHL action, Griffith is sticking around where he’s comfortable while giving Edmonton some extra flexibility on the contract front as they won’t have to have him count against their 50-contract limit.  Of course, Griffith will technically remain an NHL free agent and could sign elsewhere but an agreement like this makes that outcome unlike.  The Oilers will be able to convert him to an NHL deal down the road if they so desire.

This season, Griffith was one of the top point producers in the AHL once again, tallying 15 goals and 48 assists in 68 games for the Condors to lead his team in scoring for the sixth time in his career.  He has 572 points in 619 regular season games at that level and will be adding to those totals for a little while longer.

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