Free Agent Focus: Buffalo Sabres

Free agency is just over a month away, and teams are looking ahead to when it opens. Even with the UFA crop being thinned out in recent months, there will be some quality veterans set to hit the open market in July, while many teams also have key restricted free agents to re-sign. We continue our look around the NHL with an overview of the free agent situation for the Sabres.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Zach Benson – A feisty winger who already has 211 games under his belt having just turned 21, Benson’s imprints were all over Buffalo’s playoff run, tying for team lead with five goals in 13 games and nine points overall. The former 13th overall pick took another step ahead with 43 points in 65 games, getting real top line usage with the stakes at their highest this spring. Having other business to tend to, there’s a possibility of a bridge deal somewhere under $5MM, but if Buffalo is serious about locking things up now, Benson would command closer to $7MM on a contract which would shoot him right up among Tage Thompson and Joshua Norris as the club’s biggest ticket forwards. Such a commitment would have implications on their unrestricted free agent strategy, outlined below, but the sooner Benson is taken care of, the better. GM Jarmo Kekäläinen already referred to him as a “core piece” who they’re looking to reward with a long term deal.

F Peyton Krebs – Acquired as a prospect with higher end potential, Krebs is now 25, a valuable role player to the team but with questions on his long term future in Buffalo. The former Golden Knights first-round pick set a career high with 39 points, reaping the benefits of a top six role at times due to injuries, part of his campaign filling a variety of roles. Still, Krebs was scoreless in the Montreal series, not the only former Golden Knight to do that. Likely to command a contract at least doubling his current $1.45MM AAV, the Sabres will have to make some difficult decisions with cap constraints, and it makes one wonder if Krebs could emerge in trade talks. If Kekäläinen retains both him and Benson, they’d need to prepare for their second leading goal scorer to walk away, a name who comes up shortly. 

D Michael Kesselring – Battling injuries throughout the campaign, the 6’5″ defender skated in just 34 games, a step down from all 82 with Utah last season. He also was unable to contribute offensively, posting just two helpers, versus 29 points put up in the Mammoth’s inaugural season. A key piece in the JJ Peterka trade, the 26-year-old struggled to find a role with the Sabres with ice time cut down over four minutes, despite being a righty, a natural fit into their lineup. While dealing Krebs would be an unfortunate result of the numbers game, Kesselring makes more sense to land on the block, both based on cap limitations and on-ice contribution. Plenty of teams would have interest in the South Carolina native, eyeing a return to his production with the Mammoth organization. Either way, a short-term agreement hovering around the $2.75MM range is realistic.

Other RFAs: D Zachary Jones, F Olivier Nadeau, D Isaac Belliveau, D Nikita Novikov

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

F Alex Tuch – Widely thought to be the best forward to hit the market, Tuch remains standing in a free agent class which has gotten thinner with each passing month. After five seasons with Buffalo, three of which he surpassed the 30-goal mark, the winger went cold in the Montreal series failing to record a point. Not the ending he wanted after helping lead the Sabres to new heights, it’s Buffalo who may be more hesitant to fork over a king’s ransom to keep him, as opposed to undeterred suitors who’d have no problem offering a long-term deal with an AAV around $10MM. Expected to circle back in the coming weeks before July rolls around, there’s reason for a resolution, as a Syracuse native who grew up a fan of the team. Yet needing to lock up Benson, the Sabres would have to shed a salary such as Jordan Greenway‘s $4MM. Even then, it wouldn’t be surprising if Tuch’s value in a deserted free agent class is just too much, leaving him with ample options for a huge payday.

D Logan Stanley – A lefty whose on-ice play is sometimes not so kind from the eye test, the Sabres surrendered meaningful assets to acquire Stanley due to his frame at 6’7″, 231 lbs, and mean streak, which are coveted in today’s game. As the 28-year-old former first-round selection enters free agency, that will continue to be the case. Starting 65% of his work in the defensive zone as a Sabre, far ahead from anything he saw in Winnipeg, Stanley came away with an impressive 51.3% corsi for at five-on-five. Having a glut of left-handers on the back end, naturally there’s questions on his fit, but that didn’t stop Buffalo from seeking him out at the trade deadline. Projected by AFP Analytics to fetch a two year contract worth just under $3MM per season, Buffalo could feasibly bring him back to fill a need physically, but Stanley’s steady play in the postseason would reward him on the open market, predictably more than the Sabres have to offer.

D Luke Schenn – The second piece coming back in the Winnipeg deal, Schenn’s on-ice contributions in Buffalo were minimal, making just four appearances closing out the regular season, and two more in the playoffs, where he averaged 7:33 of ice time against Montreal. At this point the 36-year-old is largely valued for leadership. As a veteran of 10 NHL clubs to this point, he’s no stranger to moving around in the off-season either. Any future for Schenn would be as a continued seventh defenseman on a one-year contract around $1MM. However, with Zach Metsa in the fold, along with Conor Timmins who especially makes him redundant, the Saskatchewan native will likely be searching for a new home to put the finishing touches on a career which has spanned over 1,100 games and two Stanley Cups.

F Beck Malenstyn – Acquired for a second round pick from Washington two years ago, the winger is the exact type of player whose work ethic has helped Buffalo turn the corner. A relentless forechecker and penalty killer, Malenstyn played in all but one regular season game, recording 14 points. He was a constant presence in the playoffs also, skating in all 13 games and scoring a goal to help give the Sabres a 3-1 series lead over Boston. During the Montreal series, the British Columbia native caught a skate to the hand on the penalty kill, but still cleared the zone and finished his shift while wounded. Many teams would love to staple the 28-year-old to their fourth line, so the Sabres should be prepared to offer at least a $1 million raise from his current $1.35MM cap hit. Assuming at least one of their acquisitions from Winnipeg above are not brought back, there should be no issue in affording such an offer.

Other UFAs: F Joshua Dunne, F Tanner Pearson, F Jake Leschyshyn, D Gavin Bayreuther, F Trevor Kuntar (Group 6)

Projected Cap Space

The Sabres enter this summer with just under $13MM in cap space. Taking care of Benson, along with their other restricted free agents, will quickly dissolve anything left to match what Tuch would be offered on July 1, not to mention addressing the hypothetical losses of Stanley and Schenn on the back end. A point Buffalo fans are already tired of hearing about, unfortunately Jeff Skinner‘s $6.44MM buyout charge is a huge factor this offseason. Finally having assembled the right pieces on their roster, now it’s about keeping together as much of the core as they can. If there’s any chance Tuch is back in blue and gold next year, they’ll have to find the space by trading another forward away. No doubt a difficult situation for Kekäläinen to navigate, the dilemma of keeping a playoff team together is one the Sabres only wished they had over the last decade.

Photo courtesy of Winslow Townson-Imagn Images (Benson). Contract information courtesy of PuckPedia.