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Potential Compliance Buyout Candidates: Part I

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As the current Coronavirus crisis wears on, it seems more and more likely that the NHL will not return to action soon and when play resumes, it will almost certainly not be the full remaining regular season schedule. That lost revenue is expected to impact the 2020-21 salary cap, perhaps even keeping the current $81.5MM upper limit in place. Given that teams expected an increase, initially projected to be between $84-88.2MM, this stagnation could have a harsh impact on a number of clubs’ cap situations. As such, many expect that compliance buyouts will return in some form or fashion to ease that pain. These buyouts, which do not count against the salary cap, would allow for teams to open up space that they otherwise expected from a cap increase.

Here is a rundown of the top compliance buyout candidates for the first third of NHL teams:

Anaheim Ducks: Adam Henrique

– The first team on the list is a tough call. Henrique has had a good season and the Ducks are not in significant cap trouble. However, with a long list of promising forward prospects and a defense that needs work, the team could opt to move on from the veteran forward and to create roster space and cap flexibility. Henrique, 30, is signed for four more years at $5.825MM.

Arizona Coyotes: Phil Kessel

– The Coyotes are in one of the worst positions in the league in terms of cap space, so the team would have to use a compliance buyout if the opportunity is offered to them. Kessel has been a relative bust in his first season with the ‘Yotes and is signed for two more years at $6.8MM. He has the potential to improve in year two, but Arizona may not have the luxury of taking the chance. The added cap space would be a major relief for the team.

Boston Bruins: John Moore

– Given the Bruins’ depth on defense in both veteran assets and budding prospects as well as Moore’s relegation to a backup role on the Boston blue line, he has become an expendable asset, especially if both Zdeno Chara and Torey Krug are back next season. Moore is signed longer than any current Bruins defenseman with three years and $8.25MM remaining, but the team’s commitment to him seems less than any of his fellow blue liners.

Buffalo Sabres: Kyle Okposo

– Unfortunately for the Sabres, the Okposo signing in 2016 has never panned out. His production dropped from 64 points with the New York Islanders in 2015-16 to just 45 points in his first year in Buffalo and that total has gone down in every year since. Okposo was on pace for just 24 points this year and may not even reach that mark. The Sabres would be quick to part ways with Okposo, who has three years at $6MM annually left on his contract, taking up valuable cap space that the team needs to use to improve the rest of their roster.

Calgary Flames: Milan Lucic

– Even with the salary being retained by the Edmonton Oilers on Lucic’s contract, his $5.25MM cap hit is still a pain for the Flames. The veteran power forward is not going to score 20+ goals or 50+ points in a season ever again and Calgary could do more with the added cap space over the next three years.

Carolina Hurricanes: Jake Gardiner

– For whatever reason, the Gardiner signing simply has not worked out as the Hurricanes had hoped. Gardiner, who was signed late last summer at a relative discount, has been a fine addition, but hasn’t been the point producer and power play ace that Carolina had hoped for. Following the deadline addition of Brady Skjei to arguably the deepest blue line in the NHL already, Gardiner and his remaining three years and $12.15MM are expendable.

Chicago Blackhawks: Brent Seabrook

– One of the more obvious choices on this list, Seabrook’s contract may the worst in the NHL right now. The 34-year-old has four years left at $6.875MM AAV on an eight-year, $55MM deal signed back in 2015. Over the term of the contract, Seabrook has declined rapidly and is a shell of his former self, regardless of health. The cap-strapped Blackhawks would not think twice about moving on.

Colorado Avalanche: Erik Johnson

– Johnson is a well-liked and well-respected long-time member of the Avalanche. However, as time has gone on the team has surrounded him with better, younger, and more affordable blue line options. As valuable as Johnson’s experience and leadership may be, he is an expendable piece without a clear future role. Signed through 2022-23 at a $6MM cap hit, Johnson is an expensive piece to keep around just for the intangibles and the Avs could look to use this opportunity to clear some space for some anticipated big game hunting this off-season.

Columbus Blue Jackets: Alexander Wennberg

– Blue Jackets fans have been calling for Wennberg’s head for years now and may finally get their wish. The once-promising young forward turned a 59-point 2016-17 season into a six-year, $29.4MM contract and then proceeded to regress immensely over the past few seasons instead of continuing to improve as expected. With another three years left at $4.9MM per, Wennberg doesn’t seem likely to get back to a level of play that would warrant his current cap hit and Columbus could move on, even from a 25-year-old homegrown product.

Dallas Stars: Andrew Cogliano

– The Stars are a team with numerous big names and long contracts, but their most inefficient name might just be Cogliano. Rather than using a buyout to move a heavy cap hit, Dallas could opt to trim the fat by removing a player that hasn’t been a good fit. Cogliano has showed that his six points in 32 games last season with the Stars following a trade from Anaheim was not a fluke; he followed it up with 14 points through 68 games this year. Expecting Cogliano to get back to 30+ point form in 2020-21 in his final year at $3.25MM seems hopeful at best and Dallas could use that space elsewhere with some lineup holes to fill this summer.

Stay tuned for Part II coming soon.

Snapshots: NHL Draft, Ovechkin, Crosby, Guentzel

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Yesterday, the NHL postponed the 2020 NHL Draft, which had been set to take place in Montreal on June 26-27. The league did not however indicate what the plan was to make up the event, which must occur in some form or fashion prior to the 2020-21 season. However, Pierre LeBrun writes for The Athletic that there are three possible solutions for the draft make-up. The least likely would be that the draft is simply postponed to a later date and takes place in Montreal as initially planned. LeBrun does not believe that a full draft, complete with teams, prospects, and fans alike in attendance, is a realistic option. Slightly more likely would be a scaled-down version, which LeBrun compares to the post-lockout draft in 2005, that still takes place in Montreal but with far less fanfare, but even this seems unlikely. The outcome most see occurring, falling in line with what junior leagues have decided for their own drafts, would be a virtual NHL Draft, wherein teams make their picks live from their individual war rooms. LeBrun mentions the possibility of a centralized location, in Montreal or elsewhere, with team reps and top prospects in attendance to react to the virtual selections.

If the draft does move to a virtual format, LeBrun reports that the league has promised Montreal that they will receive either the 2021 or 2022 NHL Draft. He adds that the NHL may even consider combining the NHL Entry Draft and NHL Expansion Draft into one week-long event in Montreal next summer. Given the rabid fan base of the city, it would be as good a location as any – barring Seattle itself maybe – to hold the Expansion Draft. If Montreal were to lose the draft this year only to gain two drafts next year, that would be quite the consolation prize.

  • Count arguably the two biggest names in hockey as supporters of calling the regular season and jumping right into the playoffs. On a conference call today among representatives of each of the Metropolitan Division teams, Pittsburgh’s Sidney Crosby and Washington’s Alex Ovechkin lobbied for the NHL to skip the remaining regular season games and resume play with the first round of the postseason, in whatever format they choose. Crosby opined that playing as many regular season games as possible would be best for the integrity of the season, but he “wouldn’t mind starting right at the playoffs.” Ovechkin was more direct, saying that he is “bored” with the league’s current pause and that his Capitals “don’t want to play those extra games” and would “rather start the playoffs right away.” Unsurprisingly, Carolina’s Jordan Staal, whose Hurricanes are safely in the postseason right now, agrees with Ovechkin and Crosby, while brother Marc Staal of the New York Rangers, who were hot before the league postponed its action, would rather resume the regular season in hopes of getting in. Curiously though, Columbus’ Nick Foligno, whose Blue Jackets would be in the standard playoff structure by total points but not by points percentage, the likely determinant of qualification, supported a jump right to the postseason, while the New York Islanders’ Anders Lee, whose team is in the opposite situation, preferred to finish the regular season. Opinions are sure to change based on the length of the league’s pause, the options for returning to action, and the potential format of postseason play, but for now there is major support behind surrendering the regular season in favor of an immediate postseason of some sort.
  • There are few NHL stakeholders who are benefiting from the current indefinite break in action. One of the only exceptions is Crosby’s teammate, Jake Guentzel. Guentzel suffered a shoulder injury in late December and was given a four-to-six-month recovery window following surgery. In a normal league year, that likely meant that Guentzel would be lucky to play again this season, only able to return for the playoffs, and almost certainly wouldn’t be able to get back to full strength. However, given the delay of the current pause, the status quo has shifted. Chris Adamski of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review relays word from GM Jim Rutherford that Guentzel’s rehab is going well and the team is optimistic that he will play again if the season resumes. Especially considering the strong likelihood that the NHL will need a mini training camp for teams to get back to game speed, Guentzel may even be back at full strength before a potential resumption of the regular season or start of the postseason in June or July. Guentzel recorded 43 points in 39 games playing with an injury-depleted forward corps prior to his own injury and would be a major asset for the Penguins, who would be the No. 3 seed in the Metropolitan Division if the playoffs began based on the current standings.

Blue Jackets Working On Long-Term Extension With Vladislav Gavrikov

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Blue Jackets defenseman Vladislav Gavrikov has been under contract for less than a year now but because he burned the first year of his entry-level pact in the playoffs last season, he will be in need of a new deal this summer.  Talks on a new contract have begun, reports Aaron Portzline of The Athletic (subscription required), who adds that the focus is on getting a long-term deal done.

The 24-year-old has been a key part of the back end for Columbus this season, logging just shy of 19 minutes a night while chipping in with five goals and 13 assists.  While those don’t jump off the charts at first glance, he has been able to provide a steady performance on a team that has been hit hard by the injury bug this year; his 69 games played leads all Blue Jackets defensemen.

Gavrikov will be owed a qualifying offer of just over $874K, a five percent bump on his salary this season which excludes his signing bonus.  Although he is in line to qualify to earn half of his $850K in Schedule ‘A’ bonuses, those aren’t factored into the required offer.

It’s worth noting that while Gavrikov’s deal will be up, he won’t be a typical restricted free agent.  Because of a lack of professional experience, he’s classified as a 10.2 (c) player in the CBA which means he is unable to be offer-sheeted and does not have any eligibility for salary arbitration.

It’s not surprising that Columbus wants to work out a long-term deal with Gavrikov.  He’s someone that they waited for basically four years to come over after being drafted and there is minimal stability on their back end in terms of current players under contract.  No one is signed past 2021-22 while veterans Ryan Murray and David Savard are eligible for unrestricted free agency in 2021 so there is some potential for a lot of turnover in the next little while.  Getting Gavrikov signed up for the foreseeable future would at least lock one important part of their back end in place.

East Notes: Chara, Devils GM Position, Kotkaniemi, Meyer

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Almost a year ago, Boston Bruins defenseman Zdeno Chara signed a one-year extension (on Mar. 23) as he made it quite clear he wanted to return for another season in Boston. While the league remains suspended, it should be noted that the 43-year-old has not shown the same enthusiasm of signing a contract. Could that signal the end of his career is coming?

When interviewed recently, Chara’s agent Matt Keator, was quite vague about negotiations on a new contract.

“Not thinking about it right now,” said Keator. “Something we’ll all sit down with at the end of the year — Z, me, [Bruins GM] Don Sweeney — and figure out what’s next.”

The Boston Globe’s Kevin Paul Dupont writes that if the season doesn’t resume, there is a good chance that Chara may have played his last game as a Boston Bruin. While there remains a good chance that the league resumes eventually, which would allow Boston to fight for a Stanley Cup, including Chara, there is a chance that the season gets cancelled and Chara chooses to retire.

Chara still is a solid top pairing defenseman for the Bruins. He averages 21:01 of ATOI, while putting up five goals, 14 points, 60 penalty minutes, 101 hits and has blocked 78 shots in 68 games.

  • The New Jersey Devils might find themselves in bind when it comes to interviewing candidates for their open general manager and coaching positions, according to The Athletic’s Corey Masisak (subscription required). While the team did already interview former Vancouver Canucks GM Mike Gillis two weeks ago, the Devils were hoping to wait until the season was over to interview candidates that are currently employed. With a delay until the season ends, New Jersey could find itself without a permanent GM in place for quite a while, something the team wanted to avoid. Interim general manager Tom Fitzgerald remains a candidate, which could increase the chances of him getting the permanent job. Another option, according to Masisak would be if the NHL allowed teams to interview candidates during the break.
  • The Athletic’s Arpon Basu (subscription required) breaks down the stock of Montreal Canadiens 2018 first-round pick Jesperi Kotkaniemi, who was lost for the season last week with an injured spleen with little fanfare for a top prospect. The scribe looks at what has happened to the team’s view on the highly regarded rookie last season and how the 19-year-old had lost his confidence during that season and how it hadn’t returned this season, which includes how the centerman was sent to Laval after struggling in his sophomore campaign with just six goals and eight points in 36 games.
  • The Athletic’s Aaron Portzline reports that Columbus Blue Jackets prospect Carson Meyer, who completed his senior year at Ohio State University, has signed with an agent, Jeff Boston of Roy Sports Group. Unfortunately, his next step is unclear with the suspension of play at both the NHL or AHL level. Meyer wrapped up his senior year with a career-high 17 goals and although he could wait until August to become an unrestricted free agent, he is an Ohio native, suggesting he might prefer to sign with the team that drafted him.

 

Columbus Blue Jackets Will Play In Empty Arena

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The Columbus Blue Jackets have announced that they will play tomorrow night’s home game against the Pittsburgh Penguins with restricted attendance. The game will be closed to the public, with admission limited to club personnel, credentialed media, broadcast partners, NHL officials and essential arena staff.

This will be the first NHL game played without fans in the stands, though the San Jose Sharks are facing a similar decision when they return off their current road trip.

The rest of the Blue Jackets’ home games are also scheduled to be played with restricted attendance. Columbus has five games remaining during the regular season, but are also in a race for the playoffs.

Today, the World Health Organization classified the COVID-19 outbreak as a global pandemic, causing several sporting organizations to cancel or restrict attendance at upcoming events. The NCAA Men’s and Women’s basketball tournaments have been closed to fans, and this is likely not the final NHL team to close their doors.

Frank Seravalli of TSN wrote today how the outbreak could affect the NHL’s financials, including examining the impact it could have on next year’s salary cap. The cap is based on a projection of hockey-related revenue, something that would obviously decrease without ticket sales. At this point it is entirely too early to say what exactly could happen to the league, especially if playoff games are affected this season.

East Notes: Islanders, Hainsey, Drouin, Meyer

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The New York Islanders had high hopes this season and looked like serious contenders in the Metropolitan Division at the trade deadline. The Islanders even went out and were active at the trade deadline, suggesting that they were going to go for it, trading a first, two seconds and a conditional third-round pick to pick up center Jean-Gabriel Pageau and defenseman Andy Greene.

Suddenly, however, the Islanders have struggled, losing six straight and going 2-5-3 in their past 10 games, and sliding out of the top three in the Metro. The Islanders now are hanging onto a wild card spot and if the team cannot figure things out, they could easily slide out of the playoffs. Newsday’s Andrew Gross writes that falling out of the playoffs would be a disaster for the Islanders.

The scribe adds that there would be a lot of question marks if that happens and wonders if the team needs to add a star forward in the offseason to give the team a boost in the future. One possibility would be trying to sign soon-to-be unrestricted free agent Taylor Hall away from Arizona. Hall spent the past three and a half years in the New York area and if the Islanders can find the cap room, make him a significant offer.

  • The Ottawa Sun’s Bruce Garrioch writes that Ottawa Senators defenseman Ron Hainsey is a strong candidate to re-sign with the club this offseason. The 38-year-old blueliner, who signed a one-year, $3.5MM contract with Ottawa last summer, has spent the season paired with Thomas Chabot, mentoring the young defenseman. Hainsey has one goal and 11 points this season, but more importantly carries a plus-10 rating on a weak Ottawa squad and is a personal favorite of coach D.J. Smith, who got to know him when he was an assistant coach with the Toronto Maple Leafs.
  • TVA’s Renaud Lavoie reports that Montreal Canadiens winger Jonathan Drouin has skated several times this week. The 24-year-old has been out most recently with an ankle injury that has already waylaid him for three games and there still remains no timetable on when he will return. Drouin has not been able to stay healthy this season, being held to just 27 games this year due to various injuries. He currently has seven goals and 15 points.
  • The Columbus Blue Jackets will have a decision to make soon on one of they draft picks, Carson Meyer, who is wrapping up his senior season with Ohio State University. The 22-year-old is having a breakout season with 17 goals and 31 points, but Columbus must decide if they want to offer the 2017 sixth-round pick a NHL contract. The Athletic’s Aaron Portzline (subscription required) writes the team might sign Meyer to a professional tryout agreement with the Cleveland Monsters to see how the forward might fare at the professional level before making a final decision. He also will become an unrestricted free agent in August of this year.

Minor Transactions: 3/8/20

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With 20 teams in action Saturday, there was plenty of playoff implications, which included a big win for the Tampa Bay Lightning over the Boston Bruins in a rough, physical matchup. However, many other teams furthered their quest to get into the playoffs or pick up a higher seed with Carolina, Washington, Nashville, Florida, Philadelphia and Edmonton all picking up key wins. Several teams have made roster moves as teams juggle their lineups. We’ll keep track of all minor moves right here:

  • Late last night, the Anaheim Ducks announced they have assigned defenseman Brendan Guhle to the San Diego Gulls of the AHL. Guhle didn’t see much time in the second half of Friday’s game against Toronto, playing just 14:43. The 22-year-old has four goals and eight points in 30 games for the Ducks this year.  The Ducks have also recalled goalie Anthony Stolarz from San Diego, reports Elliott Teaford of the Orange County Register.  John Gibson is unavailable after suffering a groin injury against Toronto on Friday.
  • The New York Islanders sent defenseman Thomas Hickey to the Bridgeport Sound Tigers of the AHL, according to the AHL transaction page. The Islanders brought up Hickey on an emergency loan Saturday due to the injury to Johnny Boychuk, but have opted to return Hickey after just one game.
  • The Buffalo Sabres announced they have assigned defenseman John Gilmour to the Rochester Americans of the AHL. Gilmour was recalled Saturday as a seventh defenseman after the team learned that Lawrence Pilut would not be able to play Saturday night.
  • The Columbus Blue Jackets have assigned goaltender Matiss Kivlenieks to the Cleveland Monsters of the AHL, according to Brian Hedger of the Columbus Dispatch. Kivlenieks has served as the backup to Joonas Korpisalo recently with Elvis Merzlikins injured. However, Merzlikins served as the backup Saturday, which allows the Blue Jackets to give Kivlenieks more playing time in Cleveland.
  • CapFriendly reports that after recalling Janne Kuokkanen from Binghamton Saturday, the New Jersey Devils have already assigned the forward back to his AHL affiliate. The team did not use him in their game on Saturday against the New York Rangers.
  • The Ottawa Senators announced they have assigned goaltender Filip Gustavsson to the Belleville Senators of the AHL. With Anders Nilsson and Marcus Hogberg both out, the Senators recalled Gustavsson last Monday, but he never got into a game. However, Hogberg is back at practice, meaning he will take over backup duties for Craig Anderson.

Ryan Murray Nicked Up, No Word On How Long He'll Miss

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Ryan Murray’s injury history is a lengthy one and the Blue Jackets defenseman finds himself on the shelf again.  Columbus head coach John Tortorella told reporters, including Brian Hedger of the Columbus Post-Dispatch (Twitter link) that Murray is “nicked” and that he doesn’t yet know if it’s going to be a day-to-day issue or something longer.  The 26-year-old just returned to the lineup on Sunday after missing 34 games due to a lower-body injury and certainly made an immediate impact, picking up two assists in two games while logging over 20 minutes in each contest.  Markus Nutivaara will be back in the lineup to replace Murray.

Columbus Blue Jackets Sign Jake Christiansen

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If you’re an undrafted member of the Everett Silvertips, today is signing day apparently. After Bryce Kindropp was inked by the Anaheim Ducks, the Columbus Blue Jackets have now signed defenseman Jake Christiansen to a three-year entry-level contract. It will begin with the 2020-21 season, while Christiansen will finish the year with Everett.

The 20-year old Christiansen actually played nine games with the Stockton Heat at the start of this season on a professional tryout, but returned to Everett in early December. It seems as though his time in the AHL taught him a few things, as the left-handed defenseman sits with 20 goals and 47 points in just 35 games with the Silvertips.

Columbus adds another lottery ticket and some depth for their minor league club with the signing, and will hope that Christiansen can continue on his current development path.

Oliver Bjorkstrand Out 8-10 Weeks

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March 3: Bjorkstrand underwent successful surgery to repair his broken ankle, meaning the eight to ten week timeline starts now.

February 21: If you though the Columbus Blue Jackets’ injury luck couldn’t get any worse, you were wrong. The team announced today that Oliver Bjorkstrand will be out for eight to ten weeks with a sprained and broken ankle. They have not yet made a decision on whether surgery will be required.

Bjorkstrand, when eventually placed on injured reserve, will join a list that currently includes Cam Atkinson, Brandon Dubinsky, Seth Jones, Alexander Wennberg, Ryan Murray, Josh Anderson, Alexandre Texier, Dean Kukan and Joonas Korpisalo. It also will make it even more difficult for them to grab a playoff spot in a tight Eastern Conference race.

The Blue Jackets have been an impressive bunch this season, fighting through injury and finding a way to win on a regular basis. A big part of that success was thanks to Bjorkstrand himself, who easily leads the team in goals with 21 and is third in points. The 24-year old has become a legitimate top-six force and was on pace to blow by his career-high of 40 points. That won’t happen now, though perhaps he could return at some point in the playoffs if the Blue Jackets make it and advance past the first round.

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