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Expansion Primer: Colorado Avalanche

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Over the next few weeks, we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.

The last time the expansion process rolled around, the Avalanche were in great shape. They ended up losing depth goaltender Calvin Pickard, who never even played a game in the Vegas organization. He cleared waivers and then was traded for a sixth-round pick and Tobias Lindberg the following October, meaning Colorado certainly didn’t part with much of an asset. This time around the Avalanche are a much deeper roster and things may not be so painless.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards: 

Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, Andre Burakovsky, Nazem Kadri, Joonas Donskoi, J.T. Compher, Valeri Nichushkin, Tyson Jost, Kiefer Sherwood, Travis Barron, Logan O’Connor, Ty Lewis, Jayson Megna, Vladislav Kamenev

Defense:

Erik Johnson (NMC), Samuel Girard, Devon Toews, Ryan Graves, Dennis Gilbert, Cale Makar, Jacob MacDonald

Goalies:

Hunter Miska, Jonas Johansson

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

F Gabriel Landeskog, F Brandon Saad, D Patrik Nemeth, G Philipp Grubauer, G Devan Dubnyk

Notable Exemptions

F Shane Bowers, F Sampo Ranta, F Alex Newhook, F Martin Kaut, D Conor Timmins, D Bowen Byram, G Pavel Francouz

Key Decisions

Just reading through the list of eligible players you can start to see a problem for the Avalanche, and a potential reason why Landeskog remains unsigned. It’s not clear whether the team has a deal “in the drawer” for their captain (reports indicate that isn’t the case, though things can change at any moment), but it certainly would help the situation if he signs after the draft instead of before it. Remember, that strategy technically gives the Kraken a chance to speak with Landeskog ahead of the draft, meaning they could offer him a huge contract to try and pry him away from the only team he’s ever known.

Even if he and Saad are not signed before the draft though, it still leaves Colorado GM Joe Sakic with a tough decision. Do you protect seven forwards and three defensemen, potentially risking a young player from the blueline, or eight skaters in order to make sure that defense corps stays intact? The decision will be almost entirely based on whether Johnson agrees to waive his no-movement clause, which would normally force the Avalanche into protecting him. The veteran defenseman is an unlikely target for Seattle because of his age, contract, and recent injury issues, meaning waiving it would only serve to help the franchise he currently plays for.

Assuming he does waive it and the team goes the seven forwards-three defenseman route, there are still plenty of decisions to be made. Rantanen, MacKinnon, Burakovsky, and Nichushkin are easy choices to protect at forward, but that leaves the group of Kadri, Donskoi, Compher, Jost, and O’Connor to fill just three spots.

It might have been easy to pencil Kadri into that must-protect list a few months ago, but after getting another playoff suspension, there will have to be at least some discussion over whether he should be a core piece moving forward. Three times now in his career he hasn’t been available when his team needed him most, and the 30-year-old center has just one year left on his contract.

Donskoi and Compher are both valuable players, but given their cap hits ($3.9MM and $3.5MM respectively) it wouldn’t be the end of the world to lose one of them, with so many free agents to sign this offseason. One of those free agents is Jost, who is an arbitration-eligible RFA. He too has settled into a role with the Avalanche and is still just 23, but hasn’t experienced the offensive breakout that was expected when the team selected him 10th overall in 2016.

That leaves O’Connor, who some may overlook simply because of his undrafted status and lack of NHL experience, but there were real moments of upside from him this season as a bottom-six piece. The fact that he will carry a cap hit next season that is less than league minimum ($725K) makes him a valuable option for an Avalanche team that will be skirting the salary cap ceiling all year long.

Of course, even if Johnson does waive his clause, it doesn’t mean things come easy on defense. The simple answer is to protect Makar, Girard and Toews, who each logged more than 23 minutes a night this season and are all core pieces of the roster. But that would mean exposing Graves, who arguably outplayed Toews and Girard in the playoffs and carries the lowest cap hit of the three. The 26-year-old Graves looks like he is still improving and could very well be part of the Kraken top-four if left exposed.

In net, there isn’t even anyone that really deserves protecting, unless Grubauer re-signs before the draft. That means the Avalanche could actually make a trade for a new starting goaltender before the draft if they believe their incumbent Vezina finalist will be too expensive to bring back.

Projected Protection List

F Mikko Rantanen
F Nathan MacKinnon
F Andre Burakovsky
F Nazem Kadri
F Joonas Donskoi
F Valeri Nichushkin
F Tyson Jost

D Samuel Girard
D Devon Toews
D Cale Makar

G Jonas Johansson

*Assuming Landeskog does not re-sign before the draft and Johnson waives his NMC

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined.  Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined.  In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.

Forwards (1): J.T. Compher
Defensemen (3): Erik Johnson, Ryan Graves, Jacob MacDonald

Of course, in this situation the Avalanche still have some work to do. They need to leave two forwards exposed that meet the requirements, and by protecting both Donskoi and Kadri it leaves just one. A new contract for Landeskog,  or Saad would change this, but they could also just extend Bellemare or even Calvert if he is healthy enough to return to action. On the back end, Johnson waiving his NMC would do the trick, but even without him they have enough options to fill the single required spot.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

No Substantive Talks Yet With Pending UFAs Landeskog And Grubauer

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The Avalanche haven’t gotten into substantive contract discussions with pending UFAs Gabriel Landeskog and Philipp Grubauer, reports Peter Baugh of The Athletic (subscription link).  Landeskog, Colorado’s captain, has spent the last ten years with the Avs and will be hitting the open market for the first time.  He’s believed to be seeking a long-term contract and an eight-year pact would basically lock him up for the rest of his career.  However, they have to be mindful of the fact that Nathan MacKinnon is two years away from needing a substantial raise and Cale Makar will get one this summer as a restricted free agent.  If Landeskog wants top dollar, they may not be able to afford it.

As for Grubauer, he could have a shot at doubling the $3.33MM AAV he had on his last contract which could also price him out of what the Avalanche can afford.  But they also can’t afford to go into next season with Pavel Francouz – who didn’t play at all in 2020-21 – as the number one.  Whether it’s Grubauer or someone else, they’ll need to set aside some money for goaltending.

“Every GM In The League” Has Called On Seth Jones

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The Columbus Blue Jackets are having to make another difficult decision this off-season, as star defenseman Seth Jones has indicated that he will test free agency next summer rather than re-sign. As The Athletic’s Aaron Portzline writes, barring a change of heart, this means that Jones will be traded, as expected. GM Jarmo Kekalainen has allowed other top players to stay with the team and walk as free agents in recent years, but with the team re-tooling and John Davidson back in his role as team president and focused on the future, Jones will not follow suit.

Fortunately, the Blue Jackets will have no trouble at all trading Jones and will be able to get a major return back. Kekalainen tells Portzline that he has ” heard from just about every GM in the league” since Jones’ availability became public. This could be puffery from the veteran executive to drive up the price, but is also entirely believable. Jones has been playing top-pair minutes for years, produces on offense, is solid on defense, and has improved in his physicality as well. At just 26, Jones is one of the more complete defensemen in the NHL and any club could use him.

Who will be the lucky team that lands Jones though? Portzline has heard four names come up repeatedly in conversations with sources around the league: Chicago, Colorado, Los Angeles, and Philadelphia. The Avalanche certainly stand out as a outlier; the top contenders have plenty of depth on defense and are lacking in cap space, this year and beyond. They would likely be looking at Jones as a year-long rental as they push for that elusive Stanley Cup. Would the cost be worth the short-term investment though? The other three clubs certainly would be eyeing a long-term deal with Jones as they are each in need of a top-tier defenseman. The Flyers have long been searching for a capable player to pair with Ivan Provorov on their top pair and Jones is as good a fit as can be found on the market. The Blackhawks also have been without a truly elite defenseman for some time. Like Colorado, they have salary cap issues but would be more willing and able to make it work. The Kings are the most dangerous buyer on the market, armed with a ton of talented prospects and fueled by a desire to improve before their aging core calls it quits. A top defenseman would go a long way in L.A.’s effort to return to relevance.

Of course, as Jones’ market continues to develop and the asking price becomes more concrete, another suitor could swoop in. Every team in the league will keep an eye on the bidding war over the next few weeks, before the Blue Jackets are expected to pull the trigger, by the NHL Entry Draft if not before.

Negotiation Notes: Larsson, Andersen, Makar, Canucks

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After locking up Ryan Nugent-Hopkins to a long-term deal earlier today, the Edmonton Oilers will next turn their attention to reaching a new deal with defenseman Adam Larsson. According to TSN’s Darren Dreger in the latest edition of “Insider Trading“, that is more of a “when” than an “if” at the is point. Dreger states that the two sides are already close to a new deal and “in the final stretch” of negotiations. He expects that an extension will be reached soon. For Expansion Draft purposes, soon may not be until later next month, but a handshake agreement will do in the meantime. Larsson, 28, is one of the more stable defensemen in the NHL. If the defensive-minded right-shooter hit the open market, he would draw plenty of attention, but like Nugent-Hopkins, Larsson appears willing to settle on a deal to keep him in Edmonton with reigning Hart Trophy winners Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. So really, with RNH signed and Larsson not far behind, the Oilers may actually be focusing on external negotiations already, as Dreger notes they must add a goalie and complementary scoring forwards this summer.

  • It may come as a surprise following a career-worst season, but there is mutual interest in an extension between the Toronto Maple Leafs and goaltender Frederik Andersen. TSN’s Pierre LeBrun reports that agent Claude Lemieux recently met with the Maple Leafs’ brass and both sides expressed interest in a new deal, perhaps to the surprise of both. Andersen is likely not keen to enter the open market after a down year (and really many years of slow decline) when he could instead stay in familiar territory in Toronto. The Leafs also need a netminder this off-season and may be content to stick with Andersen, despite his struggles, given the play of Jack Campbell this season. LeBrun does point out that Toronto has told Andersen’s camp that he would be sharing the net with Campbell, potentially even starting out at less than 50% of starts, but Andersen is reportedly open to that arrangement.
  • Every year there is the threat of offer sheets and every year it never happens, but LeBrun notes that rumblings around the league are that Colorado Avalanche star Cale Makar could be the prime candidate this summer. With the Avalanche needing to extend the First Team All-Star as well as captain Gabriel Landeskog, starting goaltender Philipp Grubauer, and top-six forward Brandon Saad, all while saving room to extend superstar Nathan MacKinnon and replace several impending UFA’s next summer, cap space is tight in Denver. If another team swooped in with an offer that Makar couldn’t refuse, it might just be too much of a handicap for the Avs. Doubtful, but possible. Colorado can eliminate the risk of an offer sheet to their young phenom if they can lock Makar up before the market opens on July 28.
  • The Vancouver Canucks are already hard at work on extension for arguably their two most important players, defenseman Quinn Hughes and center Elias Pettersson. The pair of restricted free agents are centerpiece players for the Canucks and the team will whatever it takes to keep them around as long as possible. Dreger notes that GM Jim Benning and company are meeting again this week with agents from CAA Sports, who represent both young stars. A number of possibilities are on the table for both players, including a three-year bridge deal for Pettersson in the same vein as the recent contracts of Mathew Barzal and Brayden Point. However, it seems like long-term is the ideal goal. Pettersson is reportedly open to a long-term deal like that of Mikko Rantanen, while Hughes has explored contracts with terms between four and six years.

Free Agent Focus: Colorado Avalanche

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Free agency is now just a little more than a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in late July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well. The Avalanche have their captain to sign, but he isn’t even the most important deal they have to complete.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Tyson Jost – Not the first player you think of when you think of pending free agents on the Avalanche, but an important negotiation just the same. Jost, 23, is an interesting case study to watch this summer after signing his qualifying offer last year. For one thing, he is now arbitration-eligible, meaning the negotiation will be taken out of their hands if necessary, but the young forward has still not taken the developmental step that many expected. Selected 10th overall in 2016, Jost quickly became a regular in the Colorado lineup, but has failed to record more than 26 points in a single season. His average ice time increased this year to over 14 minutes, but he still had just seven goals and 17 points to show for it. Can he be a long-term piece in the middle-six, or will Jost try to maximize earnings by reaching free agency as quickly as possible? Because he has already completed four seasons, he’s just three years away from unrestricted free agency and won’t have to wait until he’s 27.

D Cale Makar – This is the player that everyone is watching in Colorado as he gets set for his first contract negotiation. Makar has played two seasons in the NHL and could very well have two major trophies to show for it. After winning the Calder in year one, he is a finalist for the Norris Trophy as the league’s best defenseman in just his sophomore campaign. There’s a very real argument to be made that he is the most valuable defenseman in the league right now and a contract indicative of that is likely coming down the pipe. As Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet wrote yesterday, any talk of long-term extensions will have to start at Thomas Chabot’s eight-year, $64MM extension in 2019 and go up from there. Makar (along with fellow young stars Miro Heiskanen and Quinn Hughes) is ahead of Chabot in terms of early-career success and any new contract could end up making him one of the highest-paid defenseman in the league straight out of his entry-level deal. Currently, there are only four defensemen in the league with an average annual value of $9MM or more; Erik Karlsson ($11.5MM), Drew Doughty ($11.0MM), Roman Josi ($9.06MM), and P.K. Subban ($9.0MM). If the Avalanche want to go max-term with Makar, that group is almost certainly going to grow.

Other RFAs: F Kiefer Sherwood, F Travis Barron, F Ty Lewis, D Dennis Gilbert, D Conor Timmins, G Peyton Jones, G Adam Werner

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

F Gabriel Landeskog – A second-overall pick steps directly into the NHL, wins the Calder Trophy as the league’s top rookie, and is named captain before his sophomore season. That’s how Landeskog’s story started, and ten years into his career he has established himself as a true franchise icon. Even though there have been other players that take the spotlight at times, the 28-year-old winger has been a constant driving force behind any success the Avalanche have experienced and already sits among the franchise greats on many all-time lists. Seventh in games played, sixth in goals, eighth in points, even if Landeskog doesn’t play another game in an Avalanche sweater, he has made quite the impact on the franchise. That’s why it seems so unlikely that they let him go at this point, especially after another outstanding season.

The problem is that there is only so much money, and given how big of a contract Makar is looking at, the Avalanche won’t be dealing with a ton of cap space. Landeskog scored 52 points in 54 games this season and is the kind of physical, heart-and-soul player that would be coveted by every other team in the league. If he wants to check the open market there will be plenty of suitors waiting to snatch him up. That includes the Seattle Kraken, who will get a chance to speak with him ahead of everyone else should Landeskog still not be signed by 48 hours before the expansion draft. It seems entirely reasonable to assume Colorado already has a deal done with Landeskog that will be announced after that expansion draft is completed, but until those papers are filed, other teams can certainly dream.

G Philipp Grubauer – Oh that cap space problem? Don’t forget that the Avalanche don’t currently have a starting goaltender for next season, as their Vezina finalist is also a pending UFA. Grubauer put together the best season of his career at the perfect time, recording a .922 save percentage in 40 appearances. Though he has put up those kinds of save numbers in the past, one of the biggest questions that followed him was whether he could carry the load of a true starting goaltender. Well, strapping on the pads for 40/56 games in a condensed schedule certainly answers that question, especially when it results in 30 wins. Of course, there was a few slip-ups in the postseason, which may cause teams to hesitate when drawing up a long-term contract, but there is still little doubt that Grubauer will receive a substantial raise on the three-year, $10MM deal he signed in 2018. Still just 29, he is Colorado’s best option and at the same time could have played himself out of their price range.

Other UFAs: F Brandon Saad, F Liam O’Brien, F Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, F Matt Calvert, F T.J. Tynan, F Mike Vecchione, F Sheldon Dries, D Patrik Nemeth, D Kyle Burroughs, D Dan Renouf, G Devan Dubnyk

Projected Cap Space

The good news: Colorado has nearly $25.5MM in cap space. The bad news: the rest is owed to just 11 players. Normally, players like Saad and Timmins would be front and center on any examination of pending free agents, but on the Avalanche they are secondary to the big fish that need new deals. GM Joe Sakic simply isn’t going to be able to keep everyone around to run back the same group in 2021-22, meaning difficult decisions will have to be made. Can they fit in a long-term deal for Makar alongside healthy extensions for Landeskog and Grubauer? What kind of cap space will that leave them with to fill out the rest of the roster? One important factor is the health and future of Erik Johnson, who ended the year on long-term injured reserve. He played just four games this season and though he skated with the team, didn’t appear in the postseason. His $6MM cap hit could be extremely useful to the Avalanche in other areas, but he’s also an important part of the leadership group in Colorado.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Colorado Avalanche Re-Sign Jonas Johansson

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The Colorado Avalanche are going to keep one of their midseason acquisitions, re-signing Jonas Johansson to a one-year contract. The depth goaltender was acquired from the Buffalo Sabres in March and was set to become a Group VI unrestricted free agent this summer. Peter Baugh of The Athletic reports that the two-way deal will carry an NHL salary of $750K.

Johansson, 25, has played just 21 games in the NHL to this point in his career, despite being a relatively high draft pick in 2014. Selected 61st overall, he slowly worked his way up through the Sabres minor league system, making his NHL debut in 2019-20. Unfortunately, that debut didn’t go very well, with Johansson posting an .894 save percentage in six appearances. He struggled again at the start of 2020-21 when the Sabres were desperate for competent goaltending, leading to the trade with the Avalanche.

Amazingly, things seemed to immediately turned around when put behind a more capable lineup. In Colorado, Johansson posted a .913 save percentage in eight appearances, even recording his first NHL shutout. His 5-1-1 record for the Avalanche showed he could at least be a depth option, if not a full-time backup at the NHL level next season.

At the league minimum, that can be quite a valuable asset for the Avalanche, though Johansson will have to clear waivers to report to the minor leagues. That could mean he is a target of many teams in training camp, should they go through any goaltending injuries early on.

Carl Soderberg Signs In Sweden

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Carl Soderberg’s time in the NHL has come to an end.  Rather than take another run at the free agent market next month, the veteran has decided to head back home as Malmo of the SHL announced that they’ve signed Soderberg to a two-year contract.

Soderberg was one of the top-scoring centers in free agency in the fall after a 35-point campaign with Arizona (and 49 the year before with Colorado).  However, interest was limited and it took until just before training camps began for him to land a one-year, $1MM contract with Chicago.

The 35-year-old managed to put up a respectable seven goals and eight assists in 34 games with the Blackhawks before he was traded to the Avalanche as extra depth for their playoff push.  He wound up having a limited role with them down the stretch, notching just two assists in 11 games and was a frequent healthy scratch in the playoffs although he did manage a goal and two helpers in his four contests.

That type of end to his season wouldn’t have helped his free agent market so rather than sit waiting for an opportunity to come up, Soderberg will instead return to his hometown team, getting himself a two-year guarantee in the process.  His NHL time wraps up with 110 goals and 187 assists in 597 career regular season games.  Not a bad run at all for someone who is legally blind in his left eye.

Colorado Avalanche Re-Sign Jayson Megna

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The Colorado Avalanche will bring back Jayson Megna next season and the one after that. The pending free agent forward has signed a two-year contract extension that will keep him in the Avalanche organization through the 2022-23 campaign. The financial details have not yet been released, but in all likelihood, the deal will be a two-way contract worth the league minimum of $750K at the NHL level.

Megna, 31, certainly seems to be okay with that kind of a deal, given he has never had a contract worth more in the NHL than his entry-level paid. He has gone almost year-to-year throughout his career, signing one-year deals with the Penguins, Rangers, Canucks, Capitals and Avalanche. The security of a two-year contract must seem like a huge win for the minor league veteran, who continues to provide depth for the Colorado organization.

In 2020-21, he played nearly as many games with the Avalanche as he did with the Colorado Eagles, suiting up seven times in the NHL. He registered two points during those games, but managed another seven goals and nine points in 13 minor league contests.

Despite being eligible for the expansion draft, he has not played quite enough games to fill the Avalanche forward requirements, meaning this two-year deal is more about his place in the organization than any other expansion manipulation. He’ll need to clear waivers next season to go to the Eagles, but that shouldn’t be much of an obstacle.

Snapshots: Capuano, Tardif, Asselin

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With the divisional playoffs now over, the days of the North, East, West, and Central (sort of) are over. Teams are already shifting their mindsets back to the Atlantic, Metropolitan, Pacific, and the true Central, working out how best to beat out their division rivals and make the postseason next year. After taking a step forward this season, albeit against lesser competition, the Ottawa Senators are no exception. The long-time bottom-dwellers are just as cutthroat in their pursuit of success, even if that means handicapping one of their own. Joe MacDonald of the Worcester Telegram & Gazette reports that the Senators have blocked associate head coach Jack Capuano from interviewing for the Buffalo Sabres’ head coach vacancy. Buffalo will be Ottawa’s divisional rival once again next season and beyond and the team will not lose a valued member of their staff with inside knowledge of the organization to one of their most frequent competitors. After leading Team USA to a bronze medal and the best record in group play at the recent IIHF World Championships, Capuano’s name is back in the mix as a head coach candidate. The long-time New York Islander bench boss is still held in high regard around the league and the Sabres may not be the only team kicking his tires. Perhaps the Senators will let him go elsewhere, just not within the Atlantic Division.

  • After wrapping a strong junior career in the QMJHL, capped off by a stellar run with the Victoriaville Tigres that ended with a league title, Ben Tardif was expected to have some NHL interest. The 21-year-old forward had scored at better than a point-per-game clip in each of the past two seasons, culminating in 11 goals and 22 points in 19 games for Victoriaville en route to the President’s Cup. However, Tardif seemingly did not receive the attention he might have expected and has settled for an AHL contract. The Colorado Eagles announced that they have signed Tardif to a two-year contract. The Colorado Avalanche obviously have some stock in the move as well, hoping that Tardif can use the time to round out his game and show that his offense can translate to the pro level. If he succeeds, Tardif will find himself in a great spot as part of an Avs club that looks like it will contend for many years to come.
  • One player whose career Tardif will likely be following is Samuel Asselin. A QMJHL star himself –  a Memorial Cup champion and league-leading goal-scorer – Asselin too was surprisingly unable to land an NHL contract after his junior career ended. Like Tardif, he signed a two-year deal with the AHL’s Providence Bruins instead. Following a point-per-game, All-Star season in the ECHL last year, Asselin was a full-time member of the P-Bruins this season and showed that there is more to his game than scoring ability with a gritty, high-energy style. And other teams took notice. Mark Divver of The New England Hockey Journal writes that NHL competitors are sniffing around Asselin and time is running out for the Bruins to lock him in to an entry-level contract. The club holds the right of first refusal to match any competing offer, but only while Asselin remains under contract. Once the off-season arrives, Asselin could depart with Boston having nothing to show for two years of development.

Erik Johnson To Waive No-Move Clause For Expansion

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Avalanche defenseman Erik Johnson is expected to waive his no-move clause for the upcoming expansion draft, reports Mike Chambers of the Denver Post.  The 33-year-old was limited to just four games this season due to an upper-body injury, last suiting up in January.  Johnson has two years left on his deal with a $6MM AAV and considering that and how little he played this season, it’s extremely unlikely that he would be picked by Seattle.  Johnson waiving his protection would allow Colorado to protect all three of Cale Makar, Devon Toews, and Samuel Girard.

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