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Snapshots: Rantanen, Slater, Abramov

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The Colorado Avalanche have been in the headlines constantly thanks to their ongoing negotiations (or lack thereof) with Mikko Rantanen, and today more information came out about the contract talks. Ryan S. Clark of The Athletic reports (subscription required) that the Avalanche are trying to secure a six- to eight-year deal that would carry an average annual value somewhere between $8.4MM and $8.75MM. A three-year term with a $9.5MM cap hit would be a “non-starter” for the Avalanche according to Clark, and that the goal is still to get the young forward signed long-term.

Rantanen’s agent recently posed a comparison between his client and Toronto Maple Leafs forward Mitch Marner, who notably signed a six-year deal as well. Unfortunately for the Avalanche, Marner’s cap hit came in at $10.893MM, quite a bit higher than the reported numbers Colorado is looking for. The Avalanche begin their season on Thursday, October 3rd.

  • The Washington Capitals have hired former NHL forward Jim Slater, adding him to their player development department. Slater spent the last four seasons in Switzerland and announced his retirement earlier this summer. A first-round pick of the Atlanta Thrashers in 2002, Slater played 584 games in the NHL and recorded 138 points.
  • The Montreal Canadiens aren’t the only Canadian team with a young forward dealing with a concussion. Vitaly Abramov of the Ottawa Senators has suffered a concussion as well according to Bruce Garrioch of Postmedia, obviously putting the rest of his training camp in jeopardy. The 21-year old forward made his NHL debut last year after a trade brought him to Ottawa, and was expected to compete for a spot this season.

More On Mikko Rantanen, Colorado Avalanche

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“The Avs aren’t going to pay Mitch Marner money”

That’s what Pierre LeBrun writes in his latest column for The Athletic (subscription required), which examines some of the ongoing negotiations around the league including the one in Colorado with Avalanche forward Mikko Rantanen. While they aren’t ready to pay up to the $10.893MM average annual value Marner received from the Toronto Maple Leafs, LeBrun reports that the team did make Rantanen a long-term offer earlier this month and that they would match an offer sheet “in a heartbeat.”

Rantanen’s agent Mike Liut hit the airwaves this week and turned some stomachs in Colorado when he compared his client to Marner directly, noting that they both are playmaking wingers (though he admitted they go about their offensive games a bit differently). The 22-year old has actually outscored Marner if you combine the last two seasons, and has 13 more goals in his career despite playing fewer games. It’s hard to argue that the pair don’t belong in the same tax bracket, but the Avalanche apparently don’t see it that way.

The Avalanche have plenty of cap room if they ever wanted to go that high, but still have to worry about a few other contracts down the line. Nathan MacKinnon is locked into one of the best contracts in the league for the next four years, but Gabriel Landeskog, Philipp Grubauer and Cale Makar will all need new deals in the summer of 2021. Obviously there is time to handle those negotiations even if Rantanen gets a big deal, but locking him into “Marner money” won’t be the outcome here.

Latest On Patrik Laine, Mikko Rantanen

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When the Mitch Marner saga came to an end, some believed that it would move along some of the other restricted free agent negotiations around the league. That may not be the case for two Finnish forwards, who are currently training overseas. Mikko Rantanen and Patrik Laine are both practicing with SC Bern of the Swiss NLA, and don’t appear close to new deals with the Colorado Avalanche and Winnipeg Jets respectively. In fact, their agent Mike Liut joined Sportsnet radio this morning and talked about the negotiations, bluntly stating that they’re “not close” on either player. Liut went on to draw comparisons for one of his clients to Marner:

I think that Mitch Marner and Mikko Rantanen are probably the two closest comparables in terms of how they play the game. Where you have wingers that are adept at creating offense for those that they’re playing with. They do it maybe a little bit differently. Mikko’s 225 (lbs) and Mitch is not, but Mitch is a carrier and a great player. The Leafs have really looked into the future. You’re going to have a salary cap at $81.5MM, there’s no growth factor, one half of one percent. History has shown what the league does on a year-over-year basis, it’s going to 2.5% revenue growth.

Your top line, your top three players whether they’re defensemen or forwards are going to be in that range that the Leafs have created.

Liut also discussed how teams are going to have to roll through players on a more constant basis in order to keep their top players paid. Laine and Rantanen both certainly want to be compensated like top players, and it’s easy to see why. Laine has scored 110 goals in his three-year career, one of the highest rates in the league thanks to his incredible shot and ability to float away from traffic at the right time. Though his overall point totals declined sharply last season, goal-scorers are rewarded handsomely in the NHL and Laine should be no different.

Rantanen meanwhile has become one of the most impressive offensive players in the league, recording 171 points over the last two seasons. While some of that is because of his time with Nathan MacKinnon, there’s no doubting Rantanen’s talent. The tenth overall pick from 2015, Rantanen stands 6’4″ but has the puck skills and playmaking ability often associated with much smaller players. Even in the playoffs where young players often struggle, the Colorado forward led his club with 14 points in 12 games and was a force on the ice on almost every shift. If his camp truly sees a direct comparison to Marner, they must be looking for a pretty big raise. The Toronto Maple Leafs forward recently signed a six-year deal worth more than $65MM, putting him among the top handful of salaries ($10.893MM AAV) in the NHL.

While both are practicing overseas at the moment, Liut downplayed the idea that either one would sign with a European club even if the contract included an NHL-out clause. That should settle some nerves in Colorado and Winnipeg, but if contracts aren’t close at this point there should be real concern that the Finns will miss a good chunk of training camp or perhaps even the start of the regular season.

Snapshots: Juulsen, Rantanen, Gust

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The Montreal Canadiens have announced some troubling news regarding young defenseman Noah Juulsen, who is planning on consulting a specialist for his ongoing headaches. Juulsen just can’t seem to stay healthy long enough to take a real step forward in his development, having missed all but 24 games at any level last season after taking two pucks to the face in November.

Originally drafted 26th overall in 2015, the former WHL standout has actually only played in a total of 80 games as a professional and seems to still be facing symptoms that could put the start of his season in jeopardy. Even if he does get them sorted out quickly the team now has eight NHL defensemen on the roster and more coming up the pipeline. While Juulsen could likely pass over names like Karl Alzner and Christian Folin quickly, he’ll have to get healthy to even give himself a chance.

  • After another report recently that the Colorado Avalanche and Mikko Rantanen are not close to a deal, it looks like he’s found another unsigned RFA to spend some time with. According to a report out of Finland, Rantanen will join Patrik Laine with SC Bern of the Swiss NLA to train until things are resolved. Rantanen also played in the 2016 World Championship under Bern head coach Kari Jalonen, where Laine earned tournament MVP honors and the Finns took home a silver medal.
  • Even though most minor league rosters are set at this point and just waiting for training camp cuts from their NHL affiliates, the Charlotte Checkers aren’t done adding depth. The team signed Dave Gust to an AHL deal today, bringing in the former Ohio State star to give them another option up front. The 25-year old Gust has played the last two seasons with the Bakersfield Condors, scoring 33 points in 59 games last year.

Avalanche Notes: Rantanen, Annunen, Zadorov

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Things are all quiet between the Colorado Avalanche and Mikko Rantanen according to Adrian Dater of Colorado Hockey Now, who tweets that there has been “little to no talk” over the last week. There was a prevailing thought in the hockey world that once Mitch Marner signed with the Toronto Maple Leafs there would be some kind of movement with the other restricted free agents, but that’s not necessarily the case in Colorado. Rantanen compares pretty well to Marner after scoring 171 points over the last two seasons, but it is hard to imagine Avalanche GM Joe Sakic was happy when he saw the six-year, $65MM deal come across the wire from Toronto.

Nathan MacKinnon, Colorado’s best player, is making averaging just $6.3MM over the final four years of his contract, making it tough to see the Avalanche hand out nearly twice that amount to Rantanen even with his strong performances to date. The 22-year old Finn will almost certainly become the team’s highest-paid player however if he signs any long-term deal, just how high the Avalanche are willing to go is unclear. Colorado has plenty of cap space for this season, but has to worry about potential extensions for Gabriel Landeskog, Philipp Grubauer and Cale Makar in two years.

  • They won’t have to worry about Justus Annunen for a while however, as the goaltending prospect has signed a two-year extension in Finland that keeps him under contract through 2021-22. While that doesn’t necessarily guarantee Annunen won’t be coming to North America during that time—the NHL does have a transfer agreement with Liiga—it certainly makes remaining overseas a strong possibility. The 19-year old was selected in the third round in 2018 and would see his draft rights expire on June 1, 2022. Annunen was brilliant in his first game for Karpat this season, stopping 23 of 25 shots for a win against HPK.
  • Nikita Zadorov escaped major injury when he left the ice early yesterday and head coach Jared Bednar told reporters including Ryan S. Clark of The Athletic that it is just a lower-body “tweak.” Zadorov is considered day-to-day. It is a big season for Zadorov as he approaches restricted free agency next summer, needing to prove that he can be a top-four option for this team over the long haul.

RFA Profile: Mikko Rantanen

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Avalanche winger Mikko Rantanen is now the top remaining restricted free agent following the signings of quite a few players around the league over the past few days.  While it’s possible that those moves could get the ball rolling on a new deal for him, the likelier scenario at this point is that it doesn’t.  Here is a look at Rantanen’s situation.

The 22-year-old is coming off his second straight season with over 80 points, a feat that not many players have reached in recent years.  He also played quite well in the postseason where he led the team in scoring with 14 points in a dozen games.  As far as offensive production goes, there aren’t many real comparable players out there.

One element that Colorado may try to use against him in talks is how much offensive zone starts he had last season.  Their top line all saw heavy usage in the offensive end but none more than Rantanen.  His career OZ% rate is higher than quite a few of the players that could be considered as comparables.  There was a time where teammate Nathan MacKinnon’s $6.3MM AAV was set as the ideal ceiling for the whole team but let’s face it, that’s not going to happen.  He’s a player with two high-end seasons under his belt and is still viewed as having some upside.  He’s going to get a substantial contract that is well past MacKinnon’s.

Statistics

2018-19: 74 GP, 31-56-87, +13, 54 PIMS, 193 shots, 20:51 ATOI
Career: 230 GP, 80-129-209, -19, 112 PIMS, 513 shots, 18:53 ATOI

Comparables

Leon Draisaitl (Edmonton) – His placement here is basically to establish the floor for this contract.  Like Rantanen, they’re both viewed as the second-best offensive threat on their respective teams and while Draisaitl played the premium position (he was mostly a center at the time), Rantanen outscored him by a fair margin in each of their two full NHL seasons.

Platform Year Stats: 82 GP, 29-48-77, +7, 20 PIMS, 172 shots, 18:53 ATOI
Career Stats at ELC Expiration: 191 GP, 50-87-137, -12, 44 PIMS, 354 shots, 17:22 ATOI

Contract: Eight years, $68MM
Cap Hit Percentage: 11.33%
Current Equivalent: Eight years, $73.87MM ($9.23MM AAV)

Jack Eichel (Buffalo) – This is a contract that Rantanen’s camp will undoubtedly point to as a benchmark deal.  Eichel hadn’t reached the 70-point mark in any of his ELC years, something that Rantanen easily surpassed twice.  Yes, Eichel plays the tougher position and has the better draft pedigree but there is a good case to be made that Rantanen deserves more than this contract.

Platform Year Stats: 67 GP, 25-39-64, -25, 32 PIMS, 246 shots, 20:09 ATOI
Career Stats at ELC Expiration: 209 GP, 73-104-177, -54, 76 PIMS, 743 shots, 19:41 ATOI

Contract: Eight years, $80MM
Cap Hit Percentage: 13.33%
Current Equivalent: Eight years, $86.91MM ($10.86MM AAV)

Steven Stamkos (Tampa Bay) – I’m focusing on his post-ELC deal, not his current one.  (Since Rantanen is coming off his entry-level pact, all of the comparable contracts are also post-ELC ones.)  He went with a shorter deal to get to UFA eligibility quicker.  Stamkos, a number one overall pick, also outscored Rantanen in each season (though Rantanen’s point per game pace was a little higher than Stamkos’ platform season).  While the RFA market has improved since 2011, this deal (in today’s dollars) should be considered the ceiling of a medium-term contract.

Platform Year Stats: 82 GP, 45-46-91, +3, 74 PIMS, 272 shots, 20:12 ATOI
Career Stats at ELC Expiration: 243 GP, 119-113-232, -12, 151 PIMS, 750 shots, 18:36 ATOI

Contract: Five years, $37.5MM
Cap Hit Percentage: 11.66%
Current Equivalent: Five years, $47.51MM ($9.502MM AAV)

Mitch Marner (Toronto) – The obvious one is saved for last.  Many expected Marner’s deal to basically be a comparable as soon as it was signed and there’s little reason to think it won’t be.  Marner is a bit more of a playmaker than Rantanen and they play different styles but they’re both very productive wingers so the money is going to be pretty close one way or the other.

Platform Year Stats: 82 GP, 26-68-94, +22, 22 PIMS, 233 shots, 19:49 ATOI
Career Stats at ELC Expiration: 241 GP, 67-157-224, +21, 81 PIMS, 603 shots, 17:41 ATOI

Contract: Six years, $65.358MM
Cap Hit Percentage: 13.37%

Projected Contract

GM Joe Sakic has made it known that his preference would be to get a long-term deal done.  However, the appetite probably won’t be there at the rate it would take to get a max-term contract in place.  The Avalanche have the salary cap space to make such a move but with some of their other players that will be needing new deals a couple years from now, a slightly lesser term will give them a bit more flexibility down the road.

With that in mind, a two or three-year bridge deal likely isn’t on the table as well.  Those can be justifiable when a team is in a cap crunch but that isn’t the case here.  Four years walks him to unrestricted free agency so that’s off the table as well.

As a result, five or six years could very well be the happy medium.  If it’s five years, it should check in slightly below the $9.502MM current year equivalent for Stamkos’ deal.  On a six-year pact and a second UFA year included, the AAV should jump a little past the $10MM mark.  There’s a valid argument to have him in Marner’s territory but Colorado’s cap situation compared to Toronto’s gives the Avalanche a bit more leverage than what the Maple Leafs had as they couldn’t let Marner’s case drag out into the season and make the first year AAV higher than they could afford even with LTIR.  That should be enough to keep Rantanen’s price tag a little lower in the end.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Western Notes: Leschyshyn, Nurse, Sekera

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The Colorado Avalanche and Joe Sakic have brought in another former NHL player into the fold to work in the organization. Colorado Hockey Now’s Adrian Dater reports that the Avalanche have hired Curtis Leschyshyn as a pro scout.

Leschyshyn, 49, started his career with the organization, playing for the Quebec Nordiques for the first seven years and then moving with the team to Colorado when they became the Avalanche. He played one full season in Colorado before being traded in his second year in the city. The former blueliner, played more than 1,000 games (1,033) and scored 47 goals and 212 points.

  • Jim Matheson of the Edmonton Journal reports that Edmonton Oilers general manager Ken Holland isn’t ready to talk about an extension with Oilers’ defenseman Darnell Nurse yet. The GM said he wants to get more familiar with his team and what he has before committing to a player. Nurse has one year remaining on his two-year, $6.4MM deal he signed last year. The 24-year-old stepped up last season and had a breakout deal, posting career highs in goals (10) and points (41). The blueliner will be a restricted free agent again in 2020-21. Matheson writes that the contract that Josh Morrissey signed with Winnipeg at eight years and $50MM could be a template for Nurse.
  • The Dallas Stars made quite a few headlines this summer when they went out and signed Joe Pavelski and Corey Perry this summer to free-agent contracts. However, one signing that flew somewhat under the radar was the team signing defenseman Andrej Sekera. The 33-year-old blueliner has dealt with injuries the past couple of years while in Edmonton, but was their top shutdown defender before being beset by injuries. Due to his extravagant contract, the Oilers opted to buy him out, making him a free agent. NHL.com’s Mike Heika writes that Sekera is drawing rave reviews, however, in training camp so far and it looks like the veteran will be paired with 20-year-old Miro Heiskanen on Dallas’ second pairing on defense. “I actually think he’s going to be the one guy who is going to be a surprise,” said Stars general manager Jim Nill. “You talk about Perry and Pavelski, I think people are going to be surprised with what he brings to us.”

Central Notes: Spurgeon, Koivu, Thomas, Avalanche, Copp

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The Minnesota Wild announced earlier today they signed Jared Spurgeon to a seven-year, $53MM extension that will kick in during the 2020-21 season. The Athletic’s Michael Russo reports that Spurgeon’s deal has a no movement clause this year as well as the first four years of the first contract. After that, Spurgeon has a 10-team modified no-trade clause for the final three years, which will kick in during the 2024-25 season.

  • Sticking with the Wild, Minnesota got some good news about injured forward Mikko Koivu, who had surgery to repair a torn ACL back in February. The 36-year-old, who was expected to be eased back into practices and scrimmages in training camp, told coach Bruce Boudreau that he’s ready and is expected to participate in scrimmages on Monday, according to StarTribune’s Sarah McLellan. Koivu was cleared for practice on Thursday, but now looks like he’s ready for full play. He scored eight goals and 29 points in 47 games last season before going down with the knee injury.
  • NHL.com’s Lou Korac reports that the St. Louis Blues have been without forward Robert Thomas for a second straight day as he recovers from offseason surgery to repair a tendon in his left wrist. He and Jordan Kyrou, out with a knee injury, are expected to be brought back slowly from their injuries. “We’ve got them in that third group right now,” Blues head coach Craig Berube said. “We’ve got to be a little cautious with them right now.”
  • BSN Denver’s A.J. Haefele writes that Colorado Avalanche head coach Jared Bednar had quite a few positive to point out after Day 2 of training camp. Bednar pointed out quite a bit of improvement in the play of winger Andre Burakovsky and the standout play of A.J. Greer and the impressive leaderships skills of Pierre-Edouard Bellemare. He also said that he believes that the next step for defenseman Samuel Girard is his offensive game. The 21-year-old scored four goals and 27 points last season. While both were career highs, Bednar would like to see those numbers rise this season.
  • The Athletic’s Ken Wiebe reports that the Winnipeg Jets are without a few player at the moment. The team has been without forward Andrew Copp due to a minor groin injury, while Kristian Vesalainen and Sami Niku were stiff Saturday after being in a fender-bender on Friday. They should return soon.

 

Snapshots: Red Wings, Blues, RFAs

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The Detroit Red Wings will operate without a captain once again this season, despite the expectation that Dylan Larkin will one day assume the role. Head coach Jeff Blashill told reporters including Ansar Khan of MLive that they will instead start with four alternates: Larkin, Justin Abdelkader, Frans Nielsen and Luke Glendening. Blashill and Steve Yzerman agreed to wait until the GM got to know the entire team better after taking over this offseason.

Larkin, 23, has become the face of the Red Wings franchise after putting up a career-high 32 goals and 73 points last season. As the old guard including Henrik Zetterberg, Pavel Datsyuk and recently Niklas Kronwall have moved on from their roles on the Red Wings, Larkin and other young players have taken on more and more responsibility. As the team transitions from rebuilding to contending over the next few years it seems likely that someone will eventually wear the “C” for Blashill and Yzerman, just not yet.

  • The St. Louis Blues are finalizing extensions for Steve Ott and David Alexander according to Jim Thomas of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. The pair of assistant coaches will be given extensions that match the length of head coach Craig Berube, who was given a three-year deal earlier this summer. The coaching staff under Berube completed a miracle turnaround this season with the Blues, taking them from last place in the NHL to Stanley Cup champions in just a few months.
  • Andy Strickland of Fox Sports Midwest has heard a few things on restricted free agents Patrik Laine and Mikko Rantanen, including about a recent short-term offer from the Winnipeg Jets to the former. The deal presented to Laine was in the “$5MM per year range” though Strickland notes that even on that short-term deal the Jets will “need to come up on money.” For Rantanen, Strickland reports that the free agent forward is not far away in terms of salary with the Colorado Avalanche and that the team’s last offer “blew past Nathan MacKinnon’s $6.3MM AAV.”

Minor Transactions: 09/12/19

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Training camp is upon us and physicals are underway for all players under contract. Yet, many NHL clubs still have work to do, with prominent restricted and unrestricted free agents still without deals for the 2019-20 season. Minor league affiliates, European teams, and college programs are also still making moves to finalize their plans for the coming season. Keep track of those minor transactions right here:

  • Colin Campbell will be in Colorado Avalanche training camp on a professional tryout after spending the first several seasons of his career with the Grand Rapids Griffins. The 28-year old forward was part of the 2017 Calder Cup squad and scored 19 points in 63 games last season.
  • Daniel Audette won’t be back with the Laval Rocket this season, instead signing an AHL contract with the Springfield Thunderbirds according to Stephane Leroux of RDS. A former first-overall QMJHL pick, the undersized Audette has never been able to turn his immense offensive skill into an NHL opportunity. He recorded 39 points in 71 games with the Rocket last season.
  • The Toronto Maple Leafs will have Brandon Halverson in training camp on a professional tryout, the second goaltender to take a PTO with the team along with Michal Neuvirth. Halverson has spent the last three seasons bouncing between the AHL and ECHL in the New York Rangers system, but went unqualified this summer and became an unrestricted free agent.

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