These Pending UFAs Mishandled Their Prior Trips Through Free Agency

In the NHL, some players welcome the chance to bet on themselves when it comes to unrestricted free agency. But not every player likes taking that risk, because there is always the possibility that the bet doesn’t pay off or that the player and their representatives misjudge the market and miss out on a payday. Sometimes, these players land big contracts later in their careers, and that is the hope for the three players in this article, who are approaching free agency again this summer and have another chance to learn from their previous attempts and finally cash in.

The first player on this list and one of the most recent is Chicago Blackhawks defenceman Matt Grzelcyk, who had to settle for a PTO this past offseason after his market never materialized despite coming off a career year. Grzelcyk posted a goal and 39 assists last season, playing all 82 games with the Pittsburgh Penguins, and was projected by AFP Analytics to receive a three-year deal worth $3.77MM annually. However, he ended up with a PTO and eventually signed a one-year, $1MM deal.

It was clearly a massive disappointment for the 32-year-old, and it’s hard to say exactly what transpired in his negotiations. His market did not develop as expected, and his contract fell well below the projected market value. Nonetheless, it should have been evident to Grzelcyk’s representatives that his market probably wouldn’t be very strong after the Penguins were unable to trade him at last year’s trade deadline. Grzelcyk remained in Pittsburgh after the deadline despite the team being well out of the playoff picture at that point, which suggested that teams weren’t exactly eager to add him. In any case, Grzelcyk is a free agent once again this summer after a disappointing campaign with the Blackhawks, and it’s fair to wonder if he will get a multi-year deal this offseason. AFP Analytics has him pegged for a two-year deal worth $2.8MM per season, but that may be a touch optimistic given his struggles this year.

Another player who struggled to secure a contract last summer was forward Jack Roslovic. The then 28-year-old was coming off a solid year with Carolina, where he scored 22 goals and 17 assists in 81 games. While his scoring stats looked decent, Roslovic was not exactly a seamless fit with the Hurricanes and benefited from a 15.8% shooting rate, about 3% higher than his career average. For the second consecutive summer, it seemed Roslovic misjudged the free agent market but didn’t land as softly in 2024 as he did in Carolina. In summer 2024, Roslovic signed with the Hurricanes on July 4 for $2.8MM on a one-year deal, serving as a cautionary tale for players hitting the market in 2025. Roslovic was one of those players, and unfortunately for him, his luck was much worse this time, as he had to settle for another one-year deal with the Edmonton Oilers, this time for $1.5MM.

Roslovic was projected last summer to sign a three-year deal worth $4.094MM, making his contract just over 10% of his projected earnings. He eventually changed agents and signed a one-year contract, setting himself up to hit free agency again. This summer, AFP Analytics predicts he could land a four-year deal worth $4.434MM per season, and it seems more likely this will happen given his new agent and the rising salary cap, while the free-agent class remains very thin.

Now we come to John Klingberg of the San Jose Sharks, who just a few years ago was a top-pairing defenseman with the Dallas Stars and helped lead them to the Stanley Cup Finals in 2020. Back in 2021, much of the conversation around Klingberg centered on his impending free agency, and he and the Dallas Stars were engaged in contract talks to keep him in Dallas long term. At the time, Klingberg reportedly wanted over $60MM on an eight-year contract, which would have him around an $8MM AAV, and while some sources said he turned down $7MM a season, he never came close to reaching those numbers on his eventual contracts and never even sniffed that kind of long-term security.

Klingberg finally reached free agency in 2022 and had to settle for a one-year $7MM contract with the Anaheim Ducks, then followed it up with a one-year $4.15MM deal with Toronto. Last season, he played part of the year under a one-year $1.35MM contract with the Edmonton Oilers before signing a one-year $4MM deal this season in San Jose. Regardless of what the contract discussions were like with Dallas, Klingberg left tens of millions of dollars on the table and could have avoided the stress of moving teams five times. Additionally, he went from a low-tax state like Texas to high-tax states and provinces such as California and Ontario.

The NHL is full of cautionary tales regarding free agency. For example, defenseman Cody Franson is a case from a decade ago, and Thomas Vanek is another. More recent examples include Anthony Duclair and Evan Rodrigues, who eventually secured their contracts after a few seasons of uncertainty. This summer, players like Grzelcyk, Roslovic, and Klingberg hope to cash in and recover some of the money they left on the table. The salary cap is expected to rise, which should benefit them, but none of these players have performed at their best this season, so they may face another challenging period in free agency.