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The Stars Are Facing A Cap Crunch

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The NHL salary cap is set to rise significantly for the first time since before the pandemic-shortened seasons, which will be welcome news for contending teams that are facing a cap crunch. Despite the increase, several teams will still have significant work to do to be cap-compliant by the time NHL training camps open in September. Most of these teams remain in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, and that is where the Dallas Stars come in.

The Stars are one of the favorites to win the Stanley Cup this year, and no doubt are fine with their upcoming salary cap predicament. Dallas will have just $5.873MM in salary cap space entering this summer and have just 15 players signed in that projection (as per PuckPedia). The Stars will need to make some tough decisions to remain under the salary cap, but the good news is that most of their pending UFAs are in their mid-30s, and they have just a couple of RFAs to sign who won’t break the bank. Positive news aside, a couple of the Stars’ UFAs will be ones they likely want to keep, and they will have to move out significant salary if they hope to do so.

Matt Duchene has been an excellent fit for Dallas after playing under back-to-back one-year $3MM contracts. The likelihood that he does this again is slim, but he might enjoy the fit so much that he offers another discount. There are several caveats regarding Duchene’s pending free agency, the first being that he is still being paid handsomely by the Nashville Predators after he was bought out two seasons ago. Duchene is set to be paid over $6.5MM by the Predators next season as part of his buyout, so he may be inclined to sign a similar deal and take a total $9.5MM package.

The other caveat is that the buyout drops to just $1.5MM in the 2026-27 season and the 2027-28 season, meaning that Duchene will look at a significant drop in total salary. This, coupled with Duchene’s age (34) and his terrific production this season (30 goals and 52 assists in 82 games), could mean that he sees this summer as his final chance to cash in. If he doesn’t, the Stars might not be able to bring him back, even if he offers a discount on his market value.

The Stars will also have to deal with long-time veteran Jamie Benn, a pending UFA. Benn is no longer the power forward he was in his prime, but he can still put up points at even strength and has value in that he rarely misses games and can offer a veteran presence. This past season, the 35-year-old tallied 16 goals and 33 assists in 82 games, and while those numbers are respectable, they are a far cry from how he used to produce back when he won the Art Ross Trophy in 2014-15.

That being said, most players fall off in their 30s. It’s no surprise that this has happened to Benn, but he can still produce at five-on-five, and there is value in him remaining with the Stars if they can find cap space and opt to bring him back. Benn is completing the final season of an eight-year contract that paid him $9.5MM annually, and he said in October that he intended to play out his contract and see where things go (as per TSN), but the Stars have expressed interest in retaining him. AFP Analytics is projecting a two-year deal for Benn at $4.8MM per season, which would take up nearly all of Dallas’ remaining cap space and only allow them to sign one more player at the league minimum. They’ll need to move out salary to retain Benn or let him walk into free agency.

The Stars must also contend with forward Evgenii Dadonov’s free agency as the 36-year-old is set to hit the market as a UFA. Dadonov had an off year during the 2023-24 season but bounced back this year with 20 goals and 20 assists in 80 games. The veteran will likely seek a two-year deal, and AFP Analytics has him projected to earn a two-year contract in the range of $3.25MM annually, making it challenging for Dallas to slot him into their salary cap ledger.

So, what can the Stars do? Well, if they hope to bring back any of these three men, they will likely need to find a way to move on from a player such as Tyler Seguin and his $9.85MM cap hit or move out a combination of veterans such as Matt Dumba ($3.75MM) and Mason Marchment ($4.5MM).

Seguin would be a difficult player to trade, as only a handful of teams could afford to take on his salary, and those teams are unlikely to be ones for which Seguin would waive his no-movement clause (NMC). Seguin has two years left on his contract and is still productive when he can play. This past year, he was limited to just 20 games, but he still managed to pile up nine goals and 12 assists. In contrast, last year, when he was in better health, he scored 25 goals and added 27 assists in 68 games. Seguin is 33 and no longer an All-Star, but he remains a solid top-six player that Dallas will want to (and have to) hang onto.

The most likely moves involve moving on from several veterans. The aforementioned Dumba is a good candidate to move as he has no trade protection, and right-shot defensemen are always in demand. Dumba had a decent season with the Stars in sheltered minutes and could draw some trade interest even though he’s been a healthy scratch in the playoffs thus far. The Stars could certainly replace what Dumba does by committee, as they have Lian Bichsel ready to make the jump to the NHL full-time, and although he is a left-shot defender, the Stars could shift some bodies around to make it work. They are already using Alex Petrovic over Dumba in these playoffs, so cutting that cost would be a big move to get under the cap and bring a veteran back into the fold on an extension.

Beyond Dumba and Seguin is where the Stars’ options become murky. Sure, they could look at Marchment as he has one year left on his contract, but given that he can play top-six minutes and brings a lot to the table, the Stars might not have an appetite to move him while they are trying to contend.

Whatever happens in Dallas, the Stars will look different next season, but it’s unlikely that they care now. The Stars will remain contenders next season even if they let all their veteran UFAs walk, as they have a young core in their prime that is under contract and set to continue their strong play.

Photo by Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

The Kings Have Work To Do To Take The Next Step

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For the fourth consecutive season, the Los Angeles Kings were bounced from the opening round of the playoffs by the Edmonton Oilers. This year felt like the Kings’ best chance to turn their fortunes finally, and it certainly seemed likely after the Kings took a 2-0 series lead. But they would go on to lose four straight games, and in the end, the result was all too familiar. The Kings will have a lot to evaluate this summer, from management to coaching to the players donning the jerseys; everything will be on the table for a team that hasn’t advanced past the first round of the playoffs since winning the Stanley Cup in 2014.

The Kings were far from a perfectly built team but had a strong season, finishing as the second seed in the Pacific Division with a 48-25-9 record. The team struggled to hold leads, which ultimately proved to be their downfall, particularly the blown opportunities in Games 3 and 4 of the Oilers series. The primary reason for these blown leads was a lack of depth, as the Kings were forced to rely on their top nine forwards and top four defensemen almost exclusively, and the bottom of their lineup lacked effectiveness. This obvious issue falls on management, which couldn’t address a clear concern at the bottom of the lineup.

Speaking of management, the future of the Kings’ general manager, Rob Blake, was very much in question, but many Kings pundits believed that Blake and head coach Jim Hiller would stick around for next season. Yet, Blake and the Kings mutually agreed to part ways this week, marking the end of a run as GM that had both hits and misses. Blake took over from former GM Dean Lombardi a day after the 2016-17 season ended, previously serving as an assistant GM. He did not win a playoff series during his eight-year tenure and had no contract for the upcoming season. He was supposed to build the Kings into a team that could challenge for the Stanley Cup, but some questionable decisions left the Kings as more of a pretender than a contender.

Blake undoubtedly made some terrific trades, notably the Jake Muzzin trade with the Toronto Maple Leafs, which netted Los Angeles Sean Durzi, Carl Grundstrom, and a first-round pick. Another notable piece of work by Blake was the trade with Toronto for Jack Campbell, which included Trevor Moore and two third-round picks. There have been other solid moves, but the trade and extension for Pierre-Luc Dubois and some other poor salary cap management have overshadowed them.

Behind the bench, Kings fans will likely hope that the team moves on from Hiller, whose system has made the Kings look like a team playing not to lose rather than a club playing to win. Los Angeles would do well to hire a coach who can operate a creative offense that prioritizes high-pressure forechecking, such as Mike Sullivan. Unfortunately for the Kings, he has already been plucked out of free agency by the New York Rangers. Other options are available, but Los Angeles should move quickly if they plan to hire a new bench boss.

On the ice, the Kings will have some salary cap space available this summer, with roughly $23.27MM and just four players to sign. UFA defenseman Vladislav Gavrikov is one of those players who will eat close to a quarter of the space if he re-signs. Forward Alex Laferriere will also need a new deal, but shouldn’t break the bank. Should that happen, the Kings would have approximately $15MM available and just a couple of players to sign.

So, what should they do with the cap space? Upgrading their fourth-line and bottom defensive pairing is a must. The Kings bled chances with their fourth line on the ice this season, and it was a revolving door that was not addressed, ultimately costing them when the games mattered most. Fixing that issue is paramount; the fix isn’t necessarily complicated or expensive. The Kings need more forwards who can contribute offensively, which could push some of their third-liners down the lineup, thus creating a better overall forward group.

In the playoffs, the Kings’ fourth line mainly consisted of Alex Turcotte, Jeff Malott, Trevor Lewis, and Samuel Helenius. Of those players, only Turcotte averaged more than five minutes of ice time per game, highlighting an apparent roster construction flaw that put too much pressure on the top nine and ultimately wore the forwards down as the games continued.

On the back end, Brandt Clarke, Jordan Spence and Jacob Moverare played most of the Kings’ bottom pairing minutes, with just Clarke breaking the 10-minute per-game mark by averaging 12:47 of ice time per game. Clarke is part of the Kings’ solution on the bottom pairing and should improve from the experience, but finding a solid defensive partner for him would go a long way to buttoning up the defensive issues that plagued Los Angeles in the playoffs.

The Kings will likely run back the bulk of their core next season while trying to infuse a few younger players into the lineup and elevate them. It won’t be music to the ears of fans who are calling for radical changes. Still, given the salary cap corner the Kings are painted into with some of their long-term deals, it would be difficult to imagine a complete overhaul, especially when the team has been preaching about being “right there” for several years. The Blake move is a start for Los Angeles, and it will be interesting to see what other moves they make as they try to take the next step.

Photo by Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Predators’ Barry Trotz Needs To Have A Much Better Summer

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Nashville Predators general manager Barry Trotz had an illustrious career behind the bench as a head coach, winning a Stanley Cup in 2018 with the Washington Capitals and accumulating many other accolades. He was also the first and longest-tenured coach in the Predators’ history.

But his short time in Nashville as a GM has been eventful, to say the least. Trotz had orchestrated a significant roster turnover that resulted in one of the worst teams in the NHL this season, despite major free agent signings less than a year ago. Given all that has gone on and the direction of the Predators, it is fair to wonder if he is on the hot seat.

Trotz started his reign in Nashville by moving out considerable salaries in Matt Duchene and Ryan Johansen, who both made $8MM annually on long-term deals signed by the previous management regime led by longtime GM David Poile. Johansen was traded to Colorado, with Nashville retaining half of his cap hit ($4MM) while Duchene was bought out, resulting in a cap charge for the next season of $6.55MM.

Trotz used the cap space to retool his roster in the summer of 2023, signing Ryan O’Reilly to a four-year deal worth $18MM and inking Gustav Nyquist and Luke Schenn to multi-year deals in free agency. The initial results were solid as the Predators made the playoffs in Trotz’s first year at the helm and were bounced in the first round. Overall, it was a good albeit unspectacular first year of work as a GM for Trotz, but that is where things began to go off the rails.

If you looked strictly at the trades Nashville made with the Pittsburgh Penguins over the past year, it would be enough to question the Predators’ direction. But there were signings and moves outside those that have already aged poorly, which may hurt the team for years. Trotz traded Cody Glass to the Penguins last August, along with a third and sixth-round draft pick, for Jordan Frasca, a prospect who might not even be an AHLer at this point.

The move was a salary dump after the Predators’ shopping spree on July 1 that saw them sign Steven Stamkos, Brady Skjei and Jonathan Marchessault to lucrative long-term deals. Glass was owed one more year on his contract at $2.5MM. The Penguins were happy to take that on and flipped him at the NHL Trade Deadline to New Jersey for another third-round pick and two prospects. The trade tree must make one wonder what exactly Trotz thought last August.

Of course, the Philip Tomasino trade to Pittsburgh for a fourth-round pick looks like a massive win for the Penguins. Tomasino didn’t light up the score sheet, but he seems like a solid top-nine piece for the Penguins’ retool. The 23-year-old was the Predators’ 2019 first-round pick (24th overall) and had a terrific rookie season in Nashville, posting 11 goals and 21 assists in 76 games in 2021-22. However, after two uneven seasons, Trotz opted to move on and sent Tomasino to the Penguins. After arriving in Pittsburgh, the Mississauga, Ontario native tallied 11 goals and 12 assists in 50 games. He doesn’t look like a superstar, but he should be a promising young player for the Pens.

Finally, there is the trade deadline acquisition of Michael Bunting from Pittsburgh. The Predators moved Thomas Novak and Luke Schenn for Bunting and a fourth-round pick. The trade was puzzling at first, but then a day later, Pittsburgh flipped Schenn out for a second and fourth-round pick, and it became clear what their motive was. They added a younger (possibly more effective) player in Novak and a second-round pick, which was icing on the cake.

These trades with Pittsburgh show Trotz’s inexperience as a GM and indicate he should probably block Kyle Dubas’ phone number before this summer. The player evaluation from the Nashville side has got to be troublesome for fans as they struggle to comprehend that series of moves. But that wasn’t all that went wrong in Trotz’s second year on the job.

The aforementioned free agent spending spree on July 1, 2024, made a lot of waves around the NHL. Nashville handed Stamkos a four-year deal for $8MM per season, Skjei got $7MM annually on a seven-year contract, and Marchessault received a $5.5MM AAV for five seasons. None of those moves in a vacuum were terrible signings, although paying three players on the wrong side of 30 a total of $20.5MM annually is hard to digest. The thought process made sense, given that Nashville has a lot of draft pick capital, but the free agent signings failed to gel in Nashville, and the result was one of the worst seasons in franchise history.

Trotz hasn’t been without his solid moves. He hasn’t been afraid to undo prior mistakes or move on from players he’s acquired if they aren’t working in Nashville. That ability to adjust on the fly and course correct will come in handy and could be the tool that helps Trotz pivot if next season goes off the rails like last year did.

Now, much of Trotz’s future will depend on the upcoming season. If Stamkos, Skjei and Marchessault can find their respective games and lead Nashville back to contention, all will be forgotten, and Trotz will continue as Predators GM. Still, if they have a year like the previous one, and Trotz makes moves similar to the transactions over the last 12 months, Nashville may have to pivot and reimagine their roster under new management.

Photo by Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

These Players Could Benefit From A Change Of Scenery Trade

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The classic change of scenery trade has been around in professional sports for decades and pre-dates salary caps. A change of scenery trade usually occurs when two (or more) teams swap underperforming players relative to their salary, or a single player is moved out for a fresh start elsewhere. In the case of the NHL, the team would make this move to avoid buying out a player or burying them in the minors. The hope is that a different role or a new environment can jumpstart a player’s play and rejuvenate their career. The trade doesn’t always have to involve another player on a bad contract; it can also include a sweetener to entice another team to take on a bad contract or a player to be named later. In any event, teams are gambling on a return to form when they make this transaction, and there is always a risk when trading away an underperforming player or acquiring one.

The list of reasons a team might do it can extend beyond someone’s performance, but that is usually the main driver for the move. Some recent changes in scenery trades include the Milan Lucic for James Neal trade of 2019, when the Edmonton Oilers and Calgary Flames linked up for a rare Alberta trade. Another example is the Oliver Ekman-Larsson trade between Vancouver and Arizona that sent Larsson to the Canucks and Loui Eriksson to the Arizona Coyotes (plus many other pieces).  Finally, a recent change of scenery was between Buffalo and Ottawa at the NHL Trade Deadline when Buffalo swapped Dylan Cozens for Joshua Norris and Jacob Bernard-Docker. Here are the top NHL players who could benefit from a change-of-scenery trade.

First up is Vancouver Canucks forward Elias Pettersson. There might not be any name on this list that sparks more of a response than Pettersson, who just completed the first year of an eight-year $92.8MM extension. The 26-year-old had just 15 goals and 30 assists in 64 games this season and became a lightning rod of criticism for many reasons. Pettersson’s uneven play added fuel to a firestorm that brewed from Pettersson’s deteriorating relationship with former Canucks teammate J.T. Miller. Eventually, Miller was dealt to the Rangers, but at this stage, it might be best for Pettersson and the Canucks if he was moved as well.

A trade of that magnitude will be tough to pull off and would no doubt require the Canucks to either retain (unlikely) or bring significant salary back in the move. The Norris/Cozens swap showed that moving significant money is possible. Still, the Canucks will have to hunt for another team with a player (or players) who need to kickstart their careers with a fresh start in a new organization.

Now, transitioning to Anaheim and forward Trevor Zegras. A few years ago, people were projecting Zegras to become a franchise cornerstone for the Ducks, but those expectations were likely overstated due to the flair with which Zegras was putting up offense. The 24-year-old is undoubtedly talented, but he does too little away from the puck and doesn’t do enough with it these days to make up for his shortcomings. A former ninth-overall pick, Zegras could still be very productive in a different role on a team where he isn’t a focal point.

A team like Pittsburgh might make sense for Zegras, as the Penguins have been stockpiling young, talented forwards who have underperformed and would likely be interested. The problem for the Penguins is that they also have players underperforming under big contracts and might not want to take on another problematic cap hit if they can’t get Zegras to buy in and make the changes necessary to flourish. There are plenty of markets in which Zegras could be a fit, and there should be interest in him if Anaheim opts to move him. Something that would be beneficial for both sides.

Philadelphia Flyers center Sean Couturier is another player who could use a fresh start in a new city. The 32-year-old has been relatively healthy the last few seasons, and while he hasn’t produced the same level of offense as he did earlier in his career, he has become a productive player once again. The issue with Couturier is that he will not live up to his $7.75MM price tag at this stage in his career and will likely never. Even if Couturier were to get back to his previous level of play, he doesn’t fit Philadelphia’s timeline, and his play may not even be at its current level when the team is ready to contend.

A Couturier trade would benefit both the player and the team. Still, it would be a complicated move requiring Philadelphia to eat a large portion of the AAV, something they may not want to do with five years left on the deal and over $36MM in actual cash left on the tab. A team with a strong forward group could look at Couturier as a potential candidate to bounce back if he can play with better players than he has in Philadelphia. Still, he would be an expensive risk even if Philly were to eat a significant portion of his salary.

Next up is defenseman Damon Severson of the Columbus Blue Jackets, who is just two years into an eight-year $50MM deal and has not been a good fit in Columbus. The 30-year-old was once a solid offensive defenseman for the New Jersey Devils but has fallen on hard times in Columbus and was a healthy scratch at times this past season in favor of 38-year-old Jack Johnson. Whether or not anyone wants to admit it, Severson (and his contract) have become an issue for the Blue Jackets.

Perhaps Columbus could link up with a division rival to facilitate a genuine change of scenery trade for another former Devils defenseman who has struggled, Ryan Graves of the Pittsburgh Penguins. Graves also just completed the second year of his contract, a six-year deal with an AAV of $4.5MM. Graves has been an unmitigated disaster for the Penguins, playing under a virtually buyout-proof contract. Since signing with Pittsburgh on July 1st, 2023, Graves has dressed in 131 games and has posted just four goals and 14 assists total. Last year was especially tough as the 29-year-old had just four points in 61 games. Perhaps no one needs a change of scenery more than Graves, and it feels unlikely he will get one anytime soon as Pittsburgh enters another retooling season. The Penguins aren’t going to use assets to get rid of his contract (at this time), which leaves a demotion to the AHL or a trade to another team as the likelier option. A swap for a player like Severson makes sense in theory, but Pittsburgh probably doesn’t have an appetite to take on a bigger cap hit for an older player for a more extended period.

Finally, we have goaltender Tristan Jarry of the Pittsburgh Penguins. Jarry is a former two-time NHL All-Star but has not played remotely close to that level since inking a five-year, $26.88MM contract on July 1st, 2023. The 30-year-old was demoted to the AHL twice this past season but returned at the end to go on a solid run to close out the year. Jarry could benefit from a blank slate more than anyone in the NHL and would be ideally suited to operate with another solid netminder. Jarry’s inconsistency makes it nearly impossible to rely on him as your sole starter, but if he has a safety net, he could regain the form he showed early in his career.

As much as a fresh start would do him some good, Josh Yohe of The Athletic believes there is a very good chance that Jarry starts next season in Pittsburgh, which likely indicates there isn’t a trade market for Jarry’s services now. The Penguins aren’t interested in paying to get rid of his contract, and it may be best to hold on and let him either play out of his funk and get some trade value again or have him tank next season and allow them to get a top draft pick in a strong draft. For Jarry, though, a fresh start would give him room to breathe and remove the pressure of a fan base calling for him to be moved for quite some time.

Photo by Brett Holmes-USA TODAY Sports

Has A Retool Become More Effective Than A Rebuild?

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The question that often arises when a team begins to fall out of its window of contention is, “Should the team rebuild or retool?” Fifteen years ago, most people would have emphatically said ’rebuild,’ and the evidence to support this was overwhelming. The Blackhawks and Penguins had rebuilt their organizations into Stanley Cup champions through top-five draft picks, and the Capitals and Lightning were on course to do the same. The consensus at the time was that becoming a top team required a full-scale teardown and bottoming out for top draft picks before you could rise from the ashes and compete for the Stanley Cup.

Then, something happened in the 2010s: the Maple Leafs, Oilers, and Sabres all tried the “tear-it-down-to-the-studs” approach. They were unable to find much success, and even a team like Tampa Bay took a while to consistently find its playoff footing, despite having several lottery picks in its lineup. There are two schools of thought on this, which all begs the question: is it better to rebuild, or to retool on the fly and try to preserve a winning culture? Defining both terms is essential, so it’s crucial to understand that a rebuild is a complete overhaul of the roster, focusing on developing young talent. A retool involves keeping core players and adding younger, complementary pieces to improve the team quickly.

In the cases of the Sabres and Oilers, their teardowns had profound effects that reverberated throughout the organizations. Buffalo is mired in an NHL-record 14-year playoff absence and doesn’t appear any further along, while it took Edmonton a long time (and Connor McDavid) to shake the stink of nearly a decade in the basement. Both of these teams took the complete rebuild approach, which had largely negative results. The Oilers now have a Cup Final and multiple Conference Final appearances under their belt, but Buffalo has been nothing short of a disaster.

The Sabres have been in a never-ending rebuild since 2012 and haven’t won a playoff series since 2007. The lack of success has created a culture of losing in Buffalo that has undoubtedly impacted the organization from top to bottom. The Sabres have undergone a series of rebuilds and have selected in the top 10 a total of 10 times since 2013, and are poised to do so again this year.

Now, what have they received for those picks? They do have Rasmus Dahlin, who is a terrific building block, and they drafted Jack Eichel and Sam Reinhart with second overall picks in back-to-back seasons. They’ve both gone on to win Stanley Cups in other organizations. However, the problem for the Sabres is that both players became winners in the cities to which they were traded, and Buffalo continued its tradition of losing. Now, you can’t put all the blame on a culture, but you can go back nearly a decade to look at how the Sabres and Oilers were both trying to shake their culture of losing, even then. The Oilers eventually did, reaching the Stanley Cup Final last season. However, it took the best player in the world and another top-five player to do so.

The Oilers took a long time to turn the corner after having incredible draft luck through the 2010s. They drafted in the top four six times between 2010 and 2016, including four first overall picks. All those top picks didn’t lead to immediate success for the Oilers, who took nearly a decade to find any postseason success and did so without many of those above top four picks.

Many recent examples can be cited of teams that have undergone a complete rebuild and struggled to emerge for various reasons. The Senators have only returned to the playoffs this season for the first time since 2017 despite having several top picks, including two top-five picks in one draft. The Utah Hockey Club has also struggled to establish a winning culture, as have the Flyers, who underwent a rebuild in the mid-2010s and are currently experiencing another one.

Losing culture aside, another significant issue for any team looking to undergo a full-scale teardown is that the rules surrounding the NHL Draft Lottery have changed since Edmonton won many top picks, making it more difficult for the NHL’s worst team to retain the first overall draft pick. The rules also stipulated that no team could advance in the draft order by winning a lottery draw more than twice in five years.

There are many reasons why a team might opt for a retool over a complete rebuild. Indeed, market pressures play into it, as evidenced by the Rangers, who quickly shifted from a rebuild to a retool. Ticket sales, corporate sponsorship, ratings, time, and money will always be factors. However, maintaining a team’s culture can be of the utmost importance if a team hopes to get back to winning as soon as possible. Penguins general manager Kyle Dubas expressed this sentiment earlier this year, and it makes sense, particularly in Pittsburgh, where Sidney Crosby has created an expectation of excellence and remains one of the top 10 players in the world.

Rebuilds take a long time, require strong leadership, and rely heavily on luck. You have to hope that your top picks come at a time when the top prospect is a Crosby or McDavid and not a Nail Yakupov, and you have to hope that the player development that you have in place will maximize your prospects’ ability.

To find recent examples of success with a retool, there are numerous instances where this approach has been practical. A rundown of NHL teams currently in the playoffs reveals that many teams have utilized the retool strategy quite effectively. There are no better examples than the top two teams in the NHL this season, the Jets and the Capitals.

The Jets were at a crossroads a few years ago and opted to move on from Pierre-Luc Dubois and Blake Wheeler while extending the contracts of Mark Scheifele and Connor Hellebuyck and retooling their lineup. The Dubois trade was a massive win as Winnipeg could plug Alex Iafallo and Gabriel Vilardi into their lineup, and eventually, they added Nino Niederreiter via trade. The Andrew Copp trade was another solid piece of business that landed Winnipeg a solid depth piece in Morgan Barron and a few draft picks that turned into good prospects. For the most part, the Jets tinkered around the edges of their roster, identifying the core players they wanted to keep, all of which fit the definition of a retool.

The Capitals entered a retool after losing in the first round of the 2022 playoffs. Washington had an aging Stanley Cup-winning core but couldn’t rebuild with Alex Ovechkin still playing at a high level, so they opted to retool. They missed the playoffs in 2023 and barely snuck in last season. But this year, they were a powerhouse after acquiring Dubois, Dylan Strome, Andrew Mangiapane, Rasmus Sandin, Jakob Chychrun, and Logan Thompson over the last few years. The Capitals were able to add this group to their veteran core and supplement it with young, emerging players such as Connor McMichael, Aliaksei Protas, Ivan Miroshnichenko, Hendrix Lapierre, and Ryan Leonard.

This list could continue with St. Louis, Montreal, Los Angeles, and Minnesota, all teams that have undergone varying degrees of retooling, resulting in differing outcomes. A few teams that missed this year’s playoffs have expressed interest in a retool, including Pittsburgh and the Nashville Predators. Both teams have veteran stars on big-money deals and will be looking to insulate them with a solid supporting cast sooner rather than later. It should be interesting to see if the retool becomes the preferred method of building a winner, especially with San Jose and Chicago preparing to exit very long rebuilds.

Photo by Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

What Does Alexandar Georgiev’s Future Look Like?

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Pending UFA goaltender Alexandar Georgiev picked a bad time to post career lows last season. After a December trade, Georgiev spent the end of last season with the San Jose Sharks and concluded a three-year, $10.2MM contract he’d signed with the Colorado Avalanche in 2022. The 29-year-old’s timing could not have been worse from a market perspective, as he went from a goaltender who could have inked a lucrative multi-year deal to a netminder whose future NHL prospects are murky. So, what exactly is Georgiev’s future?

This past season, split between Colorado and San Jose, Georgiev posted the worst numbers of his career with a 15-26-4 record, a .875 SV%, and a 3.71 GAA. His -17.9 goals saved above expected was the second-worst number in the entire NHL (as per MoneyPuck) and is nowhere close to the previous two years in Colorado, where Georgiev had much more success.

In Georgiev’s first season in Colorado (2022-23), he was a workhorse starter and exceeded expectations, registering 21.9 goals saved above expected and a 40-16-6 record with a 2.53 GAA. He appeared to be everything the Avalanche hoped for when they sent three picks to the New York Rangers to acquire him, and Colorado looked poised for a Stanley Cup repeat. Unfortunately for Colorado, they were knocked out of the first round in seven games by the Kraken, through no fault of Georgiev’s, who was solid in that series.

In year two with Colorado, Georgiev showed signs of a potential downfall as his GAA ballooned to 3.02, and his SV% fell to .897. Georgiev remained a workhorse that season, dressing in 62 games, but the warts in his game began to show, eventually leading to the trade this season and a future that isn’t nearly as bright as it once appeared.

The Sharks have already told Georgiev that they will not be offering him an extension, which means he will find a new home for the third time in three years this summer. Now, where that home is and what that role looks like will be revealed in time, but there will be no shortage of options for Georgiev as the free-agent goaltending market is so weak that he might be the best option available.

The ideal scenario for Georgiev would be to find a team that needs a secondary piece in tandem. In a perfect world, that team would be a playoff contender and not a rebuilding club like he found himself last year in San Jose. Georgiev can put up decent numbers, and if he can prove himself to be competent again, he will open the door for multi-year offers next summer.

Georgiev’s history of starting 40-plus games makes him an option of interest for clubs, alongside Jake Allen and Frederik Andersen. Both those men profile as stronger goaltenders at the moment, but Andersen likely shouldn’t play more than 30 games in a season due to injuries, and Allen has been a backup since 2019, although he is an adequate 1B option for a team seeking a tandem. Teams will be interested in Georgiev’s youth compared to other UFAs and his ability to win behind a good team. Georgiev has shown he can get the job done playing behind a strong team, making him a good fit in a place like Carolina or New Jersey should Andersen or Allen depart their respective teams. Many teams need goaltending, meaning Georgiev will likely have multiple offers and options.

Now, what those offers will look like remains to be seen, but given his recent work, it’s safe to say they will come in the form of one-year deals. AFP Analytics is projecting a one-year contract in the range of $2.5MM for Georgiev, which aligns with what Pittsburgh backup Alex Nedeljkovic will also take home next season. AFP used multiple comparables to arrive at that number, with the most recent comp being Ilya Samsonov’s one-year, $1.8MM deal with the Vegas Golden Knights that was signed last summer.

Georgiev probably would have scoffed at a contract offer like that last summer, but this is the unpredictability of the goalie position, and he could be in a very different spot a year from now if he can get back to the form he showed just a few years ago. The NHL is starved for goaltending, and GMs are more than happy to give money to career backups if they can show even a hint of being an average starter. The perfect example is Kevin Lankinen of the Vancouver Canucks, who went from accepting a one-year deal last September for just above the league minimum to signing a five-year extension with the Canucks that will pay him $22.5MM. There are opportunities for Georgiev if he can find a situation that suits his needs and gives him the best chance to re-establish himself as a solid NHL netminder. The future might be murky now, but goaltending is incredibly hard to predict, and lesser goaltenders than Georgiev have gotten back on track after seeing a dip in their play.

Photo by D. Ross Cameron-Imagn Images

These NHL Free Agents Will Get Overpaid This Summer

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July 1 is often when an NHL general manager makes moves that they will regret later, and frequently, they spend years trying to correct them. This summer is no different, as teams will overpay many unrestricted free agents. There is perhaps no better recent example of this than Pittsburgh Penguins GM Kyle Dubas, who has done tremendous work the past two years but hasn’t been able to undo the series of poor moves he made on July 1, 2023, when he signed Tristan Jarry, Ryan Graves and Noel Acciari to long-term deals. Signings such as these can alter the direction of a franchise and hitch the team to financial commitments that haunt them long-term. Last summer’s big free-agent winner was the Nashville Predators, but they quickly discovered that winning in July doesn’t always translate to winning during the season.

This is the first year in some time that there has been a significant increase in the salary cap, with agents and UFAs salivating at the potential dollars they can rein in this summer. The days of skilled veterans settling for one-year deals just above league minimum may become a thing of the past, leading to more free agents signing contracts they could never live up to. Let’s look at the players who will likely get overpaid this summer using AFP Analytics’ projections for 2025-26 cap hits based on next year’s $95.5MM upper limit.

In combing through AFP’s work, a number that jumps out is the projection for Vancouver Canucks forward Brock Boeser. AFP is projecting a seven-year deal worth $9.05MM per year for the 28-year-old, which looks pretty optimistic for a player who has topped 30 goals in a season just once and has only topped the 60-point plateau once. Boeser is not a player who can drive a line by himself; he is a shooter and can also go into slumps at 5-on-5. A cap hit north of $9MM for Boeser would almost certainly become a future buyout like Jeff Skinner’s contract was. Boeser may not get $9MM per, but teams are always in search of scoring, and someone will step up and overpay for his services.

No disrespect to Sam Bennett; he is a terrific player who has become an essential piece of a perennial Stanley Cup contender. But he will likely be overpaid this summer if he decides to leave the Florida Panthers. AFP’s projection is a six-year deal for $6.3MM per season, which seems a little light for Bennett unless he signs in a state with a more favorable income tax structure, such as Florida. Even at that projection, Bennett might live up to his AAV for the first two or three years of the deal. Still, beyond that, his style of play will likely catch up to him, making the final years of his deal difficult to deal with. Bennett will be 29 in June, and a six-year deal will take him until he’s 35, at which point it’s hard to know what his game will look like.

Mikael Granlund’s value is hard to gauge because fit is essential to his production. He was a terrible fit with the Penguins when he was acquired two years ago at the trade deadline and produced just five points in 21 games. That trade for a second-round pick was ultimately the final straw for the Penguins as they fired general manager Ron Hextall shortly after he made the move. Granlund was then dealt to San Jose, where he produced top-six numbers and was one of their top scorers before another trade to Dallas in February. Granlund has been a decent fit with the Stars, scoring 21 points in 31 games. The knock on Granlund is that he doesn’t do much away from the puck and can’t drive a line alone despite good playmaking abilities. He is a terrific passer, but aside from that, his game is limited. He isn’t slow, but he is an average skater at best.

Despite all of this, he puts up numbers, and he will surely find an NHL GM who will look at that and pay up. He won’t get a four-year deal, but he may secure a three-year contract around his current cap hit of $5MM. AFP’s projection for Granlund is a two-year deal at $4.6MM per season, which looks pretty realistic, if not a bit on the lighter side, given the rising salary cap. Whoever signs Granlund needs to play him on the power play and in the top six; otherwise, they will wind up like the Penguins in 2023 and searching for a salary dump.

Blue Jackets forward Luke Kunin is next on our list and is projected by AFP to wind up on a two-year deal for $2.1MM per season. Kunin can hit, and that’s about it. His game impact is minimal, and $2.1MM is a wild number for a player as limited as he is. Kunin doesn’t put up points and has played mainly on the fourth line, getting caved in on the possession front while doing so. He hasn’t been helped by his deployment, starting his shifts in the defensive zone 56.8% of the time this year at even strength, but that has a negligible impact on his overall numbers. Signing Kunin to that deal won’t break a team, but it certainly won’t help a contending team build a competent bottom six.

Jonathan Drouin has had two straight solid seasons with the Colorado Avalanche and should receive a significant raise this summer from the $2.5MM he played for this year. Since joining the Avalanche, the 30-year-old has posted 30 goals and 63 assists in 122 games while playing 15:23 a game. Drouin has been a good fit with Colorado and is projected by AFP to get a contract in the four-year range with a cap hit of $5.87MM.

Drouin had to settle for a one-year deal last summer and should have multi-year offers this year. While he has recaptured his game, he has dressed just 43 times this season and has been inconsistent throughout his career. Any team paying him nearly $6MM a season for four years would take a massive gamble that could be a contract to buy out in a few seasons. Teams were cautious with Drouin last summer, and it’s not hard to imagine teams capping their offers at two or three years, but all it takes is one team that is desperate for scoring to get to Drouin’s projected contract numbers.

Finally, on the back end, one defenseman is primed to be overpaid again on the free agent market: Cody Ceci of the Dallas Stars. Ceci is in the final year of a four-year deal he signed in 2021 with a $3.25MM cap hit. That contract was initially projected to be a problem, and it became an issue for the Oilers last summer when they dealt the 31-year-old to San Jose in a salary cap-fueled move.

Ceci’s next deal could turn out to be even more problematic. The Ottawa, Ontario, native is projected by AFP to earn $11MM on a three-year contract, which is quite the price for a depth defenseman who needs to be sheltered to be effective. Ceci was okay with the Oilers when they moved him away from Nurse, but he should not be counted on for anything more than depth minutes in a No. 5-6 role.

In the net, goaltending will be challenging in the free-agent market as the options include reclamation projects, career backups, and Jake Allen. Allen figures to get a chunk of change in free agency, but will not see starter’s money despite having a great year in New Jersey. Beyond that, it’s hard to imagine any team committing significant dollars to the available netminders.

Photo by Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

Who Is The Best Player Currently Playing Outside The NHL?

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With Ivan Demidov recently joining the Montreal Canadiens, Alexander Nikishin joining the Hurricanes for practice, and Zeev Buium debuting with the Minnesota Wild, the list of top prospects playing outside the NHL has shrunk. This raises the question: Who is the top player in the world not playing in the NHL?

Former Toronto Maple Leafs forward Josh Leivo tore up the KHL this season, setting a single-season goal record with 49. The 31-year-old also led the KHL scoring with 80 points in 62 games on his way to a career season, and at one point had four hat tricks in a month.

Leivo is no stranger to the NHL, having played 265 career games over 10 seasons, tallying 42 goals and 51 assists. The Innisfil, Ontario, native last played in the NHL during the 2022-23 season, scoring four goals and adding 12 assists in 51 games with the St. Louis Blues. Since then, Leivo has posted elite numbers in the KHL, but it would be challenging to anoint him as the top player outside the NHL, especially since this was the first season in which he’s played at that level.

Vladimir Tkachev is another KHL star who could make a case for being the best player in the world currently outside of the NHL. The 29-year-old had a cup of coffee in the NHL with the Los Angeles Kings during the 2021-22 season, chipping in two helpers in four games. At the AHL level, Tkachev had seven goals and 22 assists in 41 games with the Ontario Reign that season, before returning to Russia.

Since linking up with Avangard Omsk of the KHL, Tkachev has been an elite scorer, posting a better-than-a-point-per-game average, including last year, when he registered 20 goals and 55 assists in 58 games. This past year, Tkachev missed seven months after suffering a ruptured Achilles and played in just four games. At 29, Tkachev is what he is in his bid to be the best player outside of the NHL. Still, given that his sample size from last season is so small, and he only has one elite professional season under his belt, it is hard to anoint him as the holder of that title now.

Regarding goaltenders outside the NHL, Sharks prospect Yaroslav Askarov is as good as it gets. The 11th overall pick in the 2020 NHL Draft has had a terrific AHL career thus far and was dominant this season, posting a .923 save percentage with four shutouts in 22 games. Askarov was a highly touted prospect before being drafted, drawing comparisons to Carey Price. He has good size, tracks the puck well, and has terrific athleticism. He is also very calm in the crease, which explains the comparisons to Price.

Askarov has all the makings of a franchise goalie, but at 22, he has yet to break through to the NHL full-time. He did play well in 13 NHL games this season, registering 1.7 goals saved above expected (as per MoneyPuck), and should leap full-time next year. Which begs the question: Is he the best player outside the NHL? The answer is probably no, but he should be included in the conversation. It won’t be long until he plays NHL hockey full-time, and if he establishes his game at the same time as the Sharks’ other top prospects, he could do some pretty remarkable things in San Jose.

The next name that comes to mind is another former NHLer, Nikita Gusev. The 32-year-old Gusev had a solid rookie season with New Jersey back in 2019-2020, posting 13 goals and 31 assists in 66 games. However, he followed it up with a subpar 2020-21 season, which led him to leave the NHL for the KHL. Since departing for Russia, Gusev has been a point-per-game player, even setting a new KHL single-season scoring record with 89 points in 68 games during the 2023-24 season. Given his consistency in recent seasons, a strong case could be made that Gusev is the top player in the world currently playing outside of the NHL until we discuss the last name on the list.

For many people, the first name that comes to mind is 17-year-old Gavin McKenna, and for good reason. McKenna is the projected first overall pick in 2026 and just finished a phenomenal season with the Medicine Hat Tigers, producing 41 goals and 88 assists in 56 games. McKenna has another season in junior hockey before he is drafted, and he will no doubt draw comparisons not just to recent first-overall selections Connor Bedard and Macklin Celebrini, but also to a decade-defining talent like Connor McDavid, as well.

While he undoubtedly has the highest upside of any player currently playing outside of the NHL, it’s hard to say he is the definitive number one, but it is also hard to dispute it. He isn’t playing against men yet, and all the other players are competing in professional hockey in the world’s second- or third-best leagues. The comparison isn’t exactly apples to apples, but there can’t be one.

The debate likely comes down to Gusev and McKenna for being the best in the world outside the NHL. While the title is unofficial, it was previously held by Gusev before he made the move to the NHL. However, given McKenna’s historic season, he has completed arguably one of the best seasons ever in the CHL for a 17-year-old, and he makes the best case for the best player in the world outside of the NHL.

Examining Summer Buyout Candidates

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The NHL salary cap is increasing dramatically this summer, but that won’t stop teams from looking to cut inflated cap hits from their salary ledgers. The buyout remains an option that NHL teams will regularly use to move out a player who has underperformed relative to their NHL salary. Teams often swap struggling players in a change-of-scenery trade, but they will use the buyout as a last resort if they can’t find a market. Let’s examine this summer’s buyout candidates, beginning with the forwards.

Andre Burakovsky cashed in on a Stanley Cup-winning year in Colorado, signing a five-year, $27.5MM deal with the Seattle Kraken in free agency, including a modified 10-team no-trade list. Since signing the agreement in July 2022, Burakovsky’s performance has declined, particularly last season, when he had just seven goals and nine assists in 49 games. The 30-year-old has bounced back this year, but still fell below the 40-point margin for the third consecutive season. He should be a trade or buyout candidate given his injury history and declining performance.

A modified no-trade clause will limit a small trade market and might force Seattle to relinquish an asset to move Burakovsky or take back another undesirable contract. A buyout would be spread over four seasons and save Seattle $5.83MM over the next two seasons total, but leave them with a $1.458MM cap hit the two seasons after (as per PuckPedia). Given the bounceback this season, it seems likely that Seattle either hangs on to Burakovsky or tries to trade him rather than eating the cost of a four-season buyout.

Chris Kreider of the New York Rangers is another forward who could be moved this summer. While a trade is likelier, it’s not an impossibility that the veteran winger could be bought out. The 33-year-old’s play has fallen off a cliff this season as he hasn’t been able to generate the same level of shot production as in previous seasons. Kreider averaged 42 goals between 2021 and 2024, but couldn’t top 25 goals this season and finished with just eight assists.

Kreider carries a 15-team no-trade clause and has two years remaining on his contract at a cap hit of $6.5MM, which will be prohibitive regarding potential trade talks. With the trade market cut in half, the Rangers might have to eat some of the remainder on Kreider’s deal. Still, given that general manager Chris Drury has gotten out from under more undesirable contracts (Barclay Goodrow and Jacob Trouba), he may find a creative way to shed Kreider’s contract without a buyout.

Under normal circumstances, Detroit center Andrew Copp would be a buyout candidate, but given that the 30-year-old will be out well into the summer after pectoral surgery, it won’t happen. Copp posted just 10 goals and 13 assists in 56 games this season, but barring a trade, he will return to Detroit next season if he is healthy enough to play by the opening of training camp.

Shifting back to defense, Ryan Graves is a prime candidate to be bought out; however, a significant caveat exists regarding moving on from the 29-year-old. The structure of Graves’ contract makes a buyout nearly impossible (as per PuckPedia) because any buyout would only move on from Graves’ salary and not include the $8MM in signing bonuses that Graves is due in each of the last four years of his contract. If Pittsburgh wants to buy Graves out, he will remain on the books for eight more years and save them just $2.58MM total over those eight years. A Graves buyout isn’t worth it for the Penguins, and the only significant cap savings would happen in the first year of the deal, the season in which the Penguins are the least likely to contend. The Penguins will have to keep Graves, trade him, or play him in the minors for the foreseeable future.

Marc-Édouard Vlasic is another veteran whose contract has become an albatross. Vlasic was once one of the top defensive defensemen in the NHL, but has fallen on hard times as he plays on a poor San Jose Sharks team. Vlasic has one year left on his contract with a $7MM cap hit and is owed $5.5MM in actual salary. He played just 24 games last year, and while he wasn’t unplayable, he’s not a good NHL defenseman anymore. Much of Vlasic’s decision will depend on what the Sharks hope to do next season; if they intend to add around their young core, they may buy out Vlasic to give themselves as much cap space as possible. If they opt to have one more year of rebuilding before adding to their lineup, they will likely burn the final year on the deal and let Vlasic walk as a UFA next summer.

A Vlasic buyout doesn’t do much to help the Sharks, saving them $2.333MM next season while adding a cap charge of $1.167MM the following year. The Sharks seem likely to keep Vlasic in San Jose for the final year and perhaps assign him to the AHL or use him as a seventh defenseman in the NHL.

Another notable defenseman who could be bought out is Jacob Trouba of the Anaheim Ducks. Trouba became a lightning rod for criticism in New York while he was a member of the Rangers, and many people didn’t think it was possible to move him and his entire $8MM cap hit. Anaheim stepped in, taking Trouba and his whole contract, and appeared excited to do so, as Ducks general manager Pat Verbeek was happy to have Trouba as a leader for a young Ducks team. Since Anaheim placed such a high value on Trouba’s intangibles, it seems unlikely that they will buy out the last year of his contract, even though he will be vastly overpaid for his play on the ice.

The top buyout candidate in net is Philipp Grubauer of the Seattle Kraken. Grubauer has been a shell of the version he was with the Colorado Avalanche and hasn’t come close to being an average NHL goalie during his time in Seattle. At the time of his signing four years ago, Grubauer had a career save percentage over .920 in seven NHL seasons, but since then, he hasn’t produced a single season over .899, and it has fallen to .875 this year. With two years remaining at $5.9MM per season, Grubauer would be incredibly difficult to trade, even in a goaltender’s market that favors the seller. His -14.6 Goals Saved Above Expected was the third worst in the NHL among all goaltenders, and his numbers in the AHL, while better, don’t indicate that he is ready to recapture his game.

Buying out the 33-year-old would save Seattle almost $4MM in cap space next year and nearly $3MM in the 2026-27 season. They would then face a charge of $1,683,333 in each of the following seasons after that (as per Puck Pedia).

The next goalie on our list is Tristan Jarry of the Pittsburgh Penguins, and while he feels like the most obvious candidate for a buyout this summer, goalies are in short supply, and anything is possible. Jarry has been better as of late, and with no actual workhorse starters available in free agency, a team may take a flier on the two-time NHL All-Star. Teams watched Los Angeles goaltender Darcy Kuemper bounce back this season after struggling last year, and with Jarry being just 29 years old, he could do the same. Jarry has the skillset to be a starting NHL goaltender, but has struggled with mistakes and letting in bad goals at inopportune times. He has also typically struggled the deeper he gets into a season, which will scare off teams with playoff aspirations.

It’s hard to imagine Jarry back in Pittsburgh next season, but they are transitioning, and many of their prospects are still a year or two away from being NHL-ready. Someone has to play goal for the Penguins, and Josh Yohe of The Athletic believes it could be Jarry going into next season. It’s hard to get a sense of what Pittsburgh will do, but none of the potential outcomes will be shocking given how the situation has played out over the last few years with the Penguins’ starting goaltender.

Photo by Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images.

Penguins Should Try Keeping Evgeni Malkin Beyond Next Season

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The Penguins are approaching a new era as players such as Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby prepare for the final seasons of their NHL careers. Crosby has already re-upped with the Penguins for another two seasons, but Malkin has one more year on his contract and will likely retire at the end of the season (as per Josh Yohe of The Athletic). However, Yohe also stated in a recent mailbag that Malkin could stick around with the Penguins if he has a good year, which could be a wise move for Pittsburgh should Malkin be productive in his age-39 season.

It’s not often that rookie NHLers get to play with one franchise icon, let alone two, which is what Pittsburgh could offer their youngsters if Malkin continues to play a few more years. The key would be ensuring that Malkin is productive and that the Penguins don’t simply become a nostalgia act that blocks opportunities for their younger players.

From Malkin’s perspective, he may want to walk away after next season. He doesn’t have much to play for. He’s already a lock for the Hockey Hall of Fame and certainly has no financial reason to play, given that he’s made nearly $150MM in his NHL playing career (as per PuckPedia). It likely comes down to whether he has the itch to stay in Pittsburgh with the Penguins and if he feels he can contribute.

The Penguins have had a growing need for a youth movement for years now, and thanks to the work of general manager Kyle Dubas, it feels that time has come. Pittsburgh’s prospect pool has improved considerably in less than two years, and an injection of younger players is coming to the Penguins’ lineup very soon. Perhaps the excitement of a youth movement could create a desire for Malkin to stay and be a mentor, much like Malkin had with Sergei Gonchar when he first made his way to the NHL.

If Geno stayed in Pittsburgh beyond next season, the question would become in what capacity. Malkin can still produce like a second-line center, but would greatly benefit from a move to the wing and perhaps a lighter schedule. He and Crosby showed some chemistry in a small sample size this year, during which Malkin moved to the wing, and Crosby centered the first line. Malkin doesn’t have the wheels or the strength that made him a Hart Trophy winner a decade ago, but his skill, vision, and playmaking ability are still elite and would be helpful on a line where he isn’t the focal point. He could remain a solid weapon on the power play as he still possesses a heavy one-timer and strong passing ability.

Off the ice, Malkin’s presence in the Penguins’ dressing room and his connection to the fanbase are intangibles that a younger, cheaper player can’t easily replace. He remains a fan favorite in Pittsburgh and one who could help Crosby mentor the next wave of Penguins forwards. Dubas has expressed an interest in maintaining a winning culture within the Penguins organization, and few players have won more in their careers than Malkin.

If the Penguins opt to keep Malkin beyond next season, it would mean he will be playing into his 40s. At that point, a year-to-year contract would make the most sense for both the team and the player. If Malkin is willing to return on a reasonable one-year deal and still produce, there’s no reason for the Penguins to turn the page. He could play a reduced schedule of 60-70 games at 15 minutes a night and likely still produce around 50 points per season.

That is a best-case scenario in which Malkin doesn’t suffer a severe decline over the next year. The issue is that Malkin’s play has declined over the last few seasons, and if there is another dip in his play, he may walk away at the end of next season. Some will point to Crosby and Alex Ovechkin and how well they are playing, but they have had the benefit of better health and better linemates. People can look at Crosby’s concussions, and that has undoubtedly cost him time and points. However, Malkin has had two complete ACL surgeries in his career, and his legs are nowhere near what they were ten years ago.

In contrast, Crosby maintains his speed and strength on the puck. Crosby has also played with Bryan Rust and Rickard Rakell this season, while Ovechkin has played on one of the top teams in the NHL. Malkin has spent much of the season on a line with Cody Glass, Philip Tomasino and Danton Heinen.

Whether Malkin retires after next season or plays a few more after that, he will likely go down as the fourth member in the Mount Rushmore of Pittsburgh Penguins, next to Crosby, Mario Lemieux and Jaromir Jagr, and his legacy among Penguins fans will live on. He may top the 1400 point plateau next season, and while he’s not one of the top 100 players of all time, he probably should be.

Photo by Ed Mulholland-USA TODAY Sports

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