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The Anatomy Of A Stanley Cup Champion

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A lot has been made of the Toronto Maple Leafs’ elimination from the playoffs this week, with fans stating that ownership should tear the core apart. However, winning in the NHL has never been more challenging as parity has become the norm, creating a league where the line between winning and losing is razor-thin. The introduction of the salary cap in 2005 effectively eliminated the age of the dynasty. Still, the Pittsburgh Penguins, Chicago Blackhawks, and Tampa Bay Lightning managed to win multiple Cups, using a similar formula that relied on a mix of homegrown stars, bold and aggressive trades, and savvy free-agent signings. Looking back on the past decade, a clear pattern emerges, revealing a common thread that links all the Stanley Cup Champions from 2015 to 2024. These teams were built from the ground up and relied on similar roster construction to chase their championships, and could serve as a template for teams such as the Maple Leafs to follow.

Every Stanley Cup roster between 2015 and 2024 had an elite center running the first line, from Jonathan Toews in Chicago to Sidney Crosby in Pittsburgh and Jack Eichel in Vegas. These champions built their dominance from the center of the ice out. That dynamic point producer anchoring the top unit set the tone for teams, allowing them to drive play at five-on-five and usually run an elite power play. Oftentimes, these centers were two-way players who didn’t skimp on their defensive game or shy away from physicality. Crosby and Toews have consistently demonstrated this, as well as many other intangibles that set the tone for their respective teams.

Outside of an elite center, the champions have all had a strong 2C that could operate as a first-line center on most other NHL teams. The ability to roll out two top centers has given teams the ability to overwhelm their opponents by essentially running two first lines. There is no better example of this than Pittsburgh with Crosby and second-line center Evgeni Malkin. During their runs to the Stanley Cup, Pittsburgh was able to get more out of Malkin on the nights that Crosby didn’t have his game and vice versa.

Behind that, top teams almost always have substantial center depth beyond their top six, and in many cases, they can play matchup minutes against the other team’s top players. Pittsburgh had Nick Bonino, who centered the HBK line (with Phil Kessel and Carl Hagelin) that became a force during the Penguins’ 2016 run, while the Washington Capitals of 2018 had Lars Eller, who could match up against an opposing team’s top line or contribute offensively if played against similar level competition.

Beyond the middle of the ice, championship teams had one game-breaking winger. Pittsburgh had Kessel, Chicago had Patrick Kane, and Tampa Bay had Nikita Kucherov. Even in the past two years, the Champions (Vegas and Florida) have been able to deploy Mark Stone and Matthew Tkachuk, respectively. Having a winger who can take over a game gives the elite centers a pressure valve if they are having a bad game or are being tightly checked. Crosby had some off nights during the Penguins’ runs, but Pittsburgh was fortunate to have Kessel around to pick up the pieces. In Game 2 of the 2017 Eastern Conference Finals against Ottawa, the Senators did a phenomenal job checking Crosby and Malkin. However, Kessel was there to score the game’s only goal as the Penguins won 1-0.

Slipping back to the defense, nearly every team has had a top-pairing defenseman that is at or close to Norris-caliber over the past decade. This defenseman can play at a high level for 25-plus minutes per night and drives play at even strength while running an effective top power play unit. The one exception here might be the 2017 Penguins, who had Kris Letang, but he was sidelined due to injury and missed the entire playoffs. However, running it back to 2015, teams have had that minute-eating star defenseman who dominates at both ends of the rink. The list of players is elite: Cale Makar (Colorado 2022), Victor Hedman (Tampa Bay 2020 & 2021), Alex Pietrangelo (2019 in St. Louis and 2023 in Vegas) and John Carlson (Washington 2018), to name a few.

The depth is also essential for these Cup-winning rosters, as the bottom six can play a critical role depending on matchups and how many teams can roll four lines. Teams that can throw out a strong forechecking bottom two lines can wear down their opponents over a seven-game series using a mix of speed, grit and defensive reliability. The Penguins won two cups with this style, as did the Tampa Bay Lightning, who could deploy the likes of Pat Maroon, Tyler Johnson and Ross Colton on their bottom two lines during their back-to-back Stanley Cup championships. Teams that can keep sending over fresh legs shift after shift can eventually overwhelm their opponents in a seven-game series as the top players on the opposing team start to wear down from being relied upon to carry the water for a weaker team.

The teams that can build out depth can keep their core players together for a long time, which is also a massive piece of building out a Stanley Cup-winning roster. Most of the teams that won a title over the past decade did so by having a core that was largely intact for over a few years, which built chemistry, resilience, familiarity and a buy-in from the players who remained in that organization. The core continuity allowed all those components to grow and mature, eventually becoming an advantage when the games matter the most. Teams that lacked that stability often would have difficulty competing year after year, which happened to Pittsburgh after 2017, as the organization became a revolving door for the past decade.

Lastly, goaltending is always a significant factor in playoff success, but it isn’t always about who has the best goaltending; it is more about which team has the timeliest goaltending. Most of the teams that have won championships have done so without a Vezina Trophy winner and simply had a goaltender who got hot at the right time of year and carried the team through a round or two. In some cases, teams relied on two goalies who heated up when the games mattered most and were able to get the job done, or in the case of Vegas in 2023, they relied on upstart Adin Hill, who was fantastic in his 11 wins on the way to the franchise’s first Stanley Cup. In rare cases, teams didn’t even need average goaltending to win the cup and could get the job done despite poor netminding (Colorado 2022).

So, to recap, using the last ten Stanley Cup Champions: a team must acquire an elite first-line center, a strong second-line pivot, solid bottom-six depth up front, a Norris Trophy-calibre defenseman, and a goaltender that can get hot at precisely the right time. The ability to acquire the right mix of players at the right time is incredibly complicated and is something that Toronto has had to grapple with over the past decade; it isn’t easy to win in today’s NHL, and even the greatest of plans can be foiled by that reality. The Maple Leafs will be in tough to turn this era into a Stanley Cup, even if their blueprint isn’t far off from past winners.

Photos by Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports & Perry Nelson-Imagn Images

The Maple Leafs Can Keep Their Contention Window Open

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It’s too early for most Toronto Maple Leafs fans to speculate on what to do this summer to get this team to the next level. Fans are understandably emotional right now due to another playoff disappointment in a long line of playoff disappointments, and many have called for a complete levelling of the personnel from management down to the players. And while very few pieces on the team have performed up to expectations, it’s unrealistic to expect a complete teardown. So, what should the Maple Leafs do this summer?

First, it’s essential to understand the current state of Maple Leafs management. President of hockey operations Brendan Shanahan has no contract for next season, and it sure doesn’t seem like he will get one with Toronto. Not after the complete collapse of this Maple Leafs team that just could never win when it mattered the most. Shanahan came into Toronto and unveiled the Shanaplan, which was objectively a failure as the Maple Leafs never made it out of the second round and lost every Game 7 they ever played in under his watch. Regardless of the results, Shanahan never wavered from his plan, even when it became apparent that he needed to pivot. Ultimately, he remained steadfast, and it likely cost him his job, or at the very least, it should have.

That should be the first significant domino to fall, and it will be another major shakeup in Toronto after they let general manager Kyle Dubas walk two years ago and sent former head coach Sheldon Keefe packing last summer. But that can’t be it, Toronto can’t just march in another president of hockey operations and call it a summer; they need real change on the ice, palpable, brutal, change that shakes the makeup of their hockey team. It cannot be tinkering around the edges like the team has done in the summers past.

Toronto needs to let Mitch Marner walk; unfortunately, he will set sail for nothing in return. Toronto will gain significant cap space, and how they use it will be imperative to their future success. During his nine years in the NHL, Marner was an incredible point producer in Toronto, producing 221 goals and 520 assists in 657 career NHL games. The 28-year-old was also solid defensively and killed penalties, averaging 92 points per 82 games. But his playoff numbers were abysmal by his standards, tallying just 13 goals and 50 assists in 70 career playoff games. Marner went quiet when it mattered most, and he was never a game breaker for Toronto when the stakes were at their highest. Toronto can no longer afford to pay top dollar for a winger who disappears at inopportune times, no matter how effective he is in the regular season. Marner will surely command a lot of money in free agency, and he may go on to eventually win a Stanley Cup, but his time in Toronto ran its course, and running it back with him would be hazardous for both him and the Maple Leafs.

Toronto must also decide how badly it wants to keep John Tavares in the fold. The 34-year-old is at the tail end of his career and remains a solid point producer, but he is not the fleetest of foot, and his underlying numbers this season were some of the worst of his career. Tavares had 38 goals and 36 assists in 75 games this year, but couldn’t replicate his offensive pace in the playoffs despite some timely scoring. Tavares could still chase significant money in free agency, but the Maple Leafs should avoid paying market value to a player who has posted just 31 points in 51 playoff games with Toronto. If Tavares wants to remain close to home in Toronto, the Maple Leafs should play hardball and try to finally have one of the members of the core four sign a contract that is significantly under market value. If Tavares isn’t interested in offering a discount, Toronto should use those savings elsewhere and try to bring in another free agent to give the forward group a fresh look.

Beyond that, the Maple Leafs should let their remaining UFAs go and lock up Matthew Knies to a long-term extension. If Toronto opts to sign Knies long term AFP Analytics projects his deal to be in the neighborhood of $7.22MM per season long term, which would leave the Maple Leafs with 17 players signed for next season and $17.6MM in available cap space (if Matt Benning and Ryan Reaves are buried in the AHL once again). That lack of wiggle room makes it impossible for Toronto to bring back Marner and Tavares, even if they wanted to (Marner is projected to receive $12.95MM annually, while Tavares is at $7.94MM annually). Still, they should consider other options unless Tavares takes about half that projection.

So, what can Toronto do to fill out those final six roster spots? Well, the short answer is not a lot, at least not on the trade market, since they don’t have a first-round pick until 2028 and lack impact prospects outside Easton Cowan, Topi Niemela, and Ben Danford. The Maple Leafs have two choices: sign players through free agency or make hockey trades using roster players. Regarding where the changes might occur, the likeliest changes will occur upfront, where the Maple Leafs have seven forwards under contract, not including the aforementioned Knies. On the backend, Toronto’s entire defense is locked up for next year, as are both goaltenders.

The good news for the Maple Leafs is that the defense and goaltending free agent markets are weak, while the forward UFAs are stronger. This could open up the Maple Leafs to move out a defenseman for a reasonable return and to acquire salary cap room to sign a forward. Oliver Ekman-Larsson played reasonably well this season and has a 16-team no-trade clause, so he could certainly be dealt, but a move like that would put added pressure on the bottom defensive pairing, which they might not want to do.

The Maple Leafs have some contracts up front that they would no doubt love to rid themselves of. The final year of Calle Järnkrok’s contract could probably be moved with a late-round sweetener, and perhaps that is something Toronto will explore to give itself an extra $2.1MM in cap space for next year. Another option would be to try to move Max Domi and his $3.75MM cap hit, but with three years on that deal, it might be something Toronto has to hold onto. Domi wasn’t terrible last season but was miscast in the bottom six and struggled in the playoffs at times, despite having seven points in 13 games.

All the options in Toronto create many moving parts, but the Maple Leafs have to be careful not to change for the sake of change. They must be strategic about shuffling the deckchairs and targeting players who can insulate their remaining stars. So, who should Toronto target to bring into the fold?

Florida center Sam Bennett would be a top target, particularly if Tavares moves on. Bennett is a true warrior who is battle-tested and still reasonably young at 28. He gave the Maple Leafs a front row seat to see what he could do and would give Toronto an element of skill and sandpaper that had been missing during their past decade of struggle. Bennett is from Holland Landing, Ontario, which is a little less than an hour North of Toronto and may welcome a return to home, but cost could certainly become an issue as he will be one of the most sought-after free agents. AFP Analytics projects Bennett to receive a six-year deal for $6.64MM annually, which could become problematic in a few seasons given his style of play, but it would be a price worth paying if he plays at his current level for even half of the deal.

Speaking of Florida Panthers forwards, Brad Marchand should be a target simply so he can stop torching the Maple Leafs in the playoffs annually. Marchand is no longer a top-end forward, but he has proved his worth in these playoffs, particularly against Toronto. Marchand is projected to sign a two-year deal worth just north of $5MM per season, which would be a very reasonable ask given his resume and ability to get better as the games get bigger. Toronto desperately needs the intangibles that a Marchand-type player can provide, and his personality would probably thrive in a big market such as Toronto.

An off-the-board target that wouldn’t provide a massive impact but could be an under-the-radar signing is two-time Stanley Cup Champion Brandon Saad. The 32-year-old can still produce at a 40-point clip and remains a decent skater who can play off the rush. Saad still does well to get to the net, and he can cause issues for opposing goaltenders, using his hands in tight to provide offense. Toronto doesn’t have much of what Saad offers, and he isn’t likely to cost much more than $2MM on a one- or two-year deal. Saad also has considerable big-game experience, which the Maple Leafs lack, and like Marchand, could provide some veteran leadership to help Toronto’s stars in those uncertain big-game situations.

Change is necessary in Toronto this offseason, as the team can no longer tinker around the edges of the roster. Big moves need to be made, and the Maple Leafs will likely need to replace one or two of the core four by committee rather than with one player. It’s a difficult task, but not impossible, as Oakland A’s general manager Billy Beane once said in the film Moneyball, “Guys, you’re still trying to replace Giambi. I told you we can’t do it, and we can’t do it. Now, what we might be able to do is re-create him. Re-create him in the aggregate.” While Billy Beane is discussing replacing one of the best hitters in baseball, the Maple Leafs might be tasked with replacing one of the best offensive producers in the NHL, and given the constraints in place, they will need to do it by committee. It’s a tall task, but as Beane showed back over two decades ago, it’s not an impossible one.

Photos by Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images and Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

What The Senators Must Do To Become Stanley Cup Contenders

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The Senators lost to the Maple Leafs in the opening round of this year’s Stanley Cup Playoffs. While they performed well in a six-game loss, they showed the team isn’t ready to be a serious contender. Some might argue that this is the first major hurdle in their rebuild, and they have plenty of time to ramp up expectations, but Ottawa has been rebuilding for half a decade and will need to be bold this summer if they hope to jump into the upper echelon of NHL teams.

Ottawa’s rebuild went through severe growing pains, the biggest being that the team hasn’t drafted particularly well outside its first-round picks. They took Drake Batherson in the fourth round in 2017 and Shane Pinto in the second round back in 2019, but their bottom six has been an area of concern for quite some time, and they hadn’t been able to squeeze bottom-six NHLers out of their draft picks. That put increased pressure on Ottawa’s strong top six, an area that Ottawa could look to improve if it wants to contend.

It doesn’t matter how good Ottawa’s top six is; if they don’t receive much help from the bottom two lines, winning games, particularly in the playoffs, becomes increasingly complex. A good comparison for this is the Penguins during the prime years of Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, when the Penguins couldn’t get out of the first round with a weak bottom six but became a buzzsaw during 2016 and 2017 when GM Jim Rutherford built an above-average third and fourth line.

Ottawa needs to adopt the same approach to take the next step. Last year, Ottawa’s top six was dramatically improved by the end of the season, with Pinto centering the third line, and the acquisition of Fabian Zetterlund offering another solid piece for the bottom two lines. But if they want to be bold, there are two places they should look to improve, both of which would organically improve their overall depth.

The first is up front, where their depth was mentioned as an issue. Ottawa could tinker at the edges of their roster and sign depth players as they did last summer, or they could make a push to acquire a top-six forward who could push a David Perron or Claude Giroux (if he re-signs) into the bottom six and add some scoring. Alex Adams of Sportsnet has speculated about the Senators potentially taking a run at Winnipeg’s Nikolaj Ehlers or Florida’s Sam Bennett, and both would fit what Ottawa needs. However, the Senators have solid center depth in their top nine and limited cap space, making Bennett a longshot target. Brock Boeser could also be a target, but Ottawa might be best served to look elsewhere for cap management reasons, given what he will command on the open market.

The other area that the Senators badly need to address is the right side of their defense. Artem Zub is a good pro and a solid second-pairing defenseman, but he should not be on the first unit for a team with Stanley Cup aspirations. That said, Ottawa currently has a solid defensive core, but it could use some help in the short term.

The Senators probably won’t be in on the likes of free agent Aaron Ekblad, and they don’t have the high-end assets to acquire a top young defenseman on the trade market. But what about a reunion with former Senators captain Erik Karlsson? The three-time Norris Trophy winner had his best years in Ottawa, and although he was traded to San Jose, Karlsson’s wife is from Ottawa, and it’s possible he would welcome a return to Canada’s capital. But would it make sense for Ottawa to do so? The short answer is no, but there could be a match there if the Penguins were willing to retain money.

Karlsson would provide offense, but plopping him into the top four would mean he has to play with Jake Sanderson or Thomas Chabot, both young defensemen tasked with covering for many of Karlsson’s defensive shortcomings. Given his skating and strong positional work, Sanderson could probably do that, but it would be a big ask for Chabot. Acquiring a player like Karlsson would allow Zub to drop to the second or third pairing, depending on the availability of Nick Jensen. The other thing that a Karlsson acquisition would do is serve as a stopgap until defensive prospect Carter Yakemchuk is ready to play in the NHL in a couple of years. Yakemchuk could become the top-pairing right-shooting defenseman that Ottawa is looking for. Still, the timeline for his development is unlikely to meet the urgency with which Ottawa needs to fill that hole.

Ottawa’s real target for a trade should be a defenseman who can help elevate Sanderson or Chabot. Zub has been a good soldier for Ottawa, but whenever he plays away from Sanderson, his underlying numbers take a hit, while Sanderson’s improve. It’s a delicate situation for Ottawa as they probably don’t want to disrupt their top pairings’ chemistry, but it might be worth exploring another defenseman on the trade market. Cost will be an issue for the Sens, but Seattle’s Adam Larsson is a name that could be available, as could Calgary’s Rasmus Andersson. The latter of those two might be tailor-made for Ottawa, but he did struggle last year, having some of the worst numbers of his career, and he will be due a massive extension shortly. Ottawa might be wary of acquiring an expensive veteran via trade if they have to turn around and give a lucrative long-term deal to an aging defenseman.

The options are out there if Ottawa does opt to fill in some of the holes at the top of their roster; however, at the moment, the cap space isn’t there to aggressively pursue any of the top free agent options. Ottawa has 14 players signed for next season and has just $17.5MM (as per PuckPedia) left in cap space. After they find a backup goaltender, re-sign Tyler Kleven and Zetterlund, it doesn’t leave much left over to pursue top-end talent, and this doesn’t even account for Giroux, who could potentially re-sign as well. The Senators don’t have much coming from their prospect pipeline either, so they will need to dip into free agency or the trade market to acquire some depth help, too.

The time has come for the Senators to act like a win-now team, especially given the window they have left to compete. They don’t have much young help coming, so management must be aggressive and creative. Bold calculated moves are required so the Senators don’t squander the prime of their young stars, who are almost all on long-term contracts.

Photo by Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

Offseason Checklist: Pittsburgh Penguins

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The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that aren’t taking part in the playoffs plus those eliminated in the first round.  Accordingly, it’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months. Next up is a look at Pittsburgh.

The Penguins missed the playoffs for the third straight year, and the team has pivoted from being a perennial playoff participant to a below-average squad with an old and expensive roster. The question in Pittsburgh has now become, are they in a rebuild or a retool? General manager Kyle Dubas spoke about wanting to get back into contention quickly earlier in the year, but has spoken more recently about finding sustained success. Still, the Penguins’ recent split with head coach Mike Sullivan suggests that they may not be planning to compete anytime soon. Josh Yohe of The Athletic has speculated that the Penguins will try to make a big splash in the summer of 2026, which means this upcoming season could be rough in the Steel City. The Penguins hired Dubas nearly two years ago. They paid him very handsomely to navigate a complicated situation in Pittsburgh, and this could be the summer when Dubas has to earn his hazard pay. The Penguins are about to enter what can best be described as a transitional summer as they continue to shed older, more expensive players in favor of younger, controllable ones who will be part of the franchise’s future.

Hire A New Head Coach

Sullivan coached the Penguins for nearly a decade and is the most successful coach in franchise history. His presence always gave the Penguins a confident swagger, even when they shouldn’t have had one. While Sullivan didn’t have much success in recent years, they probably overachieved given the poor roster construction and inconsistent goaltending.

Now, with Sullivan in New York, Pittsburgh must pivot and hire a coach for a job that is as undesirable as an NHL coaching job can be. The Penguins aren’t close to competing, and don’t have any truly upper-echelon prospects that will be gracing the ice at PPG Paints Arena anytime soon. However, the Penguins remain a prestigious franchise and still boast one of the game’s greatest players in Sidney Crosby.

Whoever is the Penguins’ next coach will likely be the last head coach of Crosby’s career and will need to be okay with taking on a team that will underwhelm next season. This could force the Penguins to look outside the regular NHL coaching carousel, which might be a positive, given the rate at which NHL coaches are recycled. Pittsburgh will probably be looking for a coach who preaches defense first, which would be a significant pivot for a franchise that has made offensive firepower its calling card. But the Penguins barely have any outside their top line (Crosby, Bryan Rust, and Rickard Rakell), and their top prospects won’t exactly fill the scoresheet.

If the Penguins can find a head coach who can scheme a solid defensive structure and Pittsburgh can get some goaltending, they could surprise people next season. But even then, it’s hard to imagine them being anything more than a middle-of-the-pack team.

Trade Erik Karlsson

The Erik Karlsson experiment has been a trip. It was worth trying, and Dubas did well to acquire the three-time Norris Trophy winner using multiple veterans on bad contracts and several premium draft picks. The first-round pick they traded for Karlsson is a loss that stings, but the move made sense at the time, as the Penguins were hopeful that their veteran group had one more run in them, and the belief was that Karlsson could elevate the older stars. But it didn’t work out that way, and Karlsson has been just okay offensively, and downright dreadful defensively. Karlsson was never a master class in defense, but this past season, his shortcomings were undeniable, so much so that Kyle Dubas had some harsh words about Karlsson’s game at the end of the season (as per Pittsburgh Hockey Now).

Karlsson isn’t impossible to move, but the last time he was available two years ago, he was two years younger and coming off a 100-point Norris Trophy-winning season. He’s older, slower, and has significantly less trade value this time. The Penguins might have to take a bath on this one if they want to move on from the soon-to-be 35-year-old. The other issue they will face is that Karlsson controls his fate through a no-movement clause.

While it will undoubtedly be more challenging to trade Karlsson this year from a performance perspective, it should be easier to facilitate contractually. Karlsson has two years left on his deal with a $10MM cap hit thanks to $1.5MM of retention by the Sharks. Karlsson has $16.5MM left on his contract in hard cash, but after his bonus for next season is paid out on July 1, he will be owed just $11.5MM in absolute dollars for the final two seasons. That could interest a team more concerned with actual dollars than cap space, such as one of Karlsson’s previous teams, the Ottawa Senators.

So, what kind of trade can Penguins fans expect? It’ll be something similar to what he was traded for previously, minus a first-round pick. There won’t be many teams willing or able to take on Karlsson’s full cap hit, so the Penguins will either need to retain a significant portion of Karlsson’s salary for the next two seasons or take back another team’s undesirables to allow the money to match.

Suppose the Penguins opt to retain significant money. In that case, they will allow themselves the best potential return, as teams would probably line up if Karlsson’s cap hit were reduced to something closer to half of the $10MM he is currently costing. It’s hard to speculate what that kind of return would be, but it would probably not be insignificant given that Karlsson can still put up points and play in a team’s top four.

Now, if the Penguins opt for the route where they retain no money or very little, it will require them to take back contracts of underperforming players. There wouldn’t be much of a market for this type of trade, but Detroit would certainly have interest, and they have several players on low-value contracts and would be happy to ship them out to bring in Karlsson.

In any event, Karlsson is among several Penguins players who need fresh starts, and he is the most impactful Pittsburgh player who could be on the trading block.

Acquire Younger Roster Players

Many people panned the Jake Guentzel trade in March of 2024, as Dubas elected to go for quantity over quality regarding the Penguins’ best trade chip. Guentzel was dealt to Carolina for forward prospects Vasily Ponomarev and Ville Koivunen, Cruz Lucius, a conditional first-round pick in the 2024 NHL Draft and a conditional fifth-round pick in the 2024 draft. Now, the first-round pick ended up falling back to a second pick, and Dubas was heavily criticized for not obtaining a first-round pick, but the trade has been a massive win for the Penguins just a year later. Pittsburgh drafted defenseman Harrison Brunicke with the second-round pick, and he appears to be developing into a long-term fixture in the Penguins’ top four. Koivunen looks like he will start next season in the top six for the Penguins, and Ponomarev may be playing on the third line.

Now that Dubas has started building some depth in the Penguins’ pipeline, they must find higher-end young players to lead their newly acquired prospects. Pittsburgh has a handful of nice forward prospects, but they do not have any high-end prospects they can build around. Those players are the most difficult to acquire, but that is the project that Dubas will need to figure out to get the Penguins back into contention.

The Penguins have a couple of solid veterans on value contracts that they could flip out for picks and prospects, but with so many draft picks in the subsequent three drafts, Pittsburgh might be best served to try to move those players out for young NHL roster players. It’s easier said than done, though, as teams are more forward-thinking these days and better understand the importance of young controllable roster players in a salary cap league.

Dubas might not be able to accomplish this goal without some draft lottery luck next year. Still, he he’ll have plenty of draft picks over the coming years to try and catch some value in the Entry Draft, or use those picks to make trades to a team that is up against the salary cap and has to move out an RFA who has priced himself out of a cap strapped organization.

Move Out Rickard Rakell

Rakell had a career year playing alongside Crosby on the Penguins’ top line, posting 35 goals and 35 assists in 81 games. For Rakell, it was the third time he had topped 30 goals and the first time since 2017-18. Rakell can play, there is no doubt about that, but he is just a year removed from arguably the worst season of his career and at 32 years of age, his value isn’t going to be higher. Rakell will likely be 33-35 years old by the time the Penguins are set to contend, and while trading him might upset Crosby, Rakell isn’t helping this team when they are ready to win unless he is traded for future help.

Dubas talked about the need to maintain a winning culture in Pittsburgh, but to be perfectly honest, the Penguins haven’t had a winning culture since Rakell arrived, missing the playoffs in three of the four years he has been there. So, moving on from him isn’t exactly going to wipe the slate clean, as Rakell was never in Pittsburgh when the Penguins were contenders. The best course of action with Rakell is to move him this summer and add to the prospect pool to turn things around quickly.

Rakell has three years left on his contract at $5MM annually and should be able to fetch the Penguins a first-round pick, if not more.

He will not be the easiest player to trade, but with an increasing salary cap and teams always desperate for offence, Rakell could be a solid depth addition for a team that views itself as a Stanley Cup contender. He has a modified eight-team no-trade clause, which shouldn’t be prohibitive but might block the Penguins from trading to some potentially interested parties, depending on how strategic Rakell plans to be with his contractual right.

Some folks might make a case for trading veteran forward Rust, and there is an excellent case for it, given his play last season. But, if the Penguins do genuinely care about maintaining a winning culture, Rust is one of a handful of remaining carryovers from the Penguins’ Stanley Cup Championships in 2016 & 2017 and has a deep connection with Crosby and the Penguins organization. Many people make the case that Rust should be the next captain of the Penguins, but given Crosby’s play in his late 30s, Rust and Crosby may retire simultaneously.

Photo courtesy of Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

Examining The Penguins’ Options For Ryan Graves

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When Penguins general manager Kyle Dubas took over the organization just before the draft in 2023, he had little time to do an organizational assessment. But one glaring hole was on the Penguins’ top defensive pairing next to Kris Letang, where long-time fixture Brian Dumoulin was set to depart after a rocky final season in Pittsburgh. Dubas recognized the gaping hole and swiftly signed defensive defenseman Ryan Graves to a six-year contract in free agency worth $4.5MM per season.

The contract immediately became an albatross for Pittsburgh as Graves struggled on the top pairing, fell down the hierarchy to the bottom pair, and was eventually a healthy scratch on many occasions this season. The deal has been a disaster for the Penguins and will be challenging to navigate going forward.

There’s not much Dubas can realistically do to get out from under the Graves deal. Thanks to the signing bonus structure of the contract, it is essentially buyout-proof (per PuckPedia) and would offer the Penguins very little salary cap relief. The only significant reduction would come next season, a year when the Penguins probably need it the least out of the next few years, and it would tack on additional years in which the Penguins would be paying for the buyout.

The next option is probably the likeliest: to bury Graves in the minors and have him play for the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins of the AHL. This situation wouldn’t be unprecedented, as plenty of NHLers on big-money deals have gone to the AHL before. There’s even a recent example in Pittsburgh, where netminder Tristan Jarry had two stints in the AHL this past season. Graves is no stranger to the AHL, having played four seasons in the league before beginning his NHL career with the Colorado Avalanche, but has not played there since the 2018-19 season. This option would allow Pittsburgh to save the league minimum salary plus another $375K, equaling $1.15MM in cap savings for the Penguins.

An option that is less likely to happen, but probably the most interesting, is that the Penguins could try to trade Graves and his brutal contract. That option is sure to generate an audible snicker from readers. Still, bigger contracts to lesser players have been traded before, so it is not impossible. What better time to do it than the summer? The NHL is ripe with bad contracts, and it is very possible that the Penguins could find someone to swap another undesirable contract for a player that hasn’t worked out.

After signing a massive eight-year deal, Damon Severson in Columbus has also been a bust. Pittsburgh isn’t likely to take on two extra years on a player whose numbers have fallen off recently, but this is the type of player the Penguins will have to target if they want to do a one-for-one change-of-scenery trade. There are plenty of players on much bigger cap hits that Pittsburgh could target, but those contracts are mostly more extended than the four years Graves has remaining. The risk would probably be greater for the Penguins, especially given that they could be turning the corner on their retool and still owe on massive deals. Given that Severson is a right-shot, it’s only a realistic scenario if Erik Karlsson is also moved this summer.

If the Penguins want to move Graves’ contract using a sweetener, that could get ugly. Pittsburgh received a second-round pick in exchange for taking on two years of Kevin Hayes’ contract just last summer, and his cap hit was just $3.57MM, nearly a full million dollars less than Graves’ cap hit. Using that as a comparison, there is no doubt that the Penguins would need to use at least a first-round pick to shed Graves’ contract, which is something they simply won’t do at this time.

The Penguins could also keep Graves on their roster and hope he finds his game. It’s not impossible if Pittsburgh hires a more defensive coach who can utilize some of Graves’ strengths, as the Devils did in New Jersey before Graves joined the Penguins. The issue with that is that Graves played on a talented Devils team and was insulated from some of his shortcomings; in Pittsburgh, that is not the case, nor will it be for the foreseeable future. Graves does have a skill set, and although Penguins fans might disagree, he could be sheltered and used in situations that better suit those skills. He can shoot the puck, has good size and reach, and his transition game isn’t horrible. If the Penguins can find the strengths in his game and exploit them, they could build his trade stock up to the point that they could move him without having to retain any of his contract.

The flip side of that coin is that Graves plays poorly next season and is part of a team that falls to the bottom of the standings, something that is very possible. The Penguins could re-evaluate a year from now and look at their options again if they want to get out of under Graves’ contract.

Misses on depth players are what tank roster construction and unfortunately for the Penguins, the Graves deal has been a massive miss. It’s far from the only miss as their roster has been littered with poor depth contracts since Ron Hextall took over GM duties from Jim Rutherford back in the 2020-21 season. The Penguins have missed on almost every mid-range contract since 2021, but they do have options going forward, and while none of them are perfect, there is a choice that exists. The Penguins will have to make the one they feel best serves the organization as they try to turn the corner and compete again.

These Players Could Be Traded Before The Draft

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The playoffs are in full swing, but that won’t stop folks from looking at moves that could be made before the NHL Entry Draft next month. Plenty of names will be available this summer, but this list will look exclusively at the ones with a high probability of being moved before or at the Draft.

Let’s start with Anaheim Ducks goaltender John Gibson, who feels like he has been on the trading block since the beginning of the decade. Gibson had a bounce-back season this year, and the Ducks must be eager to move on while his stock is higher than it has been in recent years. Anaheim should be able to extract some value this year for Gibson, especially with many teams looking for help in net, and a free agent market void of adequate goaltending.

A caveat with Gibson is that his rebound this year happened while he had a significantly reduced workload compared to recent seasons. The 31-year-old made 29 appearances this season, posting an 11-11-2 record with a 2.77 GAA and a .911 SV%. The Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania native has two years left on his contract at $6.4MM per season, and with a modified no-trade clause, he still won’t be the easiest player to move. The writing is on the wall, though, for Gibson, who has been relegated to a backup behind youngster Lukáš Dostál. Teams looking for goaltending will try to get out in front of the market, making Gibson appealing since he shouldn’t cost much for assets, given the money he is owed.

Another name that will almost certainly be moved this summer is Pittsburgh Penguins defenseman Erik Karlsson. The three-time Norris Trophy winner has never fit into the Penguins’ lineup, and it simply feels like a matter of time before he finds himself donning a different jersey. Karlsson has made it known publicly that he wants to win a Stanley Cup, and that simply isn’t going to happen in Pittsburgh during Karlsson’s current contract.

The 34-year-old has two years left on his deal with a $10MM cap hit and the Penguins will be hungry to turn the page on the failed experiment and might be hoping to clear some of his money off the books if they intend to use the same strategy they utilized last summer to take on undesirable contracts along with draft capital as a sweetener. Last summer, GM Kyle Dubas swung deals to take on Kevin Hayes and Cody Glass along with draft picks to help build up the Penguins’ futures and will most certainly look to the well once again as they try and fast-track a retool.

Karlsson does precious little to help the Penguins in the long term and would be better served by being flipped for futures, even if the return is minimal. The Penguins could look to retain Karlsson’s cap hit, increasing the number of interested parties who could get a top-four offensive defenseman at a reduced cap hit.

A team that desperately needs a good summer is the Detroit Red Wings, who again missed the playoffs. Detroit will likely look to shed defenseman Justin Holl and the one year remaining on his deal at $3.4MM. The Red Wings will likely need to add a sweetener to get rid of his contract, and who better to offer that deal to than the Penguins above? Pittsburgh GM Dubas is familiar with Holl, and it almost makes too much sense for both teams to work out an agreement for the 33-year-old that gives the Penguins a warm body to replace Karlsson and a future draft pick, while the Red Wings would have some cap relief to improve their team. Holl has been a disaster in Detroit, but the Penguins would be more enamored with the sweetener and could try to flip him at next year’s Trade Deadline if he plays well, not unlike they did with Glass this past season.

Sticking with the Eastern Conference, the Buffalo Sabres desperately need to make something happen this summer. The team hasn’t made the playoffs in almost 15 years and missed by a considerable margin again this year. The Sabres need some degree of success and have a strong trade chip in defenseman Bowen Byram. If Buffalo makes him available, there will be a ton of inquiries, as evidenced by Josh Yohe of The Athletic, who believes that the Penguins have interest in the 23-year-old, given their sizable hole on the left side of the defence core.

The Sabres don’t have a lot of strengths, but their left-side defence is loaded with Rasmus Dahlin and Owen Power in tow. They could deal Bowen for a haul to address some of the other needs in their lineup and begin to try and break through in the Eastern Conference and get back into the playoff picture. Buffalo desperately needs help at center, and they also need to slot a top-four right-shooting defenseman into their lineup to allow Connor Clifton to drop to the bottom pairing. Byram would go a long way to accomplishing that and making the Sabres a better team overall.

Sticking with the theme of younger players, much has been written about forward Lukas Reichel of the Chicago Blackhawks and his struggles early in his professional career. Reichel could not seize the Blackhawks’ second-line center role last season and was eventually demoted to Rockford of the AHL. This past year, he managed to nail down a spot on the fourth line, but didn’t exactly turn heads.

Chicago once viewed Reichel as a key piece of their future and probably didn’t envision him playing 12 minutes a night on the fourth line some four years into his NHL career. However, not every player develops at the same pace, and Reichel still has plenty of upside. That being said, Frank Seravalli of Daily Faceoff reported back in January that other clubs were calling Chicago about Reichel’s availability and mentioned that other teams might see something that hasn’t been clicking for the 22-year-old former first-round pick.

Many teams would be interested in a younger player with pedigree, such as Reichel, who has not yet figured things out professionally. Reichel has a lot of untapped potential and no doubt plenty of GMs around the league see a player with upside who just hasn’t found his way in the NHL.

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The Stars Are Facing A Cap Crunch

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The NHL salary cap is set to rise significantly for the first time since before the pandemic-shortened seasons, which will be welcome news for contending teams that are facing a cap crunch. Despite the increase, several teams will still have significant work to do to be cap-compliant by the time NHL training camps open in September. Most of these teams remain in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, and that is where the Dallas Stars come in.

The Stars are one of the favorites to win the Stanley Cup this year, and no doubt are fine with their upcoming salary cap predicament. Dallas will have just $5.873MM in salary cap space entering this summer and have just 15 players signed in that projection (as per PuckPedia). The Stars will need to make some tough decisions to remain under the salary cap, but the good news is that most of their pending UFAs are in their mid-30s, and they have just a couple of RFAs to sign who won’t break the bank. Positive news aside, a couple of the Stars’ UFAs will be ones they likely want to keep, and they will have to move out significant salary if they hope to do so.

Matt Duchene has been an excellent fit for Dallas after playing under back-to-back one-year $3MM contracts. The likelihood that he does this again is slim, but he might enjoy the fit so much that he offers another discount. There are several caveats regarding Duchene’s pending free agency, the first being that he is still being paid handsomely by the Nashville Predators after he was bought out two seasons ago. Duchene is set to be paid over $6.5MM by the Predators next season as part of his buyout, so he may be inclined to sign a similar deal and take a total $9.5MM package.

The other caveat is that the buyout drops to just $1.5MM in the 2026-27 season and the 2027-28 season, meaning that Duchene will look at a significant drop in total salary. This, coupled with Duchene’s age (34) and his terrific production this season (30 goals and 52 assists in 82 games), could mean that he sees this summer as his final chance to cash in. If he doesn’t, the Stars might not be able to bring him back, even if he offers a discount on his market value.

The Stars will also have to deal with long-time veteran Jamie Benn, a pending UFA. Benn is no longer the power forward he was in his prime, but he can still put up points at even strength and has value in that he rarely misses games and can offer a veteran presence. This past season, the 35-year-old tallied 16 goals and 33 assists in 82 games, and while those numbers are respectable, they are a far cry from how he used to produce back when he won the Art Ross Trophy in 2014-15.

That being said, most players fall off in their 30s. It’s no surprise that this has happened to Benn, but he can still produce at five-on-five, and there is value in him remaining with the Stars if they can find cap space and opt to bring him back. Benn is completing the final season of an eight-year contract that paid him $9.5MM annually, and he said in October that he intended to play out his contract and see where things go (as per TSN), but the Stars have expressed interest in retaining him. AFP Analytics is projecting a two-year deal for Benn at $4.8MM per season, which would take up nearly all of Dallas’ remaining cap space and only allow them to sign one more player at the league minimum. They’ll need to move out salary to retain Benn or let him walk into free agency.

The Stars must also contend with forward Evgenii Dadonov’s free agency as the 36-year-old is set to hit the market as a UFA. Dadonov had an off year during the 2023-24 season but bounced back this year with 20 goals and 20 assists in 80 games. The veteran will likely seek a two-year deal, and AFP Analytics has him projected to earn a two-year contract in the range of $3.25MM annually, making it challenging for Dallas to slot him into their salary cap ledger.

So, what can the Stars do? Well, if they hope to bring back any of these three men, they will likely need to find a way to move on from a player such as Tyler Seguin and his $9.85MM cap hit or move out a combination of veterans such as Matt Dumba ($3.75MM) and Mason Marchment ($4.5MM).

Seguin would be a difficult player to trade, as only a handful of teams could afford to take on his salary, and those teams are unlikely to be ones for which Seguin would waive his no-movement clause (NMC). Seguin has two years left on his contract and is still productive when he can play. This past year, he was limited to just 20 games, but he still managed to pile up nine goals and 12 assists. In contrast, last year, when he was in better health, he scored 25 goals and added 27 assists in 68 games. Seguin is 33 and no longer an All-Star, but he remains a solid top-six player that Dallas will want to (and have to) hang onto.

The most likely moves involve moving on from several veterans. The aforementioned Dumba is a good candidate to move as he has no trade protection, and right-shot defensemen are always in demand. Dumba had a decent season with the Stars in sheltered minutes and could draw some trade interest even though he’s been a healthy scratch in the playoffs thus far. The Stars could certainly replace what Dumba does by committee, as they have Lian Bichsel ready to make the jump to the NHL full-time, and although he is a left-shot defender, the Stars could shift some bodies around to make it work. They are already using Alex Petrovic over Dumba in these playoffs, so cutting that cost would be a big move to get under the cap and bring a veteran back into the fold on an extension.

Beyond Dumba and Seguin is where the Stars’ options become murky. Sure, they could look at Marchment as he has one year left on his contract, but given that he can play top-six minutes and brings a lot to the table, the Stars might not have an appetite to move him while they are trying to contend.

Whatever happens in Dallas, the Stars will look different next season, but it’s unlikely that they care now. The Stars will remain contenders next season even if they let all their veteran UFAs walk, as they have a young core in their prime that is under contract and set to continue their strong play.

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The Kings Have Work To Do To Take The Next Step

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For the fourth consecutive season, the Los Angeles Kings were bounced from the opening round of the playoffs by the Edmonton Oilers. This year felt like the Kings’ best chance to turn their fortunes finally, and it certainly seemed likely after the Kings took a 2-0 series lead. But they would go on to lose four straight games, and in the end, the result was all too familiar. The Kings will have a lot to evaluate this summer, from management to coaching to the players donning the jerseys; everything will be on the table for a team that hasn’t advanced past the first round of the playoffs since winning the Stanley Cup in 2014.

The Kings were far from a perfectly built team but had a strong season, finishing as the second seed in the Pacific Division with a 48-25-9 record. The team struggled to hold leads, which ultimately proved to be their downfall, particularly the blown opportunities in Games 3 and 4 of the Oilers series. The primary reason for these blown leads was a lack of depth, as the Kings were forced to rely on their top nine forwards and top four defensemen almost exclusively, and the bottom of their lineup lacked effectiveness. This obvious issue falls on management, which couldn’t address a clear concern at the bottom of the lineup.

Speaking of management, the future of the Kings’ general manager, Rob Blake, was very much in question, but many Kings pundits believed that Blake and head coach Jim Hiller would stick around for next season. Yet, Blake and the Kings mutually agreed to part ways this week, marking the end of a run as GM that had both hits and misses. Blake took over from former GM Dean Lombardi a day after the 2016-17 season ended, previously serving as an assistant GM. He did not win a playoff series during his eight-year tenure and had no contract for the upcoming season. He was supposed to build the Kings into a team that could challenge for the Stanley Cup, but some questionable decisions left the Kings as more of a pretender than a contender.

Blake undoubtedly made some terrific trades, notably the Jake Muzzin trade with the Toronto Maple Leafs, which netted Los Angeles Sean Durzi, Carl Grundstrom, and a first-round pick. Another notable piece of work by Blake was the trade with Toronto for Jack Campbell, which included Trevor Moore and two third-round picks. There have been other solid moves, but the trade and extension for Pierre-Luc Dubois and some other poor salary cap management have overshadowed them.

Behind the bench, Kings fans will likely hope that the team moves on from Hiller, whose system has made the Kings look like a team playing not to lose rather than a club playing to win. Los Angeles would do well to hire a coach who can operate a creative offense that prioritizes high-pressure forechecking, such as Mike Sullivan. Unfortunately for the Kings, he has already been plucked out of free agency by the New York Rangers. Other options are available, but Los Angeles should move quickly if they plan to hire a new bench boss.

On the ice, the Kings will have some salary cap space available this summer, with roughly $23.27MM and just four players to sign. UFA defenseman Vladislav Gavrikov is one of those players who will eat close to a quarter of the space if he re-signs. Forward Alex Laferriere will also need a new deal, but shouldn’t break the bank. Should that happen, the Kings would have approximately $15MM available and just a couple of players to sign.

So, what should they do with the cap space? Upgrading their fourth-line and bottom defensive pairing is a must. The Kings bled chances with their fourth line on the ice this season, and it was a revolving door that was not addressed, ultimately costing them when the games mattered most. Fixing that issue is paramount; the fix isn’t necessarily complicated or expensive. The Kings need more forwards who can contribute offensively, which could push some of their third-liners down the lineup, thus creating a better overall forward group.

In the playoffs, the Kings’ fourth line mainly consisted of Alex Turcotte, Jeff Malott, Trevor Lewis, and Samuel Helenius. Of those players, only Turcotte averaged more than five minutes of ice time per game, highlighting an apparent roster construction flaw that put too much pressure on the top nine and ultimately wore the forwards down as the games continued.

On the back end, Brandt Clarke, Jordan Spence and Jacob Moverare played most of the Kings’ bottom pairing minutes, with just Clarke breaking the 10-minute per-game mark by averaging 12:47 of ice time per game. Clarke is part of the Kings’ solution on the bottom pairing and should improve from the experience, but finding a solid defensive partner for him would go a long way to buttoning up the defensive issues that plagued Los Angeles in the playoffs.

The Kings will likely run back the bulk of their core next season while trying to infuse a few younger players into the lineup and elevate them. It won’t be music to the ears of fans who are calling for radical changes. Still, given the salary cap corner the Kings are painted into with some of their long-term deals, it would be difficult to imagine a complete overhaul, especially when the team has been preaching about being “right there” for several years. The Blake move is a start for Los Angeles, and it will be interesting to see what other moves they make as they try to take the next step.

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Predators’ Barry Trotz Needs To Have A Much Better Summer

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Nashville Predators general manager Barry Trotz had an illustrious career behind the bench as a head coach, winning a Stanley Cup in 2018 with the Washington Capitals and accumulating many other accolades. He was also the first and longest-tenured coach in the Predators’ history.

But his short time in Nashville as a GM has been eventful, to say the least. Trotz had orchestrated a significant roster turnover that resulted in one of the worst teams in the NHL this season, despite major free agent signings less than a year ago. Given all that has gone on and the direction of the Predators, it is fair to wonder if he is on the hot seat.

Trotz started his reign in Nashville by moving out considerable salaries in Matt Duchene and Ryan Johansen, who both made $8MM annually on long-term deals signed by the previous management regime led by longtime GM David Poile. Johansen was traded to Colorado, with Nashville retaining half of his cap hit ($4MM) while Duchene was bought out, resulting in a cap charge for the next season of $6.55MM.

Trotz used the cap space to retool his roster in the summer of 2023, signing Ryan O’Reilly to a four-year deal worth $18MM and inking Gustav Nyquist and Luke Schenn to multi-year deals in free agency. The initial results were solid as the Predators made the playoffs in Trotz’s first year at the helm and were bounced in the first round. Overall, it was a good albeit unspectacular first year of work as a GM for Trotz, but that is where things began to go off the rails.

If you looked strictly at the trades Nashville made with the Pittsburgh Penguins over the past year, it would be enough to question the Predators’ direction. But there were signings and moves outside those that have already aged poorly, which may hurt the team for years. Trotz traded Cody Glass to the Penguins last August, along with a third and sixth-round draft pick, for Jordan Frasca, a prospect who might not even be an AHLer at this point.

The move was a salary dump after the Predators’ shopping spree on July 1 that saw them sign Steven Stamkos, Brady Skjei and Jonathan Marchessault to lucrative long-term deals. Glass was owed one more year on his contract at $2.5MM. The Penguins were happy to take that on and flipped him at the NHL Trade Deadline to New Jersey for another third-round pick and two prospects. The trade tree must make one wonder what exactly Trotz thought last August.

Of course, the Philip Tomasino trade to Pittsburgh for a fourth-round pick looks like a massive win for the Penguins. Tomasino didn’t light up the score sheet, but he seems like a solid top-nine piece for the Penguins’ retool. The 23-year-old was the Predators’ 2019 first-round pick (24th overall) and had a terrific rookie season in Nashville, posting 11 goals and 21 assists in 76 games in 2021-22. However, after two uneven seasons, Trotz opted to move on and sent Tomasino to the Penguins. After arriving in Pittsburgh, the Mississauga, Ontario native tallied 11 goals and 12 assists in 50 games. He doesn’t look like a superstar, but he should be a promising young player for the Pens.

Finally, there is the trade deadline acquisition of Michael Bunting from Pittsburgh. The Predators moved Thomas Novak and Luke Schenn for Bunting and a fourth-round pick. The trade was puzzling at first, but then a day later, Pittsburgh flipped Schenn out for a second and fourth-round pick, and it became clear what their motive was. They added a younger (possibly more effective) player in Novak and a second-round pick, which was icing on the cake.

These trades with Pittsburgh show Trotz’s inexperience as a GM and indicate he should probably block Kyle Dubas’ phone number before this summer. The player evaluation from the Nashville side has got to be troublesome for fans as they struggle to comprehend that series of moves. But that wasn’t all that went wrong in Trotz’s second year on the job.

The aforementioned free agent spending spree on July 1, 2024, made a lot of waves around the NHL. Nashville handed Stamkos a four-year deal for $8MM per season, Skjei got $7MM annually on a seven-year contract, and Marchessault received a $5.5MM AAV for five seasons. None of those moves in a vacuum were terrible signings, although paying three players on the wrong side of 30 a total of $20.5MM annually is hard to digest. The thought process made sense, given that Nashville has a lot of draft pick capital, but the free agent signings failed to gel in Nashville, and the result was one of the worst seasons in franchise history.

Trotz hasn’t been without his solid moves. He hasn’t been afraid to undo prior mistakes or move on from players he’s acquired if they aren’t working in Nashville. That ability to adjust on the fly and course correct will come in handy and could be the tool that helps Trotz pivot if next season goes off the rails like last year did.

Now, much of Trotz’s future will depend on the upcoming season. If Stamkos, Skjei and Marchessault can find their respective games and lead Nashville back to contention, all will be forgotten, and Trotz will continue as Predators GM. Still, if they have a year like the previous one, and Trotz makes moves similar to the transactions over the last 12 months, Nashville may have to pivot and reimagine their roster under new management.

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These Players Could Benefit From A Change Of Scenery Trade

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The classic change of scenery trade has been around in professional sports for decades and pre-dates salary caps. A change of scenery trade usually occurs when two (or more) teams swap underperforming players relative to their salary, or a single player is moved out for a fresh start elsewhere. In the case of the NHL, the team would make this move to avoid buying out a player or burying them in the minors. The hope is that a different role or a new environment can jumpstart a player’s play and rejuvenate their career. The trade doesn’t always have to involve another player on a bad contract; it can also include a sweetener to entice another team to take on a bad contract or a player to be named later. In any event, teams are gambling on a return to form when they make this transaction, and there is always a risk when trading away an underperforming player or acquiring one.

The list of reasons a team might do it can extend beyond someone’s performance, but that is usually the main driver for the move. Some recent changes in scenery trades include the Milan Lucic for James Neal trade of 2019, when the Edmonton Oilers and Calgary Flames linked up for a rare Alberta trade. Another example is the Oliver Ekman-Larsson trade between Vancouver and Arizona that sent Larsson to the Canucks and Loui Eriksson to the Arizona Coyotes (plus many other pieces).  Finally, a recent change of scenery was between Buffalo and Ottawa at the NHL Trade Deadline when Buffalo swapped Dylan Cozens for Joshua Norris and Jacob Bernard-Docker. Here are the top NHL players who could benefit from a change-of-scenery trade.

First up is Vancouver Canucks forward Elias Pettersson. There might not be any name on this list that sparks more of a response than Pettersson, who just completed the first year of an eight-year $92.8MM extension. The 26-year-old had just 15 goals and 30 assists in 64 games this season and became a lightning rod of criticism for many reasons. Pettersson’s uneven play added fuel to a firestorm that brewed from Pettersson’s deteriorating relationship with former Canucks teammate J.T. Miller. Eventually, Miller was dealt to the Rangers, but at this stage, it might be best for Pettersson and the Canucks if he was moved as well.

A trade of that magnitude will be tough to pull off and would no doubt require the Canucks to either retain (unlikely) or bring significant salary back in the move. The Norris/Cozens swap showed that moving significant money is possible. Still, the Canucks will have to hunt for another team with a player (or players) who need to kickstart their careers with a fresh start in a new organization.

Now, transitioning to Anaheim and forward Trevor Zegras. A few years ago, people were projecting Zegras to become a franchise cornerstone for the Ducks, but those expectations were likely overstated due to the flair with which Zegras was putting up offense. The 24-year-old is undoubtedly talented, but he does too little away from the puck and doesn’t do enough with it these days to make up for his shortcomings. A former ninth-overall pick, Zegras could still be very productive in a different role on a team where he isn’t a focal point.

A team like Pittsburgh might make sense for Zegras, as the Penguins have been stockpiling young, talented forwards who have underperformed and would likely be interested. The problem for the Penguins is that they also have players underperforming under big contracts and might not want to take on another problematic cap hit if they can’t get Zegras to buy in and make the changes necessary to flourish. There are plenty of markets in which Zegras could be a fit, and there should be interest in him if Anaheim opts to move him. Something that would be beneficial for both sides.

Philadelphia Flyers center Sean Couturier is another player who could use a fresh start in a new city. The 32-year-old has been relatively healthy the last few seasons, and while he hasn’t produced the same level of offense as he did earlier in his career, he has become a productive player once again. The issue with Couturier is that he will not live up to his $7.75MM price tag at this stage in his career and will likely never. Even if Couturier were to get back to his previous level of play, he doesn’t fit Philadelphia’s timeline, and his play may not even be at its current level when the team is ready to contend.

A Couturier trade would benefit both the player and the team. Still, it would be a complicated move requiring Philadelphia to eat a large portion of the AAV, something they may not want to do with five years left on the deal and over $36MM in actual cash left on the tab. A team with a strong forward group could look at Couturier as a potential candidate to bounce back if he can play with better players than he has in Philadelphia. Still, he would be an expensive risk even if Philly were to eat a significant portion of his salary.

Next up is defenseman Damon Severson of the Columbus Blue Jackets, who is just two years into an eight-year $50MM deal and has not been a good fit in Columbus. The 30-year-old was once a solid offensive defenseman for the New Jersey Devils but has fallen on hard times in Columbus and was a healthy scratch at times this past season in favor of 38-year-old Jack Johnson. Whether or not anyone wants to admit it, Severson (and his contract) have become an issue for the Blue Jackets.

Perhaps Columbus could link up with a division rival to facilitate a genuine change of scenery trade for another former Devils defenseman who has struggled, Ryan Graves of the Pittsburgh Penguins. Graves also just completed the second year of his contract, a six-year deal with an AAV of $4.5MM. Graves has been an unmitigated disaster for the Penguins, playing under a virtually buyout-proof contract. Since signing with Pittsburgh on July 1st, 2023, Graves has dressed in 131 games and has posted just four goals and 14 assists total. Last year was especially tough as the 29-year-old had just four points in 61 games. Perhaps no one needs a change of scenery more than Graves, and it feels unlikely he will get one anytime soon as Pittsburgh enters another retooling season. The Penguins aren’t going to use assets to get rid of his contract (at this time), which leaves a demotion to the AHL or a trade to another team as the likelier option. A swap for a player like Severson makes sense in theory, but Pittsburgh probably doesn’t have an appetite to take on a bigger cap hit for an older player for a more extended period.

Finally, we have goaltender Tristan Jarry of the Pittsburgh Penguins. Jarry is a former two-time NHL All-Star but has not played remotely close to that level since inking a five-year, $26.88MM contract on July 1st, 2023. The 30-year-old was demoted to the AHL twice this past season but returned at the end to go on a solid run to close out the year. Jarry could benefit from a blank slate more than anyone in the NHL and would be ideally suited to operate with another solid netminder. Jarry’s inconsistency makes it nearly impossible to rely on him as your sole starter, but if he has a safety net, he could regain the form he showed early in his career.

As much as a fresh start would do him some good, Josh Yohe of The Athletic believes there is a very good chance that Jarry starts next season in Pittsburgh, which likely indicates there isn’t a trade market for Jarry’s services now. The Penguins aren’t interested in paying to get rid of his contract, and it may be best to hold on and let him either play out of his funk and get some trade value again or have him tank next season and allow them to get a top draft pick in a strong draft. For Jarry, though, a fresh start would give him room to breathe and remove the pressure of a fan base calling for him to be moved for quite some time.

Photo by Brett Holmes-USA TODAY Sports

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