The NHL salary cap is set to rise significantly for the first time since before the pandemic-shortened seasons, which will be welcome news for contending teams that are facing a cap crunch. Despite the increase, several teams will still have significant work to do to be cap-compliant by the time NHL training camps open in September. Most of these teams remain in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, and that is where the Dallas Stars come in.
The Stars are one of the favorites to win the Stanley Cup this year, and no doubt are fine with their upcoming salary cap predicament. Dallas will have just $5.873MM in salary cap space entering this summer and have just 15 players signed in that projection (as per PuckPedia). The Stars will need to make some tough decisions to remain under the salary cap, but the good news is that most of their pending UFAs are in their mid-30s, and they have just a couple of RFAs to sign who won’t break the bank. Positive news aside, a couple of the Stars’ UFAs will be ones they likely want to keep, and they will have to move out significant salary if they hope to do so.
Matt Duchene has been an excellent fit for Dallas after playing under back-to-back one-year $3MM contracts. The likelihood that he does this again is slim, but he might enjoy the fit so much that he offers another discount. There are several caveats regarding Duchene’s pending free agency, the first being that he is still being paid handsomely by the Nashville Predators after he was bought out two seasons ago. Duchene is set to be paid over $6.5MM by the Predators next season as part of his buyout, so he may be inclined to sign a similar deal and take a total $9.5MM package.
The other caveat is that the buyout drops to just $1.5MM in the 2026-27 season and the 2027-28 season, meaning that Duchene will look at a significant drop in total salary. This, coupled with Duchene’s age (34) and his terrific production this season (30 goals and 52 assists in 82 games), could mean that he sees this summer as his final chance to cash in. If he doesn’t, the Stars might not be able to bring him back, even if he offers a discount on his market value.
The Stars will also have to deal with long-time veteran Jamie Benn, a pending UFA. Benn is no longer the power forward he was in his prime, but he can still put up points at even strength and has value in that he rarely misses games and can offer a veteran presence. This past season, the 35-year-old tallied 16 goals and 33 assists in 82 games, and while those numbers are respectable, they are a far cry from how he used to produce back when he won the Art Ross Trophy in 2014-15.
That being said, most players fall off in their 30s. It’s no surprise that this has happened to Benn, but he can still produce at five-on-five, and there is value in him remaining with the Stars if they can find cap space and opt to bring him back. Benn is completing the final season of an eight-year contract that paid him $9.5MM annually, and he said in October that he intended to play out his contract and see where things go (as per TSN), but the Stars have expressed interest in retaining him. AFP Analytics is projecting a two-year deal for Benn at $4.8MM per season, which would take up nearly all of Dallas’ remaining cap space and only allow them to sign one more player at the league minimum. They’ll need to move out salary to retain Benn or let him walk into free agency.
The Stars must also contend with forward Evgenii Dadonov’s free agency as the 36-year-old is set to hit the market as a UFA. Dadonov had an off year during the 2023-24 season but bounced back this year with 20 goals and 20 assists in 80 games. The veteran will likely seek a two-year deal, and AFP Analytics has him projected to earn a two-year contract in the range of $3.25MM annually, making it challenging for Dallas to slot him into their salary cap ledger.
So, what can the Stars do? Well, if they hope to bring back any of these three men, they will likely need to find a way to move on from a player such as Tyler Seguin and his $9.85MM cap hit or move out a combination of veterans such as Matt Dumba ($3.75MM) and Mason Marchment ($4.5MM).
Seguin would be a difficult player to trade, as only a handful of teams could afford to take on his salary, and those teams are unlikely to be ones for which Seguin would waive his no-movement clause (NMC). Seguin has two years left on his contract and is still productive when he can play. This past year, he was limited to just 20 games, but he still managed to pile up nine goals and 12 assists. In contrast, last year, when he was in better health, he scored 25 goals and added 27 assists in 68 games. Seguin is 33 and no longer an All-Star, but he remains a solid top-six player that Dallas will want to (and have to) hang onto.
The most likely moves involve moving on from several veterans. The aforementioned Dumba is a good candidate to move as he has no trade protection, and right-shot defensemen are always in demand. Dumba had a decent season with the Stars in sheltered minutes and could draw some trade interest even though he’s been a healthy scratch in the playoffs thus far. The Stars could certainly replace what Dumba does by committee, as they have Lian Bichsel ready to make the jump to the NHL full-time, and although he is a left-shot defender, the Stars could shift some bodies around to make it work. They are already using Alex Petrovic over Dumba in these playoffs, so cutting that cost would be a big move to get under the cap and bring a veteran back into the fold on an extension.
Beyond Dumba and Seguin is where the Stars’ options become murky. Sure, they could look at Marchment as he has one year left on his contract, but given that he can play top-six minutes and brings a lot to the table, the Stars might not have an appetite to move him while they are trying to contend.
Whatever happens in Dallas, the Stars will look different next season, but it’s unlikely that they care now. The Stars will remain contenders next season even if they let all their veteran UFAs walk, as they have a young core in their prime that is under contract and set to continue their strong play.
Photo by Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
Honestly, outside of Jamie Benn, I think they let veterans like Duchene & Dadonov walk to FA. Dumba will definitely will be moved out as $3.75M is money that can be used elsewhere for sure. I don’t see Seguin or Marchment being moved as they are solidly producing overall. I think they look to get a bit younger but with talents who have experience.
Dallas is in a championship window timeframe as they’ve developed & created a solid core (ex. Rantanen, Robertson, Johnston, Hintz, etc) that’s going to be competing for the Cup for at least the remaining years of this decade. Dallas is in good shape moving ahead & GM Jim Nils is one of the better GMs in the league. I don’t think Dallas fans have much to worry about heading towards next season.
spot on with that
I think they resign Duchene to a 2/8 deal. Hard to get a player to forego that much salary again – better to take advantage. Some combination of Dumba, Marchment, and Dada should work fine. There a teams in worse spots with worse GMs :) You stars are fine.
Seguin probably would veto, but he’s probably a secondary target for the Canucks; while they should have eyes for Bourque I don’t see Dallas itching to move him when they’ve got so many past-their prime guys…
To SJ: Dumba, Marchment, 2027 2nd or equivalent prospect like Christian Kyrou or Justin Hryckowian
To DAL: Couture, who can be LTIRetired and add 8M in spending flexibility
They could do a similar swap for the last year of Price’s LTIR contract, which does not mix well with the Habs having several ELC players who will hit their performance bonuses.