These NHL Free Agents Will Get Overpaid This Summer

July 1 is often when an NHL general manager makes moves that they will regret later, and frequently, they spend years trying to correct them. This summer is no different, as teams will overpay many unrestricted free agents. There is perhaps no better recent example of this than Pittsburgh Penguins GM Kyle Dubas, who has done tremendous work the past two years but hasn’t been able to undo the series of poor moves he made on July 1, 2023, when he signed Tristan Jarry, Ryan Graves and Noel Acciari to long-term deals. Signings such as these can alter the direction of a franchise and hitch the team to financial commitments that haunt them long-term. Last summer’s big free-agent winner was the Nashville Predators, but they quickly discovered that winning in July doesn’t always translate to winning during the season.

This is the first year in some time that there has been a significant increase in the salary cap, with agents and UFAs salivating at the potential dollars they can rein in this summer. The days of skilled veterans settling for one-year deals just above league minimum may become a thing of the past, leading to more free agents signing contracts they could never live up to. Let’s look at the players who will likely get overpaid this summer using AFP Analytics’ projections for 2025-26 cap hits based on next year’s $95.5MM upper limit.

In combing through AFP’s work, a number that jumps out is the projection for Vancouver Canucks forward Brock Boeser. AFP is projecting a seven-year deal worth $9.05MM per year for the 28-year-old, which looks pretty optimistic for a player who has topped 30 goals in a season just once and has only topped the 60-point plateau once. Boeser is not a player who can drive a line by himself; he is a shooter and can also go into slumps at 5-on-5. A cap hit north of $9MM for Boeser would almost certainly become a future buyout like Jeff Skinner’s contract was. Boeser may not get $9MM per, but teams are always in search of scoring, and someone will step up and overpay for his services.

No disrespect to Sam Bennett; he is a terrific player who has become an essential piece of a perennial Stanley Cup contender. But he will likely be overpaid this summer if he decides to leave the Florida Panthers. AFP’s projection is a six-year deal for $6.3MM per season, which seems a little light for Bennett unless he signs in a state with a more favorable income tax structure, such as Florida. Even at that projection, Bennett might live up to his AAV for the first two or three years of the deal. Still, beyond that, his style of play will likely catch up to him, making the final years of his deal difficult to deal with. Bennett will be 29 in June, and a six-year deal will take him until he’s 35, at which point it’s hard to know what his game will look like.

Mikael Granlund’s value is hard to gauge because fit is essential to his production. He was a terrible fit with the Penguins when he was acquired two years ago at the trade deadline and produced just five points in 21 games. That trade for a second-round pick was ultimately the final straw for the Penguins as they fired general manager Ron Hextall shortly after he made the move. Granlund was then dealt to San Jose, where he produced top-six numbers and was one of their top scorers before another trade to Dallas in February. Granlund has been a decent fit with the Stars, scoring 21 points in 31 games. The knock on Granlund is that he doesn’t do much away from the puck and can’t drive a line alone despite good playmaking abilities. He is a terrific passer, but aside from that, his game is limited. He isn’t slow, but he is an average skater at best.

Despite all of this, he puts up numbers, and he will surely find an NHL GM who will look at that and pay up. He won’t get a four-year deal, but he may secure a three-year contract around his current cap hit of $5MM. AFP’s projection for Granlund is a two-year deal at $4.6MM per season, which looks pretty realistic, if not a bit on the lighter side, given the rising salary cap. Whoever signs Granlund needs to play him on the power play and in the top six; otherwise, they will wind up like the Penguins in 2023 and searching for a salary dump.

Blue Jackets forward Luke Kunin is next on our list and is projected by AFP to wind up on a two-year deal for $2.1MM per season. Kunin can hit, and that’s about it. His game impact is minimal, and $2.1MM is a wild number for a player as limited as he is. Kunin doesn’t put up points and has played mainly on the fourth line, getting caved in on the possession front while doing so. He hasn’t been helped by his deployment, starting his shifts in the defensive zone 56.8% of the time this year at even strength, but that has a negligible impact on his overall numbers. Signing Kunin to that deal won’t break a team, but it certainly won’t help a contending team build a competent bottom six.

Jonathan Drouin has had two straight solid seasons with the Colorado Avalanche and should receive a significant raise this summer from the $2.5MM he played for this year. Since joining the Avalanche, the 30-year-old has posted 30 goals and 63 assists in 122 games while playing 15:23 a game. Drouin has been a good fit with Colorado and is projected by AFP to get a contract in the four-year range with a cap hit of $5.87MM.

Drouin had to settle for a one-year deal last summer and should have multi-year offers this year. While he has recaptured his game, he has dressed just 43 times this season and has been inconsistent throughout his career. Any team paying him nearly $6MM a season for four years would take a massive gamble that could be a contract to buy out in a few seasons. Teams were cautious with Drouin last summer, and it’s not hard to imagine teams capping their offers at two or three years, but all it takes is one team that is desperate for scoring to get to Drouin’s projected contract numbers.

Finally, on the back end, one defenseman is primed to be overpaid again on the free agent market: Cody Ceci of the Dallas Stars. Ceci is in the final year of a four-year deal he signed in 2021 with a $3.25MM cap hit. That contract was initially projected to be a problem, and it became an issue for the Oilers last summer when they dealt the 31-year-old to San Jose in a salary cap-fueled move.

Ceci’s next deal could turn out to be even more problematic. The Ottawa, Ontario, native is projected by AFP to earn $11MM on a three-year contract, which is quite the price for a depth defenseman who needs to be sheltered to be effective. Ceci was okay with the Oilers when they moved him away from Nurse, but he should not be counted on for anything more than depth minutes in a No. 5-6 role.

In the net, goaltending will be challenging in the free-agent market as the options include reclamation projects, career backups, and Jake Allen. Allen figures to get a chunk of change in free agency, but will not see starter’s money despite having a great year in New Jersey. Beyond that, it’s hard to imagine any team committing significant dollars to the available netminders.

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