Toronto Maple Leafs forward Mitch Marner is just three months away from becoming an unrestricted free agent, and with each passing day, the likelihood that he will test the market increases. But will he choose to leave the only NHL team he has ever played for? Only Marner knows the answer, but many factors are involved in this complicated situation. Many people will point to earning potential as the main factor in why Marner might test free agency, but there are personal and professional reasons why he might feel the time is right to look elsewhere.

As Marner showed during his last contract negotiations in 2019, he and his agent were willing to be patient in getting their number. Those negotiations spilled well into September before the 27-year-old signed a six-year, $65.358MM contract extension. An interesting note from those discussions was that Marner received several offer sheets from other teams at the time but did not entertain those offers as he prioritized staying with Toronto. This time around, Marner can get any NHL team involved in negotiations if he waits until July 1, which should lead to loftier contract demands on a longer term. It’s worth noting that Marner’s agent, Darren Ferris, has a history of bringing clients right to the deadline when negotiating (see William Nylander).

Marner’s current AAV of just under $11MM represented 13.37% of the NHL salary cap at the time, and with the rising cap, it would not be unreasonable for him to ask for the same number as a UFA. If he did, he would be looking at a contract with a cap hit of $12.77MM, a tick lower than teammate Auston Matthews’ cap hit of $13.25MM. For context, Matthews’ contract represented 15.07% of the salary cap when he signed it. Marner would be taking a smaller slice of the pie.

Matthews and Nylander have both signed pricey extensions. While Marner is undoubtedly a game-changer, it would be tough to commit to those three once again, given that they haven’t advanced past the second round of the playoffs, which hinders salary cap flexibility. There is a fair argument that you pay your stars and figure out the depth as you go, but eventually, those depth players also need to get paid, as Toronto has found out over the last few years. The Maple Leafs don’t have a lot of help coming from their farm system, evidenced by their recent ranking as the 28th-best prospect pool in the NHL (per Scott Wheeler of The Athletic), which means they will need to make trades or sign players in free agency to fill out their depth. If they have tied up 40% of their cap space in three players, adding free agents or taking chances on players who underperform but have upside will become increasingly challenging – not to mention re-signing pending RFA Matthew Knies or former captain John Tavares.

Marner is from and knows the fishbowl that is the Greater Toronto Area. When the team wins, the players are treated as heroes; however, the opposite can be true when the team drops games. The last sentence is especially relevant in the playoffs, where the Maple Leafs have suffered through years of postseason disappointments. If Toronto endures another early playoff exit, Marner could be tempted to leave Toronto and try to win elsewhere. In the past, Marner has dealt with heavy criticism from fans and media in Toronto, which could push him to seek a less intense market or one where he could enjoy some anonymity away from the rink. The pressure of playing in a Canadian market is well documented, and it can create fatigue, particularly for a player who has spent his entire career in that environment.

Former Maple Leafs general manager Kyle Dubas was close to Marner in Toronto. Now Brad Treliving has taken over with Dubas in Pittsburgh, and it’s hard to say whether Marner will have the same loyalty during negotiations. Some folks in Pittsburgh have speculated that Dubas and the Penguins will make a run at signing Marner this summer, but given where Pittsburgh is in their retooling, it’s hard to see them adding a player of Marner’s caliber just yet. The Penguins are still a few years from being ready to contend for a playoff spot and likely don’t look desirable to Marner outside of his relationships with Dubas and Penguins captain Sidney Crosby.

Yet Marner has spent his entire professional career with the Leafs and his whole playing career in Canada. Marner played junior hockey in nearby London and has not lived more than a few hours from the GTA. Although athletes often move away from their hometowns, they typically don’t begin this process when nearing 30. This is not to say it doesn’t happen; it’s just unusual.

With a rising cap, plenty of teams can afford Marner, but how many can offer a better situation than Marner currently has in Toronto? Sure, Buffalo and Pittsburgh could afford him, but the Sabres haven’t made the playoffs in nearly a decade and a half, and Pittsburgh is retooling and likely won’t field a winner for another few years.

San Jose could make a compelling pitch, as Marner would have a chance to play with Macklin Celebrini and Will Smith. But Marner already has talented former top picks to play with and has the added comforts of home and familiarity. Carolina will be another interested party, but it seems like an unlikely destination, given that Marner reportedly turned down a trade to the Hurricanes a few weeks ago.

Toronto remains very much inside its competitive window with a core that still includes Matthews, Nylander, Morgan Rielly and company. And while the core has not had much playoff success, winning just one series ever, they have been a terrific regular season team for nearly a decade. The great teams almost always suffer heartbreak in the postseason before they figure out how to win when it matters, and the Maple Leafs could be a team that does that if Marner remains along for the ride. Toronto has most of their squad already locked in to return next season and could get a couple of runs at the Stanley Cup with this group.

Toronto has arguably overpaid all its stars over the past decade and has struggled to get players to take a discount to remain with the Maple Leafs. In fairness to Toronto’s management, if the Maple Leafs didn’t step up and pay their stars, someone else would have. The case is the same with Marner; if he reaches the market, another team will meet his asking price. It is the inevitability of unrestricted free agency, and the Maple Leafs will have to get close to Marner’s price if they want to keep him.

Plenty of NHL players have found out the hard way that the grass isn’t always greener with a new team, and those free-agent dollars can sometimes become an anchor that brings a player down. The familiarity of playing in your hometown for tens of millions of dollars and not having to start over in a new city feels as though it should be enough to keep Marner in Toronto. So, too, does the personal side of things, as players prefer playing closer to home as they age and begin having families.

Still, each passing day ultimately narrows the possibility of a return just a little bit more. However, the Maple Leafs remain the favorite to sign Marner long-term, as the allure of chasing a Stanley Cup with his hometown team will be too much to pass up.

Photo courtesy of Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images.