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Chicago Wolves Win 2022 Calder Cup

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The Chicago Wolves have won the 2022 Calder Cup, winning their series against the Springfield Thunderbirds in five games. This is the first Calder Cup to be won since the Charlotte Checkers captured the honor in 2019. The Wolves are the AHL affiliate of the Carolina Hurricanes, making the Hurricanes the first team to have their affiliate win back-to-back Calder Cups since the Washington Capitals’ affiliate, the Hershey Bears, won in 2008-09 and 2009-10.

The Wolves were a high-scoring, high-flying machine for most of this season. They went 50-16-10, and led the AHL with 110 points. The Wolves are an independently owned team that prioritizes winning above all else in a league where player development is for many the number-one goal. That strategy has led them to success this year, and it’s their veterans that have led the way for them.

Forward Andrew Poturalski, the Wolves’ captain, won the Calder Cup with the Checkers in 2019 and led the Wolves in scoring with 101 points. Former New Jersey Devil Stefan Noesen potted 48 goals in the regular season and Josh Leivo, a veteran of 214 NHL games, scored 15 goals in the Wolves’ playoff run to capture the Jack Butterfield Trophy for AHL playoff MVP.

This victory over the Thunderbirds undoubtedly puts Wolves coach Ryan Warsofsky in the spotlight, as he’s now won two Calder Cups since becoming an AHL coach in 2019.  He won his first as an assistant on the Checkers’ 2019 staff. Warsofsky has a 105-47-10 record as an AHL head coach and a 88-44-12 record as an ECHL coach. While it’s unlikely that he gets one of the current head coaching vacancies, he’s definitely a candidate to keep an eye on for next year’s cycle.

This is the Wolves’ third Calder Cup. They last won in 2008 and also captured the 2001-02 Calder Cup.

Jets Notes: Dubois, Scheifele, Coaching Search

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Ever since it was reported earlier this week that Winnipeg Jets forward Pierre-Luc Dubois had informed his team of his intentions to test free agency in 2024, it seemed likely that the Dubois storyline would be a major one for this offseason. Now, we have some additional details on Dubois’ choice regarding his future. Murat Ates of The Athletic believes that Dubois “quite sincerely” wants to test free agency, and has “not been shy” about communicating that desire to the team, as well as a desire to play in Montreal “in the long run” specifically. (subscription link)

Ates specifically mentioning Montreal confirms what many had believed about Dubois, that he had his eyes on playing in his home province. Dubois actually was almost drafted by the Canadiens at the 2016 draft, but the Blue Jackets took him third overall, which scuttled that possibility. Now, Dubois could be attempting to finally find his way to the Canadiens. The Canadiens have the opportunity to solidify a Nick Suzuki and Shane Wright one-two punch down the middle at the draft next month, so it’s fair to wonder if the Canadiens’ choice at number-one overall at the draft will ultimately have an impact on Dubois’ future in Winnipeg.

Now, for some other notes about the Jets:

  • One other situation worth monitoring in Winnipeg is the situation of first-line center Mark Scheifele. Ates reports that Scheifele’s name has “made it into preliminary trade conversations,” and further adds on that a contentious exit meeting between the forward and the Jets front office could broaden the fracture between the Jets and their other star center. Centers who can score at above a point-per-game rate, as Scheifele has for the past half-decade, are rarely made available on the trade market or in free agency. Teams looking for center help this offseason could add Scheifele’s name to their possible options, and any deal with him involved is sure to have a major impact on the futures of both the acquiring team and the Jets.
  • In the midst of news on Dubois, Scheifele, and Blake Wheeler, the ongoing Jets coaching search may have taken a bit of a back seat in the minds of Jets fans. It has become clear that widely reported number-one choice Barry Trotz won’t be an option, and that has left the Jets to sort through the remaining candidates to find their next bench boss. Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports that the following coaches are on the Jets’ radar for the job: two former Manitoba Moose head coaches in Scott Arniel and Pascal Vincent and two former NHL head coaches in Rick Tocchet and Jim Montgomery.

Free Agent Focus: Minnesota Wild

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Free agency is now less than a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in mid-July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Next up is a look at the Wild.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Kevin Fiala — Fiala might be the most high-profile casualty of GM Bill Guerin’s decision to buy out both Ryan Suter and Zach Parise last offseason. The Wild are facing a $6.3MM cap penalty from each of Parise and Suter’s buyouts for next season, and that figure rises to $7.3MM for the next two seasons after 2022-23. So, that has meant that the Wild have essentially acknowledged their reality with Fiala, that they can’t afford the long-term deal he could get from elsewhere and that the best option for both the team and player is a trade this offseason. So, for the Wild, Fiala’s restricted free agency isn’t about what his next contract will look like but is instead about what the return for him will be in a trade. Fiala had 85 points in 82 games this past year and drove the Wild’s second line. Fiala will face questions about his game, namely regarding his playoff woes, as he had only one playoff goal over the past two seasons. Additionally, there is the fair question of how a Fiala-led line would produce outside of an environment where they have another top line to absorb the opposing team’s toughest defensive matchups, as the Kirill Kaprizov line did in Minnesota. But even with those questions, Fiala is in line to be paid this summer, especially when one considers the additional leverage he will hold over any team that acquires him via trade.

D Jacob Middleton — The Wild made a slew of trade deadline additions in order to bolster their squad, and one of their lower-profile pickups was acquiring Middleton from the San Jose Sharks. The Wild surrendered goalie Kaapo Kahkonen in the deal, someone who was once considered to be the Wild’s “goalie of the future.” Guerin’s willingness to part with Kahkonen to get Middleton is an indication of how firmly he believed in Middleton’s fit in Minnesota. Middleton, 26, was brought to the Wild because of his physicality and overall defensive game. He averaged just under 18 minutes per night as a member of the Wild and also featured on their penalty kill. The Wild clearly like what Middleton brings, meaning an extension with some term attached can’t be ruled out. The presence of the buyouts obviously complicates things, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility that Middleton gets a contract between $2MM-3MM to stay in Minnesota, contracts similar to the ones other defense-first blueliners such as Tucker Poolman, Dylan DeMelo and Derek Forbort received.

Other RFA’s: F Mitchell Chaffee, F Nick Swaney, D Fedor Gordeev, G Dereck Baribeau

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

G Marc-Andre Fleury — The Wild acquired the 2021 Vezina Trophy winner at the trade deadline and alternated between him and Cam Talbot for the rest of 2021-22. The Wild are interested in a return for that tandem, but Fleury may be able to earn a larger contract from elsewhere. Fleury did not play to Vezina Trophy form last year, but he was still solid, especially after his trade to the Wild. He didn’t have a great playoffs, but few on the Wild did, and Fleury is at the point in his career where a small dip in performance isn’t likely to tank his earning potential anyway. Fleury is still widely viewed as a starting-caliber goalie, so while he’ll turn 38 later this year a retirement doesn’t seem to be in the cards just yet. What Fleury makes on the open market this offseason will likely depend on if he prioritizes fit over cost on his next contract and therefore whether he is willing to take a smaller contract in order to sign with the team he prefers.

F Nicolas Deslauriers — While the NHL is about speed and skill more than ever before, there is still room in the league for players like Deslauriers and his trip to unrestricted free agency will likely reflect that. The Wild acquired Deslauriers near the deadline to add some grit to their team, and Deslauriers did just that. He didn’t do very much else, with only three goals and zero assists in his 25 total games with the Wild, but that’s what’s about expected from Deslauriers, given that he has only 85 points in over 500 career games. Some fans might scoff at the idea of their team bringing Deslauriers in as a free agent, but he’s clearly valued by the league’s decision-makers and liked by his coaches. A return to Minnesota is definitely possible, although they could prefer to divert as many cap dollars as possible to scoring help in order to compensate for the expected loss of Fiala, which would then push Deslauriers out.

F Nick Bjugstad — Bjugstad, a Minneapolis native, is no longer the player that scored nearly 50 points on Aleksander Barkov’s wing in Florida. Major injury woes have taken their toll on Bjugstad’s play, and since scoring 49 points in 2017-18 Bjugstad hasn’t crossed the 20-point mark since. In Minnesota, Bjugstad has stabilized his career and become a semi-regular face in the Wild’s bottom-six. He didn’t play well enough this past year to earn a spot in the Wild’s postseason lineup, and despite his bottom-six role he has not featured on the Wild’s penalty kill. Bjugstad played on a $900k cap hit last season and, if Minnesota is interested, should be available to them at a similar number for next season.

Other UFA’s: D Jordie Benn, F Brandon Baddock, F Kyle Rau, F Nolan Stevens, F Dominic Turgeon, D Jon Lizotte, G Zane McIntyre

Projected Salary Cap Space

This is the area where the Wild face their greatest challenge. The previously mentioned buyouts of Suter and Parise have left Guerin and the Wild’s front office operating with a significantly lower effective salary cap than other clubs. The buyouts will cost the team nearly $13MM in cap space this offseason and $15MM for the next two after this summer. As a result, the Wild have only $6.5MM in projected cap space this summer. Trading defensemen with only one year left on their deals such as Dmitry Kulikov or even Matt Dumba could give them some more room, but whatever way you cut it the Wild will find it difficult to make major additions in the next few offseasons without some real creativity involved.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Snapshots: Dubois, Papirny, HHOF

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Winnipeg Jets forward Pierre-Luc Dubois made headlines yesterday when his desire to test free agency in two year’s time was reported by Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet. Today, Friedman elaborated on his report, taking a wider view on Dubois’ situation in general. Friedman specifically pointed to Jets GM Kevin Cheveldayoff’s approach to other players who had their eyes on playing elsewhere, such as Jacob Trouba, to reveal how Cheveldayoff could approach the Dubois situation. In the face of Dubois’ desire to test the market in two years, it seems that no trade is imminent. Per Friedman, the Jets hope that Dubois will “be a Jet for a long time,” and will likely attempt to do whatever possible to change Dubois’ mind and get his signature on a long-term deal.

Dubois is an extremely talented player, and it’s easy to see why the Jets would want to do anything they could to change Dubois’ mind and keep him in Winnipeg. The Jets surrendered both Patrik Laine and Jack Roslovic in order to secure Dubois’ services, and him leaving in free agency would be a major blow to the franchise. It’s a difficult situation for Winnipeg because ultimately Dubois does have the power to choose where he wants to play. If his heart is truly not in Winnipeg, the choice to hold on to Dubois and hope he changes his mind could be an incredibly costly one for the Jets. Cheveldayoff is an experienced GM who has gone through similar situations to this one before. How well he is able to handle this Dubois complication will be a major factor in determining how quickly the Jets can return to contention.

Now, for some other notes from across the league:

  • The Vegas Golden Knights made a big move today, taking a top UFA winger off the market with a three-year extension for Reilly Smith. The Golden Knights’ AHL affiliate, the Henderson Silver Knights, also made a signing today, inking goaltender Jordan Papirny to an AHL contract for the 2022-23 season. (per The Athletic’s Jesse Granger) While this signing may seem a bit curious at first glance since Papirny has only two professional games played on his record, the rationale behind it becomes a bit more clear when you do some digging. Papirny shared the crease with current Vegas goalie Logan Thompson in his time with the Brandon Wheat Kings of the WHL, and his head coach was Kelly McCrimmon, the current Golden Knights’ GM. Papirny, 26, had his most success last season playing Canadian college hockey in the ACAC, where he had an 11-0-0 record and a .948 save percentage with the Northern Alberta Institute of Technology.
  • Today, the Hockey Hall of Fame announced details of this year’s selection announcement, with the 2022 class’ reveal set to be broadcast on Monday on TSN and NHL Network. The currently eligible players give a potential 2022 class some real star potential, with names such as Roberto Luongo, Henrik Sedin, Daniel Sedin, and Rick Nash entering the field, and familiar names such as Daniel Alfredsson and Alexander Mogilny hoping that this year will be the year their names are enshrined in Toronto.

Free Agent Focus: Nashville Predators

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Free agency is now less than a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in mid-July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Next up is a look at the Predators

Key Restricted Free Agents:

F Yakov Trenin – Don’t let his point total fool you, Trenin was a breakout player this past season for the Predators and one of the better stories of their year. The 25-year-old Russian winger entered this campaign without much expectation, his eleven points in 45 games in 2020-21 not exactly setting the stage for him to become an important member of the team. But that’s exactly what Trenin did, as he established himself as a full-time NHL-er and an embodiment of the team identity coach John Hynes wants to see out of his Predators. You would be hard-pressed to find an NHL-er that plays with more passion than Trenin, and his fit on a crash-and-bang line with Tanner Jeannot and Colton Sissons entertained fans in Nashville all year. Trenin scored 17 goals this year and added three playoff goals in the team’s brief four-game postseason run. While he had only seven assists all year, Trenin’s goal-scoring, energy, and penalty killing (he averaged 1:40 shorthanded ice time per game, which ranked fourth among Predators forwards) proved valuable for Nashville, and those are the qualities that will help him in negotiations this summer.

Trenin is an arbitration-eligible free agent, meaning he does have some leverage, although his negotiations with Nashville probably won’t get to the point where arbitration is needed. It’s tough to find a perfect contract comparable for Trenin because what he brings to the table is so unique, especially within the context of the Predators and the team identity they want to have. A short or medium-term deal at around a $2MM-3MM AAV would make sense, as Trenin may not want to lock himself into a deal that takes him into his thirties while he has under 150 games of NHL experience.

F Luke Kunin – Kunin ranked eighth amongst Predators forwards in time-on-ice per game, and was fifth when excluding the aforementioned Trenin-Sissons-Jeannot line, a line that stuck together and played a very specific role for most of the season. So Kunin, a 2016 first-round pick, did not spend 2021-22 lacking the opportunity to be a difference-maker and put together a productive campaign. What he lacked was the ability to take advantage of that opportunity and fulfill the promise that saw him get drafted between Charlie McAvoy and Jakob Chychrun. Kunin had only 22 points in his full 82-game season this year, and that’s despite offensive resurgences from forwards across the Predators’ top-six, players like Matt Duchene, Ryan Johansen, and Mikael Granlund, the guys Kunin frequently shared the ice with. So that leaves him in a curious position entering the offseason, where he is an arbitration-eligible restricted free agent. This was a crucially important season for Kunin, who will turn 25 next year. His inability to seize the opportunities he’s been given has raised questions over whether his future is in Nashville long-term. Kunin comes with a $2.3MM qualifying offer, which isn’t a huge amount but also not an insignificant number. While it’s possible that the Predators and Kunin enter next season together, it would not be a surprise if he was headed elsewhere this summer.

F Cody Glass – While Kunin represents a first-round reclamation project of sorts that hasn’t gone well for the Predators, Glass is an example of a first-round reclamation project that has shown promise. Glass was acquired from the Vegas Golden Knights last summer in exchange for Nolan Patrick, who Nashville was able to send to Vegas thanks to the Ryan Ellis deal with the Philadelphia Flyers. Glass, 23, was the sixth-overall pick in 2017 and had been a lethal junior scorer, but his professional career had been derailed by injuries and inconsistency. The Predators likely believed that a change of scenery was what Glass needed, and they may have been right. Glass has thrived since the trade. He led the AHL Milwaukee Admirals in scoring with 62 points in 66 games and even earned a brief NHL call-up. A short, cheap extension for Glass makes the most sense for this season, as the Predators will definitely want to see if he can finally stick in the NHL full-time before beginning to think about any possibility of a long-term deal.

Other RFA’s: F Matt Luff, F Jimmy Huntington, F Thomas Novak, F Cole Smith, D David Farrance, G Devin Cooley

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

F Filip Forsberg – Right now, it seems as though the Predators’ offseason is entirely centered around what happens with Forsberg and his next contract, and GM David Poile seemed to acknowledge as much in his comments today. Forsberg is among the Predators’ most important players. A highly-skilled offensive dynamo, Forsberg had a career year this past season, scoring 84 points in 69 games. He’s the Predators’ all-time leading goal-scorer and means so much to the organization both on and off the ice. But a deal has yet to be completed, and the team and player are reportedly far apart in their negotiations, paving the way for a departure. The Predators pay their captain, Roman Josi, just over $9MM AAV on his long-term deal. It’s definitely possible that the Predators simply do not want anyone on their books with a higher cap hit than Josi, and it’s also definitely possible that Forsberg believes he can earn a bigger contract than that on the open market. Fellow play-driving left winger Artemi Panarin got over $11MM AAV to sign with the New York Rangers, so perhaps Forsberg is eyeing a similar mega-deal. From the Predators’ perspective, it will be extremely hard to find a player who can replace Forsberg at a cost that won’t be significant in either dollars or assets, so in order to keep their core intact, they might need to pay more for Forsberg than they’d like to. This is a high-stakes, high-pressure situation, and one that will have a major ripple effect on the entire Predators franchise, regardless of the outcome. 

D Matt Benning – Benning, the nephew of former Vancouver Canucks GM Jim Benning, quietly had a decent season in 2021-22. His offense isn’t why he’s in the NHL, and he had only 11 points in 65 games, but when he got into the lineup he provided steady, responsible play at a reasonable price. Benning ranked third among Predators defensemen in shorthanded ice time per game and showed versatility in where he could be played within the lineup. With Mattias Ekholm and Josi’s pairings set in stone for most of the year, Benning managed a rotating cast of partners on the team’s bottom pairing and the Predators acquired Jeremy Lauzon from the Kraken in part to ease his defensive burden. Benning cost $1MM against the cap last year and could likely be had on a similar deal for next season.

Other UFA’s: F Nick Cousins, D Ben Harpur, G David Rittich, F Brayden Burke, F Rocco Grimaldi, F Kole Sherwood, D Alex Biega, D Jeremy Davies

Projected Cap Space:

The Predators are projected to have just above $21MM in open cap space this summer, a healthy amount for a playoff team with as many veterans as the Predators have. A new extension for Forsberg will take a chunk of that cap space, and a possible extension for Trenin is of note as well. But with players such as Josi and Juuse Saros, two players who are among the best in the NHL at their position, locked into contracts and other veteran difference-makers such as Duchene, Johansen, and Granlund also under contract for the foreseeable future, the Predators to have room to maneuver in this offseason’s market.

Obviously, any plan they have will start with Forsberg, but if he does end up walking, the Predators will have a stockpile of cap space in a flat-cap league where having space is at its most important. They still have extensions for Jeannot and Phillip Tomasino on the horizon, so they can’t be reckless. But even with those future negotiations in mind, Predators have a world of possibilities open to them this summer. So while the fate of the Predators’ most skilled forward is uncertain, the ability of Poile and the Predators to be a major player this offseason is not.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Avalanche Notes: Nichushkin, Burakovsky, Kadri

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The Colorado Avalanche lead the Tampa Bay Lightning two-to-nothing in the 2022 Stanley Cup Final, and a major reason for their lead has been the play of winger Valeri Nichushkin. The Russian winger, who once went 91 straight games without scoring a goal, scored two goals last night on top of a goal and an assist in Game One to raise his total to four points in the first two games of the series. Nichushkin has been a revelation in Colorado since returning to the NHL after a two-year KHL stint, and the former Dallas Stars top-ten pick had 25 goals and 52 points in 62 games. That performance has led many to believe that Nichushkin, a pending unrestricted free agent, will earn a long, lucrative contract this summer.

According to Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet, the Avalanche are hoping he can find a contract he likes in Colorado. Per Friedman, Colorado has “made him a priority” and have indicated to Nichushkin that they “would like to keep him.” The Avalanche have to hope that Nichushkin values his incredible fit in Colorado more than making the absolute most amount of money he can on his next deal. With Nathan MacKinnon’s inevitable mega-extension on the horizon and potential long-term deals for Nazem Kadri, Darcy Kuemper, Andre Burakovsky, and Artturi Lehkonen to consider this offseason, the Avalanche may not be in a position to offer Nichushkin the sort of money he could be offered from elsewhere. So while we don’t yet know exactly what Nichushkin is looking for this summer, we know the Avalanche are going to try their absolute best to keep him.

Now, for some other notes regarding Colorado:

  • Another important pending UFA in Colorado is winger Burakovsky, and like Nichushkin he has also had a strong start to the Stanley Cup Final. Burakovsky, who was once a healthy scratch in these playoffs, has three points against the Lightning so far, including two points last night despite missing a solid chunk of the game due to an injury. Avalanche coach Jared Bednar issued an update on Burakovsky’s injury today, saying that the winger did not travel with the team to Tampa, is undergoing further evaluation, and will join the team in Tampa tomorrow. While the Avalanche have a commanding lead in the series, the team is already without crucial players in Kadri and Samuel Girard, so they have to hope that whatever Burakovsky is dealing with won’t keep him out for long.
  • Speaking of Kadri, while it was once believed that he would be out for a period that would in all likelihood stretch past the end of the Avalanche’s season, that may no longer be the case. Bednar said today, per Joe Smith of The Athletic, that Kadri flew with the team to Tampa and is “hopeful” that he’ll play in the series. He said that he considered Kadri out “day-to-day” as well. The Avalanche are looking to capture the Stanley Cup for the first time since 2001, and are getting closer. But they have to know that the Lightning, the back-to-back defending champions, won’t go down without a fight. Getting Kadri back would go a long way towards giving the Avalanche the unshakeable confidence they’ll need to finish the job and end the Lightning’s time at the top of the league.

East Notes: Brown, Bratt, Sullivan

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Ottawa Senators forward Connor Brown didn’t have his most productive goal-scoring season, with only 10 in 64 games, but that didn’t stop him from having yet another solid campaign with the Senators. Despite the decline in goals, Brown’s point production remained in line with what’s typically expected of him, his .609 points-per-game this past season being nearly identical to his points-per-game marks from 2020-21 (.625) and 2019-20 (.605). In addition to that steady points production, Brown has been an important leadership figure on a young Senators team, providing the sort of two-way hockey that coaches can fall in love with. Now, one year away from a trip to unrestricted free agency, it seems Brown is looking to cash in.

According to Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet, Brown is “thinking about testing the market” next summer. Accordingly, Friedman notes that this news “punts the ball” into the Senators’ hands in terms of whether they should trade Brown to maximize the long-term value they can gain from him. With comparable players such as Blake Coleman or Artturi Lehkonen returning first-round picks or strong prospects in their own trades, the Senators could prefer a package similar to what the Montreal Canadiens and New Jersey Devils received for those players rather than risk letting Brown walk. Brown is on a $3.6MM cap hit, and he could become an especially desirable trade asset if the Senators offered to retain salary on him as well.

On other teams from the Eastern Conference:

  • Jesper Bratt has become a focal point of many discussions over the past week, with conflicting reports on whether he’d be a prime candidate to be traded this summer. The Devils’ breakout winger, who was nearly point-per-game this year, is a pending restricted free agent, and some, including Daily Faceoff’s Frank Seravalli, have speculated that he could have priced himself off of a team that is reportedly looking for more “hard skill” this offseason. Friedman, though, pumps the breaks a bit on that conversation. According to Friedman, Bratt and the Devils’ last contract negotiation was “a tough one,” and that both sides “really grinded” each other in the process. So, Friedman believes that, knowing how hard the last negotiation was between the team and player, “everybody’s kind of preparing for a tough one” this summer, and Bratt’s name surfacing in potential trade rumors is simply a natural part of a cutthroat negotiation process. That explanation would make a lot of sense since it’s hard to see the Devils, who still have a lot of room to work with under the salary cap, send away their team’s leading scorer just as he’s coming into his own as a superstar player.
  • Brian Burke, the President of Hockey Operations of the Pittsburgh Penguins, gave a wide-ranging interview to Mike DeFabo of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Among many topics he covered, one of the more interesting nuggets from the interview came when he was asked about the large number of coaching vacancies across the league. Burke spoke about the leaguewide vacancies, saying that, generally speaking, NHL clubs’ “ownership and management are too impatient on the coaching front.” He also reiterated his faith in coach Mike Sullivan, stating that they were “thrilled” with his work and view him as one of the best coaches in the NHL. So while some aggressively change-oriented fans might want to see a different coach behind the bench of the Penguins, who have not won a playoff series in four seasons, it doesn’t look like they’ll get their wish as long as the two-time Stanley Cup champion wants to coach in Pittsburgh.

Free Agent Focus: New York Rangers

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Free agency is now less than a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in mid-July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Next up is a look at the Rangers.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Kaapo Kakko — The 2019 second-overall pick’s adjustment to the NHL has been a bit slower than expected, and it’s been a struggle for him to translate the scoring talent he showed in Finland to the NHL level. In 157 career games, Kakko has 26 goals and 58 points, including 18 points in his 2021-22 campaign, a season where he missed a solid chunk of the Rangers’ games due to injury. Kakko enters his first free agency on mixed ground. The points aren’t there for him to get a lucrative, long-term deal, but he showed flashes of the upside that got him drafted so high in the first place during the Rangers’ run to the Eastern Conference Final, fitting in on a “kid line” with fellow first-rounders Filip Chytil and Alexis Lafreniere, a line that powered the Rangers past the Carolina Hurricanes before being ultimately broken up against Tampa Bay. Kakko’s puck protection skills and abilities along the boards are strong, and it’s definitely possible that after three years in the NHL he’s just on the cusp of finally producing offense. And with Valeri Nichushkin helping the Colorado Avalanche potentially lift the Stanley Cup in the coming days, he could serve as a cautionary tale in giving up too early on talented, toolsy top picks who don’t have the points to show for their strong play early in their careers. But on the other hand, it’s also very possible that Kakko’s tools never result in him producing significant offense. The Rangers need all the cap space they can get, so expect a one or two-year bridge deal at this point.

G Alexandar Georgiev — Before the arrival of Igor Shesterkin, there was once a time when Georgiev had a chance to be the heir to Henrik Lundqvist on Broadway. Georgiev’s first taste of NHL action went well, with a .918 save percentage in ten games, and his first two full-time seasons were similarly impressive, as Georgiev posted a .914 in 2018-19 and a .910 in 2019-20. 2020-21 was a bit shakier, and as Georgiev ceded more and more starts to Shesterkin his play began to suffer. He finished that year with a .905 in 19 games. This year, Georgiev had his worst season in New York, with a .898 save percentage in 33 games. He simply did not play to the level he’d shown an ability to play at in the past, and the strength of Shesterkin, the Vezina Trophy favorite, emphasized Geoorgiev’s failings even more. Georgiev is due a qualifying offer of $2.65MM, per CapFriendly, so it’s not a guarantee that Georgiev is even tendered an offer for the Rangers to retain his rights. If Georgiev is going to have a cap hit around that number next year, it probably won’t be in New York.

Other RFA’s: F Julien Gauthier, F Jacob Elmer, F Tim Gettinger, F Justin Richards, F Ty Ronning, F Austin Rueschhoff, D Libor Hajek, G Tyler Wall

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

F Ryan Strome — We previously covered the free agent situation of Ryan Strome in-depth, and it’s certainly a difficult situation for the Rangers to navigate. On one hand, Strome has fit extremely well in New York and produced like a strong top-six center. Over the past three seasons, Strome has 162 points in 200 games, which is a 66-point 82-game pace. Centers who can score in the 60-70 point range don’t hit free agency often, and when they do, they get paid. But Strome’s numbers do come with one slight asterisk: he’s been the linemate of Artemi Panarin, a superstar, play-driving offensive force. Panarin being mentioned isn’t meant in any way to downplay Strome’s skill — it’s not like you can just put any center on Panarin’s line and have him produce like Strome — but instead is meant to raise the question that Strome will need to answer this summer. Is he the play-driving, line-anchoring top-six center he’s produced like? Or is he more of a passenger, capable of piling up points when he gets the chance to ride shotgun next to elite scorers? The Rangers will be the first team that will need to ponder those questions as they consider whether to commit to Strome long-term.

F Andrew Copp — Copp was acquired from the Winnipeg Jets at the trade deadline, and he’s been everything the Rangers could have hoped for and more. Copp had 18 points in 16 games after the trade, and added on 14 points in 20 playoff games, giving him a grand total of 32 points in 36 games in New York. Before 2020-21, Copp was widely viewed as a defense-first, versatile forward who probably wouldn’t end up being an offensive difference-maker. But after putting up 39 points in 55 games during the pandemic-shortened 2020-21 season, his outlook has changed quite a bit. Now, he looks more like a true two-way force who can fit in a top-six. Given how well he played as a Ranger after the trade, it seems like staying in New York could be his best choice. But the Rangers will have a hard time finding enough cap space to keep both Strome and Copp, so they may end up having to choose one.

F Tyler Motte — Another member of the Rangers’ platoon of trade-deadline additions, Motte has endeared himself to both Rangers fans and fans of the team he became an NHL regular with, the Vancouver Canucks. It’s Motte’s hard-nosed, ever-active style of play that makes him so widely appreciated by both fans and coaches alike, but in the absence of offensive production, how much is that style of play worth? Motte had only 15 points in 58 games this season and only two in the Rangers’ playoff run. Offensive production isn’t what he’s in the NHL to provide, but it will put a ceiling on his earning power this summer. On the open market, it’s definitely possible that Motte could earn a deal with a decent term at around $1.5-2.5MM. Motte’s Rangers teammate, Barclay Goodrow, earned a long-term deal carrying a $3.6MM AAV coming off of a season where he had only five more points than Motte did this year, but Goodrow also had two Stanley Cup rings on his resume, an asset GM’s value highly and something Motte currently lacks. Wherever he ends up this summer, New York or elsewhere, look for Motte to quickly become a favorite of his coach and fanbase.

Other UFA’s: F Greg McKegg, F Kevin Rooney, F Frank Vatrano, D Justin Braun, F Anthony Greco, F Maxim Letunov, F Nick Merkley, G Adam Huska, G Keith Kinkaid

Projected Cap Space

This is where things get tricky for GM Chris Drury. The Rangers, on paper, are in decent shape. They have just under $12MM in projected cap space going into next season, a number that could rise even higher if they find a way out from under frequent healthy scratch Patrik Nemeth’s $2.5MM AAV deal. But just because New York has $12MM now doesn’t mean they can be just as active as they’ve been in the past. Next offseason, the Rangers will have both K’Andre Miller and Lafreniere hitting restricted free agency. The Rangers undoubtedly want to keep both in New York long-term, but spending significant money this offseason could make long-term deals for those two players nearly impossible. It could even be three players the Rangers want to lock up long-term if Chytil spends 2022-23 playing as he did against the Hurricanes. So while the Rangers definitely want to use this offseason to maximize their odds of overcoming the on-ice challenges they’ll face next spring, they can’t lose sight of the off-ice challenges they’ll face next summer. Those two (or three) looming deals could impact every choice the Rangers make in the next few months.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Free Agent Focus: Ottawa Senators

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Free agency is now less than a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in mid-July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Next up is a look at the Senators.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Joshua Norris — While Senators GM Pierre Dorion previously called the day he traded Mark Stone to the Vegas Golden Knights “one of the proudest” days he’d had in his career as a GM, it’s his trade of Erik Karlsson that was the real stroke of brilliance. Not only did the Senators receive the draft pick used to select budding star Tim Stutzle in exchange for their captain, they also received center Joshua Norris, who was then in his freshman season at the University of Michigan. Norris was drafted 19th overall in 2017 and has blossomed into a lethal goal scorer. With Brady Tkachuk at his side, Norris scored 35 goals this year and finished 2021-22 with 55 points in 66 games, a 68-point pace. Norris also showed some improvements in his defensive game. While Norris’ 20.3% shooting percentage is high enough to raise questions about the sustainability of his goal scoring, Norris did have a 17.7% shooting percentage in 2020-21 and some high-end goal scorers are simply capable of sustaining inflated shooting percentages thanks to their elite shooting talent. Norris could be in that category, and the Senators shouldn’t drag their feet in locking Norris down on a long-term deal. Montreal Canadiens center Nick Suzuki’s eight-year, $7.875MM extension could be a solid number for a maximum-term deal, and it would come under Tkachuk’s $8.2MM cap hit, meaning Norris wouldn’t be making more than the captain. The Senators may want something a bit cheaper, maybe along the lines of the five-year, $6.1MM AAV extension Dylan Larkin signed, but with comparable young centers like Suzuki and the New Jersey Devils’ Nico Hischier signing long-term deals north of $7MM AAV, expect any long-term deal for Norris to come in at around that number as well.

F Mathieu Joseph — Joseph is an extremely interesting case heading into this offseason. Earlier in the season, his offseason case would have looked pretty simple. As an arbitration-eligible restricted free agent, Joseph would have had the option to take whatever the arbitrator awarded him and inch closer to a trip to unrestricted free agency. But now, there could be more appetite to get an extension done from the team side of the equation, thanks to a mid-season trade to the Senators. Joseph arrived in Ottawa in exchange for Nick Paul and found immediate success there. He fit naturally next to Norris and Tkachuk, and in the first week of April Joseph had 10 points in just four games. It was that four-game stretch that served as an endorsement of Dorion’s belief in Joseph, and also serves as the root of uncertainty with Joseph entering this offseason. Do they pay him for what they think he can be? Or do they opt to let him take a one-year deal in order to see if the talent he flashed is there to stay? It’s a risky situation, because either option could easily end up being a mistake. If he plays as he did in that stretch over the course of a full season in Ottawa, his price skyrockets. But if the Senators commit now, there’s the chance that his scoring outburst was just a mirage, and they’ve overpaid for the idea of a player rather than the reality of the one they have. With all that in mind, Joseph seems like an under-the-radar pick for the most intriguing restricted free agent situation of the offseason.

F Alex Formenton — This past season was the year that winger Alex Formenton finally broke into the NHL full-time, and his impressive rookie year couldn’t have come at a better time, as he’s lined himself up for a nice raise from the $747k cap hit he played on last season. Formenton scored 18 goals and 32 points in 79 games last year, a goal total that ranked fourth on the Senators. Formenton’s speed is his best asset, and he got to show it off on the penalty kill. Formenton averaged just under 2 minutes of short-handed ice time per game, on a penalty kill that impressively ranked 13th in the NHL. Formenton looks like he could be a long-term asset in the Senators’ middle-six, providing valuable goal-scoring, speed, and special-teams ability. While a bridge deal is definitely possible, the Senators could also look to sign Formenton to a long-term deal in order to protect against any improvements to his game driving up his price.  Perhaps the best contract to use as a guide would be Buffalo Sabres forward Alex Tuch, who signed a seven-year, $4.75MM deal with the Golden Knights after a rookie season where he scored 15 goals and 37 points in 78 games, similar numbers to Formenton’s this year. $4.75MM is a lot to commit to Formenton for what he is now, but teams should be paying for what players are going to do, rather than what they’ve already done. Tuch quickly made his contract look like a steal and Formenton definitely has the talent to do the same.

Other RFAs: F Adam Gaudette, D Erik Brannstrom, G Michael McNiven

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

F Chris Tierney — Like Norris, Tierney also came to Ottawa as part of the Erik Karlsson trade. Unlike Norris, though, Tierney has played his way out of a long-term stay in Ottawa rather than played his way into one. Tierney’s first season with the Senators was a great follow-up to the promising final season he had with the Sharks. While he only scored nine goals, he finished with 48 points. While some expected the 24-year-old Tierney to build off of that season and have it serve as the baseline for the production that could be expected of him, Tierney regressed. First only a little, with a small decline in 2019-20 to only 37 points in 71 games. But it was 2020-21 where things really went downhill, as Tierney had only 19 points in 55 games, the lowest he’d ever marked in an NHL season. This year was no better, as he had 18 points in 70 games. Dorion stated at his end-of-season press conference that Tierney would not be extended in Ottawa, so he will look to find a role with another club seeking to unlock the potential he showed just a few years ago.

D Victor Mete — While Mete is technically a pending restricted free agent, Dorion has already stated that Mete would not be issued a qualifying offer and would therefore become an unrestricted free agent, hence him being listed here. Mete is an interesting case, as he’s the sort of player that, on paper, a team like Ottawa should be committing to developing. Mete, now 24, was once one of the Montreal Canadiens’ top defensive prospects, and he first made the NHL playing as Shea Weber’s partner. But while Mete’s abilities in transition as a puck-mover were always his calling card, no other aspect of his game developed as the Canadiens had hoped. Mete famously took 126 games to score his first NHL goal, and the lack of development of the rest of his tools, beyond his abilities in transition, caused the Canadiens to eventually waive him. Many were calling for teams to claim Mete, and the Senators did just that. But unfortunately for the Senators and Mete, it was more of the same in Ottawa, and by 2021-22 he found himself a frequent healthy scratch. Mete enters the offseason with the chance to choose his destination for the first time in his career, and given his history there still is some reasonable hope that he could develop into an NHLer. But the clock’s ticking on him, and the choice of his next destination will go a long way in determining if he’ll eventually turn into the NHL defenseman many once believed he could be.

Other UFA’s: F Tyler Ennis, F Andrew Agozzino, F Clark Bishop, F Scott Sabourin, F Zachary Senyshyn, F Logan Shaw, D Dillon Heatherington, D Zac Leslie

Projected Cap Space

This is where the Senators have an advantage over other teams. In a flat-cap era where having flexibility under the salary cap is at an absolute premium, Ottawa has over $20MM in projected cap space entering this offseason. Sure, a lot of that should be earmarked for potential extensions for Norris, Formenton, or even an early deal for Stutzle, but they’ll still have more room to maneuver than most teams. That’ll be especially true if they find a way to get out from under Matt Murray’s $6.25MM AAV deal. A buyout seems like the most likely solution, as it would not only save the Senators $5MM in real cash but also give them $4.5MM in cap savings this year and $5.5MM next year, at the cost of $2.5MM in dead money for the next two seasons after that. With the Senators looking to go hunting for a big name this offseason, expect their advantageous cap position to be leveraged to a great degree in order to maximize their ability to compete in the near future.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Notes: Trotz, Canadiens Draft Strategy, Kulak

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The biggest name left on the NHL coaching market is former New York Islanders head coach Barry Trotz. Trotz was fired by the Islanders after taking them to within arm’s reach of the Stanley Cup final for two straight seasons before missing the playoffs in 2021-22. The 2018 Stanley Cup champion has met with quite a few teams, with many eyeing Trotz’s hometown Winnipeg Jets as his potential landing spot. According to Pierre LeBrun on TSN’s Insider Trading panel, Trotz is expected to make a decision on his future “around July 1st,” and he is expected to weigh the opportunity of a “potential management role” with the Nashville Predators.

This option may not seem likely to many fans, as Trotz is an in-his-prime coach widely seen as one of the best in hockey. But TSN’s Darren Dreger adds that getting into management is something that Trotz has “been interested in for quite a while,” and a landing spot in Nashville, where he coached from their inaugural season in 1998 through 2014, seems like a perfect fit. There are already seismic changes set to come in Nashville, with new ownership confirmed for the near future, and perhaps Trotz re-joining the organization that started his NHL coaching career could be another step in a summer of major news for the Predators.

Now, for some other notes regarding this NHL offseason:

  • At first, it might seem as though the Montreal Canadiens are one of the few teams at the NHL Draft who are best situated to sit tight and make their draft picks at their allotted slots. But that may not be the route the team chooses. The Canadiens, who own the first-overall selection and host the draft itself, have a new President of Hockey Operations in Jeff Gorton. One thing that defined the later years of Gorton’s tenure as GM of the New York Rangers was his aggressiveness in trading up in the draft in order to secure desired players. In a video released by the Rangers as part of their 2020 draft coverage, Gorton can be seen imploring his draft war room to find players worthy of moving up for. Gorton traded up at the 2018 draft to secure defenseman K’Andre Miller, and also did so at the 2020 draft, in order to select defenseman Braden Schneider. Gorton’s Canadiens own 14 picks at the 2022 draft, and with that in mind, combined with the evidence of Gorton’s prior drafts, it seems clear that the Canadiens are a team to watch in terms of trading up. TSN’s Darren Dreger seems to agree, reporting that the Canadiens are “going to try and move up” at the draft. With the draft held in Montreal, the combination of the number-one pick and the home team’s desire to trade up could make this one of the more entertaining drafts in recent memory.
  • While the mid-season signing of Evander Kane soaked up all the headlines, the deadline-day acquisition of defenseman Brett Kulak could go down as Edmonton Oilers GM Ken Holland’s shrewdest move of 2022. While some scoffed at the idea of Holland dealing a second-round pick for a defenseman without an extremely long track record of proven NHL success, Holland’s bet was a solid one, as Kulak helped solidify Edmonton’s defense and provide steady, reliable play next to frequent partner Tyson Barrie. Pierre LeBrun reports on TSN that Holland has met with Kulak’s agent, Gerry Johannson, and that the Oilers “want to re-sign” Kulak. LeBrun does stipulate that the cap hit on any new contract must make sense for the Oilers, but since both Kulak and the Oilers reportedly want to finalize a reunion, it would definitely not be surprising to see Kulak return to his hometown Oilers on a new deal this summer.

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