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Archives for September 2023

Summer Synopsis: New York Islanders

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Last season saw the Islanders sneak into the playoffs in a tight Eastern Conference Wild Card race under first-year head coach Lane Lambert. They again struggled to put the puck in the net, failing to finish above 20th overall in goals scored yet again – a mark they haven’t achieved since John Tavares was their captain. With netminder Ilya Sorokin putting up a masterclass in the crease, however, they still rebounded after missing the playoffs in 2021-22 despite star forward Mathew Barzal missing most of the tail end of the season. They hope their offensive fortunes will change with a full season of both Barzal and Bo Horvat as they aim to rediscover the magic that led them to back-to-back Conference Final appearances in 2020 and 2021.

Draft

2-49: F Danny Nelson, USA U18 (NTDP)
4-113: F Jesse Nurmi, KooKoo (Finland U20)
5-145: F Justin Gill, Sherbrooke (QMJHL)
6-177: D Zach Schulz, USA U-18 (NTDP)
7-209: D Dennis Good Bogg, AIK (Sweden U20)

The Islanders were out two picks in this year’s rather deep draft and didn’t trade to recoup the ones they lost. Their first-round pick, 17th overall, was dealt to the Vancouver Canucks in the Horvat trade, who eventually flipped it to the Detroit Red Wings as part of the return for defenseman Filip Hronek. They conceded their third-round pick to the Arizona Coyotes two summers ago to get out of the tail end of forward Andrew Ladd’s contract, who officially announced his retirement yesterday. To no one’s surprise, the Islanders’ top pick was a distinct Lou Lamoriello archetype, as Nelson projects as a gritty, two-way center who fights for net-front scoring opportunities (and also stands at 6-foot-3 and over 200 pounds). Public scouts are split on his offensive ceiling at the NHL level, however, and he was a late riser up draft boards after recording seven points in seven games for the U.S. at the U18 World Juniors.

Nurmi, however, was quite a solid value pick in the fourth round and will battle for a full-time role in the Liiga with KooKoo after registering a point-per-game at the U18 World Juniors and notching 50 points in 41 games for KooKoo’s U20 club. Gill was the first of two over-age selections – a bit of a puzzling choice with only five selections to spare – but did have a breakout year in juniors with 44 goals and 93 points in 68 games, finishing ninth in QMJHL scoring. Already 20 years old, he projects to return to the QMJHL with Baie-Comeau after an offseason trade for an over-age season instead of turning pro. Schulz didn’t put up flashy point totals with the USNTDP, but he displayed consistent rush-defending instincts all season and will kick off his collegiate career at Wisconsin in 2023-24. Good Bogg, the Isles’ other over-age selection, looks to land a full-time roster spot with AIK in the second-tier Allsvenskan after skating in five games with them last season.

Trade Acquisitions

none

UFA Signings

F Pierre Engvall (seven years, $21MM)
F Julien Gauthier (two years, $1.575MM)
F Karson Kuhlman (one year, $775K)*
D Scott Mayfield (seven years, $24.5MM)
F Brian Pinho (one year, $775K)*
G Ilya Sorokin (eight years, $66MM) [extension, begins 2024-25]
G Semyon Varlamov (four years, $11MM)

*-denotes two-way contract

The Islanders were busy handing out cash this summer, albeit to retain existing talent. Lamoriello locked up his franchise-defining netminder through the 2031-32 campaign, and Sorokin will be the third-highest-paid active goalie in the league when his $8.25MM AAV extension starts in 2024. It’s the fourth-largest Lamoriello has signed in terms of total value throughout his lengthy career as an NHL GM, trailing the recently inked Horvat and Barzal extensions, as well as Ilya Kovalchuk’s 15-year, $100MM whopper signed with New Jersey in 2010. He has full no-move protection for the first half of the deal and a 16-team no-trade list in the latter half. Given he’s put up over a .920 save percentage for two straight seasons and during his two playoff appearances, it seems an extremely safe bet for a player likely to be their franchise cornerstone for the better part of the 2020s. Without much change to the team in front of him, expect Sorokin to put him strong numbers again in 2023-24, the last season they’ll have him at his bargain $4MM cap hit.

Mayfield got an eyebrow-raising long-term commitment. Although $3.5MM per season isn’t a gross overpayment for his services, he’ll be 37 when his contract ends and still has trade protection. He did, however, post a career-high 24 points last season and finishes out a strong right side on defense behind Noah Dobson and Ryan Pulock. Engvall also got a long-term commitment to make him a middle-six fixture on the Island for the rest of the decade. Acquired from the Toronto Maple Leafs before last season’s trade deadline, the 27-year-old Swede played out the season in a top-six role alongside Brock Nelson and notched five goals and nine points in 18 games. Varlamov also remains on an affordable cap hit to reprise his role as Sorokin’s mentor and backup through 2027, at which point retirement seems likely at age 39.

Gauthier and Kuhlman were brought in to fight for spots in the team’s bottom six alongside guys like Hudson Fasching, who enjoyed a breakout 2022-23 campaign. Kuhlman is a likely candidate to get waived and assigned to AHL Bridgeport if he doesn’t have an extremely strong camp, and he’ll be a major player there along with Pinho, whom the Islanders also signed to add some minor-league depth.

RFA Re-Signings

D Samuel Bolduc (two years, $1.6MM)
G Jakub Skarek (two years, $1.55MM)*
F Oliver Wahlstrom (one year, $874K)

*-denotes two-way contract

Missing the last 46 games of the 2022-23 season with a lower-body injury cost Wahlstrom in more ways than one. He was on pace for a career-high 37 points had he played a full season, but instead, the 2018 11th overall pick had to settle for a one-year contract equivalent to his qualifying offer after holding out two weeks into July. The toolsy 23-year-old has had his moments in the big leagues, but he’s arguably been under-utilized by his coaches on the Island while simultaneously not quite doing enough to lock down a top-six role. He has 61 points through 161 games thus far, but if he can come back healthy and break out in 2023-24, he’ll play a large part in solving the team’s scoring deficiencies.

Bolduc, 22, will likely start the season in the opening night lineup with Alexander Romanov’s recovery from offseason shoulder surgery still ongoing. He made his NHL debut last season, scoring three points in 17 games and making two playoff appearances. The team’s second-round pick in 2019 figured things out at the pro level last season, recording 35 points in 59 games with AHL Bridgeport. There were some visible growing pains in his NHL transitions and some mistakes he’ll need to clean up, but he’ll factor in as the team’s seventh defenseman when everyone is healthy and gain some valuable experience from being on the NHL roster.

Seeing Skarek receive a qualifying offer, let alone a two-year commitment was surprising. Entering his fifth pro season with AHL Bridgeport, he’s yet to post above a .900 save percentage and has just a 37-49-10 record at the AHL level (with a career .893 save percentage). What’s even more surprising is he’s currently slated to be Bridgeport’s starter and the Isles’ first call-up option should Sorokin or Varlamov go down with injury – they haven’t signed a veteran goalie to assume the AHL starting role. One has to assume that a signing will come this month.

Departures

F Collin Adams (Kalamazoo, ECHL)
F Andy Andreoff (Novosibirsk, KHL)
F Josh Bailey (trade with Chicago, subsequent buyout)
F Cole Bardreau (Bridgeport, AHL)
F Blade Jenkins (Worcester, ECHL)
F Jeff Kubiak (Bridgeport, AHL)
F Zach Parise (unsigned UFA)
D Parker Wotherspoon (Boston, one year, $775K)*

Bailey finishes out his Islanders career on a low note, but he still had a remarkable stint as one of the most consistent playmakers in franchise history, sitting fourth all-time in assists for the Islanders. After recording just 25 points in 64 games last season, however, his $5MM cap hit for next season was unjustifiable with the team in a financial crunch as is. Parise remains on the UFA list, and Lamoriello said earlier today he won’t be at training camp but isn’t ruling out an in-season return. He notched 21 goals on a bargain-bin deal last season and has played in all 164 games since joining the Islanders in 2021. The only other player on this list who skated in NHL games for the Islanders last season is Wotherspoon, who will move onto a minor-league role in the Bruins organization after recording an assist in 12 NHL games for New York.

Adams, Andreoff, Bardreau, Jenkins, and Kubiak were all minor-league forwards. Bardreau and Kubiak are remaining in the organization on AHL contracts with Bridgeport next season.

Salary Cap Outlook

The Islanders are tight to the cap and won’t be able to start the season with a full 23-player roster, per CapFriendly. Their projections currently put the Islanders at a cap hit of $83.99MM, which can be decreased below the $83.5MM Upper Limit if they operate with just two extra skaters.

Key Questions

Time To Break Up The Identity Line?: The Islanders don’t have many notable pending free agents after their spree of extensions earlier this summer. However, two core members of the Isles’ famed fourth line, Cal Clutterbuck and Matt Martin, are entering the last season of their contracts. As they’re both over 34 years old and their already meager offensive output is dwindling, the writing seems on the wall that one or both won’t be returning for 2024-25. With that said, does Lambert dare demote one of them to a 13th forward spot if others (like Gauthier, Kuhlman, or even a younger prospect) impress in camp? Their once-famed defensive impacts fell off a cliff last season – the unit played the most minutes together of any Islanders line but posted an abysmal 41.3% expected goals share, per MoneyPuck’s model.

Can Wahlstrom Break Out?: As referenced earlier, the Islanders are tight to the cap and don’t exactly have a lot of value contracts. Wahlstrom’s one-year extension is the only one with serious potential to give the Islanders 40+ points at a discount, and although it may cost them against the cap in 2024-25 with a more significant extension, they’d like to see him put things together and be a major top-nine contributor this season. Doing so would certainly help pad the loss of Parise, whose 21-goal void they haven’t really filled.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Matvei Michkov Expected To Be Loaned Within KHL

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KHL club SKA St. Petersburg is once again loaning Philadelphia Flyers top prospect Matvei Michkov to league rival HK Sochi, according to multiple reports out of Russia. St. Petersburg loaned Michkov to the basement-dwelling club near the beginning of last season as well.

The Flyers’ seventh-overall pick in 2023 has skated just 6:12 this season, only playing in one out of St. Petersburg’s four games to begin the 2023-24 KHL season. SKA has also effectively benched another young talent, Minnesota Wild prospect Marat Khusnutdinov, despite recording 41 points in 63 games for them last year.

The move returns Michkov to a club where he should immediately play a top-line role. As an 18-year-old, Michkov recorded 20 points in 27 games for Sochi in 2022-23, leading the team in points per game by far. Sochi has dropped three of their first four games, with their lone win coming from a massive 3-1 upset over 2023 Gagarin Cup finalist Ak Bars Kazan.

This is undoubtedly positive news for Michkov’s development (and the Flyers’ brass), returning him to a role where he can actually get playing time. He’s still under contract with SKA through the 2025-26 season, though, and this song and dance without having control over where Michkov plays is likely what some teams were looking to avoid by passing on him throughout the top five of the 2023 draft.

East Notes: Parise, Tatar, Romanov, Newhook

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One player who will not be at the New York Islanders training camp this September is veteran forward, Zach Parise. In April, Parise was adamant about returning to the Islanders for his 19th season in the NHL but appeared to become more uncertain once the 2022-23 season reached its conclusion.

General Manager of the Islanders, Lou Lamoriello believes that this isn’t the end for Parise, indicating that Zach is taking a bit more time to spend with his family to cap off the summer months. In the article, Lamoriello states, “I think he made the right decision for his family, and then we’ll just keep the door open for him. And as I said to him, we’ll keep the number (No. 11) open, too“.

Including his career resurgence with the Islanders following an unceremonious end to his career with the Minnesota Wild, Parise is a veteran of 1224 NHL games, scoring 429 goals and 450 assists in an 18-year career spent with the Islanders, Wild, and New Jersey Devils. Although still an unrestricted free agent, if Parise does choose to continue playing, it is a guarantee it will be in New York, following a similar career path as his late father, J.P. Parise.

Other news from the Eastern Conference:

  • Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet is reporting that unrestricted free agent forward, Tomas Tatar, has switched agents following a tumultuous time on the open market. In the same report, Friedman also indicated that Tatar is leaning towards signing with a team from the Eastern Conference. There has been some recent indication there was mutual interest between Tatar and the Pittsburgh Penguins, but it appears the Penguins will go in a different direction. Another team in the Eastern Conference that does have a bit of cap space and an opportunity in their middle-six for more scoring would be the Ottawa Senators.
  • Another report coming out of New York is that defenseman Alexander Romanov may not be ready for training camp following an offseason shoulder surgery shortly after the Islanders playoffs came to an end in late April. The report indicates that even if he is not ready for the start of training camp, Romanov is very close to returning at the very least. Becoming another solid shut-down defenseman on the Islanders’ blue line, Romanov would score two goals and 20 assists in his first full season last year, as well as adding an incredible amount of physicality to the back end.
  • The head coach of the Montreal Canadiens, Martin St. Louis, has a lot of confidence in one of the newest members of the organization, forward Alex Newhook. Speaking to Eric Engels of Sportsnet, St. Louis indicated that he did not watch much film on Newhook, believing he did not want to judge Newhook based on his last season playing for the Colorado Avalanche (X Link). One of the most important quotes from St. Louis, which should provide a lot of confidence for Newhook heading into a new environment is when he said, “So, to me, what I’m really happy about is I feel we’ve got a hockey player, I don’t think I’m getting a kid who plays hockey, and there’s a big difference“.

Islanders Expected To Sign Jackson Cates To PTO

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In an effort to create as much competition as possible in their forward group for training camp, Andrew Gross of Newsday is reporting that the New York Islanders have signed Jackson Cates to a professional tryout agreement. An undrafted free agent signing by the Philadelphia only three years ago, Cates became a Group Six UFA this offseason.

Up to this point, Cates has been unable to transfer his high level of play during his last season at the University of Minnesota-Duluth to the professional level. Capping off his last year of play in the NCAA during the 2020-21 season, Cates would play in 28 games for the Bulldogs, scoring 11 goals and 16 assists, helping his team reach the 2021 Frozen Four.

Over the next three seasons, Cates primarily played for the Flyers AHL affiliate, the Lehigh Valley Phantoms, suiting up in 102 regular season games, scoring 13 goals and 20 assists in two seasons. Without much of an opportunity at the NHL level, Cates has only played in 20 total games for Philadelphia, registering one goal and one assist, averaging just under nine and a half minutes of ice time per game.

As the Islanders are currently constructed, it will be incredibly unlikely to see Cates make the team out of training camp. Per CapFriendly, the team already has a projected 14 forwards ready to take on NHL minutes, without also factoring in the return of forward Oliver Wahlstrom, who will be cleared to play following a lower-body injury in April.

At the very least, if Cates does perform well in training camp for New York, there is a real possibility that the team could offer him a two-way contract and store him in the AHL for much of next season. However, with there being a handful of forwards ahead of him on the depth chart, it would seem unlikely that the team would offer him a call-up even in the case of injuries to their active roster.

Quinn Hughes Named Canucks Captain

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After trading away Bo Horvat to the New York Islanders before the trade deadline last season, the Vancouver Canucks had a decision to make regarding their captain moving forward. Today, that decision has been made, as the team announced defenseman Quinn Hughes would be the 15th captain in franchise history.

In the end, for head coach Rick Tocchet and the rest of his staff, the decision likely came down to Hughes, Elias Pettersson, and J.T. Miller. All three players have leadership capabilities and thorough experience in the league up to this point, and all three players would have been realistic choices to take over the captaincy. Hughes will become the first defenseman for the Canucks to wear the ’C’ since Doug Lidster during the 1990-91 NHL season.

The seventh overall selection for Vancouver in the 2018 NHL Draft, Hughes would join the Canucks at the end of the 2018-19 season, finishing off his college career at the University of Michigan. A year later, in his first full season, Hughes thoroughly showed what he could do at the NHL level, scoring eight goals and 45 assists in 68 games. In that first full year for Hughes, he would finish second in Calder Memorial Trophy voting and even garnered some Norris Trophy votes at season’s end.

Since then, it has been much of the same for Hughes, racking up a high amount of assists, and generating quite a bit of offense from the blue line for Vancouver. This past season, in what would be his most impressive year up to this point, Hughes would score seven goals and 69 assists in 78 games, becoming a point-per-game player as a defenseman.

A three-time All-Star already in his career, one of Hughes’s best improvements has been his defensive metrics. At the beginning of his career, there were some questions surrounding his defensive proficiency from the blue line, improving his takeaway numbers, and holding strong possession numbers for much of his career.

Now, at almost 24 years old, Hughes will be tasked with being the leader for the Canucks, both on and off the ice. As Vancouver continues to build and restructure their team into a playoff contender, it will be much of Hughes’s responsibility to lead this team into their next era.

Ottawa Promotes Ben Sexton To NHL Assistant Coach

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The Ottawa Senators announced that Ben Sexton will be joining the NHL staff as an assistant coach. Sexton has spent the last two seasons behind the bench of Ottawa’s AHL affiliate, the Belleville Senators, serving as an assistant to head coach Troy Mann.

The Belleville Senators have been just above .500 in Sexton’s time with the organization, setting a 71-59-14 record. This led them to a postseason appearance in 2022, where they lost to the Rochester Americans in the first round. The team did not repeat their postseason appearance this past year.

Getting called up to Ottawa from Belleville isn’t entirely unfamiliar to Sexton. The eight-year veteran of pro hockey played with Belleville for the 2017-18 season and received a late-March call-up to appear in what would be the only two NHL games of his career. Sexton would go on to play part of the 2018-19 season in Belleville as well – the final year of his playing career. Sexton finished his professional career with 200 AHL games, 44 goals, 90 points, and 234 penalty minutes.

In addition to Sexton’s promotion, Ottawa also announced that Sean Tierney has been named the team’s first Director of Analytics. Tierney takes steps into this role from his position as Director of Analytics and Pro Services with Sporlogiq, a hockey analytics company partnered with the NHL, SHL, AHL, and many other hockey leagues.

Christian Dvorak Not Yet Cleared To Play

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Montreal Canadiens general manager Kent Hughes has said that Christian Dvorak is not yet cleared to play and will need to meet with his surgeon one more time. Dvorak underwent surgery on his knee in March and was expected to be fully ready for the start of the 2023-24 season. Whether that will be the case or not seems to be up in the air now.

Dvorak joined eight other Habs on the injured reserve when he went down in March, speaking to the plague of injuries that Montreal experienced last season. In the 64 games he did appear in last year, Dvorak recorded 10 goals and 28 points, both career-lows when accounting for seasons where he played in 25 or more games.

This includes the 2021-22 season, his first year in Montreal, where he tallied 11 goals and 33 points in 56 games. That season was also dampened by injuries, with a lower-body injury holding him out for a month mid-season and an upper-body injury keeping him out for roughly two more in the spring.

Dvorak has two seasons left on his deal carrying a $4.45MM cap hit. These last two seasons also carry a modified no-trade clause that will allow Dvorak to submit an eight-team no-trade list should Montreal want to move him.

Dvorak, now 27, is in an interesting spot relative to the rebuilding Montreal Canadiens. He has yet to appear in a full 82 games and hasn’t played more than 64 since 2019-20. With a modified no-trade clause now in effect, how the Canadiens move forward with the cost-controlled Dvorak should be an interesting glimpse into what their plans for the next few years may be.

East Notes: Dahlin, Matheson, Levi

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TSN Hockey’s Chris Johnston said on the most recent ’Off the Post’ podcast that he fully expects Rasmus Dahlin to sign an eight-year contract extension. Johnston said that both sides have made positive strides towards finding the star’s next contract and that they may even have a deal in place before training camp. There’s no doubt that Dahlin’s next contract will likely come with a hefty cap hit – something that Johnston says Buffalo will likely try to offset by signing Owen Power to a cheap and short bridge contract when he’s an RFA next summer.

Dahlin is coming off a tremendous season, where he recorded 15 goals and 73 points in 78 games. His scoring ranked seventh among all defenders in points and points-per-games and marked career-highs in goals, assists, and points. Dahlin has confidently taken control of the Sabres top defender role and is still only 23. A long-term extension will likely take him through his prime and learning what that cap hit will look like is something the Sabres are surely eager to find out.

More from the East:

Five Key Stories: 9/4/23 – 9/10/23

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The first full week of September is in the books and with training camps fast approaching, there was some news of note around the hockey world which is recapped in our top stories.

More Tryouts: The month of September can be colloquially thought of as PTO season as unsigned players look to catch on before camps start.  Last week, several veterans inked tryout deals and several more did so over the past seven days.  Among those with recent NHL experience, Danton Heinen will look to have a second go-round with Boston while Ryan Dzingel will try to do the same with Arizona. Noah Gregor is hoping to catch on with Toronto, Saku Maenalanen is the latest to join Colorado’s camp, while Colin White will be heading to a very crowded forward battle in Pittsburgh.  Quite a few more tryouts are expected to be coming over the next week or two.

Late Moves For Tampa Bay: The Lightning thought they had filled a spot on their fourth line early in free agency when they signed winger Josh Archibald to a two-year deal.  However, after he informed the team that he no longer intends to play this season, Tampa Bay elected to terminate his contract.  They quickly found a replacement though, inking Tyler Motte to a one-year deal worth the same $800K that they were set to pay Archibald.  It could be argued that the moves work out to a net upgrade for the Lightning with Motte being a bit younger and having a slightly better track record of production.

Eight For Sanderson: The Senators haven’t shied away from extending their core players early.  They’ve elected to do so once more, signing defenseman Jake Sanderson to an eight-year, $64.4MM extension that will begin in the 2024-25 season.  The deal buys out Sanderson’s five remaining RFA years plus three seasons of UFA eligibility.  The 21-year-old had a strong rookie year last season, collecting 32 points in 77 games while logging nearly 22 minutes a night.  This deal will make Sanderson, the fifth-overall pick in 2020, Ottawa’s highest-paid defenseman as it checks in just ahead of Thomas Chabot.  Ottawa’s young core consisting of Sanderson, Chabot, Tim Stutzle, Brady Tkachuk, and Josh Norris, are all signed through at least the 2027-28 campaign.

Off-Ice Moves: After handing out extensions to Arizona’s coaching staff, it was GM Bill Armstrong’s turn to receive one as well as he inked an agreement that will keep him in charge of the Coyotes through the 2028-29 season.  Armstrong has been at the helm for four seasons now, embarking on a full-scale rebuild.  This deal means he’ll be the one to take them out of it down the road.  Meanwhile, Bruce Boudreau has a new job but not with an NHL team.  Instead, he has joined Niagara of the OHL as a Senior Advisor.  Boudreau ranks 21st all-time in NHL games coached and wins and it remains to be seen if he’ll one day get a chance to add to those numbers.  Lastly, after not being with a team last season, Doug Wilson is back in an NHL front office as he was hired by Pittsburgh as a Senior Advisor.  He spent over 25 years on San Jose’s management team and will now serve as a member of Kyle Dubas’ new-look front office.

Second Bridge For Frost: With Philadelphia’s cap situation, the only way they could afford to re-sign Morgan Frost was with another short-term bridge contract.  The two sides have now agreed on one as he signed a two-year, $4.2MM deal.  The 24-year-old had a career year last season, notching 19 goals and 27 assists in 81 games, providing quite a nice return on a one-year, $800K deal.  The move gives the Flyers a chance to evaluate if he’s indeed a long-term piece of the puzzle.  If he is, they’ll owe him a $2.4MM qualifying offer in 2025.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Nashville Predators

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2023-24 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Nashville Predators

Current Cap Hit: $75,593,365 (under the $83.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Luke Evangelista (two years, $797.5K)
F Juuso Parssinen (one year, $850.8K)
F Philip Tomasino (one year, $863K)

Potential Bonuses
Evangelista: $82.5K
Parssinen: $57.5K
Tomasino: $212.5K
Total: $352.5K

After being a full-time regular in his rookie year, Tomasino spent half of last season in the minors before being brought up in February where he was quite productive with 18 points in 31 games.  If he can push through and reach 50 points, it’s possible that he’s a candidate to bypass a bridge contract but at this point, a two-year agreement just past the $2MM mark seems like a possible landing spot for him.  His bonus is an ‘A’ one and as long as he’s up for the full season and stays healthy, he should be able to reach it.

Parssinen also started in the minors last season although he was recalled to stay much earlier back in November.  The 45 games he played in 2022-23 were his first at the NHL level which, coupled with however many he plays this year, probably won’t be enough for a long-term agreement.  Evangelista was up and down for most of last season but was quite productive in a limited role in Nashville with 15 points in just 24 games which should earn him a full-time look this year.  How he fares will go a long way toward determining if he’s a candidate for a long-term second deal or not.  Both he and Parssinen’s bonuses are games played-based.

Signed Through 2023-24, Non-Entry-Level

D Tyson Barrie ($4.5MM, UFA)
D Alexandre Carrier ($2.5MM, UFA)
D Dante Fabbro ($2.5MM, RFA)
F Denis Gurianov ($850K, UFA)
F Mark Jankowski ($775K, UFA)
G Kevin Lankinen ($2MM, UFA)
F Michael McCarron ($775K, UFA)
F Thomas Novak ($800K, UFA)
F Kiefer Sherwood ($775K, UFA)
F Cole Smith ($775K, UFA)
F Yakov Trenin ($1.7MM, UFA)

Trenin wasn’t quite able to get back to the 17-goal mark following a breakout 2021-22 campaign but he was able to reach 24 points again for the second straight year.  However, as a physical winger, he’s still well-positioned to land a raise past the $2MM AAV should he make it to the open market next summer.  Gurianov comes over after being non-tendered by Montreal following a rough year that saw him score just seven goals in 66 games.  If he wants to get some stability and security on a contract, he’ll need to get back to pushing toward the 20-goal mark, not the 20-point plateau.

Novak is one of the more intriguing pending UFAs in this group.  This time a year ago, he was a fringe NHL player and he even spent 25 games in the minors a year ago.  However, he was extremely productive with Nashville, recording 17 goals and 26 assists in just 51 games.  Considering his past and the fact he was up and down through the first half of last year, Novak opted to take a guaranteed one-way offer, a move that likely left money on the table considering how he finished the year.  Even if he winds up with 43 points over a full season instead of 60% of one, he’s well-positioned to earn a sizable raise when he puts pen to paper on his next deal.  There’s a good chance the starting salary on it will beat his career earnings.

Smith was a full-time NHLer for the first time last season after a productive campaign with AHL Milwaukee the year before.  With nearly 200 hits in 69 games, he’s the type of energetic forward that teams often like on the fourth line.  If he can lock down a regular role again this year, he could push for a seven-figure deal next summer.  Jankowski, Sherwood, and McCarron will all be in the mix in training camp but even if they can secure a regular role, their respective histories suggest that they’re likely to continue to hover around the minimum salary moving forward.

Barrie had one of the best statistical seasons of his career last year with 55 points in 85 (yes, 85) games between Edmonton and Nashville.  However, his defensive struggles have hampered him in his previous times through free agency and it seems likely that will happen again.  A deal around this one is certainly possible but getting much more will be difficult.  After a breakout year in 2021-22, Carrier struggled last season both in terms of performance and injury-wise.  He was a top-four piece in 2021-22 but more of a third-pairing one last year.  If he’s the former in 2023-24, he’ll be in line for at least a small raise.  If he’s the latter, he should expect a drop closer to the $1MM range.  Fabbro’s future in Nashville has been subject to speculation in recent years as he has stagnated from a development perspective.  His ATOI went to a four-year low last season while his offensive production was cut in half.  This deal feels like it could be a last-chance opportunity and if he doesn’t rebound under new head coach Andrew Brunette, he’s quite likely going to be in trade speculation once again.

Lankinen didn’t see a lot of action last season, making just 18 starts.  However, his save percentage of .916 was well above the league average which earned him a small raise to stick around.  Lankinen still only has 88 career NHL appearances under his belt which limits his earnings upside but another season like 2022-23 could put him in a spot where another small raise should be achievable.

Signed Through 2024-25

F Cody Glass ($2.5MM, RFA)
F Gustav Nyquist ($3.185MM, UFA)
G Juuse Saros ($5MM, UFA)

Last season saw Nyquist deal with a shoulder injury that ended his regular season early while he wasn’t able to produce at the level he was accustomed to before then.  He did put forth a strong playoff showing with Minnesota but the market wasn’t kind to many wingers this summer.  This price point is certainly reasonable for a middle-six winger and if he rebounds offensively, it will become a team-friendly deal.  After struggling the previous few seasons, Glass made some big strides last season, setting career highs across the board while establishing himself as an every-game regular.  He’s not at the level his original draft slot might suggest but now he looks like at least a capable part of Nashville’s secondary core moving forward.  This deal amounts to a second bridge contract, giving both sides more time to assess things; he’ll have one year of arbitration eligibility remaining in 2025.

It wasn’t that long ago that there were questions about Saros’ ability to hold up as a starter.  It’s safe to say those have long been dealt with as he was once again one of the top goalies league-wide last season while playing the most minutes for the second year in a row.  Being undersized will scare some teams off if he makes it to the open market in 2025 but if he has two more years like this before getting there, Saros should find himself closer to the upper end of the salary scale for netminders.  Probably not right at the top but an extra couple million per season (if not a bit more) should be achievable.  That would put him in the top handful of goaltenders across the league which, based on his recent play, is exactly where he should be.

Signed Through 2025-26

D Jeremy Lauzon ($2MM, UFA)
D Ryan McDonagh ($6.75MM, UFA)
D Luke Schenn ($2.75MM, UFA)
F Colton Sissons ($2.875MM, UFA)

Sissons’ deal has always been a strange one as the Preds inked him to a seven-year deal back in 2019 hoping his offense would come around.  It didn’t for a while but has been a bit better the last couple of seasons, hovering around the 30-point mark.  That, coupled with his two-way game, has given Nashville a decent return the last couple of years.

McDonagh came over as a salary dump from Tampa Bay but is still capable of playing top-four minutes for now.  Unfortunately for the Predators, his offensive output has fallen off the last few years which makes this a negative-value contract.  They’re able to absorb it without too much issue right now, however.  Schenn had a good showing with Vancouver and Toronto last season, making him one of the more sought-after blueliners this summer.  He’s best used on the third pairing which makes this an overpay relative to his role but with their current cap space, they can afford it.  Lauzon’s deal was an odd one as his play to that point wasn’t worth the cap hit.  Poile was hoping the 26-year-old had another gear to get to.  If he can over the next few years, this will hold up nicely but if he remains a third-pairing depth option, it’s another overpayment.

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