Stanley Cup Odds
Las Vegas odds-maker Bovada released their odds (listed below) for the 2016-17 NHL season today, as well as the odds for each conference and division. Among the surprises was the inclusion of a co-leader alongside the reigning champion Penguins, as the Blackhawks are odds-on favorites win it all out of the West. The (relatively) high ranking of the Edmonton Oilers is also a shock, as the perennial bottom-dwellers of the last decade were given the same odds as a 2015-16 playoff team team, the Philadelphia Flyers. A mash up of Eastern Conference contenders at the 25/1 mark will also confuse many, as the Metropolitan’s Islanders and Rangers performed significantly better than the Atlantic’s Bruins, Red Wings, and Canadiens last year.
Other than the Blackhawks, who have to battle through a tough division simply to make it to the Western Conference Final, and the Oilers, who have yet to prove they can even remain in the playoff conversation past the holidays, the worst bet may be the Dallas Stars. Although they are coming off a strong 2015-16 campaign, the Stars have severe goal-tending problems, a depleted defensive unit, and a pair of banged-up superstars leading their offense. Dallas seems primed for a regression in 2016-17, and their #5 ranking in the odds is a little too high to be a smart take.
The best bet available? Any of the 16/1 teams seem like a smart choice. The Florida Panthers especially have re-tooled this off-season and likely have only Tampa Bay standing between them and an easy division title. The Los Angeles Kings have won two of the last five Stanley Cups and shouldn’t be counted out, and if they do fail to make it out of the Pacific Division, the Anaheim Ducks seem likely to be the ones knocking them out. The Nashville Predators are a dark horse candidate seemingly every season, and after bringing in P.K. Subban, who projects to be a perfect fit in their system, this could finally be the year that the Preds put it all together. The long shot: how about the Carolina Hurricanes, who missed the playoffs in 2015-16 by a handful of points and have several young players just waiting to break out. With the worst odds of any team, that’s a high-yield bet worth making.
Pittsburgh Penguins 9/1
Chicago Blackhawks 9/1
Tampa Bay Lighting 10/1
Washington Capitals 10/1
Dallas Stars 12/1
St. Louis Blues 14/1
San Jose Sharks 14/1
Anaheim Ducks 16/1
Florida Panthers 16/1
Los Angeles Kings 16/1
Nashville Predators 16/1
Boston Bruins 25/1
Detroit Red Wings 25/1
Minnesota Wild 25/1
Montreal Canadiens 25/1
New York Islanders 25/1
New York Rangers 25/1
Edmonton Oilers 33/1
Philadelphia Flyers 33/1
Buffalo Sabres 50/1
Calgary Flames 50/1
Colorado Avalanche 50/1
New Jersey Devils 50/1
Ottawa Senators 50/1
Toronto Maple Leafs 50/1
Winnipeg Jets 50/1
Arizona Coyotes 66/1
Carolina Hurricanes 66/1
Columbus Blue Jackets 66/1
Vancouver Canucks 66/1
Analyzing Chances Of Blues Tryouts To Make Team
Last year, both Scottie Upshall and Scott Gomez earned jobs with St. Louis after coming to camp on a tryout basis. While Gomez didn’t make it through the year with the club, Upshall performed well enough to earn a second one-year deal with the Blues. St. Louis appears to be going back to that well again by inviting six players to camp on PTO agreements. Those in search of a job with the Blues are Yan Stastny, Chris Porter, T.J Galiardi, Eric Nystrom, Scooter Vaughan and Mike Weber.
Writing for the St. Louis Post Dispatch, Jeremy Rutherford provides a closer look at each of the six players invited to camp. Included in the post are comments from Blues head coach Ken Hitchcock. Those comments provide unique insight into the odds faced by each of the players attempting to make the 2016-17 Blues.
The Blues lost team captain David Backes and veteran power forward Troy Brouwer as free agents this summer. But the team acted quickly by signing David Perron to fill a hole on the wing. St. Louis also expects Vladimir Sobotka to return this season from the KHL and play a regular role with the Blues. That would seem to limit the opportunities for a forward to earn a job.
The team’s blue line is also stocked with enough quality players to fill all six regular slots, as the team’s depth chart on Roster Resource shows. Robert Bortuzzo is listed currently as the team’s seventh option on defense and he’s a decent fit for that role. Additionally, the team has their 2012 first-round pick, Jordan Schmaltz, waiting in the wings. The North Dakota product made his pro debut in 2015-16 with Chicago of the AHL and tallied 36 points in 71 games for the Wolves.
Grossmann Joins Flames On PTO
The Calgary Flames have added D Nicklas Grossmann to its training camp roster, agreeing to a PTO the 10-year vet per this tweet from Dean Molberg of The Fan 960. Grossman appeared in 58 games in 2015-16 with the Arizona Coyotes, scoring three goals and seven points and posting a -3 plus-minus rating. Drafted by Dallas in the second-round of the 2004 entry draft, Grossman has also spent time with the Stars and Philadelphia Flyers during his NHL career.
Grossman joins a relatively crowded Flames blue line corps led by team captain Mark Giordano and rising young star Dougie Hamilton. Veterans T.J. Brodie, Dennis Wideman and Deryk Engelland also figure to hold down regular roles. Young Jyrki Jokipakka, acquired at the trade deadline in the Kris Russell deal, will compete with Ladislav Smid and presumably Grossman for the sixth spot.
There has been talk that Calgary could be interested in a reunion with Russell, who has lingered on the free agent market all summer. It’s unclear if adding Grossman in any way changes that line of thinking though Russell, despite his struggles landing a lucrative free agent deal, is still a reasonably competent NHL blue liner whereas Grossman is likely more of a depth option at this point.
Feel free to check out our Invite Tracker for updates on all of the recent PTO signings.
Snapshots: Zetterberg, Miller, Brown
With the departure of Pavel Datsyuk to the KHL, Detroit Red Wings captain Henrik Zetterberg assumed the mantle as the team’s longest tenured player. Entering his 14th NHL campaign and soon to turn 36-years-old, the skilled Swedish forward has certainly seen better days as evidenced by his 16-point drop in scoring from 2014-15 to this past season. That being said, Zetterberg is still someone the Wings will lean on if the team wishes to stretch its streak of qualifying for the postseason to 26 years.
Zetterberg acknowledges a drop-off in his play during the second half of each of the previous two seasons and suggests he is looking at different ways to stay fresh throughout the coming season, according to Helene St. James of the Detroit Free Press.
“That’s what’s gotten me the last two years, I ran out of gas. You can’t play hockey in this level when you run out of gas. So that’s one thing we’re going to play around with.”
Zetterberg tallied 27 points in the season’s first 34 games through December but struggled down the stretch recording just nine points over the final 24 contests. He also chipped in just a single point, a goal in game three, during Detroit’s five-game, first-round playoff loss to Tampa Bay. Zetterberg stated he is at least willing to listen if head coach Jeff Blashill suggests decreased ice time or even taking a game off here and there.
“As a player, as soon as you hear ‘less minutes,’ you’re not happy. I don’t think I will go and tell Coach I need less minutes. But if he decides that I need to play less or get some rest dates, I’m open to listen to that.”
“We want to see the younger guys take steps and kind of take minutes from the older guys. But I won’t give it away, they have to earn it. That’s part of the transition. I went through it when I came in and started to play more. But you have to earn it.”
Zetterberg has five seasons remaining on a long-term deal that took effect in 2009-10. He carries a cap hit just in excess of $6MM annually but the final three seasons of his contract come with actual salaries of $3.35MM, $1MM and $1MM respectively. It will be interesting to see if Zetterberg is both willing and able to finish out the pact with the Red Wings.
Elsewhere around the league:
- After trading away talented young blue liner Dougie Hamilton and steady veteran defender Johnny Boychuk in successive offseasons, the Boston Bruins are still searching for a reliable top-four defenseman, as Joe Haggerty opines. An aging Zdeno Chara is still the club’s top defenseman with Torey Krug likely not far behind but beyond those two, pickings are slim. Haggerty admits the team has the cap space and veteran assets to make a trade if they so choose, though they may already have the top-four option they seek on the roster. While also listing prospect Brandon Carlo and youngster Joe Morrow as possibilities, Haggerty believes Colin Miller might be the Bruins “X-factor” on the blue line. As Haggerty notes, Miller scored 19 goals and 52 points in 70 AHL games with the Manchester Monarchs in 2014-15, suggesting he has the skill to put up points in the big leagues. Miller came to Boston from Los Angeles in the Milan Lucic trade during the 2015 offseason and may be coming into his own as an NHL player after producing 16 points in just 42 games as a rookie. With few quality options available either on the trade market or in free agency, it might be wise for Boston to give Miller a chance before looking outside the organization for a top-four blue liner.
- According to Chris Johnston of Sportsnet (via tweet), Mike Brown is the latest veteran player to land a PTO with the tough guy winger signing on in Columbus. Brown, 31, spent time with both San Jose and Montreal last season, scoring two goals and three assists in 58 games with 90 PIMs. For his career, Brown has potted 19 goals and recorded 778 minutes of penalties in 407 NHL games. He has suited up for Vancouver, Anaheim, Toronto and Edmonton in addition to the Sharks and Habs in his nine NHL seasons. The Blue Jackets bought out the contract of veteran enforcer Jared Boll earlier this summer and could see Brown as a possible replacement depending on his play during training camp.
Metro Notes: Weise, Giroux, Elias
Dale Weise was in the midst of a career season with 14 goals and 26 points in 56 games with Montreal until a trade deadline deal shipped the rugged winger to Chicago along with Tomas Fleischmann for Phillip Danault and a 2018 second-round pick. Ordinarily, going from a non-playoff squad to a serious Stanley Cup contender is usually a desirable situation for any player. But Weise doesn’t necessarily feel that way about his move to Chicago. He saw his ice time cut by nearly 4 1/2 minutes per contest after the trade and netted just a single point, an assist, in 15 games for the Hawks.
Weise would use the word “disaster,” to describe his move to Chicago in a piece appearing on Philly.com, written by Sam Carchidi.
“I had 14 goals by mid-February. Going to Chicago was a disaster because I played like five minutes a night. [Actually it was just under 10 minutes, which is still a paltry average.] It’s pretty tough to do anything when you play so little. It was a new experience for me.”
After signing a four-year deal worth $9.4MM with the Philadelphia Flyers in the offseason, Weise credited GM Ron Hextall with selling him on the opportunity to play in the City of Brotherly Love.
“I’m really excited. I really like what Hexy had to say and what he thought about my game. He was very honest, and I liked that we’re on the same page. I think I can play on any line and play in any role.”
Whether or not Wiese can be a consistent offensive producer for the Flyers remains to be seen – though it should be noted he did tally 29 points in 2014-15 offering some hope for solid future production. Regardless, the gritty winger will add size, toughness and versatility to the Flyers lineup and it’s pretty clear Weise feels as if he is in a better situation now than he was in Chicago.
Elsewhere around the NHL’s Metro Division:
- Sticking with Philadelphia, Flyers fans were undoubtedly worried about the health of #1 center Claude Giroux after he missed a Team Canada practice Monday and was announced as a scratch for the team’s final exhibition match on Wednesday. Giroux absorbed a big hit from Team USA’s Joe Pavelski in Friday night’s tilt and appeared shaken up afterwards. However, quelling fears of a potentially lengthy absence, Hextall said today that his star center was fine and equated the injury to that of a normal bump or bruise a player would experience during the season, according to Tim Panaccio of CSN Philadelphia.
“There’s a difference between, well, he’s not injured. Throughout the year, you get a bump or bruise and that’s the case there.”
- Even though veteran forward Patrik Elias is technically a UFA, it’s been widely assumed he would retire rather than play for anyone other than the Devils. Currently, there has been no indication from New Jersey on whether they will offer the franchise’s all-time leading scorer a contract for 2016-17. In his Fire and Ice blog, Andrew Gross also indicated that there is no time table to make such a decision, as Elias is still rehabbing from offseason knee surgery and won’t be ready for the start of training camp. Elias has spent his entire 20-year NHL career with the Devils, winning three Stanley Cups along the way. He’s also the franchise’s all-time leader in many offensive categories including: goals (408), assists (617) and power play goals (113). Even though the Devils have already added LW Taylor Hall via trade and are expected to give young forward Pavel Zacha a chance to earn regular time on the port side, it seems likely they would still welcome Elias back to the fold if the longtime Devil is healthy and wants to return.
2016-17 Season Preview: Chicago Blackhawks
As the NHL season is just weeks away, PHR begins to look at each team in-depth. Today, we focus on the Chicago Blackhawks.
Last season: 47-26-9 (103 points), 3rd place in the Central. Lost in the first round to St. Louis, 4-3.
Cap Space Remaining: $2.49MM via CapFriendly
Key Newcomers: Brian Campbell (D) – free agent signing (Florida), Michal Kempny (D) – free agent signing (KHL); Jordin Tootoo (F) – free agent signing (New Jersey).
Key Departures: Bryan Bickell (LW) – traded to Carolina; David Rundblad (D) – contract termination; Andrew Shaw (RW) – traded to Montreal; Teuvo Teravainen (LW) – traded to Carolina.
Player to Watch: Nick Schmaltz – Head coach Joel Quenneville has been known to keep his young players on a short leash and it will be interesting to see how much freedom Q will give the dynamic young forward. Schmaltz has been mentioned in the same breath as former Blackhawk Brandon Saad, who was a huge piece of the team that won the Stanley Cup in 2013 and 2015. Schmaltz turned heads during the World Juniors and has an opportunity to log significant ice time as the Hawks depth isn’t what it once was.
Key Storyline: After an early exit last Spring, do the Hawks have it in them to make another run at the Cup? They had a couple months of extra rest, but still have some holes up front. Marcus Kruger is already fighting an injury and Marian Hossa has slowed a bit from the form that made him a key part of the Hawks’ three Cups. The real question is can the Hawks find talent from the youngsters they’re now counting on, specifically Schmaltz, Tyler Motte, and Vinnie Hinostroza. Corey Crawford has shown he is the man between the pipes and bringing Campbell back will shore up a defensive corps that suffered with consistency last season. Patrick Kane and Artemi Panarin should continue to pace the team offensively while Jonathan Toews will be his usual steady self. For the Blackhawks, health and depth will ultimately determine their season and postseason success. Duncan Keith‘s knee should hold up and ease some fan concern that something more serious is afoot following last year’s surgery.
General manager Stan Bowman may need to tinker a bit more at the trade deadline, but the assets to deal are dwindling. Then again, should Chicago’s “kids” step in, they could find themselves adding another Cup to its already impressive haul.
New Goalie Equipment Rules For 2016-17 Season
The NHL will have at least one new goaltending equipment restriction this season: slimmer hockey pants. 2016-17 was supposed to usher in a new era of streamlined goaltending equipment, but manufacturer delays pushed those changes back until further notice. NHL Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly stated on SiriusXM Radio, however, that the new pants regulation may be implemented as early as Opening Night.
For years smaller or slimmer goalies got away with wearing bigger pants because the NHL set a maximum size that accommodated its biggest goalies. That meant that smaller goalies could wear bigger pants than necessary to cover more space. It was not uncommon for the upper part of the pant to extend half a foot above normal height, or the lower portion to sag and block off part of the five hole. Because today’s goaltending butterfly style depends on covering as much of the net as possible, goalies looking for any edge turned to oversized equipment.
Now, the pants are streamlined to be smaller and tighter. The point is to maximize protection as efficiently as possible without adding unnecessary net-hiding bulk. The NHL walks a fine line between protecting goalies in a league where technology allows players to shoot harder than ever, and increasing scoring without changing the game. The league does not want to put its goalies in any danger, but at the same time wants to reduce any unnecessary equipment that gives goalies a slight edge.
This may only be the first of a few changes this season. Daly stated that the process is ongoing, and the NHL hopes to implement further changes as soon as possible. Those changes could include slimmer chest protectors and smaller pads. Whether these new changes find their way into the league will depend on how cooperative the goalies and manufacturers are with the league.
Potential 2016-17 Impact Rookies: Puljujarvi, Kempe, Goldobin, Tkachuk
It’s rare for players to debut in the NHL and make a significant impact for their teams in the same year they are drafted. In 2015-16, just three players selected in the prior June’s draft – Connor McDavid, Jack Eichel and Noah Hanifin – appeared in more than 18 NHL contests as rookies. However, we could see as many as five 2016 draftees all earn regular shifts with their clubs during the 2016-17 season, two of whom appear in this post.
Jesse Puljujarvi (Edmonton) – Expected to go in the top-three of the draft, Puljujarvi surprisingly dropped to #4 after Columbus elected to take C Pierre-Luc Dubois at #3 instead of the Finnish winger. Edmonton happily grabbed Puljujarvi with their choice and this stroke of good fortune may have played a role in the June 29th trade of Taylor Hall to New Jersey for Adam Larsson. Having Puljujarvi in the fold provided Oilers GM Peter Chiarelli the knowledge he had enough depth on the wings to cash in a player of Hall’s caliber to address their weakness on the blue line.
Puljujarvi combines NHL size at 6-foot-3 and 203 pounds with excellent skating ability. He starred for the Finns helping his home country win the gold medal in the World Junior Championships. He also captured the tourney’s MVP award and finished tops among all participants in both assists (12) and points (17).
The Oilers already have one of the top young superstars in the game in MacDavid and saw 2014 first-round pick Leon Draisaitl bust out with a 51-point campaign in 2016-17. Joining that dangerous duo up front is former top overall selection Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. Edmonton boasts plenty of talented high-end forwards which virtually assures Puljujarvi will have a chance to skate with some good players. Don’t be surprised if he ends up as a Calder Trophy finalist and the leading scorer among all 2016 draftees.
Adrian Kempe (Los Angeles) – After losing forwards Milan Lucic and Kris Versteeg to free agency and with Dustin Brown‘s offense regressing to a level where he has no business in the top-nine, the Kings could turn to Kempe to provide additional scoring. Kempe, the team’s first-round choice in 2014, already has 55 games of pro experience in North America after suiting up this past season for the Kings AHL affiliate, the Ontario Reign. The Swedish winger tallied 11 goals and recorded 28 points during the regular season and another four goals and five points in 13 postseason contests.
Since Kempe doesn’t turn 20 until later this month and given he didn’t exactly dominate at the AHL level, it wouldn’t be a bad idea if the Kings sent him back to Ontario to start the 2016-17 campaign and get some more seasoning. But with Kyle Clifford (nine points in 56 games) and Brown (28 points in 82 games) currently expected to hold top-nine spots, according to Roster Resource, Los Angeles might decide they need to inject more offense into the lineup and Kempe could be the source of that offense.
Nikolay Goldobin (San Jose) – The Sharks addressed any need they may have had for a scoring line LW by signing Mikkel Boedker as a free agent this summer. With Tomas Hertl and Patrick Marleau also listed as LW’s on the team’s depth chart, it’s likely the highly skilled Goldobin begins the season with the San Jose Barracudas of the AHL to gain more experience. But in the event of injury, Goldobin could be among the team’s first choices for a promotion to the big club.
Goldobin is said to have an excellent shot and release and is a creative offensive player. He can use some work on his defensive game, as do many young players, which is another reason he might find himself in the AHL to start the 2016-17 campaign. But with Marleau entering the final year of his contract, Goldobin is in line to land a job with the Sharks soon enough; perhaps as early as this year.
Matthew Tkachuk (Calgary) – The Flames already possess several skilled young players, but as mentioned in an earlier installment of this series, if they do have an opening it would be for a scoring line LW with size. Hunter Shinkaruk might get the first crack to fill that role though he doesn’t possess the size the Flames would seem to need. If Shinkaruk isn’t ready for regular NHL action, Tkachuk could be an option for Calgary up front.
Tkachuk, the son of former NHL power forward Keith Tkachuk, was drafted by the Flames with the sixth overall selection of the 2016 draft following an impressive 107-point season with the London Knights of the OHL. While his dad was noted for playing a physical game (2,219 PIM in 1,201 NHL games), as well as being a terrific goal scorer, Matthew is more of a complete, two-way player who is also a good skater with high-end offensive instincts. He helped Team USA to a bronze medal at the 2016 WJC U20 tournament, tallying 11 points in seven contests.
Tkachuk might be better off returning to junior to gain more experience. He will certainly have to prove to the Flames that he is truly ready to play at the NHL level but he has the talent and the skill to provide some offense if he earns a role in Calgary.
Examining The Rangers’ Forward Group
The New York Rangers were one of the deeper forward groups in the NHL headed into this summer. They had three lines of solid NHL scoring depth, with players like J.T. Miller and Kevin Hayes still yet to hit their peaks. It was going to be another season of mixing and matching, with Rick Nash starting to hit his decline phase and being dropped down the lineup on certain nights.
Then they went out and signed Michael Grabner, Nathan Gerbe and Josh Jooris, players everyone expected to plug into their bottom six and fight for minutes in the dirty areas of the ice, help kill penalties and provide some energy when the skilled players needed it. That was expected, and they were praised for the cheap talent they’d added.
They dealt one of their veteran centers for a younger, more explosive version, moving Derick Brassard for Mika Zibanejad, adding to their dynamic second line beside Jesper Fast. While Brassard gave consistency and leadership, Zibanejad showed a higher ceiling and skill level. They looked like they were done, with 12 or 13 forwards locked into NHL spots, with a ton of experience.
And then came Jimmy Vesey. And Brandon Pirri. Somehow, the Rangers won out over the rest of the league (or so it would seem) for the services of the biggest story of the offseason. Vesey was signed out of Harvard to plug into a lineup that was already four lines deep, and Pirri was signed for 1.1MM to keep scoring goals despite the lack of faith from the league. Sure, pushing out Gerbe and Tanner Glass doesn’t sound that bad, but there usually just aren’t enough minutes to go around for all these skilled players. That’s where the Rangers have done so well.
In Vesey especially, the Rangers have a player that they can protect with this roster, not giving him tough matchups or assignments in his rookie season, while still surrounding him with skill. Hayes, Vesey and Miller could form a deadly third line, capable of playing in the opposing team’s end for most shifts. While it looks tough for two of Glass, Gerbe and Jooris to make the top-12 at this point, they provide excellent NHL depth for a squad that is trying to win with an aging goaltender and declining defense. At the deadline, they could be huge players as their youngsters step up, and expect Nash rumors to persist throughout the year.
Snapshots: Dubois, Crosby, Team NA
After being selected as the surprise third overall pick in the latest NHL Entry Draft, Pierre-Luc Dubois is trying to prove to everyone that he derserved to be picked above Jesse Puljujarvi and Matthew Tkachuk. In a piece by James O’Brien at NBCSports, Dubois is clear what his goal is this fall.
(The Blue Jackets) drafted me third in front of the guy everybody thought they were going to draft, but I think they made the right decision. I want to prove that to everybody.
For at least the first few years of his career, he’ll be compared to Puljujarvi constantly which is probably more unfair than anything. The Finnish winger has already been playing against men for parts of two seasons, while Dubois will head back for his final year of junior hockey (that is if he doesn’t surprise everyone to make the Blue Jackets out of camp). It may take him a while, but as GM Jarmo Kekalainen comments when talking about what will set Dubois apart, “I keep coming back to his character and hockey sense.”
- Team Canada has often found trouble pairing players with Sidney Crosby at international competitions, with many high level talents moving on and off of his wing throughout past tournaments. That said, head coach Mike Babcock may have found a group that he’ll stick with this time. As TSN’s Pierre LeBrun reports, Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron look like the set wingers for the Team Canada captain. It’s a plan Babcock had way back in May, when he was first envisioning what his lineup might look like. The interesting part, is that Marchand is one of Team Canada’s only natural wingers, and Bergeron is highly regarded for his all-around ability and hockey IQ. Perhaps it’s centers that don’t find a home on Crosby’s wing, similar to the way Pittsburgh has never been able to consistently pair Crosby with Evgeni Malkin for any length of time.
- The top two picks of the 2015 NHL draft will be linked once again, as Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel will skate on a line in their second pre-tournament game against Europe tonight. The third musketeer will be Johnny Gaudreau, still unsigned as he’s entered his negotiation freeze during the tournament. With three of the strongest skaters in the NHL on the ice at once, team North America will surely be interesting to watch, the plan all along of the NHL and commissioner Gary Bettman when he introduced the slightly off-the-board format.