Our latest mailbag before the trade deadline takes a look at some of the top rental players still available, what a trio of Atlantic Division teams will be looking to do, a discussion on the emphasis on long-term contracts and whether that trend may soon be changing, and much more. These are the non-Metropolitan Division questions from our last call for mailbag questions two weeks ago. For the Metro mailbag, click here.
ThePriceWasRight: Rumors are if he makes it, Calgary and Winnipeg interested in Stone. If either makes this trade are they the cream of the Western crop or does Calgary still have to address its goaltending?
I think Winnipeg is the top team in the West right now so adding Mark Stone would make them the top gun by that much more. They have several strong wingers and adding a top liner like Stone would make an already potent offense that much stronger.
As for Calgary, getting Stone probably wouldn’t be enough to unseat Winnipeg as their goaltending is still somewhat shaky. Unfortunately for them, that’s going to be tough to address. I don’t think Columbus will move Sergei Bobrovsky and while Jimmy Howard would help, he’s not a high-end starter. No one they’re going to get will be either which makes it hard to call them the top contender.
That said, I don’t think it should stop them from pursuing Stone. Their attack is very top-heavy and adding Stone would give them a second line that’s capable of lighting the lamp with a lot more regularity. If you can’t win the traditional way with good goaltending, loading up offensively and trying to win some high-scoring games isn’t a bad way to go.
@Hockeyprospect5: Who should the Flames try to acquire?
Though they won’t be able to land a top-notch starting goaltender, I still think they should look at adding some depth. I like Keith Kinkaid for them. I know he isn’t having a great year but he showed last season that he’s capable of getting hot and going on a big run. That’s all they really need for the time being, someone that can either push one of David Rittich or Mike Smith or provide a short-term boost if he gets on a roll at the right time.
I can see them looking for winger depth as well. I’d be a little surprised if Stone went there but I could see someone like Gustav Nyquist being of interest to them. He may not be able to carry a line like Stone but he’s a good two-way player and could still log a lot of minutes for them. (He’ll also cost a lot less than Stone will.) They’ve been linked to Mats Zuccarello as of late as well and he’d be a nice addition for their second line.
pitmanrich: Why are top players so keen on 7/8 year contracts? Salary cap is unlikely to go down significantly and top money will always be there for quality players like Karlsson and Stone unless dramatic drop off in production surely no-trade clauses on 3/4 year deal would be better for them plus if the team goes bad quick like the Rangers did easier for them to leave for another contender.
Security means a lot and the players signing the max-term contracts are usually getting significant no-trade/no-move protection anyway (at least in their UFA-eligible years). If a player is hitting the open market at 27, a max-term deal is going to take them pretty close to retirement. Waiting three or four years and trying again is going to probably yield a lesser contract for most players.
Let’s look at Karlsson. Previous speculation was that it’s going to take Drew Doughty money (eight years, $11MM per) to get a deal done. Let’s give that to Karlsson but on a four-year pact. That will allow him to hit unrestricted free agency again in July of 2023. However, he’ll be 33 at that time with four more years of mileage on him. By then, he probably won’t be as much of an elite skater either. Even with a higher Upper Limit and a new CBA in place, I’m not sure he’d match $11MM on another deal let alone beat it. The shorter-term deal probably hurts him. Mark Stone is a couple of years younger so he’d have more of a chance but assuming he winds up around $9.5MM or more on his next deal, could he beat that four years from now? I wouldn’t bet on it.
Now, when it comes to RFA players, you’re onto something. Auston Matthews could have pushed for Connor McDavid money (or more) on an eight-year deal but took five years instead (and still wound up with a really high price tag). He’ll be hitting unrestricted free agency in the prime of his career and as long as he stays healthy, it’s a fairly safe bet that he’ll be able to beat whatever the AAV could have been on an eight-year post-RFA deal so the shorter-term strategy will work for him. I expect some of the other top RFAs this summer will pursue a similar route with that in mind and if teams need to compromise on the term to get an AAV more to their liking, they’ll do it.
The shift towards shorter deals is coming but it probably wouldn’t be with the players that are entering unrestricted free agency. Those players will be opting for the security of one last big payday.
ThePriceWasRight: What do you see happening with Erik Karlsson? Sharks can now start negotiating but may want to focus on the season.
While there hasn’t been any information about any talks being held, I’m pretty sure that the Sharks have a pretty good idea of what it’s going to take to lock him up. It’s likely that GM Doug Wilson has spoken with Craig Oster, Karlsson’s agent, to determine what the asking price is and the willingness on their end to sign an extension.
In the short-term, whatever that answer may be doesn’t really change much. Even if for some reason Karlsson decided he wants to go to free agency, San Jose isn’t going to trade him. They’re all in for this season and given what they paid for him, they’ll stick it out. (Considering the clause that says they owe Ottawa another first rounder if he’s dealt back in the East, they wouldn’t run the risk of moving him and having that team flip him back in the East either.)
If I had to guess, I’d speculate that they probably are already pretty close to a contract if one isn’t already in place. Considering he can’t sign an eight-year deal until after the trade deadline passes on Monday, they’ll wait until then at the very least but I think he’ll be staying in San Jose for a long time.
tigers22: Nyquist to Winnipeg for a 1st, Glendening to Toronto for a 3rd, and Howard to San Jose for a future 2nd. If Holland wants to re-sign Nyquist and Howard in the off-season isn’t this the best thing for the Red Wings now and in the future?
Let’s address the second part first. Yes, the trade and sign option on paper is, at least in theory, the best-case scenario for Detroit. They get some assets for the players and then get the players back. It’s the best of both worlds. However, it’s something that rarely happens. (Montreal did it with Tomas Plekanec recently but he’s the exception, not the norm.) If the Red Wings truly want to re-sign them, is the potential trade return worth the risk of not being able to bring them back if they decide they prefer their new team or to test the market? Most GMs don’t think so which is why they often lock up their guys if they can.
As for the trade ideas, I don’t think Nyquist gets a first-rounder. There aren’t many available and as well as he has played this season, there are better players than him available that will likely get those top picks. Glendening to Toronto makes some sense but given the cap situation that the Maple Leafs have, Detroit would either need to retain some salary or take a player back. Howard to San Jose is a fit on paper but I expect the Sharks will ultimately target a cheaper goaltender (think Ryan Miller or Kinkaid).
