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Atlantic Notes: Lightning, Trocheck, Backes, Schenn

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The Tampa Bay Lightning had two chances to acquire superstar defenseman Erik Karlsson to their lineup and while many still feel that they should have gone out and paid the price to bring one more superstar into their lineup, The Athletic’s Joe Smith (subscription required) looks back and feels the team should be thankful it didn’t do that when it had the chance.

While the Lightning seriously considered trading with Ottawa at the trade deadline and then again in the offseason, the team opted to go a cheaper route and bring in defenseman Ryan McDonagh. That trade was critical, according to Smith, who writes has been crucial to the team’s penalty kill, which was 28th in the league at the time of the trade last season. While he doesn’t contribute as much offensively, that’s one area of the game that Tampa Bay doesn’t need help on.

The scribe also points out that the team would have been forced to move Mikhail Sergachev in any deal to acquire Karlsson, and while the youngster has had an up-and-down season so far this year, the team still views Sergachev as a top-four defenseman and a key piece to the Lightning’s long-term future.

  • Wells Dusenbury of the South Florida Sun Sentinel writes that Florida Panthers forward Vincent Trocheck is ahead of schedule in his rehab on his fractured right ankle that he suffered on Nov. 11. The 25-year-0ld returned to the ice both Friday and Saturday. “It was encouraging,” Panthers coach Bob Boughner said. “I talked to him and asked him how it was to be on the ice [Friday] and he said he was a little sore during the day, but he woke up real good today, so that’s a good sign after his first skate.” Boughner said that Trocheck definitely won’t be back until after the all-star break, but much will depend on how he feels with each step in his recovery.
  • Despite never having any success next to David Krejci, Boston Bruins forward David Backes filled in on the team’s second line alongside Krejci and Jake Debrusk and showed that he might be the answer to their team’s hole there, according to NHL.com’s Joe Haggerty. Backes scored the game-winning goal against Buffalo Saturday and looked like the perfect linemate after the team has cycled through Ryan Donato, Anders Bjork and Danton Heinen all failed to succeed there. The 34-year-old has seen his offense decline over the years from a 30-goal threat to a 14-goal season a year ago. With just four goals this season, the team would be thrilled if Backes could contribute in a top-six role in the future.
  • That report comes a day after Haggerty’s report that the Bruins have expressed interest in acquiring Brayden Schenn from St. Louis. While Haggerty writes that the team has shown considerable interest in Minnesota’s Charlie Coyle, the scribe writes that Schenn would be a much more intriguing option to fill the hole on the second line. While the 27-year-old center’s numbers have been down this year with just eight goals and 23 points, he is coming off a 28-goal, 70-point season last year and could be a big addition to a Bruins team if they opt to go out and get him.

Jean-Gabriel Pageau Activated From Injured Reserve

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The Ottawa Senators season certainly hasn’t gone swimmingly to this point, as after a surprisingly good start the team now find themselves in last place in the entire NHL. An abysmal 4-14-1 record on the road is a huge part of that while key injuries have played another big role. One of those injuries was to Jean-Gabriel Pageau, who ruptured his Achilles tendon while performing his fitness testing before the season. Pageau has been out the entire season so far, but today was officially activated from injured reserve and will return to the lineup when the Senators take on the Carolina Hurricanes this afternoon.

Amazingly, Pageau will return less than four months after suffering the injury in mid-September. The original prognosis was that the talented center would be out a minimum of six months, but hard work has gotten him back on the ice much earlier than expected. That’s a huge boost for the Senators, as the team aren’t in the “Lose for Hughes” sweepstakes this year. The Senators famously owe their first-round pick to the Colorado Avalanche, meaning there is no reason to tank for a higher draft slot.

In fact, a little success might go a long way for the organization. Not only would winning infuse some excitement into a fan base that has been repeatedly beat over the head with scandal and rumor the last year and a half, but would also generate even more value for their potential trade chips. While many are looking at Mark Stone, Matt Duchene and Ryan Dzingel as the obvious trade chips, Pageau too may find his name thrown about in the coming weeks.

The 26-year old Pageau has one more year on his contract after this season at a $3.1MM cap hit, a more than reasonable number for a center of his ability. When healthy, Pageau is a reliable two-way option in the middle of the ice that has shown a knack for big-game performances. He led the Senators with eight goals during their 2016-17 Stanley Cup playoff run, and even scored four in ten postseason games as a rookie back in 2012-13. Those kind of contributions are exactly what teams are hoping for with deadline acquisitions, and if the team decides to hold a fire sale his name will surely be asked about.

For now, it’s just a celebration for Pageau as he returns to NHL action way ahead of schedule The Senators are expected to line him up between Zack Smith and Mikkel Boedker for this afternoon’s game.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Dougie Hamilton Potentially Available As Carolina Enters Trade Market

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With talks extension talks cooling with Matt Duchene the Ottawa Senators could be forced to consider moving their unrestricted free agent forward before long, and they’re not the only Eastern Conference team in that situation. The Carolina Hurricanes were also discussed on last night’s Headlines panel between periods of the Vancouver-Toronto game, and Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman indicated that the team are not close on an extension with UFA forward Micheal Ferland and also have two free agent goaltenders who could be of interest before the deadline.

Most notably though, Friedman mentioned Dougie Hamilton as a player that Carolina could consider moving for the right package:

Another name I’m curious about is Dougie Hamilton. They have four right-shot [defensemen], they have been asked about Hamilton. If you’re willing to come back at them with a score, I think that they would consider doing it.

That revelation may come as a surprise, given that Hamilton was the centerpiece in a trade that cost the team both Elias Lindholm and Noah Hanifin just last year. Hamilton hasn’t been quite the dominating right-handed puck mover that the Hurricanes expected, only logging 13 points through his first 40 games. That pact would put him at his lowest point total since 2013-14 with Boston, and much lower than the last few seasons with the Calgary Flames.

Perhaps most telling is Hamilton’s ice time, which has decreased to just over 17 minutes over his last six games including a season-low 14:22 against the Philadelphia Flyers on Thursday night. Part of that decrease can be explained by the Hurricanes’ almost unmatched depth on the right side, with Brett Pesce, Justin Faulk and Trevor van Riemsdyk all right-handed and capable. It’s also not the first time that Hamilton’s name has been included in trade talks.

Originally selected ninth overall by the Boston Bruins in 2011 with a pick the team acquired from the Toronto Maple Leafs, Hamilton lasted just a few years before trade rumors started surfacing. The young defenseman would only play three seasons in Boston before being shipped out to Calgary for a trio of draft picks, only to once again find himself on the block after three years with the Flames. Reports vary on whether Hamilton fit in well with teammates and coaching staffs, but his on-ice play never suffered.

Throughout his short career, the 25-year old has 233 points in 463 games and has been one of the darlings of the analytical community. Driving possession in a way that very few players can match, Hamilton can boost teammates and be a force at both even-strength and on the powerplay. The idea that he could be available once again may not come as a surprise given his history, but it certainly should perk up a few ears around the league. Hamilton carries just a $5.75MM cap hit through 2020-21.

Extension Talks Cooling Between Ottawa Senators, Matt Duchene

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After colleague Elliotte Friedman wrote about the Ottawa Senators and their upcoming extension candidates just earlier today, Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston added some more information during the Headlines segment in the first intermission of the Vancouver Canucks-Toronto Maple Leafs game. Johnston reported that extension talks between the Senators and top center Matt Duchene have cooled off of late, and that he may become more of a trade candidate in the coming weeks:

The clock ticks towards February 25th and the NHL trade deadline, and as it does so it’s quite interesting that the talks between the Ottawa Senators and Matt Duchene—their pending unrestricted free agent—appear to have cooled off. There doesn’t seem to have been anything of substance here in recent times, no talks are immediately scheduled in the weeks ahead. Why this is interesting is because Ottawa has struggled, having lost seven straight. Pierre Dorion, the General Manager obviously doesn’t want to place any sort of a deadline on when he needs an answer on Matt Duchene’s intentions [and] whether he will sign an extension. Clearly as this slides along we are looking at him as a potential target in that trade deadline period and someone that the Senators are going to have to make a decision on. I don’t get the sense from Duchene’s side that there’s any rush for them to make that kind of decision.

Duchene is not the only player on the Senators in this sort of situation, as both Mark Stone and Ryan Dzingel are also unrestricted free agents at the end of the year and would be very appealing to teams at the deadline, but he may be the most important. Dorion went out on a limb last year by trading a huge amount of assets in order to bring Duchene to Ottawa, knowing that he was scheduled for free agency not even two seasons later. The most infamous asset in that package is the first-round pick that Ottawa owes Colorado, which must be given this year even if it is the first overall selection. Watching Duchene walk out the door for nothing in free agency just a few days after that draft would be an absolute disaster for the Senators.

So, it seems as though whether Dorion wants to put a deadline on extension talks or not there will come a day when the Senators need an answer. Allowing the trade deadline to pass without a deal signed and delivered would be extremely dangerous, even if substantial progress has been made. That means the team has just over seven weeks to work something out or they very well could be forced to take the best offer from around the league.

Those offers though should be quite enticing on their own. Duchene is in the midst of the best offensive season of his career with 41 points in 36 games, and has routinely been one of the best players on the ice despite the Senators overall record. The fact that 32 of those points are at even-strength and the 27-year old center has been his usual dominant self in the faceoff circle will only improve the interest from around the league, and there very well could be a bidding war for him as the best center on the market. Duchene’s $6MM cap hit certainly isn’t small, but the Senators could potentially retain salary to make him fit into basically every contender’s financial structure in order to maximize a return.

Still, there’s no reason to assume that things are headed towards a trade for at least another few weeks. Dorion could easily pick up the phone and start up talks again, or reach out with an long-term offer to Duchene’s camp. Until that happens though speculation will run wild around the Senators and their pending free agents, especially after this recent skid has sent them plummeting to the bottom of the NHL standings.

Lou Lamoriello Facing Familiar Deadline Dilemma

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When the New York Islanders watched their captain and franchise player leave for his hometown in a shocking free agent decision, many immediately wrote them off and expected struggles in 2018-19. Long-time NHL executive Lou Lamoriello, who had just taken over General Manager duties from Garth Snow, was not one of those people. Instead of throwing in the towel and trading away anything that wasn’t tied down, Lamoriello instead signed and traded for several players he was familiar with and began installing the elusive “winning culture” that organizations seek constantly. Barry Trotz, who was fresh off a Stanley Cup victory with the Washington Capitals was brought in to make sure there would be more structure on the ice, and veterans like Leo Komarov and Valtteri Filppula were given contracts to surround young Mathew Barzal and company with some more veteran experience.

Now, as the middle of the season approaches for the Islanders they have already shown naysayers that they won’t roll over and die. The team came into action tonight sitting fourth in the Metropolitan Division with a 22-13-4 record and a five-game winning streak. Barzal has found his groove once again and new captain Anders Lee has proven that he was not just a product of Tavares. That success is obviously a great thing for an organization that is still waiting to move into their new permanent home, and one that could have folded after experiencing what many considered a public betrayal by their franchise player.

The success also brings with it a critical decision. What to do at the trade deadline this season?

The Islanders are in one of the most interesting situations in the league, given their high profile talent on expiring contracts. Jordan Eberle, Brock Nelson, Robin Lehner, Filppula and the aforementioned Lee are all scheduled to become unrestricted free agents at the end of the year, which could obviously make them attractive trade chips for the New York front office. If they aren’t going to re-sign these players, perhaps they would be moved for more assets to help out down the line.

That decision though, of whether or not to cash in on an expiring asset or keep them for a potential playoff run is not one that Lamoriello is unfamiliar with. Last season as the GM of the Toronto Maple Leafs, Lamoriello was in a very similar situation. James van Riemsdyk, Tyler Bozak and Komarov were all pending unrestricted free agents and unlikely to be re-signed given Toronto’s upcoming cap crunch. There was interest, but fitting in a deal like the one van Riemsdyk eventually got with Philadelphia was just impossible for the team.

Lamoriello could have traded away these free agents, especially given the deep forward group that was already in the Maple Leafs system, but instead he decided to hold onto all three as “own rentals” at the deadline. The Maple Leafs would qualify for the playoffs, but were immediately ousted by the Boston Bruins in the first round, leaving the forward trio without any playoff success or contracts. It’s hard to say that it was the wrong decision giving the unpredictability of the postseason but this year’s choice is extremely similar.

If the Islanders aren’t planning on re-signing any of their impact forwards, there would certainly be interest at the deadline. There has been discussions with each of them on new contracts but it is not clear where those talks sit at this point. Lee is perhaps the most unlikely to leave given that he was named captain just a few months ago, but a player like Eberle is exactly the type that is moved at the deadline, if healthy at least. The Islanders will have to make a decision on these forwards soon, but at least it’s not one that Lamoriello is unprepared for.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Poll: Should Colorado Move Semyon Varlamov?

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The Colorado Avalanche returned third-string goalie Pavel Francouz to the AHL today. Yet, at this point in their season, it is fair to ask whether that move actually makes the team better. The Avs finally snapped a six-game win-less streak on Friday night against the New York Rangers and have fallen out of the once-competitive Central Division race over the past month. Colorado’s struggles are not singular in nature – a lack of secondary scoring and a struggling penalty kill have played a part – but poor performance in net has been the most pressing issue facing the team. After a hot start to the season, Semyon Varlamov has regressed to a .912 save percentage and 2.80 GAA and has missed the team’s past two games with a lower-body injury. Off-season acquisition Philipp Grubauer has yet to settle in with Colorado, holding a career-worst .902 save percentage and 3.13 GAA thus far.

Considering that Varlamov’s play is not currently winning games for the Avalanche, the team could opt to move on from the veteran keeper. Despite Varlamov’s recent slump, the impending unrestricted free agent would still be a valued name on the trade market as the NHL Trade Deadline grows closer. Several teams will be looking for a rental for the stretch run and postseason and Varlamov could potentially be the closest thing to a bona fide starter that could hit the market. Why then would the playoff-bound Avalanche want to move Varlamov if he’s still a top NHL option? The return would be substantial and could – either directly or by flipping part of the return – result in Colorado adding the forward depth they so desperately need. It was recently reported that the Avs are hesitant to move their top prospects and young roster players for help, which could force them to move an established veteran like Varlamov.

The Avalanche could benefit from some addition by subtraction when it comes to Varlamov as well. The aforementioned Francouz, in his first season in North America after an illustrious European career, has made the transition look easy this season. Recently named an AHL All-Star, Francouz, 28, has a .919 save percentage and 2.65 GAA through 23 games with the Colorado Eagles. Perhaps more impressively, Francouz has made two NHL relief appearances and has saved 33 of the 35 shots that he faced (.943 SV%). The Denver Post’s Sean Keeler writes that head coach Jared Bednar considered making Francouz the starter over Grubauer last night and opined that the current third-string could be the X-factor for the Avs this season. Francouz is also an impending UFA and the team should take a longer look at him this season to determine if he could be a long-term option alongside Gruabauer. An extended stay in Denver this season would certainly help convince Francouz to stick around as well.

Of course, if the Avalanche were to trade Varlamov this season, it would very likely hurt their chances at a Stanley Cup title. Despite his struggles, Varlamov has outplayed Grubauer and has years of success to fall back on, as opposed to his young backup and Francouz, an unproven import. Colorado would likely have to turn around and add another option in net if they were to trade Varlamov. However, given that the Avs face a probable playoff route through the Nashville Predators and Winnipeg Jets this season, it could be that they favor improving the team for the future rather than clinging to slim title chances. The team could also feel that addressing their needs at forward is a priority compared to maintaining depth in net.

What do you think? Should the Avalanche change things up by trading Varlamov for young pieces or forward help and hand the reins to Grubauer and Francouz? Or should they hold on to their established starter in hopes that it is their best chance at a Cup run this season?

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Trade Rumors: Senators, Ferland, Goldobin

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In his latest “31 Thoughts” article, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman poses the question on the mind of many fans and general managers alike: how long will the Ottawa Senators wait to make a decision on the futures of their impending free agent stars? The team made it a point to say early in the season that they had talked about a new contract with Matt Duchene and just recently it was reported that Mark Stone is prepared to talk to the team as well, now that he is eligible for an extension in the new year. Friedman adds that the Ottawa has already approached Ryan Dzingel about a new deal as well. The Senators clearly have plans to discuss contract extensions with the trio, but with the NHL Trade Deadline less than two months away, at what point will they begin talking to other teams instead? On one hand, the Senators owe the bulk of their meager offense to these three impending free agents and seemingly must do their best to bring back as many as they can. Stone leads the team with 45 points, while Duchene has missed six games but nevertheless is second with 40 points, and Dzingel is fourth – third among forwards – with 29 points. The idea that the team could lose all three and somehow improve next season seems like a long shot to say the least. The team has to do their best to resign the group. Yet, if the trio were to depart, it would be much nicer if they did so with a parting gift. Even if GM Pierre Dorion holds on to each player through the deadline in hopes of resigning them, there is no guarantee that they will stay in Ottawa. Rather than lose them for nothing, the Senators would benefit far more from trading them for hefty returns this season. Odds are that the team negotiates with each one of Stone, Duchene, and Dzingel right up until deadline before making a move, but if the market is stronger beforehand, Dorion and company will have some difficult decisions to make.

  • The Carolina Hurricanes are in a similar position with off-season acquisition Micheal Ferland. Ferland, an overlooked part of the Dougie Hamilton trade between the ’Canes and Calgary Flames, has enjoyed a breakout season in Carolina. Ferland is fourth on the team in scoring with 19 points and is currently on pace to set a new career high in scoring despite missing seven games due to injury. Friedman’s opinion on this situation is somewhat more definitive than Ottawa’s. Friedman claims that the two teams are talking extension, but if one is not in place by the trade deadline, Ferland will certainly be moved. The two-way left wing would be a highly valued asset on the rental market and Carolina would not hesitate to get what they can in a trade. Ferland, who has found a fit with Carolina, may not even rule out returning to the team in free agency, even if they can’t come to terms on a new contract this year. The only question remaining is how soon the Hurricanes would be willing to move Ferland if a deal is not coming together.
  • One surprise player who Friedman notes could be available is Vancouver Canucks forward Nikolay Goldobin. Friedman states that the team is merely looking into the potential return for the young winger right now, but even testing the market on Goldobin is unexpected. The 23-year-old winger is fourth on the team in scoring with 23 points in 41 games and at times has looked like a key piece of the young core for the Canucks. Yet, he has also moved around the lineup frequently and has even been a healthy scratch. It could be that Vancouver is fearful of upcoming negotiations with the impending restricted free agent, as GM Jim Benning and head coach Travis Green are not yet sold that he is worthy of a long-term contract, nor does the team want to be saddled with an arbitration decision. Regardless, a young player with the offensive upside of Goldobin is a rare entry into the trade market (although he has already been traded once in his career) and if the Canucks truly make him available, they will surely find takers.

2018 Year In Review: October

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2018 was quite a busy year in the hockey world.  There were several big trades and free agent signings, plenty of changes behind the bench, and much more.  Over the coming days, PHR will continue its look back at the top stories from around the game on a month-by-month basis.  Next up is a look back at October.

Seven Years For Tuch: Although he had barely a full year of regular season experience under his belt, the Golden Knights decided that they’d seen enough from Alex Tuch to hand him a seven-year, $33.25MM contract extension.  The winger was coming off a solid rookie season and showed signs that he will be a quality top-six forward.  While it raised some eyebrows at the time, it looks like a strong decision by GM George McPhee now as the 22-year-old is already up to 32 points in 36 games in the first half of the season.  A pace like that in the second half would put him over 60 which would have given him a lot of leverage if he was still unsigned for 2019-20.

Schultz Out Long-Term: The Penguins were dealt a significant blow early on as defenseman Justin Schultz sustained a broken leg in the fourth game of the season.  He underwent successful surgery that carried a recovery timeline of four months.  He’s only two years removed from a 51-point season and is a big part of Pittsburgh’s back end, especially since he’s one of only two regular right-shot rearguards.  Since he’s expected to return sometime next month, he’ll likely wind up being their significant ‘acquisition’ between now and the trade deadline since they will have to get back into salary cap compliance before he can be activated off LTIR.

Wilson Gets 20: An illegal check by Capitals winger Tom Wilson on St. Louis center Oscar Sundqvist resulted in one of the longest suspensions for an on-ice incident in quite some time as the league handed him a 20-game suspension.  It was his fourth suspension in his last 105 games played and the league came down heavy given that he’s a repeat offender.  Wilson appealed to Gary Bettman who upheld the initial ruling, causing him to appeal to a neutral arbitrator, the same one that reduced Auston Watson’s suspension earlier in the month.  Also worth noting here is that the league granted him non-roster status, something that allowed Washington to call up a replacement.  That’s not something that typically occurs when a player is suspended so it will be worth watching to see if this winds up setting a precedent.

Boyle’s Cancer In Remission: Devils forward Brian Boyle revealed that his cancer is in full remission.  He was diagnosed with chronic myeloid leukemia last season, missing the first month as a result but the news this time around was much better.  The 2018 Bill Masterton Award winner has been fairly productive early on this season with 11 goals in 35 games.  If the Devils decide to become sellers in the coming weeks, Boyle (a pending UFA) will undoubtedly draw the interest of several contenders.

Schmidt Gets Six: It turns out that Tuch wasn’t the only player Vegas locked up in October.  They inked defenseman Nate Schmidt to a six-year, $35.7MM extension that will kick in next season and did so while he was serving a 20-game suspension after testing positive for a banned substance back in the summer.  The 27-year-old has made a significant impact since returning to the lineup as the Golden Knights have lost just seven of 24 games in that span while he leads the team in ice time at over 22 minutes a night.  Two years ago, Schmidt was a depth blueliner in Washington but with Vegas, he has emerged as a legitimate top pairing player.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Derek MacKenzie Will Not Return This Season

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Back in October, Panthers center Derek MacKenzie suffered a shoulder injury in the season-opener against Tampa Bay.  He underwent successful surgery in November and at the time, there was no timeline for a return.  It turns out that he will not be returning after all.  George Richards of The Athletic reports (subscription required) that MacKenzie’s playing career is over and that he has already transitioned into a coaching role with the team.

The 37-year-old came into the season with the idea that he would retire at its conclusion when his contract expired and ceded the captaincy to Aleksander Barkov at the beginning of the season.  Unfortunately, the injury has capped his 2018-19 campaign at all of four shifts, taking away the opportunity to go out under his own terms.

MacKenzie’s career comes to a close with 611 career regular season games played between Atlanta, Columbus, and Florida.  While he was never a prolific scorer (his career high in goals in a single season was nine), he became a valuable energy center that played with a physical edge, could contribute on the penalty, and be above average at the faceoff dot.

Given that he is under contract for this season, his $1.375MM cap hit will remain on the books for the remainder of the year while he’s on injured reserve.  Florida already projects to have $4MM in end-of-season salary cap space per CapFriendly but if the Panthers make a move or two to add salary, they can put MacKenzie’s contract on LTIR to free up some additional cap space if they need to do so.

Nikolaj Ehlers Out Four To Six Weeks

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Jets winger Nikolaj Ehlers suffered an upper-body injury in Friday’s loss to Pittsburgh.  Head coach Paul Maurice told reporters, including Mitchell Clinton of the Jets’ team website (Twitter link), that Ehlers will be out until early-to-mid February as a result, meaning he will miss the next four-to-six weeks.

The injury occurred during the first period in a collision with Penguins center Sidney Crosby.  While Ehlers tried to return later in the period, he left once again after completing one shift and did not return for the rest of the night.

This is another big blow to Winnipeg’s attack.  The 22-year-old sits third on the team in goals with 15 (behind only Patrik Laine and Mark Scheifele) and sixth in points with 27.  He joins defenseman Dustin Byfuglien on the shelf; the blueliner is also expected to be out until late January or early February.

His absence provides an opportunity for Kyle Connor to move back onto the top line.  The 22-year-old winger is in a significant slump at the moment having been held off the scoresheet in ten straight games after playing at nearly a point-per-game pace through the first 30 games of the year.

Winnipeg is one of the lowest-spending teams in the league and they have more than enough salary cap room to add to their lineup if they feel a trade is necessary.  However, given that Laine and Connor, as well as defenseman Jacob Trouba, are all restricted free agents after the season, a roughly $2.5MM raise to winger Blake Wheeler on the books already, and defenseman Tyler Myers’ looming unrestricted free agency, GM Kevin Cheveldayoff will almost assuredly be restricted to pursuing players in the final year of their contracts to ensure as much cap flexibility for next offseason.

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