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Arbitration Breakdown: Tomas Tatar

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After not being able to reach terms on an agreement, the Red Wings and winger Tomas Tatar had their arbitration hearing today.  Assuming they’re unable to reach a settlement before the arbitrator’s decision is rendered, what type of one year deal might Tatar be in for?

The Numbers

Oct 21, 2016; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Red Wings left wing Tomas Tatar (21) skates with the puck in the third period against Nashville Predators at Joe Louis Arena. Detroit won 5-3. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY SportsTatar put up his third straight season with at least 20 goals and 45 points after collecting 25 goals and 21 assists in 81 games with Detroit in 2016-17.  His 25 tallies marked the second highest single-season total of his career.  He ranked third in team scoring in large part due to a strong finish to his year where he recorded 18 points (11-7-18) in March and April, spanning 21 contests.

The Red Wings gave Tatar a career high in ice time, as he logged 17:17 per night which was nearly three minutes a game more than 2015-16.  Despite that boost in playing time, his point-per-game average was no different between the two campaigns at 0.56 which is something that the team likely brought up during the hearing.

Potential Comparables

Here are some comparable players and their contracts within the range of submissions from both sides ($4.1MM by the team, $5.3MM by Tatar).

Chris Kreider (NY Rangers) – Stylistically speaking, Kreider plays a different way than Tatar but at the time his current deal was signed (last offseason), he was coming off a similar season statistically with a point-per-game average of 0.54 while logging nearly 16 minutes a night.  His cap hit checks in at $4.625MM but it’s worth noting that his deal bought out two RFA years.

Gustav Nyquist (Detroit) – Nyquist had a better platform season (54 points in 82 games) than Tatar did but their career numbers thus far are quite similar.  The Wings were able to lock Nyquist up a couple of years ago for four years at an AAV of$4.75MM and the deal only contained one RFA-eligible season which is the situation Tatar is in.

Tyler Johnson (Tampa Bay) – His deal was just reached recently and could stand to impact Tatar’s contract.  Johnson is coming off a couple of injury-plagued seasons (conversely, Tatar has been healthy the last three) but has either equalled or surpassed Tatar’s points-per-game averages over the past four seasons while also playing a bigger role.  He checks in at $5MM and considering the impact he has, Detroit can make a compelling case that Tatar should check in at a lower cap charge, especially for just one year.

Comparable contracts are restricted to those signed within restricted free agency.

Projection

Most of the comparable contracts check in between 6.3% and 7% of the salary cap which, in 2017-18, increases to $75MM.  That provides a salary range of $4.725MM and $5.25MM.  It’s hard to imagine that Tatar will get close to his one-year asking price; not many do when it comes to arbitration awards.  The midpoint is $4.7MM which is close to the lower end of the range based on percentages and that’s the likelier outcome here as quite often deals will fall around the middle mark.  Based on that, I’d project the award to come in at $4.75MM.

What will be interesting is if talks can rekindle on a long-term pact.  Tatar has already turned down five years at $5MM which is pretty close to market value for a player who shifts between the first and second lines.  If Detroit adds a little bit more to their offer, it might be enough to get something done as it’s hard to envision Tatar landing considerably more on the open market next summer unless he has a career season in 2017-18.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Metropolitan Notes: Pittsburgh’s Center Search, Quenneville, Severson

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After losing Nick Bonino to Nashville in free agency, the Penguins have a vacancy to fill at their third line center position.  In a reader chat, Sam Werner of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette noted that the team has only earmarked roughly $2MM towards filling that spot which will limit their options.

While the Pens have more than $10MM in cap space at the moment, most of that will be spent when they reach new deals with winger Conor Sheary and defenseman Brian Dumoulin, both of whom are expected to go through arbitration.

The remaining UFA market is largely weak down the middle aside from Mike Fisher (who isn’t expected to leave Nashville if he returns for another season).  As things stand, Matt Cullen, Pittsburgh’s fourth line pivot this past season, is one of the more prominent names available.  Accordingly, that spot is likely going to be filled via the trade market but it’s reasonable to expect that nothing much will happen on that front until they get their remaining restricted free agents re-signed first.

Other notes from the Metropolitan:

  • Although he was drafted as a center, the Devils feel John Quenneville is best suited as a winger moving forward, AHL bench boss Rick Kowalsky told NJ Advance Media’s Chris Ryan. Kowalsky added that the 21-year-old is comfortable on both wings which could help get him to the NHL quicker.  New Jersey has a lot of talent down the middle and added number one pick Nico Hischier as well as bottom six center Brian Boyle to the mix this offseason so a position change for their top pick in 2014 was already looking like a likely outcome.
  • Still with the Devils, GM Ray Shero noted to The Record’s Andrew Gross that there’s no rush to lock up RFA blueliner Damon Severson. The 22-year-old is coming off his entry-level contract and didn’t have arbitration rights this offseason.  Shero added that there are several different options when it comes to Severson which suggests they will be exploring short-term and long-term offers in the weeks ahead.

Flames Re-Sign Garnet Hathaway To One-Year Deal

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The Flames have come to terms with one of their remaining restricted free agents, announcing that they’ve come to terms with winger Garnet Hathaway on a one-year, two-way contract.  Financial terms of the deal were not disclosed.

Hathaway split 2016-17 between Calgary and their AHL affiliate in Stockton, a role he will likely apprise next season.  In 26 games with the Flames, he had a goal and four assists while averaging a little over nine minutes per game of ice time.  In his NHL career, he has eight points (1-7-8) in 40 games, all with the Flames.

At the minor league level, the 25-year old has been more productive.  This past season, he had eight goals and 12 helpers in 31 games with the Heat and has tallied 77 points over the past three years.

With the signing, Calgary now has five remaining restricted free agents.  Of those, only Sam Bennett is a full-time NHL player.  Their other RFAs are goalies David Rittich and Jon Gillies as well as defensemen Brett Kulak and Tyler Wotherspoon.

Marek Mazanec Signs With Nashville Predators

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Despite rumors that the team would move on from Marek Mazanec this year and him even clearing waivers earlier this month, Craig Morgan of AZ Sports reports that the Nashville Predators have inked the restricted free agent goaltender to a one-year, two-way $650K contract. Mazanec was scheduled for an arbitration hearing on July 27th, but will avoid it with his new contract.

Armed with the knowledge that no other team would take a chance on him and the upcoming hearing, the Predators were able to bring back a depth goaltender on the minimum contract. Though Mazanec has fallen well behind Juuse Saros as the potential backup for Pekka Rinne next year and a possible future starter, he does have 31 games of NHL experience and a fine track record in the AHL. To get that one a two-way deal is excellent, as they’ll have to pay Mazanec just $100K next year in the minors.

It’s interesting to see where Mazanec will fit in exactly, as the team also added both Anders Lindback and Matt O’Connor in free agency this year. All three will have to find playing time somewhere in the minor leagues, unless a move is made to deal one of them elsewhere. A loan to another AHL club is another option.

The Predators now have just Ryan Johansen, Austin Watson and Viktor Arvidsson to worry about as restricted free agents, the latter of which has his hearing scheduled for Saturday after exchanging figures this morning with the club. With almost $19MM in cap space left, they should be able to easily fit the last three into their system.

Snapshots: Tatar, McNeil, Umberger, Tuulola

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Tomas Tatar’s arbitration hearing took place this morning, at the conclusion of which the arbitrator was given 48 hours to reach a decision on his salary for next season. Tatar cannot be awarded a two-year contract through arbitration since he will reach unrestricted free agency next year, but as Craig Custance of The Athletic points out could still work out a long-term deal with the Red Wings before the decision come in. We saw a similar situation play out in 2014 with P.K. Subban, who had his hearing with the Montreal Canadiens before signing an eight-year contract a day later.

Last week it was reported the two sides were still quite a bit away in terms of an agreement, with Tatar turning down a five-year $25MM contract. While they may have worked closer to a deal, a one-year decision through arbitration would likely spell the forward’s end in Detroit. Tatar would immediately hit the trade block if he hadn’t already, with many teams likely after him as a rental piece as the season went on. If Ken Holland and the Red Wings didn’t think they could get a deal done, they would have to look long and hard at any proposals for Tatar that would improve the club long-term.

  • The Syracuse Crunch have signed Reid McNeill to an AHL contract, taking him away from the St. Louis organization where he spent 2016-17 and adding him to the Tampa Bay Lightning affiliate. McNeill was a sixth-round pick of the Penguins in 2010, but has never been able to turn his size and defensive ability into a tryout at the NHL level. In 61 games last year split between the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins and Chicago Wolves, he registered ten points.
  • Dallas Stars beat writer Mike Heika of SportsDay held a Q&A with readers and answered all sorts of questions regarding the Stars and their big offseason moves. One of them revolved around R.J. Umberger, who has signed a professional tryout with the team after a full year away from the game. Heika believes the invitation to camp is more of a friendly opportunity handed out by Umberger’s former coach in Ken Hitchcock than a real tryout for the Stars this season. If Umberger can show he’s healthy and rejuvenated, a successful camp under a familiar system could look good around the league. Now 35, Umberger could potentially sign a one-year contract with performance bonuses, though those kinds of deals come with risks as well.
  • The Montreal Canadiens have re-signed Yannick Veilleux on a two-way minor league deal. The contract will pay different amounts depending on whether Veilleux plays in the AHL or ECHL this season. Veilleux spent last year in the Montreal system bouncing between the two leagues, finding some success with St. John’s. Selected in the fourth round by the St. Louis Blues once upon a time, he’s still waiting for his first chance at the NHL level.
  • The Calgary Flames will watch Eetu Tuulola return to Finland for the upcoming season, leaving the Everett Silvertips where he had played in 2016-17. Tuulola was a sixth-round pick of the Flames in 2016 and tried his hand in the Canadian junior ranks with 31 points in 62 games. He’ll play for HPK in Finland’s Liiga next year, a professional team that can offer a bit more development opportunity than Everett.

Looking Ahead To 35+ Contract Situations

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In the NHL, signing players after they turn 35-years old comes with some added restrictions and capabilities. For one, those players are now eligible for one-year contracts that include performance bonuses, a way to mitigate risk for the team while still providing opportunities for previously successful players. The big restriction though, is that the cap hit of any contract signed after 35 will stay on the books regardless of what happens with the player. Whether their bought out or retire, the team will still face the full cap hit for the entire length of the deal.

This year, we saw Colorado swallow their pride and buy out Francois Beauchemin even with this extra clause, and they will face the full $4.5MM cap hit this season. Mike Cammalleri, who is now 35 himself and was similarly bought out will not fall under this rule because he signed his contract several years ago. Only if the contract is signed after 35 does it come into effect.

With that clear, let’s look at some of the players who will be under contract for the 2018-19 season and could potentially cause their teams a cap hit without actually playing for them. Here are all the 35+ contracts that will still be active after the coming season.

Patrick Marleau – Toronto Maple Leafs

The Toronto Maple Leafs signed Patrick Marleau to a three-year, $18.75MM contract this offseason and took a substantial risk in doing so. Marleau turns 38 before the season starts, and though he has been known to keep his body in great shape throughout his career is clearly on the regular downward trajectory every player experiences. The Maple Leafs did an interesting thing to reduce some of their risk however, by front-loading Marleau’s contract and paying nearly the whole thing out in signing bonuses. Patrick Marleau

On July 2nd 2019, a few months before the final season of the contract begins, Marleau will have just $1.25MM left owed to him. Though he’ll be 41 for that season, and still carrying a $6.25MM cap hit, he’ll be a near-free option for a team struggling to hit the cap floor. That’s assuming he’s not still effective and the Maple Leafs want to keep him around, though they will be paying their young players like Auston Matthews a good chunk of the cap and may need the room. Marleau does have a no-movement clause, but if he’s set on retiring anyway it likely wouldn’t matter to him if his contract was traded.

Justin Williams – Carolina Hurricanes

Williams signed a two-year deal with the Hurricanes to return to the place he won his first Stanley Cup, and he comes with very little risk for the club in terms of retirement. Still a very effective scoring option, last season Williams actually registered his highest goal total since his days in Carolina a decade ago. It’s hard to see how he would fall so far in 2017-18 to make him think retirement was the only option.

That said, there is always a chance that a 35+ player could fall off a cliff production wise or just reach a point in his life that he wants to move on from hockey. If he did that next summer, the Hurricanes would be on the hook for a $4.5MM cap hit with no player to show for it. Luckily, the Hurricanes are one of those cap floor teams and an empty hit like that would pose no issue to their salary structure. They’d rather have an effective Williams in the lineup, but this deal came with almost no risk.

Ron HainseyRon Hainsey – Toronto Maple Leafs

Here come the Maple Leafs again, who handed out two multi-year deals to 35+ players this offseason. Hainsey comes fresh off a Stanley Cup victory with the Pittsburgh Penguins in his first taste of the playoffs, and will be expected to log difficult minutes in Toronto to take some pressure off their young group. His two-year, $6MM deal also comes front loaded should the team need to move him next summer.

Hainsey will be 38 when the contract expires, and some have already started to point out his deficiencies as the years roll on. With the Maple Leafs having to make decisions on James van Riemsdyk, Tyler Bozak, William Nylander and Leo Komarov next summer, any further decline from Hainsey could be a problem. With no buyout relief available, the Maple Leafs would likely have to bite the bullet and keep him around through the end of the deal.

Alex Burrows – Ottawa Senators

It took a two-year extension from the Ottawa Senators to get Burrows to waive his no-trade clause at last year’s deadline, and that number will be tough to watch for the team should he continue his rapid decline. For a player who once scored 35 goals in a season, Burrows had just 24 the last two combined. While he did show some better jump in the Ottawa lineup, the team has several young players who will deserve more playing time over the next couple of seasons.

$2.5MM isn’t the end of the world, but when you’re a team who works on a tight internal budget like the Senators every dollar can mean a lot. Without the buyout option and the risk of Burrows hanging it up, that $2.5MM could haunt them next summer. Luckily, it will expire before the team needs to shell out the dollars for Erik Karlsson, who will be eligible for extension next offseason but won’t have his expected record-breaking deal kick in until 2019-20.

Ryan Miller – Anaheim Ducks Ryan Miller

Anaheim took a risk handing out a 35+ contract to Miller, but there doesn’t seem to be any sign of him wanting to retire just yet. He’s now closer to his offseason home with actress Noureen DeWulf, and $2MM per season to backup John Gibson seems like a perfect scenario 37-year old goaltender. Even though he could suddenly turn ineffective, their faith in Gibson and his similar inexpensiveness (he’s owed just $2.3MM in each of the next two seasons) covers their back.

Derek MacKenzie – Florida Panthers

The two-year extension the Panthers gave their captain last summer was a surprising one, if only because you don’t usually see players of his stature receive a guaranteed contract a year before they’re due for one. MacKenzie signed his first 35+ contract, but it comes at such a small cost—$2.75MM total over two years—that it poses little risk. The team wouldn’t need to buy him out, and even if he were to hang up his skates next summer they would have plenty of cap room. Besides, the Panthers have had great success with 35+ contracts in the past—just ask Jaromir Jagr.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Morning Notes: Hischier, Duchene, Moses

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When the New Jersey Devils strode to the podium at the NHL Entry Draft this year, there was one name on their minds: Nico Hischier. The Swiss-born forward playing in Eastern Canada had flown up draft boards with a big season, and would become the first-overall pick ahead of long-expected Nolan Patrick. Immediately Devils fans started speculating on where Hischier fit in both long and short term on the team, hoping maybe he could even crack the roster as an 18-year old.

Mike Morreale of NHL.com now reports that Devils’ coach John Hynes expects Hischier to play center right from the beginning, and doesn’t need the protection of starting on the wing. That would push someone else aside, and as Morreale projects that would be Adam Henrique moving to the wing. Remember, the Devils also brought in Brian Boyle and Marcus Johansson to the forward group, giving them half a dozen players capable of lining up in the middle.

  • Craig Custance of The Athletic was on Sportsnet 960 radio this morning, talking mostly about his outlet’s new take on sports journalism. He did offer an interesting take on the Matt Duchene situation though, saying that there has been some frustration around the league that Joe Sakic is holding out for “a homerun”. Custance says that Colorado is “really trying to win that deal and do it lop-sided” which is holding up any potential move. With the Avalanche struggling to reclaim relevancy, and with bad trade examples in recent history, Duchene has to be a win for the franchise.
  • Stevie Moses is back in North America for the 2017-18 season, signing a one-year AHL deal with the Rochester Americans. Moses has had quite the hockey career so far, from lighting up the NCAA with the University of New Hampshire, to leading the KHL in goal scoring in Jokerit’s first year in the league (ahead of players like Ilya Kovalchuk, Artemi Panarin and Alexander Radulov). Though he’s had AHL stints before, the undrafted Moses has never made it to the NHL and still would have to show something new in his game to get there.

Viktor Arvidsson, Nashville Predators Exchange Arbitration Figures

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Though Colton Parayko has avoided arbitration with the St. Louis Blues, the other hearings are still rapidly approaching. Viktor Arvidsson is set to have his heading on Saturday, and has exchanged figures with the Nashville Predators. The team has offered a two-year deal worth $5.5MM, while Arvidsson wants just one year at $4.5MM according to Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet.

The gap of $1.75MM seems quite large, but unlike in the MLB an arbitrator does not have to side with one figure or the other. The actual salary could come somewhere in between. Just like Parayko however, the team still has 48 hours to try and get a deal done that would lock up Arvidsson longer than two years.

Arvidsson’s case is an interesting one. The undersized winger wasn’t drafted until he was already 21 years old, and even then just in the fourth round. Another year and a half in the minors, and he has just 142 NHL contests under his belt at age-24. He did break out this season for 31 goals and 61 points and no one doubts his talents, but as Mike Furlano explained this week there are certain things you can and can’t bring up in arbitration hearings. Arvidsson’s relative inexperience is definitely something the team will use against him.

The fact that he’s 24 also poses some problems to a long-term deal. Arvidsson is just three years away from unrestricted free agency, so any term beyond that would be paying for years that he believes would be his prime earning period. If he believes he can maintain this production (and why wouldn’t he) it would be a huge bidding war for his services on the open market. It’s difficult for the team to extend that much capital and give him anything close to fair market value on his UFA years though after just one season, making it a tough negotiation for both sides.

Colton Parayko Signs Five-Year Deal With St. Louis

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With the arbitration hearing for Colton Parayko about to start, the two sides have agreed upon a five-year, $27.5MM contract. The deal will keep Parayko in St. Louis until he is 29, at which point he will be an unrestricted free agent. While the average annual value will be $5.5MM, the contract breaks down as follows:

  • 2017-18: $6.5MM
  • 2018-19: $6.5MM
  • 2019-20: $5.525MM
  • 2020-21: $3.35MM
  • 2021-22: $5.625MM

Colton Parayko

This is quite the contract for both sides, as the Blues will buy out two UFA years from Parayko in exchange for a strong cap number next season. There are 32 other defensemen who will be paid at least $5.5MM next season, meaning Parayko will need to continue to perform at quite a high level in order to justify the contract. That doesn’t seem to be a problem for the young defenseman, as his first two years have been excellent and he looks ready to take another step forward.

If you were to look at Parayko without knowing anything about him, he might seem to you to be a hulking defender that could be useful on the penalty kill but probably lacks skating ability or offensive upside. His 6’5″ frame and incredibly long reach brings more visions of Hal Gill than Paul Coffey. Nothing could be further from the truth though, as Parayko combines incredible stick handling with a sharp first pass and above average elusiveness to create offensive chances on the regular.

Blues fans will be incredibly pleased with the deal, as it brings in a budding superstar behind captain Alex Pietrangelo in terms of salary, and allows them the flexibility next season to worry about Robby Fabbri’s next deal and finding a replacement for Paul Stastny (unless Brayden Schenn is that already). The team now has six defensemen under contract for next season, a group that would rank among the best in the league in many categories. Parayko came in third among defensemen in ice time last year behind Pietrangelo and veteran Jay Bouwmeester, but without Kevin Shattenkirk in town for the whole year will likely be asked to do even more this season.

Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet was first to break the deal, giving us the length and total. Craig Morgan of AZ Sports gave us the year-by-year breakdown.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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