Top Five Remaining Unrestricted Free Agents
Back in June, we posted our Top 50 Unrestricted Free Agents. Since then, we’ve seen 38 of our top 50 have signed in the NHL, Brad Richards and Dan Boyle retired, and Kris Versteeg signed in Europe. There are nine players from our list still unsigned.
Let’s take a look at the Top Five UFAs still unsigned:
1. Jiri Hudler (18) – PHR originally predicted a four-year, $16MM contract with New Jersey. While 46 points is still solid for a 32-year-old, Hudler is two years removed from a 76-point, Lady Byng-winning campaign, so the perception is that he’s on the decline. Meanwhile, the Devils traded for Taylor Hall and therefore weren’t looking for another scoring winger. Hudler still offers value for teams looking for a possession positive, offensive winger. Teams have to decide if they’re acquiring the 46-point Hudler, or the 76-point one. Look for a one-year contract in the range of $1MM.
2. James Wisniewski (NR) – Back on June 21 when we posted the original Top 50, Wisniewski was still a member of the Carolina Hurricanes. He was bought out by the Hurricanes on June 30 after playing just 0:47 seconds with them after tearing his ACL on his first shift. We profiled Wisniewski further here. He’s an offensively skilled, right-handed defenseman which has value, but teams will be wary of giving him anything more than a tryout at training camp or one year for cheap.
3. Brandon Pirri (NR) – Similar to Wisniewski, Pirri was not on our original list because he was property of the Anaheim Ducks. However, the Ducks chose not to offer Pirri a qualifying offer, despite him being an offensively talented winger; the budget Ducks likely wanted to avoid heading to arbitration. Pirri is an interesting player, and two years removed from a Cy Young caliber season with 22 goals and 2 assists. He could be an option for teams like the Oilers to upgrade on Nail Yakupov. Look for him to get a one or two year deal in the $1-2MM range, depending on the situation.
4 . Radim Vrbata (27) – Vrbata is coming off a terrible season with just 27 points in 63 games. However, like Hudler, he’s two years removed from a tremendous season, putting up 31 goals and 63 points. Some talk was made around the trade deadline about the Canucks not getting a single concrete trade offer for Vrbata. We originally predicted a one-year, $3.7MM contract with the Avalanche. At this point, if Vrbata is going to get any offers, look for similar terms as Wisniewski: PTO or cheap one-year contract in the Sam Gagner range.
5. Alex Tanguay (33) – We predicted Tanguay signing a one-year, $2.5MM contract with Arizona, where he finished last season. Tanguay is getting up there in age (he’ll turn 37 in November), but has shown the ability to perform in a scoring role. He’s not particularly skilled on the defensive or physical sides of the game, but Tanguay would be a decent fit for a team looking for either a short-term upgrade or a bridge player until a prospect is ready. At this point, expect him to attend a training camp on a PTO.
Snapshots: Blues, Hall, Seguin
The St. Louis Blues will have a vastly different look this season after a summer of big changes. In an online chat on the St. Louis Post-Dispatch website, Jeremy Rutherford chatted about some of the differences Blues fans can expect this coming season.
Regarding the Brian Elliott trade, Rutherford believed Blues GM Doug Armstrong made the trade to avoid losing him for nothing next summer when Elliott is a UFA. While the trade could go wrong if Jake Allen struggles or gets hurt, the trade makes sense, asset-management wise.
Former captain David Backes left town for a bigger contract in Boston; while Backes claimed Bruins forwards Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand convinced him to sign in Boston, Rutherford shut down that idea saying players will sign wherever is best for them and that if the Blues had offered Backes a fifth year, then it wouldn’t have mattered what Bergeron and Marchand said. As far as replacing Backes as captain, Rutherford felt it was safe to assume one of the remaining assistant captains (Alex Pietrangelo and Alex Steen) would be the new captain. The new assistant would likely be one of Paul Stastny, Jaden Schwartz, and Vladimir Tarasenko – who Rutherford believed was “pretty disappointed to not get an A last year”.
Here are some other notes from around the hockey world:
- It’s New Jersey Devils day on Pro Hockey Talk, and they have named Taylor Hall as their player under pressure this season. Adam Gretz justified the choice by saying while he knows Hall will produce, he’ll be under scrutiny because of the perception that he’s at fault for the Oilers misfortunes over the last six years and the high price that the Devils parted with to acquire him. Oscar Klefbom‘s comments about Hall and Ben Scrivens subsequent agreement will also be weighing on Hall as he looks to prove his former team and teammates wrong.
- Speaking of top picks from the 2010 NHL Draft that Peter Chiarelli has traded, Dallas Stars center Tyler Seguin says he’s ready to go for the upcoming World Cup in September. Seguin missed all but one of the Stars playoff games with Achilles and calf injuries. Seguin told Steve Hunt of NHL.com it’s been “a bit of a different summer as far as training-wise just coming off an injury, but feeling great and looking forward to the World Cup”.
Restricted Free Agent Contract Projections: Kucherov, Gaudreau, Lindholm, Trouba
Late in restricted free agency, there are still a number of highly skilled players who remain unsigned. These players generally lack leverage, because other teams behave cautiously given the compensation rules. Then consider that this late in the summer, most teams have their budgets set. If a restricted free agent is paid, it’s often to buy years of unrestricted free agency.
Even into August, there are still candidates to have those years controlled. Here’s a look at what kind of deals four of them may be pursuing.
- Nikita Kucherov – Having just turned 23, Kucherov is coming off a 30 goal, 36 assist season, leading the Lightning with 66 points. In 2015, his season was nearly identical, with one fewer goal, and the same number of assists. Filip Forsberg is a year younger, but put up very similar offensive numbers for Nashville this year. Forsberg just signed a six year contract worth $6MM per year. Look for Kucherov to get a similar deal. Projection: 6 years, $36MM
- Johnny Gaudreau – Just shy of 23, Gaudreau has 55 goals, 143 points, in 160 NHL games. This year, Gaudreau hit career highs of 30 goals and 48 points in 79 games. There has been talk of the Flames and Gaudreau pushing for a deal since February, with nothing to show for it. As Eric Francis notes in that link, the closest comparable is Vladimir Tarasenko, who is signed to an eight-year, $60MM contract. Still, there’s a case Gaudreau has actually shown more in the NHL than Tarasenko had before signing. The Flames are also more dependent on him, at least until someone like Sam Bennett breaks out. Projection: 8 years, $64MM
- Hampus Lindholm – At 22, Lindholm led defensemen in Corsi Relative. That is, he increased his team’s share of the game’s shot attempts more than any defenseman to play 750 minutes. Lindholm’s problem is that NHL teams are often skeptical of these numbers. This leaves defensemen of similar ages and with similar scoring numbers as the most likely comparisons. Calgary’s Dougie Hamilton got $5.75MM per season last year, but he also plays the much scarcer right side, and Calgary traded assets for him. It would have been fairly embarrassing had he not been signed quickly. The Ducks will play hardball, but if they get Lindholm at under that price, it’ll be well worth it. Projection: 5 years, $25MM
- Jacob Trouba – Trouba is 22 and well regarded around the league, but the reported debate over role will hurt him. As mentioned before, restricted free agents are paid usually when teams want to buy years of unrestricted free agency. If the Jets don’t believe that Trouba is ready for an increased role, it’s unlikely they’re in a rush to pay him for it. This has the looks of something bitter developing, but it’s most likely he’ll get some sort of bridge deal. Projection: 2 years, $8MM
Questions On Four Players On Expiring Contracts
It’s just under eleven months until the 2017 free agent period, but the concerns about players on expiring deals should already be starting. Many bigger names sign quickly once they’re eligible to, a year in advance. This year, we’ve already seen Lightning defenseman Victor Hedman and Stars forward Jamie Benn signed to long-term extensions.
Those are contending teams extending superstars who are obviously in their prime. Not every good player on an expiring contract is such an obvious case. Here are four players whose contracts will expire after this season, and what their teams might think about them.
- Brad Marchand – Marchand is a great player, who scores goals, agitates, and plays well defensively. Coming off a 37 goal season, he’s in line for a pretty big contract. Still, he’ll be 29 when his contract expires next July, and the Bruins are going to have to reckon with where they are as a franchise. They have plenty of cap room, but should they miss the playoffs for a third straight year, it might be time to rebuild. Zdeno Chara, Patrice Bergeron, and Tuukka Rask aren’t getting any younger. It’s not that Marchand is old, or has to be moved. The question is whether to give the kind of term that will likely be demanded from a player who will be well into his thirties at the end of a rebuilding effort.
- Ben Bishop – Bishop has been the subject of trade speculation all summer. The Lightning are serious contenders, winning five playoff rounds in two years, and aren’t looking to give away key players off their roster. The dilemma is about his salary, and the expectations around backup Andrei Vasilevskiy. The Lightning will probably give Vasilevskiy every opportunity to win the job, and if he does, trade Bishop at the deadline. Should Vasilevskiy be unable to demand the starting job, Tampa Bay could be forced to try to re-sign Bishop at the last minute.
- Brent Burns – Burns has probably the fewest question marks of anyone on this list. The Sharks have managed to keep bringing back other stars, like Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau, despite their age, and continue to contend. Burns can play on the wing or defense, scores at a ridiculous rate, and was arguably their best player during their Stanley Cup run this year. The question comes down to price tag, and how much Burns wants to stay in San Jose. Given his teammates, their success, and the California weather, if they can make room, Burns should be in San Jose for a long time.
- Kevin Shattenkirk – Another subject of trade discussion all summer, it’s looking less likely he’ll be a Blue this time next year. It’s just rare for a team to shop a player of his caliber if the team thinks they can keep him. Still, the Blues are really good, and it’s hard to see him being moved for prospects or draft picks. If Shattenkirk is traded before his contract expires, St. Louis will want back a scoring forward. There’s been speculation about Rick Nash and Taylor Hall, but the latter has already been dealt. Of all the players here, Shattenkirk looks most likely to hit free agency in 2017.
Snapshots: Kunlun Red Star, Las Vegas, Scrivens On Hall
The KHL’s Chinese expansion team, Kunlun Red Star, won their first game on Saturday. Kunlun had previously played and lost their first three games against Traktor, Spartak, and Amur by a combined score of 9-3. They didn’t score until the final pre-season game.
Now, they have moved from playing in mostly empty arenas in Finland to Kazakhstan for the President of Kazakhstan’s Cup. Kunlun opened the pre-tournament action against KHL team Barys Astana in Astana. The game was reportedly very intense, as China and Kazakhstan are rivals in other sports. This game was no different; the teams combined for 196 PIM in a 3-1 Kunlun victory. The two teams meet again on Monday.
More notes from around the hockey world:
- According to a report in the Las Vegas Review-Journal, the NHL’s expansion team has narrowed it down to four potential team nicknames. However, the new franchise is having trademark issues: the OHL’s London Knights own the trademark for the name in Canada. Owner Bill Foley told the Review-Journal that acquiring the name Knights is “not economically feasible”. Foley hopes to have the name and merchandise ready for late September or early October.
- Finally, former Oilers goalie Ben Scrivens chimed in on Oscar Klefbom‘s negative comments about former teammate Taylor Hall in late July. In a yet-to-be-posted interview with Russian hockey writer Igor Eronko, Scrivens said Klefbom “would know pretty well, he played with him for a while, and I can’t say he’s wrong”. Scrivens and Hall were teammates in Edmonton for a season and a half, during which the Oilers had a record of 38-59-18.
Salary Cap Report: Central Division
As the hockey world takes its collective breath before the World Cup, training camps, and the regular season, most teams have checked off their boxes and marked their ledgers. Some teams are not finished building their rosters, with RFAs still to sign and trades to explore. Some teams have plenty of space to maneuver with; other teams will need to get creative to stay under the cap.
We’ll complete our Salary Cap Reports by taking a look at the Central Division. Of note:
- The Central Division has the two highest paid players in the NHL in Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews. The Blackhawks captain and leading scorer signed matching eight-year, $84MM extensions in the summer of 2014.
- After June’s blockbuster trade, the NHL’s highest paid defenseman is now in the Central: P.K. Subban and his $9MM cap hit are now members of the Nashville Predators. The Predators also have the highest paid goalie in the division, with Pekka Rinne making $7MM per season.
- With Dallas captain Jamie Benn signed to a long-term extension already, there aren’t any superstar pending-UFAs in the Central, but veteran scoring wingers Patrick Sharp and Alex Steen are both up at the end of this season. Calder Trophy winner Artemi Panarin and Ryan Johansen headline next summer’s RFAs.
By the numbers:
- Chicago Blackhawks
Cap Space Remaining: $2,490,705
Greatest Cap Hit: Jonathan Toews/ Patrick Kane: $10.5MM - Colorado Avalanche
Cap Space Remaining: $1,534,405
Greatest Cap Hit: Nathan MacKinnon: $6.3MM - Dallas Stars
Cap Space Remaining: $7,984,167
Greatest Cap Hit: Jason Spezza: $7.5MM (Jamie Benn’s $9.5MM per year extension doesn’t begin until 2017-18) - Minnesota Wild
Cap Space Remaining: $2,168,909
Greatest Cap Hit: Zach Parise/ Ryan Suter: $7.54MM - Nashville Predators
Cap Space Remaining: $5,414,166
Greatest Cap Hit: P.K. Subban: $9MM - St. Louis Blues
Cap Space Remaining: $3,957,083
Greatest Cap Hit: Vladimir Tarasenko: $7.5MM - Winnipeg Jets
Cap Space Remaining: $10,018,333
Greatest Cap Hit: Dustin Byfuglien: $7.6MM
Also in the Salary Cap Report series: Atlantic Division, Metropolitan Division, and Pacific Division.
Salary Cap Report: Pacific Division
As the hockey world takes its collective breath before the World Cup, training camps, and the regular season, most teams have checked off their boxes and marked their ledgers. Some teams are not finished building their rosters, with RFAs still to sign and trades to explore. Some teams have plenty of space to maneuver with; other teams will need to get creative to stay under the cap.
We’ll continue our Salary Cap Reports by taking a look at the Pacific Division. Of note:
- The Flames have the most cap space in their division, and second-most in the league behind the Hurricanes. However they still have to sign Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan, which will likely take up most of the $14.96MM of space they currently have.
- Anze Kopitar‘s new extension will make him the highest paid player in the NHL this season. He’ll make $14MM in real dollars this season; his $10MM cap hit is second to only Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane. Kopitar will likely only enjoy the status of highest paid in the division until Connor McDavid‘s entry-level contract expires in 2018.
- The Pacific features the four highest-paid pending-UFAs in Pavel Datsyuk ($7.5MM), Joe Thornton ($6.75MM), Patrick Marleau ($6.66MM), and Ryan Miller ($6MM). However, Datsyuk has left the NHL and will not be paid by Arizona, despite counting against the cap.
By the numbers:
- Anaheim Ducks
Cap Space Remaining: $8,407,500
Greatest Cap Hit: Corey Perry: $8.625MM - Arizona Coyotes
Cap Space Remaining: $8,847,875
Greatest Cap Hit: Pavel Datsyuk: $7.5MM (inactive)/ Mike Smith: $5.666MM (active) - Calgary Flames
Cap Space Remaining: $14,969,600
Greatest Cap Hit: Mark Giordano: $6.75MM - Edmonton Oilers
Cap Space Remaining: $9,238,833
Greatest Cap Hit: Jordan Eberle/ Milan Lucic/ Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: $6MM - Los Angeles Kings
Cap Space Remaining: $1,154,773
Greatest Cap Hit: Anze Kopitar: $10MM - San Jose Sharks
Cap Space Remaining: $995,832
Greatest Cap Hit: Joe Thornton: $6.75MM - Vancouver Canucks
Cap Space Remaining: $2,771,250
Greatest Cap Hit: Henrik Sedin/ Daniel Sedin: $7MM
Also in the Salary Cap Report series: Metropolitan Division and Atlantic Division.
Hurricanes Notes: Skinner, Aho, Season Expectations
It’s Carolina Hurricanes day over at Pro Hockey Talk and they’ve written quite a bit about one of the rising teams in the Eastern Conference. Adam Gretz reports that the Hurricanes offense goes as Jeff Skinner goes and that a roster chock full of “kids” will rely heavily on his guidance. Gretz writes that despite only being 24, Skinner is the second longest tenured ‘Cane after goalie Cam Ward. Boasting two 30-goal seasons already, Gretz adds that Skinner is in elite company when it comes to goal scoring and shots stats, joining names like Sidney Crosby, Ilya Kovalchuk, Steven Stamkos, and Alex Ovechkin. Gretz cautions that he is not comparing Skinner in terms of ability–as it would be unfair–but he does indicate that Skinner has been “extremely productive” and should serve as the face of the franchise for years to come.
In other Hurricanes news:
- Gretz continues his Canes coverage, profiling up and coming prospect Sebastian Aho. The 2015 second round draft pick is one to watch, Gretz writes, due to his scoring prowess and the Carolina’s desperate need for offense. In the Finnish league, Gretz adds that Aho was a point-per-game player and was his team’s leading scorer–despite being 18. Though he can’t project Aho’s place on the team, Gretz does say that the opportunity is his to seize. Further, general manager Ron Francis was quoted as saying that Aho was, “certainly penciled into our lineup, if not in pen.” That’s certainly a good sign for Aho, and if his production continues, it’ll be a greater sign for Carolina.
- To wrap up the early Canes coverage, Mike Halford wrote that Carolina is poised to take the next step as a team and make the playoffs. Halford points to the hiring of Bill Peters as a catalyst for the Hurricanes quick rise with young talent. Add in Francis’ work to build a young, talented lineup and Carolina certainly looks like a threat in the East. As reported earlier, Halford and other writers believe the true X-factor will be the performance of their goaltending duo, Cam Ward, and Eddie Lack.
Snapshots: Hudler, Pirri, Vesey, Ward
Much has been written about the best free agents available and Ian McLaren reports that of the top three teams should look at, one isn’t available until August 15th. Add McLaren to the Jimmy Vesey fan club as he lists him behind Jiri Hudler and Brandon Pirri as the three best potential additions to teams still kicking the tires. Hudler, McLaren writes, will come at a significant discount from the $4MM he made last season. He also notes that despite a fall off, Hudler still brings value to any team willing to invest in him. McLaren believes that Pirri is one of the more under appreciated players available. Pirri scored goals on limited ice time, and if given a bigger role, could show flashes of brilliance while also coming dirt cheap.
McLaren saves Vesey for last, listing the Maple Leafs, Bruins and Blackhawks as three of the top suitors for the 23-year-old Hobey Baker winner. The buzz continues to rise as August 15th approaches–the date that Vesey can meet with teams and make his final decision. McLaren writes that should Vesey’s college production continue into the pros, one NHL team will be rewarded handsomely.
In other NHL news:
- Cam Ward‘s best season may have been when he was 21-years-old writes NBC’s Adam Gretz. Ward, Gretz argues, played to a peak and rode a two month hot streak back in 2006 that backstopped the Hurricanes to their first–and only–Stanley Cup championship. Since then, Ward has held the Hurricanes back on more than one occasion, and last season, along with Eddie Lack, Ward was a prime reason the Hurricanes underachieved. Gretz writes that despite being a top 1o possession team, the ‘Canes sputtered due to poor goaltending. He further points out that Ward’s numbers have been in the bottom third of the league for the past few seasons. It’s Ward’s year, he continues, to prove the Hurricanes right for their loyalty. Should Ward have even an average year, Carolina could be looking at a playoff appearance. But another substandard season could spell doom for both the Hurricanes playoff hopes and Ward’s playing time.
Salary Cap Report: Metropolitan Division
As the hockey world takes its collective breath before the World Cup, training camps, and the regular season begins, most teams have checked off their boxes and marked their ledgers. There are some teams not finished, as trades or financial meandering will be necessary due to cap crunches. Others have plenty of room.
We’ll look at the Metropolitan Division next. Some interesting notes:
- The Hurricanes have the most cap space of any team in the NHL.
- The Rangers’ Henrik Lundqvist has the highest cap hit of any goalie in the NHL. The second highest is Columbus’ Sergei Bobrovsky.
- Four of the NHL’s top ten cap hits are found in the division: (Alex Ovechkin, Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby, Henrik Lundqvist. Claude Giroux is 11th).
By the numbers:
- Carolina Hurricanes
Cap Space Remaining: $16,736,667
Greatest Cap Hit: Jordan Staal: $6MM - Columbus Blue Jackets
Cap Space Remaining:$3,817,857
Greatest Cap Hit: Sergei Bobrovsky: $7.43MM - New Jersey Devils
Cap Space Remaining: $13,034,404
Greatest Cap Hit: Taylor Hall/Cory Schneider: $6MM - New York Islanders
Cap Space Remaining: $3,658,524
Greatest Cap Hit: Johnny Boychuk: $6MM - New York Rangers
Cap Space Remaining:$3,425,000
Greatest Cap Hit: Henrik Lundqvist: $8.5MM - Philadelphia Flyers
Cap Space Remaining: $413,334
Greatest Cap Hit: Claude Giroux: $8.275MM - Pittsburgh Penguins
Cap Space Remaining: -$2,757,499
Greatest Cap Hit: Evgeni Malkin: $9.5MM - Washington Capitals
Cap Space Remaining: $3,454,871
Greatest Cap Hit: Alex Ovechkin: $9.54MM
