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Snapshots: Vrbata, Chipchura, Girgensons, Nesterov, Keller

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Free agent right winger Radim Vrbata appears to be getting closer to signing a contract.  His agent Rich Evans told AZ Sports’ Craig Morgan that they “have been discussing the structure of a contract with four teams and hope to come to an agreement shortly”.  He picked up 13 goals and 14 assists in 63 games with Vancouver last season.  Vrbata ranked 27th on our Top 50 UFA list and while Evans didn’t provide any specifics about which teams he was talking to but we suggested in his free agent profile that the Senators, Hurricanes, Rangers, Ducks, Bruins, and Sabres all could have a spot for him.

More news and notes from around the hockey world:

  • Former first round pick Kyle Chipchura has signed a one year contract with HC Slovan Bratislava, the KHL team announced. He was Montreal’s first round pick in 2004 (18th overall) but didn’t turn into the high end checking center that the Canadiens envisioned.  Chipchura was able to churn out a decent NHL career though, playing in 482 career games with Montreal, Anaheim, and Arizona, collecting 104 points and at just 30 years of age, could potentially earn another NHL deal with a good showing overseas.
  • Zemgus Girgensons’ negotiations with the Sabres on a new deal could prove to be a challenge, writes Mike Harrington of the Buffalo News. Harrington suggests that the 22 year old is likely looking for a two or three year deal but that will be more difficult since he’s coming off a down year.  Last season, Girgensons had career lows across the board with just seven goals and 11 assists in 71 games while seeing his average ice time drop over four minutes from 2014-15.  Buffalo’s $874K qualifying offer to him expired last week.
  • The Russian Ice Hockey Federation announced that Tampa Bay defenseman Nikita Nesterov has been named to Team Russia for the upcoming World Cup. He will replace former Los Angeles rearguard Slava Voynov who was deemed ineligible by the NHL as he remains under indefinite suspension for his arrest on felony domestic violence in late 2014.  Nesterov is the fourth member of the Lightning to be named to the Russian team, joining forwards Nikita Kucherov and Vladislav Namestnikov as well as goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy.
  • One of the bigger off-ice battles has been surrounding Arizona 2016 first round pick Clayton Keller, notes Ryan Kennedy of The Hockey News. He has committed to Boston University of the NCAA but the OHL’s Windsor Spitfires hold his junior rights and are trying to entice him to forego school and go there instead.  Kennedy reports that at this stage, Keller is intent on sticking to his college commitment but as we’ve seen in past years, things can change in a hurry in these recruitment battles.

Arbitration Breakdown: Marcus Johansson

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The first arbitration numbers have been filed as Washington and left winger Marcus Johansson each made their submissions in advance of Wednesday’s hearing.  According to Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman, the Capitals have offered a one year deal at $3.85MM while Johansson’s camp is seeking $5.25MM.  Here is a closer look at Johansson’s case.

[For more background on the arbitration process, consult Parts One and Two of our Capology 101: Arbitration series.]

The Numbers

Points wise, Johansson has been quite consistent over the past three years, collecting between 44 and 47 points in each.  In 2015-16, he suited up in 74 games for the Caps, scoring 17 goals and 29 assists, matching the second highest point total of his career.  That ranked him sixth in team scoring.  The bulk of his production came in the second quarter of the season though where he collected 17 points in that span; his point totals in any of the other three quarters failed to exceed 12.

Johansson was a top six forward with Washington and a fixture on their power play, logging 2:44 per night with the man advantage last season.  He also spent more time at center than he had since 2011-12, taking 278 faceoffs, winning 46% of them.  In the postseason, he added seven points in 12 games which also ranked him sixth on the team.

In the early stages of his career, Johansson was predominantly a playmaker as 70% of his points in his first four seasons were assists.  The 25 year old has shown more of a scoring touch the last two years, however, as only 60% of his points have been assists.  This can only work to strengthen Johansson’s case as goal scoring is a major factor in arbitration awards and a more well-rounded offensive player should stand to earn more than a one-dimensional playmaker.

Potential Comparables

Colin Wilson (Nashville) – Wilson avoided arbitration with the Preds last offseason, agreeing to a four year deal with a cap hit of $3.9375MM coming off a 20 goal, 42 point season where he averaged over 16 minutes per game.  Like Johansson, Wilson also spent some time at centre and the wing and has been more of a playmaker than a scorer throughout his career.

Nazem Kadri (Toronto) – Like Johansson last offseason, Kadri spent 2015-16 on a one year, ‘prove it’ deal and parlayed that into $4.5MM per season for six years.  Over the past three seasons, their points per game averages are nearly identical (0.59 for Kadri, 0.58 for Johansson) and play similar roles with their respective clubs.

Craig Smith (Nashville) – Smith’s year-to-year production when he signed a five year deal with a $4.25MM AAV was more volatile than Johansson’s but the overall numbers are comparable.  Both players are secondary producers that have left their teams wanting more at times, particularly in the consistency department.

Comparable contracts are restricted to those signed within restricted free agency.

Projection

Last offseason, Johansson was awarded $3.75MM coming off a season that was quite similar to the one he had in 2015-16 both in terms of his point production and role.  With that in mind, it’s hard to see the arbitrator leaning closer to Johansson’s number.  Typically, it’s expected that an award will come in close to the midpoint (in this case, $4.55MM) but this should come in a bit lower than that.  We project a $4.25MM award from the arbitrator if the two sides can’t come to terms on a new deal before then.

Rangers Trade Derick Brassard To Senators For Mika Zibanejad

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Feb 23, 2016; Edmonton, Alberta, CAN; Ottawa Senators forward Mika Zibanejad (93) skates against the Edmonton Oilers at Rexall Place. Mandatory Credit: Perry Nelson-USA TODAY Sports The Ottawa Senators announced that they have acquired center Derick Brassard and a 7th round pick in 2018 from the New York Rangers in exchange for center Mika Zibanejad and a 2nd rounder in 2018.

Last season, Brassard played in 80 games with the Rangers, scoring a career high 27 goals and adding 31 assists while averaging a career best 17:53 per game.  His 58 points ranked second on the team to winger Mats Zuccarello.  He also added four points (1-3-4) in five postseason contests.

The 28 year old Brassard was originally the 6th overall pick in the 2006 NHL Entry Draft by Columbus and was dealt to New York in 2013 as part of a package for Marian Gaborik.  He has played in a total of 563 career NHL games between the Blue Jackets and Rangers, scoring 127 goals and 216 assists.

As for Zibanejad, he departs the only NHL organization he has ever known after being selected sixth overall back in the 2011 draft.  Last season, he posted career highs across the board for the third straight season, recording 21 goals and 31 assists in 81 games.  In 281 career contests with the Sens, he has 64 goals and 87 assists.

[Related: Updated Senators and Rangers depth charts.]

The deal represents a shake up for both teams’ top six forward units.  In Brassard, the Senators acquire a consistent point producer as he has hit 45 points or more in each of the last three seasons and he is also someone who can play a top line role.  Meanwhile with Zibanejad, the Rangers add a considerably younger but not as proven top six forward that also plays more of an all-around game.

TVA Sports’ Renaud Lavoie adds that this deal had been discussed for several weeks but that a $2MM bonus that Brassard received on July 15th needed to be paid by the Rangers for the Sens to do the deal.

Brassard has three years remaining on his contract with a cap hit of $5MM.  However, his salary drops to $3.5MM in each of the final two seasons (while he is only owed $3MM in 2016-17 after the bonus payment) which is important for a budget-conscious Ottawa team.  As for Zibanejad, he has one year left on his bridge deal that he signed last offseason with a cap hit of $2.625MM.  He will be owed a qualifying offer of $3.25MM next summer.

New York now has just shy of $7.5MM in cap space according to Cap Friendly with left winger Chris Kreider, center Kevin Hayes, and prospect Marek Hrivik still to re-sign.  As for Ottawa, they have just over $12.6MM in space per Cap Friendly with defenseman Cody Ceci and arbitration-bound left winger Mike Hoffman still to re-sign.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Snapshots: Bernier, Weber, Benn, Tavares, Patrick

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Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston reports that the Maple Leafs compensation for trading netminder Jonathan Bernier is contingent on a number of scenarios. According to Johnston, the only way the Leafs receive a draft pick is if the Ducks advance to the Stanley Cup Final. Johnston writes that there were four conditions placed on the trade.

The conditions, word for word from Johnston,  are the following:

  • If Bernier starts half of Anaheim’s playoff games next spring and the Ducks lose in the Stanley Cup Final, Toronto receives the Ducks’ 2017 third-round pick. (If Anaheim doesn’t still own that selection, it will transfer its next available third-rounder from a future year.)
  • Should Anaheim trade Bernier to a team that starts him in half of its playoff games next spring and wins the Stanley Cup, Toronto receives the Ducks’ second-round pick.
  • Should Anaheim trade Bernier to a team that starts him in half of its playoff games next spring and loses in the Stanley Cup Final, Toronto receives the Ducks’ third-round pick.

Failure to meet any of these conditions means Toronto misses out on a draft pick.

In other news around the league:

  • The Shea Weber–P.K. Subban trade is still being talked about weeks after the trigger was pulled.  The Hockey News’ Ken Campbell reports that fired analytics guru Matt Pfeffer called Weber “average,” but added that average players are “worth a heck of a lot.”  Pfeffer, according to numerous reports, provided Canadiens management with a detailed report on the potential trade of Weber for Subban. His contract was not renewed. Campbell writes that Pfeffer believes the “eye test” still rules in NHL scouting circles, and that analytics have not been fully embraced throughout the league. Pfeffer also indicates that he holds no ill-will toward the Canadiens because they “gave him a shot.” Pfeffer knows that the maturation of analytics will take time, and that NHL teams use a number of different resources to make the final call on trades.
  • Puck Daddy’s Ryan Lambert writes that Jamie Benn’s rich new deal with the Stars can only mean good things for Islanders captain John Tavares. Lambert reports that Tavares has been the bargain of a lifetime for the Isles in terms of price, and knowing that he does similar, if not better work than Benn, a handsome payday should be in store. Lambert shows that without Tavares, the Isles depth chart gets pretty thin, and that the captain is also two years younger than Benn, only increasing his value. Tavares, he says, would have gotten paid no matter what. But he now has a better bargaining chip after Benn’s $9.5AAV deal.
  • As many eyes turn to the 2017 NHL Draft, projected #1 pick Nolan Patrick is expected to play in training camp despite a sports hernia injury that will keep him out of Canada’s National Junior Development camp. The report from NHL.com says that Patrick should be ready for the Brandon Wheat Kings training camp which is slated for late August. Patrick paced the Wheat Kings to a WHL title, and was named the top playoff performer.

Minor Transactions: 7/18/16

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Here’s where you can find minor transactions for today.

  • New Jersey announced the re-signing of defenseman Reece Scarlett to a one year, two-way deal.  Scarlett will make $600K at the NHL level.  Last season, he played in 60 games with the Devils’ AHL affiliate in Albany, scoring four goals and 22 assists.
  • Aaron Portzline tweets that 2015 first round pick Jack Roslovic has agreed to an entry-level, three-year deal with the Winnipeg Jets. Roslovic also tweeted confirmation of the deal. Roslovic was the 25th overall pick of the Jets in the 2015 draft. However, he enrolled at Miami University and tallied 26 points (10-16) in 36 games. Portzline writes that Roslovic will most likely play for the London Knights in 2016-17, though because he was drafted from the US developmental team, he is eligible to play in the NHL or AHL.
  • The New York Rangers have signed Robin Kovacs to an entry-level deal for three years. Kovacs was a third round pick of the team in 2015. Last season with AIK, Kovacs had 34 points (21-13) in 44 games.
  • Joe Haggerty tweets that the Boston Bruins have announced the hiring of Kevin Dean as the next head coach of AHL affiliate Providence. Mark Divver reports that the job was offered to Dean on Friday. Dean was the assistant coach for Providence under former bench boss Bruce Cassidy, who is now an assistant coach with the Bruins.

Red Wings Notes: Pulkkinen, Athanasiou, Mantha, Glendening

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Detroit Red Wings beat writer Ansar Khan answered questions from readers on a range of topics. Here are some of the highlights from Khan’s column:

  • On the chance of  Teemu Pulkkinen seeing more ice time, Khan writes that the AHL scoring machine, aside from being injured, missed a chance to secure a regular roster spot. A constant cry from several fan blogs and even analysts who use advanced metrics argue that Pulkkinen, Anthony Mantha, Tomas Jurco, and Andreas Athanasiou have not been given the proper ice time or chance to succeed. Khan does acknowledge this claim, but argues that it falls on the individual player to “seize” the moment. With the signings of Thomas Vanek, and Steve Ott, it pushes out a number of bubble players. But Khan states that Ott will not be a reason Mantha doesn’t see more ice time.
  • More on Athanasiou and Mantha: Khan predicts that Mantha will begin the season in Grand Rapids while Athanasiou could get the 2013 Gustav Nyquist treatment that saw the dynamic forward bottled up in Grand Rapids until injuries forced his call up. Khan states that burying Athanasiou in Grand Rapids would be a mistake should he show the same speed and offensive prowess he did during the latter half of last season.
  • On Luke Glendening’s new contract: Khan claims that the feedback he has received from fans has been mixed regarding Glendening’s new four-year, $7.2MM deal. Many fans bristled at the long term, and higher dollar amount for Glendening. Carolyn Wilke created a number of graphs that shows the value of players through a number of metrics. Wilke’s quantitative work reveals the irritation that many Wings fans had with the signing. Khan argues that Glendening “brings more to the table than people give him credit for.” While he points out that former coach Mike Babcock, current coach Jeff Blashill, and general manager Ken Holland like his work, the Red Wings are known for their loyalty to certain players.–often to a fault.
  • On trades and Jimmy Vesey: Khan indicates that the Red Wings, like every other organization except Nashville, will certainly be in on pursuing Hobey Baker winner and free agent Jimmy Vesey. Additionally, he says to watch Colorado’s Tyson Barrie as another possible defensive target should the Avalanche make him available via trade.

 

Week In Review: 7/11/16 – 7/17-16

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While the UFA and trade markets have dried up, there was plenty of activity as teams looked to re-sign their players.  Here is a look back at the week that was.

Contract Extension

Jamie Benn (Stars) – Eight years, $76MM, commencing in 2017-18

Notable Re-Signings

Korbinian Holzer (Ducks) – One year, $700K
Shane Doan (Coyotes) – One year, $4MM guaranteed, up to $5.5MM with incentives
Victor Rask (Hurricanes) – Six years, $24MM
Justin Schultz (Penguins) – One year, $1.4MM
Teemu Pulkkinen (Red Wings) – One year, $812K
J.T. Miller (Rangers) – Two years, $5.5MM
Colin Miller (Bruins) – Two years, $2MM
Luke Glendening (Red Wings) – Four years, $7.2MM
Adam Lowry (Jets) – Two years, $2.25MM
Marcus Foligno (Sabres) – One year, $2.25MM
Jaden Schwartz (Blues) – Five years, $26.75MM
Alex Killorn (Lightning) – Seven years, $31.15MM

Notable Hirings

George McPhee (Las Vegas) – General Manager
Nolan Pratt (Avalanche) – Assistant Coach

Key Injury

Jamie Benn (Stars) – Core muscle, out for six weeks

Notable Prospect Signings

Jesse Puljujarvi (Oilers) – Three year entry-level deal
Alexander Nylander (Sabres) – Three year entry-level deal

AHL Affiliation Change

Canadiens (St. John’s to Laval, effective in 2017-18)

Snapshots: Tootoo, Lightning, Johansson, Staubitz

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Blackhawks general manager Stan Bowman had some help when it came to recruiting winger Jordin Tootoo to sign with Chicago, writes Tracey Myers of CSN Chicago.  Defensemen Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook both reached out to the 33 year old who signed a one year, $750K deal earlier this month.  All three players live and skate together in Kelowna in the offseason.

Tootoo will likely be counted on to replace some of the grit vacated by the trade of Andrew Shaw to Montreal and Bryan Bickell’s deal to Carolina last month.

More news and notes from around the hockey world:

  • Tampa Bay GM Steve Yzerman acknowledged to Joe Smith of the Tampa Bay Times that the team will likely have to make a trade later this summer in order to accommodate their remaining restricted free agents. The Lightning have just over $8.5MM in cap space per Cap Friendly but still have RW Nikita Kucherov, C Vladislav Namestnikov, and D Nikita Nesterov to re-sign.  It’s likely that the team will look to sign Kucherov to a long-term deal as they have with Steven Stamkos, Victor Hedman, Andrei Vasilevskiy, and, earlier today, Alex Killorn.  Of their three remaining RFA’s, only Namestnikov is arbitration-bound with a hearing set for July 29th if a deal isn’t reached by then.
  • Barring a last minute deal, it appears as if the Capitals and center Marcus Johansson are heading for arbitration on July 20th, writes Isabelle Khurshudyan of the Washington Post. If it does go to a hearing, he would be the first player in a decade to go to arbitration twice.  Johansson’s agent J.P. Barry acknowledged that they have tried several times to get a long-term deal done but as of yet have not been able to agree to terms.  Barry also noted they plan to talk again after pre-hearing briefs are exchanged.  Johansson was awarded $3.75MM via arbitration last offseason and set career highs in goals (20), assists (27), and points (47) in 2015-16.
  • Former NHL enforcer Brad Staubitz has been named an Assistant Coach of the OHL’s Sarnia Sting, the junior team announced. The 31 year old retired prior to last season.  In 230 career NHL games between San Jose, Minnesota, Montreal, and Anaheim, Staubitz recorded 10 goals and 11 assists to go along with 521 penalty minutes.

Minor Transactions: 7/17/16

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Here is where we’ll keep track of today’s minor transactions:

  • The Sabres announced the re-signings of center Daniel Catenacci and goaltender Jason Kasdorf to two-way contracts.  Financial terms of Catenacci’s deal were not disclosed while Kasdorf receives a two year pact with a cap hit of $612K according to General Fanager.  Catenacci played in 11 games with Buffalo last season, being held pointless while he added 12 goals and 12 assists in 50 AHL games.  Kasdorf made one NHL start late last year after being signed out of R.P.I., allowing four goals on 30 shots.  Both players are likely bound for AHL Rochester in 2016-17.
  • Veteran NHL forward Tomas Kopecky is a late entrant into the free agent market after his Czech team announced that they have mutually terminated his contract. (Link in Czech.)  Kopecky recorded 18 points in 38 games for HC Trinec last season.  The 34 year old is a veteran of 578 career NHL games with Detroit, Chicago, and Florida.  He has 68 goals and 106 assists in his big league career.
  • Forward Alexandre Mallet, who was a second round pick of Vancouver back in 2012 (57th overall), has signed a one year deal with HC Dynamo Pardubice, the Czech team announced. (Link in Czech.)  Mallet spent all of 2015-16 with Kalamazoo of the ECHL, playing in 72 games while collecting 57 points.  The Islanders acquired Mallet from the Canucks back in 2014 but declined to tender him a qualifying offer last month.
  • Defenseman Mike Moore has signed a one year contract with the Fischtown Penguins of the DEL, the German league team announced. (Link in German.)  Moore spent the last two seasons on two-way deals with Washington but didn’t get into any NHL action.  Last season, with the Caps’ AHL affiliate in Hershey, he played in 48 games, collecting ten points.  Moore has six career NHL games under his belt, all with San Jose.

Latest On The Bruins

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While Boston GM Don Sweeney would be okay with going into the season with the roster the team currently has, he noted to Steve Conroy of the Boston Herald that he is still exploring opportunities to add to the current team.  Sweeney noted that the team still has plenty of cap flexibility (about $6.7MM according to Cap Friendly) by design but that he also values that flexibility moving into next couple of years as well which could affect their willingness to take on a longer-term contract, either in free agency or via trade.

More on the Bruins:

  • Also in Conroy’s piece, the Bruins will name their new AHL head coach next week. Kevin Dean is believed to be the favorite to get the job in Providence while Keith McCambridge is also known to have interviewed.
  • Within the span of just over a year, Boston has dramatically revamped and improved their prospect depth on the back end, writes WEEI’s DJ Bean. Sweeney mentioned that it had been an area of focus at the draft and the team has added five blueliners in the first two rounds of the last two drafts.  Of those players, Bean suggests Brandon Carlo (37th overall in 2015) is closest to being NHL ready but with seven defensemen on one-way deals, there may not be a spot for him to step in right away.  With just seven games of pro experience under his belt though, a trip to Providence would certainly be beneficial for the 19 year old.
  • Prospect winger Jimmy Vesey, who is set to become an unrestricted free agent on August 15th, told CSNNE’s Joe Haggerty that Boston is definitely on the short list of teams he plans to talk to. The 23 year old Massachusetts native grew up a Bruins fan and it has long been speculated that Boston should be considered a front runner to secure his services.
  • In a separate column from Haggerty, Sweeney noted that both David Krejci and Torey Krug are both on track in their recovery schedules from offseason surgery.  Krug had shoulder surgery on April 21st with an expected recovery of six months which could cause him to miss a handful of games to start next season while Krejci had hip surgery four days later with a five month timetable.

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