Can The Sabres Afford To Retain Alex Tuch?

The Buffalo Sabres broke a 14-year playoff drought this season in spectacular fashion and were within a shot of reaching the Eastern Conference Finals when Alex Newhook of the Montreal Canadiens broke their hearts in overtime. That one shot has no doubt haunted Sabres fans since the loss, and it was a frustrating defeat for a team whose top players went cold when the team needed them most. One of those players was forward Alex Tuch, who failed to score in the second round, when Montreal’s margin of victory was about as small as it could be. Despite Tuch’s lack of production, the pending UFA isn’t likely to see his stock fall too far as he approaches the open market on July 1, and that is a problem for the Sabres, who are facing a cap crunch and may not have the room to keep Tuch and his potential $10MM-$11MM cap hit.

Tuch is an interesting player, as he was the centerpiece of the return for Jack Eichel when the Sabres shipped him out to the Vegas Golden Knights. He is also a local, hailing from Syracuse, New York, and he has been one of the best deals in the NHL, collecting just $4.75MM annually while putting up 139 goals and 170 assists in 360 games as a member of the Sabres. It’s been a mutually beneficial relationship thus far, but it’s hard to say whether that will continue, especially if Tuch’s play starts to fall off in his 30s while he’s making north of $10MM annually.

According to PuckPedia, the Sabres currently have just shy of $12MM in available cap space with 22 players signed. At first glance, it seems straightforward that they could fit Tuch under the cap, but that’s where the problems start to emerge. Aside from Tuch being unsigned, the other two unsigned forwards are Zach Benson and Peyton Krebs, both of whom are due for large raises. Using AFP Analytics projections, Benson would be looking at a short-term deal around $4.2MM per season, while Krebs should fall in the $3.5MM range. That’s a $7.7MM expenditure if the Sabres go short-term on Benson, but if they go long-term, it might be closer to $7MM annually just for Benson. Couple those numbers with a potential $10MM cap hit for Tuch, and the Sabres would blow past the salary cap pretty quickly. That is without factoring in defenseman Michael Kesselring’s contract, which will also likely top $4MM annually. Nor does it consider the future contracts that will need to be signed with Noah Ostlund, Jiri Kulich and Konsta Helenius.

The Sabres have substantial maneuvering to do if they want to welcome Tuch back into the fold. But do they want to trade away foundational young players just to accommodate a veteran forward on the wrong side of 30 whose best days will soon be behind him? It’s a potential $70MM-$80MM question the Sabres will need to answer, and one that could dictate how the next 5-10 years play out in Buffalo.

The Sabres have to consider Bowen Byram’s future as well, since he is just 13 months away from becoming a UFA and will command a healthy payday on his next deal. But even moving the 24-year-old likely wouldn’t get the Sabres back under the cap if they sign Tuch and the other aforementioned players, meaning moving Byram alone would be the first of multiple moves. The Sabres already have Rasmus Dahlin and Owen Power on the left side of their defense and may not need to keep Byram in the fold. So far, reports say Byram likes Buffalo, and they plan to meet this summer to discuss an extension.

So, what can the Sabres do to retain the talent they want to keep and stay under the salary cap? Probably the easiest move in the short term is to trade forward Jason Zucker and his $4.75MM cap hit. Zucker has been a good pro for a long time, but with one year left on his deal and a limited no-trade clause, he is a straightforward move to stockpile a future asset and clear part of the books. But he can’t be the only move Buffalo makes to shed salary, and the move beyond Zucker will likely need to be a hard one, sending away an important player. That’s not to minimize Zucker’s contributions, as he is one of the few veterans on the Sabres, but at 34 years old, he doesn’t have many years left in the NHL, and Buffalo might have to trade a younger asset to clear space if they want to sign Tuch.

That brings us back to the question at the outset of the article: Can the Sabres afford to keep Tuch? On paper, it’s possible. With cap maneuvering, such as trading Zucker and Byram, it’s very possible. But for the long-term health of the Sabres, they might need to let Tuch walk and be happy that he had a run in Buffalo that ended with them snapping a long playoff drought. Players rarely get better in their 30s, and it’s a guessing game when the decline begins. The NHL is littered with cautionary tales of teams signing players in their 30s to expensive contracts in unrestricted free agency, and the Sabres would be wise to sit out the Tuch negotiations and let another NHL club sign a contract that could one day end in a buyout.