PHR Playoff Primer: Florida Panthers vs Vegas Golden Knights
With the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs now underway, PHR makes its first foray into playoff series analysis with our 2023 Playoff Primers. Where does each team stand in their series, and what storylines could dominate on and off the ice? Our Stanley Cup Playoffs coverage concludes with the Stanley Cup Finals matchup between the Florida Panthers and Vegas Golden Knights.
Before the 2023 Stanley Cup Finals get underway, we know that one franchise will win its first Stanley Cup in franchise history. The last time this was true was back in the 2018 Stanley Cup Final, as the Washington Capitals defeated the Vegas Golden Knights in five games.
For the Golden Knights, this will be their second Cup Final in six years, already becoming one of the most successful expansion franchises in the history of the league. Going on a Cinderella run for seemingly the entire year of their inception, the current iteration of the team has much more star talent than their last Finals appearance.
The Florida Panthers, a year removed from winning the President’s Trophy as the top regular season team, have mirrored the Golden Knights’ Cinderella run from six years ago. The last team to find a spot in the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs, the Panthers knocked off this year’s President’s Trophy winner, the Boston Bruins, followed up by knocking off the Toronto Maple Leafs and Carolina Hurricanes.
Regular Season Performance
Vegas: 51-22-9, 111 points, +43 goal differential
Florida: 42-32-8, 92 points, +17 goal differential
Head-To-Head
January 12, 2023: Vegas 4, Florida 2
March 7, 2023: Florida 2, Vegas 1
Season series tied 1-1-0
Team Storylines
In terms of offense, there are names that stick out immediately for both teams: Matthew Tkachuk for the Panthers, and Jack Eichel for Vegas. In 16 games for Tkachuk, the new pride of Florida has scored nine goals and 12 assists, including a whopping four game-winners. Already having four years of playoff experience under his belt with the Calgary Flames, this has been far and above Tkachuk’s best performance after the regular season.
Unlike Tkachuk, getting his first taste of NHL playoff action after many years spent with the rebuilding Buffalo Sabres, Eichel has shown exactly why he would have been a first-overall selection in any draft not featuring Connor McDavid. In 17 games played this postseason, Eichel has scored six goals and 12 assists, showing incredible prowess on Vegas’ powerplay.
Aside from their primary offensive weapon in Tkachuk, Florida has four other players that have scored over 10 points in this year’s playoffs, including Carter Verhaeghe, Aleksander Barkov, Sam Reinhart, and Sam Bennett. Vegas, on the other hand, has a total of six players that have scored over 10 points, including Jonathan Marchessault, Ivan Barbashev, Mark Stone, William Karlsson, Chandler Stephenson, and Reilly Smith.
On defense, Florida’s primary defenseman in this year’s playoffs, and throughout much of the year has been Brandon Montour. Having a complete breakout year in the regular season, scoring 73 points in 80 games, Montour has kept up his excellent play throughout the playoffs. In 16 games, he’s scored six goals and three assists while averaging almost 28 minutes a night for the Panthers. If having a defenseman of Montour’s status wasn’t good enough, Florida also has the first-overall selection of the 2014 NHL Draft, Aaron Ekblad, in the midst, also carrying the ability to make big plays and eat steady minutes on the back end.
Clearly the best defenseman in Vegas, and arguably the top defenseman in this year’s playoffs, is Alex Pietrangelo. Although receiving a one-game suspension after slashing Edmonton Oilers’ all-star Leon Draisaitl, Pietrangelo has scored nine points in 16 games, averaging around 24 minutes a night for the Golden Knights. Carrying a rating of +8 up to this point, Pietrangelo has also been a fantastic powerplay quarterback for Vegas.
In net, as much as fans might think there is a larger separation between the two in terms of name recognition, both Sergei Bobrovsky and Adin Hill are playing some of the best goaltending of their individual careers. In 14 games for Bobrovsky, he has managed an 11-2-0 record, carrying a .935 SV% and a 2.21 GAA. Surprisingly, posting slightly better numbers than Bobrovsky, Hill has a 7-3-0 record in 11 games played, posting a .937 SV% and a 2.07 GAA.
Prediction
An often-used trope is especially good when it’s true, and in terms of this series, it could go either way. Both team’s are leaning on their star players for scoring, but are also receiving plenty of depth scoring as well. Both teams have minute-munching defensemen that can lead on both sides of the puck, and both teams have goaltenders that are playing superbly between the pipes.
Although it’s difficult to find any separation between these two teams, the one big distinction would be the goal differential, where Vegas holds a +10 advantage over the Panthers in that category. However, goal differential or not, the Panthers also hold a very slight advantage in winning percentage. Vegas was able to shut down McDavid, Draisaitl, and Roope Hintz, while Florida was table to silence Sebastian Aho, Mitch Marner, and David Pastrnak.
In the end, much like we’ve seen in past Stanley Cup Finals, the hockey gods will always have their way, and the more they win, the more it seems fate is on the side of the Panthers this year. Tkachuk has held the weight of his performance, and as the emotional leader above his shoulders for Florida throughout the playoffs, and look for him to replace that weight with 34.5 pounds of silver and nickel when all is said and done.
Prediction: Panthers win in seven games.
Minor Transactions: 6/3/23
Free agency is now less than a month away and activity on the transaction front is starting to pick up around the hockey world. With that in mind, we’ll keep track of some of the minor moves of some interest here.
- Russian winger Konstantin Okulov has again opted not to pursue an NHL contract, instead signing a two-year extension with CSKA Moscow, the KHL team announced. The 28-year-old has drawn NHL interest on several occasions and likely would have had a fairly strong market again this year after notching 54 points in 60 games this season, putting him tied for tenth in league scoring. If he continues to play at that level over the next two years, there could still be some NHL interest for him in 2025.
- While Carl Lindbom signed his entry-level deal with Vegas back on Thursday, he won’t be debuting in North America next season. Instead, Farjestad of the SHL announced that Vegas has loaned the 20-year-old to them for the 2023-24 campaign. Lindbom had strong numbers in Sweden’s second-tier Allsvenskan this season, posting a 1.86 GAA with a .930 SV% in 36 games and will now get a chance to try his hand at Sweden’s top level.
- Former Canadiens center Lukas Vejdemo has signed a four-year deal with SHL Leksand, per a team release. The 27-year-old missed most of last season after suffering a hamstring injury late in the 2021-22 campaign but caught on late with Djurgarden of the second-tier Allsvenskan late in the season. The term of this deal makes it unlikely that Vejdemo – who has two goals in 13 career NHL games – will get another opportunity in North America.
This post will be updated throughout the day.
Vegas Golden Knights Sign Carl Lindbom
The Vegas Golden Knights have inked goalie Carl Lindbom to a three-year, entry-level contract, says the Las Vegas Sun’s Danny Webster. PuckPedia reports the deal carries an $840,000 cap hit.
Lindbom, 20, slipped all the way to 222nd overall in the 2021 Draft after he was limited to just eight junior games in the Swedish J20 Nationell season, posting a subpar .890 save percentage in the process. It’s been a sharp rise for Lindbom since then, and his numbers suggest a budding goalie with a potential NHL future.
In fact, Lindbom, who had his birthday just days ago, has gone from draft blip to professional world-beater in Sweden’s second-tier league, the Allsvenskan. Along with posting two shutouts in seven appearances for Sweden at the 2023 Men’s World Juniors, Lindbom took home Rookie of the Year and Goalie of the Year honors with the Allsvenksan’s Djurgårdens IF.
He posted a staggering .930 save percentage, seven shutouts, a 1.86 goals-against average, and a 25-11-0 record in 36 games, adding a .941 save percentage in five SHL qualification matches. Unfortunately, an injury in his fifth game knocked him out for the rest of the postseason, and Djurgården would lose to MoDo in the Allsvenskan championship series, keeping them in the second-tier league for 2023-24.
Lindbom is likely destined for the AHL’s Henderson Silver Knights next season, where he’ll gun for a starting role with 24-year-old Jiri Patera, who made his NHL debut for the Golden Knights in 2022-23.
Evening Notes: Dadonov, Luostarinen, Senators
Dallas Stars radio host Owen Newkirk has confirmed that Dallas Stars forward Evgenii Dadonov will miss game 6 tonight against the Vegas Golden Knights. Dadonov continues to be sidelined by a lower body injury and hasn’t dressed for the Stars since suffering the injury in a game 3 loss. Dadonov fell awkwardly after colliding with teammate Roope Hintz in the first period of that game and didn’t return. Very little is known about the injury other than Pete DeBoer telling the media that Dadonov would be out longer than day-to-day but not for the rest of the playoffs.
Dallas will get some good news as they look to extend their Western Conference Finals series to a seventh and deciding game. Captain Jamie Benn will return to the lineup after serving his two-game suspension for his cross check on Mark Stone.
In other evening news:
David Dwork of The Hockey News tweeted that Florida Panthers head coach Paul Maurice is confident that the club will have center Eetu Luostarinen in the lineup when they take to the ice for game 1 of the Stanley Cup final. Luostarinen was injured in game 4 of the conference finals against the Carolina Hurricanes but isn’t expected to miss any games. The 24-year-old set career highs this season with 17 goals and 26 assists in 82 games and has been one of the Panthers top defensive forwards.
Bruce Garrioch of Postmedia is reporting that league sources believe that there will be an agreement in place for the sale of the Ottawa Senators by this Friday. Garrioch quotes a league source that was told one of the bidders believes that Steve Apostolopoulos has the highest bid right now. Once a winning bid is selected and an agreement is made, the next step would be to have the deal be approved by the NHL’s executive committee. This step could drag the process into the summer making for an interesting draft and free agency period for Senators management. This comes at a crucial time for the on-ice product as the clubs young core will be looking to take that next step come the 2023-24 season.
Snapshots: Lehner, Hurricanes, Development Camp
In a piece from Vegas Hockey Now, Dan Kingerski raises an interesting question about the future between the pipes for the Vegas Golden Knights next season. Although it would be more financially feasible for the Golden Knights to retain Robin Lehner on LTIR, Kingerski asserts that Vegas may be better off buying out Lehner’s contract this summer.
The main point behind his reasoning is that with netminder Adin Hill eventually hitting the unrestricted free-agent market this offseason, having the cap space this summer to retain Hill may be Lehner’s undoing in Vegas. If the Golden Knights were to buy out the remaining 2-year, $10MM remaining on Lehner’s contract, Vegas would be hit with a $750K cap penalty next season, $2.25MM the following year, and $1.75 the next two years.
Obviously, the injury concerns surrounding Lehner are well known, as he missed the entirety of the 2022-23 regular season, and remains out during the Golden Knight’s playoff run. In his two full seasons in Vegas (subtracting the three regular-season games he played during the 2019-20 season following his trade from the Chicago Blackhawks), Lehner has posted a 36-21-4 record in 63 games played, garnering a .909 SV% and a 2.66 GAA.
Unfortunately, although the win record and GAA have both been positive for Lehner, the SV% has left a lot to be desired. On the other hand, Hill has been well above average since being acquired from the San Jose Sharks in late August of last year. In 27 games played for the Golden Knights this year, Hill posted a 16-7-1 record, accruing a .915 SV% and a 2.45 GAA. As both he, Jonathan Quick, and Laurent Brossoit enter unrestricted free agency this year, the potential Western Conference champions will have difficult choices to make in net this offseason.
Other snapshots:
- In an opinion piece from Ken Wiebe of Sportsnet, a hypothetical question is raised as to whether or not the Carolina Hurricanes and Winnipeg Jets would make an ideal trade fit this offseason. With plenty of buzz surrounding the potential rebuild of the Jets this summer, Wiebe questions whether Mark Scheifele and Connor Hellebuyck could be potential acquisitions for the Hurricanes. Both players will be pending unrestricted free agents after next season, and both players fit organizational needs at the moment. Martin Necas being the only true top-six center in the organization, and both Frederik Andersen and Antti Raanta becoming UFA’s this summer, the Hurricanes could look to poach the Jets for resources.
- Mark Divver of the NHL reports that both Eric Parker and Ben Wozney from Bowling Green State University have received development camp invites from the Boston Bruins and Seattle Kraken, respectively. Parker appeared in eight games for Bowling Green, scoring one goal and three assists, as Wozney scored two goals and 13 assists over 36 games for the Falcons.
Afternoon News: Capitals, Howden, Maple Leafs
Tarik El-Bashir of The Athletic wrote a piece today that highlighted the nine forwards he believes would fit what the Washington Capitals are looking for this offseason. El-Bashir begins the piece by shining a light on the salary cap crunch that will leave the Capitals with around $5MM in cap space this summer. That leaves Washington with precious little space to work with, however El-Bashir quickly points out that Evgeny Kuznetsov and Anthony Mantha are both trade options that are finding their names on a lot of trade boards.
El-Bashir feels that Washington won’t target players over 30 given their age and Washington’s precarious cap situation. He lists Tyler Bertuzzi, Connor Brown, Andreas Athanasiou, Ivan Barbashev, Michael Bunting, J.T. Compher, Max Domi, Pierre Engvall, and Evan Rodrigues as the likely targets for Capitals general manager Brian MacLellan. Washington has an extensive group of forwards signed to contracts for next season but have a glaring hole on the right wing. Given the cost and the need I would likely put current Capitals forward Connor Brown near the top of the list. Brown was acquired from the Ottawa Senators for a second round pick last summer but only dressed in four games before suffering a season ending ACL injury in his right knee.
In other afternoon notes:
- Jesse Granger of The Athletic is reporting that Brett Howden of the Vegas Golden Knights was on the ice for the team’s morning skate ahead of their game 4 matchup against the Dallas Stars. Granger reported yesterday that the 25-year-old center had tweaked a lower body injury in game 2 and tried to play through it but couldn’t. Howden missed game 3 and given that he’s seen a lot of time in Vegas’ top-6 as of late, his return would be a welcome boost if he can dress tonight. Howden had a pedestrian regular season with 13 points in 54 games, however in these playoffs he has three goals and three assists in 14 games. Vegas has a chance to sweep Dallas this evening.
- Kevin McGran of the Toronto Star wrote an opinion piece today about why former Calgary Flames general manager Brad Treliving checks so many of the boxes that Brendan Shanahan and the Toronto Maple Leafs would be looking to tick. McGran highlights Treliving’s experience in Calgary working in a collaborative environment with former president of hockey ops Brian Burke. Toronto’s future general manager would be tied to Shanahan as well as the board of MLSE, it is a job that is different from some other NHL clubs, however Treliving has worked within a similar structure. McGran also cites Treliving’s penchant for having the guts to make bold moves, Treliving spent last summer overhauling the Calgary Flames out of necessity by trading Matthew Tkachuk to Florida for Jonathan Huberdeau and MacKenzie Weegar as well as signing Nazem Kadri as a free agent.
Injury Updates: Barkov, Dadonov, Howden
Florida Panthers team captain Aleksander Barkov has been given the green light to hit the ice in tonight’s potentially series-clinching Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Final against the Carolina Hurricanes, head coach Paul Maurice said today. Barkov’s status update comes after he missed most of Florida’s 1-0 Game 3 win, sustaining a lower-body injury on a first-period hit from Hurricanes forward Jack Drury.
The 27-year-old Finnish center’s leadership and two-way acumen have proven invaluable to the team’s success, displayed most recently by a highlight-reel goal in Game 2. His four goals and eight assists for 12 points are third on the team in playoff scoring behind linemate Carter Verhaeghe and Hart Trophy finalist Matthew Tkachuk.
The 2021 Selke Trophy winner will log heavy minutes tonight as he looks to advance to the first Stanley Cup Final of his career.
- Dallas Stars forward Evgenii Dadonov is listed as doubtful for tomorrow’s must-win Game 4, according to head coach Peter DeBoer. Dadonov left the game after sustaining a lower-body injury in a collision with teammate Roope Hintz while Dallas was on a power play and did not return. If captain Jamie Benn is suspended for his cross-check on Vegas Golden Knights captain Mark Stone today, Stars forward Fredrik Olofsson would draw into the lineup and make his playoff debut if Dadonov can’t go.
- On the other side of the Dallas/Vegas coin, Golden Knights head coach Bruce Cassidy also said today that forward Brett Howden‘s status for tomorrow is uncertain. Howden, who’s been elevated to a top-six role and has six points in 14 games, aggravated a lower-body injury yesterday and didn’t play in the third period. Either Michael Amadio or Phil Kessel could return to the lineup if he’s unable to go.
Max Domi Fined For Slashing Mark Stone
The fallout continues from last night’s heated Game 3 of the Western Conference Final between the Vegas Golden Knights and Dallas Stars. The NHL Department of Player Safety announced this morning that Stars forward Max Domi has been fined $5,000, the maximum allowable under the CBA, for slashing Golden Knights captain Mark Stone.
Just hours earlier, DoPS said Stars captain Jamie Benn would have a hearing today for cross-checking Stone earlier in the game.
This is Domi’s third fine in his career, and his first stemming from a playoff incident. In 2016, while a member of the Arizona Coyotes, Domi lost $4,641 as part of an automatic one-game suspension handed out for instigating a fight within the final five minutes of regulation. While with the Columbus Blue Jackets in 2021, he was fined $5,000 for unsportsmanlike conduct.
Referees did not penalize Domi for the slash, although he was given a roughing, cross-checking, and misconduct penalty stemming from an altercation with Golden Knights defenseman Nicolas Hague.
With Benn facing suspension and likely unavailable for Game 4, Domi is a candidate to receive more minutes in a do-or-die matchup Thursday at home. The 28-year-old trade deadline acquisition has 11 points in 16 playoff games with the Stars, tied with Benn for fourth on the team.
Injury Notes: Stephenson, Hakanpää, Hamilton
The Vegas Golden Knights may face a slight hiccup tonight when they try and take a 3-0 stranglehold in the Western Conference Final. Center Chandler Stephenson missed this morning’s practice with an illness, although head coach Bruce Cassidy still expects him to be available tonight.
Stephenson sits third on the team in scoring with 13 points in 13 games so far in the postseason, and he’s been an invaluable secondary scorer for Vegas over the past number of seasons. His seven goals are tied for the team lead with William Karlsson, and he’s averaging over 18 minutes per game. If Stephenson isn’t well enough to play tonight, expect the 27-year-old Michael Amadio to draw back into the lineup. He’s been scratched from the team’s last four games to make way for Teddy Blueger to enter the lineup.
- Dallas Stars defenseman Jani Hakanpää took pregame skate this morning and is expected to play in tonight’s Game 3 against Vegas, per Stars radio analyst Bruce LeVine. The 31-year-old defensive stalwart missed the last three games with an upper-body injury. The 6-foot-7 Finn contributed a career-high 16 points and +18 rating during the regular season.
- New Jersey Devils defenseman Dougie Hamilton wasn’t 100% when his team bowed out to the Carolina Hurricanes in the Second Round, and today, The Fourth Period’s James Nichols reports Hamilton had surgery to repair his right wrist. Per Nichols, Hamilton is expected to be ready for the start of the 2023-24 season, although he doesn’t offer clarity on whether this affects his availability for training camp. The 29-year-old is entering the third season of a seven-year, $63MM contract signed with the Devils in 2021.
Snapshots: Reynolds, Andersen, Vegas Goalies
Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch is reporting this morning that actor Ryan Reynolds has officially pulled himself out of the running to own a stake in the Ottawa Senators, per sources. Reynolds, who had aligned himself with Canadian developer Chris Bratty and the Remington Group, intended not to join other bids at the beginning of the sale process and has held true to his initial position, despite offers from groups still in the running to join their bids.
Garrioch also reports that Michael Andlauer, a minority owner of the Montreal Canadiens and one of the four bidders remaining under consideration to purchase the team, remains “confident” he’ll be the party anointed by the team and the league as Ottawa’s next owner. Two other bids were also receiving “serious consideration,” per Garrioch, but one name notably not mentioned was Neko Sparks, the Los Angeles-based investor whose bid includes backing from Snoop Dogg and the Kitigan Zibi Anishinābeg First Nations group.
- After he was given the night off for Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Final, thanks to Game 1 stretching well into the fourth overtime period, the Carolina Hurricanes are returning to Frederik Andersen tonight, per TVA’s Renaud Lavoie, to help them climb out of a 2-0 series hole against the Florida Panthers. His .936 save percentage leads all netminders in the playoffs, but unfortunately, the only goalie who’s played better than he, Sergei Bobrovsky, is in the opposing crease.
- Laurent Brossoit and Logan Thompson will remain out of the Vegas Golden Knights goalie rotation for Games 3 and 4 of the Western Conference Final, as head coach Bruce Cassidy today confirmed they won’t travel with the team to Dallas. While Brossoit wasn’t expected to play at all in this series, Thompson is working his way back from a lower-body injury that’s cost him the last few months and was potentially an option for the team. Adin Hill, who now boasts a .930 save percentage in seven playoff appearances, will continue in the starter’s net for Vegas.